DAYS 1-5 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

An unsettled Saturday to close out May is what we have for our area today. This is due to low pressure cutting across the region – center passing over the western reaches of the WHW forecast area. The most widespread rainfall has already occurred, with the last couple bands of showers and downpours moving through from south to north as I write this, and a dry slot already starting to move in from the south. The latter will overspread most of the region with an episode of at least partial clearing – maybe even full sunshine for some areas for a couple hours. As the low center pulls further north, we switch from a southerly air flow to a westerly air flow. Wrap-around moisture will return a lot of clouds to the sky this afternoon along with at least isolated to scattered showers. Sometimes convergence of air on the back sides of these systems as they finish peaking in intensity can consolidate the showers into a more widespread rainfall area, and this is a possibility, especially for areas north of I-90, at some point late-day / evening. Playing the forecast wording as just scattered showers, but watch for this at the end of the day. Drier air will spread in overnight and Sunday as the low pulls further away. With some chill air aloft thanks to upper level low pressure, we’ll still see diurnal clouds pop up on Sunday and some already existing stratocumulus clouds associated with the upper low, so it won’t be a perfectly sunny first day of June, but it will be nicer than today, though you’ll have to put up with a gusty breeze if you plan to be outside. Another wrap-around batch of clouds may greet you first thing Monday, and I still think some diurnal cloud popping up takes place that day too, but it looks like quite a nice day just the same. On yesterday’s update, I was concerned about a low pressure area to our south being too close to allow a warm-up to last more than one day before being interrupted, but the indications are stronger that this low will be further south and weaker, allowing high pressure to sink to a position just south of New England Tuesday and Wednesday. Result: Dry weather and a strong warm-up.

TODAY: Clouds, fog, showers, downpours around into mid morning but a clearing trend south to north mid morning to midday before lots of clouds return from the west with isolated to scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 66-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely early, then variably cloudy. Lows 49-56. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 62-69. Wind W 10-20 MPH, few higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 5-9)

A frontal boundary from the north drifts into the region early in this period bringing the chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Current thinking is low pressure moving into the Great Lakes and eventually north of our area pulls the boundary back to the north with warm weather and less of a shower and thunderstorm chance June 6, then pulls the front back through with a few showers early June 7, followed by fair weather later in the period. Temperatures cool down briefly then warm up again late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 10-14)

There has been a lot of non-clarity about how the pattern shapes up heading toward mid June. The latest trend is for weak blocking but configured with high pressure over our area and low pressure well to the south. This set-up would be fair and seasonable, coolest coast most days. Still not the highest confidence on this outlook, so check updates.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

Unsettled weather prevails for the final 2 days of May as a kind of summary to the month we just went through. Drought Monitor update yesterday did indeed show the drought is gone with the exception of a very small area on Cape Cod and Nantucket. In the short term, there’s additional drought reduction / elimination potential for those final areas as well. Today, a frontal boundary sitting in the region triggers a few early-day showers, and a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring the I-95 belt region. Coverage should be fairly low overall, but any area that does see one or two pass through can experience brief downpours. Tonight, a wave of low pressure rides up the boundary and delivers widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms from late evening through overnight generally from south to north. This main area will depart by mid morning with a dry slot delivering some sun, but the trailing trough can trigger additional showers and thunderstorms any time from midday on, and an additional disturbance will bring another batch of showers and storms in the evening. This reflects faster timing than what I indicated on yesterday’s update, as the disturbance will take on more of a trough form, connected to the low pressure area that just went by, instead of developing into its own low center. This is good news for Sunday, with a drier westerly air flow dominate all day. The fact that we still have a trough overhead though means that chilly air associated with it aloft will allow the development of a fair amount of cumulus clouds on Sunday, so it’ll be a “limited sun” situation. I don’t think any of these clouds will grow capable of producing showers, so it should be a rain-free day and a bit cooler than Saturday. Monday and Tuesday feature a westerly air flow, dry weather, and a warming trend.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning including an early-day shower north of Boston. Partly sunny afternoon but isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring the I-95 belt. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 73-80 elsewhere. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Late evening and overnight widespread showers and possible thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers / thunderstorms end south to north by mid morning. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible any time midday on. Highs 66-73. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly mid evening to 3:00AM. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77, may be cooler at the coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH but potential coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 4-8)

Watching a weak but broad area of low pressure to the south of New England which may thwart the midweek warm-up at least for a day June 4 with more clouds and a broad scale onshore air flow. Warmer weather returns after that, but watch a cold front from the north late next week (later June 6 current estimating timing) for a shower/thunderstorm threat. Early optimism for rain-free but slightly cooler weather June 7-8 weekend with influence from Canadian high pressure.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 9-13)

Still some hints of weak blocking and a round or two of unsettled weather, but details remain very fuzzy out this far.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

An unsettled weather pattern is with us for the final few days of May, and the first several hours of June, in keeping with our weather pattern of late. Reiterating good news, pollen counts have been kept lower by frequent rain (good for allergy sufferers) and we have obliterated whatever was left of drought / abnormal dryness across the region. For many, that’s not enough of a consolation prize, but for those folks, I also have some better news – if you have patience. There isn’t much change to the players and their parts in the unsettled weather of the next few days. A warm front moving into the region today is thwarted a bit by a weak wave of low pressure forming on it and passing just southeast of our area. While many areas saw showers in the pre-dawn hours, additional showers can occur today, favoring RI and southeastern MA through early afternoon, after which the rain threat is a done deal for a while. But primary low pressure passing to our north still has to drag another frontal boundary into the region and it will do that tonight into Friday, and not hurriedly either. This boundary will be the focus point for a few showers and possible thunderstorms during the day Friday – right now leaning toward the I-90 / I-95 belts being more likely, with most of the activity occurring during a few hour window in the afternoon. There are many outdoor graduation ceremonies scheduled for Friday evening and I believe most of them won’t encounter any weather-related issues. I’d love to be able to say that front is going to be pulled cleanly through and we clear out for the weekend, but it’s not the case. Two low pressure areas look like they need to move through our area. The first will deliver a bout of rain later Friday night into Saturday morning. The track of the low center is somewhat crucial to how the balance of Saturday turns out. A further east track keeps us on the cooler, cloudier, damp side. A track further west could give us a few hours of drier, warmer weather before a round of showers and thunderstorms followed it. Leaning ever-so-slightly toward the western track scenario but please check updates on this. One final low pressure wave will ripple up the boundary the early hours of Sunday, but I think this one will move swiftly enough so that most of the shower activity with it will occur between late Saturday night and Sunday’s sunrise time. Again check updates on this too. If this prognostication is correct, most of Sunday would turn out decent. Finally, a drier westerly air flow brings nice weather Monday.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy – breaks of sun favor northwest of Boston early – showers / drizzle most likely south of Boston through early afternoon. Highs 62-69. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH early, becoming variable to S later.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm favoring the I-90 and I-95 belts midday to mid afternoon. Highs 73-80, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain late evening / overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain early, then variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 61-68. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds re-thicken with another round of widespread showers overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds and showers very early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 3-7)

Fair weather and a warm-up into the middle of next week. Watch for a shower threat with a frontal boundary from the north late week which may introduce a cooler maritime air mass, but this outlook is quite uncertain at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 8-12)

Hints of weak blocking and a round or two of unsettled weather, but details impossible this far in advance. No major temperature departures anticipated.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

Dry air aloft thinned out a veil of high clouds overnight that had spread into the area late yesterday, but while offshore high pressure keeps us dry today, upper level moisture will increase again and a sunny start will lead to a cloudy finish to the day. Tonight into Thursday, a warm front moves into and partially across the region, slowed by a developing wave of low pressure on it. That results in a period of showery weather, and a slow diminishing of them on Thursday as the low saunters away and low level moisture hangs on. Finally a stronger low, albeit further away, moving through the Great Lakes will put us into a warmer southwesterly flow for Friday – a day that looks largely rain-free except for the slight chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm as a moisture-starved cold front approaches. This front won’t stay moisture-starved for too long though. As it settles through the region Friday night and hangs around for a little while, a wave of low pressure forms and moves up along it Friday night into Saturday with more widespread rainfall. This system should be moving along enough that we get some improvement for a while for part of Saturday, but another disturbance can cause another round of showers later on, probably at night (timing / coverage to be fine-tuned). Finally, we clear out behind all of that on Sunday to start June with a nicer day.

TODAY: Sunny start / mainly cloudy finish. Highs 65-72 coast, 73-80 inland. Wind SW to SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers arrive and continue. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Showers diminish, slowly. Drizzle and patchy fog. Highs 62-69. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH early, becoming variable to S later.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 73-80, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Rain late evening / overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 54-61. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain early, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs 61-68. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers then overnight clearing. Lows 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 2-6)

A stretch of fair weather next week. Coolest early in the week, then a warm-up, but end-of-week may see a back-door cold front (maybe accompanied by a few showers) and a cool-down with the arrival of a maritime air mass.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 7-11)

Maritime air may dominate the June 7-8 weekend but optimistic that it’s controlled by high pressure with fair weather. A transition out of that and a hint at some weak blocking may mean some unsettled weather thereafter, but it’s far in the future and no clear, strong signals to what happens yet.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 27-31)

High pressure in control of the weather makes today an easy pick of the week. It warms a little over yesterday, especially inland, but the coast will feel a cooling sea breeze. You’ll see some high clouds fanning up from the southwest during the day, but they won’t do much to interfere with the sun. Those clouds will start to increase during tomorrow though as high pressure slips offshore and low pressure heads for the Great Lakes with its warm front approaching our area. This front can bring some rain later Wednesday night then sets us up for a more humid and showery Thursday behind it and ahead of a cold front, the latter of which will pass by as low pressure moves eastward across southeastern Canada late Thursday to early Friday. You’d think that the passage of low pressure to our north and a cold front moving through would clear things out and set the stage for a couple of fair weather days. That often happens, but not this time, again. We’ll have upper level low pressure lingering and moving slowly through the region during the last couple days of the month – Friday and Saturday. The front that goes by won’t get that far east of here, and while an additional trough may kick off a few showers Friday, I’m watching for a potential wave of low pressure coming up that frontal boundary go bring some additional rain. If the timing is just so, most of that rain will come through Friday night and taper off Saturday, but it would likely still be an unsettled start to the weekend (and finish to May) with additional showers. There are several days to fine-tune this part of the forecast.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Some high clouds. Lows 49-56. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 64-71, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 66-73, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 63-70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 1-5)

June 1 looks drier, maybe a pop-up shower with the last of upper level low pressure lingering before moving away, with temperature on the cooler side of average. Warmer weather looms in the early days of June behind this as high pressure sets up to our south and a more westerly flow results. Maybe the next disturbance later in the period brings a shower / t-storm chance.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 6-10)

Still not high confidence in this forecast period, but a little weak blocking may try to return with some additional unsettled weather, but this version of it would be less impactful than the events we saw during May.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 26-30)

Upper level low pressure finally pushes off to the east today and high pressure moves our way from the west. There’s enough chilly air above us to still trigger the development of diurnal cumulus, but they won’t be as extensive and spread (stratocumulus) like yesterday, allowing a sun/cloud mix, and they won’t grow enough to produce showers here (that can take place but will be in the mountains to the west and north). After a cool start, it will be a pleasant day with generally light wind including a coastal sea breeze, where it will be a little cooler than inland as far as high temps go. Conditions are favorable for outdoor Memorial Day observances. High pressure builds and is in control for a stellar Tuesday – the pick of the week. After that things, cycle back to the weather being controlled by low pressure. Wednesday, a trough approaches and low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. Its warm front will approach our region, increasing the clouds. A period of rain with the passage of that warm front occurs Wednesday night. Thursday, we get into the warm sector of the low with a southerly air flow, higher humidity, and showers around, until a cold front passes by at night or early Friday. But Friday can see additional showers in the area as the Great Lakes low is stacking under its upper low which has to drift eastward across the region, so the air will remain unstable that day.

TODAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Sunny start except patchy clouds in western hills. Sun/cloud mix late morning on. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Clouds dissipate. Lows 46-53. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 49-56. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 64-71, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 66-73, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

A low pressure trough aloft and a series of surface troughs bring a chance of showers (possibly thunderstorms) during the last day of May. Upper level low pressure gradually weakens and the flow becomes a little more zonal early days of June, but additional disturbances about June 2 and 4 can bring shower and thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 5-9)

Still a mixed bag in our guidance but the general outlook is similar to yesterday. Not high confidence but leaning toward a couple periods of unsettled weather but no major systems or significant temperature departures from the long term average.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 25-29)

Popcorn showers dominated the Saturday third of Memorial Day Weekend. Now it’s time for the Sunday middle third, and while today won’t be a top 10 day, it’ll be nicer than yesterday, in that the shower threat is much lower. While some areas have abundant sun to start the day, others are under cloud patches, and the general trend will be for a lot of diurnal clouds to pop up in any sunnier areas, due to colder air lingering aloft with upper level low pressure centered to our northeast, but us still in the cold pool. A few of these clouds can grow to produce passing showers, but the coverage will be far less than yesterday. Monday (Memorial Day) will be even better weather-wise, as the upper low loses influence and high pressure builds in from the west. While we still will have some clouds popping up, they will be “fair-weather” clouds as I don’t expect them to produce any showers. Coastal areas will end up cooler Monday due to a light sea breeze there. High pressure will remain dominant Tuesday with fair, pleasant weather. At midweek, we see another transition to somewhat unsettled weather, but this time it doesn’t look anything like what we just went through. A weaker area of low pressure will approach from the southwest Wednesday with increasing clouds and a southeasterly air flow keeping the coast coolest. Thursday we find ourselves in a southerly air flow with more humidity, variable cloud cover, and a chance of showers, between high pressure over the Atlantic and low pressure to our west.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower possible. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds early / decreasing clouds after. Lows 47-54. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind N up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes developing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 49-56. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 66-73, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

A low pressure trough aloft and a series of surface troughs bring a chance of showers (possibly thunderstorms) during the last couple days of May. Upper level low pressure hangs around then slowly moves away the first few days of June with a drying trend but temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 4-8)

Guidance waffles between weak blocking and progressive pattern prognostications, so there is little change in the low confidence outlook which leans slightly cool but not excessively wet.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 24-28)

The weather this Memorial Day Weekend will most certainly trend nicer compared to recent days, especially the soaking rainstorm with moderate to strong coastal winds we just experienced. That storm system weakened as it wandered away from us yesterday, “away” being a loosely-used term here, because we are still feeling its effects and will continue to do so for all 3 days of the weekend, but not to the degree we did during the last few days. Improvement comes as a drying trend takes place around the back side of the low and its upper level counterpart. But there is enough moisture in place today for a lot of clouds and a few rounds of showers in the region. In fact, I apologize for the delay to later-than-usual posting, as one such shower area moving into the area was taking place as a clearing slot in the sky allowed the sun to shine through, creating a somewhat-rare morning rainbow in the western sky at my location, which was in place for nearly 75 minutes and had me lining up some photographs at various city landmarks here in Woburn. This is an area of showers coming back in from the west around the back side of low pressure, which elongates in trough form westward. That trough will be moving through the region today, and while the majority of the hours are rain-free at any given location, additional pop up showers can occur from midday through mid afternoon in a trend from west to east, after which some additional sunny breaks may arrive for late day. Maybe a few more rainbows will be visible in some locations, but this time it would be to the east southeast as the sun prepares to set on the opposite side of the sky. Keep a look-out should you get tagged by a late-day shower followed by sun. I don’t think I’ve ever had a morning rainbow and a late-day rainbow on the same day, at least while I’ve been observing. Maybe today will be the day. Anyway, back to the actual weather forecast… Sunday’s weather improves, but we’ll still see clouds coming around the back side of the low and additional pop-up clouds that can release a shower, but the odds of seeing one of those are much lower than today. While we’ll have the pop-up clouds again Monday, I think these ones will fail to produce showers, and Memorial Day will turn out the nicest of the three day weekend. This will be favorable for the many outdoor observances and ceremonies scheduled for the day. High pressure then builds in for a nice day Tuesday. I’m watching low pressure to the southwest of us by Wednesday which may spread a blanket of clouds back into the region, aided by a possible onshore flow by that time. Not quite sure how that evolves yet, so “day 5” is a fairly uncertain forecast at this point and I’ll refine it going forward from here.

TODAY: Lots of clouds. Light showers mainly west and north of Boston this morning. Scattered showers redevelop west to east midday to mid afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing shower. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind NW up to 10 MPH but some coastal sea breezes developing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 49-56. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

Again this period is a lower then average forecast confidence time frame. Still leaning toward a southerly to variable flow in the May 29-31 time frame with a frontal system and disturbance bringing some shower chances, then a fair weather trend to start June. Temperatures not far from normal – no extremes.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 3-7)

A hint of a weaker block (high pressure to north / low pressure to south) leaves this longer range forecast period very uncertain at this point. Leaning toward the cooler side of average with enough high pressure for mostly dry weather, but with continued low confidence, so check updates.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)

An impressive late May storm system delivered a healthy rainfall to the region yesterday into early today including some potent thunderstorms for portions of southeastern MA. While wind gusts were strong at times, the rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches (even a few higher amounts) were the more notable aspect of the system, and while some minor flooding occurred, this rainfall should be what finishes off any moderate drought that still existed in our region, putting us in a much better place heading toward summer regarding that. But that’s something to monitor longer-term. In the shorter-term, the low pressure area that brought us these conditions will still have an impact on the region going into the long weekend. We’ll be under the influence of its circulation, even though it weakens and lifts into Maine and eventually Atlantic Canada. Because we are talking about a “vertically stacked” (mature surface low pressure aligned with its upper level counterpart), and no powerful jet stream moving it along, the entire process of ridding ourselves of it is slow. However, with time, it aids in improving the weather, helping to draw drier air into our region. At first though, this will be less apparent with some drizzle and a few showers around today, and a tongue of moisture even increasing the rainfall coverage for several hours this evening / tonight. Saturday we’ll keep a lot of cloud cover around, but the shower coverage will be less again. Although some of the scattered ones that do occur can be a little heavier than what’s around today, favoring midday to mid afternoon. Behind these we see an attempt at some clearing and may see some sun before the day’s over Saturday, but additional cloudiness still associated with the storm’s circulation will not allow for complete clearing, even Sunday, which will be a nicer day overall. Chilly air still lingering aloft means that I can’t rule out pop up isolated showers Sunday, but I would not alter any outdoor plans because of that forecast other than being aware of the slight chance. Memorial Day itself, Monday, will feature fair weather as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. I’ve been skeptical of this being the start of a fair weather stretch, but the trend on reliable guidance has been to build that high into New England and keep fair weather going on Tuesday next week, so I’ll lean into this trend for now.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Chance of passing showers. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid afternoon with isolated to scattered showers. Partly sunny late-day. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing shower. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

This is not a high confidence forecast at this time. Leaning toward high pressure dominating with fair weather May 28 and a little increase in moisture with a pop up shower chance from a more southerly flow May 29. Somewhat unsettled with a low pressure trough and frontal system traversing the region May 30-31, but does not like a big storm system. June would begin with fair weather if this scenario played out as prognosticated. That’s already more specific than I’d like to be for a 6 to 10 day forecast, so keep track of updates for some changes / adjustments to this outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)

A hint of a weaker block (high pressure to north / low pressure to south) leaves this longer range forecast period very uncertain at this point. Leaning toward the cooler side of average with enough high pressure for mostly dry weather, but with very low confidence.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 22-26)

A late May coastal storm will impact our region today into Friday, with some lingering effects into the start of the Memorial Day Weekend as well. Today’s weather will feature the maximum effects of the storm system, as a redeveloped low pressure center over the Mid Atlantic cuts across far southeastern New England tonight. Ahead of it rain takes over, along with increasing northeasterly winds, strongest along the coast, and to go along with it unseasonably chilly air making it feel more like late March or early April. The impacts of this system will be noticeably less in the western reaches of the WHW forecast area, and even more so outside of it as you get west of the Connecticut River – more like a benign rain event with a breeze. As the low center lifts northeastward, it will begin to weaken as it heads through the Gulf of Maine into Atlantic Canada. Our wind at that time will back to north, eventually northwest, and wrap-around moisture associated with the storm system will still result in bouts of showers Friday and Saturday, but it appears the bulk of the rainfall may occur Friday night, leaving more rain-free times for both of those days. Upper level low pressure will also be drifting across the region Saturday and exiting as we move through Sunday and Monday. While I cannot rule out a pop-up shower Sunday, I think the day will be generally a rain-free one, and Memorial Day itself should be absent of any rain chances, with favorable conditions for outdoor observances.

TODAY: Overcast. Rain overspreads the region during this morning then continues, possibly heavy at times. Areas of drizzle and fog increasing too. Highs 46-53. Wind NE increasing to 15-30 MPH, higher gusts, especially coast, with frequent gusts 35+ MPH and peak gusts 50+ MPH favoring Cape Cod, but not reaching those levels until evening.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain, gradually tapering off overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH, higher gusts especially along the coast.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Chance of passing showers. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing shower. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73, cooler along the coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 27-31)

Watching for potential unsettled weather from another low pressure trough heading through next week, but this part of the outlook remains highly uncertain. Temperatures below normal for the final stretch of May.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 1-5)

A weakening of blocking and a somewhat more progressive pattern evolves. The outlook here would be a little drier overall, with near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 21-25)

A quick breather before our next “weathermaker” aka “The May Nor’easter” comes along. Low pressure heads for the Great Lakes today as we have a marine air flow here. There is enough dry air about to break up some of the lower cloud cover so some areas see a few peeks of sunshine this morning. However, a more extensive high to mid level cloud deck will be advancing in from the west and southwest ahead of our developing storm system. The aforementioned low pressure area will redevelop in the Mid Atlantic and head our way, taking a track right across far southeastern New England (Cape Cod / Islands) late Thursday and early Friday. We catch it in its peak intensity cycle too, maximizing the rain, wind, and chilly air with it. This takes place during the day Thursday, into the evening, before diminishing. The low pressure center weakens as it wanders through the Gulf of Maine toward Atlantic Canada, and on its back side, while Friday is still unsettled, it will be less wet, less windy, but still cool. We then reach the Memorial Day Weekend at which time we’ll take one step back on Saturday as the remains of the original low pressure area come across the region as a trough with lots of clouds and a chance of showers, before improvement arrives Sunday in the wake of that system. Tomorrow’s update will expand upon the outlook for the entirety of the Memorial Day Weekend, including the holiday itself which will be “day 5”.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle this afternoon. Highs 52-59, coolest coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially along the coast, up to 30+ MPH overnight.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain likely and can be heavy at times. Drizzle/fog. Highs 47-54. Wind NE 15-30 MPH, higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, gradually tapering off overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially along the coast.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Chance of passing showers. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 43-50. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Additional showers likely. Highs 54-61. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 26-30)

Memorial Day (May 26) looks fair and milder at this point. Watching for potential unsettled weather from another low pressure trough heading through next week, but this part of the outlook is highly uncertain currently. Temperatures trend cooler again.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

Gradual shift from blocking to progressive pattern means briefer unsettled periods and more variable temperatures, but still averaging near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 20-24)

We’re still on the back-side of low pressure here with a cool breeze and lots of clouds, but today will be free of any rain threat. That low wanders away into the North Atlantic and high pressure holds to our north through midweek. A redeveloping omega block will send its eastern low pressure member our way to the south of the high pressure area mid to late week, resulting in another slow moving rain and wind event, along with a chill that’ll make it feel like much earlier in the spring than it is. We’ll start to see improvement, slowly, as we head through Friday and to the start of the weekend, but the pattern is one that doesn’t allow the storm system to exit quickly, so we’ll still feel its effects during this time in the form of below normal temperatures, clouds, and a shower chance despite a drier trend.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Highs 56-63. Wind N 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Highs 52-59, coolest coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Temperatures fall to 45-52 then steady. Wind NE 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain / drizzle. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Additional showers / drizzle, tapering off with time. Highs 52-59. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds / some sun. Chance of a shower. Highs 57-64. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 25-29)

Upper level low pressure weakens but hangs around during the May 25-26 Memorial Day Weekend time period with a daily chance of diurnal showers. However much of the time will be rain-free, albeit continued cooler than normal. A brief break May 27? Watching another low pressure area and rain threat potential for later in the period with continued below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

Wet weather threat early in the period then a drier trend with a gradual shift from a blocking to more progressive pattern. Temperatures near to below normal. Day-to-day details TBD.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)

Low pressure areas will be dominating our weather for the next 5 days. Today, we find ourselves on the back side of a large low pressure circulation (both surface and aloft) over southern Atlantic Canada and the adjacent North Atlantic waters. This cool pool will keep us cool and breezy with a sun/cloud mix, clouds eventually dominating, maybe with a passing shower today. The shower threat goes away but some clouds remain on Tuesday as a narrow extension of a larger high pressure area to our north tries to nose into our region. But this miniscule high pressure intrusion will be brief. The evolution of a new omega block will put its eastern low pressure member into our region from mid to late week, and surface low pressure associated with it will head from the Ohio Valley toward the Great Lakes, redeveloping near the Mid Atlantic Coast, taking a track that will bring us a chilly rain later Wednesday through Thursday, tapering off Friday – a spell of weather that will remind you of March or early April rather than late May. But there you have it…

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix with clouds becoming dominant. Chance of a passing rain shower, mainly southern NH / northeastern MA. Highs 59-66. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts as high as 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: More sun than clouds morning / more clouds than sun afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving southwest to northeast by late-day. Highs 53-60, coolest coastal areas. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Temperatures fall to 45-52 then steady. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain / drizzle. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Additional showers / drizzle, tapering off with time. Highs 52-59. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)

Upper level low pressure weakens but hangs around during the May 24-26 Memorial Day Weekend time period with a daily chance of diurnal showers. However much of the time will be rain-free, but cooler than normal. Yet another low pressure area brings the chance of rain May 27-28 with continued below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

A slow transition from blocking to zonal flow is expected to take place. Episodes of passing showers but drier overall. Temperatures near to below normal. Day-to-day details TBD.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 18-22)

Stacked low pressure (low pressure surface and aloft over the same area) will drift east southeast from Ontario / Maine to southern Atlantic Canada and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean through Monday, wandering away Tuesday as a weak ridge of high pressure builds in. The low pressure area will impact our weather through Monday with cooler, less humid air, lots of clouds, and a few passing showers – although most times will be rain-free in any given location. One detail to note: If you walk outside this morning, especially while there is still enough sun around, it will feel quite mild. This is because a surface occluded front that moved through overnight did not introduce a big change in air mass, only a modest one. The dew point has only dropped slightly, along with the temperature, but during the day today the former will continue to drop while the latter rises very little. This, combined with eventual abundant cumulus and stratocumulus cloud cover, will have the net effect of a cool-down, of course augmented by an increasingly gusty breeze on the back side of low pressure. This will set us up for a continuation of the dominant cloud / interval of sun type of sky on Monday, when a few additional passing showers are possible, along with a cool, gusty breeze. Yesterday, I felt a bit more optimistic about a sunnier Tuesday, but today, not so much. A forecaster can be lead astray by guidance that is showing things moving along too quickly in comparison to what actually happens. Yesterday, I had hopes that high pressure would overtake the region Tuesday enough to keep cloudiness away, but it appears that our region will still be close enough to upper level low pressure and resultant cool air above us that we will still have quite a few stratocumulus clouds about. This time, however, I can confidently keep the shower threat out of the forecast – so expect a dry day Tuesday, despite the lack of full sun. We’ll also see a breeze, though not as gusty as Monday, and cool conditions. So now you think, “ok, we paid our dues with this upper low, right? and it has to warm up and be nice next, right???” … Sorry, not correct. Our next low pressure area in the hybrid progressive / blocking pattern (high pressure eastern Canada, low pressure to the south), arrives at midweek. While there are some guidance differences, the general idea is a slightly elongated low pressure area will move our way via the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic, spreading its cloud shield into the region on Wednesday. Rain follows, along with a robust onshore flow and very cool air. This is likely to continue through Thursday, though there are some questions as to how deeply into the rain shield we end up. A little stronger high to the north could suppress the low far enough south for a lighter rainfall event. If this is not the case, a healthier soaking rainfall occurs – a May nor’easter of sorts – certainly not unprecedented but not something we see every year late in the 3rd month of meteorological spring. One definite silver lining, this likely event along with recent events continue to combine to reduce the drought / abnormally dry conditions that have affected the region for quite some time. I’ll continue to fine-tune the midweek forecast the next few days…

TODAY: Cloud / sun mix before clouds becoming dominant. A passing shower is possible any time this afternoon / early evening, favoring I-90 northward. Highs 62-69. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds / intervals of sun. A passing shower possible. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts as high as 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH, gusty.

TUESDAY: Limited sun / lots of clouds. Highs 59-66. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Considerably cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving southwest to northeast by late-day. Highs 53-60, coolest coastal areas. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Temperatures fall to 45-52 then steady. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 23-27)

Improving weather but still cool with a possible shower on May 23 as low pressure moves away. Gradually weakening upper level low pressure over the region during the Memorial Day Weekend (May 24-26) – this would promote a daily chance of showers and a few thunderstorms but also many dry hours. Another low pressure area may bring a general rainfall back by the end of the period. Temperatures run below normal in the expected pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

A low pressure dominated cool and unsettled pattern transitions to a drier and more progressive northwest flow pattern as we head through the final days of May toward the start of June.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)

In a “wet” pattern dominated by low pressure, you have your nice times. Yesterday afternoon, for example, was one of those times. While the higher humidity you could feel in the air may have been a little uncomfortable for some, you can’t deny the feel of early summer was with us – sun and clouds, and no showers and thunderstorms to track (they stayed well west and north). Now we reach the weekend and a weather transition will take place as low pressure drifts eastward through the Northeast and southeastern Canada. A large surface low pressure circulation will pass to our north today and tonight, and then shift a bit east southeastward into the Gulf of Maine and the southern portion of Atlantic Canada through Sunday into Monday as well. During this time, upper level low pressure also drifts into and then across the region from west to east – in no really hurry during the trip. The weather outlook in general hasn’t changed since my last update. The aim of this update is to pinpoint the weekend shower threats in more detail. The windows-of-opportunity are somewhat limited, so we’re going to salvage the majority of hours at any given location rain-free versus wet on both days. Today’s best shower threat comes in a west-to-east sweep from late morning to mid afternoon, but any given location would rain for a relatively short period of time. Additionally, another passing shower or thunderstorm can take place from around sunset to late evening, again west to east, and again being of short duration where they would occur. The difference between today and Sunday will be the “feel” of the air. Today’s higher dew points in the warm sector will give the muggy feel, while tomorrow, cooler air and much lower dew points, along with a breeze, will add a bit of chill to the air. As we find ourselves in the northwesterly flow Sunday on the back side of low pressure, any sun that we see will simply help to ignite more clouds, and some of these clouds will produce showers. Our best shot at showers Sunday comes during the second half of the afternoon into the evening. Getting to Monday, the upper low’s impacts are still apparent, with more clouds wheeling around its back side, and still the threat of a few passing showers during the day, although it looks like the greatest threat comes early in the day – will refine that timing. High pressure provides fair weather Tuesday. Enjoy it, because another storm system is on the way, and the rain threat returns during Wednesday. I’ll get more into that threat on tomorrow’s update.

TODAY: Cloudy through midday with a passing shower possible west to east. Clouds break for sun after with a shower or thunderstorm possible mainly west of I-95 toward evening. Highs 62-69 South Coast, 69-76 elsewhere. Wind S up to 10 MPH becoming variable then SW 5-15 MPH late-day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible until late evening. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 55-62. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers, mainly late afternoon to early evening. Highs 62-69. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind W under 10 MPH becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain arriving southwest to northeast. Highs 52-59. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 22-26)

Eyeing a coastal storm with wind/rain into May 22 along with well below normal temperatures. Improvement May 23. Memorial Day Weekend (May 24-26) early outlook: Upper level low pressure can produce diurnal scattered showers Saturday and Sunday before high pressure brings fair weather Monday. Obviously lower confidence that far in advance, but that’s an early call and will be updated and detailed as we get closer to it.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 27-31)

Large scale pattern for the last 5 days of May starts out on the cool side followed by some moderation. We may have to watch yet another storm system just to the south early in the period, but unclear on how big a threat that would be for additional rainfall. Stay tuned…