DAYS 1-5 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

A weak cold front will move toward and across the region from northwest to southeast later today and this evening, and other than a couple isolated showers and possibly a brief thunderstorm mainly north of I-90 in the window from about 3 p.m. on, it will be a dry day across the area, with just some clouds mixed with the sun, and continued low humidity too. High pressure builds into the region with dry weather and below normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, but fair and cooler than normal weather at the start of August is usually quite pleasant – and this will be. High pressure starts to shift off to the east by Thursday, turning the wind to southerly, which will start to increase the humidity slightly, but not that noticeably. It will become more noticeable by Friday though. That day our weather will also turn unsettled with a shower and thunderstorm threat ahead of a trough and approaching frontal system.

TODAY: Plenty of sun, more clouds later. Isolated showers and a possible thunderstorm for less than 10% of the region north of I-90 from 3 p.m. on. Highs 75-82. Dew point 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early with an isolated shower possible, then mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts possible early.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 75-82. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but local coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches possible in lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Dew point below 60. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Sunny in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point around 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)

A low pressure trough exits early August 5 with a shower threat lingering, but the balance of the August 5-6 weekend will be fair, mild, and dry as the trough pulls away and high pressure builds in. Next trough arrives with a shower/thunderstorm threat and higher humidity early next week, exiting with fair weather returning by midweek in a zonal flow weather pattern. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)

Similar pattern into mid August – zonal flow / weak trough. A couple unsettled weather chances that don’t longer. No significant sustained heat.

COMMENTARY

No heatwave for Boston. High temps during the “wicked hot” stretch there were 88, 91, 90, and 86. It was “wicked humid”, especially yesterday, but definitely not “wicked hot”. It’s time for the media to re-define itself and start telling things like they really are. They won’t do this, but it’s time they did. 🙂

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

It’s a “new world” out there. Yesterday’s unsettled weather is gone, the active weather pattern is taking a break, the humidity levels have dropped. We’re going to be in a generally comfortable air mass now for these 5 days, with only an uptick in humidity noted by the end of the period on Thursday. We’ll still be under a weak trough of low pressure aloft today until Tuesday. Today it just means some diurnal cloud development during the day, peaking in the afternoon for a decorative sky. In addition, a ribbon of higher level clouds is cutting rapidly eastward across southern portions of the region (though visible from further north in the southern sky) this morning, and another may appear similarly during this afternoon/evening in response to a weak and inconsequential disturbance passing to our south. Despite these cosmetic details, we have a beautiful Sunday to enjoy. Monday’s difference will be a weak cold front moving our way from Canada via northern New England, which will likely develop a broken line of showers and thunderstorms well to our north during the day, and some of those in isolated form, or late-day developing isolated ones, can impact a few areas generally west of I-95 and north of I-90, but as I said on yesterday’s update, don’t cancel any Monday outdoor plans based on this. Monday will still be quite a nice day across the region 99.9% of the time, and 100% of the time for anybody not tagged by an isolated shower late. Surface high pressure builds toward the region Tuesday with refreshing air, and I expect some diurnal clouds to pop up with the lingering trough aloft, but Wednesday with high pressure both surface and aloft, expect full sun. Both of these days will feature comfortable low humidity. That will start to go up but only slightly noticeably by Thursday as high pressure shifts offshore to allow a more southerly air flow, but with continued fair weather. So other than the remote shower chance late Monday, we have 5 dry days ahead of us, something we haven’t been able to forecast since May.

TODAY: Much sun, some clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point 53-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Patchy evening clouds then clear, but areas of late evening and overnight ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point 53-60. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Early ground fog patches dissipate. Lots of sun will have to share the sky with more clouds later. Isolated showers possible and a slight chance of a thunderstorm near day’s end north of I-90 and west of I-95. Highs 77-84. Dew point 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts possible early.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 75-82. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but local coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches possible in lower elevations. Lows 57-64. Dew point below 60. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Sunny in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point around 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)

A trough and frontal system move in from the west with higher humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances going up for August 4, may linger into early August 5 before the system pushes offshore with dry weather returning for the balance of the August 5-6 weekend. Humidity increase and shower chance return late in the period as the next trough approaches. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)

No big changes in the overall pattern with a generally zonal flow but a weak trough dominating. A few unsettled weather chances, fair weather between, timing to be fine-tuned later. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Boston can record an “official” heatwave with enough sun pushing their high temp to 90 today, but with highs of 91 & 90 the 2 previous days, this is hardly headline news. It’s July. What’s of more importance today is the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms with potential wind damage, instances of potentially large hail, and also areas of flash flooding possible from torrential rainfall. This is what the focus of today’s weather should be, not whether Boston’s high temp is 88, 89, 90, or 91. My prediction, by the way, is 89. So now that we have that taken care of, what’s the reason for the severe weather threat? Simple: Warm air, high humidity, cooling aloft, and an approaching disturbance and cold front. As higher dew points advect into the region this morning, some shower activity has been observed near the South Coast, but it looks like most of this will fade and move off to the east by mid morning and not really be a factor for a very long time. Much of the day will just end up rain-free, warm to hot, muggy, with a sun/cloud mix. While there can be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms popping up mainly from southern NH through the northern 2/3 of MA by mid afternoon, the “main event” looks a little later in timing, and its evolution may be a bit tricky. We probably see a fairly solid cluster or line of storms get going from NY to VT mid to late afternoon, then start an east southeastward march. But a dew point boundary and potential outflow boundaries from any advanced isolated cells make a region from around the Route 2 to I-90 corridors vulnerable to the eruption of new storms, and it’s entirely possible that this becomes the “new line” as the original one starts to weaken and “mush out” into a blob of more elevated convection. We’ll have to monitor the radar closely this afternoon to see how it goes. For this reason, I am leaning toward the Route 2 corridor southward as the most likely to see damaging storms with high winds and hail, as well as frequent lightning, which is not considered a factor in storm severity as far as warnings go. Any storm that contains lightning is a danger in itself, regardless of whether or not severe parameters are expected or achieved through hail 1″ or greater in diameter and wind gusts of 58 MPH or greater. The flash flood threat is greatest in areas that see torrential rainfall for more than just a few minutes, and in some instances where storms can train over the same region for a while it becomes a potentially bigger issue. In short, be on the look-out for storms and prepare to take action to protect yourself. Many outdoor activities on a summer weekend leave many vulnerable, so I can’t stress enough to keep an eye on the weather today! Regardless of the details of the event’s evolution, it will come to an end as storms exits via the South Coast and Cape Cod early tonight. While the South Coast & Cape are not immune to severe weather today, that region may be spared the worst with just a couple isolated stronger storms there in a more general area of showers – but like other areas keep an eye on trends. This is not strictly diurnally driven and sometimes enough of a boundary / lift of air in that region can keep storms going for a while. Tonight, a cold front sweeps through and the dew point which seems like it’s been 60+ forever will go to below 60 across the region, though it may take until mid or late morning Sunday to do so closer to the South Coast. Sunday will be a comfortable, rain-free day, but expect some diurnal clouds to pop up, more of the decorative variety. Monday’s weather looks fairly pleasant too. The dew point may tick back up a few degrees but really only to around 60 or just over it. This takes place ahead of a weak disturbance that may help initiate a quick shower over some locations during the afternoon or evening. This looks like a minor event, isolated in nature for showers, and favoring southwestern NH and central MA. Don’t cancel any Monday plans! We’ll welcome August with a sun/cloud mix but comfortable air Tuesday as a weak trough is still around but probably not enough for any showers. Wednesday, high pressure builds in surface and aloft with awesome weather!

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers South Coast / Cape Cod until mid morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible mid afternoon and becoming more likely late afternoon mainly north of I-90. Widespread evening showers/thunderstorms. Any storms can be strong to severe with potential for damaging wind, large hail, frequent lightning, and flash flooding. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH can be variable, strong, and gusty near storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms end by late evening, lastly near the South Coast / Cape Cod. Areas of fog forming. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to upper 50s north of I-90 but still staying around or over 60 to the south. Wind variable becoming NW-N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: A sun/cloud mix. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s north to south, gradually decreasing during the day. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: A sun/cloud mix. An isolated shower possible by late-day mainly central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 78-85. Dew point around 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point below 55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Dew point below 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point below 55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point below 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but local coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

Surface high pressure shifts to the east August 3 with fair weather and becoming slightly more humid. Trough / front from the west brings a shower/thunderstorm chance August 4. August 5-6 weekend looks mainly dry, less humid to start, more humid to finish, then some additional unsettled weather is possible by the end of the period with higher humidity. No significant heat expected.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

A weak westerly flow and weak trough much of the time in the region. This pattern is seasonable to cooler than normal with a couple shower chances, but not overly unsettled.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

A relatively minor hot spell goes on today into Saturday before a big change. Portions of the region saw showers and thunderstorms late Thursday, some of the storms producing damaging wind gusts and torrential rainfall, along with some instances of frequent lightning, while other areas were less impacted. This was expected. Today, while we keep the heat, we get a little reduction in humidity for much of the region as a down-sloping wind from the west drives the dew point down for a while. The exception will be the South Coast where the muggy air will be stubborn. This higher humidity then makes its way northward again tonight into Saturday, and as it does so, a few showers and thunderstorms can form in response to the increased dew points, especially later Saturday morning with a little help from the sun’s heating. But not far behind this is a cold front which will charge across the region, pulled by low pressure passing to our north. This front can and likely will trigger a round or two of showers and thunderstorms, with again some severe weather potential. It’s once again important to note that when meteorologists talk about severe weather potential, it’s important to focus on the word “potential” and its definition, and also keep in mind that severe weather is often localized, sometimes hyper-localized, and that the majority of the region will not see events with the storms that qualify as “severe”. Nevertheless many areas can see a gusty shower including torrential downpours, and some can see more powerful thunderstorms at some point Saturday afternoon, maybe lingering into early evening toward the South Coast, as the cold front pushes through. Behind this front comes a shot of Canadian air with cooler temperatures and significantly lower dew points – lowest we’ve seen in quite a while, to close out the month of July on Sunday and Monday. I’d like to forecast unlimited sun for Sunday and Monday, but I cannot. The reason is we’ll have a weak cyclonic flow with a hint of an upper trough over the region, which can allow for some diurnal cloud development each day. Pop-up isolated showers are even possible on Sunday, favoring northern MA and southern NH, but I wouldn’t cancel any plans over this slight chance. Tuesday’s weather looks fair and seasonably warm as high pressure builds over the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95, hottest interior valleys, except cooler portions of South Coast. Dew point lowering through the 60s except staying in upper 60s to lower 70s. South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH in the morning, diminishing slightly in the afternoon when some local coastal sea breezes are possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. An isolated shower is possible mainly north of I-90. Highs 76-83. Dew point below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point below 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point below 55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point below 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

Upper level pattern will feature generally weak zonal (west to east) flow with a weak trough in place, axis mostly to our east. Surface high pressure sits over the region to start the period then shifts to the east allowing humidity to build back in by August 3, then a low pressure area and frontal system from the west brings a shower/thunderstorm opportunity about August 4 followed by the next shot of drier air from Canada for August 5-6.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

The upper level generally zonal flow pattern continues, but with a trough a little further west, putting us back into a more humid pattern with a couple more shower / t-storm opportunities. No sustained major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 27-31)

We have 2 days with thunderstorm threats out of the next 5 as the pattern continues to shift. While I think the talk of the heat was over-hyped by media, yes it’s going to be quite warm to hot today and tomorrow, and part of Saturday anyway, and anybody working outside or sensitive to heat should be aware and be cautious. Our bigger concern is a severe weather threat today as a trough slices through the humid, warm to hot air later. Limiting factor: Debris clouds from convective activity to our west yesterday. We should destabilize enough to see a broken line of thunderstorms moving west northwest to east southeast across the region during the second half of the afternoon to the early evening. The orientation of the line suggests that some cells can move over the same areas for a little while, resulting in a flash flood threat especially due to previous rain and still saturated ground. Hail is a threat in stronger storms. The atmosphere also contains enough wind shear for possible rotating storms which can produce isolated tornadoes. Downburst and straight line damage are more likely though. A few isolated storms may occur ahead of the line by mid afternoon, and the line will likely be most “together” from I-90 northward, before it starts to lose organization and weaken but still consist of a few strong storms as it presses south and east. Watch radar closely / listen to any warnings from NWS / avoid “warnings” from non-met pages! The rest of the forecast is pretty much unchanged. Tomorrow’s a hot day, slightly lower dew points (except the South Coast), behind the trough, but still with high pressure aloft. Saturday’s our next thunderstorm threat, and timing and coverage will depend on the speed of the front. Right now, still leaning earlier, with details to be worked out. But early idea, we likely have another severe storm threat at least for some portion of the region. Then we get a shot of cooler (but still nice) and much drier air for the final 2 days of July – something we have not seen in quite some time around here.

TODAY: Intervals of clouds and sun. Showers and thunderstorms likely by mid to late afternoon into evening, and some can be quite strong to severe. Highs 86-93. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms diminishing evening. Partly cloudy with patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 89-96, hottest interior valleys, except cooler portions of South Coast. Dew point lowering through the 60s except staying in upper 60s to lower 70s. South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH in the morning, diminishing slightly in the afternoon when some local coastal sea breezes are possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Dew point below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point below 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)

Zonal flow – trough from eastern Canada to New England. Pattern cooler (near to below normal temps), fewer shower chances.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)

Zonal flow – trough Great Lakes. More humid, warmer but no sustained heat, more shower chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 26-30)

Summer heat builds in our region over the next few days, but they won’t all be completely similar days. The pattern of air mass changes is actually active during this stretch, and today we’re in a westerly air flow of slightly lower dew point air. It will still be a very warm day with high temps making a run at 90, maybe surpassing it by a little bit in some locations. Absent today will be any rain chance, so other than needing sun protection and hydration, it’s a great outside day (beach, etc.). Things change tonight as the wind shifts to southwest and transports in higher dew points. Some cloudiness may move into the region overnight and around dawn into a part of the morning – debris from upstream thunderstorms later today, limiting any early-day sun, but it will return and heat us up by later morning into the afternoon with more areas reaching or surpassing 90, with a heat index in the middle to upper 90s due to the higher humidity. The concern for Thursday is the later-day thunderstorm threat as a trough of low pressure moves quickly into the region. A couple isolated storms can pop up ahead of what will probably be a broken to solid line of storms to cross much of the region sometime between 3PM and sunset. The potential is there for severe weather to occur – highest threat is damaging wind, but large hail can also occur with stronger cells in the line, and even brief tornado occurrences cannot be rule out. Any activity will sweep off to the east and southeast and dissipate during the evening, and we’ll be left with a quieter but warm and muggy night. But behind this trough we’ll see the wind shift back to the west for Friday, enough to create a down-slope effect (drying of air coming from the hills / mountains to our west). So despite being another hot day, the dew point will fall to the middle and perhaps lower 60s after being around or just over 70 Thursday. But that’s also temporary as we will see a wind shift back to southwest Friday night into Saturday with another shot of higher humidity. How hot it can get Saturday will depend on the timing of a cold front and associated clouds / showers / thunderstorms coming from the northwest. I think the timing will be fast enough that widespread 90+ temperatures can be avoided, but even if it doesn’t get that hot, it will be quite muggy until the front goes by, along with the shower/storm threat. I’ll try to nail down the timing/details next update. Assuming the front is quick enough, Saturday night sees a dew point crash, and Sunday will most certainly be relatively cooler and much drier. Also of note: We’ll see a hazy look to the sky at times the next few days as we still have some areas of wildfire smoke from Canada that the upper winds will transport through the Northeast. Most of if not all of this will be aloft enough not to have an impact on the air quality.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds increase overnight. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Intervals of clouds and sun. Showers and thunderstorms likely by mid to late afternoon into evening, and some can be quite strong to severe. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms diminishing evening. Partly cloudy with patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible. Highs 89-96, hottest interior valleys, except cooler portions of South Coast. Dew point lowering through the 60s except staying in upper 60s South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH in the morning, diminishing slightly in the afternoon when some local coastal sea breezes are possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point rising to 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Dew point below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Low humidity with fair weather July 31. Higher humidity, no significant heat, and some shower opportunities with a weak through of low pressure moving back into the region in the early days of August. Can refine day-to-day details as it gets closer.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)

Overall pattern dominated by a weak trough. A shot of drier air from Canada at some point, preceded by shower and thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 25-29)

Some summer heat is on the way, but it will be a fairly short-lived bout of it as the pattern does not support long stretches of hot weather. We’ll be quite warm and more humid today and a shower and thunderstorm threat exists from mid afternoon to early evening as a trough approaches and passes. Any storms can be strong to locally severe but not expecting widespread activity. While high pressure builds over the region aloft and a surface high settles just to the south of our region Wednesday we’ll have a very warm but rain-free day with moderate humidity, then a more classic hot stretch is ours for Thursday and Friday along with high humidity. Contrary to my previous outlook, I’m shifting the higher thunderstorm threat forecast to Thursday as a pre-frontal trough seems to want to be a vigorous player. Timing looks late afternoon / early evening for the highest threat across the region, generally west to east, and will tweak this over the next 2 updates. High temps will reach or slightly exceed 90 in many areas on Thursday, and along with high humidity the heat indices can climb well into the 90s. This will be the case again Friday, so plan accordingly if you are to be outside. Friday’s thunderstorm threat will be more limited than Thursday’s between the pre-frontal trough and an approaching cold front, the timing of which is slow enough that it looks like a passage sometime on Saturday. Still have to nail down the timing of that front and the resultant shower and thunderstorm threat, which also has a diurnal heating component to it. Expect a shower and thunderstorm chance at any time on Saturday and I’ll also fine-tune the timing on this in upcoming updates. I do not think Saturday will be as hot as the 2 days that precede it due to more cloudiness, but the high humidity is likely to be still be here ahead of the front.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms mid afternoon to early evening. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny start then a sun/cloud mix. Showers and thunderstorms likely by mid to late afternoon into evening, and some can be quite strong. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms diminishing evening. Partly cloudy with patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible. Highs 89-96, hottest interior valleys, except cooler portions of South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Canadian air mass brings dry weather and lower humidity July 30-31. Higher humidity and a shower chance returns the first few days of August as a trough of low pressure moves into the region, but no significant heat.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)

Overall pattern dominated by a weak trough. A shot of drier air from Canada at some point, preceded by shower and thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 24-28)

An adjustment of the weather pattern has occurred so we are no longer in the very humid, frequently rainy one, so even though you see shower and thunderstorm chances mentioned a few times in this 5-day forecast, it’s not going to be a wet week – in fact considerably drier than many recent times. We enjoyed some less humid Canadian-born air over the weekend, and it will still be mid-summer-comfy to start this week with humidity not that high today and Tuesday, and even not so bad into Wednesday even though we start to heat up a bit. We’ll be influenced by weak weather systems into mid week with minor boundary lines for dew point and a couple weak troughs will be in the region, and can help focus a few isolated showers and very low chance of thunderstorms any afternoon through Wednesday, with the extreme majority of the region remaining rain-free. By late Thursday, convection from a trough and frontal boundary moving into the Great Lakes can reach western and northern New England with a remnant of boundary-triggered shower or thunderstorm potentially making it into far northwestern reaches of the WHW forecast area by the evening hours, and the shower and thunderstorm chance then goes up for the remainder of the region Friday afternoon as the front presses closer. Thursday and Friday will be hotter and humid days as high pressure ahead of this front shifts offshore and builds in a more classic summertime set-up…

TODAY: High clouds filter the sun while a few diurnal clouds pop up later with a chance of a few isolated showers / thunderstorms, most of them west of I-95 and north of I-90. Highs 81-88, coolest South Coast. Dew point upper 50s to middle 60s, lowest in interior hills, highest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lower elevation overnight fog patches. Lows 62-69. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon favoring southeastern MA / RI as well as central MA to southwestern NH. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Remote chance of an isolated late-day shower or thunderstorm in central MA and/or southwestern NH. Highs 84-91. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. An end-of-day shower or thunderstorm can reach southwestern NH. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An early-evening shower possible southwestern NH. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible, favoring areas west of I-95. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Frontal boundary moves through July 29, may start humid with showers and thunderstorms possible then lower humidity and cooling trend through July 30. High pressure builds in with mainly fair weather and more seasonably warm and moderate humid conditions July 31 through August 2.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 3-7)

Indications remain for weak troughing, higher humidity, and some shower / thunderstorm chances – a weaker version of a pattern we’ve seen much of the summer. We may need to watch for tropical activity off the coast south or east of New England by the end of the period.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 23-27)

A brief discussion for today’s update so I can kick you out to enjoy the very nice weather! A ribbon of high clouds behind an offshore frontal boundary filters and limits the sun a little for a portion of the morning, and some lower clouds / fog sit over Nantucket, but that will improve and the high clouds will shift eastward with the area overall enjoying abundant sun and lower humidity with seasonable temperatures – warmest inland, coolest at the beaches where light sea breezes will develop. Dew point temperatures today will range from about 55 to 62 by this afternoon after being a little higher than that to start the day, and will be highest along the coast where the temperature will be the coolest. High pressure hangs on Monday and even a sliver of it remains over the region between two disturbances through Tuesday. One low pressure area, small and weak, will track south of our area later Monday into Tuesday, spreading some of its high level clouds in. Another disturbance approaching from the northwest later Tuesday will be slow enough that its diurnal showers will never reach the region. They should dissipate and just remnant clouds should cross the area Tuesday night, based on current timing. Dew points creep up a tiny bit on Tuesday, but it’ll still be relatively comfortable. Even Wednesday, which is going to be a warmer to borderline hot day, even at the coast, with a westerly wind, the dew point will not sky rocket, held in check by the down sloping action of the westerly breeze off the hills / mountains to our west. For the best combo of warmth without uncomfortable humidity, Wednesday is the day. High pressure off the US East Coast will help intensify the heat a little more and bump up the humidity by Thursday, but I’m not expecting any thunderstorms that day due to it being too warm aloft and therefore too stable, also lacking any surface mechanism to trigger them, so just expect a hot summer day with fair weather.

TODAY: Early clouds eastern areas, then sunny. Highs 81-88 except cooling back to the 70s coastal areas. Dew point middle 50s to lower 60s, highest along the shoreline. Wind NW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind variable up to SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches may form in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds, then sun dominates. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Heat, humidity, and thunderstorm chances July 28 as a cold front approaches and high pressure sits offshore. A shot of Canadian air brings warm weather and lower humidity for the final few days of July before humidity and unsettled weather returns to greet the arrival of August.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)

Indications are trending toward weak troughing, higher humidity, and some shower / thunderstorm chances – a weaker version of a pattern we’ve seen much of the summer.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 22-26)

We’re finally going to be released from the grip of the unsettled summer pattern, at least for now. It starts right away too. First the cold front that helped trigger the thunderstorms of last evening is right near our eastern coast to start the day, but will drift offshore as the day goes on. Lots of clouds sit across southern NH and eastern MA to start the day, but these will dissipate and move out with time. Elsewhere, more sunshine starts the day. The region as a whole will end up in a sun/cloud mix this afternoon with some fair-weather diurnal cloud development. Look for the dew point to edge downward behind the cold front as a light westerly air flow takes over. Sunday and Monday will be two nice weather days with relatively low humidity in comparison to many recent days. It won’t be polar dry, but dew points can drop below 60 for many areas for the first time in quite a while. We’ll see abundant sun both days, but some high and mid level clouds may increase near the South Coast later Monday in response to a weak area of low pressure to the south. This low should pass harmlessly out to sea Monday night. Meanwhile, weak high pressure located over the northern Appalachians will be enough to keep our weather fair during this period. It will shift offshore Tuesday allowing the humidity to come back up a little. Previously, I’ve had a shower and thunderstorm threat in the forecast for Tuesday, but the trough I’m targeting to trigger this may be a little later in timing, passing by without much fanfare later Tuesday night or early Wednesday with more clouds than anything else, so for now this period of time has a drier forecast. This also includes the balance of Wednesday when the wind shifts back to the west but it’s quite warm thanks to a stronger influence from upper level high pressure over the western Atlantic.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy southern NH and eastern MA with sun elsewhere this morning. A more even sun/cloud mix this afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest Cape Cod. Dew point lowering toward 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening, then clearing. Ground fog forming in some inland lower elevations Lows 57-64, coolest interior lower elevations. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind WNW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point around 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind variable up to SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches may form in lower elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds, then sun dominates. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 27-31)

A mini hot spell July 27-28 with more 90+ high temps possible in the region. Thunderstorms may arrive later July 28 depending on the timing of a disturbance from the west. If it’s slower, July 29 can start unsettled but overall looks like a fair, seasonably warm, and slightly less humid July 29-31 period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 1-5)

August starts with a pattern readjustment to a ridge central US, a weak through Northeast, and high pressure further east in the western Atlantic. Indications are for enough northwesterly air flow for a less wet set-up than the previous trough pattern, and warmer weather but no long-lasting hot spells.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 21-25)

A more “typical” mid summer pattern is now ours. While in general, the large scale pattern hasn’t shifted in a major way, it’s relaxed enough to end the more persistent humid and unsettled weather and open the door for a dry air intrusion from Canada and more rain-free days than rain-threat days. But we do have some unsettled weather to get through before that marked shot of drier air. First, we have low pressure passing to our northwest today and tonight before it exits via southeastern Canada. Its warm front will edge north and northeast, with our region still north of it for much of today. A batch of thunderstorms that occurred to our west last night entered western New England in the early morning hours, and will continue its decay / dissipation process as it moves eastward, with no more than light showers surviving into the WHW forecast area west to east this morning and midday. Other showers and storms that generate during the day to our west can reach southwestern NH, central MA, and CT by later in the day as the warm front finally pushes through and a cold front approaches from the west. This front will move into the region tonight when most of our shower and thunderstorm activity will occur. Due to lack of heating for storms based on the evening / night timing, I don’t expect the storms to be all that strong, but a few isolated downpours and lightning displays are possible, so keep that in mind if you do have evening plans. Activity will settle down overnight, leaving only a few showers possible near the coast, especially Cape Cod, by morning, before the front moves offshore into the Atlantic waters. An offshore low pressure wave may keep cloudiness moving across the region at times during the day Saturday, so despite the disappearing rain chances, it will be slow to completely clear out, sky-wise. But you will notice a reduction in humidity during the day. This will set us up for a fabulous summer day on Sunday with abundant sun, seasonable warmth, and lower humidity with dew points falling to under 60 for the first time in quite a while across most of the region. And you get to enjoy this for an extra day Monday as high pressure hangs on. Tuesday’s weather will feature a bit more humidity and a later-day thunderstorm chance as a disturbance approaches from the west again.

TODAY: Most sun early. Clouds dominate. A shower possible mid morning to noon southwestern NH, central MA, CT, possibly as far east as the I-95 belt. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms later afternoon mostly I-95 belt westward. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially before midnight. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A few showers possible morning eastern areas, favoring Cape Cod. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in lower elevation locations. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point near to slightly below 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s to near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm by late day. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 26-30)

A slightly more established west to northwest flow with less trough in the region allows for very warm weather and limited shower/thunderstorm chances, with July 28 being a more likely day to see unsettled weather surrounded by rain-free days. May see a few more 90+ high temp days for portions of the region but not an indication of sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Large scale pattern features high pressure in the central US and a weak trough between the Great Lakes and Canadian Maritime region. For our area this means a couple shower/thunderstorm chances but a less pronounced unsettled pattern than previously, and no sustained major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 20-24)

A continued gradual shift of the pattern continues in the coming days. Today’s weather is fair, and while still humid by definition, you’ll notice it doesn’t have the saturated feel that the air has had many a day recently. Moving about outside will not make you feel like you’re running laps in a sauna. Any early-morning fog in lower elevations will dissipate quickly, and sunshine will be dominant a good part of today before some clouds start to show up later. These clouds will move in more aggressively tonight, both high and mid level clouds from the southwest ahead of a warm front, and some lower stratus clouds from an air flow off the ocean to the south bringing in increased lower level moisture. A couple showers and even a thunderstorm may wander into and/or develop in portions of the region later this evening and overnight with instability ahead of the warm front. Friday’s weather will be fairly cloudy, humid, and mild, with a passing shower at times, and a thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, especially inland, away from a more stabilizing influence of a southeast to south wind as the warm front goes by. The cold front associated with low pressure passing to our north will lazily move across the region from west to east Friday evening and overnight and still can trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, but I’m not expecting a widespread heavy rainfall this time. Also of note, while not as thick as recently, some near-surface wildfire smoke from Canada lingers through Friday before being pushed out. Saturday’s weather will feature lowering humidity as the front moves offshore, but a cool pool of air aloft and just enough moisture left at the surface fires off diurnal cloud development as the sun works on things, and a few of these clouds may grow enough to produce isolated showers and/or thunderstorms. Again, not a widespread issue, but just something to keep an eye out for if you have outside plans, which I would not cancel for this remote chance of getting rained on. For the most part, Saturday’s to be nice. Sunday is the pick of the weekend though with lots of sun, seasonable warmth, but noticeably lower humidity – the lowest dew points in some time. High pressure moves over the region with fair and seasonable weather on Monday, an early candidate for the pick of next week…

TODAY: Sunshine dominant much of day, with patchy clouds later on. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind N shifting to E-SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds take over. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Areas of fog especially South Coast. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind E-SE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog especially near the coast. Episodic showers and the chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH increasing to 10-15 MPH later.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in lower elevation locations. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point near to slightly below 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 25-29)

While the general weather pattern features a weak trough wanting to be in the Great Lakes and Northeast, it’s not as pronounced a wet pattern as previously and features a little more zonal (west to east) flow overall. Initially we see high pressure offshore and a disturbance moving through with a shower and thunderstorm chance to start the period, and maybe another around July 28, with fair weather days outnumbering unsettled ones. Humidity spikes higher early in the period and manageable thereafter. Remaining absent is any sustained significant heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

General pattern favors a weak trough Great Lakes to Northeast with a couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with higher humidity, and drier interludes between. Continued no sign of any “heatwave” type conditions.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 19-23)

A gradual easing of the ongoing pattern takes place now, with less frequent rain, humidity down a few notches, and a bit more dry air sneaking in from Canada (especially over the weekend). It will still be humid, with dew points generally above 60, but absent will be the 70+ dew points except possibly a few locations on Friday. Also, Friday is going to be be the only significantly unsettled day out of the next 5. Today carries only a minor chance of an isolated shower mainly to the south of Boston as a weak frontal boundary drifts away from the coast to offshore. We have areas of fog as well as continued Canadian wildfire smoke over the region today, but both will make an exit, the fog first, the smoke later. The next trough of low pressure approaches late Thursday with clouds moving back in, leading to our showery Friday. While parameters will be missing for severe storms, weak steering and plentiful moisture sets the table for slow-moving showers and embedded thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, over a region that’s recently been frequently saturated. Therefore, the flooding issue can trigger easily, so keep that in mind if you live in a flood-prone area or will be traveling. Improvement comes this weekend. The trough lingers just long enough to allow for isolated showers to pop up on Saturday, but this will be much more the exception than the rule, and then a push of lower dew point air from Canada will make Sunday the nicest day in quite a while by opinion or many people.

TODAY: Smoke/haze/fog limit the sun early. A sun/cloud mix follows, with most clouds South Coast morning-midday. Isolated showers possible RI & southeastern MA. Highs 81-88 except cooler in some coastal communities. Wind W up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. A few fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and shower chance increasing late. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 70. Wind S to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in lower elevation locations. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point near to slightly below 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 24-28)

Moderate humidity and dry weather is expected through July 24 to start next week, before the next trough, albeit weak, moves into the region with increased humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances July 25 and/or July 26. Drying trend later in the period. No sustained significant heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

General pattern favors a weak trough Great Lakes to Northeast with a few opportunities for showers/storms, somewhat humid but a couple drier interludes, and no sustained major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 18-22)

Today we deal with areas of fog, smoke, and a thunderstorm threat, along with continued high humidity. This happens as a weak cold front heads toward the region and some of the smoke that entered the region both surface and aloft hangs around for a while today. The early-day fog will dissipate where it’s occurring. This afternoon and early evening we’ll have to watch for the development of showers and thunderstorms, mainly near and west of the I-95 belt. They likely never make it to southeastern MA and most of RI though with the timing too late and not enough momentum before they dissipate. The frontal boundary will be crossing those same areas tomorrow through about midday though and can help initiate a few isolated showers in the regions missed today before it moves offshore. Otherwise, expect a warm and generally rain-free day Wednesday, still humid but the dew point will be down a few notches over today, maybe enough to notice. Sunshine will become dominant on Wednesday, but there may still be some lingering smoke in the air before it gets pushed out. Thursday, we’ll see the return of cloudiness ahead of the next trough, but right now it looks like it will be a rain-free day across the region. That trough moving into the area on Friday brings a surge of higher humidity and a much better chance of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. It starts to move off to the east Saturday, but is close enough with high enough humidity lingering that we can’t rule out some additional pop up showers and storms that day, but with less coverage than Friday.

TODAY: Limited sun due to both clouds and wildfire smoke both surface and aloft. Areas of fog early. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon favoring areas near and west of I-95. Any storms can be strong. Highs 81-88, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny RI and southeastern MA until midday with an isolated shower possible, otherwise mostly sunny. Areas of smoke/haze. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. A few fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and shower chance increasing late. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point 70+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 23-27)

Fair, lower humidity July 23-24 with a modified Canadian air mass here. Return to higher humidity and shower/t-storm chances mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

General pattern favors a weak trough Great Lakes to Northeast with a few opportunities for showers/storms, somewhat humid but a couple drier interludes, and no sustained major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)

The more things change, the more they stay the same? The pattern changes this week, but it also stays the same. How is that possible? The overall pattern on the large scale doesn’t change too much. Yes, blocking high pressure over Greenland weakens and has a little less control of the weather as a result, but it’s still going to be there, and still induce a fairly persistent trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes and Northeast. But this week’s set-up does allow for a little more efficient eastward movement of systems moving through the trough. So while we do see some unsettled periods, we get a couple breaks. The “break” days are today and Wednesday. A weak area of high pressure builds in today now that we’ve said goodbye to the very wet weather of yesterday, and it’ll be a warm day, still humid but not oppressive, but absent of a rain chance across the region. You will notice, however, that the blue sky is not all that blue, and this is the familiar sight of wildfire smoke from Canada which is still around the region at times. We will have it today, but it is mostly aloft. A cold front will approach the region on Tuesday, and while we get through a fair amount of the day rain-free, a shower and thunderstorm threat looms for the later afternoon and evening from west to east. The timing of this front and a lack of strong support may mean that showers and storms struggle to survive all the way eastward, so look for the greatest chance of occurrence and the heaviest rainfall to the west, with a decreasing chance as you head east. Can’t rule out a few stronger showers and storms right to the coast though, so be aware of that if you have outdoor plans Tuesday afternoon and evening. Whatever activity does occur dissipates and moves out by late evening and then it’s time for another break time through Wednesday when high pressure will build in. This area of high pressure will carry a little drier air with it, so the dew point will come down somewhat – not to polar dry levels, but you’ll notice it. But remember we’re still in a somewhat unsettled pattern, and the next low pressure system will be set to impact the region with a shower and thunderstorm threat later Thursday into Friday, based on current timing.

TODAY: Lots of clouds especially southeastern MA into mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon may organize to a line or line segments late afternoon / early evening. Highest chance for heaviest downpours I-95 belt and westward. Highs 81-88, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. A few fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Late-day showers possible in western areas (southwestern NH, central MA, eastern CT). Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely through midday. Becoming partly sunny during the afternoon with an additional shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)

While the overall pattern remains generally similar, a shot of drier air from Canada follows the late week system to bring dew points down and eliminate the region chance for the July 22-23 weekend. Humidity and shower chance comes back during the early to middle portion of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)

The final days of July feature a similar pattern. A slightly drier shot of air from Canada may follow a couple shower threats in an overall humid and seasonably warm pattern with no sustained significant heat.