DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)
High pressure will hang on with fair weather today, but we’ll see another day of filtered sun, first from lingering high altitude wildfire smoke from Canada, then the arrival of additional high clouds in advance of our next round of unsettled weather. As the upper winds turn more southerly tonight into Friday, we’ll see the smoke be pushed away just in time for the clouds to thicken up. Additionally, early this morning and again tonight we’ll see some patches of low clouds and radiation fog from the light wind and radiational cooling. Eventually later Friday, lower clouds will make an appearance from the ocean on an east to northeast wind as the low levels moisten up. The biggest question to answer: How much impact from low pressure to our south? I think an inverted trough helps bring the most pronounced axis of moisture, initially in the form of showery rain, into the Hudson Valley and western New England, mostly to the west of the WHW forecast area, with a lighter and more scattered rainfall pattern to the east as we move through Friday. And then as an upper trough swings into the region it helps organize a surface low to our south, close enough for a more stratiform rain event, but far enough so that the best coverage of this will be from the I-90 belt southward, with the greatest threat for highest rain amounts in the South Coast region. I’m also still optimistic that despite a potentially cloudy and wet (especially to the south) start to Saturday, the low will begin to wheel away significantly enough so that the weather improves markedly from midday on. I still have to refine the details in the forecast after I’m more certain of this, which I will do on tomorrow morning’s update. And this is how September comes to a close, with another bout of unsettled weather. Ironically as October opens, we’ll see high pressure begin to dominate and we enter a stretch of dry and milder weather starting on Sunday and beyond.
TODAY: Areas of low clouds and fog dissipating by mid morning, otherwise smoke-filtered sunshine. Increasing high clouds later in the afternoon. Highs 62-69. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.
TONIGHT: High-altitude smoke exits as clouds increase. Patchy ground fog. Lows 47-54. Wind E under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers move in from the south during the day, favoring southern and western areas. Highs 60-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring areas near and south of I-90. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind E-NE up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy start including a chance of additional rain mainly from the I-90 belt southward, then rain exits and clouds break for sun north to south midday on, but clouds likely linger along the South Coast for longer. Highs 58-65. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear except foggy areas low elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind N under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Early fog patches dissipate otherwise sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches forming. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 69-76. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)
Several days of dry weather and above normal temperatures with high pressure dominating the region at the surface and aloft. Late-period approach of frontal system and trough returns the chance of unsettled weather to the region.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)
A little trend in the medium range guidance for a little stronger high pressure from the north and an upper trough near or east of the region with low pressure pushed further south than previously depicted. This would be a mostly dry but cooler pattern. A little hesitant to jump on this as a lasting pattern but more as a shot of cool air early in the period followed by a moderation. Will monitor guidance trends.