Wednesday December 10 2025 Forecast (7:41AM)

83 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 10-14)

A mild interlude comes today ahead of a cold front that trails low pressure passing to our north. This front will bring a round of rain showers (maybe some mix higher elevations well north and west of Boston) later today before bringing back a cold air mass overnight that will then be with us into the upcoming weekend. Thursday, upper low pressure and (limited) Great Lakes moisture combine for a snow shower chance, then dry weather is expected with weak high pressure in control Friday through Saturday. Sunday’s weather is to be determined by the track of a clipper low and how much moisture it has to work with, but there is the chance of snow or snow showers from this system with cold air in place in our area. Fine-tuning on the Sunday forecast ahead…

TODAY: Some partial sun morning favoring eastern areas otherwise becoming mostly cloudy. Late-day rain showers from west to east, but may be mixed with snow in higher elevations from north central MA through southwestern NH. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Rain showers possible in eastern areas in the evening. Icy areas on untreated surfaces overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of snow showers. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a snow flurry. Lows 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, gradually diminishing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 11-18 except 18-25 coastal and urban areas. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 17-24. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow or snow showers. Highs 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 15-19)

A little more up and down temps possible in this period with low pressure track somewhat variable, potentially one or two systems passing over or north of here, but this is also somewhat uncertain. A lot to work out for detail during this stretch of time.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 20-24)

Similar ideas going into this period as well but leaning colder over warmer with a couple precipitation opportunities. With it a very low confidence forecast period I won’t venture into anymore detailed explanation than that at this point.

83 thoughts on “Wednesday December 10 2025 Forecast (7:41AM)”

  1. Good morni g and thank you TK.

    31 here

    Ocean: 47

    RE: SUnday
    Euro has lost the snow as well as the Icon and unmet.

    My feeling is that it’s gone. We shall see if anything changes.

    Wordle; 6
    Had valid word guesses 2 through 5 before finally seeing it for guess 6

    Reply

  4. Thank you TK!

    Wordle: It was a “Phew” kind of day for me and I shall be riding in the caboose with a 6. Just like JPD, had valid words in guesses 2 through 5 until I finally woke up.

    Reply

  7. Both Euro and GFS have ZILCH for snow in Boston Through Dec 26th. That doesn’t necessarily mean anything, but it is not very encouraging just the same.

    Reply

  8. Thank you, TK. Up to 33 from a balmy overnight low of 29

    Even the upcoming cold doesn’t look quite as cold as what we just had.

    Reply

  9. My RANT of the other day must have been heard!! 🙂 🙂

    For a few nights now, no mention of “FEELS LIKE” temperature
    from Pete Bouchard! I don’t think he was ever an offender anyway. Others on that station (10) and 4 and 5 as well DWELLED on the “FEELS LIKE” temperature.

    I sure don’t mind them saying something like with tomorrow’s cold and wind, it will feel like the Teens. That is ALL that is needed. None of these whole New England maps with feels like temperatures plastered all over it!!! 🙂 🙂 🙂

    YAY Pete!!!!! Pete ranks #1 in my book, followed by Eric with a nod to Matt Noyes, but he is not on air except their website.

    Reply

  13. Interesting discussion from the local NWS office regarding
    The weekend system.

    This Weekend…

    A ridge of high pressure to our south will slowly move east on
    Saturday. At the same time…another piece of strong shortwave
    energy will be dropping southeastward into the Great Lakes. The 00z
    models indicate the trough axis further east than guidance over the
    past 12-24 hours. This tends to suppress the low pressure further
    south in much of the guidance compared to yesterday/s runs. So the
    overall snow threat in the Sat night to Sun has decreased…but this
    is not set in stone. There are still individual ensemble members
    especially from the CMC guidance that track the low pressure system
    further north. The models seem to be struggling with
    amplitude/timing of northern stream energy which will have a
    significant impact on the track of this wave of low pressure. So
    while odds for accumulating snow have decreased some Sat night-
    Sun…still too early to rule out a trend back north. Will need
    another 36-48 hours to have more confidence in the eventual outcome.

    So far, I don’t see it trending back North.

    Reply

    1. Gee, I am Not surprised by that. Of course because the EPS has it, doesn’t make it so. Time will tell.

      Although the daily departure has been fairly large (-7 +),
      I still do NOT see anything remarkable to me this month
      at all. I know, one could say that is remarkable in itself, but I just don’t see it that way.

      And, what will it be for the whole month? Not that large., I’d bet anything on that. We shall see.

      We’re only at Dec. 10, so there is still a long way to go, but so far this month has not impressed me in the slightest. 🙂 🙂

      Reply

      1. Old salty I really honestly believe that Boston / south will have no significant/ meaningful snow this month .

        Reply

        1. You may be right, BUT it is too early to say that just yet.
          Wouldn’t surprise me, but I am holding out for some snow and hopefully be around for Christmas. 🙂

          Reply

      1. not sure that would be a good thing for Patriots. Maye hasn’t played his best in bad weather and for some reason the Patriots been practicing inside instead of outside.

        Reply

  20. Be on standby for some accumulating snow Sunday, the potential for which has increased, especially Boston area south.

    Reply

      1. Time always tells in “forecasting the future”, which loses all credibility without the application of science. 🙂

        Reply

  22. Did I see a post from Coastal on the previous blog or was I still asleep. He was responding to TOM about dart tournaments.

    Reply

  23. 12Z Euro has some snow for Sunday

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025121012&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    24 hour 10:1 snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025121012&fh=114&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Surface temp look to be in the upper 20s and 925 mb temp
    about 17-18 degress with 850 MB temps about 12 degrees.
    Hmmm, pretty cold column. I am betting ratio would be somewhere between 12 and 15 to 1. Of course, just a guess.

    so for Boston, it looks like about 0.15 inch. or 1.5 inches at 10:1, or 1.8 inches at 12:1 or 2.25 inches at 15:1

    If it were ever 20:1 then it would be 3 inches.

    So, what will it be???

    Reply

    1. Euro always overamplifies in the long range. Though I wouldn’t be surprised to see a storm cut around that 12/20 timeframe. Models have been hinting at the pattern relaxing around that time before the next cold reload.

      Reply

    2. Believe it or not, that system would help re-establish cold air that would possibly be enough to fight off a surge of warmth coming later. I’ll talk more about that.

      Reply

  25. While I’d like to see it a bit stronger, the MJO in phase 8 is exactly where you want it if you’re a fan of additional cold & potential snow chances during the next 2 weeks.

    The MJO was very much a factor in the busted SE ridge forecast by a lot of guidance earlier this month, and this may be the case yet again.

    Reply

  27. For those interested, I’ve posted more articles this month on Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/

    The news at Forbes isn’t good. Dozens of (senior) contributors were fired a few days ago. I wasn’t among them. But firings throughout journalism world are rampant. Entire publications, including one I write for, are folding. Perhaps more ominously for me, consulting work is in precipitous decline. Maybe AI related? I don’t know. I am very frugal. Live in a 400 square foot flat, have no car, don’t go on vacation, and have saved money for rainy days. But figuratively speaking it’s going to pour in 2026.

    Reply

  29. North Adams & Pittsfield MA report snow as of 4:00 p.m., and there is a bit of mixing in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH as was forecast. Everywhere else we see rain in a rather stratiform band (so not really “showers” by definition, just a rain band with a shallow-sloped cold front. However, despite it’s lazy looking profile, it will lead a pretty chilly air mass back in overnight.

    Reply

  33. Still raining here and 0.36” in the rain gauge.

    Just spoke to my mother and she picked up another 6” of snow today in Amsterdam NY. This following 6” from last weeks storm and 4” from the lake effect event the day after thanksgiving when I was up there. Coupled with the recent cold, it has been quite the start to the winter season up there.

    Reply

    1. The next day isn’t in the gfs range. Many thanks for the good laughs. On the other hand the NAM looks ripe for sunday.

      Reply

  36. It will be the firs time in years in which my two brothers, my Dad and I will be on the slope at the same time on the 22nd, Im not a praying man but Im praying for the so called warm up doesn’t lead to a decimation of the snow cover or worst rain.

    Reply

    1. The ski areas have really built up an impressive base and trail count for this early in the season and are expanding terrain nearly daily. I think they will sustain a brief warmup and run of the mill cutter just fine. As long as we dont get a complete inferno Grinch storm with 60F dewpoints to Quebec like we did 2020.

      Reply

  37. Upon looking at the current pattern and the telecommunications, I fear SNE may experience record level low snowfall projections for the entire winter season. I know TK will likely slash my concerns since it’s only Autumn, however, it’ll need to be a back loaded winter in Boston to approach normal levels of a snow. Yet, it’s my opinion that the back end of winter will be underwhelming in 2026 leading to well below snowfall projections despite my guess of normal to above normal snowfall.

    Reply

    1. Telecommunications? 🙂

      I think way too early to make that assessment based on anything but a gut feeling. We will have a few snow chances second half of this month and then all of January, February and March to go.

      What teleconnection forecasts in particular were you looking at? MJO continues to look favorable in Phase 7/8 through the end of the month, and the AO looks to dip negative again towards the holidays. Not to mention, none of these models can accurately predict many of these teleconnections more than 2-4 weeks in advance so what happens down the road in Jan-March at this point is anyone’s guess.

      Reply

      1. Teleconnections, Mark. My apologies for the autocorrect. I understand you have a snow bias. You always have. I love snow as much as you do and while I can’t predict the future, I do understand patterns. There have been snow “chances” that you’ve pointed out for weeks. None of them have materialized. For the remainder of December, our chances of meaningful snow will be limited. I see nothing to suggest otherwise other than wishful thinking. Of course things can change. I’m not naive to that fact and I hope I’m wrong. Yet, my thinking has changed. Boston and the surrounding area will see below normal snowfall since I relied on a front loaded winter.

        Reply

        1. Depends where you live. The storm last week produced a moderate snow event for much of interior SNE and could have produced for areas further SE as well had the storm tracked 20-30 miles in the other direction. Plowable snow missed my house by a mere 15 miles.

          My opinions are not based on my love for snow (I actually went quite low with my snow guess last year) but based on the overarching theme that we have a weak La Nina and easterly QBO forecasted to persist through the winter. In easterly QBO winters there is more tendency for the PV to be disrupted and the AO to go negative. The weak La Nina has also been correlated to some of our snowier winters. TK, Eric F, JR and others have also mentioned this in their winter forecasts.

          Not out of the question you end up right about December but the bulk of our winter snows in SNE historically occur in January, February and March. You didn’t answer my question what specific teleconnections you are seeing in the long range that point to a snowless January through March 🙂

          Reply

    1. NNE will continue to do well in the short term. SNE will continue to see cold and below normal snows for the next couple weeks due to starvation of moisture.
      And then, there are signs of a building SE ridge and subsequent warming later Dec and well into Jan. Not conducive for meaningful snow in SNE. By then, our window of opportunity will be narrowing. Hope I’m wrong but patterns cannot be denied.

      Reply

      1. I think TK will have a field day in the AM responding to your comment (in early December) about our window of opportunity for meaningful snow in SNE narrowing if we don’t get anything by January. 🙂 Mind you, the models cant get anything right beyond 5 days, let alone 2 weeks out and certainly 1-3 months out.

        FWIW, there is not much warmth at all in New England in the Jan-Mar timeframe on either the CFS or CANSIPS long range models.

        Reply

  39. The teleconnections are not bad, really the only bad thing of this season is that darn -PDO that been in place since 2020ish which been consistently strong. Once the MJO gets out of the weak state and goes into phase 7 we will be back into winter. The question is when does that happen.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *