DAYS 1-5 (JULY 6-10)

This week starts with complex set-up that brings the chance for a wide-ranging rainfall event. The frontal boundary that went by over the weekend, ending our hot spell, sits just to our south. A couple of low pressure areas will move eastward along it today into Tuesday, the first of the two producing most of the rain south of I-90 but also bringing the potential for some narrow bands of more intense rainfall, and the second one bring a more general rain / drizzle producer across more of the region tonight into Tuesday. Precipitation amounts in a general sense will be lightest north of I-90 and heaviest from I-90 southward. There can be a few limited areas that see in excess of 3 inches, but a 1 to 3 inch rainfall is expected in those southern areas in general, with up to around 1 inch to the north. As the second low consolidates and intensifies a little through Tuesday, we’ll see enhanced wind near the South Coast, but you’ll notice it a bit breezy elsewhere in the region too. Finally this system moves away by early Wednesday with any lingering showers / drizzle tapering off and ending from west to east. Wednesday looks like a nice day as high pressure builds in with the return of sunshine and a nice warm-up, but fairly low humidity. This continues Thursday with modest humidity but a little dash of heat with some areas peaking around 90. This is not a return to the high heat of last week, and will also be short-lived, as a cold front moves in on Friday bringing lots of clouds, capping the heat, but spiking the humidity along with a shower and thunderstorm threat.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain, some heavy at times, mainly south of I-90, with a chance of a few periods of rain to the north. Highs 68-75. Dew point rises to 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Rain, heavy at times evening South Coast to I-90, increasing rain chances to the north. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periodic rain with areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 67-74. Dew point in 60s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH with higher gusts South Coast / Cape Cod.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain / drizzle ends west to east. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point around 60. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds southeastern MA, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point under 60. Wind N shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)

July 11-12 weekend looks mainly dry other than a possible pop-up shower in southern areas on July 11. Lower humidity / seasonable temperatures expected those days. Humidity and warmth increase early next week with a shower and thunderstorm chance (especially around July 14), before fair weather returns.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)

Overall pattern fairly seasonable but a little temperature variability with one or two shower / t-storm chances with passing fronts from the west.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)

The hot air mass of the last several days has been pushed out of the region by a cold front. We’ll have quite a nice Sunday as high pressure in eastern Canada sends lower humidity our way. There will be more clouds to the south as the front that went by slows down and comes to a stop off the South Coast, but it will be a rain-free day and rather pleasant in comparison to what we went through since midweek. However, now we have to keep an eye on an area of low pressure set to track slowly along that frontal boundary. While we’ll be seeing even cooler air on Monday and Tuesday, we’ll see it becoming rather cloudy with our rain chances increasing, first to the south on Monday while areas to the north stay drier, and then across all of the region on Tuesday, when some beneficial rainfall is expected. The low pressure wave will shift to the east on Wednesday when we’ll see improvement, and then high pressure will build in with the return of fair and seasonably warm July weather by Thursday.

TODAY: Most sun southern NH / northern MA. More limited sun southern MA / eastern CT / RI. Highs 81-88, coolest eastern coastal areas to Cape Cod. Dew point below 60. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point nearing 60. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers mainly South Coast to I-90 belt. Highs 72-79. Dew point around or just over 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers becoming widespread from south to north. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SE to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely, some heavy. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH possible especially south of I-90.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers diminish. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A shower possible especially south of I-90 early. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point in 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point in 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)

Brief shot of heat and humidity including the chance of showers and thunderstorms on July 10 as a cold front moves through by nighttime. Fair, lower humidity expected for the July 11-12 weekend. Increasing humidity and shower chances come later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)

Overall pattern features west to east flow with a few passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm opportunities, but no prolonged unsettled weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

Happy 250th to the USA! While I think the majority of locations planning fireworks celebrations this evening will get them in without much difficulty, mother nature may try to put on her own fireworks show in some locations. It’ll come down to the details of thunderstorm development and movement of storms as we move through afternoon into evening. I’m still of the opinion that the majority of our region will deal with little or no significant activity, but there can be some scattered heavier showers and storms around, primarily from mid afternoon to very early evening from north to south. Some short range guidance has indicated a couple additional showers and storms can be in the region into early tonight, but I’m leaning away from this information being correct, as I have seen quite a few similar errors in this guidance of late (some of it is still in experimental mode). So I’ll lean optimistic for the evening hours when we start to see an air mass change from the hot and fairly humid one we’ve had into a less hot and less humid one that will make our Sunday quite nice. After that we turn our attention to the front that went by, as it will slow down and come to a stop just south of our region and be the focus for an area of low pressure moving along it early next week. Based on current expectation, I think our greatest chance to see additional rainfall will be south of I-90 on Monday and more widespread in the region for Tuesday. This should taper off with just a few lingering showers Wednesday as the low pressure wave departs. Tomorrow’s blog update will focus a little more on the Monday through Wednesday time frame. In the mean time, stay cool, hydrated, and safe today!

TODAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, greatest chance being west of I-95 and south of I-90. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 parts of Cape Cod / Islands. Dew point 60s. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH shifts to NW late-day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a shower or thunderstorm possible early mainly RI / eastern CT. Clearing overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point drops to 50s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point sub-60. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Possible showers South Coast. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Showers possible South Coast evening then anywhere overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers diminish. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A shower possible especially south of I-90 early. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

A warm shot early period then a cold front may cause a thunderstorm and introduce a more seasonable air mass mid period before warmth and humidity and shower / t-storm chances return later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

Overall pattern features west to east flow with a few passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm opportunities, but no prolonged unsettled weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

COMMENTARY

Most of yesterday’s high temps in the region were in the middle to upper 90s. There were a couple locations that “officially” touched 100, though Boston’s sensor accuracy is in question so their 100 was likely a 99 (and won’t be corrected). They hit 100+ last summer (June 24) and some media is wailing how rare it is to see a 100-degree reading two summers in a row. Yes, statistically it’s fairly rare, but even more rare was the time it hit 100+ FOUR times in the same summer: 1911. There are always anomalies in stats driven by something with a significant chaos factor. That’s just how it works. Anyway, just keeping it real as always. On we go!

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

Our hot stretch continues for two more days, though tomorrow, Independence Day, is a transition day. Today we remain under high pressure aloft with high pressure at the surface to our south and a generally westerly air flow of high heat and fairly high humidity. Again a west northwest wind coming off the hills can dry out the coastal plain at time – which is what helped launch Boston’s temp toward the century mark yesterday – the dew point which had be in the lower 70s just hours before had fallen to the mid 60s. Watch for that again today, although officially I am not forecasting anybody to hit 100 – just many 90s. If the wind lightens up enough, feeble coastal sea breezes can occur, but for the most part, we’ll be looking at a land breeze and very hot weather. Parts of Cape Cod and of course Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard are more exposed to ocean influence so it won’t be quite as hot there, obviously. It will be rain-free today, in general, but I cannot rule out a pop-up isolated air mass thunderstorm today and a passing storm somewhere this evening or tonight with a weak disturbance coming through in the northwest flow aloft. Our transition out of the hot spell takes place on the Saturday holiday as a cold front drops through the region. My current thought is that a pre-frontal trough will trigger initial shower and thunderstorm activity as early as late morning into midday, with the threat of this activity lasting through mid afternoon north of I-90 then shifting to the south mid afternoon to very early evening. Cells may be more numerous the further west you are, and less so further east. I do think that all activity will be offshore by the time of the scheduled evening fireworks displays, as it stands now, but I will monitor the situation very closely. Humidity will remain high on Saturday and it will also be another hot day with many areas reaching or exceeding 90, but not getting close to the levels of yesterday and today due to more cloudiness and the shower / thunderstorm chance, as well as the front passing through and shifting the wind from north to south, introducing a new air mass to the region by the end of the day. With favorable timing, it will be quite comfortable in comparison to previous hours by Saturday night. Sunday looks like a decent summer day with a fair amount of sun, seasonably warm air, and lower humidity with an area of high pressure in eastern Canada. This high will hang out up there into early next week as a wave of two of low pressure ride along the frontal boundary to our south. Right now, I think some shower activity will skirt the South Coast but remain mostly to our south on Monday, before high pressure to the north retreats enough to allow it into our region by Tuesday, which looks like an unsettled day.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. A remote chance of an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. Highs 92-99 except 84-91 Cape Cod. Dew most mostly 65+ but can fall under that at times in the coastal plain. Wind W 5-15 MPH with a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Lows 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially late morning to mid afternoon, except until late afternoon South Coast region. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+ but lowering from north to south later in the day. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW from north to south by late-day. Higher wind gusts can occur near any storms.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point falls below 60 late. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point sub-60. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Possible showers South Coast. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Showers possible South Coast evening then anywhere overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

Showers may linger July 8. Shower and thunderstorm a slight potential about July 10 and a greater potential by July 12. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

Overall pattern features west to east flow with a few passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm opportunities, but no prolonged unsettled weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

While we are in a hot stretch, despite some media claims it is not the “hottest in years”. We’ll start by making that clear. Avoid the hype and sensationalism and just stick to the facts. The fact is, high pressure ridging has us in a hot stretch of weather which will be lasting into the Independence Day holiday on Saturday, but shut down when a cold front drops through the region that morning and midday. Before that, hot and mainly rain-free weather is the story, though we have to watch for isolated pop-up t-storms as well as incoming “ridge rider” storm complexes or their remnants from the west and north. One such complex came through our region in morphing form (trying to regenerate as it had initially weakened), giving some areas downpours, some areas little or no rain, some wind, and a generally decent lightning show, even if just in the distance. Those systems are not well forecast by short range guidance, so always keep an close eye on what’s going on if you have outdoor plans. I’m still leaning toward an earlier frontal passage (by midday) across much of the region Saturday, of course reaching the South Coast later on. By evening I suspect that a good portion of the region will be quiet with the intense heat having been pushed out of the region. Sunday and Monday look more comfortable and while there may be some varying cloud cover from low pressure on the frontal boundary to our south, I suspect that is going to be kept mostly to the south by high pressure in eastern Canada and we will miss out here on any additional rain during that period of time.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Only a remote chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Highs 93-100 except 85-92 South Coast. Dew point 65+ but may drop to 55-62 in the coastal plain. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 71-78. Dew point 65+ but may start out below that in some areas. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Plenty of sun. A few clouds. A remote chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 92-99 except 84-91 Cape Cod. Dew most mostly 65+ but can fall again in coastal plain. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 71-78. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially morning-midday, may linger until later in the day South Coast region. Highs 85-92. Dew point 65+ then lowering. Wind SW shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible near any storms.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point falls below 60 late. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point sub-60. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

Greatest chance of unsettled weather July 7-8 and again July 10. Overall pattern is less hot with high pressure to our north and a frontal boundary to our south..

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

Overall pattern features west to east flow with a few passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm opportunities, but no prolonged unsettled weather. Temperatures near to above normal with the return of some hotter weather possible.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)

This 5-day forecast period takes us through the holiday weekend as Independence Day is Saturday. July starts off with a spell of hot weather as an upper ridge builds in, though its center remains to our west, delivering heat from the Midwest and Great Lakes, while high pressure at the surface builds to our south, sending in higher humidity behind yesterday’s disturbance and warm frontal passage (which was responsible for some heavy downpours in parts of the region). Being on the eastern side of the “ring of fire” – the zone where thunderstorms can travel around the periphery of the high pressure ridge, we’ll have to watch for those, aided of course by the heat and humidity. Our chances are highest today through early Thursday morning, before they drop off during the day Thursday and through much of Friday when the ridge reaches its most eastward extent. As the ridge backs to the west a little and allows a cold front to drop through the region Saturday, we’ll again face a higher thunderstorm possibility. While this pattern supports high heat and humidity in general over this period of time, there are also modifying factors. They include: Local sea breezes, debris cloudiness from thunderstorm clusters, actual storms with heavy rain, and post-storm cooled air. These can all at least temporarily slow down or take the edge of the heat. It’s also not going to be across the board oppressive humidity the entire time for most areas either. We will see some dew points break the 70-degree mark, but many areas may stay in the 60s for dew points for many hours, and also a westerly wind can occur and create a down-slope effect which can drive down points even lower, especially in the coastal plain. Sometimes when this happens, however, the air temperature can end up higher, but the breeze and lower dew point can compensate for this. Additionally, you may have heard talk of “low temps in the 80s”. That will not be happening either. The closest we will come to that a night or two is a low temperature closer to 80 than to 70 in some of the urban centers, due to the “heat island” effect, most certainly not where the extreme majority of people are trying to sleep. So it’s very important to keep all of this stuff in its proper perspective, which I will for you. So, despite headlines you may have seen, this will not be “the hottest (or the worst) in years”. It will be a hot spell in July, the likes of which we’ve seen many times. Now that we have that cleared up, how about the rest of the outlook heading through the weekend? Well, Saturday is key obviously, since it’s Independence Day, and currently I am leaning toward an earlier-in-the-day frontal passage over a later one. A later one would mean hotter weather and a longer / later chance for showers and t-storms, while earlier could easily cap the temperature rise but also end the shower and storm threat much sooner. Additionally, you may have heard some talk about a front that doesn’t really make it through the region. I also disagree with that idea and believe the front moves through efficiently enough so that we see drier and “cooler” (80s) on Sunday with fair weather, courtesy of high pressure to our north.

TODAY: Variably cloudy morning-midday with a shower or thunderstorm possible. Partly to mostly sunny afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible. Highs 89-96. Dew point 65+ Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 67-74. Dewpoint 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Early clouds, then lots of sun. Only a remote chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Highs 93-100 except 85-92 South Coast. Dew point 65+ but may drop to 55-62 in the coastal plain. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 71-78. Dew point 65+ but may start out below that in some areas. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Plenty of sun. A few clouds. A remote chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 92-99 except 84-91 Cape Cod. Dew most mostly 65+ but can fall again in coastal plain. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 71-78. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially morning-midday. Highs 85-92. Dew point 65+ then lowering. Wind SW shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible near any storms.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point falls below 60 late. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)

Greatest chance of unsettled weather July 7-8 and again July 10. Overall pattern is less hot with high pressure to our north and a frontal boundary to our south. Details TBD.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)

Overall pattern features west to east flow with a few passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm opportunities, but no prolonged unsettled weather. Temperatures near to above normal with the return of some hotter weather possible.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

Upper high pressure to the west expands to the east to impact our region with hotter weather Wednesday through Friday. The transition day into that set-up is today as a disturbance tracks to our north and its warm front moves across the region later today and tonight. In the evolving northwesterly air flow with this pattern, the disturbance and warm front will generate a thunderstorm cluster that will make a run at our region, but likely be weakening and breaking up as it moves into and across the region this evening / tonight. There is a shower and thunderstorm chance, but I’m not expecting intense storms or severe weather in the WHW forecast area. During the Wednesday through Friday period we see highest heat and humidity in the region, and will also still have to keep an eye upstream for “ridge rider” shower and thunderstorms or their remnants. The overall set-up does produce a rather strong cap in the atmosphere that may limit the ability of storms to survive the trip across our region, or develop around here. However, it’s borderline, and storms cannot be completely ruled out on any of those days / nights. Our transition day out of the hot spell appears to be Saturday, July 4, when there is a better shot at a passing shower or thunderstorm as a cold front drops through the region from north to south. At day 5, the confidence on timing of this front is not high, but I am leaning toward the first half of the day for a frontal passage over later on. This may also limit the ability for storms to be stronger, but could still impact some outdoor plans. Obviously this will be closely monitored. Behind the front I’d expect a wind shift to north or northeast in response to high pressure in eastern Canada, and this would provide heat relief.

TODAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm is possible afternoon and evening. Highs 82-89. Dewpoint 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 64-71. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Highs 89-96. Dew point 65+ Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 67-74. Dewpoint 65+. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 92-99 except 80s Cape Cod. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 71-78. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A thunderstorm possible. Highs 90-97 except 80s Cape Cod. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 71-78. Dew point 65+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially morning-midday. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+ then lowering. Wind W shifting to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 5-9)

Maritime air mass keeps it modified warm with moderate humidity July 5-6. A disturbance or two can bring a shower and thunderstorm threat heading into the middle of next week with more seasonably warm temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 10-14)

Overall pattern features west to east flow with a few passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm opportunities, but no prolonged unsettled weather. Temperatures slightly variable but averaging near normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

We finish up June today and Tuesday with a warming trend as a high pressure ridge builds to our west. Sunshine will be initially limited by fog & stratus in parts of southern MA, RI, and eastern CT early today, but that will dissipate leaving a filtered sunshine by both passing high clouds and high altitude smoke, the latter of which has travelled our way in the jet stream from the western portions of North America. Most of this should be driven to our south by Tuesday with more of a northwesterly air flow on the eastern side of a ridge. One other things we’ll have to watch for in the upper flow is a disturbance riding over the top of the ridge and bringing a batch or two of showers and thunderstorms through our region Tuesday afternoon or night. Forecasting the details of these things is difficult, even sometimes in the short-term, so heading into Tuesday we’ll see a trend toward more cloudiness and we’ll have to eye observations and radar to see how things evolve, which could be anything from a few showers and storms to a more general rain / t-storm area passing by. The upper ridge will build eastward as we begin July, and Wednesday through Friday will be hot days here. The position of the ridge should deflect most “over the top” convection to our north, but we’ll still have to keep an eye out for a stray thunderstorm at times. This heat will also come with higher humidity. Those with outdoor plans, work or leisure, should take note, and use caution. We may have to be a bit more alert for a thunderstorm potential by Friday as a slight retrogression of the upper ridge gets underway. I’ll monitor that during this week.

TODAY: Early-day fog / low cloud patches southern areas, otherwise filtered sun with high clouds and high-altitude smoke. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm is possible afternoon and evening. Highs 82-89. Dewpoint 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early. Lows 64-71. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+ Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 67-74. Dewpoint 65+. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 91-98 except 80s Cape Cod. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A thunderstorm possible. Highs 90-97 except 80s Cape Cod. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)

Watching for a back-door front to cool down at least eastern areas during the July 4-5 weekend, which will not be without a shower and thunderstorm threat, though the highest chance may shift to the west. Trend to more seasonable temperatures into next week with a few shower and thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)

Overall pattern features west to east flow with a few passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm opportunities, but no prolonged unsettled weather. Temperatures slightly variable but averaging near normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

A marine layer has enabled a lot of stratus and fog to form (or move in from the ocean) overnight. Sunshine is already out in some areas to the west and northwest, and eventually the stratus and fog will break up and dissipate enough so the region overall ends up with a mixture of sun and clouds today, but we’ll see cumulus clouds popping up once again, like yesterday, as the sea breezes redevelop during the day. It is near these boundaries that these clouds can grow enough to produce a few showers, even downpours and isolated thunder. The vast majority of any region stays dry and most areas that see any rainfall don’t see it for very long. If you have outdoor plans, just keep an eye on the sky and/or the radar. Any such activity dissipates with the setting sun and we’ll have a fair and quiet night with fog patches. High pressure will be in general control of our weather as we head through the last couple days of June and into the start of July. The large scale pattern configures itself so that the center of surface high pressure sinks to the south and we end up on the eastern side of a strong upper high pressure ridge to our west. This allows for the build in of summer heat as we get into the middle of the week. The other thing we’ll have to keep watch for are showers and thunderstorms that ride over the top of the ridge from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes then drop southeastward across the Northeast. This pattern leaves us vulnerable to passing activity. Sometimes such activity is benign, and other times it can bring strong to severe storms. It being very difficult to pinpoint these until they are only a number of hours away, it will be important to follow forecast updates and keep track of radar each day from Tuesday on.

TODAY: Low clouds and areas of fog to start, transitioning to a sun / cloud mix by late morning on. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest in coastal locations. Dew point around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes, pushing inland somewhat.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Fog patches form. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Early fog patches, otherwise sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Remote chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 82-89. Dewpoint 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Highs 86-93. Dew point 60+ Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 67-74. Dewpoint 65+. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Highs 90-97 except 80s some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Dew point 65+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)

Same general upper pattern that establishes during the next several days remains in place for this period. Upper high pressure does nudge eastward a little but also amplifies with its axis remaining to our west. July 3 features heat and humidity with a slight chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm. Probable back-door cold front provides relief from the hotter weather over the July 4-5 weekend but still can’t rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm in otherwise mostly fair weather. A little uncertain for July 6-7 whether the maritime air holds or the hotter weather from the west makes a comeback. Leaning toward the former. Still can’t rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm either of those days.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)

Most believable trend is for high pressure ridging to retrograde westward and a little more westerly air flow aloft takes over here with a return to the summer version of an up-and-down temperature pattern with a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms as disturbances / fronts pass by the region. Additional detail in time, as usual.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Your weekend weather will be generally pleasant overall with manageable humidity and a lack of heat. Surface high pressure and a very weak upper trough provide generally fair weather. The weak trough aloft does provide the opportunity for a pop up shower (remote thunderstorm chance) each afternoon, but coverage would be very low and any areas that did see activity would not be wet for very long. A weak wave of low pressure does pass south of the region bringing some additional cloudiness mainly south of I-90 and perhaps touch of light rainfall at midday to the South Coast, while the eastern coastal areas see stratus and fog nearby due to more abundant low level moisture and a light onshore air flow. Surface high pressure hangs on and slips to the south and east Monday through Wednesday next week, with a warming trend. We may be looking at some 90-degree readings by Wednesday, but not before that. The upper pattern developing features a ridge of high pressure in the Plains to Midwest during this period, with our region in a northwesterly air flow on the eastern side of the ridge. That pattern always prompts us to keep an eye out for “over the top” energy which can bring shower and thunderstorm chances, usually in passing. Sometimes these can become more organized and have a greater impact. This will be something we’ll have to monitor by Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Low clouds and fog in and out along eastern coastal areas. A blanket of clouds limting sun south of I-90 through early afternoon with a touch of light rain possible midday near the South Coast. Otherwise, a sun / cloud mix with a slight chance of isolated afternoon showers mainly over inland areas. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point lower to middle 60s morning, gradually lowering during the day. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches late night favoring lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 55. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny start except early morning patchy fog in lower elevations, then a sun / cloud mix. Slight chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point below 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Remote chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Highs 86-93. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)

General pattern features a northwesterly flow aloft, which is a seasonably warm pattern here with higher heat held off to our west but some of it can sneak in here especially early in the period. This pattern is mostly dry, but also features the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms to ride over the top of the ridge to our west and southeastward across New England. Sometimes these can be remnants, other times stronger and more organized.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)

Some guidance shows the presence of low pressure to the south increasing cloud cover and rain chances, but I’m reluctant to bite on this potential, with my outlook remaining generally the same at this time – a continuation of the pattern expected during the previous period.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)

This five-day forecast period covers the home stretch of June. It starts today with a humid day. A warm front crossing the region this morning brings a band of widespread showers. A rumble of thunder can’t be rule out through mid morning from the South Coast to South Shore of MA before the rain exits. During the hours from mid to late morning until late in the day we see warmth and humidity with a sun / cloud mix. The amount of sun overall will determine how much we can destabilize the atmosphere to aid in the development and sustaining of showers and thunderstorms that will be triggered by an approaching cold front as low pressure moves across southeastern Canada. The greatest potential for strong to locally severe storms will be north of I-90 between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m., and this afternoon it becomes a “now-casting” situation to monitor what goes on. This activity will fade as it tracks to the south and east and loses support. If any storms do become severe, wind damage is the primary threat, but an instance of hail 1 inch or greater in diameter is not impossible. The cold front goes through tonight but temporarily slows near the South Coast as a weak wave of low pressure moves west to east along it. This can hold the shower chance near the South Coast into Saturday morning with some cloudiness but rain-free weather elsewhere. These clouds then move out but as they depart, we’ll see diurnal cloud development and a couple of these could grow enough to produce a spot shower or thunderstorm Saturday afternoon. These would be isolated with most locations missing out. Areas that did see them would only be wet for a brief time, but could experience a downpour. So do keep an eye out if you have outdoor plans. We repeat this chance on Sunday, but to a slightly lesser degree with again most of the region just seeing fair weather. Temperatures this weekend will be seasonable with humidity at comfortable levels. Coastal areas will be a bit cooler each day with a tendency for onshore winds. High pressure provides generally fair and warm weather Monday and Tuesday, however during Tuesday we will have to keep an eye out for a disturbance in a northwesterly air flow aloft that could bring a passing shower or t-storm to some locations. At day 5 the confidence on this detail is low.

TODAY: Cloudy through mid morning with showers and the slight chance of a thunderstorm west to east. Partly sunny late morning through mid afternoon. Mostly cloudy late-day with showers and thunderstorms likely, particularly north of I-90 including the potential for a strong to severe storm. Highs 78-85. Dew point peaking in upper 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Any early showers / thunderstorms southeastern areas will move out. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds morning to midday including the chance of light rain near the South Coast, then a sun / cloud mix including the slight chance of a pop-up afternoon shower over inland locations. Highs 75-82. Dew point falls below 60. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, then a sun / cloud mix. Slight chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Remote chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)

General pattern features a northwesterly flow aloft, which is a seasonably warm pattern here with higher heat held off to our west. This pattern is mostly dry, but also features the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms to ride over the top of the ridge to our west and southeastward across New England. Sometimes these can be remnants, other times stronger and more organized. With this period of time leading up to and including the holiday weekend, there are many outdoor plans so it will be important to pay close attention to the weather each day regarding plans and travel to and from events.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)

Some general pattern configuration expected – northwesterly flow. Some temperature variability including the chance for a hotter day or two, but also the chance for a few passing showers and thunderstorms. Dry weather the majority of the time.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)

High pressure hangs on with dry weather during the day today but clouds will tend to increase ahead of a warm front extending from low pressure moving northeastward into the Great Lakes. As this low continues its journey into and across southeastern Canada tonight through Friday, its warm front will traverse the region with a band of showers and possibly some embedded thunder in the late night hours tonight to early morning hours Friday, exiting eastern areas around or shortly after the break of day. During the day Friday, we’ll spend many hours in the warm sector of the low with increased humidity and southerly wind. Short range model guidance has trended toward slightly more instability available for the development of showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along an approaching cold front later in the day. These will evolve from northwest to southeast. The coverage and intensity of storms will help to be determined by any sunshine we see in the warm sector, which is a factor in the instability. We also have a couple of other atmospheric ingredients in place to support storms becoming strong to possibly severe. It’ll be important to stay weather-aware during the day on Friday while this threat is present. Showers and storms will exit via the South Coast Friday evening as the front sweeps through the region, but the front will slow just offshore and a weak wave of low pressure is expected to slide eastward along it as we begin the weekend. This will delay complete clearing across much of our region, and where cloud cover is most extensive – to the south – we can see a period of rainfall skirt the South Coast region Saturday morning and/or midday. Other than a low chance of a pop-up diurnally-driven shower over inland locations Saturday afternoon, the bulk of the region will see dry weather with mild air and lowering humidity levels. Sunday and Monday both look like mainly fair weather days with weak surface high pressure in control, however a very weak trough at upper levels keeps the air up their just cold enough to support the potential for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm in isolated locations, favoring Sunday, so I am keeping this remote chance in the forecast, just in case.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast. Dew point near 60. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Showers linger in eastern areas early. Late-day showers and thunderstorms likely from northwest to southeast. Potential for strong to severe storms. Highs 78-85. Dew point peaking in upper 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Any early showers / thunderstorms southeastern areas will move out. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds morning to midday including the chance of light rain near the South Coast, then a sun / cloud mix including the slight chance of a pop-up afternoon shower over inland locations. Highs 75-82. Dew point falls below 60. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, then a sun / cloud mix. Slight chance of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Remote chance of an isolated afternoon shower. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

General pattern features weak northwesterly flow aloft and high pressure dominating the surface. Temperatures near to above normal with mainly dry weather other than slight chances for pop-up air mass showers or thunderstorms a couple days. A little more day-to-day detail as we get closer to the holiday period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)

Fairly benign pattern overall but a little more available moisture and a disturbance or two in the region can increase the shower and thunderstorm chance from time to time.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)

The low pressure wave that delivered additional rain to much of the region yesterday, especially southeastern areas, has departed with the exception of lingering cloud patches to cross the sky this morning, otherwise a drying westerly air flow and approaching high pressure means a fair weather day. Temperatures will be at seasonably warm levels with humidity lowering to comfortable levels as dew points fall from the 60s into the 50s. The next area of low pressure to contend with moves into the Great Lakes Thursday and across southern Ontario on Friday. Its warm front approaches our area later Thursday, increasing the cloud cover after a sunny start to the day. Showers associated with this front will cross the region Thursday night, and we’ll find ourselves in the warm sector of the low for much of the day Friday. The low’s cold front will then cross the region Friday late afternoon through mid evening, and will be the focal point for a broken to possibly more solid band of showers and thunderstorms. Similar to a recent system, wind shear is decent and instability is a bit lacking for this, so conditions overall are marginal for stronger storms to form, but it will be something we’ll need to watch closely during the day on Friday. The parent low moves into Atlantic Canada by early Saturday and the cold front will slow down as it exits the South Coast. A weak wave of low pressure moving along that front will keep some cloudiness in the region for Saturday morning, and we’ll have to watch for an area of showers that can brush the South Coast before a clearing trend takes over and sunshine becomes more dominant from midday on. Sunday, while surface high pressure keeps the region mainly dry, weak upper level low pressure will trigger just enough instability that a pop-up shower cannot be completely ruled out during the afternoon hours.

TODAY: Patchy clouds morning. Abundant sun midday on. Highs 76-83. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast. Dew point near 60. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning with showers likely and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Partly sunny midday to late afternoon. Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms from northwest to southeast late afternoon into evening. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of clouds morning, then increasing sun. Highs 75-82. Dew point falls below 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches lower elevations. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, then a sun / cloud mix. Slight chance of a pop-up shower during the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

One or two disturbances in the region during this time can help trigger a few showers and t-storms. Otherwise, the general pattern features northwesterly flow aloft, high pressure nearby at the surface, and mainly fair weather with near to slightly above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)

A similar pattern continues around Independence Day and into the following week. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances but dry most of the time. No major sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 23-27)

A frontal system draped across the region provides the avenue for another wave of low pressure moving along it today, prolonging the cloudy and showery weather, particularly over areas from I-95 / I-90 east and south. Some heavier downpours / thunderstorms will be included in this activity, especially early today, before we see a gradual diminishing of activity later on. Drier air moves in tonight with a clearing trend. High pressure builds in with fair weather for our region Wednesday. The next low pressure system we have to contend with moves into the Great Lakes Thursday and across southeastern Canada on Friday. This system will drag a warm front / cold front duo across our region Thursday night and Friday, providing our next period of unsettled weather. A little more detail needs to be worked out, but for now I expect a round or two of showers and embedded thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday morning, with an additional shower or thunderstorm chance Friday afternoon before the system exits the region. The cold front will sit not that far to our south to start the weekend Saturday, and this may allow some cloudiness to hang around for a while, but I am not looking for any additional rain as it stands now.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Episodes of rain with embedded heavier showers and possible thunderstorms, diminishing from northwest to southeast midday on. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W 5-15 MPH later in the day.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point falls to near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising slowly through 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast. Dew point near 60. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the morning. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dewpoint in 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partial clearing. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Limited sunshine. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

High pressure sits to the north and provides fair weather but a light off-the-ocean air flow on June 28. The June 29 through July 2 period looks dry most of the time, but a couple disturbances in the region can trigger a shower or thunderstorm from time to time. There will be some diurnal influence on these chances as well, so timing of disturbances will help determine chances and coverage of any activity. Temperatures somewhat variable, but not straying too far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)

Pattern looks surface high pressure dominant with a northwesterly air flow at upper levels. Overall dry with temperatures near to slightly above normal. A couple disturbances can trigger passing showers and thunderstorms but it would be dry the vast majority of the time.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)

Unsettled weather will be with us early this week. You may not think this statement is accurate if you’re an early riser today, seeing some sunshine, but the clouds are quickly moving in from the west and we’ll lose the sunshine by mid morning to the west and late morning or midday to the east, followed not long after be periodic rainfall in response to the approach of the first of two waves of low pressure. We’ll see the most solid rain area move through this evening, which then breaks into showery patches later at night before a second wave of low pressure solidifies it and prolongs the wet weather in much of the region through midday Tuesday. After this, we’ll see a drying trend develop from northwest to southeast as the system begins to shift offshore. Dry air arrives Tuesday night and high pressure builds in with dry weather for Wednesday. This high will shift northeastward Thursday as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes from the southwest. The low’s warm front will approach our region, increasing the cloud cover by later Thursday, then bringing the chance of some additional rain Thursday night and into Friday morning. Based on current timing, we will enter the warm sector of the low for several hours before its cold front crosses the region later Friday. This set-up indicates a good chance of showers and thunderstorms, however timing, coverage, and intensity of potential storms will have to be determined as we get closer.

TODAY: Sun gives way to overcast west to east. Rain chances increase west to east this afternoon. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point heads for 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point similar to temperature. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy. Episodes of rain with embedded heavier showers and possible thunderstorms, diminishing from northwest to southeast midday on. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W 5-15 MPH later in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point falls to near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising slowly through 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast. Dew point near 60. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 76-83. Dewpoint in 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

High pressure builds in with fair weather June 27-28 weekend. Frontal system brings a shower chance June 29 before high pressure returns with fair weather to finish the month of June and start off July. Temperatures generally close to seasonal normals.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)

Pattern looks surface high pressure dominant with a northwesterly air flow at upper levels. Overall dry with temperatures near to slightly above normal. A couple disturbances can trigger passing showers and thunderstorms but this would be the exception over the rule.