DAYS 1-5 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)
A blanket of broken stratus clouds along the South Coast to the MA South Shore and more broken to scattered stratus closer to the I-90 belt will erode early to mid morning, revealing a hazy sun. Where there are no clouds present, the hazy sun that was visible from the start of the day will remain so, with the “haze” once again a mix of wildfire smoke near the surface from Nova Scotia (moved in from the east) and aloft from western Canada (having been moving in from the west and north). Today warms up a little over yesterday which still held some ocean-modified air in more noticeable form. This warm up will continue Thursday into Friday as high pressure sinks to the south and delivers more south to west wind across the region. This, of course, is a direct ocean breeze for the South Coast which will be coolest those two days. The next thing to figure out is the timing of a strong back-door cold front dropping south southwestward via the Gulf of Maine to cross the region late Friday to early Saturday. Current call is late evening to early overnight (10PM-2AM) window for the front to cross the region. This timing is late for the front to have a direct impact on shower and thunderstorm chances for Friday afternoon, so for now my leaning is to go for just isolated shower and thunderstorm activity from daytime heating and slightly increased humidity on Friday afternoon, with a general band of showers coming through Friday evening to early overnight with the front. Behind the front should come a period of stratus clouds and patchy drizzle, along with a few lingering shower that can develop over the top of the shallow wedge of cool air with some lingering warm air above it, before the atmosphere stabilizes with the northeasterly air flow through the balance of Saturday. Enough dry air should work down from the northeast to at least partially clear the cloud cover for a sun/cloud mix for midday on, but will fine-tune that as it can be a difficult detail to forecast a few days out. This trend continues into Sunday but as this happens we’ll be seeing the arrival of upper level low pressure from the east (retrogression of features as mentioned in previous discussions). This brings in colder air above and despite the drier air working in, there can be enough moisture for solar heating to trigger the development of diurnal fair-weather clouds, so we’ll probably not have a totally sunny Sunday either. We will be rain-free though, and a little less chilly than Saturday but still cooler than normal for early June.
TODAY: Lots of clouds early to mid morning MA South Shore to South Coast, otherwise smoke-filtered sun. Highs 77-84 except 70-77 South Coast. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Additional areas of smoke. Some clouds re-develop mainly south of I-90. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90 except 75-82 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 84-91, cooler Cape Cod and a few other coastal locations. Wind W up to 10 MPH can still yield to local coastal sea breezes.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely evening to the north of I-90 and mostly overnight from I-90 belt south. Areas of drizzle and light fog overnight especially eastern coastal locations. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to NE and increasing to 10-20 MPH from northeast to southwest beginning late evening.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Areas of drizzle favoring eastern locations early in the day. Chance of a few showers favoring the South Coast region in the morning. Highs 58-65, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts through midday.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 5-9)
An upper level trough will dominate the weather pattern. This will bring some episodes of scattered showers but right now thinking no big rain events and definitely no early heat with temperatures below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 10-14)
A broad upper level trough is expected to be in control with a few episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms and no significant heat. Temperatures below to near normal.