DAYS 1-5 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

A blanket of broken stratus clouds along the South Coast to the MA South Shore and more broken to scattered stratus closer to the I-90 belt will erode early to mid morning, revealing a hazy sun. Where there are no clouds present, the hazy sun that was visible from the start of the day will remain so, with the “haze” once again a mix of wildfire smoke near the surface from Nova Scotia (moved in from the east) and aloft from western Canada (having been moving in from the west and north). Today warms up a little over yesterday which still held some ocean-modified air in more noticeable form. This warm up will continue Thursday into Friday as high pressure sinks to the south and delivers more south to west wind across the region. This, of course, is a direct ocean breeze for the South Coast which will be coolest those two days. The next thing to figure out is the timing of a strong back-door cold front dropping south southwestward via the Gulf of Maine to cross the region late Friday to early Saturday. Current call is late evening to early overnight (10PM-2AM) window for the front to cross the region. This timing is late for the front to have a direct impact on shower and thunderstorm chances for Friday afternoon, so for now my leaning is to go for just isolated shower and thunderstorm activity from daytime heating and slightly increased humidity on Friday afternoon, with a general band of showers coming through Friday evening to early overnight with the front. Behind the front should come a period of stratus clouds and patchy drizzle, along with a few lingering shower that can develop over the top of the shallow wedge of cool air with some lingering warm air above it, before the atmosphere stabilizes with the northeasterly air flow through the balance of Saturday. Enough dry air should work down from the northeast to at least partially clear the cloud cover for a sun/cloud mix for midday on, but will fine-tune that as it can be a difficult detail to forecast a few days out. This trend continues into Sunday but as this happens we’ll be seeing the arrival of upper level low pressure from the east (retrogression of features as mentioned in previous discussions). This brings in colder air above and despite the drier air working in, there can be enough moisture for solar heating to trigger the development of diurnal fair-weather clouds, so we’ll probably not have a totally sunny Sunday either. We will be rain-free though, and a little less chilly than Saturday but still cooler than normal for early June.

TODAY: Lots of clouds early to mid morning MA South Shore to South Coast, otherwise smoke-filtered sun. Highs 77-84 except 70-77 South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Additional areas of smoke. Some clouds re-develop mainly south of I-90. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90 except 75-82 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91, cooler Cape Cod and a few other coastal locations. Wind W up to 10 MPH can still yield to local coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely evening to the north of I-90 and mostly overnight from I-90 belt south. Areas of drizzle and light fog overnight especially eastern coastal locations. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NE and increasing to 10-20 MPH from northeast to southwest beginning late evening.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Areas of drizzle favoring eastern locations early in the day. Chance of a few showers favoring the South Coast region in the morning. Highs 58-65, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts through midday.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 5-9)

An upper level trough will dominate the weather pattern. This will bring some episodes of scattered showers but right now thinking no big rain events and definitely no early heat with temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 10-14)

A broad upper level trough is expected to be in control with a few episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms and no significant heat. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

This penultimate day of May will be a nice one with plenty of sun, but we’ll have to contend with 3 solar filters, the first being some high clouds drifting in from the north, the second being high altitude wildfire smoke from western Canada, and the third will be a plume of lower altitude smoke from a wildlfire in southern Nova Scotia, and this third one may be mixed close enough to ground level to detect by sense of smell as well as reduced surface visibility. Some of each of these may hang around into Wednesday, otherwise another very nice day with a warm-up. That warming trend will continue into late week as high pressure slips to the south, with the feel of summer in place by Thursday and into Friday. Still looking for a cold front to drop through the region north to south with late Friday timing, preceded by a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening, and followed by another cool-down to start next weekend.

TODAY: Filtered sun – high clouds and especially smoke at multiple levels. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear though smoke may linger. Lows 47-54. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Additional smoke around. Highs 77-84, coolest South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon and/or evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 83-90, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers early. Patchy fog forming. Lows 52-59. Wind variable shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower possible South Coast early in the day. Highs 62-69, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 4-8)

High pressure brings fair weather to the region with cool temps June 4. Watching for a switch to more unsettled weather with episodes of showers early to middle portion of next week with upper level low pressure in control and a couple disturbances and surface low pressures in the region, with temperatures remaining near to mostly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 9-13)

A broad upper level trough is expected to be in control with a few episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms and no significant heat.

Remembering those who served and did not make it home. May their sacrifice not be in vain and may they forever rest in peace.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

On this Memorial Day with many parades / ceremonies scheduled, the weather will be favorable with dry conditions and much cooler air in place than what we saw yesterday. This is due to a back-door cold front that passed by overnight, introducing a northeasterly air flow. If there is one “problem” today, it is that the wind will be rather gusty this morning, which can make it challenging for some of the activities, like carrying/holding a flag, for example. Use caution with any open flames today too, as it has been dry and even post leaf-out our fire danger is still somewhat above normal. High pressure will continue to control our weather through the middle of the coming week, and after today’s cool northeasterly air flow, the high will gradually sink southward and the temperature trend will be up, slightly at first, then more noticeably as we head through midweek into late week. Thursday-Friday bring back the pre-summer heat, and by Friday you’ll finally feel a little up-tick in the humidity after several dry days before it. The only rain threat this week comes later Friday, based on current expecting timing of an approaching cold front. This may have an impact on many area high school graduations that take place on Friday evening, so that will be something to keep an eye on as there will be a shot at showers and thunderstorms with the approach of that front. We’ll still also see some Canadian wildfire smoke in our sky at times this week, giving it a hazy appearance. In addition, a large fire burning in southern Nova Scotia is producing smoke that may be at surface level, clipping part of Cape Cod and Nantucket due to the northeasterly air flow. It now appears that this smoke plume will work its way northwestward into more of the region Tuesday, and may be mixed all the way to the surface, reducing visibility and detectable by smell.

TODAY: Hazy sun – high altitude smoke, also some lower altitude smoke may arrive on parts of Cape Cod and Nantucket. Highs 65-72, coolest in eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH especially through midday.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine but smoke may expand across the region. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear though smoke may linger. Lows 47-54. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of afternoon and/or evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs 83-90, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 3-7)

High pressure brings fair, cooler weather for the June 3-4 weekend. First half of next week sees a gradual increase in shower chances as the pattern changes and low pressure at upper levels arrives from the east in a retrograde.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 8-12)

A broad upper level trough is expected to be in control with a few episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms, but not a very wet pattern, and no major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

We’ve reached the mid point of the 3-day Memorial Day Weekend, and after a splendid Saturday with 100% sun and comfortable air and not too much wind, we turn the temp up a bit today with the help of a southwesterly air flow as high pressure sinks to the south of the region. As you know by now, this wind is a direct ocean breeze for the South Coast, which will be cooler. A little bit of Canadian wildfire smoke is sneaking back into the sky again, but today it will only give a slightly hazy look to the sun which otherwise will shine unimpeded once again. Tomorrow will look the same with 100% sunshine through some high altitude smoke, but it won’t feel quite the same. The reason: A back-door cold front slides down via the Gulf of Maine tonight and moves swiftly but quietly through the region and replaces the southwesterly air flow with one from the northeast. A significantly cooler Memorial Day is the result, but it will be dry with no weather problems for parades and ceremonies being held in many cities and towns in the region. Our dry pattern will continue through the middle of the coming week too. High pressure will sink southward and allow a warm-up to take place with pleasantly mild air Tuesday replaced by the feel of summer by Thursday. One thing that will be absent from the warm-up though will be high humidity, as dew points will remain low throughout the period. Despite being beyond our main fire season, the continued dryness will enhance fire danger.

TODAY: Hazy sunshine through high altitude smoke. Highs ranging widely from 65-72 Cape Cod / Islands to 82-89 interior locations with warmest in valleys. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH evening, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Hazy sunshine through high altitude smoke and also some high clouds closer to the South Coast. Highs 63-70, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH but possible coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, except 73-80 in some coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH may turn SSE in eastern coastal locations.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 2-6)

A cold front will drop southward into and across the region during June 2. The timing of this front will determine how warm it gets and how big a threat of a shower or thunderstorm becomes. Will fine-tune these aspects. June 3-4 weekend will be governed by high pressure and will be cooler with a Canadian air mass, but coolest coast with a northeasterly air flow again. High pressure sinks to the south with dry weather and a warm-up June 5-6. These changes take place during a large scale pattern evolution in which the Rex block breaks down and gives way to a weak omega block with retrogression of upper low pressure westward into our area.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 7-11)

A broad upper level trough is expected to be the main driver of our weather. We may see some unsettled weather with the chance of some much-needed rainfall during the early part of the period as a disturbance moves in from the west and another system possibly moves in from the south, but this threat is far enough away to carry much uncertainty. Also, it looks dry again right after that threat. No sign of major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 27-31)

Down the home stretch of May 2023 we go with a dry stretch to go with it. This is driven by a Rex block with a high pressure ridge over the Northeast and low pressure trough over the Southeast. The position of surface high pressure and resultant predominant wind direction helps determine day to day temperatures in this dry weather pattern which encompasses Memorial Day Weekend in its entirety and the final 2 days of the month of May also. Today’s weather will feature 100% sunshine and a warm-up over yesterday, with the cooler spot being along the beaches where a sea breeze develops. Sunday will be the warmest day region-wide with most areas in the 80s for high temps, but the exception this time will be a cooler South Coast due to a southwesterly wind. A cold front will come through without fanfare Sunday night and set up a broad scale north to northeast flow across the region with a significantly cooler Memorial Day. Some high clouds may fan across our southern sky from low pressure well to the south Sunday and Monday, and a few lower clouds from increased moisture on the southwesterly wind may visit parts of the South Coast during Sunday into Sunday night before they get pushed out by Monday. A Canadian high pressure area will then sink slowly southward Tuesday-Wednesday with a slow warm-up.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 except 70-77 South Coast and 63-70 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH evening, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny but some increase in clouds possible around Cape Cod and potential high altitude smoke returning. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH but possible coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 1-5)

Large scale pattern Rex block breaks down and is replaced by an omega block (trough West Coast, ridge upper Midwest and central Canada, trough Canadian Maritimes). This puts our region into a northwesterly air flow and we see a brief spike in temperature to start June as high pressure at the surface shifts to the south. After this a cold front drops out of Canada bringing a shot at a shower or thunderstorm June 2 and a cool-down for the June 3-4 weekend but with dry weather. Shower threat may return late period as a low pressure trough takes more control and a disturbance moves in, but this is lower confidence since it’s much further out in time.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 6-10)

Large scale pattern retrogression is indicated with high pressure moving westward from the central US/Canada into the Rockies while a low pressure trough drifts westward from the Canadian Maritimes into Quebec / Ontario and the US Northeast / Great Lakes. This pattern for our area would be cooler than average and present some chance of shower activity occurring, not necessarily a “rainy” pattern, but a little more unsettled than what we’ve seen.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 26-30)

This 5 day forecast covers the “extended” Memorial Day Weekend for those using today and/or Tuesday as extra(s), and I can’t find any raindrops to talk about. It’s going to be dry for the stretch for all travel, outdoor activity, and of course the Memorial Day parades and services that take place in many locations. The weather pattern will be dominated by high pressure, with our temperatures each day determined by high position and resultant wind direction. We start with a chilly morning today with high pressure over us after a night of radiational cooling and recover to the 60s today with a cooler coastal sea breeze. The warm-up continues for Saturday and Sunday with 70s for most areas Saturday and 80+ high temps for many for Sunday. But an exception for Sunday will be a cooler South Coast with a southwesterly air flow. A back-door cold front sneaks through the region Sunday night and early Monday and replaces that air flow with a northeast to east one Monday and Tuesday with a cooling trend. I already spoke of no rain, but we’ll also be hard pressed to find much in the way of cloud cover too during these days. A few clouds may skirt southeastern NH and northeastern MA for a brief time today and a few fair-weather clouds can pop up in the blue sky (absent of wildfire smoke) elsewhere today. I think 100% sun is our Saturday. Sunday may see a few lower clouds flirt with the South Coast due to the southwesterly air flow, and it is later Sunday and/or Monday into Tuesday when we could see some Canadian wildfire smoke mixing back into our air aloft. Also some high clouds from low pressure far to our south may fan across the southern sky by Monday and Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy shallow fog in valleys/swamps/bogs. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 except 70-77 South Coast and 63-70 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH evening, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny but some increase in clouds possible around Cape Cod and potential high altitude smoke returning. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

High pressure sinks back to the south May 31 / June 1 with fair weather and a warm-up. Cold front from Canada brings a shower or thunderstorm threat on June 2 followed by fair and cooler weather for the June 3-4 weekend based on the current expected timing.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 5-9)

Similar pattern. Tries to warm up after a cool start – maybe with some unsettled weather, before another Canadian high delivers the cool later in the period.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 25-29)

A cooler and breezy late May day is in store for us today with upper level low pressure over northern Maine & nearby southeastern Canada, and us sitting on the western side of its cold pool, which will trigger clouds at times. There will also be plenty of sun, especially this morning – an exception being the MA South Shore to South Coast where a lot of clouds are around to start the day, clear out, then are replaced by diurnal cloud development later, so a bit of a sunshine sandwich for that region. All-in-all, really not a bad spring day. High pressure noses into the region tonight, settling the wind down and setting up a strong radiational cooling night. This high pressure arrival is the start of a long visit that will keep our region dry right through the Memorial Day Weekend into next week. The general trend is a warm-up, but there will be days that coastal areas are more prone to stronger cooling from sea breezes (Saturday and Monday). The Canadian wildfire smoke plume has once again been pushed to the south and we should be free of that for a couple days before some of it tries to sneak back into our sky possibly before the end of the long weekend…

TODAY: Lots of clouds early MA South Shore / South Coast with sun elsewhere, then a sun/cloud mix evolving from north to south midday on. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early evening, then clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 except 70-77 South Coast and 63-70 Cape Cod / Islands. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH evening, becoming variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny but some increase in clouds possible around Cape Cod and potential high altitude smoke returning. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

An upper level trough brings the slightest chance for a pop up shower May 30 and/or May 31, but leaning dry with temperatures close to normal. Generally dry with a warm-up into the first few days of June with an approaching front bringing the chance of a shower or t-storm end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 4-8)

Leaning toward a cool-down early in the period due to a push from Canadian high pressure – a fairly common thing in this particular pattern. Temperature moderation mid to late period may come with some unsettled weather, but still not seeing any big rain events or any significant heat.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 24-28)

Today is interruption day in our latest stretch of dry weather. It will take place when a sharp cold front pushes through from north northwest to south southeast later today, bringing showers and possibly a thunderstorm to the region, highest coverage from southern NH into northern MA but coverage dropping off to the south as the support and moisture will start to run out. What won’t run out is the push of cooler air behind the front for later tonight and tomorrow, but first we get a brief warm-up today. Exception: South Coast is cooler today due to a pre-frontal southerly wind off the ocean. Also, what’s become a familiar site, the Canadian wildfire smoke, will once again be in our sky today, filtering the sun before the front’s clouds arrive. This smoke plume will be pushed south of the region Thursday, but some cold air stratocumulus clouds may blot the sun out instead at times as a gusty northerly breeze blows. As we head through Friday and into the Memorial Day Weekend, we’ll see high pressure bringing fair weather to the region with a gradual warm-up, but coastal areas can still see some sea breeze development Friday and Saturday, while by Sunday a more established southerly wind would be warmer for all except the South Coast.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun into afternoon before clouds advance northwest to southeast followed by widespread showers and slight thunder chance mid to late afternoon southern NH / north central MA and late afternoon to early evening southeastward from there but becoming less widespread. Highs 68-75, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW in southern NH and northern MA by the end of the day.

TONIGHT: Clouds early with lingering showers South Coast region, otherwise clearing, but some clouds may return from north to south late. Lows 45-52. Wind shifting to NW-N 5-15 MPH through the rest of the region.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70, coolest coastal areas. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83 except cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

Dry weather holds for Memorial Day (May 29) with warmest inland and a cooling sea breeze at the coast with high pressure holding over the region. An upper trough brings the chance of a few pop up showers May 30 and 31. Fair and seasonable weather is expected for the first couple days of June as high pressure moves back in.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 3-7)

High pressure will be the main player at the the surface while a weak upper trough dominates. The mildest weather should occur early period, but Canadian high pressure pushes cooler air into the region for mid period, maybe with a shower threat at transition time, before warmer air tries to make a come-back with clouds and a shower chance toward late period.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)

This update carries very little change in the thought process applied to yesterday’s. We’ll have mainly dry weather during the next 5 days, including the start of the Memorial Day Weekend. The only interruption will be a period of rain along a sharp cold front passing through late Wednesday. Before that, a continued easterly flow keeps eastern coastal areas coolest today, and while a southerly wind warms much of the region tomorrow, the South Coast will be coolest. After the front goes by, another Canadian high delivers a fresh cool air mass on a north wind Thursday. By Friday/Saturday, high pressure builds over the region, with a more variable wind leaving the coast vulnerable to sea breezes while it’s milder to warmer inland, but with nice weather heading into the holiday weekend! Backing up slightly, we’ll still be seeing mid to high altitude wildfire smoke from Canada filtering the sun that we have into Wednesday (before clouds arrive anyway). This smoke plume will get pushed to our south by Thursday, and we’ll have to watch to see if it sneaks back in late week.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 64-71, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then clouds advancing northwest to southeast. Showers crossing much of the region northwest to southeast late afternoon and evening, most coverage to the north and west, less to the southeast. Highs 68-75, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from northwest to southeast late afternoon on.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70, coolest coastal areas. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

A little more confident today that we see generally dry weather for the balance of Memorial Day Weekend (May 28-29) with low pressure staying well to our south, and upper level low pressure triggering diurnal showers over the mountains to our north. Will continue to watch these days closely. Prognosticating upper level low pressure to be in our area and a disturbance or two moving by with a couple shower threats May 30-31. High pressure builds in at the end of the period to start June fair and mild.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)

High pressure should be the main player at the the surface while a weak upper trough dominates. The mildest weather should occur early period, but watching Canadian high pressure yet again to possibly deliver a decent cool shot mid or late period. Not sure if a shower threat is involved in that transition quite yet, but not seeing any big rain events or early heat threats.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 22-26)

The region had a split weekend, with 1-3 inches of beneficial rain Saturday and a return to dry weather Sunday. If you were paying attention, the sun went red on us just before setting last night as another wildfire smoke plume approached the region from western Canada via the Great Lakes. This smoke will be around to filter our sunshine early this week, but the air will be on the cool side with high pressure centered north of our region. This will create a broad onshore flow for the region and of course the coastal areas will be coolest as a result. By late Tuesday and Wednesday, the high will shift southeastward and set up a milder southerly wind here, but on Wednesday that means the South Coast will be coolest in the region as the wind will come directly off the water there. Our only shot of rain during the next 5 days comes Wednesday afternoon and evening in the form of a band of showers along a sharp cold front. This front will be moving southward out of eastern Canada and pass rather swiftly through the region. High pressure building toward and into the region Thursday-Friday will return dry and cooler weather to the region.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine. Highs 61-68, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Smoke aloft otherwise clear. Lows 43-50. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 64-71, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then clouds advancing northwest to southeast. Showers crossing much of the region northwest to southeast late afternoon and evening, most coverage to the north and west, less to the southeast. Highs 68-75, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from northwest to southeast late afternoon on.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 27-31)

Memorial Day Weekend (May 27-29) carries some forecast uncertainty. Current thoughts are that low pressure to the south will stay far enough to the south to avoid direct impact, and upper level low pressure will impact areas to our north with diurnal shower chances, leaving our region dry with a slow warming trend, but this is not a high confidence forecast, so check for updates through the week. May 30-31 may carry a shower chance with a trough of low pressure in the region and a disturbance or two passing through.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 1-5)

General pattern dry but one or two brief shower chances with disturbances passing by as a weak upper trough will be the main feature in the region. Temperatures near normal – no heat foreseen.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 21-25)

After some beneficial rainfall yesterday, it’s back to the dry regime again. The cold front is offshore, but in New England style we’ll be a little milder than yesterday behind it as we replace a moist southerly air flow with a drying westerly one, which results in downslope warming. We’ll have some cloudiness to contend with but eventually the sun will win out later today. Cooler air does arrive for early in the week as high pressure to the north sends a broad scale onshore flow into the region Monday into Tuesday. High pressure slips to the east and a warmer southerly air flow arrives Wednesday, but that warm-up will be short-lived as a sharp cold front will drop out of Canada to bring our only risk of wet weather during the next 5 days on Wednesday evening in the form of showers. This leads to a cool-down for Thursday with more dry weather.

TODAY: Lots of clouds with a trend to more sun later. Highs 67-74. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind E under 10 MPH..

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Late day showers possible. Highs 64-71. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67, coolest in eastern coastal areas. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 26-30)

Guidance has been amusing to look at during the last couple of days with two medium range models flipping the forecast of high pressure and a warm-up for Memorial Day Weekend to one of low pressure moving into the region with unsettled weather, while another model has kept it the same as previously – dry, warming up. The most recent guidance set gets basically 3 different forecasts. What I am eyeing at this point as we head from mid week into and through Memorial Day Weekend and to the penultimate day of May is a tendency for a trough to want to be in place, but one that would just mean the potential for a couple pop-up showers with colder air aloft. This is a (cautiously) optimistic forecast compared to recent guidance trends but one I will go with for now, leaving room for adjustment as the time period draws closer.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

With low confidence in the 6-10 day period, you can’t really rebound to higher confidence in the 11-15, so for now I’ll continue to lean to the drier regime winning, but a tendency for Canadian cooling to be readily available to move in.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 20-24)

A kind-of-split weekend. We don’t lose all of our Saturday to wet weather. Most of our morning is dry, though by later this morning some showers can certainly be occurring in the South Coast region. The bulk of the shower activity outside of one tongue of moisture moving across the region this afternoon will occur tonight with the passage of a cold front, when some heavier downpours can occur and there is even the risk of some thunder. However, as is sometimes the case, this cold front will not be followed by immediate cooling, and Sunday, while carrying a fair amount of clouds at times, will be a fairly mild day with a drying downsloping westerly wind. Cooler air does arrive by Monday with more of a broad scale onshore flow developing with high pressure to our north. This high settles across the region with a more tranquil Tuesday. When we get to Wednesday, I’ve completely abandoned the notion of any moisture sneaking up from low pressure to the south, and most of the day will be dry as it looks now, but a cold front will approach from the northwest and may bring showers before that day is over – of course dependent on timing which is far from highly certain out that many days.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely Cape Cod region midday into afternoon with isolated to scattered showers possible anywhere else. Highs 61-68, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Lows 52-59. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds at times, some sun at others. Chance of a shower early in the day favoring eastern coastal areas and especially Cape Cod. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Late day showers possible. Highs 64-71. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 25-29)

High pressure is expected to dominate the weather from the middle of the week right into and through the entire Memorial Day Weekend with temperatures starting out seasonable to slightly cooler than normal then moderating to above normal. Moderately confident that upper level low pressure down the Atlantic Coast stays there but will obviously monitor. We’ve seen fair weather outlooks this far in advance turn around on us before and in weather, that kind of history can repeat itself.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

Looking for a trough and some unsettled weather potential to end May, and a return to fair weather and a seasonable weather pattern to begin June.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)

Today will look a little more like summer again due to the smoky haze in the sky from the ongoing Canadian wildfires, and we’ll warm up a little more after our midweek cool spell as we get a southerly wind going too, but keep in mind that a southerly wind is a direct ocean breeze on the South Coast, so it will be cooler there than the remainder of the region. The weekend is kind of a split, with an unsettled Saturday and improvement Sunday. On Saturday we’ll be in the southerly air flow but this time with more moisture involved in the way of a mainly cloudy sky. One swath of moisture will approach from the south while a trough and cold front move our way from the west. My thoughts are similar to what I wrote yesterday in that I think the initial area of showers from southern moisture will peel off to the east, clipping Cape Cod mostly, and a hang back area being captured by the front from the west, helping to give most of the region its showery weather later in the day Saturday and Saturday evening/night, lingering into very early Sunday as the frontal boundary reaches the coast then pushes offshore. This sets up a drier day for Sunday, although it will be quite mild with a drying westerly wind behind the front and the cooler air lagging somewhat. High pressure should hang to the north Monday with more of an easterly wind setting up and that will end up a cooler day as a result. With high pressure more atop the region Tuesday we’ll be fair with light wind but coastal sea breeze can easily get going, keeping that area coolest.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun with patchy clouds. Highs 67-74 except 60-67 immediate South Coast / Cape Cod / Islands. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely Cape Cod region midday into afternoon. Showers arrive west to east late-day / evening. Highs 62-69, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Lows 52-59. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds at times, some sun at others. Chance of a shower early in the day favoring eastern coastal areas and especially Cape Cod. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)

Still watching low pressure to the south in case it comes further north than guidance says early in the period, otherwise looks like high pressure wants to dominate with one front sneaking down to cool the region off prior to next weekend before a warm-up begins.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

Current call is for fair weather to hold through Memorial Day (May 29) before a system from that west brings a shower threat to end the month. Fair, seasonable start to June.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 18-22)

A cold start this morning will turn around quickly today with a decent temperature rise off morning lows which landed right in the expected range (upper 20s in coldest spots like Taunton, 30s in most areas, and lower 40s in urban centers like downtown Boston). Some locations (Taunton for example again), can rise well over 30 degrees today to their high temp, while others (Boston) will have a smaller “diurnal” – the term that refers to the difference between the morning low and afternoon high temps. Typical springtime in New England though as this is the season we see this most. Folks in southern portions of the WHW forecast area (south central to southeastern MA, eastern CT, and RI) awake to a hazier sky due to a plume of wildfire smoke mixed with some high clouds carried in by the upper winds, while areas to the north and northeast have a clearer sky and brighter sun to start, but more of that smoke may make its way in from the northwest as the day goes on, so we may end up with more of a hazy look to the sky for most areas by day’s end. Other than some smoke aloft it will be a clear night tonight, but with an increasing dew point on a more southerly air flow, despite fairly light wind we won’t be able to chill down like last night, and this will lead to a warmer day tomorrow still with a fair amount of sun despite some additional mid to high altitude smoke and additional cloud cover. This leads us to a more complex outlook for the weekend. Saturday, we’ll be watching the approach of two systems. The first is a trough and frontal system from the west, the second a weak low pressure area moving north northeastward from the Middle Atlantic coastal area. Current thoughts are that the moisture from the second system will split, with part 1 peeling off to the east to possibly clip Cape Cod with some wet weather during the day Saturday, favoring the afternoon, and part 2 getting caught up in the approaching frontal system from the west, which will bring the most widespread showers to the region as a whole Saturday evening and night, then exiting off the coast during early Sunday morning. This will set up a drier finish to the weekend, but we may still have at least some cloudiness around Sunday as colder air moves back in aloft while the surface is slower to cool down and dry out. By Monday, Canadian high pressure will be back with fair, cooler weather.

TODAY: Sunshine, but filtered by high clouds and some high altitude smoke in southern areas early and then again from west to east by later in the day. Highs 61-68. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, then W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except some smoke aloft. Lows 47-54. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud/smoke aloft mix. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely Cape Cod region midday into afternoon. Showers arrive west to east late-day / evening. Highs 67-74, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 50-57. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds at times, some sun at others. Chance of a shower early in the day favoring eastern coastal areas and especially Cape Cod. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 23-27)

Watch for a potential sneaky system with a wet weather threat in the May 24-26 window, otherwise dry weather should dominate the beginning and end of the period, and much of the period of the unsettled weather fails to materialize.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

The middle and end of the Memorial Day Weekend should be dry and warmer followed by the potential for some showery weather to close out May, and a return to fair weather to start the month of June.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)

High pressure will dominate our weather for the next 3 days, but with different weather based on the high’s center and interaction with other systems. Today’s windy and cool with the high center to our west and northwest and a strong cold front just having gone by, with low pressure to our northeast. There are some clouds near the eastern coast that will move off, and sun will dominate otherwise for a brief before we see diurnal cloud development and more of a sun/cloud mix. These clouds clear out and the wind begins to drop off tonight as high pressure’s center nudges closer, and these conditions will promote radiational cooling, with many areas (except urban centers) falling into the 30s with some frost forming. Cold spots of the interior can fall below freezing, threatening some early agricultural development. We do rebound nicely Thursday afternoon with less wind and full sun, and as high pressure shifts off the coast by Friday we continue a warm-up. For several days I’ve been eyeing potential / probable unsettled weather for a portion of the weekend, and as of this time I feel it will play out like this. A trough swings into and through the region from west to east during the course of the weekend. At the surface, a cold front approaches Saturday, while a tongue of subtropical moisture makes a run at us from the south. Current thought is that a lot of that subtropical moisture misses us just to the east, but may bring some wet weather to Cape Cod during Saturday, while the rest of us see showers from the cold front moving through Saturday evening / night. That front that moves offshore and Sunday we return to dry weather but breezy and cooler conditions. I’ll monitor and tweak this as/if necessary.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35 interior lower elevations, 35-42 elsewhere, mildest in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely Cape Cod region midday hours. Chance of showers later in the day mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Highs 67-74, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 22-26)

High pressure in control with fair weather early in the period. Watching one low to the south and a trough from the west with potential unsettled weather mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 27-31)

High pressure returns with fair weather, a cool start then a warming trend for Memorial Day Weekend (May 27-29). Next trough may bring unsettled weather back to the region for the last couple days of the month.