DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

On this final day of meteorological summer, we get a fall preview – a fresh Canadian airmass delivered by northerly breeze, but still a very nice day as we’ll have plenty of sun, though that sun will be filtered at times by high cloudiness across southern areas, which is actually the northern edge of the cloud shield from Idalia, which made landfall yesterday as a powerful hurricane in northwestern Florida and is now a TS moving off the coastal Carolinas. This system will stay safely south of our region through the coming weekend. But back to today – the gusty breeze that starts the day will settle down with time, but the high temperatures will generally be a few degrees below the normals for the date, and the dew point will be quite low in comparison to the last few days, so you’ll get that hint of autumn air. The first 4 days of September will be governed by high pressure with fair weather. High pressure will still be centered to our west on Friday with still some northerly component to the air flow, and then a more west to southwest flow will develop over the Labor Day Weekend as the high shifts slightly and slowly to the south. That old frontal boundary that I spoke of as a potential shower threat for Sunday will still be “there” in a sense, but the trend on the guidance has been to remove the shower threat, and consistently enough that I will pull it from the forecast, with just some patchy clouds being the result of the dissipating boundary Saturday night and/or Sunday. So the summer season, as defined as the time period running from Memorial Day Weekend to Labor Day Weekend, ends up book-ended by 2 spectacular holiday weekends with hardly any of that type of weather in between. The only caution to toss out there is the heavy surf, large swells, and enhanced rip currents along the coast from distant passing Hurricane Franklin, which basically peaks today then diminishes as we head toward and into the weekend. But the diminishment will be gradual, so anybody with coastal/beach plans should be aware of this.

TODAY: High clouds to the south, otherwise sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point falling through 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing later.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point near 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog in lowest elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 55. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

High pressure will sit offshore with fair, more humid, and very warm weather September 5-6, before a frontal boundary moves in with showery weather September 7. A little more uncertain later in the period as to whether or not that front pushes away and Canadian high pressure brings drier weather, or the unsettled weather hangs on for a while longer. Will re-visit and refine this outlook with each update.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Previous outlooks for the medium range period have indicated a generally northwesterly upper air flow and fair, mild to warm weather, and this is still the general idea overall, but the trend on some reliable guidance places low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north, which can be a sign of unsettled weather sneaking back in if the low pressure to the south is close enough to exert more influence on the region. Just watching that change while I don’t really change the overall outlook from the current mostly fair and mild to warm status.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

We start today out humid, overcast, foggy in some areas, with drizzle and scattered showers, even a few downpours. A band of rain and embedded thunderstorms located in southern VT, far western MA, and eastern NY as of 7 a.m. represents a frontal boundary that will push eastward, with the rain and thunderstorms sweeping through the WHW forecast area from west to east later this morning into the early portion of the afternoon, exiting the main eastern shore (NH Seacoast to MA South Coast) by 2 or 3 p.m., of course taking longest to get by Cape Cod, which may miss the widest rain area but still experience some scattered showers/storms until late afternoon. The exit of this front represents the end of a long weather pattern of frequent shower/rain episodes, as we will enter a long stretch of generally dry weather starting tonight and lasting into (and likely through) the upcoming Labor Day Weekend. I have been watching in the medium range the possibility of an old frontal boundary sliding into the region and maybe triggering an isolated shower or thunderstorm around the middle of the weekend, while this possibility will still be there (Sunday), it’s a very low chance and may end up non-existent by the time we actually get there. For now it sits in the forecast, but don’t let it alter your weekend plans other than just keeping the remote chance in the back of your mind. We will have comfortably dry and slightly cooler than normal air around for the final day of August on Thursday, followed by a gradual warming trend as we head through the first 4 days of September from Friday through Monday. Humidity levels will start to come up as we get deeper into the weekend, but they will remain below really uncomfortable levels. Once again a reminder that offshore Hurricane Franklin while passing well to our southeast and east will create large swells and rough surf from today to about Friday. Combined with higher super moon tides, this can enhance coastal flooding, in addition to the higher rip current risk and rough conditions at beaches and in coastal waters. Use caution / be aware.

TODAY: Overcast through midday / early afternoon with areas of fog, drizzle, and isolated to scattered showers, some with brief downpours, then an area of widespread showers and thunderstorms moving through from west to east, but may be numerous to scattered closer to the South Coast. Clearing trend west to east early afternoon on, but clouds lingering until late afternoon Cape Cod where still some scattered showers can occur. Highs 70-77. Dew point around 70, falling to around 60 by late in the day. Wind S up to 10 MPH shifting to W, increasing to 5-15 MPH by late day.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point near 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog in lowest elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 55. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

High pressure slides offshore with a more humid set-up, eventually a chance of showers as a frontal boundary moves into the region around mid period, with temperatures rising to above normal for a few days before Canadian high pressure brings a push of cooler/drier air to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

The general idea continues to be for a west northwest flow here with limited rain and near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

A frontal boundary and trough in the area will produce unsettled weather today and Wednesday. Showers will hang out near the South Coast initially, then make a push northward in a couple waves later today through the first half of Wednesday before getting pushed to the east and offshore later Wednesday. After that, high pressure builds in Thursday to end August on a fair and nice note, and the high pressure area will continue to keep us fair and nice into the first couple of days of September including the start of the Labor Day Weekend. Meanwhile, watched for increased surf and swells along the coast due to Hurricane Franklin passing between the US East Coast and Bermuda (closer to Bermuda) the next couple days as it curves well out to sea. This, combined with the full super moon will create areas of coastal flooding, even without the storm close by.

TODAY: Heaviest clouds south and east, some sun north and west, eventually clouds advance back to the north. Showers near Cape Cod eventually moving northward into southeastern and eastern MA by evening. Highs 71-78. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely including a chance of thunderstorms until mid afternoon, then clearing. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s, falling to 50s late. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point near 50. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

High pressure should continue to be in control through Labor Day Weekend although an old frontal boundary in the region on September 3 may create some clouds and just the slightest chance of an isolated shower as it stands now. A more humid set-up and slightly better shower chance comes later in the period. We’ll also have to watch moisture associated with Idalia to our south heading through the first week of September, in case it ends up getting pulled further north.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

The general idea is a west northwest flow here with limited rain and near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

High pressure sits over the region this morning, but that doesn’t mean 100% blue sky. In fact, many areas are socked in with low clouds and fog with just a few areas seeing blue sky above to start the day. Eventually the stratus/fog will burn away, probably lastly over the Cape Cod area, and while this happens and sun starts to take over, it will end up filtered by a shield of high clouds advancing northward into the region as it streams west to east. More of these will take over, along with some mid level clouds as well, later in the day, limiting what sun we do end up with. Tonight, clouds thicken up ahead of a trough and frontal boundary, which is going to give us up to a few rounds of showers into midweek. Initially, a few showers/downpours may fire up in the higher elevations of southwestern New England later today and a few of these may survive enough to clip southwestern NH prior to or around sunset today, otherwise we’re looking at a band of showers and possible downpours advancing northward into the South Coast region during the late morning and midday hours of Tuesday, probably getting as far north and west as the I-95 belt in southeastern NH and the I-495 belt in northeastern to east central MA, while northwest of there any activity will be more limited. When the initial batch lifts away we can see one or two more batches of showers/downpours traverse the region from southwest to northeast between Tuesday evening and early Wednesday afternoon. Atmospheric conditions are not super-conducive to thunderstorms with these, but I cannot completely rule out an embedded storm or two in any batch of showers. Based on current expecting timing, this unsettled weather will pull offshore Wednesday afternoon as the trough and front swing through and exit the region, then drier air will arrive for Wednesday night through Thursday as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. From there, the high will expand eastward with fair and dry weather expected Friday. Regarding the tropics, while active with 2 storms, the impact on our region will be limited to rough surf and large swells along the coast over the next several days, mainly from Hurricane Franklin, which will be quite strong as it makes a recurve track between the US East Coast and Bermuda – closer to Bermuda. Tropical Storm Idalia, forecast to become a hurricane as it moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to make landfall on the FL Panhandle at midweek then moves across the US Southeast Coast region and will not be a factor in our weather during this 5-day period.

TODAY: Areas of fog, some dense, and low clouds, gradually dissipating. Sunshine and high clouds, with sun becoming more limited late in the day. A few heavier clouds with an isolated shower or two possible southwestern NH and adjacent north central MA late afternoon and/or early evening. Highs 72-79. Dew point around 60. Wind calm, then S-SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Fog patches forming. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Showers likely mainly midday on with a slight chance of thunderstorms, favoring eastern CT, RI, eastern MA, and the NH Seacoast. Highs 71-78. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms until early afternoon, then clearing. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s, falling to 50s late. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point near 50. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

Labor Day Weekend’s weather should be governed by a high pressure area over the region with fair weather and a warming trend, with a slow increase in humidity. One old, washing-out frontal boundary moving into the region about September 3 may trigger a couple showers and thunderstorms, but it looks like a pretty decent 3-day stretch of weather otherwise. Weather systems should remain weak and we’ll stay on the warmer and slightly humid side into the middle of next week with limited rain chances. For now, I expect the high pressure area over the region to shunt Idalia to our south, off the US Southeast and/or Mid Atlantic Coast, but any change in the track of that system over the next couple days can change the medium range results, so we’ll have to keep an eye on it just in case.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

The overall expectation is that we’ll be governed by a northeastward extension of what’s left of the hot high pressure ridge in the middle USA, so we’ll have limited rain chances and warmer than average temperatures here.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 27-31)

The final 5 days of meteorological summer, like much of the summer has been, will lack heat but not lack an unsettled weather pattern. While we’ll be in for plenty of rain-free weather, we do have to talk about at least some form of shower chance on 4 out of the 5 days in this forecast period. It starts with today’s possibility of pop up showers due to the combination of a northeasterly air flow, some low level moisture, and a disturbance at mid levels drifting through from northwest to southeast. As the sun came up, we see a variety of conditions from stratus and patchy fog over parts of the South Shore to Cape Cod, broken mid level clouds across northern MA and southern NH, and more sun to the south of there. This variable sky coverage will continue, but with a tendency for clouds to become the dominant feature, limiting sun today. Showers are already ongoing with the approach of the mid level disturbance across southeastern NH, and this initial batch will fade and head southeastward through northeastern MA this morning. Additional isolated to scattered showers can pop up anywhere during the day, but will favor southwestern NH through central MA with the help of some upslope conditions – northeast wind being lifted by the higher terrain. Today will also be a cooler and less humid day than yesterday was. High pressure builds in tonight and Monday, eliminating any shower threat and obliterating most cloud cover, however some low elevation fog patches can form due tonight to radiational cooling allowing the temp to fall to near dew point levels. Any fog patches will dissipate early Monday as the temperature climbs away from the dew point and we have a fairly nice day, a little milder than today in general but still temperatures running on the cooler side of normal with highs well under 80. Dew points will be modest – not too dry / not too muggy. The coast will feel coolest with a light east to southeast wind evolving during the day. We may start to see more cloudiness moving into the region by evening, especially near the South Coast / south of I-90, in response to a trough and frontal boundary approaching from the west and with the help of a more southerly air flow developing ahead of this. This trough and front is going to bring us higher humidity and more unsettled weather again Tuesday into Wednesday, with my current thinking that the greatest shower threat will come in about a 24 hour period from noon Tuesday to noon Wednesday, including the chance of downpours and a low chance of thunderstorms. So as we remain vulnerable to flash flooding from heavier rain, we’ll have to keep an eye on it. Meanwhile, forecast Hurricane Franklin’s track will be between Bermuda and the US East Coast (a little closer to the former than the latter), and while it won’t really be a direct player in our forecast, it will send larger swells and rougher surf to our coastline, making it more risky to boat in the coastal waters or be in the water at the beach. Rip current risks will peak at midweek as the storm makes its closest pass before heading away into the North Atlantic. Once we rid ourselves of the trough and front on Wednesday, high pressure builds in for a nice final day of meteorological summer on Thursday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers, favoring southeastern NH and northeastern MA through mid morning, and favoring southwestern NH and central MA this afternoon. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lower elevation fog patches developing. Lows 57-64. Dew point upper 50s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny except becoming variably cloudy South Coast. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind calm early, then E-SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Fog patches forming. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Showers likely mainly midday on with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely until midday, then clearing. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s, falling to 50s late. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

This is basically the extended Labor Day Weekend outlook from Friday through Tuesday, and I’m cautiously optimistic that most of it will be nice, governed in general by high pressure which will be over the region to start, then more to the south of the region mid period, and east of the region later in the period. This pattern promotes mostly rain-free conditions, starting with low humidity and seasonable temperatures then a slight trend for warmer and more humid weather with time. Things that can “go wrong” are not out of the picture, but are low risk chances, The first is an old trough / front sliding down from Canada sometime around September 2 or 3 that could trigger a few showers. This system would likely have limited moisture to work with and not be a significant rain producer. The other wildcard is the moisture associated with current TD 10 which is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm then hurricane as it moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and makes landfall around the FL Peninsula early next week. Generally, the medium range guidance has a decent depiction of the pattern, and the overall idea is to keep this moisture shunted south of our region, but we’ve seen in the past the moisture from these make its way further north than guidance suggests, so given past history and the proximity to our region on some of the guidance, it’s worth keeping a close eye on. We will also need to watch the very end of this period (September 5), for a stronger frontal system approaching via the Great Lakes / eastern Canada. But even with all that I’ve explained and described here, the current outlook for the Labor Day Weekend (September 2-4) is mostly favorable for generally nice weather.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

A quick glance at ensemble guidance tells me not to make any changes and keep the outlook somewhat vague here with higher humidity and a shower threat early in the period, a dry interlude mid period, and more unsettled weather late period. Temperatures should exhibit day to day variation, but may average above normal for the period overall.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 26-30)

While far from perfection as defined by many, this final weekend of August will feature improved weather over yesterday’s. A cold front is now over southeastern MA and will continue to slowly drift offshore today. If you’re an early riser and reading this just after I post it, a couple downpours are still near Cape Ann and a few showers are scattered across Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod,and with the front still in these areas, especially Cape Cod / South Coast, into midday, there can still be a few more showers here this morning. This is one of those instances that behind the “cold front” it will warm up more than yesterday, due to the loss of heavy overcast and broad scale onshore wind, as a light wind will become more westerly behind the front. This provides a little bit of down sloping and also brings in air that did not pass over ocean water for most areas, except a few points along the irregular coastline. We’ll need to wait for a secondary trough to pass by tonight to bring in drier air, so today’s air will still be on the humid side. This, combined with the sun’s heat, and the approach of the secondary trough can trigger a few isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm over southern NH and central MA this afternoon, and these will fade as they drift southeastward by evening. Tonight, drier air will settle in on a northerly breeze. High pressure to our north will turn the wind a bit more northeasterly on Sunday, which will be a cooler and less humid day than today, and another disturbance drifting through at mid and upper levels will help trigger some additional clouds and perhaps a few isolated showers, but for the most part we are looking at a comfortable, mostly rain-free day. High pressure brings fair weather to all of the region on Monday, but a trough to our south will bring some clouds into southern areas, especially during the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, Franklin, forecast to be a category 1 hurricane, will be moving northward, passing between Bermuda and the US East Coast by later Monday, then turning northeastward and staying at sea, but this system will be bringing increased surf and swells to the coastline from the early to middle portion of next week. The aforementioned trough to the south will be picked up by an approaching one from the west, and while this combination will play a part in keeping Franklin well offshore, it will also bring us another bout of unsettled weather. The current expecting timing of the greatest threat of showers from this system is the second half of Tuesday through the first half of Wednesday, but this is not set in stone just yet, so watch for updates.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated showers/downpours near Cape Ann and a few showers near Cape Cod early, then an additional shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast favoring Cape Cod mid morning to mid afternoon, and isolated thunderstorms possible in southern NH and central MA mid to late afternoon, diminishing while drifting southeast by evening. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Dew point 50s. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny except becoming variably cloudy South Coast. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Dew point 50s. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds return. Shower chance increases. Highs 72-79. Dew point climbs to 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Shower chance greatest morning, clouds decrease later. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60+ morning, falling below 60 later. Wind variable becoming NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 31– SEPTEMBER 4)

High pressure is expected to be in control of the weather for most of this period, starting with low humidity then with a gradual increase in warmth and humidity with time. A weakening surface trough or remains of a frontal boundary may bring a more more clouds to the region and only the remote chance of a shower about the middle of the period, otherwise this looks like a mainly dry stretch.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

Higher humidity and eventual shower chances as a trough approaches and moves in from west to east, favoring early to mid period.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 25-29)

When I made the comment that summers containing an unsettled June and July are often followed by a splendid August and September, I was worried that I might have to eat those words. Well, I’ve had to snack on them a few times as we never have really broken out of the unsettled pattern during the month of August either. Although we have had some nice days in there, and before the month is done, we will enjoy a few more. Despite that, we still have unsettled weather to endure, including and especially today (and maybe again before the end of the 5-day period). Focusing on today’s event first, the clouds that were slow to move in yesterday in advance of this system finally did so and thickened up overnight with the first warm frontal showers arriving mid to late evening. Since then the area has seen fairly widespread shower activity which will continue for much of the day today. The most persistent shower activity will occur in the eastern half of the WHW forecast area, basically I-495 belt east. Original optimism I had about longer rain-free periods for this region this afternoon has faded and it looks like it will be a pretty wet day overall, though areas to the west will still get a break in the activity more often as we head through the day. The warm front that approaches never really gets through here at all, so a broad onshore component to the wind flow will keep it on the cool side today despite the high humidity. While a couple of embedded thunderstorms can occur in these rounds of showers today and this evening, the parameters for strong to severe storms will not line up, so we won’t be needing to worry about tracking any of that. The region will receive a general 1 to 2 inches of rainfall from this event, with a few locations favoring southeastern MA possibly exceeding the 2 inch mark. A positive aspect of this is that flooding will be limited due to the more drawn-out timeline of heavier rainfall as opposed to having it all fall over a few hour’s time. The ground is already wet and the water tables are high, so it doesn’t take much to return to flooding status especially in prone areas. This system will not be in a hurry to exit tonight with the shower and isolated thunderstorm threat continuing into the overnight hours, but shifting to favor the I-95 belt eastward. There is somewhat better news for the weekend. While we’re not going to have a perfect summer weekend, the final one of August will feature OK weather. Dew points will remain fairly high Saturday with a slow drop-off from west to east as a frontal boundary pushes through. This front can still help to trigger isolated showers with thunderstorms a little more possible than today due to better heating and instability, but it’s not a set-up for widespread activity. If you have outdoor plans Saturday, just keep an eye on the sky and/or radar and have a plan in place just in case. For many of us, these plans will not be needed. Saturday evening, drier air finally makes its way in from the north, and on Sunday we’ll experience a cooler day with lower dew points, but the combination of a more northeasterly air flow and a weak disturbance aloft will create some additional clouds, and I cannot rule out a couple isolated pop up showers. Again though, this is nothing worth cancelling outdoor plans over. High pressure builds over the region with fair and comfortable weather Monday. Things begin to change again on Tuesday as the high slips away to the northeast and a trough approaches from the west. At the same time, western Atlantic tropical cyclone activity (forecast Hurricane Franklin) is expected to be occurring. The trough approaching is fully expected to help keep that system well offshore, but it will be close enough that increased ocean swells / surf and enhanced rip current risk takes place early next week. Keep this in mind if you have plans that include being at the coast. What I am not sure of yet is the timing of any rainfall threat associated with the approaching trough. Yesterday, my thought process was a wet Tuesday, but medium range guidance has slowed this system enough to make me lean toward a later arrival at this point, but will continue to monitor and refine the timing. For now, just anticipate that Tuesday won’t be as nice as Monday.

TODAY: Patchy fog early. Cloudy with widespread to numerous showers this morning, numerous to scattered showers this afternoon, including the slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 65-72. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Patchy fog early. Isolated midday and afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 60s through midday, lowering slowly thereafter. Wind S to SW increasing to 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW from west to east during the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling into 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Dew point 50s. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point 50s. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds return. Shower chance increases. Highs 72-79. Dew point climbs to 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

A trough moving through the region brings the chance of showers at least into August 30 (timing uncertain) before high pressure builds in for fair weather to end the month and start September.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

Higher humidity and eventual shower chances as a trough approaches and moves in from west to east, favoring mid period.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 24-28)

While a high pressure ridge continues to bottle the late summer heat up in the middle of the US, a trough of low pressure will drop out of Canada and enter the Northeast via the Great Lakes during the next couple of days. Surface low pressure associated with this feature will send its warm front our way, which will increase the clouds from west to east during today. Rainfall associated with this front will hold off until later this evening and overnight, arriving from west to east, with the most widespread activity good up until about midday Friday. This will then push off to the east and while the front attempts to lift through the region, but may not make it all the way through before low pressure from the west drags the boundary back to the south and southeast Friday night into Saturday. A couple more showers and possibly a thunderstorm can take place during this process, and one disturbance can cause a more widespread shower batch during the early morning hours Saturday before this exits to the east around daybreak. Saturday will be a transition day as that system slowly moves away and high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. We’ll end up in a northerly air flow between the two with a surface drying trend, while chilly air alot keeps it unstable enough that we can see a few pop up showers later in the day. I do think this activity will be limited, however, with no need to cancel any Saturday outdoor plans. Just add the priority of monitoring the radar for whatever location you will be in and have a plan in case you’re interrupted. Again, most won’t have to deal with this. High pressure edges eastward from the Great Lakes into New England during the course of Sunday with fair and comfortably dry weather, and the high hangs on into if not through Monday with fair weather continuing. We may see some clouds making a comeback later Monday in response to the approach of the next unsettled weather system. This will be another trough that drops into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley as the high pressure ridge in the central US retrogrades into the western Plains and Rockies by the start of next week…

TODAY: Any early morning low elevation fog will dissipate by mid morning. Sunshine gives way to clouds from west to east during the course of the day. Highs 73-80. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog forming. Showers arriving west to east. Lows 61-68. Dew point climbs over 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog until mid morning. Widespread showers until midday. Scattered to isolated showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms midday on. Highs 71-78. Dew point peaking middle to upper 60s. Wind SE-S north of I-90, S-SW south of I-90, generally 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog redevelop. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, with a more widespread shower area possibly moving through from west to east just before dawn. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early morning clouds, areas of fog, and maybe a lingering shower especially eastern coastal areas, favoring Cape Cod, then clouds break for sun with a slight chance of isolated showers midday-afternoon. Highs 70-77. Dew point hovers 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, becoming N and increasing to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling into 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine may give way to some clouds by later in the day. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

August 29 is vulnerable to higher humidity and showery weather as a trough of low pressure moves through the region, based on current timing. The same trough would help keep forecast Hurricane Franklin well offshore between the US East Coast and Bermuda as it starts to accelerate northeast. An offshore system like that does send higher ocean swells and surf into the coastline though, so be aware of that if you have beach and/or boating plans, and this may start as early as Monday and linger through the middle of next week. Looking for a return to dry weather heading through midweek as the trough pulls away and another dry, cool airmass arrives August 30, then modifies as high pressure builds overhead and south of the region from the final day of August into the first couple days of September.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

The large scale pattern will feature a flatter overall flow, but still high pressure ridging in the Rockies and western Plains while a trough has taken up residence in the Midwest with more high pressure off the US East Coast. This allows surface high pressure to potentially maintain control through the Labor Day Weekend with a gradual increase in warmth and humidity. Eventually the trough from the west increases our unsettled weather chances but may not occur until later in this period.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 23-27)

The big picture pattern continues to feature a low pressure trough in eastern Canada with another one set to drop in and take its place, but a little further west, as we head into late week, while a ridge of high pressure keep summer heat bottled up over the central US. For us, we get high pressure and pleasant weather today before the high slips offshore and the disturbance associated with the new trough approaches on Thursday, sending clouds our way. Thursday will still be a fairly nice day through as the wet weather threat will hold off likely until the nighttime hours. A warm front will try crossing the region overnight / Friday morning with showers and higher humidity. I’m not sure this front makes it all the way through, and while we wait for a wave of low pressure to move by, expect additional showers and possible thunderstorms at times into Friday evening. This will all push offshore by early Saturday, but we still have another disturbance to wait on passing by our region, so Saturday itself will still feature the chance of a few showers around the area. I’m optimistic the coverage won’t be widespread though, however I do expect a cooler than normal day. Sunday will also feature below normal temperatures, but with much more sun and absent of a shower threat as high pressure moves in.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lower elevation fog patches again. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely. Areas of fog forming. Lows 60-67. Dew point rising over 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH but may stay SE or E in areas mostly north of I-90.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60 or lower. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point 55 or lower. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

General northwesterly upper level air flow expected during the home stretch of August with surface high pressure in control much of the time. Exception about mid period with a disturbance and shower threat possible. Watch for rough surf / large swells along the coast due to well-offshore tropical activity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

General west to northwest upper air flow with high pressure ridge to the west and trough in eastern Canada, some day to day temperatures variability and a couple shower episodes possible heading through the Labor Day Weekend and just beyond. Much fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 22-26)

The large scale pattern features a trough over eastern Canada and a large high pressure ridge over the central US, with our region in a northwesterly air flow between the two. This continues through midweek before pattern retrogression later this week backs the trough up into the US Northeast. What this means is that we’ll have a couple of pleasant and dry days today and tomorrow, then a turn to unsettled weather later Thursday through Friday. A nudge eastward of things again should bring improvement by the weekend, but it may be shaky improvement, not completely free of a shower chance on Saturday. There is no significant heat in the forecast. All of that will remain bottled up over the central US, and if anything will expand westward during the retrograding portion of the upcoming pattern.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lowest elevations. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lower elevation fog patches again. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely. Areas of fog forming. Lows 60-67. Dew point rising over 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH but may stay SE or E in areas mostly north of I-90.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers, especially in the morning. Highs 70-77. Dew point under 60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 27-31)

General northwesterly upper level air flow expected during the home stretch of August with surface high pressure in control much of the time. Watch for rough surf / large swells along the coast due to well-offshore tropical activity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

A slightly less amplified pattern, still with the mean ridge in the central US and a trough in eastern Canada much of the time. For our region this is a zonal flow pattern with a couple disturbances bringing brief shower threats. Temperatures are variable but lean to the cooler side of normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)

The last full week of August begins with a warm and more humid day as a cold front approaches. This front’s approach will be heralded by a lot of clouds and partial sun, but only the chance of a passing shower later in the afternoon to early this evening from northwest to southeast across the area. Behind the front comes a push of cooler, drier air from Canada into midweek, with an area of high pressure moving in through Wednesday. High pressure slips offshore by Thursday and a warm front will approach from the west as another low pressure area moves into the Great Lakes. This front will bring a batch of showers to the region Thursday night into early Friday, and after its passage we’ll have a slug of humid air Friday until the cold front trailing the low pushes through the region that evening. Showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the cold front’s approach and passage later Friday.

TODAY: Cloud / sun intervals. A late-day shower possible. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the early evening, then clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lower elevation fog patches possible. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely. Areas of fog forming. Lows 60-67. Dew point rising over 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)

A shower chance may be present to start the weekend early on August 26, otherwise the trend is drier with below normal temperatures for August 26-27. High pressure should sit over our area early to mid portion of next week with fair weather and a gradual warming trend. Watch for increasing surf and swells along the coast by the middle of next week due to far offshore tropical cyclone activity.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

High pressure shifting offshore allows temperatures to average closer to or even a little above normal for a day or 2, but with a couple disturbances moving into and across the region, opportunities for showers are also going to be present at times. Not looking for a very wet pattern through as this period of time will be highly scrutinized for Labor Day Weekend plans.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)

Into late August we go with some nice weather finally outweighing unsettled weather, at least for a stretch of days, and a continuation of the lack of heat with a cool northwesterly air flow being dominant overall. However, we do start the period with a 2-day warm-up today and Monday. Yesterday being as cool as it was with a lot of clouds, it won’t be hard to warm up today with much more sun and a land breeze. Humidity stays low. That humidity will start to increase tonight into Monday ahead of an approaching cold front, which will bring periods of clouds to the region and a few passing showers possible especially late Monday afternoon and evening. The front keeps on moving through, and we see a dry, cooler air mass for Tuesday through midweek, though clouds may be moving in by later Thursday in response to the next approaching low pressure trough.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloud / sun intervals. A late-day shower possible. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lower elevation fog patches possible. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)

A frontal boundary and low pressure system moving through the region brings unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms August 25. I’m optimistic for a drier air mass from Canada to arrive for the August 26-27 weekend, but there’s a little uncertainty on how quickly this may take place. Fair weather should prevail later in the period with high pressure in control.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

A general northwest flow is expected between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure in central central US. This pattern is not hot and not too wet, but a couple episodes of unsettled weather likely occur with passing disturbances.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)

After yet another active weather day yesterday which included high humidity, showers and thunderstorms, and a handful of tornadoes in southern New England, it’s time to take a deep breath and a break, and mother nature will provide that opportunity this weekend, and into next week, with much less action to talk about and track. We do have an upper level low pressure area situation just to our north that will have an impact on the weather today, however, but not in a major way. It’s part of a pattern that’s delivering a cooler, much drier air mass – a hint of early autumn especially if you were up early. Around the upper low are lots of high and mid level clouds, some of those trying to wheel into our region this morning, but also fighting dry air which limits the extent to which they can cover the sky. But the solar heating, combined with the cold pool of air aloft, will ignite diurnal cumulus / stratocumulus cloud development later this morning into this afternoon which can become quite extensive, limiting the sun that helped them develop. This, along with a cool breeze and low dew points, will make today feel unlike many of the muggy days we’ve experienced this summer – finally a chance to dry out! Sunday’s weather will be quite nice, still with low dew points for comfort, but warmer by 5 to 10 degrees over today’s high temps, with much more abundant sun as the upper low moves away and a weak high pressure ridge follows it. High pressure slips offshore Monday and a cold front approaches from southeastern Canada. This will be our one very warm and slightly humid day of the 5-day period. While high temps jump well into the 80s the dew point climbs back into the 60s, so you’ll feel that bit of mugginess back. The cold front will cross the area from northwest to southeast during the evening and may trigger a shower or possibly a thunderstorm, but this is not looking like a widespread heavy rainfall event – just a quick hit for a few areas, then gone. A mild, dry air mass overspreads the region after that with the return of fair weather Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Sunniest eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT with clouds moving in at times elsewhere through mid morning, then lots of clouds popping up late morning into afternoon with limited sun, especially away from the coast. Highs 71-78. Dew point falling to near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57 except 58-65 urban centers. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)

Northwesterly air flow between high pressure to the west and low pressure in eastern Canada should be the prevalent pattern during this period. Later August 24 into August 25 is the most likely unsettled period based on the timing of the next disturbance moving through the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

Overall similar pattern expected, maybe one or two fairly brief episodes of unsettled weather in an overall drier pattern with near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)

Low pressure wrapping up and tracking north of our region today will drag, in quick succession, a warm front, a trough, and a cold front through. Foggy areas and patches of drizzle will accompany the warm front, a band of widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms accompany the trough, which will move through from west southwest to east northeast this morning, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can accompany the cold front, which will move through from west to east during the early to mid afternoon hours. The greatest chance of severe weather is damaging wind gusts with thunderstorms from the trough, and there is only a slight chance of a damaging wind gust and some hail in any isolated storms with the cold front. It all clears out by evening when a cooler, dry air mass overspreads the region. Our weekend will be a generally nice one, but with a hint of autumn in the air Saturday with very low dew points, below normal temperatures, and a sky that will become filled with lots of diurnal clouds, a result of solar heating and colder air aloft. These dissipate / clear out at night, and help to set up a sunnier Sunday with less wind, warmer air, but still comfortably low humidity. So the pick of the weekend is definitely Sunday for the feel of the season we’re actually in. Monday, we briefly turn warmer and more humid ahead of a Canadian cold front, which may bring an evening shower or thunderstorm, followed by a drier, cooler Tuesday, a result of a northwest flow pattern between Middle USA high pressure ridging and eastern Canadian troughing.

TODAY: Overcast start with areas of fog and drizzle, then widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms move through during the morning hours, with breaks of sun but still a passing shower or thunderstorm possible during early through mid afternoon before increasing sun and passing clouds later on. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s, falling to 50s from west to east late in the day. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W from west to east, higher gusts possible. Isolated strong to damaging wind gusts possible with any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 40s. Wind W 10-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Dew point 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)

Northwesterly air flow between high pressure to the west and low pressure in eastern Canada should be the prevalent pattern during this period. Later August 24 into August 25 is the most likely unsettled period based on the timing of the next disturbance moving through the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

Overall similar pattern expected, maybe one or two fairly brief episodes of unsettled weather in an overall drier pattern with near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)

A frontal boundary continues to hang just to our south, with our region on the cool side. But being on the cool side of this boundary also comes with relatively high humidity, not dry air, so clouds are quite dominant and will continue to be today, but with a lack of any rain / drizzle chances, so just dry weather, mild, humid, but not that much sun. That’s the Thursday story. Low pressure passing to our northwest and north tonight into Friday will finally drag the frontal boundary north as a warm front with an increased chance of showers tonight into Friday before a cold front sweeps eastward across the region. When this happens, add the chance of thunderstorms too. Some downpours are likely, but I’m not expecting widespread heavy rain coverage, and where it does occur it will tend to be brief, limiting flooding. The cold front sweeps offshore by late Friday as we see the shower/storm threat drop off and end from west to east during Friday afternoon to early evening. Behind this front comes a refreshing dry air mass from Canada. Saturday’s weather will feature low humidity, a gusty breeze, and a sun/cloud mix, with dry weather as any showers triggered by cool air aloft will occur in the mountains to our north. A more gentle westerly breeze is expected Sunday with less diurnal clouds, more sun, slightly warmer air, and a small and slow up-tick in humidity levels, but still fairly comfortable. Monday, a cold front is expected to drop southeastward out of Canada in response to a trough in eastern Canada, introducing a new Canadian air mass at some point during the day. This is part of a larger scale pattern that will be keeping a hot ridge of high pressure to our west, preventing heat here.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH, shifting to S 5-15 MPH in southern areas by later in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers evening. Scattered showers overnight, a few possibly heavy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms , diminishing from west to east during the afternoon hours. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W from west to east.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Dew point falling below 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Dew point briefly 60+ then dropping into 50s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)

General pattern should feature a northwesterly upper level air flow with a ridge of high pressure in the central US and a trough of low pressure from eastern Canada to northern New England. This pattern keeps major heat out, with near to below normal temperatures, but leaves the door open for passing disturbances and fronts with shower and thunderstorm chances a couple times.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)

The final days of August look like they’ll feature a similar pattern with temperatures near to below normal as cool air is reinforced behind brief shower chances.