DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

A mini blocking set-up leads to an encounter with an anomalous low pressure area which will give us a significant rain event today and tonight as the low, currently occluding over NY, drifts eastward just south of southern New England initially, sending a band of moderate to heavy rainfall including embedded thunderstorms northeastward across our region today, starting in CT and RI this morning and reaching southern NH this afternoon. Given the tight low pressure area initially, there exists in the lower atmosphere some wind shear that could enable a couple of the individual convective cells to gain some rotation. This set-up is not incapable of producing brief, relatively weak tornadoes. This, if it occurred, would be an isolated instance somewhere in eastern CT, RI, or adjacent south central to southeastern MA. The potential is there enough to mention the possibility of damaging wind gusts, but the greater potential for the region is most definitely heavy rainfall and areas of flooding, although in general the rain will be beneficial for reducing the longer term deficit. As briefly strong as this low pressure area gets, during the end of its maturing process it will drift into southern New England early Thursday but start to weaken steadily. This will keep us cloudy and showery but without the heavy rainfall of today. Obviously, with a general onshore flow from the Atlantic from the east to northeast these days, our temperatures will run cooler than the seasonal averages for late July. Finally, the low pulls away to the east on Friday, and other than the chance of a quick-hitting pop-up shower, we’ll see drier air start to erode the cloud cover with a clearing trend getting underway. High pressure builds into our region for a great weekend to begin the month of August, although as the high slides to the east you may notice an up-tick in the humidity by Sunday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers and potential thunderstorms with heavy downpours likely – starting out eastern CT into RI and MA South Coast then lifting north northeast across the region as time goes on. Areas of fog, particularly this morning and then again later in the day favoring eastern coastal locations. Highs 66-73. Dew point 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast, and also the slight risk of isolated damaging wind gusts near any of the stronger convective cells embedded in the rain area.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers and drizzle likely. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 67-74. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NE.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Becoming partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 73-80. Dew point falls under 60. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls toward 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point rises to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

A more “typical” west to east flow. A frontal system moves through with a shower and t-storm chance on August 3. High pressure builds in behind that with fair weather, but humidity increases later in the week and with a trough approaching from the west we may see a few more shower and t-storms around toward the end of the period. Temperatures more in line for what would be expected in early August.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

A couple opportunities for showers and t-storms, but overall pattern features more dry than wet time. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Much of the region is covered in a stratus cloud deck to start today out due to increased low level moisture on a light southerly air flow, which is taking place as a trough of low pressure approaches. Surface low pressure to our west will redevelop over the northern Mid Atlantic tonight and then wheel its way toward southern New England while rapidly maturing and occluding, becoming quasi-stationary as it then begins to weaken through Thursday, finally drifting off to our east during the day on Friday. This evolution means a period of unsettled weather, beginning with a shower and t-storm chance mainly west of Boston later today, peaking Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday with the most widespread and heavier shower and embedded thunderstorm activity takes place, but slow to wind down with lingering showers perhaps until early Friday. Any rain we do receive is, of course, beneficial since we remain in a long term precipitation deficit. Hey! August 1 is day 5! And that’s the first day of the first weekend of the final month of meteorological summer. And you know what? It looks like great weather will have returned by then as high pressure builds in!

TODAY: Low clouds break for partial sun in some areas during this morning. Clouds return west to east midday on with a shower and thunderstorm chance increasing west of the I-95 belt by later in the day. Highs 76-83. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers and potential thunderstorms with heavy downpours likely – starting out most likely west of I-95 and south of I-90 then progressing northeastward during the day. Areas of fog. Highs 66-73. Dew point 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lingering showers and drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Patchy drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 67-74. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 73-80. Dew point falls under 60. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls toward 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

August 2 looks dry with high pressure in control. Weather pattern after that leans toward a more humid southwesterly air flow with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms at times, but not excessively wet. Temperatures generally around seasonal averages but may go above normal by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

A couple opportunities for showers and t-storms, but overall pattern features more dry than wet time. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 27-31)

As we had down the home stretch of July, these final 5 days throw quite a bit of weather at our region. This may be a standard work week for some, and a vacation week for others. If it’s the latter, you’ll unfortunately have to deal with some wet weather and below average temperatures. Step-by-step, here’s how we get there, and how long it may hang around: Today we start out with a fairly nice day as weak high pressure slowly drifts away to our northeast. An offshore low pressure area has helped to bring in enough Atlantic moisture for some scattered to broken stratus cloud cover across southeastern MA, and this will pull out during the day today. Meanwhile, we will start to feel the first effects of a low pressure trough approaching from the west. A disturbance working its way into western New England, combined with a little more moisture moving in from the south, can help trigger a few afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms over western New England, and a few of these may get closer to the western reaches of the WHW forecast area – basically the Connecticut Valley. Otherwise, today will be rain-free, and any of those showers and storms that make it that far east will dissipate with the setting sun, which will start to be interrupted by an increase in cloudiness which then continues overnight into Tuesday, a day which will feature increased humidity and shower / thunderstorm chances as low pressure moves through the Great Lakes. Low pressure is set to redevelop with a digging low pressure trough into the Mid Atlantic by Wednesday, and this system is going to bring us a cool and rather wet period of weather Wednesday into Thursday as it slowly wheels through the region. Some beneficial rainfall seems in the cards, but if bands of heavier rain occur, they can result in some flooding issues, so we’ll have to keep an eye on that. I expect the low pressure area to pull away from the region with improving weather Friday, but there can still be a pop-up shower or thunderstorm on the back side of the system with lingering instability.

TODAY: Variably cloudy – least sun southeastern MA this morning and interior areas later in the day with a stray shower or thunderstorm possible late in the day, mainly close to the CT Valley. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point heads for 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily midday and afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point surpasses 60. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 67-74. Dew point near 65. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lingering showers and drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 73-80. Dew point falls under 60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)

August 1-2 weekend looks mainly dry with high pressure in control. First half of next week can see higher humidity and shower / t-storm chances. Temperatures generally around seasonal averages.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)

A couple opportunities for showers and t-storms, but overall pattern features more dry than wet time. Temperatures generally seasonable.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 26-30)

High pressure remains in control enough to give us another rain-free and pleasantly low humidity day to finish off the weekend. However, with the high center to our north, a light east to northeasterly flow will persist, and this is carrying just enough maritime moisture in for a deck of broken stratus clouds over Cape Cod. This will limit the sun at times there for at least a portion of the day, and combined with the onshore flow, this area will be your coolest section of the WHW region today. We’ll also see a few high clouds across the western sky on the edge of a weakening disturbance to our west. But overall, a very nice Sunday is today’s weather theme! Moving into the coming week, the guidance has struggled depicting the evolution of the pattern, but I’m starting to see enough consistency for a somewhat clearer picture, and this does lead to an adjustment to my outlook as well, with a more consolidated but still rather drawn out period of unsettled weather upcoming. Before that, we squeak in one more fair weather day Monday, however an increase in high clouds will be noted ahead of a warm front extending from low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. The difference in expectation is now explained: Previously, my favored solution was for unsettled weather focused on Tuesday and again Thursday from two separate systems with a short break between. The trend has been for a slower arrival of the first one and an overall combination of the two disturbed weather areas into more of a single, but drawn-out evolution that centers around initial low pressure in the Great Lakes during Tuesday, then redeveloping over the Mid Atlantic and wheeling its way to a position just south of New England on Wednesday, then lifting through the region while weakening on Thursday. This would result in a 3-day unsettled weather stretch, the wettest on Wednesday when we also have a moderate onshore flow, with the other two days featuring a more showery set-up, including the chance of thunderstorms. There is still quite a bit of refining to do on the details with that system, which will be done over the next few updates of this blog. I also add new thoughts in the comments after each day’s post, so feel free to check those if you don’t typically do so. And since I mentioned it, if you have never commented on the blog before and would like to, all you have to do is choose a name to go by and enter an email address (nobody sees the email, on your username). Your first comment goes into moderation for me to approve. So long as you continue to use the same username and email you can continue to comment. WordPress will send one with any differences in username and/or email back to moderation, as it’s quite picky about that, so if you do change it, be patient as sometimes it takes a while for me to get to the moderation folder during my busy days. 🙂 Now, onto the rest of the forecast…

TODAY: Cape Cod clouds limit the sun at times. Plenty of sun elsewhere. Highs 70-75 Islands / Outer Cape Cod, 76-81 elewhere. Dew point in 50s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point heads for 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point surpasses 60. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 67-74. Dew point near 65. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lingering showers and drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

A pop-up shower or t-storm possible July 31 on the western periphery of departing low pressure, otherwise dry weather returns and persists through the August 1-2 weekend. Higher humidity along with afternoon shower and t-storm chances August 3-4.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)

Shower and t-storm chances early and again late period but overall pattern looks mostly rain-free with generally seasonable temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 25-29)

High pressure brings fair and comfortable weather this weekend along with low humidity and ocean breezes. Sunday’s coastal breeze will be a little cooler than today’s, but still a pleasant day by seaside, or basically anywhere you plan to be. The high starts to depart Monday while a trough moves into the Midwest and Great Lakes, along with a surface low. The warm front extending out from this low will start to increase our cloud cover during Monday, but as with yesterday’s outlook I still expect the daylight hours to remain dry before we watch for the first chances of showers sometime that night ahead of the front. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature more unsettled weather as the trough moves through. The behavior of low pressure will determine more detail and this is something to-be-determined over the next few days. For now, similar to last week, I’m leaning toward a warm frontal passage and showery weather Tuesday, and a cold frontal passage with a shower and thunderstorm chance Wednesday. There is some chance that this time we do see the development of a new low pressure area a little further to the south, which would change the game somewhat. I’m not nearly confident at this point that this will take place, so the forecast wording is generalized for days 4 and 5 at this time and will be refined as the picture becomes clearer. In the mean time, enjoy a stellar weekend!

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point heads for 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point surpasses 60. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Additional troughing brings shower and thunderstorm chances for July 30 but it now appears that this will move quickly enough to bring drier weather for the final day of July and the opening day of August before the next trough, a weaker one, returns a shower and thunderstorm chance to our region August 2-3. With lower confidence at the end of the 5-day period, it follows that this outlook is also not the highest confidence one, but just a general idea of how it would be expected to play out.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)

Shower and t-storm chances early and again late period but overall pattern looks mostly rain-free with generally seasonable temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 24-28)

High pressure provides great mid summer weather from today through this coming weekend with plenty of sunshine each day, low humidity, and generally light winds including coastal sea breezes, and temperatures that run near to slightly below normal. Things change as we get into the beginning of next week when a trough approaches from the west. While Monday’s daylight hours look generally dry, we’ll see increasing clouds ahead of a warm front extending from low pressure moving out of the Midwest. A larger scale trough will be moving into the Great Lakes and Northeast later Monday through Tuesday, and the aforementioned low will bring increased shower and thunderstorm chances Monday night and Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point heads for 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point surpasses 60. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Timing of a trough moving through the region keeps shower chances into the first part of July 29 before drier weather returns. Another shower or thunderstorm chance comes along in the July 30-31 window, otherwise mostly fair weather and generally near normal temperatures are expected as we move from July to August.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 3-7)

Fair weather early in the period before shower and thunderstorm chances and higher humidity return. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 23-27)

This morning, the last hints of yesterday’s unsettled weather linger over Outer Cape Cod and the Islands with a blanket of clouds and a few showers, but this will slide off to the east early in the day and the the mainly sunny sky over the remainder of the region as the sun climbs the eastern sky will overtake that area as well. We may see some passing fair weather clouds and also you may notice a little bit of a hazy look from some high altitude smoke, but this layer is rather diffuse and not anywhere close to the surface, so its impact on today will be negligible, and you can enjoy plenty of sun, a nice breeze, and lower humidity. High pressure will sit atop our region Friday through the weekend with fantastic mid summer / late July weather – lots of sun each day, light wind with coastal sea breezes, and continued low humidity. Monday, clouds start to return as the next trough in a series moves out of the Midwest and surface low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, its warm front approaching our region. As the clouds increase, the shower chance follows by later in the day.

TODAY: Early clouds and a few showers Islands / Outer Cape Cod, otherwise sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior low elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day shower chances. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Shower and thunderstorm chances July 28 and July 30-31 with troughs passing through the region. Much of the time will be rain-free. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)

Fair weather early in the period before shower and thunderstorm chances and higher humidity return. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 22-26)

A humid air mass has invaded our region as a warm front passed through late yesterday to early today with widespread rainfall including some heavier thunderstorms. That activity has now exited, and as low pressure passes to our north today, its cold front has to cross the region. While available moisture is there at the surface and solar heating will be present as the warm frontal clouds and areas of fog clear out, a push of drier air at mid levels will limit shower and thunderstorm coverage to generally isolated to scattered along a line pushing eastward through the region during the afternoon to early evening hours. An additional batch of showers may visit RI and southeastern MA later tonight / early Thursday morning as the front slows while exiting the region. After that, high pressure builds toward the region with a drier northwesterly breeze and nice summer weather on Thursday. High pressure then sits over our area from Friday through the weekend with stellar late July weather – lots of sun, low humidity, and daily coastal sea breezes.

TODAY: A first-thing-in-the-morning shower over Outer Cape Cod, otherwise lots of clouds and areas of fog give way to a sun/cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible from west to east this afternoon to early evening. Highs 80-87 but a bit cooler South Coast. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible especially around any showers and storms.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds southeastern MA & RI with a shower chance. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 61-68. Dew point lowers to near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 79-86. Dew point in 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior low elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 27-31)

Shower and thunderstorm chances July 27-28 and July 30-31 with troughs passing through the region. Much of the time will be rain-free, however. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 1-5)

Fair weather early to mid period before shower and thunderstorm chances and higher humidity return later in the period. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 21-25)

A trough of low pressure will traverse the Northeast between today and early Thursday, with its associated surface low pressure area passing to our north. A warm front will approach the region today with thickening cloudiness and eventually showery weather later today through most of tonight, including some embedded heavier thunderstorms. The greatest opportunity for heavier rainfall appears to be mostly from the I-90 belt southward, but I am not expecting any severe thunderstorms to occur. We’ll see that activity exit off the coast by morning with a mix of sun and clouds and higher humidity Wednesday. As a cold front approaches, we’ll see the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms in one or two clusters or lines in the afternoon, although coverage may not be widespread. The character of the storms will be determined by how much clearing / sunshine there is to help destabilize the atmosphere and fire up the storms. Once the storms form, they can at least partially dictate their own motion through outflow boundaries and such features. I do think the majority of the activity by late afternoon and early evening will be near or east of I-95 as the frontal boundary should advance far enough for that to happen, and then anything that remains should fade rather quickly with the setting sun. However, the front will be slowing and still over southeastern MA / RI into Thursday morning, when additional showers may occur. After that, it pulls offshore. So the trend is for fair weather to return on Thursday then continue into the start of the weekend as high pressure builds in, providing pleasant weather including lower humidity.

TODAY: Clouds thicken. Showers arrive mid to late afternoon from west to east. Highs 75-82. Dew point rises into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH South Coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers and thunderstorms likely, tapering off west to east pre-dawn. Lows 62-69. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms lingering into early evening southeastern MA & RI. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 60s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds southeastern MA & RI with a shower chance. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 61-68. Dew point lowers to near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Morning clouds with additional showers possible RI and southeastern MA, then clearing. Elsewhere, mostly sunny. Highs 79-86. Dew point in 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior low elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 26-30)

Shower and thunderstorm chances July 27-28 with a passing trough and again very late in the period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal. No major heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Shower / t-storm chances early in the period (July 31), then a stretch of mainly fair weather to start August before shower / t-storm chances return late period. Temperatures not too far from normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 20-24)

High pressure brings fair weather today, but you’ll notice a hazier look to the sky from both high clouds and high altitude smoke making a return. A trough and low pressure area will bring us unsettled weather Tuesday into Wednesday. Surface low pressure passes to our north during this time, and its warm front will thicken the cloud cover Tuesday leading to showers and embedded thunderstorms, heaviest in southern areas, later Tuesday and especially Tuesday night. The cold front trailing the passing low will move across the region during Wednesday with a couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. We’ll experience a bout of high humidity later Tuesday well into Wednesday until the front moves through, at which time we’ll see the humidity begin to lower again. Thursday and Friday will be fair and seasonable as high pressure builds into the region, with breezy conditions Thursday and less wind but with coastal sea breezes on Friday.

TODAY: Hazy sunshine with high altitude smoke. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Hazy. Lows 60-67. Dew point climbs toward 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Hazy. Shower chances increase. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms until mid afternoon but may linger until early evening in southeastern MA and RI. Highs 77-84. Dew point in 60s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 79-86. Dew point in 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior low elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 25-29)

Fair weather early period and end of period. Showers / thunderstorm chances with higher humidity in the July 27-28 time frame. Temperatures near to slightly below normal. No major heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Shower / t-storm chances eyed July 30-31 otherwise mostly fair weather will be the rule. Temperatures somewhat variable but overall pretty close to normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 19-23)

A cold front moves offshore this morning, taking a band of clouds that lingers over southeastern MA / RI with it. Also the smoke shield that was over our region yesterday still covers the region from I-90 southward as of sunrise but will also be pushed off to the south today. Other than some patchy stratocumulus clouds around this morning to midday, I expect today to turn out sunny with a nice blue sky, a refreshing breeze, low humidity, and after a bit of a cool feel to the air to start, a warmer afternoon. You can’t get much nicer a day than this in the middle of July in New England, so enjoy it if you can do so! High pressure provides fair and comfortable weather for Monday. The next trough from the west approaches Tuesday and passes through our region Tuesday night into Wednesday. This brings our next round of unsettled weather as surface low pressure passes to the north. Its warm front brings in a shower threat and higher humidity by later Tuesday, before its cold front sends a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The question is how quickly the cold front moves through, ending the threat, and returning drier air to the region. Guidance trends show this may happen by mid afternoon Wednesday. Regardless of the timing of Wednesday unsettled weather’s ending, high pressure brings very nice summer weather to the region Thursday.

TODAY: Early clouds exit southeastern MA & RI as smoke departs southern areas leading to a mainly sunny day with a few passing clouds. Highs 79-86. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevation areas. Lows 58-65. Dew point 50s. Wind drops to calm.

MONDAY: Hazy sunshine with high altitude smoke. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Potential high altitude smoke. Lows 60-67. Dew point climbs toward 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Hazy. Shower chances increases. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms until mid afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point in 60s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 79-86. Dew point in 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 24-28)

Fair weather is expected to dominate for several days with a shower / t-storm threat returning toward the end of the period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal. No major heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Shower / t-storm chances eyed July 30-31 otherwise mostly fair weather will be the rule. Temperatures somewhat variable but overall pretty close to normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 18-22)

The next plume of Canadian wildfire smoke arrives today. While this plume will not be as dense as the one we experience at midweek, it will play some role in the reduction of visibility and may be detectable by smell for some. It won’t be as prominently visible overall due to the fact that we have low pressure passing to our north, and its warm front spreading a pretty extensive cloud shield into our region too. So while we have some limited sunshine in spots this morning, it will turn out to be a fairly sunless day, and the warm front will cause a round or two of showers to move through the region during this afternoon. Guidance ranges from a few hours of rain to just a brief bout of showers. I think what we see is somewhere in between, but I do think a fair percentage of the region will see the ground turn wet for a while between noon and 6 p.m. before we briefly enter the “warm sector” of the low and get a break. The low’s cold front will then cross our region this evening and tonight, with a pretty solid band of showers and thunderstorms. The greatest potential for stronger storms lies southwest of our region, but within the WHW forecast area some of the more notable activity would most likely be south of I-90. The short-range guidance (a few models) have been somewhat divergent on the exact timing of the heaviest activity. Currently, I’m leaning toward just after dark north and west, and a little later evening (after 10 p.m. to overnight) from the Boston-Providence corridor southeastward. Best plan is to monitor radar in real time if you have plans that involve travel or being outside, and as always check appropriate web pages etc. for updates on cancellations or postponements. The good news is that any rain we get is beneficial. The other good news is that Sunday will be a spectacular day. The front will have moved offshore pre-dawn, and we’ll be into an air mass similar to the one we experienced yesterday, mild air, low humidity, no rain, lots of sun, and smoke pushed back out of the region. High pressure dominates Monday, but we may see some smoke make a return to us at higher altitudes returning the hazy look to the sky. Another low pressure area will be passing to our north after that with current expectations being warm frontal rains on Tuesday and cold frontal showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, with timing and details to-be-determined.

TODAY: Smoke & haze. Clouds increase. A period of showers crossing the region west to east this afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point rises toward 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. A period of showers and thunderstorms west to east mid evening to after midnight, with some embedded downpours. A strong thunderstorm possible closer to the South Coast. Fog patches form late at night. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH which can be variable and gusty near any storms, shifting to W from west to east overnight.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 79-86. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevation areas. Lows 58-65. Dew point 50s. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Hazy sunshine with high altitude smoke. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Potential high altitude smoke. Lows 60-67. Dew point climbs toward 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Hazy. Shower chances increases. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point in 60s. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 23-27)

Fair weather is expected to dominate for several days with a shower / t-storm threat returning at the end of the period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal. No major heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Shower / t-storm chances eyed for July 28 and July 30-31. Temperatures somewhat variable but overall pretty close to normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)

Cleaner air from eastern Canada is with us today before some of the wildfire smoke plume to our south makes a comeback tonight into Saturday, before being pushed out again. High pressure dominates today. Low pressure passes north of our region this weekend. Its warm front will bring a round of showers Saturday afternoon, and it looks like the steadiest / heaviest rainfall will be south of I-90 from that front. Later at night, a cold front sweeps through with a round of showers and thunderstorms – quicker timing than previously expected. But, this means great weather returns for the day on Sunday, and there should be a reduction of smoke again, though we’ll watch for yet another come back of that by early next week. Speaking of early next week, I expect fair weather Monday with high pressure in control, followed by higher humidity and shower / thunderstorm chances later Tuesday as the next trough and frontal system arrives from the west.

TODAY: Abundant sun. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High clouds move in and high altitude smoke returns. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds increase. High altitude smoke remains. Showers in the afternoon will be most prominent from I-90 southward, but a brief period of them is also possible to the north. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm late evening to early overnight from west to east. Fog patches late. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 79-86. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevation areas. Lows 58-65. Dew point 50s. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Sunshine, but potential high altitude smoke. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Potential high altitude smoke. Lows 60-67. Dew point climbs toward 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Hazy. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase later in the day. Highs 80-87. Dew point climbs through 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)

Shower / t-storm chances greatest mid period with a system moving through from west to east. Otherwise mostly dry. Temperatures near normal, though somewhat variable.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)

Shower / t-storm chances early period and period, with fair weather between. Temperatures near normal but somewhat variable.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)

The thickest wildfire smoke plume drifted south of our area late yesterday and continues there today, but some of that smoke will make a come-back as we move through the day today, so while the sun is not “browned out” like much of yesterday, you’ll still notice a smoky haze in the sky with a tendency for it to become more noticeable as the day goes on. A cold front will drop southward from northern New England and can trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in southern NH and mainly northeastern MA from mid afternoon to early evening, but I’m not expecting widespread coverage from this activity, which will quickly fade as the sun sets. The front will move through the region and bring a cooler and drier air mass into the region on Friday, but as upper winds turn more westerly again we’ll see a late-day increase in both high clouds and high altitude smoke again on Friday. Unlike yesterday, I’m not expecting much smoke to get near the surface with the exception of a portion of this evening to early Friday mainly southwest of Boston before everything gets pushed to the south. Additional high altitude smoke is likely to be in the sky this weekend, though it may be obscured by quite a bit more cloudiness on Saturday as a warm front approaches from a low pressure area now destined to pass fairly far to our north early Sunday. Trying to figure out the track and behavior of this system leading up to this has been a challenge, but I do think it brings only a brief chance for a little rainfall on Saturday with the passage of its warm front, with most of the shower and possible thunderstorm activity occurring late Saturday night and early Sunday morning with its cold front, followed by a return to fair weather during the day on Sunday, with high pressure building in behind the front, continuing to provide fair weather through Monday as well.

TODAY: Sun becomes hazy due to high altitude smoke returning. Isolated thunderstorms mid afternoon to early evening southern NH and northeastern MA. Highs 81-88. Dew point nearing 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH with gusts 20+ MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds depart but high altitude smoke thickens with pockets of near-surface smoke possible, especially west and south of Boston. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Brighter sun returns. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds increase. Chance of a shower. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm late night west to east. Fog patches late. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early clouds and lingering showers eastern areas, then lots of sun. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevation areas. Lows 58-65. Dew point 50s. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

Shower / t-storm chances greatest July 21, 23, 24. Overall pattern mainly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

Shower / t-storm chances greatest mid period. Still mainly dry overall. Temperatures near normal but somewhat variable.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)

You’re now well aware that the smoke plume from Canada / Minnesota wildfires was squeezed and thickened by the jet stream, presenting much more impactfully in our region yesterday than predicted – enough to hold forecast high temperature down by several degrees, with virtual no 90+ readings in the WHW forecast area. The same will be true today and even part of Thursday, though no widespread 90+ readings were expected Thursday anyway. We’ll also see a reduction in humidity as a series of cold fronts drop through the region behind low pressure in eastern Canada, and breezy weather here between that low and high pressure to our south. We do run the chance of a quick-hitting shower or thunderstorm with the final front in the series in southern NH and eastern MA later Thursday, but that’s about it other than any early morning showers (remnants of thunderstorms) that pass through southern NH and eastern MA basically as I write this blog update. I don’t even think we’ll see much of anything trigger south of I-90 today as I had previously been expecting – maybe an isolated shower toward the South Coast should be about it. Friday’s set to be a less smoky, pleasant day with a nice northerly air flow and low humidity. Our weekend is still a little questionable. I’d been leaning toward more trough in eastern Canada deflecting an incoming disturbance to our southwest, but guidance is fighting me on this with its trend for a more northeastward track for the low. Ultimately, my estimation of eastern Canadian troughing was probably overcooked, but maybe so much so that the low coming our way will pass so far to the north, all we end up having to deal with are a couple of shower and t-storm threats from a warm frontal passage Saturday and a cold frontal passage Sunday. Obviously, timing and details are still in the process of being worked out, so generic wording today will hopefully be followed by more distinctive wording on the next update.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Considerable high to mid altitude smoke. Passing plumes of near-surface smoke. Possible shower / t-storm very early southern NH / northeastern MA. Isolated South Coast shower later. Highs 83-90, cooler parts of Cape Cod / Islands. Dew point drops below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

TONIGHT: Smoke / haze. Patchy clouds. Lows 62-69. Dew point sub-60. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke / haze thins. Partly cloudy. A late-day t-storm possible southern NH / eastern MA. Highs 82-89. Dew point sub-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, except 75-82 some coastal areas of eastern MA / Cape Cod. Dew point 50s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds increase. Chance of a shower. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Chance of a shower. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)

Shower / t-storm chances greatest July 21, 23, 24. Overall pattern mainly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)

Shower / t-storm chances greatest mid period. Still mainly dry overall. Temperatures near normal but somewhat variable.