Friday August 18 2023 Forecast (7:18AM)

277 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)

Low pressure wrapping up and tracking north of our region today will drag, in quick succession, a warm front, a trough, and a cold front through. Foggy areas and patches of drizzle will accompany the warm front, a band of widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms accompany the trough, which will move through from west southwest to east northeast this morning, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can accompany the cold front, which will move through from west to east during the early to mid afternoon hours. The greatest chance of severe weather is damaging wind gusts with thunderstorms from the trough, and there is only a slight chance of a damaging wind gust and some hail in any isolated storms with the cold front. It all clears out by evening when a cooler, dry air mass overspreads the region. Our weekend will be a generally nice one, but with a hint of autumn in the air Saturday with very low dew points, below normal temperatures, and a sky that will become filled with lots of diurnal clouds, a result of solar heating and colder air aloft. These dissipate / clear out at night, and help to set up a sunnier Sunday with less wind, warmer air, but still comfortably low humidity. So the pick of the weekend is definitely Sunday for the feel of the season we’re actually in. Monday, we briefly turn warmer and more humid ahead of a Canadian cold front, which may bring an evening shower or thunderstorm, followed by a drier, cooler Tuesday, a result of a northwest flow pattern between Middle USA high pressure ridging and eastern Canadian troughing.

TODAY: Overcast start with areas of fog and drizzle, then widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms move through during the morning hours, with breaks of sun but still a passing shower or thunderstorm possible during early through mid afternoon before increasing sun and passing clouds later on. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s, falling to 50s from west to east late in the day. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W from west to east, higher gusts possible. Isolated strong to damaging wind gusts possible with any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 40s. Wind W 10-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Dew point 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)

Northwesterly air flow between high pressure to the west and low pressure in eastern Canada should be the prevalent pattern during this period. Later August 24 into August 25 is the most likely unsettled period based on the timing of the next disturbance moving through the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

Overall similar pattern expected, maybe one or two fairly brief episodes of unsettled weather in an overall drier pattern with near to below normal temperatures.

277 thoughts on “Friday August 18 2023 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  5. Thanks, TK.

    It’s been quite miserable on the New England farms this year. Crop yield is very poor. And last year was miserable, too. Last year it was drought. This year it’s rain. Of course, these things happen. But I do feel for the farmers. Farming in New England is always hard. But when Mother Nature doesn’t cooperate it makes it that much harder.

    1. I believe it, it’s been an overall muggy stretch and now this morning, it’s briefly headed to oppressive.

      But, they’ll dry out tomorrow.

  9. The area near far NE CT/heading into far NW RI (going to stay south of you Vicki)

    I’d keep an eye on that.

  13. Thanks TK.

    Dark and loud deluge here in Coventry CT this AM. 1.50″ even on the rain gauge in a little over an hour. Up to 4″ on the month and 19.5″ since July 1.

    Storm was severe warned but not a lot of wind with it, just some very heavy rain.

  14. Eric F has the coefficient radar posted about 5 mins ago near this small couplet and there’s a possible debris ball near this identified area.

    1. At 840 AM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Johnston, moving
      northeast at 30 mph.

      HAZARD…Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

      SOURCE…Radar confirmed tornado near Scituate.

  17. Not the specific possible tornado itself, but this cell needs to be watched til it’s offshore, because the showers east of it is probably a sign of the warm front progressing slowly northward around the south shore and thus, conditions are probably favorable for spinups until this thing gets offshore.

    2. This cell is getting closer and closer to the radar site, making it more and more difficult to identify a couplet.

  18. This is a couplet, I feel that’s not easy to see on individual frames, but it’s real noticeable on a loop.

    2. Next frame it kind of went poof. There was something there, but so far looks like nothing developing. Wil continue to watch in case it tightens up again.

  20. Thanks TK
    SREF once again highlighted the area where that tornado warning is in place right now.

  21. The main storm is going to our northwest.
    Stay safe, North!

    Very dark with thunder and lightning here now.

    I have the Norton emergency scanner on.

  22. When that forecast model highlights an area it gets our attention for potential tornadic activity.

  24. My DIL just said she’d heard a possible tornado hit near Amica building in lincoln RI. A few blocks from their house

  25. Repeat of what happened 2 weeks ago

    Storm motion is quicker.

    Good: northern side of supercell doesn’t have as much time to drop 4-7 inches of rain as it did in Andover, Billerica, etc

    Bad: associated couplets/possible couplets also tracking more quickly.

  26. Getting awfully dark here and beginning to rain.
    NO THUNDER OR LIGHTNING at this time.
    Wind picking up a bit as well.

  27. Millie, Franklin look like they have gusty, same direction winds

    Mansfield is the town where I see a possible couplet.

    This was off of a 9:16pm frame.

  28. With the severe thunderstorm warning for the Boston area tornado possible attached to that warning.

      1. Yes.

        On loop, overall cell is becoming more impressive with time and a couplet within is trying to tighten.

  30. Impressive, unfortunately, overall looking fell.

    Wouldn’t be surprised with another tornado warning somewhere around or now northeast of Mansfield.

  33. Or could be the same one where it lifted off the ground and then a few miles later touched down again.

    1. Is the area that keeps carrying a warning headed toward JP and then Boston??

      Warned area close to tom but seems to be moving more NE and not toward him

  40. This cell has impressive inflow into it on a big scale because our S and Se winds have freshened quite a bit.

  41. Looking at Power Outages U.S. map where that potential tornado was in Rhode Island the number is at 3,297.

  42. In my opinion, which could be wrong, if there’s something, it’s near stoughton, headed for Randolph.

      1. BUT, I don’t have all of the tools. All I have is the storm relative velocity display for couplets. As SAK pointed out to us, there is a bit more to it as well.

        I am just not seeing a clear couplet in that area, that is all I am saying. 🙂

  43. Tom, you best be on alert for any changes as that cell heads towards you.

    btw, I am supposed to be under a severe thunderstorm warning!

    NOT!!! not even close. 🙂

  44. We are ok and no wind damage. 1 inch of rain in 10 mins. Stay safe everyone in the path. This line means business.

  46. Action has passed in Sharon but rotation was all around us. A little wind and extremely heavy rain.

  50. If there is damage done to your property it doesn’t matter if it is a tornado or straight line winds.

  58. Absolute torrent and some wind but the dopplar made it look like the stronger winds may have been north in marshfield hills

  60. Indirectly, an area or heavy rain seems to be intensifying in areas northwest of Boston that absolutely do not need it.

  62. Thank goodness, this rotating supercell is just about offshore just east of the Braintree split.

    That sure had a long track and I’ll be curious to see how many tornadoes it put down.

  64. Logan’s 10am ob had a SE wind at 33, gusting to 39 mph

    So they did get some wind even on the north side of it.

        1. Interesting.

          You did notice that couplet near Weymouth, perhaps the outflow more easily reached to the airport because of the smooth ocean ???

          1. That sounds reasonable to me. I would have noticed the wind gusting into the 40s. I would have noticed gusting
            to the 30’s. I am sitting right next to a window. 🙂

  65. I think the storm/tornado warnings have been taken down. Flash Flood Warnings are still up in some counties.

  66. Wild morning. I find it all fascinating.
    Now I want to see How many confirmed tornadoes there were at were the ratings.

    1. I know what you mean 🙂

      That supercell still looks so impressive out in Massachusetts bay.

      The far eastern end of the north shore is going to get brief torrential rain on its north side.

      Norton, NWS probably has a busy 24-48 hrs ahead with some surveys of damage.

      1. There almost looks like there is a couplet off shore of Gloucester.
        Perhaps a water spout in the works?

    2. I also know what you mean. I did manage to get a shower in once I knew my immediate family and my whw family was safe. But have yet to have tea or food and am just sitting here looking at WHW, the radar and twitter.

      1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

        I can see that I ate at some point, though I don’t actually remember eating, which means I’ll need to eat again 🙂 🙂 🙂

          1. I was still asleep when thunder woke me here. It was next to nothing so closed my eyes again then decided to check radar to see if more was coming. Enter tornado warning over sons home in lincoln RI

            I shot straight out of bed.

  69. The NWS just got my attention to the north shore for a severe thunderstorm warning.

    Possible broad couplet west of Ipswich ?

    1. doesn’t look like a whole bunch.
      I would post what is there, but for some reason, my computer stopped seeing my phone-02*(#_!@*#(_!*@()#&!)(*@#)(!&@)*(#&!)@(*#

  70. Checking Eric F twitter, big trees and damage in Johnston, RI and Andover, MA deluged again with flooding.

      1. Oh ok, I had forgotten where that was. Looks significantly hit there.

        On Facebook, seeing NWS reporting that there are trees and wires down in north providence, Mansfield and I think it’s was stoughton.

        Just from pictures, what was down in Johnston RI looked like full tree trunks, etc while north providence looked a little smaller, decent sized branches, etc

    2. Wait. Andover? Isn’t that north shore was there a tornado warned area there. Or do I have my geography wrong

  71. As always I am very grateful for Tom and JpDave for guiding us through these now far too frequent weather situations.

    1. Thanks Vicki.

      Kudos to JpDave and to all !

      So glad we have this blog to communicate and talk through these situations.

      1. Thanks Tom and we can’t survive without your valuable input!!!!

        AGREE 100% on blog. We are blessed to have it!!!

      1. I thought the same. I did give a lot of credence to the report of the car being picked up since it came from the fire dept

        Appears whatever it was sadly went through a cemetery there too.

  77. Yet more severe storms. Ugh!

    It’s been a difficult summer. Very challenging. I can’t recall such a long active (and humid) pattern. Looks like that will calm down in the coming days, but my guess is that calm period won’t last all that long.

    I’m really glad Eric Fisher reminds us of how challenging the summer has been, to farmers, to vacationers, to ordinary people. Rather than painting a rosy picture of a summer which hasn’t been all that rosy, he tells it like it is. I always appreciate that dose of realism.

    1. At least one apple orchard out this way has said it will not open due to weather. We know peaches took a hit. Farmers are struggling horribly.

      1. Yes, they’re tough lot but I do shed tears when I hear that farmers are hurting. They’re indispensable people. They work VERY hard and are always subject to the whims of mother nature. What they produce, often from seedling to final product, is absolutely essential to all of us.

  78. On my runs I’ve noticed many trees – especially older ones – that have succumbed to the wet summer. Though dry summers can also impact trees negatively, it’s very wet summers that may do more damage. The ground is totally water-logged. Roots are loosened. It doesn’t take much wind to then knock trees over.

    My rain gauge is broken. But we must have had over an inch in torrential rain. That in itself is not the problem. It’s the fact that it’s essentially been happening every 2-4 days most of the summer.

    1. Over my head some, my guess is that the supercell had a big rotation overall.

      So, the whole thing is rotating. To its south, it’s ingesting all kinds of warm, tropical air that kind of keeps feeding it.

      Then, in that southeast quadrant along its path, where there much smaller circulations that become tornadoes and did they make it to the ground ?

  81. Got very dark here in Sudbury and poured w/a little thunder. Far from the warned tornado area. I knew the direction it was going wouldn’t affect us but was a bit frightened that more would develop elsewhere in MA. I have great interest in the weather – storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, snowstorms even heat waves and the such. But this summer has seemed unusual w/so many tornado warnings and actual tornadoes. Correct me if I am wrong. I am glad all are safe and a big thank you to Tom, JP Dave and everyone else on the blog!

    1. Glad you are safe and I know exactly what you mean. In my 72 (74 if anyone is really counting), we have not had worldwide weather this crazy.

      My granddaughter just looked out and said it is raining with sun. Isn’t that cook. I smiled and said….that is Rainshine!!

      2. 3<
        Wish the heart came out the color red. Marc has promised to get me a new computer (laptop). I have been using this desktop computer for 25 yrs.

    2. Oh my. What a thrill to watch. Thank you, Joshua. I know it was 1985 but I still got goosebumps watching this

  83. Philip, the sun is out here. My youngest just walked through and said….sorry, I am quoting…..”Holy crap there is sun!”

  84. Not confirmed, but, based on what I am reading on the Mansfield Police Facebook page, it would not surprise me that there was a touchdown in the East Mansfield area. I think the storm went through or over where my dad is buried at St. Mary Cemetery.

    Ironically, that’s nearly exactly the same place where the tornado occured about three weeks ago.

    1. Oh dear. I hope there is no damage and am sure glad you are safe

      I was thinking about the similarities to previous weeks. Interesting

  88. Back to Hilary and a first here
    From an article on ABC News

    The first tropical storm watch in California’s history has now been issued. The watch is in effect from the Mexico/California border up to California’s border between Orange County and Los Angeles County.

      1. The gulf of California is 32C, 90F and the winds are likely to be S and SE off of that, so even though the hurricane will be weakening, maybe quickly, that’s quite a humidity/moisture source pointed at so Cal, Nevada, etc …..

  93. SClarke. You said I had mentioned no mosquitos but didn’t want to jinx. Now we have west Nile. I was chatting with north’s bride last night re TV shows and mentioned we were in basement last week. They were in basement today. Then I posted I didn’t think tornado warned area was headed toward Tom but rather might stay just west. We all know what happened there.

    I’m going to try to refrain from commenting on current events.

  94. From NWS Boston

    The NWS survey team has confirmed a tornado touchdown in North Attleboro and Mansfield this morning. Further details regarding path length and EF rating will be forthcoming after the survey has been completed

      2. I haven’t seen anything from anyone with damage but a part of North Attleboro borders Mansfield so maybe that part of town.

            1. I’ve been doing that all day using my phone rather than tablet. Welcome to the family. Plus you spent hours already staring at couplets. Never a worry

  106. Absolutely pouring once again.

    The ground is so saturated that the puddles are massive and everywhere throughout the Esplanade Park, and this was before the current deluge.

  108. I don’t often go the hyperbolic route, but this summer has been something else in terms of the persistence of the patterns, how active it’s been, tornadoes, absolute deluges on a very regular basis, and really humid. The latter got to me today. On my run the air was so thick and hard to breathe in. I looked up at the heavens and said “Uncle, God, whoever you are, please give us respite from this humidity.”

  115. 3 1/2 straight dark days in Boston. Sun peaked out briefly just after noon today which is where the “half” comes from.

    At least sunburn was not an issue that’s for sure. Save the SP lotion for the weekend.

    1. JPD you said yesterday that one of these days..,,

      This may have been that day. One EF-0, two EF-1s and an EF-2. And one still under investigation

      2. Tom and Dave, amazing analysis yesterday picking this potential out and the low and triple point potential.

    3. Two different sides of town in North Attleboro. Thankfully we are in middle of them. Luckily no one died or was seriously injured in any of these tornadoes today.

          1. That is what confuses me. My link above says four tornadoes. 0 in stoughton. 1 in north Attleboro and Mansfield and 2 in RI

            That says to me they count NA ans Mans as two???

      1. You know, see moose crossing, deer crossing signs on our highways ….

        Tornado crossing ?? Sign would have the tornado symbol on it.

        (thank goodness no one was injured or killed)

Comments are closed.