DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)

A frontal boundary that has been instrumental in our weather so far this week will continue to play a role as we face another messy late winter weather event. It will start slowly today as clouds thicken across the region and a ribbon of precipitation, falling as rain, stretches eastward across eastern CT, RI, into southeastern MA with time, falling pretty lightly any time from midday on. It is tonight that this area of precipitation will solidify and drift northward to encompass the entire region in response to an eastward-moving low pressure area that will pass just south of our region during the first half of the day Friday. With high pressure in eastern Canada supplying cold air, we’re looking at a variety of precipitation. I’m expecting mainly rain for the South Coast, and while the front edge of the precipitation may be in the form of rain as it heads northward, its meeting with colder air will result in a flip to sleet and pockets of snow the further north you go, with this frozen precipitation variety, dominated by sleet, mostly north of I-90, while along and just south of I-90 more of a mix of sleet and rain is expected, but pockets of freezing rain can occur as well, and this is most likely to be seen in higher elevations from northwestern RI through south central MA due to the land elevation forcing the cold air layer to be more shallow, with precipitation reaching the cold surface as rain, rather than ice pellets. It is this area that has the greatest chance of ice accretion that can lead to very slippery travel and some tree branches coming down (increasing the power outage risk). The wildcard on this system is how much snow vs. sleet in parts of northern MA and southern NH, mainly from the Route 2 corridor northward. Right now, I would expected a general coating to 2 inch snow and sleet combination accumulation north of I-90, with 2 to 4 inch potential, more dominated by snow, along and north of the Route 2 corridor, especially away from the coast. I cannot rule out an accumulation exceeding 4 inches in a few locations that stay snow longest. Precipitation tapers off and ends from west to east during the morning and midday hours on Friday. Behind the system, we’re to be left with chilly air trapped at low levels, patches of drizzle or freezing drizzle, and areas of fog, and this can persist into early Saturday morning before a change takes place. This will occur as yet another low pressure area tracks northeastward through the Great Lakes into southern Canada, and an increasing southwesterly air flow gradually scours out the low level cold air. Saturday’s weather will eventually turn out milder, though clouds may remain dominant much of the time. This low’s cold front will slide across the region during Sunday morning and midday with a rain shower risk, followed by some clearing. The air behind that front will not be particularly cold, and will be of modified continental origin rather than the chilly eastern Canadian / maritime air we just experienced, so a milder feel can be enjoyed later Sunday through Monday as drier weather returns to the region.

The switch from Standard Time to Daylight Saving Time takes place on Sunday (2:00 a.m. EST becomes 3:00 a.m. EDT).

TODAY: Fog patches and patchy black ice early to mid morning, otherwise any early sun fades behind thickening clouds. Light rain arrives midday on eastern CT, RI, and into southeastern MA. Highs 40-47. Wind calm early, then E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Areas of fog. Rain overspreads the region but changes to sleet and snow north of I-90 with pockets of freezing rain and sleet to the south except remaining mainly liquid rain South Coast. Greatest chance for freezing rain higher elevation areas of southern MA into northwestern RI. Lows 30-37. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts overnight Cape Cod.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Precipitation (mainly sleet / snow north and mix / rain south) tapering off from west to east by midday with patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle remaining thereafter. Total snow and sleet accumulation ranging from patchy coatings south of I-90 to a solid coating to 2 inches I-90 belt to the Route 2 corridor, with 2 to 4 inches more common north of the Route 2 corridor including isolated 4 to 6 inch amounts in interior southern NH and north central MA. Highs 32-39. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts Cape Cod and eastern coastal areas.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle / freezing drizzle. Foggy areas. Areas of black ice. Lows 30-37. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog and patchy drizzle, then breaking clouds with partial sun at times midday on. Highs 43-50, coolest South Coast. Wind calm early, eventually SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A rain shower possible overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with a rain shower possible in the morning, then clearing. Highs 47-54, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 43-50 South Coast, 50-57 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 10-14)

Watch for a sneaky back-door cold front potential early in the period, but right now leaning toward a strong enough southwesterly air flow to keep that from happening, with above normal temperatures, but modified much cooler air South Coast. A mid period cold front sweeps through with rain shower chances, may mix with snow at end, then a return to seasonably chilly air for mid March later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-19)

Pattern volatility but a trend to colder than normal while we watch for an end-of-spring bout or two of precipitation, which can include frozen precipitation.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)

Any untreated surfaces are likely very icy to start the day today so use caution of heading out prior to late morning, when we should finally see an adequate enough temperature rise to allow more significant melting. After yesterday’s / last night’s messy bout of precipitation, the sky cleared overnight and if it wasn’t already below freezing, it went below in most areas. We’ll have plenty of sun and a “milder” day today, even though a frontal boundary has been pushed to the south of our region – March sunshine is stronger and the source of this air is not that cold. However, the same frontal boundary is not done playing games with us, and its attempted return northward will bring a heavier overcast back into the region during Thursday, and eventually another ribbon of precipitation as a wave of low pressure comes along it Thursday night into Friday. High pressure in eastern Canada will keep the boundary from moving too far north, and low pressure moving along it will pass just to our south, setting up a chilly mixed precipitation event – probably starting as rain and transitioning to a mix of sleet and freezing rain especially north of the Mass Pike with a better chance that plain rain continues to the south. But this will have to be monitored with temperatures in that “borderline” region once again. I don’t think we’ll see any significant snow bursts in the next system, but I can’t rule out some wet snow mixing in over northern MA and southern NH in the early hours of Friday. Precipitation moves out as the wave of low pressure departs to the east during the day on Friday. As we get to the weekend a bit of a transition takes place. We’re first left with chilly air behind the departing low, but another low pressure area will be traveling toward southeastern Canada via the Great Lakes. Eventually, a stronger southwesterly air flow ahead of its trailing cold front will scour out the low level cold we have in place, but this may take until midday Saturday to occur. I do expect that day will feature a lot of clouds, but also a warm-up that you may need patience to enjoy. It should also be a rain-free day, with any rain shower threat associated with the aforementioned frontal boundary waiting until sometime at night. The front will pass through and I expect mainly fair weather on Sunday, but this time we won’t see a strong push of chilly air behind that frontal boundary, so Sunday may turn out to be a decent day despite some cloudiness, but I am optimistic, as far as late winter allows me to be at this point. Also to note: The switch from Standard Time to Daylight Saving Time takes place on Sunday (2:00 a.m. EST becomes 3:00 a.m. EDT).

TODAY: Widespread black ice this morning – use caution walking and/or driving! Plenty of sun / few clouds. Highs 42-49 (may not realized until mid to late afternoon). Wind near calm to start, then W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Patchy black-ice reforms. Lows 31-39. Wind near calm.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain arrives southwest to northeast, but may occur as freezing rain and / or sleet some inland areas especially north of I-90. Lows 31-38. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Rain / ice / sleet – the former most likely south, the latter more likely north, and potentially wet snow mixing in also northern MA and southern NH, with all precipitation tapering off west to east by midday. Highs 33-40. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Foggy areas. Areas of black ice. Lows 30-37. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog, then breaking clouds with partial sun at times midday on. Highs 43-50, coolest South Coast. Wind calm early, eventually SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A rain shower possible. Lows 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)

A milder / warmer spell early to middle of next week before a front brings a ribbon of rain and a turn to chilly weather at the end of the week – timing / details TBD. One thing that may interrupt it is a frontal boundary that slips down from the north and northeast in response to high pressure in eastern Canada. If that takes place, the temperature pattern would be more variable and some additional unsettled weather could occur during the transition to or from the “interruption”.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-18)

Up-and-down temperature pattern with a trend to below normal in the waning days of spring. Temperatures transitions marked by precipitation chances, the details of which are definitely too soon to know. Summary: Volatile mid March pattern expected.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 3-7)

A frontal boundary will be the conveyor belt for low pressure areas passing by our region in the next 5 days. The details of each day will be determined by the position of the front and movement of each low. Today, we start bright and very cold but clouds are already advancing into southwestern portions of the WHW forecast area and will overtake the sky across the remainder of the region through the morning. This afternoon and evening, a wave of low pressure passing by to our south will bring a swath of precipitation which starts as snow and transitions to rain from south to north, but with an interim period of sleet for some areas and where it remains cold enough over the interior, some freezing rain is likely. Minor snowfall accumulation and icing (where it occurs) will be enough for some hazardous travel, especially away from the coast, from late afternoon into late evening. After that low pressure wave goes by, it will drag the front, which tried to come through as a warm front, back to the south as a cold front, enough to allow a bubble of high pressure to be close enough for fair weather, but limited sun, during Wednesday. The front will begin to push back our way as a warm front again during Thursday with more cloudiness, though rain should remain mostly south of the region until the end of day or Thursday night. The next low pressure area will take a track similar to tonight’s as the frontal boundary is forced back to the south by eastern Canadian high pressure, bringing rain but some wintry mix potential for interior and northern areas into Friday before precipitation tapers off. The next low pressure area is set to track well to our north by later Saturday and should do its part to pull the boundary northward once again. That day should still feature a fair amount of clouds, but will turn out milder, but not without a rain shower chance.

TODAY: Clouding over. Snow/sleet southwest to northeast afternoon then transitions to sleet/rain southern areas late-day. Highs 32-39. Wind calm becoming E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow/sleet to rain/freezing rain (inland) evening, ending overnight. Total snow accumulation before changeover, less than 1 inch South Coast, 1 to 3 inches elsewhere, with isolated 3+ amounts favoring higher elevations of north central MA as well as southern NH. Patchy fog forms. Temperatures steady 32-39 early then rise slightly. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, becoming W late.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Fog patches early morning. Highs 42-49. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable then SE by late-day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 32-39. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain arrives by late-day especially south of I-90. Highs 42-49, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely but pockets of sleet and freezing rain possible southern NH and northern MA overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind shifting to NE up to 10 MPH from north to south.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain/ice/sleet morning-midday (freezing/frozen precipitation most likely inland and north). Areas of fog. Highs 35-42. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Foggy areas. Temperatures steady 35-42. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 42-47 South Coast, 48-53 elsewhere, occurring later in the day. Wind calm, becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 8-12)

The switch from Standard Time to Daylight Saving Time takes place on March 8 (2:00 a.m. EST becomes 3:00 a.m. EDT). Low pressure passes north of our region allow it to remain mild to start the period but two cold fronts come through with a downward temperature trend and maybe a couple passing rain showers into early next week, and after a brief cooler interlude the next storm system tracks well to the north with signs of a stronger southwesterly air flow and more pronounced warm-up for a couple days middle of next week. Frontal boundary from west end of period may bring a rain chance but not sure of timing on that this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 13-17)

Colder trend with additional unsettled weather chances that can include wintry precipitation at mid month. Too soon for any details.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 2-6)

A frigid start to your day today with arctic air in place, and while we have about a 20-degree temperature rise during the day, that only brings high temps into the 20s, which is well below normal for early March. Dry weather will prevail as high pressure builds into the region. This high will be overhead tonight allowing another frigid night as we see radiational cooling, but things change quickly on Tuesday as the high slides offshore and low pressure approaches from the southwest. We should have the opportunity to view a selenelion total lunar eclipse (eclipsed moon, reddish in the western sky just before setting, while the sun comes over the horizon in the east) early Tuesday morning before clouds move in and thicken rapidly during the day, leading to an episode of precipitation – snow to rain, with some sleet and freezing rain possible during the transition, and some snow accumulation expected prior to the transition. This will take place as a frontal boundary moves slowly to the north across our region through the night, then slides back to the south overnight after the low pressure wave moves by and drier air ends the precipitation. This will lead to a precipitation-free day on Wednesday with some partial sun possible with a little bubble of high pressure passing by. The front will come back our way on Thursday with clouds thickening again, and rain at night as it turns a little milder, but just as low pressure is set to move through from the west that night into Friday, a push from eastern Canadian high pressure will send the boundary back to the south and colder air will come back, so our event that starts as rain can end up having some sleet and freezing rain involved in it during Friday before it all tapers off later in the day. Additional details will be worked out regarding this system over the next few days.

TODAY: A few passing clouds Outer Cape Cod until midday and some high clouds crossing the southern sky filtering the sun South Coast, otherwise sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to SW late.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows -5 to +2 inland / valleys, 3-10 coast / urban areas. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Clouding over. Snow/sleet arrives southwest to northeast afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind calm becoming SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain in the evening – pockets of freezing rain possible in some locations. Temperatures steady 32-39 early then rise slightly. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, becoming W late.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Fog patches early morning. Highs 42-49. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable then SE by late-day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 32-39. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain arrives by late-day. Highs 42-49. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely but pockets of sleet and freezing rain possible southern NH and northern MA overnight. Lows 32-39. Wind shifting to NE up to 10 MPH from north to south.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain/ice/sleet morning-midday (freezing/frozen precipitation most likely inland and north). Breaking clouds possible later. Highs 35-42. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 7-11)

Frontal boundary pushes back north with milder air and a chance of rain showers on Saturday March 7. Low pressure moving by sends the front back to the south again Sunday March 8 with rain shower chance followed by clearing – mild start then colder later. Dry, chilly early next week before another warm-up occurs toward mid week. The switch from Standard Time to Daylight Saving Time takes place on March 8 (2:00 a.m. EST becomes 3:00 a.m. EDT).

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 12-16)

Briefly above normal temperatures with unsettled weather early in the period marking a switch back to near to below normal temperatures during mid March.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 1-5)

Mother Nature is getting set to give you an example of why “Meteorological Spring” does not automatically mean springlike-weather. After all, the first 19+ days of the it take place during winter. Our reminder comes in the form of an arctic cold front crossing the region today with a minor snow event, which also brings in a very cold air mass that will be with us through Monday and into early Tuesday too. Unlike last Monday, though, we won’t be dealing with any blizzards, just dry and very cold weather. Unsettled weather does make a return as we head to later Tuesday and early Wednesday as low pressure makes a run at the region form the southwest. This one brings milder air, so after our next round of precipitation starts as snow later Tuesday it transitions to sleet then rain (maybe a period of freezing rain for some areas depending on how quickly the surface temperature warms). A weak area of high pressure brings an interlude of drier weather from mid through late Wednesday, but as it stands now the boundary being nearby brings lots of clouds for Thursday. The midweek period will feature slightly milder air here.

TODAY: Cloudy morning-midday with a period of snow or snow showers west to east – accumulations of up to but mainly under 1 inch mostly on existing snowcover and unpaved / non-cement surfaces. Clearing with the return of sun west to east this afternoon. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH during the morning, NW 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 3-10. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts in the evening. Wind chill often below 0.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts in the morning, diminishing later on.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows -5 to +2 inland / valleys, 3-10 coast / urban areas. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Clouding over. Snow/sleet arrives southwest to northeast afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind calm becoming SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain in the evening – pockets of freezing rain possible in some locations. Temperatures steady 32-39 early then rise slightly. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, becoming W late.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Fog patches early morning. Highs 42-49. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable then SE by late-day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 32-39. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 6-10)

Low level cold, upper level warm-up translates to a rain/ice/sleet chance as low pressure moves in March 6. Chance of getting into the warm sector to start next weekend (March 7) before a cold front brings back chilly weather to end the weekend (March 8) based on current timing and expected track of low pressure. Fair, chilly to seasonable weather late period as high pressure moves in. Note of reminder: The switch from Standard Time to Daylight Saving Time takes place on March 8 (2:00 a.m. EST becomes 3:00 a.m. EDT).

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 11-15)

Looking for unsettled weather early period marking a transition from seasonably cool to above normal temperatures, but lasting for a brief period before colder weather makes a return at the end of the period as the volatile late winter pattern continues.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

High pressure slides east of our region today and a milder southern air flow develops in its wake. Had we bare ground, the temperature would likely rise well beyond 50, but a deep snow pack in place, acting as a refrigerant, will modify the air. After we see some fog patches this morning due to the milder, slightly more moist air moving over that snow cover, we’ll see plenty of sunshine, and while it warms, the limitation due to snow cover will hold our high temps back to the middle 40s to lower 50s at warmest. There will even be a bit of a cooling influence from a southerly breeze off the water near the South Coast. The brief mild spell comes to an end in two stages this weekend, the first being with the passage of a cold front tonight. This will produce a few rain showers ahead of it and is an example of a cata-front (precipitation ahead of the boundary) although the vast majority of such activity will occur north of the WHW forecast area – there may be a brief one passing through parts of northern MA and southern NH. A secondary cold front, of arctic origin, and an example of an ana-front (precipitation behind the boundary) will take place on Sunday, and this will be what brings us a period of snow with generally minor accumulation from late morning to late afternoon – northwest to southeast. Very cold air will be with us Sunday night through early Tuesday with dry conditions as we get a visit from the arctic. The active weather pattern rolls on though and the next disturbance approaches later Tuesday with the advance of milder air, and I’m looking at a snow to sleet to rain situation for late Tuesday into a portion of Wednesday, the details of this still having to be worked out.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. An isolated rain shower possible in the evening, mainly north of Route 2. Watch for areas of black ice overnight from re-freezing melt-water. Lows 23-30. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts early, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. A burst of snow/graupel possible from northwest to southeast late morning to midday followed by steadier light snow with accumulation of a coating to 2 inches, greatest in higher elevations, tapering off from northwest to southeast later in the day. Highs 30-37 in the morning followed by falling temperatures. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 5-12. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-12. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow / sleet / rain late-day from west to east. Highs 33-40, occurring late-day. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Mix to rain likely. Temperatures rise slightly to 35-42. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy start with rain ending, including areas of fog. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)

Unsettled stretch of weather with a frontal boundary in the area and waves of low pressure moving along it through mid period, then a drying trend. Temperatures variable, averaging close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)

Additional periods of unsettled weather. A brief warm up early and/or mid period with the potential for a cold shot late period.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

High pressure brings fair weather and seasonable weather today followed by a milder Saturday to end the month of February and accelerate the snow-melt. But winter is not done with us yet, despite the “meteorological” version of it having its final day Saturday. An initial cold front will pass by that evening and will be moisture-starved, producing no more than a few isolated rain showers, but a stronger secondary cold front is inbound for Sunday, with more moisture to work with, and this one will produce a period of snow along and behind the boundary with some accumulation, also introducing much colder air. We then have a late-winter version of the deep freeze for Monday with arctic air in place, but with fair weather. Tuesday, clouds will increase ahead of what will be that frontal boundary attempting a return as a warm front, and we’ll have to watch the timing of an area of snow/mix to see if it arrives before Tuesday runs out of calendar time. TBD.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. An isolated rain shower possible in the evening. Lows

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow of a coating to 1 inch coastal plain and 1 to 3 inches inland – greatest amount in higher elevations. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 6-13. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-12. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix at night. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 4-8)

Unsettled stretch of weather with a frontal boundary in the area and waves of low pressure moving along it. Timing of greatest threats of precipitation are to-be-determined, but the entire period is vulnerable. Temperatures near to below normal but can be somewhat variable.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 9-13)

Fair weather is back for early in the period before additional unsettled weather. Brief warming trend potential in here.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

February’s got 3 days left in it, and they’ll give us mainly fair weather and manageable temperatures. However, there is a word of caution for this morning – and hopefully you’re reading this before you go outside, because depending on your location there can be some very slippery untreated surfaces out there due to freeze-up of snow-melt, and in some areas additional moisture on the ground from a batch of convective showers ranging from snow to sleet to freezing rain around midnight, which was occuring with the passage of a cold front. This front trailed from the low pressure area that sent its warm front through earlier Wednesday with a batch of snow (light accumulations) and some rain to the south. Other than the icy ground and some patchy freezing fog this morning, we’ll see a day of fair weather today, but some clouds will increase in the sky as we move through the afternoon, especially to the south, as a low pressure area starts to move by to our south. It looks like its snow shield will stay just offshore of the South Coast through this evening before the system moves away and high pressure builds in with fair, cool weather on Friday. On Saturday, the final day of the month, a moisture-starved cold front will move through with some passing clouds, but I am not expecting any precipitation to occur with this one. Sunday, the first day of March, another disturbance will move through during the morning and midday, and this one will have some moisture to work with – the result being a period of snow and mixed precipitation. And the active pattern continues Monday as another low pressure area passes just to our south bringing clouds, but probably keeping its precipitation offshore of the South Coast, similar to what occurs late today. I’ll keep an eye on that in case it trends further north.

TODAY: Sun then clouds increase. Highs 35-42. Wind W to N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds then clearing. Lows 5-12 except 13-20 coastal and urban areas. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunshine dominates. Highs 33-40. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 17-24. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with snow likely in the morning, then increasing sun in the afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. Highs 24-31. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)

Boundary between milder south and colder north with active jet stream means unsettled weather chances March 4 and again March 6-7, based on current timing expectations. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)

Unsettled weather potentials start and end the period with fair weather between, which may include a brief warming trend.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Interesting early morning temperature distribution in the region. The sky stayed clear longer overnight in a portion of southeastern MA (especially Plymouth County) with calm wind and perfect conditions for radiational cooling. As of 6:00 a.m. the temperatures were below 10 in much of that region, but quickly ranged up to the 20s many other areas, even some lower 30s nearer the South Coast. The coldest will be eliminated fairly quickly as some weather changes take place during this morning. Low pressure travels north of our region today and early tonight. Its warm front produces a period of snow this morning except mix/rain into this afternoon on Cape Cod, and its cold front can bring a shower of snow/mix north, mix/rain south from west to east across the region this evening. A small area of high pressure brings a fair weather interlude during the day Thursday before a low pressure wave travels south of our region at night. This system may be close enough to produce a quick period of light snow near the South Coast, but should otherwise be more “miss” than “hit”. Fair weather returns for Friday and continues into Saturday, but a strong cold front coming through the region later Saturday may produce a rain or snow shower in some locations, leading to a shot of windy, cold, dry weather as March begins on Sunday.

TODAY: Cloudy morning and midday with a period of snow of up to but mostly under 1 inch, except mix/rain South Coast / Cape Cod with no accumulation, followed by breaking clouds from west to east. Highs 32-39, coldest central MA to mildest Cape Cod area. Wind variable up to 10 MPH this morning becoming SW 5-15 MPH with a few higher gusts this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy with a possible shower of snow / sleet north of I-90, sleet / rain I-90 southward mid evening to a little after midnight from west to east. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow possible near the South Coast. Lows 22-29. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Early clouds, then sun returns. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind NW to W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Plenty of sun, then late clouds with a rain or snow shower possible. Highs 37-44. Wind W to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a snow shower possible early, then clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind shifting to NW 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)

Wave of low pressure passes close by or to south March 2 – precipitation threat but may just miss area. Additional disturbances bring precipitation opportunities March 4 and 6, based on current timing in an active pattern. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)

Active pattern with additional unsettled weather possibilities. More prominent temperature variability may occur depending on tracks of weather system as we will be near a general boundary between milder air to the south and cold air in Canada.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

High pressure brings fair weather today to aid in storm cleanup / recovery efforts, which will obviously take some time in the hardest-hit areas from the MA South Coast to South Shore and in much of RI too, both due to the zone of highest snowfall and also many power outages aided by strong winds from the storm that has finally moved away, but will be talked about for a long time to come. And you probably don’t want to hear that we’re not done with the active pattern. The good news is I don’t see a repeat of what just happened by any stretch any time soon, and most certainly not in the upcoming several days. The next system comes our way via the Great Lakes and is good for a light snow fall Wednesday morning. A follow up low passes just south of our area on Thursday night and early Friday, and may just miss, or graze the region with a light snowfall before fair weather returns during Friday and through Saturday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 21-28. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow of 1 to 3 inches north of I-90, a mix of snow/sleet/rain to the south with less than 1 inch of snow. Highs 31-38. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow, favoring southern areas, overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy early with a chance of snow in southern areas, followed by clearing. Highs 32-39. Wind NE shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 1-5)

Watching March 1-2 for a threat of unsettled weather (rain/snow threat). Temperatures near to below normal with a strong cold shot possible late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 6-10)

Watching March 6-7 for another potential stretch of unsettled weather (rain/mix/snow threat). Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Storm day. And it’s a decent winter storm with bands of heavy snow interspersed with lighter areas, typical for an intensifying storm, which is passing southeast of our region today. And as it does so, the bands of heavier snow with lulls of lighter snow will continue through the morning before a taper-off progresses west to east during the afternoon, with the result being heaviest amounts southwest of Boston, but still significant amounts in much of the remainder of the region, with relative low(er) spots in southeastern NH and far northeastern MA due to less time in heavier snow, and over Outer Cape Cod and especially Nantucket due to wetter snow. Minor to moderate coastal flooding occurs at east-facing and north-facing locations around high tide hours, limited by astronomical tides that are not that high, thankfully. Where heavy snow and strong wind combines there is a higher risk of power outages. The area most likely to experience blizzard conditions (3+ hours of visibility 1/4 mile or less due to falling and/or blowing snow, sustained wind or frequent wind gusts of 35 MPH or greater) will be from Cape Ann through Boston to southeastern MA. With intense bands of snow, thunder is possible, with highest chance of this occurring south of Boston until midday. The storm exits tonight and as clean-up and recovery progress on Tuesday it will do so with fair weather as high pressure moves in. But we are still in an active pattern and the next low pressure system is coming our way for Wednesday via the Great Lakes. This system is expected to be minor in comparison, bringing some snow, mix, and rain, with up to a few inches of snow favoring areas mostly north of I-90. Today I’m a little more optimistic about another break Thursday before the next storm system, passing just to the south based on current indications, brings a snow and mix chance back to us on Friday.

TODAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times morning, including the chance of thunder, especially south of I-90. Snow tapering off west to east afternoon. Accumulations of 10-18 inches in general, but some areas of under 10 inches can exist, favoring far northeastern MA and southeastern NH, as well as Outer Cape Cod and especially Nantucket. A band or two of accumulation of 18-25 inches is most likely from the Plymouth MA to Providence RI areas into parts of eastern CT. Highs 27-34, coldest well inland, mildest Cape Cod. Wind NE 20-35 MPH, gusts 45-65 MPH, strongest along the coast where some gusts in the 65-75 MPH range can occur.

TONIGHT: Clouds break. Lows 20-27. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 21-28. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow of 1 to 3 inches north of I-90, a mix of snow/sleet/rain to the south with less than 1 inch of snow. Highs 32-39. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Precipitation ends. Lows 25-32. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/snow. Highs 31-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

Watching March 1-2 for a threat of unsettled weather (rain/snow threat). Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)

Watching March 5-7 for another potential stretch of unsettled weather (rain/mix/snow threat). Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

A cloudy but quiet Sunday ahead of a winter storm that will whack the region with snow and wind tonight and Monday as low pressure emerging off the Mid Atlantic Coast intensifies rapidly and passes southeast of New England. The closer to the coast you are the wetter the snow will be. A coastal front will separate temperatures closer to freezing from temperatures below freezing – the boundary being in the vicinity of I-95 during the storm. Wetter snow combined with strongest wind gusts in the coastal plain make chances of power outages much higher in these locations. Mildest air and wettest snow holds accumulations down somewhat over Cape Cod and the Islands. Areas just west of the coastal front can maximize accumulation due to enhancement of snowfall. We also have to watch for not only bands of heavier snowfall, but bands of drier air where snow can be less intense. Thundersnow is a low chance but is possible in some of the heavier snow bands. The peak of the storm will be during the 12 hours from midnight to noon Monday with a quick increase leading into it and a slow wind-down following it. The NWS has issued a blizzard warning from the NH Seacoast through coastal Essex County, Metro Boston, all of southeastern MA, and RI. These are the areas most likely to see blizzard criteria met – sustained winds or frequent wind gusts of 35 MPH or greater and visibility under 1/4 mile for at least 3 hours. Accumulation expectation is 10 to 18 inches for most areas with the most likely area failing to reach 10 being Cape Cod and the Islands and isolated greater-than-18 inch pockets a potential under any quasi-stationary bands of heaviest snow. Storm wind-down is complete by Monday night then we get a break with high pressure bringing fair weather Tuesday. The next low pressure system comes our way via the Great Lakes Wednesday with some snow/mix/rain. This one will not be a major event. Unsettled weather lingers into Thursday as well and the next storm system approaches by late Thursday from the Ohio Valley with another rain/mix/snow threat. More details on the midweek unsettled episodes in the next post.

TODAY: Cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives south to north, heavy at times late evening and overnight. Thunder possible near South Coast overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind NE increasing to 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coast with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times morning, including the chance of thunder. Snow tapering off west to east afternoon. Highs 27-34, coldest well inland, mildest Cape Cod. Wind NE 15-35 MPH, gusts 40-60 MPH, strongest along the coast.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow likely. Highs 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional rain/mix/snow expected. Lows 26-33. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Clearing out February 27 based on current timing. Briefly dry weather, then next unsettled weather threat comes in the March 1-2 time frame. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)

One or two additional unsettled weather threats as the active pattern continues in early March. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

The low pressure system that’s been impacting our weather since yesterday lingers today as some additional snow shower activity continues with an elongated area of low pressure stretching across the region. While this system has produced up to a few inches of snow – not a heavy snowfall accumulation – it has been a sticky and wet snow for many areas, a bit harder to clear than many of our events this winter. But it does come to an end today as slightly drier air arrives on the back side of departing low pressure. However we get little time to breathe as the next storm system organizes off the Mid Atlantic Coast Sunday then intensifies and tracks northeastward, passing southeast of New England Sunday night and early Monday. This will be a higher-impact system with snow and wind, as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding issues around high tide times. The question still to be answered is snowfall amounts, with guidance ranging from the classic hit and maximum snow potential to a a track a little further offshore with the heaviest snowfall further southeast and less to the northwest. I favor the latter by a slight margin, but with the storm close enough to produce a significant accumulation throughout the region. Initial accumulation forecast (most of this falling from late Sunday evening until midday Monday): Greater than 4 inches regionwide, greater than 8 inches I-95 belt, and greater than 12 inches southeastern MA and RI. I’ll be refining this in comments below and with the Sunday morning update. The storm moves away late Monday with fair weather returning and continuing into the middle of next week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering snow showers this morning. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow, heaviest I-95 belt eastward and I-90 belt southward. Lows 24-31. Wind NE increasing to 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coast with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Overcast with snow, heaviest I-95 belt eastward and I-90 belt southward during the morning, tapering off in the afternoon with breaking clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind 15-35 MPH, strongest coast, gusts 35-55 MPH, strongest higher elevations and coast.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

Watching for two separate systems bringing unsettled weather, the first in the February 26-27 time frame, the second in the March 1-2 time frame. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)

Fair weather early period, unsettled weather returns later in the period as the active pattern continues. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

The next weather event in our active pattern stares us in the face this morning and while some areas saw a colorful sunrise, an overcast day is ahead. As approaching low pressure nudges a frontal boundary northward toward our area, the precipitation shield it generates will overspread the region starting by midday. With borderline temperatures in place we can see it start as rain or a mix the closer to the coast and further south you are, and snow to the northwest, and the snow should be dominant at first, but warmer air moving in at mid levels eventually means more mixing and rain, especially south of the Route 2 corridor, and this will limit or even prevent accumulation of any snow / sleet the further south you go. Yesterday’s forecast ranges remain in place for this update, but I am leaning toward the lower ends of them. This will include some additional minor accumulation as the low pressure area redevelops along the front that never quite makes it through the region, and pulls slightly colder air back to the south later tonight into Saturday, when some lingering light snow and snow showers can occur not only during the day, but even into the evening. These accumulations, stretched out over 24 hours, while not impressive, will be even less so in real time since they occur not on a quick burst, but over a longer time period. Expectations: Coating to 1 inch I-90 southward except 1-2 inches higher elevations south central MA and adjacent northwestern RI and northeastern CT, 1-3 inches Route 2 corridor northward except 3-5 inches higher elevations far north central MA and interior southern NH (again leaning toward lower ends of these ranges). I continue to monitor guidance and synoptic set-up regarding the system that follows this, discussed at length this week, and repeated here by saying there is pretty much no change to the ideas, as I continue to lean toward a quicker-moving, slower-developing low pressure area along the Mid Atlantic Coast that eventually starts to intensify more rapidly as it tracks northeastward, passing a fair distance southeast of New England late Sunday to early Monday. By then it will be cold enough that we only talk about a snow shield associated with it (no mixing). The storm is expected to be far enough offshore so that its main snow shield has the most significant impact on southeastern MA, especially Cape Cod and the Islands, while a lighter snowfall takes place elsewhere due to the interaction of this system with upper level low pressure still having to cross the region, with the “maximum” precipitation period Sunday evening before it departs on Monday. The wake of the system presents us with dry and seasonably chilly conditions for the balance of Monday through Tuesday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives midday-afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with mix/snow tapering to snow showers. Lows 27-34. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with occasional snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Afternoon snow develops, favoring southeastern areas / Cape Cod. Highs 30-37. Lows 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Clouds break for sun. A few snow showers possible favoring eastern areas. Highs 30-37. Wind N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH far eastern areas, with higher gusts, diminishing late.

MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 16-23. Highs 31-38. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Watching for additional unsettled weather in the February 25-27 time frame and again as March arrives. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)

Unsettled potentials start and end the period with fair weather between the two chances. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

The busy pattern rolls on but we get a break today with a small area of high pressure providing fair weather. We then enter an unsettled stretch from Friday until early Monday when we are impacted by two separate weather systems associated with a generally west-to-east boundary between Canadian cold and lingering Pacific air over much of the eastern US. The next low pressure waves comes at the Northeast via the Ohio Valley on Friday, with the boundary being pulled northward by the low, but running into the influence of high pressure in eastern Canada. This will force a halt to the front and a redevelopment of low pressure to the southeast of New England which will then move away from the region Saturday. Elongated low pressure – the remains of the original low, will still be over the region on Saturday. The sequence of precipitation with this system will be a large area arriving from southwest to northeast from late morning to early afternoon Friday, at which time we’ll also see an intrusion of warmer air aloft. The magnitude of the latter will help determine where it snows and where sleet and rain takes place. Latest trends on short range guidance is a little milder for this portion of the event. As the redeveloped low takes over to the southeast and starts to move away, colder air does shift back south at the same time the precipitation shield is becoming more broken up, so we see a transition to occasional mix to snow and eventually just snow showers as we head into Saturday – this tapering off by later afternoon or evening. Snowfall accumulation potential is greatest over interior and higher elevation locations with this system. My expectations are for a coating to 1 inch generally south of I-90, closer to 1 inch or just over that in higher elevations of south central MA, northwestern RI, and northeastern CT, and a general 1 to 3 inches elsewhere but a 3 to 5 inch potential over higher elevations of north central MA into interior southern NH, where are areas that can snow for the longest amount of time with the least amount of mix / rain involved. And then attention shifts to the next low pressure development which will take place along the southern Mid Atlantic Coast on Sunday. I continue to lean toward a slightly faster and slower-developing low that tracks pretty far offshore to the southeast of New England by early Monday. If this is indeed how it plays out, the best chance of steadier snow and certainly stronger wind would be over Cape Cod / far southeastern areas while lighter snowfall takes place to the north and west between Sunday afternoon and early Monday. Regardless of track, the storm will be intensifying and pulling away later Monday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives midday-afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with mix/snow tapering to snow showers. Lows 27-34. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Afternoon snow develops, favoring southeastern areas / Cape Cod. Highs 30-37. Lows 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Clouds break for sun. A few snow showers possible favoring eastern areas. Highs 30-37. Wind N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH far eastern areas, with higher gusts, diminishing late.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Watching for additional unsettled weather in the February 25-27 time frame. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)

Another threat of wintry weather exists around the start of March with fair weather following.