DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 5-9)

Today is a transition day between yesterday’s lower humidity and and upcoming classic summer pattern. There’s a small-sized low pressure area passing just southeast of New England early today with its shower activity remaining over the water southeast of Nantucket before heading out to sea. We’ll see some high cloudiness fanning into our sky from the southwest as high pressure shifts offshore to our south. This means abundant but filtered sunshine today as we see warm temperatures and an increase in humidity. Then, Thursday through Sunday will feature a classic high humidity, very warm to hot stretch of weather. Diurnal (mainly afternoon to very early evening) pop-up showers and thunderstorms are a possibility daily Thursday through Sunday, and other than likely being scattered to potentially clustered with the aid of an upper level disturbance passing by on Thursday, they should be mostly isolated Friday and the weekend. Outdoor plans are generally a go in this pattern, but you do need to keep an eye to the sky and on radar for any of these storms, which while they are the exception, can produce torrential rain, gusty wind, and of course frequent lightning for a time in any area that they occur.

TODAY: Filtered sun with high clouds. Highs 81-88. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible from mid afternoon through early evening. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast, and also can drop back to near 80 at east-facing shores. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 coastal areas. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but with potential sea breezes in all coastal areas.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: A sun / cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 coastal areas. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but with potential sea breezes in all coastal areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: A sun / cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 coastal areas. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but with potential sea breezes in all coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 10-14)

The classic Bermuda High pattern breaks down somewhat in favor of a more west to east flow in our area. This creates a little more variability in the temperature, but no extremes. Two disturbances / frontal systems are to be watched for enhanced shower and thunderstorm potential, one in the August 10-11 window and the other in the August 13-14 window.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 15-19)

A general west to east flow with a couple passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm chances heading through the heart of mid August. Temperatures slightly variable, averaging fairly close to normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 4-8)

High pressure brings us a fair weather and lower humidity day today, then the high shifts offshore and parks itself, taking up residence as the “Bermuda High” for the remainder of this week, putting us in the classic warm to hot and humid summer pattern, with a daily chance for pop-up showers and t-storms. Repeating what I said yesterday, we can watch for a couple disturbances that can enhance such activity, but in general it just looks like daily air mass activity. Any that do form though can become strong and contain locally gusty winds and torrential downpours, and of course any thunderstorm can produce frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, so if you have outdoor plans during this stretch of time, not only be sure to stay hydrated and protect yourself from the sun, but also be “weather-aware” for any storms.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point drops to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm, primarily during the afternoon hours. Highs 81-88. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 Cape Cod / South Coast. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: A thunderstorm possible early, otherwise partly cloudy with patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: A sun / cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 coastal areas. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but with potential sea breezes in all coastal areas.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: A sun / cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 coastal areas. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but with potential sea breezes in all coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 9-13)

Continuation of classic summer pattern with high pressure off the Atlantic Coast, moderate to high humidity, and a few shower and thunderstorm chances while most of the time is rain-free. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 14-18)

A general west to east flow with a couple passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm chances. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 3-7)

A moist and muggy southwesterly air flow is in place as we start this week, and abundant cloud cover and showery weather will be the rule this morning to midday before we get a break in the action and see a sun / cloud mix for a few hours this afternoon, setting up the shot at a batch of thunderstorms moving west to east across the region later in the day with the passage of a cold front. We’ll have to watch for some severe weather potential with any storms, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. Conditions quiet down during Monday night as the front pushes offshore and the storm threat wraps up. High pressure will build in with fair and seasonably warm weather Tuesday, with slightly lower humidity. High pressure then parks itself off the East Coast Wednesday through Friday with warm to hot, humid weather dominating. We will have the chance of a shower or thunderstorm during these 3 days, but the vast majority of the time will feature rain-free weather. The air mass itself makes it most likely that showers and storms would occur during the mid afternoon to early evening, during and just after maximum heating. However, if a smaller-scale disturbance were to cross the region, showers and storms could occur outside of this time window. I have seen hints of one showing up on some guidance for earlier in the day on Wednesday, and perhaps another one late Thursday or Thursday night, but these occurrences are not certain – just something to keep an eye out for.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy with widespread showers and the chance of embedded thunder through midday, focused on areas west of I-95 with occasional showers and a possible thunderstorm I-95 belt eastward. Sun / cloud mix mid into late afternoon before heavier clouds and a likely thunderstorm line or cluster crosses the region from west to east late afternoon to early evening. Highs 74-81. Dew point around 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH, but strong and potentially damaging wind gusts can occur with late-day storms.

TONIGHT: Any shower or thunderstorm lingering in southeastern MA ends, otherwise partly cloudy with foggy areas. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind shifts to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point drops to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm, primarily during the afternoon hours. Highs 81-88. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 Cape Cod / South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: A thunderstorm possible early, otherwise partly cloudy with patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: A sun / cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 coastal areas. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but with potential sea breezes in all coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 8-12)

Continuation of classic summer pattern with high pressure off the Atlantic Coast, moderate to high humidity, and a few shower and thunderstorm chances while most of the time is rain-free. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 13-17)

A general west to east flow develops with a couple passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm chances. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 2-6)

It’s now early August, and our weather during the next 5 days will be, well, typical of August. Wow, what a coincidence! The general pattern now features weak to moderate high pressure off the US East Coast providing fairly humid conditions, while a series of disturbances come our way from the west and southwest, providing shower and thunderstorm chances. The latter is not the case for today, but plentiful moisture in the atmosphere, both lower and upper, will bring abundant cloudiness and limit any sun. A cold front will amble its way across the region Monday, bringing episodic showers and thunderstorms. This front clears the region and a weak high pressure ridge brings us fair weather during Tuesday, before a disturbance or two bring shower and thunderstorm chances back to our region during midweek.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Highs 79-86. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 74-81. Dew point near 70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 79-86. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 7-11)

Continuation of classic summer pattern with high pressure off the Atlantic Coast, moderate to high humidity, and a few shower and thunderstorm chances while most of the time is rain-free. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 12-16)

A more west to east flow, limited temperatures variability leaning toward the slightly warmer than normal side, and a couple shower and t-storm opportunities with passing disturbances / fronts during this period at mid August.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 1-5)

August begins with a fair weather day, courtesy a weak ridge of high pressure over our region. We will see an increase in high cloudiness as the day goes on, and plentiful clouds will fill the sky tonight, though without a rain threat. Sunday will also continue the theme of more cloudiness and less sun than today, but again I believe any rain threat is absent. Humidity levels will be elevated, though not oppressive, this weekend, at least until Sunday night when they start to increase further ahead of an approaching cold front. This front ambles its way across our region on Monday, and while that day can feature intervals of sun, it also carries a strong chance of quite a few showers and thunderstorms triggered by the front. During this time, low pressure develops and cuts off over the eastern Ohio Valley. Previously, I envisioned this system causing a very showery episode around Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, but trends are for a weaker system which does send moisture our way, with the help of high pressure off the East Coast. But this set-up would favor more of an afternoon scattered shower and thunderstorm occurrence those days, with continued warm and humid early August weather.

TODAY: Sunshine becomes filtered to limited with time. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Highs 79-86. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 74-81. Dew point near 70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 79-86. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 6-10)

Continuation of a more classic summer pattern with high pressure off the Atlantic Coast, moderate to high humidity, and a few shower and thunderstorm chances while most of the time is rain-free. Potential for a disturbance from the west to enhance shower and thunderstorm chances on August 6. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 11-15)

A general west to east flow should take a couple of troughs / fronts through with shower and t-storm chances, but with majority of the time featuring fair weather. Temperatures slightly variable but averaging around normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Upper level low pressure and a weakened surface companion will finally depart to our east today, but enough unstable air on the back side of it can still help initiate a few pop-up showers this afternoon with the help of the sun’s heating, but those will be the exception and not the rule – just keep an eye out if you have outdoor plans. High pressure builds in tonight and Saturday with fair weather, then slides offshore Sunday with continued mainly fair weather, though more clouds, with an increase in humidity levels too. Monday, a frontal system drifts into the region from the west, with high humidity and shower / t-storm chances, and some of the latest indications are that this will be a rather slow-to-leave system and may hang around enough so that a weak low pressure area that develops to our south and west, with the front still in our area, works its way along that boundary to give additional shower chances to us on Tuesday. Confidence is not as high as I’d like it to be in this part of the forecast, so please check future updates.

TODAY: A sun / cloud mix. A pop-up shower possible this afternoon. Highs 73-80. Dew point holds 60+. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy, then clearing. Patchy ground fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Lows 65-72. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)

Transition to a more classic summer pattern with high pressure off the Atlantic Coast, moderate to high humidity, and a few shower and thunderstorm chances while most of the time is rain-free. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)

A general west to east flow should take a couple of troughs / fronts through with shower and t-storm chances, but with majority of the time featuring fair weather. Temperatures slightly variable but averaging around normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Anomalous low pressure sits over our region but weakens today with persistent overcast and showery weather but a decrease in shower intensity and coverage with time. The low them pulls away to the east on Friday with improving weather – more sun and just a chance of a quick-passing shower. Temperatures which run quite a bit below the seasonal average today will begin to recover a little bit on Friday, but much more so as we start the weekend Saturday with sunshine in response to high pressure moving in. Weather systems will be a little more on the move by this weekend and the trend has been for a quicker exit of high pressure offshore Sunday and the approach of the next trough and frontal system from the west, which will increase the amount of clouds we see on Sunday, but with any showers and thunderstorms likely holding off until evening or nighttime, first to the west then expanding eastward. This would linger into Monday before a clearing trend arrived as the front moves through and offshore. Timing and details of that frontal passage will be refined in the next few blog updates.

TODAY: Cloudy. Foggy areas particularly early in the day. Numerous showers and widespread drizzle tapering to scattered showers and patchy drizzle. Highs 66-73. Dew point 60s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, gusts can reach or exceed 20 MPH especially in eastern coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Becoming partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 73-80. Dew point falls under 60. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point falls toward 50. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point rises to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring eastern areas and favoring the morning hours. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)

A little bit of a change here. We have to watch for a potential small cut-off low that hangs back behind the early-week frontal passage and may bring additional shower chances to our region early in this period, after which the trend should be to mainly fair weather and generally seasonably warm temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)

A general west to east flow should take a couple of troughs / fronts through with shower and t-storm chances, but with majority of the time featuring fair weather. Temperatures slightly variable but averaging around normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

A mini blocking set-up leads to an encounter with an anomalous low pressure area which will give us a significant rain event today and tonight as the low, currently occluding over NY, drifts eastward just south of southern New England initially, sending a band of moderate to heavy rainfall including embedded thunderstorms northeastward across our region today, starting in CT and RI this morning and reaching southern NH this afternoon. Given the tight low pressure area initially, there exists in the lower atmosphere some wind shear that could enable a couple of the individual convective cells to gain some rotation. This set-up is not incapable of producing brief, relatively weak tornadoes. This, if it occurred, would be an isolated instance somewhere in eastern CT, RI, or adjacent south central to southeastern MA. The potential is there enough to mention the possibility of damaging wind gusts, but the greater potential for the region is most definitely heavy rainfall and areas of flooding, although in general the rain will be beneficial for reducing the longer term deficit. As briefly strong as this low pressure area gets, during the end of its maturing process it will drift into southern New England early Thursday but start to weaken steadily. This will keep us cloudy and showery but without the heavy rainfall of today. Obviously, with a general onshore flow from the Atlantic from the east to northeast these days, our temperatures will run cooler than the seasonal averages for late July. Finally, the low pulls away to the east on Friday, and other than the chance of a quick-hitting pop-up shower, we’ll see drier air start to erode the cloud cover with a clearing trend getting underway. High pressure builds into our region for a great weekend to begin the month of August, although as the high slides to the east you may notice an up-tick in the humidity by Sunday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers and potential thunderstorms with heavy downpours likely – starting out eastern CT into RI and MA South Coast then lifting north northeast across the region as time goes on. Areas of fog, particularly this morning and then again later in the day favoring eastern coastal locations. Highs 66-73. Dew point 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast, and also the slight risk of isolated damaging wind gusts near any of the stronger convective cells embedded in the rain area.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers and drizzle likely. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers. Areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 67-74. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NE.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Becoming partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 73-80. Dew point falls under 60. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls toward 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point rises to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

A more “typical” west to east flow. A frontal system moves through with a shower and t-storm chance on August 3. High pressure builds in behind that with fair weather, but humidity increases later in the week and with a trough approaching from the west we may see a few more shower and t-storms around toward the end of the period. Temperatures more in line for what would be expected in early August.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

A couple opportunities for showers and t-storms, but overall pattern features more dry than wet time. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Much of the region is covered in a stratus cloud deck to start today out due to increased low level moisture on a light southerly air flow, which is taking place as a trough of low pressure approaches. Surface low pressure to our west will redevelop over the northern Mid Atlantic tonight and then wheel its way toward southern New England while rapidly maturing and occluding, becoming quasi-stationary as it then begins to weaken through Thursday, finally drifting off to our east during the day on Friday. This evolution means a period of unsettled weather, beginning with a shower and t-storm chance mainly west of Boston later today, peaking Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday with the most widespread and heavier shower and embedded thunderstorm activity takes place, but slow to wind down with lingering showers perhaps until early Friday. Any rain we do receive is, of course, beneficial since we remain in a long term precipitation deficit. Hey! August 1 is day 5! And that’s the first day of the first weekend of the final month of meteorological summer. And you know what? It looks like great weather will have returned by then as high pressure builds in!

TODAY: Low clouds break for partial sun in some areas during this morning. Clouds return west to east midday on with a shower and thunderstorm chance increasing west of the I-95 belt by later in the day. Highs 76-83. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers and potential thunderstorms with heavy downpours likely – starting out most likely west of I-95 and south of I-90 then progressing northeastward during the day. Areas of fog. Highs 66-73. Dew point 60s. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lingering showers and drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Patchy drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 67-74. Dew point 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 73-80. Dew point falls under 60. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Dew point falls toward 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

August 2 looks dry with high pressure in control. Weather pattern after that leans toward a more humid southwesterly air flow with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms at times, but not excessively wet. Temperatures generally around seasonal averages but may go above normal by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

A couple opportunities for showers and t-storms, but overall pattern features more dry than wet time. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 27-31)

As we had down the home stretch of July, these final 5 days throw quite a bit of weather at our region. This may be a standard work week for some, and a vacation week for others. If it’s the latter, you’ll unfortunately have to deal with some wet weather and below average temperatures. Step-by-step, here’s how we get there, and how long it may hang around: Today we start out with a fairly nice day as weak high pressure slowly drifts away to our northeast. An offshore low pressure area has helped to bring in enough Atlantic moisture for some scattered to broken stratus cloud cover across southeastern MA, and this will pull out during the day today. Meanwhile, we will start to feel the first effects of a low pressure trough approaching from the west. A disturbance working its way into western New England, combined with a little more moisture moving in from the south, can help trigger a few afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms over western New England, and a few of these may get closer to the western reaches of the WHW forecast area – basically the Connecticut Valley. Otherwise, today will be rain-free, and any of those showers and storms that make it that far east will dissipate with the setting sun, which will start to be interrupted by an increase in cloudiness which then continues overnight into Tuesday, a day which will feature increased humidity and shower / thunderstorm chances as low pressure moves through the Great Lakes. Low pressure is set to redevelop with a digging low pressure trough into the Mid Atlantic by Wednesday, and this system is going to bring us a cool and rather wet period of weather Wednesday into Thursday as it slowly wheels through the region. Some beneficial rainfall seems in the cards, but if bands of heavier rain occur, they can result in some flooding issues, so we’ll have to keep an eye on that. I expect the low pressure area to pull away from the region with improving weather Friday, but there can still be a pop-up shower or thunderstorm on the back side of the system with lingering instability.

TODAY: Variably cloudy – least sun southeastern MA this morning and interior areas later in the day with a stray shower or thunderstorm possible late in the day, mainly close to the CT Valley. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point heads for 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily midday and afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point surpasses 60. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 67-74. Dew point near 65. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lingering showers and drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 73-80. Dew point falls under 60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)

August 1-2 weekend looks mainly dry with high pressure in control. First half of next week can see higher humidity and shower / t-storm chances. Temperatures generally around seasonal averages.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)

A couple opportunities for showers and t-storms, but overall pattern features more dry than wet time. Temperatures generally seasonable.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 26-30)

High pressure remains in control enough to give us another rain-free and pleasantly low humidity day to finish off the weekend. However, with the high center to our north, a light east to northeasterly flow will persist, and this is carrying just enough maritime moisture in for a deck of broken stratus clouds over Cape Cod. This will limit the sun at times there for at least a portion of the day, and combined with the onshore flow, this area will be your coolest section of the WHW region today. We’ll also see a few high clouds across the western sky on the edge of a weakening disturbance to our west. But overall, a very nice Sunday is today’s weather theme! Moving into the coming week, the guidance has struggled depicting the evolution of the pattern, but I’m starting to see enough consistency for a somewhat clearer picture, and this does lead to an adjustment to my outlook as well, with a more consolidated but still rather drawn out period of unsettled weather upcoming. Before that, we squeak in one more fair weather day Monday, however an increase in high clouds will be noted ahead of a warm front extending from low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. The difference in expectation is now explained: Previously, my favored solution was for unsettled weather focused on Tuesday and again Thursday from two separate systems with a short break between. The trend has been for a slower arrival of the first one and an overall combination of the two disturbed weather areas into more of a single, but drawn-out evolution that centers around initial low pressure in the Great Lakes during Tuesday, then redeveloping over the Mid Atlantic and wheeling its way to a position just south of New England on Wednesday, then lifting through the region while weakening on Thursday. This would result in a 3-day unsettled weather stretch, the wettest on Wednesday when we also have a moderate onshore flow, with the other two days featuring a more showery set-up, including the chance of thunderstorms. There is still quite a bit of refining to do on the details with that system, which will be done over the next few updates of this blog. I also add new thoughts in the comments after each day’s post, so feel free to check those if you don’t typically do so. And since I mentioned it, if you have never commented on the blog before and would like to, all you have to do is choose a name to go by and enter an email address (nobody sees the email, on your username). Your first comment goes into moderation for me to approve. So long as you continue to use the same username and email you can continue to comment. WordPress will send one with any differences in username and/or email back to moderation, as it’s quite picky about that, so if you do change it, be patient as sometimes it takes a while for me to get to the moderation folder during my busy days. 🙂 Now, onto the rest of the forecast…

TODAY: Cape Cod clouds limit the sun at times. Plenty of sun elsewhere. Highs 70-75 Islands / Outer Cape Cod, 76-81 elewhere. Dew point in 50s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point heads for 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point surpasses 60. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 67-74. Dew point near 65. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lingering showers and drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 68-75. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

A pop-up shower or t-storm possible July 31 on the western periphery of departing low pressure, otherwise dry weather returns and persists through the August 1-2 weekend. Higher humidity along with afternoon shower and t-storm chances August 3-4.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)

Shower and t-storm chances early and again late period but overall pattern looks mostly rain-free with generally seasonable temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 25-29)

High pressure brings fair and comfortable weather this weekend along with low humidity and ocean breezes. Sunday’s coastal breeze will be a little cooler than today’s, but still a pleasant day by seaside, or basically anywhere you plan to be. The high starts to depart Monday while a trough moves into the Midwest and Great Lakes, along with a surface low. The warm front extending out from this low will start to increase our cloud cover during Monday, but as with yesterday’s outlook I still expect the daylight hours to remain dry before we watch for the first chances of showers sometime that night ahead of the front. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature more unsettled weather as the trough moves through. The behavior of low pressure will determine more detail and this is something to-be-determined over the next few days. For now, similar to last week, I’m leaning toward a warm frontal passage and showery weather Tuesday, and a cold frontal passage with a shower and thunderstorm chance Wednesday. There is some chance that this time we do see the development of a new low pressure area a little further to the south, which would change the game somewhat. I’m not nearly confident at this point that this will take place, so the forecast wording is generalized for days 4 and 5 at this time and will be refined as the picture becomes clearer. In the mean time, enjoy a stellar weekend!

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point heads for 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point surpasses 60. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Additional troughing brings shower and thunderstorm chances for July 30 but it now appears that this will move quickly enough to bring drier weather for the final day of July and the opening day of August before the next trough, a weaker one, returns a shower and thunderstorm chance to our region August 2-3. With lower confidence at the end of the 5-day period, it follows that this outlook is also not the highest confidence one, but just a general idea of how it would be expected to play out.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)

Shower and t-storm chances early and again late period but overall pattern looks mostly rain-free with generally seasonable temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 24-28)

High pressure provides great mid summer weather from today through this coming weekend with plenty of sunshine each day, low humidity, and generally light winds including coastal sea breezes, and temperatures that run near to slightly below normal. Things change as we get into the beginning of next week when a trough approaches from the west. While Monday’s daylight hours look generally dry, we’ll see increasing clouds ahead of a warm front extending from low pressure moving out of the Midwest. A larger scale trough will be moving into the Great Lakes and Northeast later Monday through Tuesday, and the aforementioned low will bring increased shower and thunderstorm chances Monday night and Tuesday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point heads for 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point surpasses 60. Wind SE to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Timing of a trough moving through the region keeps shower chances into the first part of July 29 before drier weather returns. Another shower or thunderstorm chance comes along in the July 30-31 window, otherwise mostly fair weather and generally near normal temperatures are expected as we move from July to August.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 3-7)

Fair weather early in the period before shower and thunderstorm chances and higher humidity return. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 23-27)

This morning, the last hints of yesterday’s unsettled weather linger over Outer Cape Cod and the Islands with a blanket of clouds and a few showers, but this will slide off to the east early in the day and the the mainly sunny sky over the remainder of the region as the sun climbs the eastern sky will overtake that area as well. We may see some passing fair weather clouds and also you may notice a little bit of a hazy look from some high altitude smoke, but this layer is rather diffuse and not anywhere close to the surface, so its impact on today will be negligible, and you can enjoy plenty of sun, a nice breeze, and lower humidity. High pressure will sit atop our region Friday through the weekend with fantastic mid summer / late July weather – lots of sun each day, light wind with coastal sea breezes, and continued low humidity. Monday, clouds start to return as the next trough in a series moves out of the Midwest and surface low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, its warm front approaching our region. As the clouds increase, the shower chance follows by later in the day.

TODAY: Early clouds and a few showers Islands / Outer Cape Cod, otherwise sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior low elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Late-day shower chances. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Shower and thunderstorm chances July 28 and July 30-31 with troughs passing through the region. Much of the time will be rain-free. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)

Fair weather early in the period before shower and thunderstorm chances and higher humidity return. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 22-26)

A humid air mass has invaded our region as a warm front passed through late yesterday to early today with widespread rainfall including some heavier thunderstorms. That activity has now exited, and as low pressure passes to our north today, its cold front has to cross the region. While available moisture is there at the surface and solar heating will be present as the warm frontal clouds and areas of fog clear out, a push of drier air at mid levels will limit shower and thunderstorm coverage to generally isolated to scattered along a line pushing eastward through the region during the afternoon to early evening hours. An additional batch of showers may visit RI and southeastern MA later tonight / early Thursday morning as the front slows while exiting the region. After that, high pressure builds toward the region with a drier northwesterly breeze and nice summer weather on Thursday. High pressure then sits over our area from Friday through the weekend with stellar late July weather – lots of sun, low humidity, and daily coastal sea breezes.

TODAY: A first-thing-in-the-morning shower over Outer Cape Cod, otherwise lots of clouds and areas of fog give way to a sun/cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible from west to east this afternoon to early evening. Highs 80-87 but a bit cooler South Coast. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible especially around any showers and storms.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds southeastern MA & RI with a shower chance. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 61-68. Dew point lowers to near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 79-86. Dew point in 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior low elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 27-31)

Shower and thunderstorm chances July 27-28 and July 30-31 with troughs passing through the region. Much of the time will be rain-free, however. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 1-5)

Fair weather early to mid period before shower and thunderstorm chances and higher humidity return later in the period. Temperatures near normal.