Thursday May 22 2025 Forecast (7:14AM)

146 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 22-26)

A late May coastal storm will impact our region today into Friday, with some lingering effects into the start of the Memorial Day Weekend as well. Today’s weather will feature the maximum effects of the storm system, as a redeveloped low pressure center over the Mid Atlantic cuts across far southeastern New England tonight. Ahead of it rain takes over, along with increasing northeasterly winds, strongest along the coast, and to go along with it unseasonably chilly air making it feel more like late March or early April. The impacts of this system will be noticeably less in the western reaches of the WHW forecast area, and even more so outside of it as you get west of the Connecticut River – more like a benign rain event with a breeze. As the low center lifts northeastward, it will begin to weaken as it heads through the Gulf of Maine into Atlantic Canada. Our wind at that time will back to north, eventually northwest, and wrap-around moisture associated with the storm system will still result in bouts of showers Friday and Saturday, but it appears the bulk of the rainfall may occur Friday night, leaving more rain-free times for both of those days. Upper level low pressure will also be drifting across the region Saturday and exiting as we move through Sunday and Monday. While I cannot rule out a pop-up shower Sunday, I think the day will be generally a rain-free one, and Memorial Day itself should be absent of any rain chances, with favorable conditions for outdoor observances.

TODAY: Overcast. Rain overspreads the region during this morning then continues, possibly heavy at times. Areas of drizzle and fog increasing too. Highs 46-53. Wind NE increasing to 15-30 MPH, higher gusts, especially coast, with frequent gusts 35+ MPH and peak gusts 50+ MPH favoring Cape Cod, but not reaching those levels until evening.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain, gradually tapering off overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH, higher gusts especially along the coast.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Chance of passing showers. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a passing shower. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73, cooler along the coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 27-31)

Watching for potential unsettled weather from another low pressure trough heading through next week, but this part of the outlook remains highly uncertain. Temperatures below normal for the final stretch of May.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 1-5)

A weakening of blocking and a somewhat more progressive pattern evolves. The outlook here would be a little drier overall, with near to below normal temperatures.

146 thoughts on “Thursday May 22 2025 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  1. Jimmy B some of your comments are going into moderation because the “B” is missing from your screen name. If you put it back, they should just return to appearing without going to moderation. If you want to use “Jimmy” without the “B”, I can approve that and those will go through. WordPress is very picky. 🙂

    1. Ahh…I was wondering. I don’t know what I did to make the B disappear because it is listed under my name. Let’s see if it comes up this time. Thanks TK!

      By the way, potential for 4 inches of rain here right along the South Coast?

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Yuck is the operative word. I hope the weather can improve after we rid ourselves of this mess.

    BUT, it doesn’t look that way. Will we have to wait till the 4th of July???????

  4. Thanks TK !

    A few red flags continue for me that this system, in the eastern half of Mass, has over-achieve potential.

    1) Against each models previous base-line models, many of them were at their lowest pressures yet on their 00z model runs. Euro now down to 992 mb, GFS under 1,000 mb. I find, many times, models level out 24-36 hrs before storm arrival.

    2) As you stated in your discussion, the max intensity of the storm is near us, btwn Block Island and just past Cape Cod. A lot of these systems hit max intensity past us, in downeast Maine or into the Maritimes.

    3) All levels of the atmosphere are vertically aligned. This is not a system where the upper features are lagging the sfc low.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2025052200&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=700wh&rh=2025052200&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=850wh&rh=2025052200&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025052200&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I’m not implying hurricane force wind gusts, but I wouldn’t be surprised by 60-65 mph gusts and someone approaching 4 inches of rain.

  5. Thank you TK!

    Just saw someone post on Facebook that their child’s dentist appointment has been cancelled today due to the storm.

  6. Thank you TK.

    Cold walk along the shore with northerly winds blowing into me on the return part of my walk. Some splash-over and lots of spray-over. Figuring on a higher level of splash-over later today.

    Just by observation, the wave speeds looked faster today. I know wave speeds are a matter of science … wave frequency, wave length, depth of ocean floor, etc … but they looked fast.

  14. Those temps are so cold. I’m sitting here bundled up in blankets fighting off the urge to turn my heat on. Looking forward to some warm sunny days. Thanks for the update.

    1. nice!!!!

      HRRR 850 temps below freezing, even in Boston or at least a little later today it shows that. 🙂

  18. 12z NAM pressure down to 993 mb near Cape COD from 997 mb on 00z.

    Perfectly vertically stacked.

    This could end up being quite interesting.

  20. Without snow, I’m having visions of the Dec 9th storm from 2005 with quite an impressive comma head (all that thundersnow) and explosive cape cod winds on the backside of the departing storm.

    1. Very interesting. I remember that storm well.

      This weather fascinates me. I would declare this a pajama day except I have a service call here in the afternoon. Sniff.

    2. If the precip is heavy enough when the winds turn more Northerly, it would NOT surprise me to see some snow mix
      in, even in Boston. This is a pretty cold system for this time of year. As you say, this could get interesting.

  21. Let’s see if the euro op run goes sub 990 mb. It was 992mb on the 00z run.

    I’m getting queasy thinking of coastal SE Mass school closures tomorrow.

    1. That would be a bummer. Silver Lake gets out on Friday, June 13th and no one wants to have to extend that until Monday the 16th!

  23. Thanks, TK!

    47 degrees; 0.33″

    Getting real dark.

    Debbie, I caved and put the heat on!!! 🙂

    2. I’ll put the heat on in JULY if I feel cold. The heat is there too keep us warm. Why torture ourselves and freeze to death??????

      1. Although I don’t mind the cold, I have a reason. Heat Cost just over $2000 for Jan and Feb combined.

  24. Loving today’s anomalous weather. 🙂

    Have to brave the brunt with mom for a 3:30 cardiologist appointment. We got this!

    1. You’re right. You’ve got this. I hope her appointment goes very well.

      I’m also loving the weather.

  25. Just curious. Radar shows it raining in Amesbury, but nothing reaching the ground here.

  26. A few things as I drink my morning coffee:

    1. I have Sox tickets for tonight. The odds of that game being played are roughly the same as the odds that I’m going to be hired as the Bruins next head coach.

    2. This morning NOAA released their Hurricane Outlook for this season. They are calling for an above normal season, with 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. If they continue to name every rotating thunderstorm over water, they’ll hit that without a problem. I’ll be putting up my annual start of hurricane season blog at some point in the next week, including stats on how extremely overdue we are here in New England. (It’s mostly written already) If you want to read NOAA’s outlook, the link is here: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season

    3. My Weekend Outlook will be up at some point this afternoon, but I don’t see it differing too much from what TK wrote above. I will say that beyond the weekend, much of next week wasn’t looking that great to me from what I saw on the models last night.

    1. 1) I’d hire you, but that can’t happen since I don’t hold that position…

      2) Looking forward to that!

      3) I am not that optimistic about next week.

  27. 12z GFS continues in catch-up with intensity mode as well as evolution. Lower pressure and compared to previous runs, it better shows the sfc low captured and tugged in right along the coast, captured within a perfectly vertically stacked system.

    I am growing more and more concerned for east coastal Mass.

      1. Mostly, but QPF too. Lots of 12z models now near or slightly over 3 inches in eastern Mass.

        1. The GFS is at 2.89 at Boston up to 4 inches in Plymouth County

          The GDPS is at 3.5 inches in the eastern quarter of Mass

          The NAM looks to be 2.5 inches in Boston up to 3″ in Plymouth.

  29. You know when we have a decent noreaster with copious precip and strong wind, BUT when one looks at the satellite, the storm doesn’t looked fully matured yet, but when it moves into the Maritimes, it has that classic look on satellite because the storm has perfectly vertically stacked.

    Well, its the reverse on this one, it all comes together perfectly southeast of us tonight and it will have that classic look on radar and satellite and by later tomorrow, won’t look as good to our north and northeast.

    So, that’s way I am playing a potential overperformance to what the models are showing and I still don’t feel like the models have leveled off yet, which I take notice of.

  30. Thank you, TK.

    Had my dentist appointment just now. Scheduled my next appointment for late November. Told the receptionist that it may very well turn out to be a nicer and warmer day at my next appointment.

    We’re merely 4 weeks removed from the solstice and the day with the most daylight hours. Hard to believe as I step outside.

    1. As the storm center passes by, yes.

      Keep in mind, most media made this sound like “Hurricane May” was coming. The headlines, not the mets.

  34. Had my follow-up appointment with my knee surgeon late this morning in Brookline and returned to Quincy just after 12:30. Made it through the rain. I had a good driver. 🙂

    My nights continue to be the most painful. Pain meds not all that much help.

  37. 45 with 44 DP. 0.68 in my bucket.

    Wind in the teens. Gusting to mid and a bit higher 20s.

  38. So far, NOT impressed with the wind at all.
    Currently wind NE at 21 mph at Logan and less here.
    0.65 inch so far at Logan.

  41. 2.1 inches in Padanaram Village and still raining hard. Not really much wind

  42. While I can’t stand the cold and we put the heat on to take the chill off (it was 59F in the hallway away from windows), I love watching this evolve.

    54 nautical miles SE of Nantucket, the buoy’s air temp has risen to 58F and the wind is veering to SE, so the low is going northwest of that.

    1. This is basically what I refer to when I say we should be more like our animal cousins … we have so many things to deal with foul weather, yet we spend a lot of time complaining about it. Meanwhile, this little guy is just doing his thing, foul weather is just “fowl” weather. 😉 heh!

      2. Haha. I love it. And we should definitely be more like our animal cousins. Way more

  45. Well, maybe in a few hrs, as the upper level lows stack, the heavy rain is going to settle over an area for a while, while the area begins to pivot. It’s now SSE to NNW and that will evolve to E to W, then NE to SW, etc.

    Where that sort of stop ends up occurring and then pivoting from say 7/8 pm til midnight or so will determine who gets 3-4 inches. The short term models seem to think it’s Boston to Plymouth. We’ll see.

    1. Stacked lows, cyclonic loops, etc. are always fascinating to me. I love watching (and trying to forecast) the precipitation patterns & behavior.

  48. 41F here. Maybe this is all snow only 30 days ago. Thinking this setup would have snowed at 36F

    1. Go back about 6 weeks and we’d be dealing with a solid 6+ wet snowfall. Probably some double-digit amounts.

      The 10:1 correlation would fail significantly. Not even close to a 20-30″ (or greater) snowfall.

  50. Over three inches of rain now in the gauge and getting thunder in distance. Storms pivoting off ocean towards the South Coast. Wild!

    1. The lightning app showed tons of lightning over the cape a bit ago.

      My oldest grand is loving lightning pro and as of tonight windy.

    1. I’ve been there when this has happened. It’s wild to watch. Sometimes the waves make it all the way to the boardwalk walk.

      Good thing tides are not that astronomically high right now.

  54. I think we’re in a rain death band now.

    And the wind has picked up noticeably.

  55. It only took the Florida Panthers just over 1 minute to get the lead in game 2 against the Hurricanes… 😉

      1. And a 5-0 final. Total domination.

        But it’s a best-of-7 for a reason, we’ll see.

  58. My plan was to hike this weekend in the Whites. Not looking good at all. The trails figure to be rivers! Ugh!!

  59. New thunderstorms reinvigorating just northwest of the Sagamore Bridge and southwest of Bourne on the Cape and the southern tail of that is making some east progress.

  61. Lots of thunder & tropical downpours but no wind at all as of now .

  65. I wonder if tonight we have witnessed the effects of NWS staff cuts because a decent area in SE Mass has received 3-5 inches of rain, a majority of it in a handful of hours and not flood or flash flood advisory to be found.

    1. 2.60″ here. Impressive and prolonged thunderstorms and only 45 degrees! ‘Night, y’all!

  66. Thanks TK. 1.73” of rain here in Coventry CT and only 41F. If this were a few months ago, I would be pissed I was missing out on the “jackpot” to the east of me. Nonetheless this probably would have been good for a solid foot of heavy wet snow here if this were late March.

  67. House temp is down to 63F. We’ll find out how much lower it goes because I refuse to turn the heat back on when we are a little over a week from June!

  69. 2.21 here and trying to get that drying from the east I. Here. 6.31 for the month. We had 2 inches last Thursday am during some morning thunderstorms.

  71. This isn’t quite to the level of something like “The Mother’s Day Flood” in 2006 …but it’s definitely among the more impressive May storm systems we’ve seen in our long weather history, with rainfall amounts, not wind, being the main story.

    On the bright side, more drought / dryness obliteration ongoing.

    1. We went to the facility in cohasset for brunch that day. My oldest was planning on having her wedding reception there. There were buckets throughout catching leaks. Thankfully that was resolved for her wedding a year later

  72. JR mentioned on air that if this was snow, amounts would have been a widespread 1-2 FEET.

    I still don’t understand why the 10:1 correlation wouldn’t apply. Obviously JR has no problem moving the decimal point, if you will. 😉

    Based on TK’s thoughts above, more like a 6-12” snowfall?

    1. IDK Philip. I’ve known JR since he arrived on the scene at whdh and we worked on its weather spotters project. He is a very close second in my book to Pete. I’ve never known him to just make things up.

  73. 4.94 here so far, short term/long term drought is gonzo at this point and with next week rain as well.

  74. I’m glad the wind behaved, the rain overachieved in a very awesome to watch influx of Atlantic moisture and the sustained tstorms were impressive. So fun watching the satellite and radar evolution. Great event.

    Ok, bring on 85F with tolerable humidity. ……. Ok, I’ll settle for 65F 🙂

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