Tuesday July 29 2025 Forecast (7:59AM)

100 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Heat and humidity dominate today (peak day) into tomorrow (final day) before a change to cooler weather, along with some additional rain, before a drying trend. That’s the one-line synopsis of the next 5 days. Here are the details… You wouldn’t know it, but what used to be a cold front pushed through our region early this morning. But this front is far from its source region with a very modified air mass behind it. The only change is to shift the wind from predominantly southwest to more of a west northwest direction, and take the dew point down up to a few degrees. Hardly noticeable just walking out the door, but somewhat significant to today’s forecast. The west northwest wind will likely be strong enough to prevent any coastal sea breezes, except being a direct sea breeze where it comes across water before reaching land again (Outer Cape Cod, for example). While places in examples like that will be modified cooler, a west northwest wind is one of the hotter summer winds for our region, and that will be the case today, with the non-modified areas, a vast majority of our region, exceeding 90 for high temps. And despite the tiny dew point decline, it will still be quite humid as they even recover that mini-loss, if not during the day today, by sometime this evening. In short, a hot day. I am now reluctant to call for any isolated showers and thunderstorms today as it looks like they just don’t have the trigger to fire up. I would not be totally surprised if one did, but I think the chance is so remote that other than this discussion they don’t get included in the detailed forecast that follows it. Next up, Wednesday. The outlook for this day is a little different than I had a few days ago, when I thought the set-up and timing of things would be slightly different. It’s going to be another hot and humid day, and with the approach of a cold front we will have to watch for the development of showers and thunderstorms. I expect these to be mostly from mid afternoon into the evening, and while I am not expecting widespread coverage, there can be individual storms or small storm clusters that can be quite strong, possibly severe (primary threat being straight line wind gusts). Keep an eye out for those, also knowing that some places will end up seeing little or nothing. Places that do get hit can be impacted significantly, at least for a brief time. Temperatures are a little tricky. I think upper 80s to middle 90s is a safe bet for high temps in most of the region, with typically cooler conditions for the South Coast / Cape Cod with a “mostly” southwesterly air flow. However, the air flow at the surface is not going to be that strong, and this does allow for the possibility of the wind becoming more south to southeast along MA’s eastern coast, including Boston, which could hold the maximums down a little in those locations. The cold front moves through in the evening but doesn’t get far. It comes to a stop just to our south and southeast early Thursday, and provides a running board for a wave of low pressure set to move along it later Thursday through early Friday, producing a swath of rainfall here. Reliable guidance has been starting to paint this as a moderate to heavy rainfall event for at least a portion of the region – fine tuning to come still. Current expected timing for most rain is later Thursday to early Friday. Later Friday into Saturday, drier and cooler weather is expected.

TODAY: Clouds mainly I-90 southward early depart, otherwise sunshine. Highs 90-97 except 80s some coastal areas and some 70s Cape Cod / Islands. Dew point declines slightly from near 70 to middle 60s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Scattered to clustered showers and thunderstorms mid afternoon on, with a few strong to severe storms possible. Highs 88-95, however cooler in some coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, with a potential SE shift in eastern coastal areas. Wind can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the evening. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind shifting to NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with showers early, then a slow clearing trend. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60+. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point not far from 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

High pressure will be dominant with fair weather and typical summertime temperatures across the region for this 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

High pressure focus shifts off the Atlantic Coast heading toward mid month, with a pattern that would feature higher humidity and a slightly better chance to see some shower and thunderstorm development at times.

100 thoughts on “Tuesday July 29 2025 Forecast (7:59AM)”

    1. I think they are good for 95 or 96 today. Today’s wind direction allows the coastal plain to heat up nicely.

      1. Was afraid of that. If we can knock off a few degrees from the dew points, it would certainly help some.

        ACs cranking early today.

  7. Tomorrow will be one of those times I’ll be rooting for a miss for storms where I am. Wake is 4PM to 7PM.

    I think that the funeral on Thursday morning should be mostly before any significant rain sets in.

  9. I meant to bring up – a lot of media was painting this as a slam dunk heatwave for Boston (Logan). No.

    84 yesterday? Not day 1 of the heatwave there.
    They exceed 90 today, but they may very well not reach it tomorrow. That would be one day of 90, which is 2 days shy of a heatwave. Still, they (media) give the impression that it is one, and they need to stop pulling stuff like that. Just be honest. NEWS DIRECTORS, TAKE NOTE.

    1. So true !

      A little differentiation here solves it.

      80-90% of people in eastern Mass probably experience a heatwave, as I called up Lawrence and they hit 91F yesterday.

      Simple to say, immediate coastal areas and inland elevated areas won’t meet heat wave criteria while the majority of low elevation inland areas will hit 90F or higher 3 days in a row.

      1. We are about 6 miles from Logan’s sensors and had a really good EAST wind blowing. We made 85 and that was it.
        Still felt hot and humid, but that wind capped the temperature.
        We’lll make 90 today and likely tomorrow. We shall see.
        BUT 3 days, NOPE!!

    1. Actually I thought I saw the Euro presenting some Atlantic tropical development a little earlier on then the end of the run. I’ll have to look at it again.

      1. Quite likely.

        I have on and off wifi access from my camper 🙂

        I have it then get kicked off. Not seeing the whole run. I peaked towards the end today to see hints for a general weather pattern when we’ll be home 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

    2. There is a hint of potential truth to this projection, not in the precise details, but the more active state of the tropics. The MJO will have come around to a favorable phase for it, at least for a short while.

      As you know, I wouldn’t take those storms verbatim on the simulation, but just something to keep in mind, as SAK alluded to with his post yesterday regarding the ensembles.

      1. on Guess 5,I had to use a word that could not possibly be the solution just to gain another letter or 2. It worked as I was able to fugure it out on guess 6. NEVER had any green squares, but was able to tell the positions of 4 of the letters which allowed a solution.

        2. I did that twice. I had been finished the game by a few minutes after midnight. I gave up with two guesses after about 20 minutes and it took me close to an hour this am.

    4. I’ve taken to a new strategy.

      After guess 2 or 3, say I have 2 letters in the wrong spot.

      I sacrifice the next guess in the goal of discovering hopefully, at least another letter. I don’t necessarily worry about getting the 2 I know in the right place.

      It’s got me 4 in a row, in either 4, 5 or 6 guesses.

    5. I was lucky enough to get it in four, despite a stupid mistake. On the second guess I put a letter in the same position that was marked yellow in the first guess.

  14. Heat warning covering all Nova Scotia and Cape Breton Island the next 2 days.

    I think their humidex (heat index) calculation is different in Canada than in the US because, their forecast high can be 29C (85F) and their humidex forecast is 36/37C (96-98F) but the DP is in the mid-upper 60s.

    Now, they are acclimated to a colder, longer lasting climate than us and I observe some people up here thanking for walking into the cold supermarket on a low 80F day with low-moderate humidity, so maybe the acclimation to 85D with a 67F DP is that much harder.

    1. This coming Thursday, the forecasted high temp is 68F and it was like that last Saturday, which was chilly, so, the now warmup is much more noticeable coming out of those real cool days.

  15. TK, I just read the news now about your Mom and wanted to my extended my deepest condolences to you. My thoughts and prayers are with you.

  16. Does anyone know if Friday day is dry , I know above says showers early. I don’t want to loose overtime at the Hospital Friday if the rain lingers

  18. Thanks TK! I hope the celebration of life plans are going well as tour family makes final plans for tomorrow and Thursday – saying a prayer it stays dry by you

    1. Thank you. Right now I think we’re going to just get by the Thursday morning service before the rain starts to increase in coverage.

      The wildcard is hit-or-miss t-storm chances for the Wed evening calling hours.

  19. I am doing well, and again thanks to everybody.

    When you know certain things are coming, and you have many close people around you, it makes the time easier. Not easy, but easier.

    I’m also happy that everything we’ve had to arrange the last 2 days has been going fairly smoothly. The less scrambling you have to do, the better. Thankful for that!

    1. That’s good to hear, TK.

      It was nice to read about your mother by way of the obituary.

  23. Thanks, TK!

    Up two degrees in the last 30 minutes to 95.

    The Sox got “derechoed” in the bottom of the ninth early this morning and lost, 5-4. 162 games in a season and you can’t win them all.

    Hang in there, TK. 🙂

  26. 92F, 95F at 1pm, yikes.

    Here on the beach with a healthy breeze, it’s probably 75F which has the overhead sky 100% clear.

    I can see eastward towards the central part of Cape Breton Island, the cumulus popping where I’m guessing it’s probably 85F.

    We did pop in the co-op, the town’s supermarket and it became apparent the nice breeze was masking the increased humidity.

  28. I’ve been away from the blog for a couple of days, and I just read the unfortunate news of the passing of your Mother. I’d like to express my deepest condolences to you and your family TK.

  29. No changes with the update from the SPC for tomorrow. It still has most of SNE in a level one out of five risk for severe weather.

      1. Would love to see Boston set a new record for daily snowfall this upcoming winter. ❄️

        Yeah, like that would ever happen in our lifetime. If anything, snowfall is going in the OTHER direction with climate change. 🙁

        1. It already has happened in our lifetime, just 10 years ago. 😉

          Also, we just finished the snowiest 20 year period on record recently. The lower snow years in Boston recently are not due to climate change. They were due to a series of set-ups with multiple indices that promoted below normal snowfall. It happened in even a bigger way in the 1980s, actually late 1970s to early 1990s. That snow drought put the current one to shame.

        2. The last time Boston set a daily snowfall record was January 29, 2022, when 23.6″ fell.

          If you’re looking for vulnerable ones in the Winter:

          12/1 – 1.2″
          12/8 – 1.7″
          12/11 – 2.8″
          12/25 – 3.3″ (yes, Boston has never had more than 3.3″ on Christmas Day)
          1/5 – 3.0″
          3/17 – 3.1″
          3/25 – 0.7″

  33. TK – On Thursday do you plan on a trip to the cemetery for burial as well? Could it begin raining then?

    1. Yes, we will be going to the cemetery. Rain or no rain.
      But I do not believe it will be raining here at that time.

  36. 98.1F here in Hartford (Brainard) with a heat index of 101F. Forecast here for tomorrow is 98F again with a heat index to 103.

    Hit 92F yesterday so it’s an official 3 day heat wave.

  37. We are going to be in Jamaica in Sunday 8/10-Sunday 8/17 so I am watching the tropics very closely. Rest of the family and the friends we are going with are not as excited as me at the prospect of getting blasted by a tropical system while we are there.

    3rd straight August we have done a trip to the tropics (trying to squeeze in vacation between the end of softball season and the beginning of school). Eventually our luck is going to run out!

    1. I hope you have a terrific time. Should I feel ashamed that I laughed at your comment about others not being as excited as you??

      1. Not at all. My son would probably enjoy it as well. As long as they feed us and there is alcohol available in the minibar, we’ll be fine.

    2. The only area for tropical development lately has been in the e-Pac. You’ll see it here.

      https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=7

      As for the Atlantic, I think I saw something in the Euro late next week in mid-Atlantic. I’ll have to go back and look but it is just too far out to mean anything at all. Have a fun and safe trip!

      1. Thank you! The Euro showed potential for development later in its run as Tom noted. Some of those waves coming off Africa look a little healthier than they have been as well. Still a long ways off and just monitoring for now.

    3. We usually go every few years in summer. Best time to go. Never had an issue.

      My daughter is going to Antigua for her honeymoon in September. Keeping my fingers crossed as we’ll be in the height of the season.

  40. Tsumani Warnings for all of the Hawaiian Islands

    BULLETIN
    TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 4
    NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HONOLULU HI
    351 PM HST TUE JUL 29 2025

    TO – EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

    SUBJECT – TSUNAMI WARNING SUPPLEMENT

    A TSUNAMI WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII.

    AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

    ORIGIN TIME – 0125 PM HST 29 JUL 2025
    COORDINATES – 52.2 NORTH 160.0 EAST
    LOCATION – OFF THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA RUSSIA
    MAGNITUDE – 8.7 MOMENT

    Live coverage on TWC and Fox Weather.

    Continuing coverage from KHON-2 Honolulu:

    https://www.khon2.com/video/khon-live-event/adstzV5Nm0b4gPb9

        1. I sure understand why. Prayers for all In the quake area and in the path of what develops

        1. The Alaska quake was 4x more powerful than this one. Logarithmic increase as you move up the scale.

          1. It was 9.2 as I recall. But that’s my old memory. I don’t know how that correlates times wise. But am curious. Can you explain please. But next week is find. I had a friend who was in the shower and yikes

          2. Found this. Fascinating to be sure. Thanks Tk. Knowing very close to second hand how devastating the AK was.,,,,,dear heavens.

            An earthquake with a magnitude of 9.2 is significantly more powerful than one with a magnitude of 8.8, despite the seemingly small difference in numbers.
            Here’s why:
            Logarithmic Scale: The Moment Magnitude Scale (which has largely replaced the Richter scale) is logarithmic. This means that each whole number increase represents a tenfold increase in the measured amplitude of seismic waves, and about 32 times more energy release.
            Energy Difference: An earthquake with a magnitude of 9 releases roughly 31.6 times more energy than one with a magnitude of 8. Therefore, a 9.2 magnitude earthquake releases substantially more energy than an 8.8. For context, the 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake (9.2) was the second-largest earthquake ever recorded, surpassed only by the 9.5 earthquake in Chile in 1960. The 8.8 magnitude Biobío earthquake in Chile in 2010 killed over 500 people and destroyed over 370,000 homes.
            Damage and Intensity: Higher magnitude earthquakes result in more severe ground shaking and a greater potential for widespread destruction.
            A magnitude 8.0-8.9 earthquake is classified as a “Great” earthquake and can cause serious damage and loss of life over areas several hundred kilometers across.
            A magnitude 9 earthquake is a “Rare Great” earthquake capable of causing major damage over a region more than 1000 km across.
            Real-World Examples:
            The 1964 Great Alaska Earthquake (9.2) caused widespread destruction and triggered a massive tsunami that impacted coastal communities as far south as California. It caused an estimated $2.3 billion in damages (in 2013 dollars) and resulted in 139 deaths, primarily from the tsunami.
            The recent 8.8 magnitude earthquake near Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula triggered tsunami warnings across the Pacific, including Hawaii, Alaska, and the US West Coast. Tsunamis of up to 4 meters (13 feet) were recorded in the Kamchatka Peninsula. Initial reports indicated damage to buildings and power outages in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, but no serious injuries.
            In summary, a 9.2 magnitude earthquake would be significantly more devastating than an 8.8, releasing much more energy and causing more intense shaking over a larger area.

  41. From Pete

    Tonight’s 8.8 mag earthquake in Kamchatka, Russia is tied for 6th strongest in recorded history. It was even picked up by the seismograph at Weston Observatory.

  42. The people standing at water’s edge at Waikiki Beach are the ultimate definition of stupid. And the people who have their children there playing in the water take it to the next level.

  43. Record for Boston, because of the NW wind and drying out of the air.

    No record for Worcester.

    Overall it was not one of the outstanding “hot days”. June 24 was more significant by far. This one was more ordinary, despite media hype. Again, just leaving out the sensationalism and telling the true story here. Summertime in New England. It gets hot sometimes.

    Good news: T-storm threat has diminished for Wednesday. Best shot is south of I-90, particularly southern CT / RI.

    More good news: Thursday/Friday rain event looks less of a flood threat.

    1. No records being broken here, needless to say: 63F and mostly cloudy. Fine with me. By traveling here I’ve basically extended autumn by a month on the front-end.

  45. According to readings, the third wave looks to be the highest of the Tsunami waves unless I am reading it wrong. The fact that sea levels rose above 6 feet at Midway had more concern for larger waves than predicted but seems like the waves are smaller than anticipated. One thing for sure is that Coastal Russia, Japanese islands got hit rather good with the waves.

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