Monday July 28 2025 Forecast (7:26AM)

58 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Temperature and dew point had a meeting in many areas overnight. The result: fog. If you are enshrouded in your area early this morning, it won’t last too long, but it can be dense in some locations, limiting visibility. Otherwise, high pressure moves offshore today and anchors itself there into Wednesday. This results in a bout of hotter, humid weather for our region. A cold front approaches later Wednesday. While today will have no showers and storms, tomorrow a few air mass storms could pop up during the afternoon, and Wednesday we’ll have to watch for front-triggered showers and storms afternoon and evening. Thursday and Friday are set feature a cooling trend, but the question to be answered at this point is whether we see mostly dry weather, or additional unsettled weather. The front moving through late Wednesday is likely to come to a halt just to our south by early Thursday, and a wave of low pressure is likely to ride along it. The exact position of the front, timing and strength of the wave will determine how much additional cloud cover and wet weather end up occurring Thursday and/or Friday. My best shot at this prognostication sits below in the detailed forecast, but will likely need to be tweaked and fine-tuned as this week goes on.

TODAY: Foggy areas early to mid morning, otherwise hazy sun with smoke aloft. Highs 85-92, however cooler in some coastal areas, especially Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. High altitude smoke diminishes / patchy fog develops. Lows 65-72, warmest urban areas. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind S to SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon, mainly west of I-95. Highs 89-96, cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point near 70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered to clustered afternoon / evening showers / thunderstorms. Highs 88-95, except cooler South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the evening. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind shifting to NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with showers early, then a slow clearing trend. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60+. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

Indications are that high pressure takes over and remains in control with dry weather for this 5-day stretch, which starts out slightly cooler than average then develops a slow warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

Fair weather holds early in the period. A couple disturbances from the west bring shower and thunderstorm chances by mid to late period. Generally seasonably warm temperatures are expected for this stretch of time.

58 thoughts on “Monday July 28 2025 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  3. Thank you, TK. I’m thinking of you this morning and sending hugs. I know How important normalcy is; but please know that if you need to take a day or days away from here that we understand completely ❤️

    1. Agree, the blog doesn’t matter at this time. Take your time and be with your family.

      1. Writing early in the morning before anybody else is up is very helpful for me – always has been, even if it’s just the blog. 🙂

        I’m doing ok – promise!

        1. I can relate to this.

          The weather in general and your blog TK have been an interest and place I can come to let my mind be for even a little bit.

  7. Thank you TK. My thoughts are with you today as I know you have some tough tasks on your plate.

  9. The setup for the end of the week is very interesting, and very similar to our “will it or won’t it” situations in the winter. On one hand we have models like the GFS/CMC which keep most of the rain south of New England, with less than 0.1″ north of the Mass Pike. On the other hand, we have the ECMWF/UKMET/ICON which all have widespread 3-6″ of rain which doesn’t end until late Friday or early Saturday, mainly south of the Pike.

    I do find it very interesting that it appears to be a battle between the models from North America and Europe. A weather version of the Ryder Cup!

    1. Well said.

      And can we trust the GFS??? and you always said the CMC sucked! So there you have it.

    1. Me too!

      My last four guesses all had the same result:
      Green-Green-Wrong-Wrong-Green

        1. Thanks. I wanted it before 5 guesses very badly. Just wouldn’t go. I guess I was fortunate to get it in 5 today.
          I’ll take what I can.

  15. There’s so much confusion between the temperature and the “feels like” temperature that this forecast is worse than useless. At one point the national map is titled “current temperatures” and he says “feels like” several times while pointing at the map.

    Later on there’s a map titled “heat index forecast” for Tuesday at 2 PM. For Boston, it has 91. But the 7-day at the end has Boston’s high at 95 (actual, I imagine) on Tuesday. Maybe this high will be at a time not near 2PM. But no matter what, this is very confusing because of all the “feels like” nonsense.

    It could be just that the heat is getting to me. 🙂

    https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/video/next-weather-wbz-midday-forecast-for-july-28-2025/

    1. Yikes. I’m pretty good at following a forecast. On this I had to keep rewinding. Way too many fast graphics; and as you said, there are contradictory numbers.

      I’d say write Eric and ask him, but I’ve seen some of his replies to folks on Twitter. He can be prickly.

      And this could be a new corporate edict.

      2. They do it all the time and when it happens I SCREAM at the TV and call the met every SWEAR WORD in the book!!!
        Lucky the men in white coats don’t come for me. I can’t stand that SHIT!! and it is UNPROFESSIONAL!!!!!!!
        It DRIVES me CRAZY!!!!!

  16. TK, I am so sorry to hear about your Mom’s passing. May her memory be a blessing.

  17. Thank you, TK, for the forecast.

    Please take care while you and your family mourn the loss of your mother.

  18. I am in sunny England. A comfortable 59F upon arrival this morning. Temp reached 74F in this part of North London today. All in all, it feels like Boston in September. I count my blessings that I am healthy and can still travel to a place like London to see my daughter and avoid high heat and humidity for a bit. I am very lucky in this regard.

  19. 85 here with dp 69 and a decent EAST WIND!!! Still feels HOT!!! and sultry. The EAST wind has prevented it from reaching 90 here, but other than that NOT much effect.

    It’s 90+ ALL over the place inland.

    What the bleep will it be tomorrow. That is my fear, mid to upper 90s with dp in the 70s!!!!!

  20. Thank you again to everybody!

    SAK, I love the Ryder Cup reference .. haha

    2. I read three times. With smiles through my tears each time. Brian, what a beautiful and moving tribute to your mom. I met your mom Just one time at Mac’s celebration of life. But that was all it took for my heart to melt. A dear friend said something about Mac’s mom….Also called Jean….and I’ve never forgotten. I think the same for your mom. She didn’t die. She lived. What a wonderfully full life your mom had. She will live in the hearts of her family forever. ❤️

  22. Are the ensembles still coming into agreement for possible August tropical development along the East Coast?

    Also, cnn.com is reporting a derecho will be forming in the upper Midwest. Any truth?

    1. The AI version of the Euro Ensemble still insists on it, but the regular Euro Ensemble has backed off.

  24. I may have the answer to my own question about the derecho. I am watching the Red Sox game from Minnesota and they just mentioned that they are anticpating possible 80 mph winds in the next hour. The game is tied in the ninth.

    https://www.weather.gov/mpx/

  26. Models are starting to come together on the heavy rain threat Thursday into early Friday. Most of them are now focusing on the area between the Mass Pike and the Lakes Region for the heaviest rain, extending southwestward into Western MA, Northern CT, Southeastern NY, and Northeastern PA. The GFS is still an outlier, but there’s plenty of time for things to change.

  27. TK, hadn’t looked at the blog since yesterday am and was so sorry to read the post about your mom. That was a beautiful obituary and she seemed like a remarkable woman. My thoughts are with you this week. May she rest in peace.

  28. I noticed Julie is in London, too. How many other WHW folks are in London at the moment? I know that JMA makes frequent visits to Britain.

    It’s a delightful 67F outside at 11:45am. I can breathe again. I have energy and no nausea. I do NOT miss the heat and humidity. I’m even happy the sun isn’t out.

    1. I saw you wrote “Julie in London” and my brain immediately skipped the “in” and saw “Julie London”, as in the singer and actress who had a beautiful voice, was in many films and TV shows, including playing Nurse Dixie McCall in the 1970s TV series, “Emergency!” 🙂

  29. Thank you again to all who have written about my mom’s passing. I appreciate all of you.

    New post is up…

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