Wednesday July 26 2023 Forecast (7:19AM)

106 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 26-30)

Summer heat builds in our region over the next few days, but they won’t all be completely similar days. The pattern of air mass changes is actually active during this stretch, and today we’re in a westerly air flow of slightly lower dew point air. It will still be a very warm day with high temps making a run at 90, maybe surpassing it by a little bit in some locations. Absent today will be any rain chance, so other than needing sun protection and hydration, it’s a great outside day (beach, etc.). Things change tonight as the wind shifts to southwest and transports in higher dew points. Some cloudiness may move into the region overnight and around dawn into a part of the morning – debris from upstream thunderstorms later today, limiting any early-day sun, but it will return and heat us up by later morning into the afternoon with more areas reaching or surpassing 90, with a heat index in the middle to upper 90s due to the higher humidity. The concern for Thursday is the later-day thunderstorm threat as a trough of low pressure moves quickly into the region. A couple isolated storms can pop up ahead of what will probably be a broken to solid line of storms to cross much of the region sometime between 3PM and sunset. The potential is there for severe weather to occur – highest threat is damaging wind, but large hail can also occur with stronger cells in the line, and even brief tornado occurrences cannot be rule out. Any activity will sweep off to the east and southeast and dissipate during the evening, and we’ll be left with a quieter but warm and muggy night. But behind this trough we’ll see the wind shift back to the west for Friday, enough to create a down-slope effect (drying of air coming from the hills / mountains to our west). So despite being another hot day, the dew point will fall to the middle and perhaps lower 60s after being around or just over 70 Thursday. But that’s also temporary as we will see a wind shift back to southwest Friday night into Saturday with another shot of higher humidity. How hot it can get Saturday will depend on the timing of a cold front and associated clouds / showers / thunderstorms coming from the northwest. I think the timing will be fast enough that widespread 90+ temperatures can be avoided, but even if it doesn’t get that hot, it will be quite muggy until the front goes by, along with the shower/storm threat. I’ll try to nail down the timing/details next update. Assuming the front is quick enough, Saturday night sees a dew point crash, and Sunday will most certainly be relatively cooler and much drier. Also of note: We’ll see a hazy look to the sky at times the next few days as we still have some areas of wildfire smoke from Canada that the upper winds will transport through the Northeast. Most of if not all of this will be aloft enough not to have an impact on the air quality.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Clouds increase overnight. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Intervals of clouds and sun. Showers and thunderstorms likely by mid to late afternoon into evening, and some can be quite strong to severe. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms diminishing evening. Partly cloudy with patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible. Highs 89-96, hottest interior valleys, except cooler portions of South Coast. Dew point lowering through the 60s except staying in upper 60s South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH in the morning, diminishing slightly in the afternoon when some local coastal sea breezes are possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point rising to 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW by late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Dew point below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Low humidity with fair weather July 31. Higher humidity, no significant heat, and some shower opportunities with a weak through of low pressure moving back into the region in the early days of August. Can refine day-to-day details as it gets closer.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)

Overall pattern dominated by a weak trough. A shot of drier air from Canada at some point, preceded by shower and thunderstorm chances.

106 thoughts on “Wednesday July 26 2023 Forecast (7:19AM)”

    1. I think SPC will probably go with just a severe thunderstorm watch, but we’ll see what they decide.

      1. Could be for sure. In the past, often times spc issues a tornado watch when they paint the 5% area, but clearly not always, thus my word “might”.

        We’ll see what future updates reveal.

        NAM continues to lead the way with the most robust tornado parameters with the 3km Nam, hrrr and gfs slowly coming around.

        waiting on 12z runs for the latest trends.

        I am currently leaning towards them issuing the tornado watch. We shall see .

        Many thanks

  5. Last evening, it was the coolest the house has been in weeks. Very comfortable. AND this morning, I am CHILLY!
    I actually feel cold. Perhaps I shouldn’t have put on shorts again today. Jeans may have been better. 🙂

  6. Another snippet of misinformation from what used to be a great radio station, WBZ…
    “The record setting heat dome that has encapsulated most of the nation all summer….”

    No, that is incorrect.

    Yes there has been a dome of high heat in portions of the South that has then bubbled into the West in recent days. Obviously it’s been sitting over the southwest for the better part of a month.

    But as for encapsulating most of the nation… Completely wrong. The 120 day period and the 60-day period leading to mid July featured near to slightly below normal temperatures across the majority of the lower 48.

    This stuff has to be reported correctly.

    1. Wish I could “like” this. Agree 100%. Similarly, the reports from Europe focus on the devastating heat wave in parts of the continent. While this is definitely worth reporting, from the accounts you often come away thinking all of Europe is ablaze in heat. This is simply not true. Practically none of the reports I’ve seen mention that a large portion of Western and Northern Europe have had below normal temperatures in July with above normal rainfall.

    4. I do not recall when BZ radio was a reliable source for weather, although I suspect it may have been at one point . It has to be several decades since I was frustrated enough to stop listening to it. It was before I also ruled out TWC and any national weather source and learned to rely on our local Mets.

      1. I’m getting really really close 🙂

        It’s been hard to let go because I’ve been with them a long time.

        Hey does anyone remember the very short lived (early 1980s) news stations in Boston, WGTR aka G-1060?

  10. I wonder if someone could help me with the difference between straight line wind and microburst. I always thought straight line was used to differentiate damage from a rotating system. And then I thought microburst was a type of straight line. And I’m not sure where derecho fits in but thought it was delated also.

    I know this is simplified. Thank you.

  12. 12Z NAM 18Z significant tornado parameter for tomorrow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=stp&rh=2023072612&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    21Z

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=stp&rh=2023072612&fh=33&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    This represents a little bit of a back off since the 6Z run.
    Perhaps coming back to Earth?

    3KM NAM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam4km&p=stp&rh=2023072612&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    NOT nearly as robust, but still a risk.

    Can’t wait to see the 2-day outlook from SPC due aroun
    1:30 PM

  13. My gut says, 1:30 PM SPC update for tomorrow
    will reduce tornado threat from 5% to 2%.
    We shall see how far off I am. 🙂

  14. Thanks, TK.

    I have a question regarding what not to do during a thunderstorm. When I was younger my parents and other adults said “don’t run water during a thunderstorm.” Is that true? Also, should you shut off electrical appliances like theTV during a thunderstorm or talk on a landline telephone? Silly questions, I know.

    1. Absolutely not silly. Your parents were right about anything to do with plumbing. Philip mentioned the tv a few days ago. I found a couple of links below.

      https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/lightning/faq.html#:~:text=Lightning%20can%20travel%20through%20plumbing,pipes%20than%20with%20metal%20pipes.

      https://www.weather.gov/safety/lightning-myths

      All of this said. I am told that new houses are grounded. Does that completely convince me that nothing can happen? Nope. I tend to want to turn AC off but my SIL tells me because our house is new and grounded that it doesn’t matter. It doesn’t make sense yo me since the condenser / heat pump / minisplits are outside of the house.

      1. Wow. Thought so. I generally don’t use water during a storm but have briefly talked on phone w/cord. Also, I do leave on the TV to see what’s going on w/the weather, radar, etc. during a storm. Our home I don’t think is grounded. Our air-conditioner is in window. We leave it on during storms. Will have to change that. One thing we cannot change is all the trees around our house. Always afraid of lightning/high winds during storms w/branches and trees falling on home. We don’t own our own home; we live in senior housing so we have no choice. of getting trees cut down. Tomorrow’s forecast scary if we get high winds or tornado.

    2. Immediately shut off TV and some electrical appliances. Do not talk on a land line telephone.
      Shut off A/C. Many years ago my aunt left hers on while out shopping and when she returned, it was completely blown out.
      Back when I used to own a computer I always disconnected the plug and switched to battery until the storm passed. I don’t know for certain if it was necessary but I didn’t want to chance it.

      1. I still do all of those things. Except the AC which I am not comfortable with. Lightning hit the pool filter and blew it out two summers ago and AFAIC that is the same as the AC system

  16. Rainshine…
    There is truth to the running water risk. My grandmother got zapped in that situation. Thankfully she was ok… But it was not pleasant.

    2. And if anyone would like to reassure me turning ac off is not necessary in newer homes because the whole home is grounded, I’d love to hear it. I’m more comfortable hearing it from a weather person as well as a AC person

      1. Turning it off is not necessary, unless it makes too much noise and you want to hear the storm better. 😉

  17. re: Lightning
    Honestly, I don’t turn off anything. I often sit right
    at my computer watching what is going on.
    Can something happen? Sure. My TV got smoked one time.

    But seriously, the likelyhood of something happening is small.

    About the only thing we do is NOT take shower/bath during
    a thunderstorm. 🙂

    So maybe I take too many chances? Oh well.

  18. Ok. One more question, please. I tend to listen to a 2-meter ham radio rig during a storm. I listen to 162.550 in Worcester, MA. Please answer this because I like to know what’s going on. It’s a hand-held radio for the amateur radio service.

      1. A hand held rig would not increase your danger.

        A base rig would, although the amount would depend on the efficiency of the grounding.

  19. Years ago light in hit the head if a friends irrigation system. The power traveled into the house and blew every device she had plugged in. It took a fair amount of time to prove the lightning hit on her property. If it had not, insurance would not have covered anything.

  20. Turning off any type of device means nothing in a lightning storm. If it is still connected to a plug then it can still transmit a charge. If you want to absolutely protect your equipment, you would have to physically disconnect all the connections to the equipment: power, cable, ethernet, phone, etc. A lightning strike could transmit electricity through any of those mechanisms in a storm. Simply pulling the electric plug on a tv doesn’t mean anything if it is still connected by a cable to the house.

    All houses have to be grounded in some manner in order for the house electrical system to work. “Grounding” is different from “lightning protection”. Lightning protection has to be much more robust than standard grounding.

    Long story short, don’t take a shower or bath during a T-storm, don’t talk on a wired phone. If you are leaving any appliance or equipment plugged in, you are taking the chance of damage occurring. But if you think about it, if lightning strikes your home, the equipment is going to be the least of your problems!

    1. Excellent comment. Thank you.

      FWIW I have alway disconnected any connections, including cable wires. When working I’d also do an extra backup to carbonite pre storm. There was a time I never left appliances connected. I’m lazy enough I no longer unplug toasters etc.

      I am Interested in your comment re lightning protection vs grounding. It makes absolute sense to me.

      Sooooo my question that seems logical to me is a condenser or an hvac system more likely to attract lightning if running?

      2. Its not a question of attracting lightning, its a matter of whether the device is connected to a pathway for unencumbered electricity to travel to it. If a device is not connected to anything, well, the electrical surge can’t zap it. If the device is connected to something, then the surge can follow that path and zap it. Whether the device is using electricity or not doesn’t matter. Hope that helps.

  21. I was brought up by parents with polar opposite views on lightning. My Dad loved the storms and we would stand out on the small open-sided front porch (“the stoop”) until we were soaked. Meanwhile, my Mom would be taking metal clips out of her hair and wearing her sneakers.

    Then my Mom’s friend’s house was struck by lightning and the fears got worse for my Mom. Fortunately, no one was injured, but there was significant damage to the house. The punchline is that this unlucky friend was named Millie Sparks!

    1. Oh my. I want to laugh but it isn’t funny.

      My mom was terrified of lightning. No matter the time of night, she would wake my brother and me and we’d sit on the stairs which were in the middle of the house. To her credit, she so,e how did it in a way that never scared chris or me. And we both ended up being fascinated by storms. I credit her with my very first love of weather.

  22. TK – If turning off A/C is not necessary then how do you explain my aunt’s blowout? This was 50+ years ago so I imagine appliances have improved considerably in terms of safety.

    1. It was due to the power surge, not the unit being “on”, but “connected”.

  23. Hey Rainshine. What you initially said was a silly question has now turned into a very educational topic. Thank you. A thank you to everyone for input

  25. I think the few things to watch tomorrow are:

    1) dew points. Identify areas that are 73F-75F+

    2) watch the water vapor loop to get a feel for how strong the 500 mb disturbance is and where exactly it tracks.

    3) keep an eye to the sfc winds

    4) nowcast the radar for the individual supercells that develop ahead of a main squall line.

  26. I was thinking yesterday there would be an upgrade to an enhanced risk for tomorrow. I expect there to be some sort of watch for thunderstorms tomorrow.

    1. I’m a bit surprised at the temps.

      Mt Washington summit is 55F, but it’s only in the 60s in the 4,000 ft level on the auto road and I feel like when we see 90F or higher, it’s in the 70s at that altitude. So, maybe I shouldn’t be surprised.

  29. Senator Mitch McConnell had a very strange moment at the podium today – perhaps a TIA or syncope – and I hope he’s okay.

  30. I know this may be difficult but wondered if you could provide some details on the storms tomorrow. Things like timing, rain, wind etc would be great. My wife will be on jury duty in Lowell and I wondered if she might get stuck on the way home. Thanks.

    2. Target window for your general area: 4PM-7PM.
      I think whatever does happen is going to be quick – up to 1 hour tops in any given location, maybe much quicker.

      Wildcards…
      -Amount of AM debris clouds to potentially limit heating somewhat.
      -Whether we develop a solid squall line, or a couple line segments.
      -Boundary positions and their ability to initiate back-up cells.

      I think if there’s an issue driving home, it won’t be long-lasting. Of course that depends on whether or not she’s there for the whole day or they are all let go by lunch time.

  32. WOW!

    Some of the MOST ROBUST severe parameters I have
    ever seen the NAM spit out.

    Here are a bunch of them from the 18Z NAM:

    Significant Tornado Parameter

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=stp&rh=2023072618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    0-1KM Energy Helicity Index

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ehi01&rh=2023072618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Super Cell Composite

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=scp&rh=2023072618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Storm Relative Helicity 0-1KM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=srh01&rh=2023072618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    CAPE

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sbcape&rh=2023072618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Lifted Index

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sbli&rh=2023072618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Could be a pretty wild day tomorrow.

    Now let’s see what other guidance shows as we can’t jut go with one model. 🙂

      1. 18Z HRRR

        CAPE

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sbcape&rh=2023072618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        Significant tornado parameter

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=stp&rh=2023072618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        Lifted Index

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sbli&rh=2023072618&fh=24&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        Very robust, except for the tornado aspect.

        All-in-all, looks like severe weather is likely with at least
        a small chance of a tornado or 2. How much of a chance
        is yet to be determined, but it looks like it is non-zero.
        Just how close to 0 is the question.

        ALL eyes to the SPC tomorrow morning!!!!

    2. VGP = Vorticity Generation Parameter. The VGP is meant to estimate the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft. Values greater than 0.2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms.

      1. This is definitely a concern if we can get some updrafts that are not part of a solid line.

        1. We’ll be watching closely tomorrow, for sure!!!

          Hopefully, we’ll have none of that!!!

          Time will tell.

  33. Doesn’t any station want to hit 90 today? 😉

    I’m looking real hard and I haven’t seen any across SNE yet unless something sneaked in when I wasn’t looking a couple hours ago. Even the typical hotspot known as Norwood is 88°.

    Am I surprised by this? Not a single bit. Forecast range for high temps was 84-91 for the majority of the region.

    Couple people I encountered during the course of the day were remarking that it hasn’t been this hot in a long time and that it is way into the 90s. That is, until I showed them the list of observations. “Don’t let the media tell you how you feel” was my advice. 🙂

    One of them insisted that the heat index was over 100°. Nope. So I just said to them we will agree to see that differently. You can see it in fantasyland and I will see it in reality. 🙂

    It wasn’t our local forecasters that gave the false impressions. It was the headline writers as usual…

    And with that, I am off to Hampton Beach for the evening!

    1. Not surprised in the slightest. HEAT WAVE HYPE!!!
      Hey still may happen with Saturday, but I am guessing NO.
      May not even hit 90 tomorrow. It all depends.

      So with all of this heat hype, we may end up with only 1 90+ day!!!
      Ha ha ha. But could still end up with 3. I doubt it. We shall see.

      I laugh my head off it NOT a single day exceeds 90!!!!!!

      1. There may be places that stay under 90 both tomorrow & Friday. I do think (right now) that Friday is going to be the hottest day, but not well forecast by the guidance may be a downslope dry-out (dew points that fall from near 70 to near 60). Certainly not polar dry, but noticeable with a breeze. If the wind dies off early enough, the dry out may be limited but that would open the door for a sea breeze potential right on the shoreline.

        Saturday is going to be all about cloudiness (both debris from Friday night upstream convection and cloudiness with the advancing front / new development). I’m still favoring a faster timing but if enough sun, there is a 90 potential for at least eastern areas.

        There has been quite a bit of heat wave hype (more in headlines and national media than local). Upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices in the middle to upper 90s is hot, don’t get me wrong, and those sensitive to it SHOULD be careful! But making it sound like a deadly heat dome is invading us (one national news broadcast did last night and WBZ this morning), no, that’s not what this is.

  35. Just dropped my granddaughter at her lesson (postponed from last night). I was pleasantly surprised at how comfortable the moderate breeze felt. It was 85 with 64 DP. Here (maybe 6 miles away) it is 83 with 66 dp and very little breeze and not as comfortable.

  37. Nice picture, TK!

    I also 100% agree with you on the media overhyping the heat wave.

    While I’m not a fan of heat, I also know when it’s REALLY hot outside and dangerous to many humans’ and even animals’ health and when it’s more run-of-the-mill heat and humidity. I think this week’s weather falls in the latter and not the former category.

  39. Maybe the early August heat wave of last year is what some think is/was coming.

    But, as mentioned, it’s not really close.

    That was close to brutal. Didn’t Boston hit 95F or higher six days in a row with some dps near 70F ?? And I think a couple days were 98F ?? I know it ended with a strong thunderstorm in marshfield.

    1. I just know that all the talk around the places I’ve been is about the extreme heat that we don’t have right now and that we’re not even really going to get…

      We get a couple, maybe three hot days, two of them with high humidity, one of them with a hint of a break.

      I would be more concerned with the severe weather threat both tomorrow and part of Saturday.

    1. If I recall correctly, both the gfs and euro 12z have a tiny ripple along the front just north of the Mass border at 18z, right at max heating.

      Low 90s and 70F+ dps at and south of the Mass border.

      If that verifies, that could be volatile.

  41. Tomorrow and Saturday have the potential to be the most active thunderstorm days of the warm weather season.

  42. Tom and TK, indeed last year we had worse heat. There was a period last summer during which I felt so dazed and it lasted a long time.

    1. They have always fascinated me. It might have something to,do with the fact my maiden name means wolf like 🙂

      They have leaned how to survive despite man. Dna has shown that we have coywolves in this area.

  44. Thanks TK.

    The Red Sox just swept a 2 game series against Atlanta, which happens to have the best record in baseball right now. Also coming back from being down 3-0 tonight and winning 5-3.

    The Red Sox were 15 games out of first place not so long ago and are now 7 games out and only 1.5 games behind in the wild card race. Still two months to go and a lot can happen but they have been in quite a stretch right now going 14-5 in July.

    1. If you go back on this blog. Years back. And it really isn’t worth taking the time. I always believed that when the Sox started off strong, they petered.

      Win, lose or draw, they always seemed to come back from a rough start. But then we shall see and I may have just jinxed them

Comments are closed.