DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 18-22)

Low pressure passing north of our region today will drag a warm front across the region first, followed by a cold front. The warm front will produce a couple rounds of showers with possible embedded thunder. One or two clusters or lines of thunderstorms can be expected later today from west to east with the cold front and possible pre-frontal trough. There are some competing negative and positive factors with regard to the chance of severe storms. Negative factors, against severe weather, include lack of sun in the warm sector (between the two fronts) and limited instability. Positive factors, in favor of severe weather, include abundant potential energy and notable wind shear. The latter can enable individual storms to rotate, which would increase tornado potential if we were to get an organized storm not part of a solid line. A more linear set-up can still result in strong to damaging straight-line wind gusts. Odds favor this activity occurring mostly north of I-90, but all of the region should be weather-aware this afternoon should any of this potential be realized. Even without storm-caused wind gusts, we will have a pretty active southerly wind developing today. The threat comes to an end rather quickly this evening as the cold front sweeps through and drier air arrives. Friday’s weather features a gusty westerly wind, seasonable warmth but dry air, and somewhat limited sun as an area of low pressure passes to our south, sending its high cloud shield across the sky, while there are also some pop-up fair weather clouds. Saturday will feature additional fair-weather clouds, though I believe any pop-up showers stay to our north. Sunday, some high cloudiness makes a return ahead of the next approaching low pressure area, but also additional fair weather clouds will pop-up, but again any showers that develop should stay to the north. There will be a slight cooling trend Saturday and Sunday, and humidity levels will remain comfortably low. A gusty breeze remains active Saturday but diminishes later in the day, and lighter winds are expected on Sunday. We welcome summer with the occurrence of the solstice at 4:24 a.m. on Sunday. The aforementioned low pressure area is expected to bring an overcast sky and a rain chance for Monday, but the details including timing and rain coverage and intensity are to be determined.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers with a chance of a thunderstorm morning through midday. Additional showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, with isolated strong to severe storms possible. Highs 74-81. Dew point rises through the 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-40 MPH.

TONIGHT: An early shower or thunderstorm toward Cape Cod otherwise clearing. Fog patches evening. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind SW shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouds limit sun at times. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 50. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds decrease. Lows 54-61. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 74-81. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 50. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 62-69. Dew point rises to near 60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 23-27)

Shower threats June 24 and late June 25 into early June 26 based on current timing. Fair otherwise. Temperatures variable but averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

West northwest flow and a couple disturbances with short-lived unsettled threats, Otherwise, mainly dry. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 17-21)

We have another nice day in store for today but there will be some varying amounts of high and mid level cloud cover to limit the sun. A disturbance approaches from the west and while it can trigger a few showers and thunderstorms to our west later today that activity is expected to dissipate before arriving. Overnight light rain approaches as a warm front begins its trek across the region, one that will produce additional showers and perhaps some embedded thunder in our area during Thursday morning. We enter the warm sector of low pressure passing to our north Thursday afternoon, and a trough and cold front will then move through the region, being focus points for showers and thunderstorms. While a lack of sun and marginal instability are negative factors, there is some potential for a few strong storms with the help of a couple other positive factors, including decent wind shear, which could allow any established storms to become super cells and rotate. While this probability is not extreme, it’s enough that we should pay close attention until the storm threat passes and ends in the evening. So, be weather-aware Thursday, just in case. Behind this what is a three day weekend for many (Friday through Sunday) looks quite nice. We will see some breezy conditions at times between low pressure to our northeast and high pressure building from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic especially Friday and Saturday. Both of those days will also see some passing fair weather clouds, but I strongly suspect any pop-up showers will be confined to the mountains to our north. Sunday, we’ll see some high clouds fanning across the sky in advance of our next wet weather threat, but that will hold off easily for a dry day and evening to finish the weekend! Heat and humidity will be absent during this stretch as well, making it quite pleasant for outdoor activities. We welcome summer with the occurrence of the solstice at 4:24 a.m. on Sunday.

TODAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Showers arrive west to east pre-dawn. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers with a chance of a thunderstorm during the morning. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, with strong storms a potential. Highs 74-81. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: An early shower or thunderstorm toward Cape Cod otherwise clearing. Fog patches evening. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A few clouds, then clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 76-83. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 22-26)

Active pattern next week. Rain threat June 22. Shower threat June 24. T-storm threat June 26. Temperatures variable but averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Quieter pattern here. West northwest flow and a couple disturbances with short-lived unsettled threats, Otherwise, mainly dry. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 16-20)

The final full five days of astronomical spring span this forecast period, and we have some nice weather much of the time, with one interruption. We start with fair weather today as high pressure slides well south of us, across the Mid Atlantic Coast, while a quasi-stationary low pressure area sits in Atlantic Canada. After a cool start, it will warm to seasonable levels, but the coast ends up coolest this afternoon as a weakening westerly wind flow allows sea breezes to eventually develop – but a very nice day overall! Decorative cirrus cloud patches are visible in the northwestern and northern sky to start the day today, but in general we’ll see unlimited sunshine. More cloud cover will be present on Wednesday as a disturbance closes in from the west. This may trigger a shower or thunderstorm in western New England later in the day but I suspect none of that activity will survive to reach the WHW forecast area. However, clouds will thicken up ahead of a warm front Wednesday night with rain chances increasing overnight. Low pressure crossing the Great Lakes and heading for the St. Lawrence Valley will pull that front and its attendant rainfall through the region into Thursday morning before we emerge into the low’s warm sector. This is when we’ll see a spike in humidity and then have to watch for showers and thunderstorms as the low’s cold front approaches and passes through the region. Thursday’s shower and storm potential does have to be watched as there will be some ingredients for severe storms in place. However, this no longer appears as if it will be an optimal set-up for severe storms due to the lack of sunshine in the warm sector and also the best instability remaining to the west and south of the WHW forecast area. It still bears watching, however. Whatever showers and storms do occur will move out that evening as the cold front moves through and offshore. This sets up dry, breezy, but pleasant weather for late this week with a west to northwest air flow via Canada and the Great Lakes.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing to under 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point rises toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive overnight west to east. Fog patches form pre-dawn. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with early showers likely, then variably cloudy with potential showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point rises to near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: An early shower or thunderstorm toward Cape Cod otherwise clearing. Fog patches evening. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A few clouds, then clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 21-25)

Fair weather continues to finish the weekend as we welcome summer on June 21 (solstice 4:24 a.m. EDT). Wet weather potentials June 22 & 24 with fair weather June 23 & 25. No significant heat in sight.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 26-30)

Home stretch of June expected to feature a west northwest flow / progressive pattern with a couple shower and t-storm chances from passing disturbances, otherwise mostly fair weather and variable but mostly fairly close to normal temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 15-19)

A cold front exits, stage-right (i.e., offshore to the east) early this morning, taking the last of its showers and thunderstorms with it, and then clouds give way to plenty of sun as drier air arrives during today. High pressure slides just south of the region Tuesday with fair and pleasant weather. Dry weather continues Wednesday but you’ll notice an increase in high cloudiness in response to low pressure heading into the Great Lakes with its warm front extending out from it and approaching our region. That front will thicken the clouds up Wednesday night when a shower or thunderstorm can occur as more humid air arrives. As the low passes to our north on Thursday, its trailing cold front, and probably a pre-frontal trough, will sweep across our region, acting on the warm, humid air in place. This will trigger a round or two of showers and thunderstorms, and there is some potential for severe weather to occur. Updates will fine-tune that part of the forecast over the next couple of days. Behind this front will come a cooler, drier Canadian air mass for Friday with an active breeze and a mix of sunshine and clouds that day.

TODAY: A shower or thunderstorm possible far eastern areas, especially southeastern NH and Cape Cod, early in the day, then clouds give way to sun. Highs 78-85. Dew point drops to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 76-83, coolest South Coast. Dew point rises toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Fog patches form. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 76-83. Dew point rises to near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Any showers / thunderstorms end, followed by clearing. Fog patches through evening. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 20-24)

Fair, pleasant weekend weather June 20-21. The summer solstice occurs at 4:24 a.m. EDT on June 21. Humidity, clouds, and shower chances may increase from the early to middle portion of next week as the air flow turns more southerly and a trough approaches from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 25-29)

West to northwest air flow with one or two disturbances causing passing shower / t-storm chances, otherwise a fairly dry pattern sets up with somewhat changeable but generally seasonably warm temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 14-18)

The heat and humidity will tick-up over yesterday a little, but the latter will not be to the level of what we experienced Thursday and Friday of this week, and a ventilating breeze will also make it more tolerable outside today. We stay rain-free through the daylight hours and into the evening, with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing late evening into overnight from west to east with a passing cold front. This front will move offshore early Monday with a lingering shower possible in the eastern coastal plain early. Otherwise look for a cooler, dry day with a breeze and a sun / cloud mix. High pressure slides south of the region with fair and seasonably warm weather Tuesday, though humidity levels remain fairly low. Clouds increase Wednesday ahead of an approaching warm front as low pressure heads into the Great Lakes, but I do expect our day to be rain-free, seasonably warm, and becoming moderately humid. Thursday’s weather is the most interesting and potentially volatile of this 5-day period as we will have a vigorous surface moving from the Great Lakes to southeastern Canada, and a vigorous upper trough moving into our region. With the arrival of warm, humid, unstable air, the stage is set for showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for some severe weather. With it being “day 5”, obviously it’s not a highest confidence forecast, but the signs are there already and I feel it’s important to note it now, and obviously update the outlook as we get closer to that day.

TODAY: Sun filtered to interrupted by variable high and mid level clouds. Highs 85-92 except 77-84 South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point rises above 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20-25 MPH, strongest on the South Coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A good chance of showers with possible thunderstorms from west to east late evening and overnight. Fog patches in sheltered locations. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible especially around any storms.

MONDAY: Early clouds with a shower potential especially eastern coastal areas, then a sun / cloud mix. Highs 77-84. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 79-86, coolest South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 76-83. Dew point rises to near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 19-23)

The June 19-21 period features fair weather, starting cooler and drier with a breeze followed by a warming trend. The summer solstice occurs at 4:24 a.m. EDT on June 21. Higher humidity along with shower and thunderstorm chances June 22-23.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 24-28)

Leaning toward a wet weather opportunity with a passing trough early period followed by a drier west to northwest flow and seasonably warm weather.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 13-17)

A stellar weekend, book-ended by cold fronts – the first of which is moving offshore starting this morning with a band of clouds lingering over southeastern MA, but the day will turn out basically sunny across the region and while it will be on the very warm to hot side, it will be much more comfortable in comparison to yesterday as dew points drop into the 50s behind the front. The relatively dry air will stay in place into Sunday before the humidity does come up a little bit later in the day, ahead of the next approaching cold front. This front will send cloudiness into our region, limiting the sun as the day goes on, but a shower and thunderstorm threat will hold off until night, arriving from west to east across the region at that time. This front will move through the region overnight and offshore early Monday, bringing another cooler, drier Canadian air mass into our region for Monday and Tuesday as well, though we’ll warm a little bit more Tuesday afternoon as an area of high pressure slides to our south, and further still on Wednesday as the high sits offshore. A warm front approaching the region may bring some clouds in by later Wednesday, but I expect that day to still be dry and comfortable.

TODAY: Early clouds southeastern MA, otherwise sunny. Highs 84-91. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point sub-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun filtered by high clouds. Highs 85-92 except 77-84 South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point creeps back over 60 by late-day. Wind S 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A good chance of showers with possible thunderstorms from west to east. Fog patches. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible especially around any storms.

MONDAY: Early clouds with a shower potential especially east, then a sun / cloud mix. Highs 77-84. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 79-86, coolest South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 18-22)

Watching June 18 for a spike of high humidity and a thunderstorm potential as low pressure passes to our north. Cooler, drier weather end of week, warming over the June 20-21 weekend and beyond. The Summer Solstice occurs at 4:24 a.m. EDT June 21.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 23-27)

Continued mixed signals and inconsistencies in guidance out this far. Still leaning toward a progressive pattern with a couple disturbance bringing shower / thunderstorm chances and air mass changes.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)

High humidity remains in place today while a weak back-door cold front makes a visit from the northeast into southeastern NH and eastern MA, perhaps as far south and west and northern RI later in the day. A very weak disturbance is passing by aloft while this is all taking place. These ingredients bring the chance for some pop up showers and thunderstorms, though I do not expect coverage to be very high. We have a few showers to start today already in south central NH and a few southwest of Boston, but most of them will fade as the disturbance triggering them remains weak. The back-door frontal boundary can help trigger a few more as we move through the day, but again I would expect these to be isolated. Further west, outside of the front’s influence, a couple air mass showers and storms can also pop up. Bottom line for today: You’ll probably stay dry, but keep an eye to the sky (and on the radar) just in case. Inland is hottest while the coast gets some relief, but humidity is up regionwide, so muggy regardless. Tonight, a weakening frontal boundary moves through from west to east, but I only expect a couple of showers and thunderstorms to be possible as it moves through, with many areas missing out on those. The passage of this front does bring lower humidity for the weekend, especially Saturday when we have a northwest breeze transporting some Canadian air into the region. This is modified air, however, so it will still be quite a warm day. Sunday, high pressure shifts offshore and our wind turns southerly ahead of an approaching cold front, so the humidity levels tick up just a tad, but remain below oppressive levels. The southerly breeze will be active at times which will help help counteract the warmth and moderate humidity if you’re outside. The shower and thunderstorm threat increase from west to east at night as the front moves through the region, then offshore by early Monday when a shower can linger in far eastern areas to start the day. We’ll experience a cooler, drier northwesterly air flow behind the front on Monday, and a westerly breeze with moderating temperatures on Tuesday as high pressure slides to our south. Previous ideas about a wave of low pressure passing by to the south that day have shifted and that system would be well out to sea with a more progressive high sliding off the Mid Atlantic Coast at that time.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible – favoring south central NH early in the day, and favoring areas mostly west of I-95 in the afternoon but low coverage with most areas staying rain-free. Highs 77-84 coastal plain, 85-92 inland with warmest in central MA to southwestern NH. Dew point 65+. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH coastal plain eastern MA & NH, SW up to 10 MPH further inland areas.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly cloudy late evening and overnight with a shower or thunderstorm possible from west to east. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 82-89. Dew point falls below 60. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point sub-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun filtered by high clouds. Highs 84-91 except 77-84 South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point creeps back over 60 by late-day. Wind S 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A good chance of showers with possible thunderstorms from west to east. Fog patches. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible especially around any storms.

MONDAY: Early clouds with a shower potential especially east, then a sun / cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 17-21)

Fair June 17 but clouds increase ahead of a warm front, which passes by early June 18 and sets up a shower and thunderstorm chance prior to the passage of a cold front as low pressure travels north of the region. Fair, breezy, cooler weather follows it June 19 then high pressure dominates with fair weather and a slow warming trend on the June 20-21 weekend. The Summer Solstice occurs at 4:24 a.m. EDT June 21.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 22-26)

Mixed signals from guidance and the pattern is a little hard to define in the early days of astronomical summer as we head into late June. I do see the tendency for a somewhat progressive pattern, and one or two disturbances bringing shower and thunderstorm chances. One question to answer is if a mid period low pressure wave brings us a shot of more substantial rainfall. Many details to-be-determined.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 11-15)

A warm front crossed the region overnight with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms as well. The last of these linger in southeastern MA early this morning and will be moving offshore prior to mid morning, leaving our area with a mix of sun and clouds, very warm to hot air and higher humidity. A disturbance crossing the region later in the day, combined with the diurnal heat and high humidity, will trigger a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms. Any storms can be strong to locally severe, but I am expecting fairly low overall coverage, with activity favoring areas west of I-95 and south of I-90 – or more geographically stated, south central MA to eastern CT. Where it occurs, this activity will fade / dissipate with the arrival of night, and a fair, warm, and humid night is ahead. A sneaky back-door cold front will slide into eastern areas (southeastern NH and eastern MA, possibly as far southwest as RI) overnight into Friday, with these areas experiencing some marine-cooled air, keeping Friday’s high temperatures down over today’s. Hottest temps will occur in interior southern NH to central MA and eastern CT, and it is in these areas, close to the boundary of the ocean air, that a few showers and thunderstorms can pop up on Friday during the day. I would expect that any of these would be isolated and fairly quickly rain themselves out. Meanwhile, a cold front extending from low pressure passing far to our north will be moving in our direction, and a fairly decent line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to fire up along it well west of our area on Friday afternoon. The timing of this front getting into our region is late Friday evening through the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, at which time we’ll likely see weakening remnants of that line from west to east with a few showers and possible thunderstorms. And now for the weekend, which looks like it will feature very warm weather but somewhat lower humidity as well. The first front will have moved offshore by early Saturday, leaving that day with plenty of sun and a few fair weather clouds. Sunday’s sky will feature some high clouds at times ahead of a second cold front, but the timing of that front is such that the heavier cloud cover and eventual shower and thunderstorm chances are held off until later Sunday night. The humidity may begin to creep back up Sunday afternoon ahead of this second front, but this will also come with a more active breeze which would counteract it. Summary: Looking good for daytime outdoor weekend plans! Monday’s weather may start unsettled with a lingering shower as a front pushes offshore, and then the rest of the day looks fair but also cooler.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered late-day thunderstorms with the potential for a strong to severe storm, activity most likely west of I-95 and south of I-90. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 South Coast, but also can drop toward 80 locally on eastern shores. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but can turn onshore at east-facing shores at times.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early, mainly southwest of Boston. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Remote chance of isolated shower or thunderstorm, favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 77-84 coastal plain, 85-92 inland with warmest in central MA to southwestern NH. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH with most pronounced onshore wind NH Seacoast and eastern MA.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly cloudy late evening and overnight with a shower or thunderstorm possible from west to east. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 82-89. Dew point falls below 60. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley, swamp, and bog fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind NW dropping to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point creeps back over 60 by late-day. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A good chance of showers with possible thunderstorms from west to east. Fog patches. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible especially around any storms.

MONDAY: Early clouds with a shower potential especially east, then a sun / cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 16-20)

June 16: Watching for a wave of low pressure passing to the south that should keep its rain offshore but may create a lot of clouds and a cooler onshore air flow. June 17-18: Warming up, trough of low pressure and frontal system brings a shower and thunderstorm chance, especially June 18. June 19-20: Fair weather returns, cooler initially, then warming up.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 21-25)

We welcome summer with the occurrence of the solstice at 4:24 a.m. EDT on June 21. Pattern in these early days of astronomical summer carries some uncertainty but the trend is for a couple shower and thunderstorm chances and up and down temps / humidity – with details TBD.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 10-14)

High pressure sits south of New England today and Thursday, delivering higher humidity, aided by the approach and passage of a warm front extending from low pressure moving through the Great Lakes – the front approaching today, passing through tonight, and our region in the low’s warm sector Thursday. Shower potential exists with the frontal passage this evening and tonight, and a disturbance passing through the region, acting with the warmth and humidity, can result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the day Thursday. It should be noted that the activity later Thursday, while not widespread, could include strong to severe storms, so it will be something we need to monitor closely. Friday, the frontal boundary looks like it will get shoved back to the southwest as a back-door cold front by Canadian high pressure, and this will knock the temperature down a few notches, especially at north-facing and east-facing coastal areas, but that front should lift back to the northeast at night just as a cold front approaches from the west. This will be a weakening frontal boundary but still can trigger a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. The timing looks late night Friday to early morning Saturday, which will likely limit the potency of convective activity, being far from hours of maximum solar heating. Behind that trough, while it is a very warm day Saturday, it should be stable enough to limit or eliminate any potential pop-up showers and storms. I’ve been keeping a close eye on Sunday for the potential of thunderstorms along a stronger cold front. While I haven’t seen enough consistency in model guidance to make me highly confident of this, I am more confident that we’ll see that front still pretty far back to the northwest during the day, which likely ends up threat-free in our area, with shower and t-storm potential increasing somewhat from west to east at night. I’ll continue to monitor this. So, based on current thoughts, shower and t-storm threats in the early morning hours of Saturday and the nighttime hours of Sunday mean that most of the weekend would be dry, without the worry of any convective interruptions for your outdoor plans!

TODAY: Sun becoming limited by lots of clouds. Highs 80-87. Dew point climbs toward 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few showers around and the remote chance of a thunderstorm. Fog patches overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point reaches then exceeds 60. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered late-day thunderstorms with the potential for a strong to severe storm. Highs 83-90. Dew point pushes 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early. Lows 65-72. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Remote chance of isolated shower or thunderstorm, favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 75-82 coast, 83-90 inland. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, favoring western areas. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy then increasing sun. A shower or thunderstorm possible early morning, favoring eastern areas. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+ but may drop somewhat during the afternoon. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy valley, swamp, and bog fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind NW dropping to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 85-92 but may be cooler in some coastal locations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but can give way to local coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 15-19)

The large scale pattern features a broad trough of low pressure from the Great Lakes to Northeast early through middle portion of next week, presenting some opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Details to-be-determined. Fair weather is expected to return by late week. Temperatures trend a little cooler through midweek, then rebound at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 20-24)

Still monitoring the medium range guidance for signs of consistency. Best pattern signal indicates high pressure ridging returning to the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes which would put our region in a northwest flow. This would be a mostly dry pattern, but we’d have to watch for a couple of progressive disturbances to trigger shower and thunderstorm chances. One thing that is certain: The summer solstice occurs at 4:24 a.m. EDT on June 21.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 9-13)

High pressure sinks southward and turns our air flow westerly today, which will be fair, warm, and dry. Midweek brings higher humidity as the high stays to the south and feeds more moisture and warmth into the region, while a trough moving in from the west brings an increase shower and thunderstorm chance. We’ll have a nosing in of high pressure from Atlantic Canada on Friday to cool the coast and get rid of shower and t-storm chances with the exception of a possible pop up shower or storm over inland areas. A weakening cold front will moving west to east across the region late Friday night to about midday Saturday, bringing the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms along it, but activity looks limited.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 80-87 except 73-80 South Coast. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 57-64. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. A shower and thunderstorm chance in the afternoon and evening. Highs 81-88. Dew point climbs over 60. Wind SW to S around 10 MPH, could gusts to 15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower possible. Fog patches favoring interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and fair-weather clouds. Only a slight risk of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm inland in the afternoon. Highs 75-82 coast, 83-90 inland. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm possible overnight, favoring western areas. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the morning, favoring eastern areas. Highs 82-89. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 14-18)

Lower humidity, a breeze, but very warm weather with a west to northwest flow for June 14. The period June 15-17 presents occasional shower and thunderstorm chances with higher humidity – many details to be worked out here. Fair weather expected to return at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 19-23)

Leaning toward fair weather early to mid period and unsettled / humid weather later in the period, but there is a lot of inconsistency and uncertainty in medium range guidance so keeping the outlook very general at this point. The summer solstice occurs at 4:24 a.m. EDT on June 21.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 8-12)

High pressure sits centered over the St. Lawrence Valley / Upstate NY to start this week off, and this will provide our region with fair weather and a cooling north to northeast air flow today, and a rather cool night tonight as the high center crests overhead. As it slips off to the south Tuesday, a return flow from the west will warm us up off a cool start – so we’ll see about a 30-degree diurnal on average in much of the region (from 50s to 80s in general), though parts of the South Coast and Cape Cod will be cooler due to wind partially off the ocean water. We also get to enjoy another day of abundant sun and low humidity. After this, things change heading into late week. High pressure remains anchored to our south, just off the Mid Atlantic Coast, during midweek. This will increase our humidity and keep it quite warm. Meanwhile, a weak trough will approach from the west, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances to the region starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Thursday. This is not to say we end up with a day and a half of rain – far from it, in fact. During this time, two or three rounds of showers and storms are possible with the majority many hours free of any rainfall. If you have outdoor plans, you will want to keep track of what’s going on. This trough departs the region Thursday night. During Friday, while we have drier weather in place, a little push of high pressure extending from Atlantic Canada will cool coastal areas down while it is notably warmer over inland locations. This is a day 5 expectation, so check updates during the week just in case anything changes with this part of the outlook.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 67-74 I-95 belt / coast, 74-81 interior. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH especially east-facing shores.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog lower elevation locations. Lows 50-57. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 80-87 except 73-80 South Coats. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 57-64. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. A shower and thunderstorm chance in the afternoon and evening. Highs 81-88. Dew point climbs over 60. Wind SW to S around 10 MPH, could gusts to 15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower possible. Fog patches favoring interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and fair-weather clouds. Highs 75-82 coast, 83-90 inland. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 13-17)

High pressure to the south becomes more dominant for the June 13-14 weekend while a weak trough passes through the region June 13 with the slight chance of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, then a more notable cold front approaches later June 14 with a better shower / thunderstorm chance. Briefly fair after that, but unsettled weather chances increase with an approaching trough toward the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 18-22)

There’s some uncertainty remaining out this far in the prognostication attempt where we’ve seen mixed pattern signals and inconsistent guidance. In a general sense, I lean toward unsettled weather chances highest at start of and end of period with fair weather between. There may be a little bit of heat to say goodbye to astronomical spring and welcome the “official” start of summer over the June 20-21 weekend. The summer solstice occurs at 4:24 a.m. EDT on June 21.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 7-11)

After mainly rain-free daytime, other than a few showers, yesterday’s activity held off until last night when showers and some heavier thunderstorms moved across much of our region in response to a cold front. That front has now pushed through the region and offshore and some drier, slightly cooler (but still very mild) air will be with us today. We’ll have notably lower dew points than yesterday, making it feel more comfortable. However, low pressure still spins just to our north and northeast and it will be sending a lobe of instability southward this afternoon. When combined with the solar heating we receive this morning and midday, showers and a possibly a few thunderstorms will be the result, with the greatest chance from mid afternoon to early evening progressing north to south from the NH Seacoast region through eastern MA and RI, with the chance dropping off quickly in the western portions of the WHW forecast area. This activity pushes away and it clears out tonight with a push of cooler, dry air from eastern Canada. The orientation of high pressure will turn the wind northeast into Monday, making coastal areas coolest in what will be the coolest day of this period, but with fair and dry weather – sun and passing clouds. High pressure slips overhead Monday night then off to our south Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds shift to west Tuesday and southwest Wednesday and this means continued fair weather but the return of summer warmth. While most areas top 80 on Tuesday, many areas may approach and a few may reach or slightly exceed 90 by Wednesday. While I do expect a humidity increase by then, it should fall shy of reaching oppressive levels. By Thursday, a trough and weak front approach from the west while it is still very warm and moderately humid, and this will result in the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms developing.

TODAY: More sun than clouds this morning. More clouds than sun this afternoon including a good chance of showers and possible thunderstorms from north to south favoring eastern MA and RI. High 76-83. Dew point falls into 50s by day’s end. Wind W 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH, shifting to N by late day.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 53-60. Dew point falls toward 50. Wind N diminishing to around 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 67-74 I-95 belt / coast, 74-81 interior. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog lower elevation locations. Lows 48-55. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 but may turn cooler coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 54-61. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point may exceed 60. Wind SW up to 15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower possible. Fog patches favoring interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point around 65.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 12-16)

High pressure ridging is indicated to be the dominant feature aloft, which portends above normal temperatures. A very weak surface boundary and potential sea breeze boundary interactions can pop a shower or thunderstorm in a few places from June 12 through the June 13-14 weekend. Lower confidence later in the period but potential for showers may increase with the approach of a trough from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 17-21)

As we count down the final days of astronomical spring and head toward the summer solstice (4:24 a.m. EDT June 21), the weather pattern as indicated by guidance varies from model to model, not unexpectedly, but my general feel is that it will feature weak weather systems and an “almost block” or weak attempt at blocking which would be more typical closer to summer than earlier in springtime. We’ll have to watch where upper level low pressure is because one nearby could increase our wet weather potential for at least a portion of this period. Some guidance just keeps the pattern more progressive, so the jury is out here. What I don’t see indications of at this point are sustained heat or a very wet pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 6-10)

A preview of the classic summer pattern takes place today, i.e., high pressure off the Atlantic Coast, sending in higher humidity and very warm to hot air as a cold front approaching from the west ups the chance of showers and thunderstorms. However, the latter is not going to take the form of a squall line charging rapidly into the region before day’s end. A brief caveat before I go on about the storm threat. There’s a weak frontal boundary sitting over eastern MA into NH that has coastal areas from the South Shore of MA northward a little cooler, and this will somewhat delay the warming in these locations. Back to the storm threat. There may be an isolated shower or storm, mainly north of I-90, at some point this afternoon on a weak pre-frontal trough, while the main line of showers and thunderstorms, some of which can be severe, forms well to our west. The timing is such that we will be receiving remnants of this line later this evening, west to east across the region first to the north then further south as the line may have a kink in it. If this is the case, the majority of the WHW forecast area would receive a shower or storm after 9:00 p.m. (west) and after 10:00 p.m. (east). While the odds of damaging wind gusts reduce with the storms arriving well after max solar heating, I cannot rule out isolated occurrences of it. Any storms could also produce torrential rain, small hail, and frequent lightning, but again I feel this will be more of an isolated occurrence in one or two remaining cells in a decaying line. If you have evening plans, it’ll be important to stay weather-aware. After a quieter overnight, Sunday starts with some sunshine. While a cooler air mass will be moving in, it will still be a fairly warm day, just not as warm as today. Humidity comes down a bit. However, low pressure passing to our north sends a trough down our way and this can trigger additional showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon to early evening, from northwest to southeast across the region, which will move out of the region later at night. So, while the weekend can be characterized as “unsettled”, any given location will see rain-free conditions for many more hours than rain can occur. Canadian high pressure brings fair and cooler weather Monday, but as this high sinks to the south a warm-up will commence heading toward the middle of next week as dry weather continues. A trough approaching from the west can bring more clouds back later Wednesday, depending on timing.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible west and north of Boston after midday. Highs 86-93 except 78-85 South Coast. Dew point climbs into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm moves across many areas mid through late evening from west to east. Patchy fog forms. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH but could be briefly strong and gusty near any showers / storms.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A couple showers and thunderstorms probable, especially afternoon to early evening from northwest to southeast. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+ then falling below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH, but can be variable and gusty around any showers or storms.

SUNDAY NIGHT: A shower potential early, followed by clearing. Fog patches form in lower elevations late evening then dissipate overnight. Lows 53-60. Dew point falls through 50s. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog lower elevation locations. Lows 48-55. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 but may turn cooler coast. Wind SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 54-61. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW up to 15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 11-15)

Passing trough brings a shower and thunderstorm chance June 11 to early June 12, followed by high pressure dominating from later June 12 through the June 13-14 weekend with fair weather expected. Next disturbance and shower potential end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 16-20)

There’s been a little shift in the guidance to a more “opened up” pattern with less blocking and more progression, with a weak trough from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. If this trend is correct, our pattern for the final 5 days of astronomical spring would feature some temperatures variability but no major heat, and a couple shower / t-storm chances but no long-lasting periods of wet weather.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 5-9)

Surface high pressure to the south and an upper high pressure area overhead combine to give us another bright, very warm day today. Saturday’s conditions continue summery, but we see an increase in both cloud cover and humidity with the approach of an upper trough and surface front from the northwest. This surface and upper pair will progress through our region from Saturday night through Sunday night, bringing a period of unsettled weather, shifting wind, and eventually introducing a cooler air mass. The process looks a little different than was outline on yesterday’s update, mainly due to the front’s timing being slower and the surface wave traveling along it, originally expected to result in a cloudier, cooler Sunday, now tracking a little further north and holding the front back before pulling it through during the second half of Sunday. This allows for some sunshine for a number of hours on Sunday in a warmer air mass, allowing temperatures to be warmer than they’d have been in the previously-expected scenario. This changes the precipitation style from more widespread and stratiform to more convective and showery. I realize I just tossed a lot of info at you, so if you’re still wondering when the best chances of showers and possible thunderstorms are this weekend, here is your breakdown. The first shot comes Saturday afternoon, mainly north of I-90, but only isolated showers or thunderstorms would develop with a pre-frontal trough moving quickly through the region. The remains of a more solid line of showers and storms to the north and west makes a run at the region Saturday evening, with the most likely impact of any remaining activity taking place after sunset, with decreasing coverage from northwest to southeast. Another round of two of showers and possible thunderstorms could take place during Sunday, with odds favoring the afternoon and early evening hours based on current expected timing. Given the quick changes in the forecast for how this system acts as it goes through our region, I’d pay close attention to the next couple updates just to make sure it doesn’t have any other surprises in store for us this weekend. High pressure builds in with cooler, drier weather Monday, then sinks to the south with a warmer Tuesday following that, along with continued fair weather.

TODAY: Sun often filtered by high clouds. Highs 77-84 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere but can turn cooler near the shoreline. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible west and north of Boston after midday. Highs 86-93 except 78-85 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH but could be gusty near any showers / storms.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A couple showers and thunderstorms probable, especially afternoon to early evening. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, can be stronger near any storms.

SUNDAY NIGHT: A shower potential early, followed by clearing. Fog patches form in lower elevations late evening then dissipate overnight. Lows 53-60. Dew point falls through 50s. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy fog lower elevation locations. Lows 48-55. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind W up to 10 MPH but potential for coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 10-14)

While there is an “attempt” at blocking of the omega-style in the upper pattern, it doesn’t have the organization or strength as the previous version. The orientation is further east as well. This allows high pressure to sink south of us with a quick warm-up by the middle of next week before a trough brings a shower & thunderstorm threat about June 11. Late week expectations are for high pressure to return with fair weather, briefly cooler then warming up again. Obviously, confidence in this scenario lowers with time, so catch updates.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 15-19)

Moving through mid month and into the final days of astronomical spring, the large scale pattern indications are for a weak high pressure ridge near or just west of our region to allow a trough or two to swing through. The latter would bring brief unsettled weather threats while the former would keep the overall pattern dry and seasonably mild to warm. I can’t rule out a cooler shot if one of the disturbances is stronger or high pressure to the north sends cooler air down from Atlantic Canada, and I’ll watch for both.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 4-8)

A flattening of the upper level flow due to a weakening of the blocking pattern that has been in place, along with surface high pressure to our south, allows for fair and much warmer weather today, Friday, and pretty much for the entire region during the daylight hours of Saturday as well. On Saturday, however, higher humidity combined with the approach of a frontal boundary from the northwest will open the door for the potential for an isolated shower or thunderstorm well west and/or north of Boston by late in the day. The shower threat becomes more likely by later Saturday night and especially Sunday as a cold front slowly crosses the region and we also get a trough moving through the region, inducing a weak wave of low pressure along the front. So Sunday’s profile is unsettled and turning cooler, making Saturday the easy weekend pick for outdoor activities. By Monday, the disturbance has exited and the frontal boundary is pulled offshore with cooler and drier air being delivered by high pressure in eastern Canada.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere but can turn cooler near the shoreline. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere but can turn cooler near the shoreline. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches overnight. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm well north and west of Boston by late-day. Highs 86-93 except 78-85 South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the evening. Showers and patchy fog overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 71-78. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Showers end. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Dew point falls through 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing sun. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 9-13)

Omega block configuration returns, but weaker than the previous version and also displaced further east, with our region between a further-offshore trough and a ridge in the Midwest and Great Lakes. This allows for a quicker warm-up heading into the middle of next week and only a minor unsettled weather threat later in the week as a weakening disturbance approaches the region from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 14-18)

More shifting of the upper pattern as upper level low pressure sinks to the south off the Mid Atlantic Coast and high pressure shifts from the Great Lakes toward the Northeast while a trough settles into the Midwest / Plains. This pattern indicates near to above normal temperatures and slightly better shower and t-storm chances, but is still a fairly dry pattern overall for our region.