Wednesday May 17 2023 Forecast (7:29AM)

51 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)

High pressure will dominate our weather for the next 3 days, but with different weather based on the high’s center and interaction with other systems. Today’s windy and cool with the high center to our west and northwest and a strong cold front just having gone by, with low pressure to our northeast. There are some clouds near the eastern coast that will move off, and sun will dominate otherwise for a brief before we see diurnal cloud development and more of a sun/cloud mix. These clouds clear out and the wind begins to drop off tonight as high pressure’s center nudges closer, and these conditions will promote radiational cooling, with many areas (except urban centers) falling into the 30s with some frost forming. Cold spots of the interior can fall below freezing, threatening some early agricultural development. We do rebound nicely Thursday afternoon with less wind and full sun, and as high pressure shifts off the coast by Friday we continue a warm-up. For several days I’ve been eyeing potential / probable unsettled weather for a portion of the weekend, and as of this time I feel it will play out like this. A trough swings into and through the region from west to east during the course of the weekend. At the surface, a cold front approaches Saturday, while a tongue of subtropical moisture makes a run at us from the south. Current thought is that a lot of that subtropical moisture misses us just to the east, but may bring some wet weather to Cape Cod during Saturday, while the rest of us see showers from the cold front moving through Saturday evening / night. That front that moves offshore and Sunday we return to dry weather but breezy and cooler conditions. I’ll monitor and tweak this as/if necessary.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35 interior lower elevations, 35-42 elsewhere, mildest in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely Cape Cod region midday hours. Chance of showers later in the day mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Highs 67-74, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 22-26)

High pressure in control with fair weather early in the period. Watching one low to the south and a trough from the west with potential unsettled weather mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 27-31)

High pressure returns with fair weather, a cool start then a warming trend for Memorial Day Weekend (May 27-29). Next trough may bring unsettled weather back to the region for the last couple days of the month.

51 thoughts on “Wednesday May 17 2023 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  5. Thank you TK, and here’s hoping the Swifties dodge the rain!

    As for me, I was planning on doing a short climb on Saturday … Mount Major, but thinking Friday will be better. First climb of the year.

    1. I think I have heard of that. Where is it and how high is it?
      Never mind, I looked it up.

      Must be an amazing view from there.

      We used to do climbing. We have climbed

      mt kearsarge x 1
      Mount Monadnock x 3
      Mt. Lafayette x 1
      Mt. Washington x 2

      That’s about the extent of our climbing.

      Enjoy your climb!

      1. We never climbed although our son does. We took the lift up and shooshed down šŸ™‚ šŸ™‚

        All of those are very familiar names though. Another that came to mind ā€¦not to climb but just because the view of it through the three birches was always a favoriteā€¦.is Mt Chocorua

        1. Oh, my bad. it was Chocorua we climbed and not Kearsage. šŸ™‚ Thank you for the correction!

          1. Hahahahaha. I didnā€™t correct but was just letting my memory wander. Iā€™m also familiar with Kearsage. Reminds me of my dear but unofficial uncle who we skied with but I can never remember why

    2. I had to look up Mt Major. Iā€™m familiar with Alton but not with the mountain. Sounds like a great climb. Will mention to my son. Thank you and enjoy!!

  9. Thanks TK.

    Good luck to the Celtics tonight! :mrgreen:

    8 wins away from a ā€œDuckboatā€ parade. Too bad the Bruins arenā€™t in this same position as well.

  12. Should see a sight trend east on guidance with subtropical moisture ribbon starting now.

    1. I know itā€™s a weekend but that extra moisture would help with the fire danger, correct?

      1. yup. I was just out. With the bright sunshine, it is still very nice out. šŸ™‚ Very comfortable. I was just complaining about the actual temperature and not the real conditions outside. šŸ™‚

  15. In response to the climbing comments, I make Mount Major my first every year. It’s a short climb, maybe 3 hours round trip including time on the top. It’s an 1,800 footer with a vertical gain of maybe 1,100-1,200 feet. (Compared to Mt Washington which is 6,300 feet with a vertical gain of 4,000 feet.)

    It’s mud and bug season right now so you have to put up with it. It’ll improve over the next 2 weeks.

    The main issue on all climbs is to respect the mountain regardless of height and difficulty; watch the weather forecasts closely; study the trails; and have all the right gear including GPS. I have an app which allows friends and family to track me.

    I have gotten into serious trouble twice. One was weather related. Fortunately I never had to call for a rescue despite fractured vertebrae and broken bones.

    Final comment: Weather has gotten the best of many climbers including some of the most experienced around the globe. Case in point is Kate Matrosova, once the # 2 female climber in the world, who died near Mt Adams (NH) in ferocious weather conditions during a 15 mile solo winter climb. It was a tragic and awful death, and is still discussed in hushed tones among cult climbers. A book was written and maybe a movie yet to come. As for myself, I have learned my lesson and have turned around when unexpected weather has moved in. The mountain will be there tomorrow.

    1. Good advice. I must admit ALL of my climbs have been STUPID!!! including Washington as all climbs were made WITHOUT proper equipment and clothing. Climbed Washington in shorts in September and it was 30 degrees at the summit. Climbed it another time in RAIN! Coming down Tuckerman’s was an adventure and a half! How we didn’t KILL ourselves is a miracle.
      Young and Foolish at the time!

      You give EXCELLENT ADVICE!!!

  16. Iā€™m soaking up sun on the deck but ā€˜Tis a cool breeze today.

    Sky is crystal blue and the newly green leaves on rimming the hill behind the house are striking in contrast.

  17. I don’t know how it works in the weather world – meteorologists – but dissent isn’t tolerated in the health economics and policy world. Unless you’re a huge name in the field (I am not) you get squashed like a bug if you go against the grain. Now, it’s not like what happened in the former East European bloc, where the government would step in and drag you off to jail. Not, it’s more subtle but can be stifling of thought that’s outside the box. And can lead to firing and marginalization.

    Yesterday, I wrote an article critical of a UnitedHealthcare prior authorization policy. Then this morning I got threatening emails from a UnitedHealthcare executive about the article (which wasn’t exactly a hit piece). Have spent all day today on back-and-forth emails with Forbes editors and the executive: Line by line defense of what I did. I was forced to make several edits to the piece, but refused to give in to all that UHC wanted. And so now there’s a figurative `threat’ hanging above my head. Really unpleasant.

    I wonder if something similar would apply in meteorology. Suppose a met is skeptical of climate change and voices that opinion, would he or she be subject to similar `threats?’ Alternatively, suppose a met thinks that climate change is a huge problem and voices that opinion (in, say, a conservative place), would he or she be subject to similar `threats?’

    1. Sorry to hear Joshua !

      Yes, I think using your weather example, it can get a similar inappropriate reaction depending on region in the US. Both ways too. Neither extreme side seems tolerant of other takes not in line with their views.

    3. I am so very sorry. And sadly not surprised. Iā€™ve mentioned UHC here a few times. Mac had UHC through HP. I wonā€™t repeat what it refused or how many life saving tests ā€¦.and they weee life savingā€¦.it denied. My sister in law who passed last summer had two tests denied. My brother who recently was released from rehab was denied rehab after his first hospital stay. He was home three days, had a TIA and went back in hospital, Rehab was refused again until I suggested his kids get an advocate.

      Joshua. It is a horrific business. And it is supported by AARP which disgusts me. With as much as I hate the company, I would never have guessed they would resort to this. But I can guarantee knowing what I know that no matter what you said was not close to what they deserve

      1. AARP is USELESS!!!! I HATE THEM!
        I HATE the whole damn medical business from top to bottom.
        ALL they care about is the MONEY! iT’S SO sad.

        1. It is a despicable company . Medicare on the other hand is a breath of fresh air. Not the advantage plan run under UHC

  18. Euro and GFS hinting at nearby warmth entering Memorial Day weekend.

    Watching trends next few to several days.

    1. Cool start, warm finish I think.

      CPC is too warm on its 6-10 & 8-14. I do think they have the right idea with the dry outlook though.

      1. Fwiw..I havenā€™t watched any other tv mets yet but, according to Ch. 7 (not JR) for Saturday and night, a regionwide inch of rain expected.

        If the subtropical moisture is heading eastbound, I donā€™t see how that inch can verify.

        1. I did see that. Not much different from TK. Showers later Saturday over night into Sunday am possible. Maybe an inch total for some. But then that is 3 days out

  19. We have a freeze warning. Maybe it will kill any mosquitoes although unlike ticks we have not seen a lot of mosquitoes

  20. I am currently in the market for health care coverage as I am no longer able to afford BCBS of MA. They covered most services but I just canā€™t afford their premiums anymore ($2,000+/month).

    I certainly wonā€™t choose UHC. I actually thought of them. So sorry Joshua. I hope your predicament gets straightened out.

    1. Thanks.

      It’s a hassle and nuisance. Also, I was treated like a first grader who’s behaved badly and needs to be corrected. The executive at UHC copied all of my Forbes editors on the emails. In turn, one of them got upset with me (he hadn’t yet read the article). Clearly the UHC guy wanted me fired. Who knows, he might be successful. I’m still waiting to see what happens next.

      Regarding your situation vis-a-vis health insurance, I’m on the individual market in Massachusetts and have Tufts Health Plan coverage. It is good? No. Far from it. Is it affordable? Sort of.

  22. I really hope TKā€™s Saturday night forecast turns out to be wrong. We need rain badly. It is dry dry dry. Lawns not irrigated yet are already showing signs of stress. I usually donā€™t irrigate until Memorial Day or later but Iā€™ve been watering since mid April.

  25. 44 with 17;DP at 9:17.

    Not weather related but I am sure enjoying jeopardy Masters tournament each night

  26. The semifinals of Jeopardy! Masters tournament start Monday as were down to the final four.

    1. Wait,,,we have final four tonight. We donā€™t start again till Monday? I will miss having three jeopardy each night

      1. I looked at my recording schedule JJ and am glad you said it wonā€™t be back till Monday. I would have hated to find out just as I was about to watch tomorrow night. I absolutely enjoy all of the contestants. I do think Iā€™m a bit partial to Sam

  27. Celtics are tough to watch. Not a big basketball fan, but I do always root for the home team. This team, however, has such a bizarre Jekyll and Hyde approach to these games. They’re consistently inconsistent.

  28. I will say this, Jimmy Butler is a basketball player. I like the way he plays.

    37 Points
    6 Rebounds
    8 Assists
    7 Steals

    I also like Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets. Really fun to watch him rack up triple-doubles pretty much every game.

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