Wednesday May 21 2025 Forecast (7:33AM)

46 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 21-25)

A quick breather before our next “weathermaker” aka “The May Nor’easter” comes along. Low pressure heads for the Great Lakes today as we have a marine air flow here. There is enough dry air about to break up some of the lower cloud cover so some areas see a few peeks of sunshine this morning. However, a more extensive high to mid level cloud deck will be advancing in from the west and southwest ahead of our developing storm system. The aforementioned low pressure area will redevelop in the Mid Atlantic and head our way, taking a track right across far southeastern New England (Cape Cod / Islands) late Thursday and early Friday. We catch it in its peak intensity cycle too, maximizing the rain, wind, and chilly air with it. This takes place during the day Thursday, into the evening, before diminishing. The low pressure center weakens as it wanders through the Gulf of Maine toward Atlantic Canada, and on its back side, while Friday is still unsettled, it will be less wet, less windy, but still cool. We then reach the Memorial Day Weekend at which time we’ll take one step back on Saturday as the remains of the original low pressure area come across the region as a trough with lots of clouds and a chance of showers, before improvement arrives Sunday in the wake of that system. Tomorrow’s update will expand upon the outlook for the entirety of the Memorial Day Weekend, including the holiday itself which will be “day 5”.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle this afternoon. Highs 52-59, coolest coastal areas. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially along the coast, up to 30+ MPH overnight.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain likely and can be heavy at times. Drizzle/fog. Highs 47-54. Wind NE 15-30 MPH, higher gusts, especially coastal areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain, gradually tapering off overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially along the coast.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle. Chance of passing showers. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 43-50. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Additional showers likely. Highs 54-61. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 26-30)

Memorial Day (May 26) looks fair and milder at this point. Watching for potential unsettled weather from another low pressure trough heading through next week, but this part of the outlook is highly uncertain currently. Temperatures trend cooler again.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

Gradual shift from blocking to progressive pattern means briefer unsettled periods and more variable temperatures, but still averaging near to below normal.

46 thoughts on “Wednesday May 21 2025 Forecast (7:33AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Well, the Euro op run and many of the other models have a little stronger low (995mb ish) vs the GFS (1,000 mb ish) at a time when the low is btwn Block Island and Cape Cod. I’m going to side with the slightly stronger low simulations.

  5. It seems that the model consensus is calling for 2 inches +
    for this Nor’Easter.

    2. We’re going to go from 50s, a few 60s and maybe a 70F mixed about through the first few days of June …….. straight to 95F plus by about June 6th.

      That’s just what it does up here 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  7. Thank you TK.

    Good thing my winter coat is in my car for today’s baseball game. 🙂

  8. Thanks TK! Sat through the Mets putrid performance at Fenway last night. It was cold and dreary. Tough to watch a good team slump, especially not taking advantage of the starting pitcher getting tossed in 3rd inning. I had not seen that in a long long time.

    1. Yes, the Sox bullpen did great last night.

      Most every pitcher might get thrown out in that scenario. I get the catcher is coming up quick due to the attempted steal, but that pitch was right down the middle of the plate in the zone. I hope the ump took a look at the pitch after the game and reflected that Bueller had a right to be bewildered. And I think it was against Soto maybe, who is hard enough to get out without the ump working against you.

  9. Thank you, TK

    My nephew who lives in NH took some credit for this weather. He opened their pool last weekend. I didn’t have the heart to tell him I enjoy this weather.

  10. Hmmm….

    If one goes by the 12Z HRRR, Tomorrow afternoon surface temperatures in the Boston area will be about 45 degrees, while 850 MB temperature are progged to be very close to 0 degrees C.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=850th&rh=2025052112&fh=32&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    I don’t have the 925 mb temps with the HRRR, but this makes me a little nervous about the possibility of SNOW mixing in.
    The model itself only has snow in the higher elevations

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=sfct-imp&rh=2025052112&fh=32&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2025052112&fh=32&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    None-the-less, it makes me wonder.

    In all likelyhood, just a NASTY COLD RAIN here, but wow!
    Too close for comfort, if you ask me.

    1. I KNOW with the wind off of the ocean at this time of year it would prevent the column from cooling enough for snow. It’s just
      that it is closer than one would otherwise think. 🙂

  14. I feel so bad for you guys…woke up this morning here in Missouri City with a temperature of 79 and the DP had dropped from last night’s 79 to 60. Should be near 90 and comfortable today.
    Sadly, your temperatures won’t get as high as our DPs.
    We get home late Sunday. TK, please get rid of that crappy weather by then for us.

  16. Kind of surprised to see several local tv stations rate tomorrow’s storm impact as moderate. Seems like it would be higher given the tendency to over hype just about every event.

  18. Thanks, TK.

    Well, I guess it’s time to get ready for winter on this late November day. Retrieved the woolen sweaters from the blanket chest, the space heater out of the closet, and the old red shovel from the basement for when it does snow in the coming months … Oh, hold on, it’s May 21st.

  21. Just got back from walking down to the post office.
    It was spitting something, light rain or drizzle.
    Wicked cool for May 21st. It is 49 now but was 48 an hour ago.
    Fresh wind from the NE.

    2. Most of what comes from the west will fail (dry up) until about 10z to 12z tomorrow.

  23. Eric F has an afternoon post of what looks like a simulated water vapor image for tomorrow evening and some of the short range models radar and satellite simulations also look very impressive. Quite an event coming for late May.

  24. Florida Panthers easily took game one of the Eastern Conference Final on the road in Carolina yesterday to take a 1-0 series lead.

    Tonight, I think Edmonton is going to grab game 1 of the Western Conference Final in Dallas. But my predictions have been pretty bad these playoffs, so we’ll see. 😉

    1. The poor Bruins matched up against them 2 years ago and that was the Panthers we have arrived series. Since then, they’ve lost just one series, otherwise they’d be 2 time defending champs.

      They already had an awesome 1st and 2nd line and now Marchand has further elevated their 3rd line.

  25. Any basketball predictions?
    First time in 25 years I am watching my Knicks in a conference final. Pacers are no push over.

    1. I think Pacers in 6.

      Pacers are 8-9 deep. They have a closer in Haliburton and as the series progresses, I think they’ll wear the Knicks down. If this is wrong, still a series I’ll watch because of all the Pacers / Knicks series in the 90s btwn the Reggie Miller and Patrick Ewing teams.

      1. I don’t know much about the NBA but from what I do know, I basically agree with you Tom.

  26. If this was March or earlier, we would easily be facing down the barrel of an historic blizzard. ❄️ 🙂

    I bet Boston and most of SNE would have record snows near and exceeding 30 inches!

    We couldn’t get one coastal all winter and with Memorial Day upcoming, a classic. Oh well. 🙁

    1. Not necessarily. Refer to the numerous previous mentions of the difference between the ability of air to hold moisture based on temperature. Although we’d likely have seen a significant snow for at least parts of the region. This also occurs before the holiday weekend, which is going to show marked improvement in our weather.

      We can’t even come close to saying Boston would have exceeded 30 inches from this. Doesn’t work like that. See my opening line of this comment.

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