DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)
On this final day of meteorological summer, we get a fall preview – a fresh Canadian airmass delivered by northerly breeze, but still a very nice day as we’ll have plenty of sun, though that sun will be filtered at times by high cloudiness across southern areas, which is actually the northern edge of the cloud shield from Idalia, which made landfall yesterday as a powerful hurricane in northwestern Florida and is now a TS moving off the coastal Carolinas. This system will stay safely south of our region through the coming weekend. But back to today – the gusty breeze that starts the day will settle down with time, but the high temperatures will generally be a few degrees below the normals for the date, and the dew point will be quite low in comparison to the last few days, so you’ll get that hint of autumn air. The first 4 days of September will be governed by high pressure with fair weather. High pressure will still be centered to our west on Friday with still some northerly component to the air flow, and then a more west to southwest flow will develop over the Labor Day Weekend as the high shifts slightly and slowly to the south. That old frontal boundary that I spoke of as a potential shower threat for Sunday will still be “there” in a sense, but the trend on the guidance has been to remove the shower threat, and consistently enough that I will pull it from the forecast, with just some patchy clouds being the result of the dissipating boundary Saturday night and/or Sunday. So the summer season, as defined as the time period running from Memorial Day Weekend to Labor Day Weekend, ends up book-ended by 2 spectacular holiday weekends with hardly any of that type of weather in between. The only caution to toss out there is the heavy surf, large swells, and enhanced rip currents along the coast from distant passing Hurricane Franklin, which basically peaks today then diminishes as we head toward and into the weekend. But the diminishment will be gradual, so anybody with coastal/beach plans should be aware of this.
TODAY: High clouds to the south, otherwise sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point falling through 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing later.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point near 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog in lowest elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 55. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.
MONDAY (LABOR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)
High pressure will sit offshore with fair, more humid, and very warm weather September 5-6, before a frontal boundary moves in with showery weather September 7. A little more uncertain later in the period as to whether or not that front pushes away and Canadian high pressure brings drier weather, or the unsettled weather hangs on for a while longer. Will re-visit and refine this outlook with each update.
DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)
Previous outlooks for the medium range period have indicated a generally northwesterly upper air flow and fair, mild to warm weather, and this is still the general idea overall, but the trend on some reliable guidance places low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north, which can be a sign of unsettled weather sneaking back in if the low pressure to the south is close enough to exert more influence on the region. Just watching that change while I don’t really change the overall outlook from the current mostly fair and mild to warm status.