DAYS 1-5 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

On this final day of July, with a frontal boundary having dropped through the region overnight and becoming quasi-stationary near the South Coast, a wave of low pressure will develop and start moving along the front. This will bring a widespread rainfall to the region, developing / evolving during the day and peaking in coverage and intensity this evening and tonight. Rainfall may be heavy enough to lead to some areas of flooding, especially on roadways, so use caution if traveling. During Friday, a drying trend will take place from northwest to southeast as the low pressure wave moves by and away, and clearing will follow later Friday through Friday night. This sets up a fabulous weekend as high pressure builds in with fair weather, low humidity, and generally seasonably temperatures, though a bit cooler Saturday than Sunday. Fair weather continues and a warm-up takes place early next week as high pressure sinks slightly southward.

TODAY: Partly sunny for a while in some locations, then becoming cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers develop morning-midday, becoming more numerous to eventually widespread afternoon-evening. Embedded downpours possible with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with showers gradually diminishing northwest to southeast, followed by breaking clouds / partial clearing with similar trend. Areas of fog early. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+. Wind E backing to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind N to NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point sub-60. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)

High pressure will be dominant with fair weather and typical summertime temperatures across the region for this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)

High pressure shifts off the Atlantic Coast heading toward mid month, with a pattern that would feature higher humidity and a slightly better chance to see some shower and thunderstorm development at times.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

High pressure offshore provides one more day of heat for much of the region, but a weak wind field also will allow for more coastal sea breezes to develop, taking the edge off the heat for those locations. A west to northwest wind helped lower the dew point yesterday from around 70 to the middle 60s, in general, and while this is still humid, it sits below the oppressive category, and will generally hang out in the 60s through today. There are still patches of Canadian wildfire smoke working their way through in a northwesterly air flow aloft, so the sky will have a hazy look. While a cold front approaches, the instability and triggering mechanisms are limited, and it appears that the greatest chance for a few storms to fire up will be south of I-90, particularly southern CT, southern RI, and the MA South Coast west of the Cape Cod Canal, in the 3 p.m. to 8 p.m. time frame. Any storms that do develop here can produce brief torrential rain, small hail, and strong wind gusts, as well as cloud-to-ground lightning. If you have outdoor plans, be on the look-out should a storm develop near or approach your area. The storm threat ends by sunset and tonight will be a quiet, mild, humid night as the front settles through. The boundary then comes to a stop near the South Coast on Thursday, and sets up a situation where a wave of low pressure will keep our weather unsettled Thursday into Friday, first with some showers initiating somewhere in our region, then growing in coverage to a fairly widespread rainfall by Thursday evening into Friday early morning, before diminishing and pulling out of the region from northwest to southeast during the day on Friday. Significantly cooler air will arrive during this time, although it will remain relatively humid until the rain exits later Friday, after which drier air arrives. Clearing Friday night will then lead to a fabulous weekend as high pressure builds in, with seasonable temperatures and low humidity.

TODAY: Sunshine dominates. Clouds pop up this afternoon especially south of I-90 with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs 88-95, except 80-87 many coastal locations. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers develop morning-midday, becoming more numerous to eventually widespread afternoon-evening. Embedded downpours possible with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with showers gradually diminishing northwest to southeast, followed by breaking clouds / partial clearing with similar trend. Areas of fog early. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+. Wind E backing to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind N to NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point sub-60. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)

High pressure will be dominant with fair weather and typical summertime temperatures across the region for this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

High pressure focus shifts off the Atlantic Coast heading toward mid month, with a pattern that would feature higher humidity and a slightly better chance to see some shower and thunderstorm development at times.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Heat and humidity dominate today (peak day) into tomorrow (final day) before a change to cooler weather, along with some additional rain, before a drying trend. That’s the one-line synopsis of the next 5 days. Here are the details… You wouldn’t know it, but what used to be a cold front pushed through our region early this morning. But this front is far from its source region with a very modified air mass behind it. The only change is to shift the wind from predominantly southwest to more of a west northwest direction, and take the dew point down up to a few degrees. Hardly noticeable just walking out the door, but somewhat significant to today’s forecast. The west northwest wind will likely be strong enough to prevent any coastal sea breezes, except being a direct sea breeze where it comes across water before reaching land again (Outer Cape Cod, for example). While places in examples like that will be modified cooler, a west northwest wind is one of the hotter summer winds for our region, and that will be the case today, with the non-modified areas, a vast majority of our region, exceeding 90 for high temps. And despite the tiny dew point decline, it will still be quite humid as they even recover that mini-loss, if not during the day today, by sometime this evening. In short, a hot day. I am now reluctant to call for any isolated showers and thunderstorms today as it looks like they just don’t have the trigger to fire up. I would not be totally surprised if one did, but I think the chance is so remote that other than this discussion they don’t get included in the detailed forecast that follows it. Next up, Wednesday. The outlook for this day is a little different than I had a few days ago, when I thought the set-up and timing of things would be slightly different. It’s going to be another hot and humid day, and with the approach of a cold front we will have to watch for the development of showers and thunderstorms. I expect these to be mostly from mid afternoon into the evening, and while I am not expecting widespread coverage, there can be individual storms or small storm clusters that can be quite strong, possibly severe (primary threat being straight line wind gusts). Keep an eye out for those, also knowing that some places will end up seeing little or nothing. Places that do get hit can be impacted significantly, at least for a brief time. Temperatures are a little tricky. I think upper 80s to middle 90s is a safe bet for high temps in most of the region, with typically cooler conditions for the South Coast / Cape Cod with a “mostly” southwesterly air flow. However, the air flow at the surface is not going to be that strong, and this does allow for the possibility of the wind becoming more south to southeast along MA’s eastern coast, including Boston, which could hold the maximums down a little in those locations. The cold front moves through in the evening but doesn’t get far. It comes to a stop just to our south and southeast early Thursday, and provides a running board for a wave of low pressure set to move along it later Thursday through early Friday, producing a swath of rainfall here. Reliable guidance has been starting to paint this as a moderate to heavy rainfall event for at least a portion of the region – fine tuning to come still. Current expected timing for most rain is later Thursday to early Friday. Later Friday into Saturday, drier and cooler weather is expected.

TODAY: Clouds mainly I-90 southward early depart, otherwise sunshine. Highs 90-97 except 80s some coastal areas and some 70s Cape Cod / Islands. Dew point declines slightly from near 70 to middle 60s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Scattered to clustered showers and thunderstorms mid afternoon on, with a few strong to severe storms possible. Highs 88-95, however cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, with a potential SE shift in eastern coastal areas. Wind can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the evening. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind shifting to NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with showers early, then a slow clearing trend. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60+. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point not far from 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

High pressure will be dominant with fair weather and typical summertime temperatures across the region for this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

High pressure focus shifts off the Atlantic Coast heading toward mid month, with a pattern that would feature higher humidity and a slightly better chance to see some shower and thunderstorm development at times.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Temperature and dew point had a meeting in many areas overnight. The result: fog. If you are enshrouded in your area early this morning, it won’t last too long, but it can be dense in some locations, limiting visibility. Otherwise, high pressure moves offshore today and anchors itself there into Wednesday. This results in a bout of hotter, humid weather for our region. A cold front approaches later Wednesday. While today will have no showers and storms, tomorrow a few air mass storms could pop up during the afternoon, and Wednesday we’ll have to watch for front-triggered showers and storms afternoon and evening. Thursday and Friday are set feature a cooling trend, but the question to be answered at this point is whether we see mostly dry weather, or additional unsettled weather. The front moving through late Wednesday is likely to come to a halt just to our south by early Thursday, and a wave of low pressure is likely to ride along it. The exact position of the front, timing and strength of the wave will determine how much additional cloud cover and wet weather end up occurring Thursday and/or Friday. My best shot at this prognostication sits below in the detailed forecast, but will likely need to be tweaked and fine-tuned as this week goes on.

TODAY: Foggy areas early to mid morning, otherwise hazy sun with smoke aloft. Highs 85-92, however cooler in some coastal areas, especially Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. High altitude smoke diminishes / patchy fog develops. Lows 65-72, warmest urban areas. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind S to SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon, mainly west of I-95. Highs 89-96, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered to clustered afternoon / evening showers / thunderstorms. Highs 88-95, except cooler South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the evening. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind shifting to NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with showers early, then a slow clearing trend. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60+. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

Indications are that high pressure takes over and remains in control with dry weather for this 5-day stretch, which starts out slightly cooler than average then develops a slow warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

Fair weather holds early in the period. A couple disturbances from the west bring shower and thunderstorm chances by mid to late period. Generally seasonably warm temperatures are expected for this stretch of time.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 27-31)

A low pressure area passing to our north sends a warm front through the region this morning and a cold front through later today, but overall it’s just an unsettled day. The more widespread showers move west to east through the region this morning – mostly light to moderate, but there could be an embedded heavier one even with some thunder. Another passing shower or thunderstorm is possible any time after this initial batch, but most of that will be concentrated with the cold front moving through later in the day. So, while there are rain-free times, be prepared for showery weather at times. Not much change to the remainder of the forecast. Monday’s a very warm, humid day as high pressure builds in. There’s not much dry air behind today’s system, in contrast to the nice air mass we had yesterday behind Friday’s cold front. The heat builds more on Tuesday, and a weak cold front may trigger a late-day shower or thunderstorm, but activity looks limited due to “lack of decent parameters”. Fair, warm, slightly less humid weather will be here Wednesday as another high pressure system controls things, before the next disturbance brings unsettled weather back for Thursday. Canadian wildfire smoke thins today, not that you’ll notice much with abundant cloud cover much of the time, but makes a come-back Monday before easing toward midweek.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely west to east morning-midday. Embedded thunder is possible, especially southwest of Boston . Clouds can break for sun but an additional shower or thunderstorm possible rest of day. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a possible shower in the evening. Clearing but patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine. Highs 83-90, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day showers / thunderstorms possible, mainly western areas. Highs 86-93. Dew point 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to 70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Shower chance overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)

High pressure dominates with a dry stretch of weather the first several days of August, starting out cooler than average followed by a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)

Seasonable weather, limited wet weather chances is the general idea, but we will have to keep an eye on a few potential things to bring some unsettled weather to track. Long way out / long time to check them out.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 26-30)

Today is a day that will “look” hot and humid, because of a veil of Canadian wildfire smoke that is moving northwest to southeast across our sky in the upper level wind flow. But looks can be deceiving, because while it will be a warm day, it won’t be nearly as hot as yesterday, and will be much less humid, as a Canadian air mass with much lower dew points has arrived behind a cold front. That was the front that triggered thunderstorms for many areas, especially southeastern sections, during yesterday afternoon. High pressure is now in control and will provide our nice day, albeit with smoke-filtered sunshine. At least there is no rain threat, and this makes 4 consecutive Saturdays without a drop of rain in Boston (5 out of 6) – how come the mainstream media isn’t talking about that streak?! 😉 That said, the area is not going to have a completely dry Sunday, as a quick-moving disturbance will be delivering a batch of showers from west to east Sunday morning and midday. Although it moves out quickly enough that a few to several hours of the afternoon / evening may end up being fairly decent with breaking clouds and just a chance of an additional passing shower. High pressure moves in Monday with fair, warm, humid weather, then slides offshore with a shot of heat and humidity for Tuesday. Another wildfire smoke plume is likely to filter the sunshine again on Monday. A trough / frontal system approach late Tuesday with a thunderstorm threat, but timing may be later evening / night, limiting the thunderstorm chances. Wednesday, another high builds in with fair, warm, less humid weather.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine / high clouds also stream in midday on. Highs 78-85, coolest in coastal locations. Dew point falling through 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Smoke exits / clouds increase. Lows 62-69. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely west to east morning-midday. Clouds can break for sun but an additional shower possible rest of day. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a possible shower in the evening. Clearing but patchy ground fog overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine. Highs 83-90, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day showers / thunderstorms possible, mainly western areas. Highs 86-93. Dew point 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to 70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point near 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Eyeing a disturbance for a shower/thunderstorm chance some time July 31. High pressure brings fair weather for the first several days of August, starting with a shot of cooler air then followed by a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)

Overall pattern features near to below normal temperatures but also mostly dry weather with a continued dominant northwesterly air flow.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 25-29)

The biggest forecast focus in the short term is today’s heat and thunderstorm threat. The set-up is the classic high pressure offshore / cold front approaching and moving in from the northwest. No records are likely to fall in the heat department today but it’ll be pretty hot nonetheless, with high humidity, but not unlimited sun as already high and mid level clouds associated with the upper trough driving the frontal system into our region are already moving in as I write this. So expect some sun limitation from those. What we really need to watch for are developing cumulus / cumulonimbus clouds which will be a sign of the thunderstorms. Initially, I think a few isolated storms will pop in southern NH and perhaps north central MA, with eventually these increasing in number while the area moves southeastward, eventually forming a broken to solid line as it moves through the I-95 / I-90 belt and southeastward from there. The area with the best chance for the greatest coverage is southeast of the I-95 / I-90 region. Regardless, any storm can be strong to severe, so keep a close eye on the sky / radar especially if you have outdoor plans. I’m eyeing the possibility of a few more showers and storms, maybe even a small line, that can develop later in the afternoon and impact parts of southeastern NH and northeastern MA, which has been indicated by some reliable short range guidance. By tonight, the front sweeps through and the threat ends. High pressure builds in for Saturday which will be quite a nice day, but you’ll already notice some high clouds streaming across the sky during the day ahead of the next disturbance, which is set to bring more cloudiness back along with the chance for showers and thunderstorms at some point Sunday. Guidance varies on the timing of the shower / storm threat from this, but I’m leaning toward a dry morning and afternoon / evening unsettled weather. I’ll tweak and detail this on my weekend blog posts. Early next week, fair weather returns along with some July heat to go along with it as there’s no real delivery of Canadian air behind Sunday’s system. Later Tuesday, the next disturbance / front may be close enough to trigger late-day showers and storms to the west.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop north and west of Boston 1:00 p.m. to 3:00 p.m. time window, increasing in coverage while moving through Metro Boston, central to southeastern MA, eastern CT, and RI mid through late afternoon. Additional showers / storms possible southeastern NH and northeastern MA late-day. Any thunderstorms can produce frequent lightning, small hail, and strong (potentially damaging) wind gusts. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 66-73. Dew point falls below 65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun followed by clouds with a chance of afternoon showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 60s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the evening. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point falls to near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91, but turning cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind NW up to 10 MPH except developing coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day showers / thunderstorms possible, mainly western areas. Highs 85-92. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Overall pattern is dry with a slight cooling trend with dominant northwesterly flow from Canada. Disturbance bringing shower threat is most likely to pass by sometime July 31.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)

Overall pattern features near to below normal temperatures but also mostly dry weather with a continued dominant northwesterly air flow.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 24-28)

Offshore high pressure increases the heat and humidity today, but with fair weather. Heat and humidity peaks on Friday but with the addition of a shower and thunderstorm chance from a cold front moving into and through the region from northwest to southeast during the afternoon and evening. This breaks the heat and lowers the humidity and sets up a stellar summer Saturday as high pressure moves in. But systems moving right along mean that we’ll head right back to an unsettled weather threat Sunday as a disturbance and frontal system move in from the west. Currently, it looks like a dry morning followed by a showery afternoon, and I will have to fine-tune timing, coverage, and duration for that system still. Behind that, another high builds in with fair weather for next Monday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine through midday. Clouds develop / arrive during the afternoon with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Lingering showers / thunderstorms possible south of I-90 early, otherwise clearing. Lows 66-73. Dew point falls below 65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, except cooler in some coastal locations. Dew point near 60. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun followed by clouds with a chance of afternoon showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 60s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the evening. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point falls to near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

A general northwesterly air flow will send a couple disturbances / fronts through with limited shower and thunderstorm chances during a stretch of mostly fair weather. Most likely days for non-zero t-storm chances are July 29 and 31. Temperatures variable, averaging not far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 3-7)

Indications continue for large scale northwest flow – some up and down temps but nothing extreme, and mainly dry with a couple passing shower / t-storm chances from disturbances moving along the upper flow.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 23-27)

An area of high pressure will slide offshore today and sit for a few days, turning up the heat and humidity as we head toward the end of the week. This morning, being rather cool, calm, and still dry, will present quite a contrast from just over 48 hours from now when we’ll be on the day of peak heat with high temps in the 90s for most areas with dew points nearing 70. That rather brief heat spike will be cut back this coming weekend though. We’ll have a cold front cross the region Friday late day / evening with a thunderstorm threat, and high pressure settle in enough to provide fair weather for Saturday. But a disturbance from the west may bring unsettled weather back to the region at some point on Sunday. Some guidance has this further south and not much of an impact here, but I’ll monitor that.

TODAY: Mostly sunny – high cloud patches passing by during this morning and pop-up fair weather clouds this afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point rises toward 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind S to SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine through midday. Clouds develop / arrive later in the day with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms during the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point near 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH but can be strong and gusty near any storms.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 83-90, cooler in some coastal locations. Dew point upper 60s. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

A general northwesterly air flow will send a couple disturbances / fronts through with limited shower and thunderstorm chances during a stretch of mostly fair weather. Temperatures variable, averaging not far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)

Indications continue for large scale northwest flow – some up and down temps but nothing extreme, and mainly dry with a couple passing shower / t-storm chances from disturbances moving along the upper flow.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 22-26)

High pressure sits overhead today, providing a very pleasant summer day. The high then slides offshore Wednesday and anchors for a while into late week, initiating a trend to warm then hot weather with more humidity Wednesday through Friday. Later Friday, a cold front approaches. The timing of this front will determine timing, coverage, and to some degree intensity of thunderstorm activity. Afternoon to early evening arrival would mean greater potential, while later evening arrival would lessen the potential. This is something to be fine-tuned over the next few days. Saturday’s weather will be less hot, still humid, and contain the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms as the frontal boundary slows down and becomes quasi-stationary while losing its identity, so this time I cannot call for a clear-out / dry-out situation. Will keep an eye on that.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point upper 40s to middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog inland low elevations. Lows 48-55. Dew point below 50. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest Cape Cod / South Coast. Dew point rising through 50s to around 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind S to SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine through midday. Clouds develop / arrive later in the day with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms during the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point near 70. Wind variable 5-15 MPH but can be strong and gusty near any storms.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Pop-up showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 27-31)

A disturbance may bring additional showers and thunderstorms July 27 and/or July 28 with a trend toward mostly fair weather after that with only a brief shower / t-storm chance at some point from a passing disturbance next week. Temperatures somewhat variable but overall more seasonable.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 1-5)

Early August indications are for large scale northwest flow – some up and down temps but nothing extreme, and mainly dry with a couple passing shower / t-storm chances from disturbances moving along the upper flow.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 21-25)

We know that low pressure areas can bring us a variety of weather. However, high pressure areas can do the same, in their own way, and the next 5 days will provide an example of that. It may not sound like it when I first say that high pressure will bring us fair weather today into Friday, until a cold front approaches and brings a shot at showers and thunderstorms later Friday. Fair weather is fair weather, but the differences are in wind direction / speed, air temperature, and dew point, based on the position of the high pressure area, and this is a big factor in how it feels. So how does that change during these days? Today, with the high center in the northern Great Lakes, the flow between it and eastern Canadian low pressure will deliver a cool, dry, Canadian air mass on a gusty northwesterly breeze. One note though: Usually on days like this week think of a cobalt blue sky to go with the pleasant air mass, but you’ll notice a bit of a hazy look instead, and this is due to a plume of wildfire smoke aloft from Canada. Tuesday, as the high center builds from the Great Lakes into New England, we’ll see the northwesterly breeze fade away, and much lighter wind which will then allow a coastal sea breeze to develops. Wednesday, the high center starts to move offshore to our east and southeast, so a cool and calm Tuesday night after the sea breeze collapses will be replaced with a light southerly air flow and the first up-tick in the humidity after two very dry days. The air temperature will also rise a little, with some areas breaking 80 after two days in the 70s. This day, the “coolest” air would be at the South Coast due to the southerly wind flow being directly off the ocean water, which does run slightly cooler than what the land will warm up to during the day. Thursday and Friday, high pressure will remain offshore to the southeast and pump in increasing amounts of heat and humidity, peaking on Friday ahead of the aforementioned cold front. So there is how the weather changes from one “fair weather” system during the course of several days. Still, it’s a pretty decent vacation week in the region if it’s the one you picked and you’re hanging around here, or visiting here from elsewhere. Enjoy!

TODAY: Thin smoke aloft, otherwise sunshine with some passing clouds. Highs 72-79. Dew point falls through the 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point below 50. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 71-78, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point below 50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog inland low elevations. Lows 48-55. Dew point below 50. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest Cape Cod / South Coast. Dew point rising through 50s to around 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind S to SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine through midday. Clouds develop / arrive later in the day with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 26-30)

There’s some uncertainty on the weekend forecast (July 26-27) based on the movement / positioning of the front that comes into our region later Friday. How I think it plays out is the front is still near the South Coast into Saturday with a shower and thunderstorm threat lingering in southern areas with fair weather to the north, and then the front lifts slowly back to the north with the help of an approaching disturbance from the west Sunday with eventually a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. Beyond that, timing of the disturbance would determine the July 28 weather – possibly with the disturbance slow enough for additional showers and storms, then fair weather following that toward the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Overall pattern indications a west to northwest flow east of a central US high pressure ridge with a trough of low pressure in Atlantic Canada. Shower/thunderstorm chances would be limited to a couple passing disturbances and most of the time the region would see fair weather, with somewhat variable temperatures but no sustained heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 20-24)

Yesterday was the pick of the weekend for the vast majority of people. Today is the pick of the weekend if you like higher humidity, less sun, and at least the chance of a thunderstorm. (And not that this next statement is relevant to the forecast, but I pick both days – haha!) … But writing in favor of the likings of the “weather majority”, the high pressure area that brought us very nice weather yesterday has departed and today we’ll be dealing with an area of low pressure passing to our northwest, bringing us higher humidity and some unsettled weather. Our wet weather / storm chances will be limited though, and for any given location most of today will be rain-free. A warm front passing by this morning brings the best chance of showers to the South Coast and Cape Cod, but a lot of this will stay over water just to the south, and the last of it should exit that region by noon. Otherwise, a cloud canopy covers much of the region to start the day, but later this morning into this afternoon a clearing trend will allow for a fair amount of sunshine – with that sun also reaching southeastern areas later. This means that your Sunday turns quite nice, despite the higher humidity, because a ventilating breeze will accompany the increase in sunshine too. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the northwest later in the day, and across NY and northern New England we’ll see showers and thunderstorms pop up and eventually organize into a broken line (perhaps 2 lines as some short range guidance has hinted at that). For the majority of the WHW forecast area though I am expecting the impact to be from one broken line of showers and storms passing through from northwest to southeast generally from 3:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m. Note! That 6-hour window does not mean you see rain and thunder for 6 hours. It means that during that 6 hour window, the front and its accompanying convective activity move from northwest to southeast across the region. Pick any given location and a shower or thunderstorm would visit for 30 to 90 minutes, in general – with a tendency to be more to the shorter duration of that range. Additional, a broken line of convection can have gaps in it which means that some areas can be grazed or even entirely missed – seeing little or nothing. This is the nature of convective activity, so monitor radar if you have plans in the time window of concern. For areas that do see the stronger storms, expect brief torrential rain, potentially frequent lightning, possible small hail, and the biggest threat being strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. All of this ends by late evening as the front clears the coast. Then cue the Canadian air mass which moves in for Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds southeastward into our region. Temperatures fall below normal during this time with very dry air as well. Heading to midweek, Wednesday and Thursday will feature fair weather and a warming trend as high pressure slides offshore.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy this morning with scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket. Sun / cloud mix this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms becoming more likely from northwest to southeast mid afternoon on. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, some higher gusts, especially afternoon. Thunderstorms can contain strong, gusty winds.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 54-61. Dew point drops below 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Dew point in 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Dew point in 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point in 40s Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior low elevations. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SSW under 10 MPH.,

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 25-29)

Brief heat / humidity spike July 25 with late-day t-storm potential from approaching cold front. Early look at the July 26-27 weekend shows fair weather July 26 and unsettled weather with a disturbance on July 27, but this far in advance timing is not super-certain. Fair, dry weather would follow that later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

West to northwest air flow east of a central US ridge, with trough in Atlantic Canada. This pattern is dry much of the time, brief shower / t-storm chances from passing disturbances, and features variable temperatures with no sustained heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 19-23)

High pressure provides a candidate for a “top ten” summer day today with lots of sun, light wind, pleasant air, a coastal sea breeze – all of that stuff! Your decision on the rank! High pressure departs tonight and a disturbance approaches from the west. This is part of our transition into a faster west to northwest flow pattern. Low pressure passing to our north Sunday will provide unsettled weather, but also many hours of rain-free weather. Pay attention because here’s how I expect it to play out! In the pre-dawn to mid morning hours, a warm front will cross the region with shower activity. Some of this can be heavy, particularly toward the South Coast where some short-lived flash flooding / street flooding can occur in heavier downpours. Embedded strong to severe thunderstorms are a slight risk with this batch. Lesser coverage of showers and storms – mainly isolated to scattered – can be expected to the north in the early morning, and the activity may linger longest South Coast / Cape Cod before heading out. A “break period” between this and the arrival of a cold front will allow for at least a few and up to several hours of rain-free weather with a mix of sun and clouds across the region from late morning into much of the afternoon, after which the aforementioned cold front will send what I think will be a broken line of showers and thunderstorms across the region from northwest to southeast from late afternoon through early evening – possibly fading in strength and coverage as it gets closer to the South Coast / Cape Cod. Initially, this area will have the chance to produce some severe storms, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. Once the front passes, the threat is gone, and we’re going to be visited by a crisp, cool Canadian air mass to start next week. In fact Monday through early Tuesday might remind you a bit of September with below normal temperatures and very low dew points. We’ll see a little temperature recovery Tuesday afternoon, and a more noticeable one by Wednesday as high pressure moves offshore while very nice weather continues.

TODAY: Abundant sunshine. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point rises through 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH – coastal sea breezes likely.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Shower and thunderstorm potential increases from southwest to northeast overnight – mainly after 2:00 a.m. – with highest chance south of I-90. Lows 62-69. Dew point rises into 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH early becoming S 5-15 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms north of I-90 and numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms to the south, may linger into late morning toward Cape Cod / South Coast. Sun / cloud mix late morning into afternoon, followed by heavier clouds and a shower / thunderstorm many areas from northwest to southeast later afternoon through early evening. Highs 80-87 except 73-80 South Coast. Dew point spikes to upper 60s to lower 70s, but starts to fall from northwest to southeast late-day. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, especially afternoon. Watch for potential variable, strong, gusty winds around any storms.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 54-61. Dew point drops below 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Dew point in 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Dew point in 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point near 50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 54-61. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 24-28)

Central US high pressure ridge and west northwest flow over our region. July 25 and 28 are the most likely “chance of a shower or thunderstorm” days with passing disturbances, otherwise a mostly dry pattern with variable temperatures with the 5-day average generally seasonable.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Basically no change from the outlook of the period that precedes this. Variable temperatures, maybe a little more tendency for cooler from Canada with 1 or 2 chances at passing showers and thunderstorms.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 18-22)

Refreshing Canadian air arrives today and hangs around into Saturday as high pressure builds into the region. Today will feature a gusty breeze ahead of the high, while lighter winds and coastal sea breezes will be with us Saturday as the high sits overhead. But by Saturday evening the high center shifts offshore as another trough and frontal system approach the region from the west northwest. This will produce a spike of higher humidity and a couple rounds of potential showers and thunderstorms between the pre-dawn and start of evening Sunday. That said, the day is also likely to feature many hours of rain-free conditions. That system will also be followed by a shot of Canadian air for the start of next week.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls to near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH morning-midday before settling.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point near 50. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear followed by clouds evening. Cloudy overnight with showers/thunderstorms arriving west to east. Lows 62-69. Dew point rises to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH evening increasing to 10-20 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy – least sun early / more sun from midday onward. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly early morning and late-day west to east. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point drops into 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 23-27)

No changes. Large scale pattern features a ridge in the middle of the US and our area in a northwest flow to its east. Much of this period will feature dry weather but a couple disturbances can bring passing showers / t-storms. Temperatures show typical variability but average close to normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Indications remain for a similar pattern during this period, overall a northwest flow, limited shower / t-storm chances, variable temperatures averaging not too far from normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)

One more day in this current stretch of heat and humidity today, but we mark a coming transition with a chance of passing showers and thunderstorms from both a weakening disturbance (late morning to mid afternoon) and a cold front (late afternoon through early evening). Despite some parameters for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms, there exists several parameters limiting such activity, so a little atmospheric struggle ensues and my forecast reflects this by just keeping it as chance of showers and storms with a fairly low risk of isolated severe thunderstorms. Nevertheless, all it takes is one, so keep an eye on the radar through evening. After the cold front goes by, the chance is by the boards, and a cooler, drier air mass arrives overnight. Friday is going to be quite different than I was thinking just a few days ago, when my forecast was for slower timing. Instead of higher humidity and showers/thunderstorms around, it’s just going to be a day of sun and passing clouds, low humidity, and seasonably warm weather – maybe a bit reminiscent of what we saw July 4. High pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday with fair, pleasant weather. A quick-moving disturbance and cold front will bring a round or two of showers and thunderstorms to the region sometime during the first 12 hours of Sunday (but probably only lasting a couple to a few hours in any given location). Timing on this will be nailed down in the next couple updates. Another Canadian air mass arrives Sunday afternoon to be with us through Monday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers / thunderstorms. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 68-75. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, otherwise partly cloudy. Fog patches especially in areas that saw rainfall.Lows 68-75 with similar dew points early then falling dew points through the 60s overnight. Wind SW to W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 83-90. Dew point falls into / through 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH mainly morning-midday.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point near 50. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear followed by clouds evening. Cloudy overnight with showers/thunderstorms arriving west to east. Lows 62-69. Dew point rises to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH evening increasing to 10-20 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy – least sun early / more sun from midday onward. Showers/thunderstorms most likely very early, then just a chance of a passing shower. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point drops into 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)

Large scale pattern features a ridge in the middle of the US and our area in a northwest flow to its east. During this 5-day period a couple passing disturbances / fronts can bring a shower or thunderstorm, otherwise dry weather dominates with variable temperatures averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)

Indications continue that the pattern changes very little heading through the end of July – northwest flow, limited shower / t-storm chances, variable temperatures averaging not too far from normal overall.