DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

The next weather event in our active pattern stares us in the face this morning and while some areas saw a colorful sunrise, an overcast day is ahead. As approaching low pressure nudges a frontal boundary northward toward our area, the precipitation shield it generates will overspread the region starting by midday. With borderline temperatures in place we can see it start as rain or a mix the closer to the coast and further south you are, and snow to the northwest, and the snow should be dominant at first, but warmer air moving in at mid levels eventually means more mixing and rain, especially south of the Route 2 corridor, and this will limit or even prevent accumulation of any snow / sleet the further south you go. Yesterday’s forecast ranges remain in place for this update, but I am leaning toward the lower ends of them. This will include some additional minor accumulation as the low pressure area redevelops along the front that never quite makes it through the region, and pulls slightly colder air back to the south later tonight into Saturday, when some lingering light snow and snow showers can occur not only during the day, but even into the evening. These accumulations, stretched out over 24 hours, while not impressive, will be even less so in real time since they occur not on a quick burst, but over a longer time period. Expectations: Coating to 1 inch I-90 southward except 1-2 inches higher elevations south central MA and adjacent northwestern RI and northeastern CT, 1-3 inches Route 2 corridor northward except 3-5 inches higher elevations far north central MA and interior southern NH (again leaning toward lower ends of these ranges). I continue to monitor guidance and synoptic set-up regarding the system that follows this, discussed at length this week, and repeated here by saying there is pretty much no change to the ideas, as I continue to lean toward a quicker-moving, slower-developing low pressure area along the Mid Atlantic Coast that eventually starts to intensify more rapidly as it tracks northeastward, passing a fair distance southeast of New England late Sunday to early Monday. By then it will be cold enough that we only talk about a snow shield associated with it (no mixing). The storm is expected to be far enough offshore so that its main snow shield has the most significant impact on southeastern MA, especially Cape Cod and the Islands, while a lighter snowfall takes place elsewhere due to the interaction of this system with upper level low pressure still having to cross the region, with the “maximum” precipitation period Sunday evening before it departs on Monday. The wake of the system presents us with dry and seasonably chilly conditions for the balance of Monday through Tuesday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives midday-afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with mix/snow tapering to snow showers. Lows 27-34. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with occasional snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Afternoon snow develops, favoring southeastern areas / Cape Cod. Highs 30-37. Lows 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Clouds break for sun. A few snow showers possible favoring eastern areas. Highs 30-37. Wind N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH far eastern areas, with higher gusts, diminishing late.

MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 16-23. Highs 31-38. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Watching for additional unsettled weather in the February 25-27 time frame and again as March arrives. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)

Unsettled potentials start and end the period with fair weather between the two chances. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

The busy pattern rolls on but we get a break today with a small area of high pressure providing fair weather. We then enter an unsettled stretch from Friday until early Monday when we are impacted by two separate weather systems associated with a generally west-to-east boundary between Canadian cold and lingering Pacific air over much of the eastern US. The next low pressure waves comes at the Northeast via the Ohio Valley on Friday, with the boundary being pulled northward by the low, but running into the influence of high pressure in eastern Canada. This will force a halt to the front and a redevelopment of low pressure to the southeast of New England which will then move away from the region Saturday. Elongated low pressure – the remains of the original low, will still be over the region on Saturday. The sequence of precipitation with this system will be a large area arriving from southwest to northeast from late morning to early afternoon Friday, at which time we’ll also see an intrusion of warmer air aloft. The magnitude of the latter will help determine where it snows and where sleet and rain takes place. Latest trends on short range guidance is a little milder for this portion of the event. As the redeveloped low takes over to the southeast and starts to move away, colder air does shift back south at the same time the precipitation shield is becoming more broken up, so we see a transition to occasional mix to snow and eventually just snow showers as we head into Saturday – this tapering off by later afternoon or evening. Snowfall accumulation potential is greatest over interior and higher elevation locations with this system. My expectations are for a coating to 1 inch generally south of I-90, closer to 1 inch or just over that in higher elevations of south central MA, northwestern RI, and northeastern CT, and a general 1 to 3 inches elsewhere but a 3 to 5 inch potential over higher elevations of north central MA into interior southern NH, where are areas that can snow for the longest amount of time with the least amount of mix / rain involved. And then attention shifts to the next low pressure development which will take place along the southern Mid Atlantic Coast on Sunday. I continue to lean toward a slightly faster and slower-developing low that tracks pretty far offshore to the southeast of New England by early Monday. If this is indeed how it plays out, the best chance of steadier snow and certainly stronger wind would be over Cape Cod / far southeastern areas while lighter snowfall takes place to the north and west between Sunday afternoon and early Monday. Regardless of track, the storm will be intensifying and pulling away later Monday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives midday-afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with mix/snow tapering to snow showers. Lows 27-34. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Afternoon snow develops, favoring southeastern areas / Cape Cod. Highs 30-37. Lows 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Clouds break for sun. A few snow showers possible favoring eastern areas. Highs 30-37. Wind N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH far eastern areas, with higher gusts, diminishing late.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Watching for additional unsettled weather in the February 25-27 time frame. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)

Another threat of wintry weather exists around the start of March with fair weather following.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

An active pattern will throw a low of unsettled weather at our region over the next several days, on a wavering border between cold air in Canada and mild Pacific air residing in a large part of the eastern US. Today’s event is a fairly narrow band of precipitation coming along the boundary with the help of a weak wave of low pressure. It’s mild enough that we should see it start as rain then shift toward sleet to snow, but it will be in a fairly narrow band that may leave parts of the Merrimack Valley, northeastern MA, and southern NH out of most of it, with the steadier precipitation focused to the southwest of Boston. As for snowfall accumulation, I’m not looking for much, maybe up to an inch or two where it snows longest / steadiest, which I think will stretch from Boston’s southwestern suburbs west northwestward across central MA. The conveyor belt of moisture goes dry by late evening when drier air moves in, and this will last through Thursday which will be a fairly decent day. And then we wait for the next batch of moisture to come out way with another low pressure area, this one slightly more organized than its predecessor. Its precipitation area will be a little more widespread and cross the region during Friday afternoon and night with a variety of precipitation, favoring rain / mix to the south and mix / snow to the north. This time I favor up to a few inches of snow accumulation favoring north central MA into southern NH, but will refine those details over the next 48 hours. Behind this one can come some lingering snow showers into Saturday morning which may be formidable enough for some minor additional accumulation in some areas. The next one to watch has been shown to have a lot more potential to be a significant winter storm on a lot of guidance – a solution that I have doubted quite a bit, but don’t reject 100%. Watching that. However, how I think it plays out is based on the behavior of a regional blocking to our west and northwest by then – high pressure over southern Hudson Bay of Canada and elongated upper low pressure over the Great Lakes. I believe this forces the disturbance fueling the next system to move a little more quickly to the east and a little further south, igniting low pressure along the southern Mid Atlantic Coast early Sunday which then moves east northeastward, passing south of New England Sunday night. My early idea on this system is that while it does start to intensify fairly quickly, it does so a little more slowly than many model depictions indicate and with a track far enough south that southern portions of our region are side-swiped by the main precipitation area (probably snow as it should be cold enough) and the remainder of the region sees lighter snowfall from a pressure weakness between that storm and the aforementioned upper low which will be sliding eastward across northern New England by that time. I’ll continue to monitor this threat.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog into mid morning. Precipitation arrives west to east midday-afternoon as mainly rain then trending to sleet and snow later in northern areas, with greatest chance of steadier precipitation central and east central MA southward, less chance in NH. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Mix/snow probable evening with snow accumulation of a coating to 1 inch, except up to 2 inches possible higher elevations mainly central and south central MA. Precipitation ends and clouds break overnight. Watch for icy spots on untreated surfaces. Lows 28-35. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives midday-afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with mix/snow, tapering off overnight. Early call on snow accumulating for this event less 1 to 3 inches except under 1 inch toward the South Coast. Lows 28-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers until midday, then partial sunshine. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

There maybe lingering early snow February 23 in southeastern areas, otherwise dry weather into the middle of next week before the next unsettled weather threat appears in the February 26-27 timeframe. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

Another threat of wintry weather exists around the start of March with fair weather before and again after. Temperatures mostly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Lots to monitor the next few days as our pattern sets up to feature cold high pressure in Canada, continued milder air to our south, and a boundary between them hanging out in our general region. Today, a weak disturbance moving through this morning will bring a touch of light snow and perhaps a few patches of freezing drizzle to the region. The latter could create some slipper spots on any untreated surfaces, but this will not be widespread. Another surge of moisture comes along the boundary on Wednesday, producing a rather narrow area of snow / mix / rain in a west-northwest to east-southeast orientation across our region. The higher snow chances are to the north, while rain and pockets of sleet occur to the south, with a trend for a rain and mix to snow line to drift southward with time, but this will only last about 6 to 10 hours before it pushes off to the southeast and drier air arrives later at night. Dry conditions and some sunshine are expected on Thursday before the next moisture surge arrives later on Friday with another round of snow / mix / rain from sometime that afternoon through Friday night. The disturbance that causes that will organize into a slightly stronger low pressure area as it departs by early Saturday, and upper level low pressure moving through can trigger some additional snow showers on Saturday.

TODAY: Cloudy this morning with a couple periods of very light to light snow and a few potential pockets of freezing drizzle. Clouds break for sun at times this afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind S up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow arrives midday on. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Mix/snow probable evening with snow accumulation of a coating to 1 1/2 inch, except pockets of 1 1/2 to 3 inches possible in higher elevations mainly north of Route 2. Lows 28-35. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with mix/snow, tapering off overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

General “battle-zone” pattern stays in place heading into the final week of February. Watching another storm passing to the south later February 22, favoring a weaker, progressive system with some lighter snowfall here. Fair weather interlude follows before more unsettled / wintry weather threatens by late period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Wintry weather threat ends February and another may start March before fair, cold weather ends the period.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

As previously prognosticated, low pressure passed far enough south to keep its precipitation shield mainly to the south overnight, and the process is finishing off this morning. Even though on radar you see the northern edge of the precipitation (snow) over Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket, the air at the surface is too dry for anything to reach the ground there. Some mid level clouds sit across much of our region underneath a higher cloud shield to start the day, but as low pressure departs seaward, we’ll trend back to some sunshine as today goes on, only to see more clouds arrive from the west at day’s end, and overtake the sky tonight into early Tuesday morning. This is from a northern stream low pressure disturbance that will pass over and north of our region early Tuesday, producing some scattered snow showers, enough to create some dustings in some areas. Fair weather returns during the day Tuesday, but this doesn’t last long. As previously discussed, the pattern shifts into one that features cold high pressure building from central through eastern Canada while mild Pacific air still resides in much of the continental US. The battle line (aka frontal boundary) that marks the battle between these air masses will situate itself near and south of New England from mid to late week. We’ll eye two waves of low pressure set to come along that boundary. The first of these approaches Wednesday and passes by at night, producing a period of precipitation from Wednesday afternoon into night. With borderline temperatures, we will likely see a variation from rain to the south to a mix/snow to the north, likely ending as snow/mix at night. Currently, this looks like a relatively minor event, but we will have to watch for a rather narrow band of somewhat heavier precipitation that can exist with this system, at least for a brief time. Drier air Thursday means some sun tries to return, but the next low pressure waves clouds us back up by Friday when we eye another area of precipitation approaching with a rain/mix/snow chance that afternoon and night.

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun which later on give way to clouds – all with a west to east progression. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a snow shower possible early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain/mix/snow arrives west to east afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Mix/snow probable evening, ending overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds break for sun at times. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds re-thicken overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives afternoon-night. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

The late-week system lingers with some precipitation into the start of the weekend on February 21, with a couple lingering snow showers possible February 22 as a colder air mass arrives underneath an upper low while the surface features moves away to the east. Expecting dry weather February 23-24 with the next precipitation threat presenting itself at the end of the period with the next system moving in from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

Near to below normal temps. Unsettled start, fair weather mid period, unsettled again late period, based on the expectation of a continued active storm track.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Low pressure will pass well south of New England tonight. Its cloud shield will filter / dim the sun as today goes on followed by the reverse process on Monday as the low pressure area heads out to sea. There will be a trough between that offshore system and another disturbance well to its northwest. Some light snow will be generated by this boundary to the west of our region but is likely to dry up in battle with dry air before ever reaching the WHW forecast area other than maybe a few stray snowflakes into CT overnight. The aforementioned disturbance in the northern jet stream will pass through our region, parent low pressure passing to our north, Monday night and Tuesday morning with perhaps a few light snow showers. We start to see the results of a shift in the weather pattern when we get to the middle of this coming week. High pressure will be building from central to eastern Canada with plenty of cold air up there, while mild Pacific air still occupies a lot of the central and eastern US. The boundary between these will establish itself somewhere in the Northeast starting Wednesday and a wave of low pressure will be coming along it, bringing clouds back into our region during Wednesday, including the chance of some precipitation later Wednesday to early Thursday, based on current expecting timing. Precipitation type will be determined by the timing / atmospheric profile, but rain/mix/snow are all on the table as possible. However, I do think this system will be on the wane, in terms of ability to produce precipitation, as it moves eastward, so at this point I’m not expecting a significant event, and we should see some drying on Thursday behind it. With the boundary so close by, the temperature forecast those days is a little tricky, so keep in mind that the numbers that I put up in that detailed forecast that follows can change a little more than is typical as I update this forecast over the next few days…

TODAY: Sunny start, then increasing clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. An overnight snow flurry possible eastern CT. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy start, then increasing sun. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a snow shower possible early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain/mix/snow possible afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Mix/snow probable evening, diminishing chances overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds break for sun at times. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Watching for another unsettled weather threat with boundary nearby early in the period, then some snow showers mid period with upper low passing by, followed by fair and somewhat colder weather late period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Pattern trends a little colder and potentially stormier during the final days of February to the start of March with Canadian cold becoming more dominant but boundary region still nearby to the south.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

A small, quick-moving upper low crosses New England today and can result in a few snow showers, however most of the region will remain dry with just some varying amounts of cloud cover, most extensive this morning and more 50/50 with sun this afternoon. Continuing to monitor a storm set to pass south of our region from late Sunday through early Monday. We’ll get under its cloud shield while its precipitation shield will stay south of the region. This is a southern stream system and will be followed by a northern stream system that will pass north of our region Monday night and early Tuesday with some additional cloudiness and perhaps a snow flurry. As we head toward the middle of next week, cold high pressure builds in east central Canada while a warm front approaches our region, increasing the cloud cover by Wednesday. More about this part of the pattern evolution in the 6-10 day section. Detailed 5-day first!

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with perhaps a light snow shower in a few locations this morning, then a sun/cloud mix this afternoon with a late-day snow shower possible, favoring areas to the north of I-90. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, then increasing clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy start, then increasing sun. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a snow shower possible early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

While a frontal boundary (cold to north, mild to south), sits nearby and waves around a bit, the overall trend should be to push southward with stronger than modeled high pressure in eastern Canada. Cannot rule out a couple episodes of precipitation early period, should end up mainly dry with a milder start and a colder finish to this period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Leaning toward colder with one or two wintry precipitation threat potentials down the home stretch of February.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

High pressure provides fair and seasonably chilly weather today, though if outside you will notice it feeling “not so cold” with the lack of wind and the higher sun angle. A quick-moving disturbance passes by early Saturday around the base of an upper low moving across southeastern Canada and northern New England. Most of the snow shower activity with this system should dry up but a few may survive the trip across our area in the pre-dawn to mid morning. I can’t rule out one more wandering down from northern New England later in the day too as the upper low departs. Weak high pressure brings fair weather Sunday. Low pressure in the southern jet stream will be passing south of our region Sunday night and Monday. It’s cloud shield will be about all we see from that. During the same time frame, a northern jet stream disturbance will be coming our way, passing just to our north late Monday and early Tuesday with some clouds and perhaps a snow shower, with fair weather returning for the balance of Tuesday as it departs the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds return overnight with a snow shower chance favoring areas west of Boston pre-dawn. Lows 14-21. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Chance of snow showers, favoring early morning and late afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy with most sun midday. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a snow shower possible early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Briefly milder middle of next week before Canadian high pressure cuts off further warming and chills the region back down. What I’m not sure of yet is how close the boundary between mild air south and cold air north will be. Medium range model trends have been to place this boundary further south the last 48 hours and I don’t believe that trend of model adjustment is done. So while these current model runs show some unsettled weather one or two times heading toward the end of next week, I am leaning toward a drier regime here. Will monitor.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Continuing to see a trend for a colder pattern and potential wintry precipitation event or two before February is over.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Back-side influence of upper low pressure (and a larger surface storm well to our east and northeast) will continue today. This comes in the form of morning snow showers from the Seacoast of NH through northeastern MA with lots of coastal cloudiness, and a gusty breeze across the region through the day. A difference between this post-storm air mass and many others this winter is that this one is not of arctic origin, and while the wind definitely has a bite, the less-cold air mass combined with the higher sun angle will make the breezy conditions more tolerable today, although that sun I mentioned will probably have to give up sky to more cloudiness as the day goes on – similar to but to a lesser degree than yesterday. High pressure to our southwest expands northeastward enough to shut the wind down and clear the sky more for tonight and Friday. We then look to a small but potent disturbance at upper levels with a surface trough reflection to move through the region on Saturday. While most of that day will see fair weather, there is a decent shot of one or two rounds of snow showers between the pre-dawn and sunset hours – basically a day to just keep an eye on the sky and radar if you have outside and travel plans, as any of these snow showers can be visibility-cutters, albeit for brief periods of time. This weekend is a holiday weekend for many, and as we get to Sunday we see fair and seasonable weather, but will be keeping an eye on low pressure to our southwest. This system has been under the expected media scrutiny all week (will it? won’t it?). I do not think we’re in from a hit from this system as it fails to phase with another system well to the north. This leaves us with the expectation for fair weather here again for Monday, though it may start as a cloudy day with the system passing by to our south before the sun returns for a while. However, more clouds arrive from the west later, these being associated with the northern system that the southern system will not be phasing with.

TODAY: Lots of clouds eastern coastal areas with some snow flurries NH Seacoast and northeastern MA into mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-17 rural and valley areas, 15-22 elsewhere, mildest coastal plain and urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifts to W then drops to near calm.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds return overnight with a snow shower chance favoring areas west of Boston pre-dawn. Lows 14-21. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Chance of snow showers, favoring early morning and late afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy with most sun midday. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

This presents as a fairly quiet period with one interruption about February 18 as low pressure passes to our north with a minor precipitation event far more likely than something more significant. Lack of arctic air, abundance of Pacific air, which means temperatures for the 5-day period near to slightly above normal, the mild air modified (cooled) by existing snow cover. However, the snow cover, subjected to the relatively mild air and higher sun angle, will be accelerating its “shrinkage” as time goes on.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Following a trend back toward a colder pattern and potential wintry precipitation event or two before month’s end.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

Low pressure redeveloped east of our region last night and will move northeastward toward Atlantic Canada through Thursday. A trough coming around the back side of this system will bring a snow shower and snow squall chance this evening after fair weather today. Fair weather returns Thursday though it will be breeze between the storm well to our northeast and high pressure to the southwest of New England. High pressure noses into the region with fair and more tranquil weather for Friday before a small but potent disturbance will bring a cold front through the region Saturday with a snow shower chance. This will be followed by fair weather on Sunday, but some increase in cloudiness later as the next low pressure approaches the East Coast from the west (more about this system in the next section after the detailed forecast).

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers and snow squalls from southern NH through central and eastern MA prior to midnight with accumulation of up to 1/2 inch possible. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Chance of snow showers. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Watching for a potential storm threat for February 16 but leaning toward a pass out to sea to the south. Will monitor trends and update the outlook for this day accordingly. Fair and seasonable weather a good portion of next week following this threat.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

A couple disturbances passing through triggering some up-and-down temperatures and minor precipitation threats, but no major storminess is indicated during this period. A stronger shot of cold air may arrive late in the period.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 10-14)

A clipper-low will slide east southeastward rapidly today and tonight, with the low center passing just north of our area – across northern New England – during this evening, while it is maturing and its warm front / cold front combo is in the process of occluding (when the cold front catches up to the warm front starting at the low center and progressing away from it). One band of snow will move across our region ahead of the warm front / occlusion, with a second, slightly heavier band of precipitation along the cold front / occlusion. It looks like the occluding part of the frontal boundaries will cross southern NH and northern MA, while southern MA and CT /RI get briefly into the warm sector behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front before the latter passes through those areas. The further north you are, the less break (or no break) you will see between the snow areas with the two fronts. The further south you are, the shorter snow period number 1 will be, and the second period will come also in a somewhat shorter burst that will be mixed with rain the closer to the South Coast and Cape Cod you are, due to the brief intrusion of warmer air that occurs in those location. As expected, the accumulation of snow with this system will reflect what I just described. I’m looking for only a coating to 1 inch along the South Coast, 1 to 3 inches from a Providence RI / Hartford CT line northward with closer to 1 inch favored the further south you are and a build up the further north you go, and finally 3 to 5 inches north of Route 2 from far north central MA across southern NH into northeastern MA, with most areas toward the lower side of this range while the maximum amounts occur in a rather small zone from south central NH (Manchester / Concord area) to the NH Seacoast and northern Essex County MA. This precipitation event will end from northwest to southeast across the WHW forecast area from about 11 p.m. to 3 a.m. During the overnight hours into the daytime hours of Wednesday, the low pressure area will redevelop offshore to the east of New England, and as it moves away, the old low pressure area to the north will transform into an inverted trough behind the new low pressure center, and as the latter’s center intensifies and heads toward Atlantic Canada, it will pull the inverted trough southward around the back side of its circulation. It is this trough that will then bring the chance of snow showers to southeastern NH and eastern MA Wednesday evening. This part of the event looks slightly less impressive on short range guidance than it did 24 hours ago, however the opportunity does exist, and anybody who experiences a snow shower could see a minor additional accumulation of snow and briefly low visibility. Thursday’s weather will be blustery and seasonably chilly with a fair amount of clouds mixed with some sun as our area sits underneath the western side of upper level low pressure and in a northwesterly air flow behind the departed low pressure area which will by then be a larger storm in Atlantic Canada, while a high pressure area builds across the Ohio Valley. That high, while passing to our south, does nose northeastward enough to result in more sun and less wind on Friday, which despite being a seasonably chilly day as well, will feel less cold than Thursday now to the noticeably-increasing sun angle as we enter mid February. On Saturday, I’m watching a small but potent disturbance dropping southeastward out of Canada that will drag a cold front our way and bring the chance of some passing snow showers that day.

TODAY: Sunshine fades behind increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast evening with snow likely, however a brief break in precipitation especially I-90 belt southward, and some rain mixed in late evening along the South Coast. Snow and South Coast mix ends northwest to southeast late evening into overnight followed by breaking clouds. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers southeastern NH and eastern MA evening. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Watching the period from late February 15 through February 16 for potential impact from low pressure. Track of storm system is uncertain, but currently leaning toward a graze or miss as it passes to the south. Fair, seasonably cold weather follows for February 17-19.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

A couple disturbances passing through triggering some up-and-down temperatures and minor precipitation threats, but no major storminess is indicated during this period. A stronger shot of cold air may arrive at the very end of the period.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 9-13)

While this week will be quieter overall than recent weather has been, it won’t be without a little winter action. We start with a cold and dry day today with high pressure in control, but a quick-moving clipper low will race our way via the Great Lakes Tuesday, with advancing clouds after a little early-day sun. By day’s end into evening, thicker overcast will produce a swath of snow across the region with some accumulation. While it’s not destined to be a major snowfall, it will cause some travel disruption for a few hours, especially in areas near and north of I-90 where it will be steadiest and heaviest. The snow may be mixed with some rain along the South Coast initially due to slightly milder air in place there. This tapers off later at night, but as the low starts to intensify offshore as it departs on Wednesday, an inverted trough swinging around its back side will initiate some snow showers and snow squalls, mainly in southeastern NH and eastern MA during the afternoon to early evening. Coverage should be pretty widespread with some reduced visibility and minor additional accumulation before they pull away to the south and southeast by mid evening. Fair, seasonably chilly weather follows this for Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds in.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 except -3 to +4 in some lower elevations. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine fades behind increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow in the evening, may start mixed with rain along the South Coast – snow accumulation of a coating to 1 inch South Coast, 1 to 3 inches I-90 belt, 3 to 5 inches north of Route 2 with highest amounts in northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Snow ends with breaking clouds overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers and snow squalls from north to south in the afternoon, favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA with minor additional accumulation possible. Highs 30-37. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

Unsettled weather potential mid period but next storm system may be a miss to the south. Overall pattern is quieter with slightly variable but mostly near normal temperatures for mid February.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

No big changes. Up-and-down temps but averaging not far from normal for season. Watching for a couple disturbances but no strong indications of major storminess at this time.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 8-12)

The region is now in the deep freeze following yesterday’s chaotic snow event, that despite my description, played out very much as expected. The arctic air mass that came in at its conclusion stays with us today and eases its grip starting Monday. Before that happens, today we will see a few ocean-effect snow flurries on Outer Cape Cod, and tonight, an area of high and mid level clouds can spin back southwest to south over our sky on the back side of the upper low from the just-departed storm system. After the quieter interlude Monday, the next weather system to contend with will be a fast-moving low pressure area passing north of our region late Tuesday into Wednesday. This system will have limited moisture to work with. Its warm front will produce a light snowfall in the region Tuesday evening, while its cold front can produce a few snow showers Wednesday morning. This system is going to redevelop off the coast to our southeast Wednesday night and Thursday before moving away, and while being far enough out to avoid significant impact, it may throw an inverted trough back toward the coast enough for additional snow showers in eastern sections Thursday morning – something to watch for.

TODAY: Cape Cod clouds and snow flurries especially Mid Cape eastward, diminishing this afternoon. Elsewhere, sunshine but high and mid level clouds patches arrive from north to south late in the day. Highs 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts around 30 MPH. Wind chill often near to below zero.

TONIGHT: Patchy clouds early, then clearing. Lows -3 +4 except 5-12 Cape Cod and some urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -3 to + 5 except 5-12 Cape Cod and urban centers. Wind NW to W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Good chance of light snow late-day, favoring areas north of I-90. Highs 25-32. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow likely in the evening, accumulating a coating to 2 inches, favoring areas north of I-90. Lows 22-29 early but may rise slightly later. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a snow shower in the morning. Highs 30-37. Wind SW shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

Watching for some mid-period unsettled weather but still no strong indications of a major event. Temperatures variable, averaging out near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

No big changes looking ahead. Up-and-down temps but averaging not far from normal for season. Watching for a couple disturbances but no strong indications of major storminess at this time.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)

A snowy Saturday, a result of the complex evolution / redevelopment of low pressure that was initially starting to pass to our north but ends up as an ocean storm to our south and moving out to sea tonight. During this process the snow takes place with one large general synoptic area as well as some enhanced ocean-effect bands and some focused heavier convective snow areas due to an inverted trough combined with an arctic boundary. When it’s all done, a general light to moderate snowfall occurs everywhere with the exception of heavier bands of snow accumulation where ocean-effect and trough-enhanced snowfall is maximized, still seeming like it will focus on northeastern MA and parts of the MA South Shore, and along a slowing arctic boundary in eastern CT, western RI, and adjacent far south central MA. The final snow amounts can end up highly variable from one location to another just a few miles away, but below I’ll give you my best-guess final call on this event, which wraps up by this evening. Note: I think if one location is going to exceed even my highest forecast number of 10 inches, it will be somewhere in Essex County MA. Tonight we have a few lingering snow flurries early with the full-on arrival of arctic air, which will be with us through Sunday night, along with wind and pretty brutal wind chills, as well as blowing snow to add a bit of insult to injury (unless you like this kind of weather, like I do – haha). If you need to be outside for any length of time tonight through Sunday night, dress accordingly! We’ll see a gradual moderation from the coldest weather Monday and Tuesday, although overnight / early morning low temps will still be quite frigid due to deep snow cover and lessening wind. High pressure brings fair weather on Monday. Timing for our next unsettled threat is a little faster with low pressure looking like it will rocket eastward, clipper-style, and pass just north of our area late Tuesday and early Wednesday. While a few tweaks may be needed, it looks like this system’s warm front can produce some light snowfall later Tuesday and its cold front may produce a snow shower early Wednesday, but it will not be a significant weather-producer.

TODAY: Overcast with snow including heavier snow shower bands favoring the MA North Shore & eventually South Shore regions. Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in general, with pockets of 6 to 10 inches favoring Essex County MA and the MA South Shore, and another such pocket eastern CT, western RI and adjacent southern MA. Isolated greater than 10 inch totals are possible in parts of Essex County. Highs 18-25 except 23-30 Cape Cod / South Coast, but a rapid temperature drop develops from northwest to southeast during the afternoon hours. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, shifting NE to N later in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy early with lingering snow flurries, followed by clearing. Lows 0-7. Wind N to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill -10 to -20.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 11-18. Wind NW 15-25 MPH. Wind chill often below zero.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -5 +2 except 0-7 Cape Cod and some urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -3 to + 5 except 5-12 Cape Cod and urban centers. Wind NW to W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Good chance of light snow late-day, favoring areas north of I-90. Highs 25-32. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow flurry possible. Temperatures nearly steady. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a snow shower in the morning. Highs 30-37. Wind SW shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Watching for some mid-period unsettled weather but currently no strong indications of a major event. Temperatures variable, averaging out near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Up-and-down temperature pattern with one or two more unsettled weather potentials but no major storms expected.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 6-10)

The complex evolution described in yesterday’s blog post is still expected to take place as noted then, but so you don’t have to go back and re-read it, here’s that section basically copied / pasted and tweaked a tad to be current. While high and mid level clouds increase from the west, lower clouds come in from the ocean on a northeasterly air flow today, and these lower clouds can produce a few coastal snow flurries. This is the start of a complex evolution of a weather system which brings our region snow on Saturday. Transfer from low pressure to our north to developing low pressure to our south and southeast takes place, the end result of which is a deepening ocean storm with an inverted trough swinging back through southeastern New England. While a general widespread light snowfall is expected, pockets of moderate accumulation can occur both in the hills of northwestern RI to central MA, more associated with the initial frontal boundary’s arrival and slowing, and more likely in the I-95 belt eastward with the ocean-effect / inverted trough combination. I put numbers to this in the detailed forecast below. At the conclusion of and following this event, in comes a shot of arctic air, along with wind, that will result in extremely cold wind chill readings but dry weather during Sunday. While the wind and cold ease slightly by Monday, it will remain fair and quite cold with arctic high pressure in control. By Tuesday look for a little more in the way of temperature moderation while high pressure continues to dominate with fair weather.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A few coastal snow flurries. Highs 23-30. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A few snow flurries early, then periods of snow late evening and overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow. Heavier snow showers likely at times I-95 belt eastward. Highs 20-27. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with lingering snow showers early, including heavier snow showers likely MA South Shore to Cape Cod. Total snowfall accumulation for the event expected to be 1 to 3 inches in much of the area, but 2 to 4 inches in a few higher elevations of North Central MA and 3 to 6 inches from Cape Ann to the MA South Shore and possibly Cape Cod with isolated greater than 6 inch amounts possible east of the I-95 belt. Clearing overnight. Lows 0-7. Wind N to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH creating blowing snow and wind chill readings below to well below zero.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 10-17. Wind NW 15-25 MPH. Wind chill often below zero.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -5 +2 except 0-7 Cape Cod and some urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 17-24. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -3 to + 5 except 5-12 Cape Cod and urban centers. Wind NW to W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 11-15)

A little faster timing indicated for next unsettled weather threat which is a chance of snow from low pressure passing by just to our south later February 11 into early February 12, however not indicated to be a major storm. Fair weather follows with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

Up-and-down temperature pattern with one or two more unsettled weather potentials but no major storms expected.