DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 5-9)
Today is a transition day between yesterday’s lower humidity and and upcoming classic summer pattern. There’s a small-sized low pressure area passing just southeast of New England early today with its shower activity remaining over the water southeast of Nantucket before heading out to sea. We’ll see some high cloudiness fanning into our sky from the southwest as high pressure shifts offshore to our south. This means abundant but filtered sunshine today as we see warm temperatures and an increase in humidity. Then, Thursday through Sunday will feature a classic high humidity, very warm to hot stretch of weather. Diurnal (mainly afternoon to very early evening) pop-up showers and thunderstorms are a possibility daily Thursday through Sunday, and other than likely being scattered to potentially clustered with the aid of an upper level disturbance passing by on Thursday, they should be mostly isolated Friday and the weekend. Outdoor plans are generally a go in this pattern, but you do need to keep an eye to the sky and on radar for any of these storms, which while they are the exception, can produce torrential rain, gusty wind, and of course frequent lightning for a time in any area that they occur.
TODAY: Filtered sun with high clouds. Highs 81-88. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible from mid afternoon through early evening. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast, and also can drop back to near 80 at east-facing shores. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 coastal areas. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but with potential sea breezes in all coastal areas.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: A sun / cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 coastal areas. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but with potential sea breezes in all coastal areas.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: A sun / cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 coastal areas. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but with potential sea breezes in all coastal areas.
DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 10-14)
The classic Bermuda High pattern breaks down somewhat in favor of a more west to east flow in our area. This creates a little more variability in the temperature, but no extremes. Two disturbances / frontal systems are to be watched for enhanced shower and thunderstorm potential, one in the August 10-11 window and the other in the August 13-14 window.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 15-19)
A general west to east flow with a couple passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm chances heading through the heart of mid August. Temperatures slightly variable, averaging fairly close to normal for the period.
Thanks TK.
A couple notes…
Media will do its usual thing with the heat hype. This is not going to be “out of the ordinary” heat. In fact, no record temps will even be threatened. It will be typical August warm to hot, humid weather.
Some media will make it seem like it’s been like this all summer. You know better. It hasn’t been.
Oh yeah, that “tropical cyclone” that the GFS was forecasting last week to possibly threaten the east coast is currently passing southeast of Nantucket as a non-tropical, small, weak low. Look out! The waves out there might be a few inches higher than they would have been! 😉
The preceding was indeed a little poke at the general media (not our wonderful meteorologists), and a little sarcasm.
You may now resume your regular schedule while I head to work for my final time this week before a 4-day weekend!
Small waves
https://hssharad4prod.wellsky.com/reportserver.
Good morning and thank yiu TK
69 up from 65. Dp 61
Ocean: 66
Wordle: 4
FWIW, Pete actually said dew points in the mid 70s Thurs through Sunday. Yuck!!!
Even if only low 70s yuck!!
Good job on Wordle. I’ll be in the 4-car as well.
Welcome.
Great 4s SClarke and JPD
2nd what Vicki said 🙂
Thank you TK!
Wordle: Another crappy 5 for me today. Maybe the thought of high dewpoints and purging half the sh*t it my house this weekend is fogging my brain. UGH!
No worries. You’ll be getting 2s and 3s before you know it.
btw, I don’t think that today’s word was easy by any stretch.
Makes me feel a bit better. I put Wordle aside at 12:30 after two guesses. I have four letters ….none in correct position ….and no clue what word is.
Good luck when you resume.
Thank you
I second what JPD said.
Good luck with the moving process and a nice 5
These are they days I’m glad I live in Swampscott. The sea breezes usually keep us below the area in average temperature. Just don’t let those breezes come from the west.
Wordle in 3. Got lucky with second word.
Wow!!! Truly awesome result!
Very nice
Excellent !
Well done!
Thank you, TK. 67/64 with a low of 59
Thanks TK
NWS Heat Risk Map next several days
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/
So for Boston, moderate today, Major thurs, Fri, Sat, Sun and Moderate Monday.
YUCK!!!!! Let’s bring in September or better yet, October!!!!
Thanks TK !
Wordle: 4
Great job Tom! Welcome aboard the 4 car. 🙂
Thanks 🙂
Super Tom.
Thanks 🙂
Wow. Fun 4 car. Nice wordling to all
Just got it but only after narrowing some positions down in third guess. I had to look up meaning of word.
Wordle ….hopping on the 4 car
Congrats and welcome !
Welcome. We have a crowded 4 car today.
Me as well, 4 car
All Aboard!!!!! choo choo choo choo
Welcome !
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2026080500&fh=312&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
In the very long range, there is a suggestion to quite a cool shot or 2.
We’ll see …… the current Bermuda high, in my opinion, wasn’t captured 12-16 days out, it starting showing up 7 to 8 days ago.
Also, I’m suspicious how strong the western us ridge can be with so much smoke out there. I was somewhat taken aback how much the Washington/oregon/southern British Columbia wild fires ventilated yesterday and what was put up into the atmosphere.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES18/ABI/SECTOR/pnw/GEOCOLOR/20262171406_GOES18-ABI-pnw-GEOCOLOR-2400×2400.jpg
If the western ridge is tempered in the long range, so too, in theory, should be the depth of the eastern us trof.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850th&rh=2026080500&fh=312&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=
The euro in that same time period, not quite as cool.
I don’t know if this is right, but I feel the GFS has been better than the Euro this summer. Short, medium range at least.
Thanks, TK!
80/64
2.91″ from Monday’s event.
The recent healthy supply of rain has certainly reinvigorated our lawn, including the grass on the side lot which is always in direct sunlight. I mowed the lawn on Sunday and it already could use a trim today!!!
A week from today, there will be a total eclipse in Greenland, Iceland and northern Spain.
From nasa.gov:
For a small, remote region in northern Russia, totality — when the Moon completely covers the Sun — will occur mid-day. For Greenland and Iceland, the Sun will go dark in the late afternoon or early evening. In Spain and the very northwestern tip of Portugal, the Sun won’t be fully eclipsed until the late evening, shortly before sunset.
The neat thing about this event is that it will happen right before sunset. Totality starts at 8:29 pm local in Valladolid, Spain.
I have friends in the Barcelona area who are super excited about this celestial event.
Awesome, that should make for an interesting light or lack there of around sunset. I hope the weather will cooperate for them !!
Very cool! I was at the the last one in Burlington, VT and it was one of the best days of my life even with the 12 hour apocalyptic drive home!
Thanks, TK.
The humidity will be a back breaker for me the coming days. Not the heat per se. I just can’t spend time outdoors during periods like this, which stinks because I love being outdoors.
My wife doesn’t exist in weather like this!!! it puts here away!!!
I don’t like it one bit, but it doesn’t completely put me away.
People sensitive to Heat/Humidity have a really tough time in this weather.
It’s far easier for me to be outdoors in the winter than in the summer. So I understand.
81/66 here and the YUCKIES begin!!@(#&(!@&#&!@)#&!)@&(
For those interested, see my latest batch of Forbes articles. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/
There’s something in it for everyone: From the increasing rate of uninsured in healthcare to peptides to abortion to healthcare reform to U.S. life expectancy data to changes in Medicare premiums to weight loss drug coverage in Medicare.
Thank you, Joshua
Gorgeous summer day!
Middle to upper 80s. DP’s upper 50s to lower 60s. Nice active BREEZE!
Heading to Hampton for the evening. 🙂
Oh yes, the other thing I was going to bring up earlier which needs to be issued as a reminder: Why do we see more heat advisories these days? Because the NWS changed the criteria and they are issued for conditions they were never issued for in the past. So that’s the answer on that one. Just making sure we know the actual reason. 🙂
Have fun at Hampton !
August is the sunniest month. I would have guessed either June or July.
June, no. Too much lingering cold aloft which initiates more diurnal cloud cover.
August is the warmest month aloft in general, and the most benign jet stream month, along with the warmest ocean water. That’s an easy recipe for sunniest month.
July is the transition between the 2.
August & September are the two sunniest months in terms of percentage of sun per day.
May through July still have quite a few hours of sunshine, but that’s because there are more hours between sunrise and sunset for it to shine.
So you also have to be careful of the specifics of the statistics.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16§or=ne
The thicker band of clouds down around NYC seem to accompany the DP boundary.
NYC and Long Island, southward, oppressive humidity.
North of that line of clouds, manageable humidity.
Some models show the oppressive humidity arriving locally not long after sunset.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=RWR&format=CI&version=1
Philly and Mt Holly both with a 77F dp, amongst plenty of other mid 70s dps
The dew point boundary lies with that line of showers in that NJ / NYC area.
Tom, the ECMWF was the first global model to accurately show the trend toward a weak to moderate Bermuda High.
The GFS was too interested in trying to create a tropical cyclone, which in reality turned out to be a very small NON-tropical low, which passed well southeast of our region today.
Haha, I do remember seeing that Fantacane on the GFS a few to several days ago.
Ok, noted and thank you, TK !
They have never been able to rid that p.o.c. version of this model of making fake-i-canes. I’m so disappointed in that. They broke it a few years ago. They had a version that did not do that nearly as much, and when they tweaked it it just broke in the worst way possible, and it’s just not going away. Yet, no other global model does it nearly as regularly. They all have issues, because no model is “perfect”, but this glaring malfunction has overstayed its welcome, big time, and I really hope they’re on the verge of booting it. But I keep hoping that, and it keeps not happening. 😛
It looks like Boston’s “recorded” high will be 88 (actual, 87) for today.
Dew point is 61 but the higher dew point air still sits off to the south by a few hundred miles.
88/68. We clearly didn’t get the message on the lower DPs. I did check surrounding and they were the same.
At least there won’t be 81 degree dew points like I experienced down in Sarasota last week and the week before. Just a guess we might se 75 dew point? I was in the ocean yesterday along the RI south coast water was around 73 degrees.
A couple places might get up in that 75 zone.
Right now, you have to go to far southern or southwestern CT before you even see a 65 (Oxford, Groton, Bridgeport), but there is a “dewpoint boundary” advancing in this direction now. We’ll notice a spike later this evening.
85/66. Here.
Just hoping the people that are affected by the humidity do ok. I’ve been blessed with good health at 70 years old so I’m not bothered by the heat and humidity. When I was walking the beach at Siesta Key Beach the sweat was basically pouring of me I drank at least 2 liters of water throughout the day and was under the big ass umbrella. There is always a 10-15 mph blowing in off the Gulf of Mexico. Water was around 87. Real feel temperature was around 110.
Many parts of Southern England measured no precipitation at all in July. This has never happened in the 165 years of record-keeping. April through June were already abnormally dry, with minimal precipitation. It’s a major drought that’s having a bad impact on the harvest. Throw in 4 anomalous heat waves since May and you’ve got a serious situation. Most of the media attention has been elsewhere in Europe, with the wildfires and extreme heat. But England has been affected, too.
The river levels are way down as well. Several cruise companies have had to cancel their river cruises, alter itineraries, or transfer people from one ship to another by bus because portions of the rivers are too low to traverse.
https://www.foxnews.com/travel/cruises-thrown-chaos-drought-strands-ships-leaves-passengers-scrambling?msockid=0204edb4a87462281bddfedda9fb6364
In other news, Antarctica’s Concordia station recorded the coldest temperature on earth in the past 14 years: It got to -119F on July 18th. In 2012, the Russian Vostok station recorded a similar temperature.
Somehow I don’t think Boston will ever get that cold.
And Alert’s (Nunavut) long range forecast suggests it will dip under 32F during the day in about 2 weeks time and likwly stay sub-freezing until next (early) June.
Thanks, TK. Hope you’re enjoying Hampton!
Sox up 2-0 in bottom of the 4th. It’s Women in Baseball night so all female TV announcers which is very cool. (Not sure about radio.)
Love this.
My former student, Sean Newcomb, in to pitch for the ChiSox!!!
Very exciting I’m sure,
That’s really cool !
Wow. So exciting
I know it’s sticky and humid but I love Bermuda highs. No, don’t ask me why.
Sox won, 4-0. 9th series in a row!
72/63 at 10:35
Stefon Diggs agrees to a 1-year deal with the Washington Commanders for $12M.
Red Sox are now 1 game behind the 2nd place Yankees.
New post…