DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)

A frontal boundary moves through our region today then settles just to the southeast Friday through the weekend. At the same time a broader trough of low pressure will move into the Northeast via the Midwest and Great Lakes and take through Monday to entirely cross our region. What this means is that the next 5 days will be unsettled, even though we start out with plenty of sunshine in the region today. What this doesn’t mean is that we see rain most of the time, although we can see some significant rainfall for portions of the region, depending on a set of details and how they take place. A little uncertainty with these can lead to quick-needed forecast adjustments as we move through this period of time, but here’s my current best shot on how I think it’ll play out. Today, as the front moves through, we see clouds move in as it passes by as a weak low pressure wave travels along it, and this brings us some generally light rainfall this evening / tonight. This first wave has been shown by some guidance to slow down and take its time moving by the region on Friday, being a focus for some heavier shower activity when acted on by limited sunshine. If this occurs, the greatest chance is in eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. A follow-up wave has been shown by guidance to take a range of tracks, some right over the region, some further southeast, some slower, some faster. My leaning is for a wave that brings the best shot of rain to southeastern MA, RI, and eastern CT later Friday to midday Saturday, with less of a chance to the north and northwest. When we get to Sunday and Monday, I suspect we’ll see a pattern of more scattered shower and possible thunderstorm activity with a bit more established southerly air flow in the region, along with a bit warmer and more noticeably humid air.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Light rain chances increase later in the day especially south and west of Boston. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Light rain at times. Patchy fog forms. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Shower chances shift mainly I-95 belt southeastward, with a few heavier showers and t-storms possible. Highs 75-82. Dew point around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Fog patches. Showers most likely I-95 belt southeastward. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start with greatest shower chances I-95 belt southeastward, then a sun / cloud mix with a pop-up shower possible. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. A shower possible. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)

Watch for a couple disturbances and shower chances, but overall more dry times than wet ones. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

A couple disturbance may induce shower chances, but the pattern overall looks more dry than wet. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)

Much like yesterday, we start today with lots of stratus cloud cover, though a little more broken and with less fog around this time. This is due to a light southwesterly air flow bringing moisture in ahead of an approaching cold front. This southwesterly flow will strengthen somewhat during the day today into tonight, with a pretty nice, albeit fairly humid summer day today with the stratus clouds giving way to more sunshine. We’ll stay rain free today and this evening. As the aforementioned cold front moves slowly across the region Thursday, it can trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, but I am not anticipating widespread coverage or any severe weather. Once the front goes by, it will slow down and become quasi-stationary just to our south and east. We then watch for a wave of low pressure to form on and move along the boundary. The guidance has had some trouble resolving the timing on this. Current trends indicate that a bout of showery weather may impact at least southern and some eastern portions of our region later Friday to early Saturday before moving away. The next trough from the west will approach later Sunday and may bring another shower and thunderstorm opportunity later that day. This scenario would leave much of the weekend rain-free, however, so I am still somewhat optimistic.

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 80-87 except 73-80 Cape Cod. Dew point increases to lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Probable showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point falls just under 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Lots of sun, then increasing clouds. Highs 75-82. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Fog patches. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with shower chances to start ,then partly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)

Watch for a couple disturbances and shower chances, but overall more dry times than wet ones. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

Unsettled weather is most likely toward the end of the period. Temperatures somewhat variable, averaging around normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)

Low clouds and areas of fog are dominant as we start today with low level moisture trapped under an inversion in the lower atmosphere, and not enough wind to mix the air efficiently at first. This will change as weak low pressure to our east pulls away and the sun works on the atmosphere from above, eventually transforming our sky into a sun / cloud mix, although the colder air with upper low pressure just to our east can be enough to trigger a pop-up shower this afternoon, particularly from the I-95 belt eastward. Tranquil weather takes over tonight and Wednesday with plenty of sun and a warm-up during Wednesday as high pressure slides overhead then offshore. A southwesterly breeze will pick up later Wednesday as a cold front approaches our region from the northwest, but this front will not be in a grand rush to get by us, and will take most of the day Thursday to do so. This triggers a shower and thunderstorm chance that day, but I’m not expecting widespread coverage, nor am I expecting any severe weather. The front ambles offshore, barely, and slows to a crawl, or stalls completely, as we move through Friday into Saturday. Currently, I am still anticipating this front to be just far enough to the southeast so that high pressure can get close enough to give us fair weather those days. The forecast gets tricky here. We’ll also have to watch an initial low pressure wave moving along the front on Saturday that I do expect to stay offshore.

TODAY: Abundant low clouds and areas of fog give way to a mix of sun and clouds. A pop-up shower possible this afternoon, especially southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI, but only isolated coverage. Highs 75-82. Dew point lowers to sub-60. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87 except 73-80 Cape Cod. Dew point increases to lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Probable showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point falls just under 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches late night. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)

August 23-25 are vulnerable to unsettled weather based on a front just to our south and a trough moving in from the west. I’m cautiously optimistic we finish most of the weekend on August 23 without rainfall and that it’s focused more on the two days that follow, but will monitor the evolution of the pattern here. Trend to fair and seasonable weather later in the period is the current expectation.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

A stretch of mainly fair weather and seasonable temperatures anticipated for the final days of August and the very start of September.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)

Into the back half of August we go, and this week will start off on the wet, humid, and cool side today as dual low pressure passes by – one older center to our north, one newly developing center to our south. Showery weather will be most prominent this morning with less activity for the afternoon and evening, though cloud cover will remain dominant and keep temperature rise minimal as humidity stays high. Drying starts later tonight into Tuesday as the newer low moves offshore to our east and promotes a light northerly air flow, but some cold air aloft with the help of solar heating can help a few showers pop up Tuesday, primarily around the I-95 belt. A sliver of high pressure moves in Tuesday night and Wednesday giving us dry weather with a notable warm-up for Wednesday, along with a slight increase in humidity. A cold front will amble across the region on Thursday, bringing our region a shower and thunderstorm chance along with humid conditions, but it won’t be any warmer than Wednesday, maybe a tad cooler. Friday’s weather looks fair but the front that goes by Thursday may be slow to exit the South Coast so we’ll have to keep an eye on that. Right now I think high pressure will have enough push to keep it dry.

TODAY: Cloudy. Occasional showers and areas of fog morning. Chance of a shower this afternoon. Highs 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind S shifts to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible evening. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E shifts to N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. A pop-up shower possible I-95 belt midday on. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point lowers to upper 50s. Wind N shifts to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87 except 73-80 Cape Cod. Dew point increases to lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Probable showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point falls just under 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point sub-60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)

The front previously talked about may be sitting just south of our region on the August 22-23 weekend. While my forecast was optimistic previously, it’s still partially so, but not as much, as we’ll have to watch a couple disturbances moving along the front that could deliver some showers to part of our region, particularly the South Coast / Cape Cod, during the weekend and even into early next week as well before we trend to fair weather as high pressure builds in later in the period. No major heat is expected.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)

A stretch of mainly fair weather and seasonable temperatures anticipated for the final days of August.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)

High pressure sits overhead early today then shifts offshore as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. This starts a transition from sunshine and low humidity to increasing clouds and higher humidity, but neither one of those will be in a hurry to take over, so we still end up with a really nice day to finish off the weekend! The initial system moving into the Great Lakes redevelops just to our south on Monday and travels northeastward to a position offshore to our east by Monday night, wandering away Tuesday as another small area of high pressure builds our way behind it. This scenario brings us abundant cloudiness and scattered showers overnight tonight through Monday evening, but also much rain-free time. Tuesday’s weather features varying amounts of clouds and still the chance of a pop-up shower, but much of that day is dry. High pressure slides offshore Wednesday, and with the next approaching frontal system still well to our northwest, we’ll have a very nice summer day. The front to the northwest then does make its way into our region Thursday at which time we will see a return of shower and thunderstorm chances.

TODAY: Sunshine, then increasing clouds later in the day. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point rises to 60+ by later in the day. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes by midday, then S 5-15 MPH by late-day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and patchy fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Patchy fog early. Highs 68-75. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH, shifting to N late-day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds linger. Patches of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Intervals of clouds and sun. A pop-up shower possible, mainly near I-95 in the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point sub-60. Wind N shifts to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 53-60. Dew point under 55. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod, 80-87 elsewhere. Dew point climbs to around 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Probable showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)

Fair weather early to mid period which, based on current expectations, includes the August 22-23 weekend. Unsettled weather chances return late in the period. Lower humidity late next week, higher humidity follows. No major heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)

A stretch of mainly fair weather and seasonable temperatures expected toward month’s end.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 15-19)

High pressure from Canada brings us pleasantly mild, dry weather with low humidity today and as it crests over our region, tonight ends up feeling rather cool in comparison to many recent warmer nights. Sunday, high pressure shifts offshore while it still has enough influence to give us a nice summer day, you’ll notice an up-tick in the humidity level by later in the day along with increasing cloud cover ahead of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. This low pressure area gives us our next round of unsettled weather later Sunday night and Monday as it moves eastward and redevelops just south of our region. That conglomeration during transition will bring us episodic showery weather for 12 to 18 hours from around midnight Sunday night to sometime between noon and the end of the afternoon on Monday before it exits to the east. Behind it, high pressure returns Tuesday with generally fair weather, although lingering low level moisture left behind by the rainfall and heated by the sun will trigger some pop-up clouds to mix with the sun. High pressure shifts offshore Wednesday with sunshine and a light southerly breeze which will bring a tad bit more humidity back again, but not that noticeable with modest afternoon warmth after a somewhat cool start to the day.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 40s to 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine, then increasing clouds later in the day. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point rises to 60+ by later in the day. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes by midday, then S 5-15 MPH by late-day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive west to east including the chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 65-72. Dew point near 65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, tapering off during the afternoon southwest to northeast. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH, shifting to N late-day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing but ground fog patches around. Lows 55-62. Dew point falls under 55 by dawn. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-87, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point near 50. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod, 80-87 elsewhere. Dew point climbs to around 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)

Trough / frontal system brings a shower and thunderstorm chance to the region during August 20. Generally dry weather after this with high pressure keeping unsettled weather off to our south, but this may change toward the end of the period when we’ll have to watch for some unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 25-29)

Best opportunity for unsettled weather starts the period with mainly fair weather following this. Temperatures mostly around seasonable levels.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)

A northwesterly flow is transporting dry air into our region, but a trough embedded in that flow will bring clouds and a shower threat to our region later today. High pressure follows this for fair weather this weekend, with low humidity until early Sunday, then an increase in humidity as high pressure shifts offshore later Sunday. At that time, clouds will be on the increase as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. This low’s fronts will bring episodic showers and possible thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday before fair weather returns Monday evening through Tuesday after it departs to the east.

TODAY: Sunshine well into afternoon before clouds arrive northwest to southeast later afternoon along with scattered showers. Highs 78-85. Dew point 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds early with lingering showers mainly southeastern MA / RI, followed by clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point near 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 40s to 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine, then increasing clouds later in the day. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point rises to 60+ by later in the day. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes by midday, then S 5-15 MPH by late-day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive west to east including the chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 65-72. Dew point near 65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Clearing west to east during the afternoon. Highs 74-81. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 58-65. Dew point falls under 55. Wind W 5-15 MPH

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler some coastal areas. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)

High pressure shifts offshore with warm and moderately humid but fair weather expected on August 19. August 20 looks like the day for showers and t-storms with a frontal system moving through the region. Fair, less humid weather returns late next week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-28)

One or two quick-moving systems can bring brief unsettled weather otherwise a mainly dry pattern continues into late month.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)

Low pressure will pass north of our region today. Its warm front moving through this morning with a couple areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms, but focused toward the South Coast and parts of southern NH to northeastern MA while not much happens between those areas. We’ll have a spike of high humidity again today in the warm sector before the low’s cold front moves across the region late today and early this evening. With drying at mid levels of the atmosphere, I am only expecting isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in association with the cold frontal passage, despite the return of sunshine ahead of it. This front leads a drier air mass into the region on Friday, which will still be a warm day. A secondary cold front will charge through the region early Friday evening with a batch of clouds and perhaps a few showers, maybe even an isolated thunderstorm, with the focus of this activity looking like it will be west and southwest of Boston. The weekend will feature dry and comfortable weather as an area of high pressure moves in from Canada Saturday before sliding offshore to the southeast later on Sunday. Low pressure heads into the Great Lakes during Sunday and we’ll see increasing clouds ahead of it later Sunday, with a couple rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms as this system moves across our region later Sunday night and Monday, with more precise timing and details of this unsettled weather to be determined.

TODAY: Clouds dominate the morning with showers and embedded thunderstorms in southern NH & northeastern MA as well as the South Coast region and just the chance of a brief shower elsewhere. More sun this afternoon with a passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 80-87. Dew point spikes near 70. Wind S to SW increasing to 5-15 MPH with a few higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds, then more clouds late afternoon with a shower possible including the slight chance of a thunderstorm, favoring areas west and southwest of Boston. Highs 78-85. Dew point in the 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point below 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 40s to 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine, then increasing clouds later in the day. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Highs 73-80. Dew point rises into and through 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)

West to northwest flow pattern looks mainly dry except maybe briefly unsettled August 20 or 21. Temperatures slightly variable but overall close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)

One or two quick-moving systems can bring brief unsettled weather otherwise a mainly dry pattern continues into late month.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 12-16)

A low pressure area quietly passed south of the region overnight without any fanfare other than some high clouds moving across the sky, and now just a few high thin clouds and some lingering high altitude wildfire smoke will give the sky a hazy look today while sunshine dominates with moderate humidity and seasonably warm air. We’ll have humidity spike on Thursday as a low pressure area passes to our north and brings its warm front / cold front combo across our region. The former will produce showers and possible thunderstorms in the region in the morning to midday hours, while the latter brings a shower and thunderstorm chance later in the day. This will be followed by low humidity air and fair weather Friday and this weekend, although clouds will start to return later Sunday ahead of the next trough as we are now in a progressive westerly (zonal) flow pattern.

TODAY: Early clouds limit sun South Coast / Cape Cod before sun returns. Mainly sunny elsewhere. Highs 80-87 except 73-80 shorelines, coolest Cape Cod. Dew point falls under 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear early, clouds return later. Lows 61-68. Dew point heads back toward 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms morning to midday, then another shower or thunderstorm possible later in the day. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point below 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine, then increasing clouds late-day. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 17-21)

A passing trough and frontal system brings higher humidity and likely showers / t-storms August 17. Generally fair and seasonable weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)

One or two quick-moving systems can bring brief unsettled weather otherwise a mainly dry pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)

Humidity remains elevated but not oppressive today with the temperature down a small notch from yesterday as high pressure is in control, but the sky will again feature high altitude smoke from wildfires in the northwestern US and southwestern Canada, though today’s plume will be thicker south, and somewhat thinner north. This plume will thin further though Wednesday. We will see an increase in cloud cover, particularly in the southern half of our region, this evening and tonight with a low pressure disturbance passing south of our region in the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday. This may bring a scrape of light rain to the South Coast region, particularly Nantucket, before to around sunrise, before moving out. The balance of Wednesday will be fair with lowering humidity and seasonable warmth. Thursday’s outlook is still unsettled with a trough and frontal system passing through the region with a couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, although coverage may not be much greater than 50% for measurable rain. Friday and Saturday we see high pressure move in with pleasant, dry weather.

TODAY: Hazy sun with high altitude smoke and high clouds, also a few fair weather clouds popping up. Highs 81-88 but 74-81 Cape Cod. Dew point gradually sinks through the 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds thicken, especially south of I-90 with brief pre-dawn rain possible near the South Coast. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds limit sun South Coast / Cape Cod before sun returns. Mainly sunny elsewhere. Highs 80-87 except 73-80 shorelines, coolest Cape Cod. Dew point falls under 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear early, clouds return later. Lows 61-68. Dew point heads back toward 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point below 50. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)

Fair, mild, dry August 16 to finish the weekend. Higher humidity and shower / t-storm chances early next week before drier weather returns midweek in a generally west to northwest flow pattern in the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)

Same general pattern. Some up and down temps, one ore two short-lived shower / t-storm chances with passing disturbances.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 10-14)

The Bermuda High set-up has broken down and given way to a zonal (west to east) flow for this week. There are 3 disturbances to watch. The first is a trough of low pressure passing to our north with a spike extending southward, which will move through our region tonight with a shower and thunderstorm chance. This leaves most of today fair with hazy sun (wildfire smoke aloft) and after a slightly less humid start, a return of higher humidity, which hangs around through Tuesday but with fair weather returning. The second disturbance will be a weak low pressure area passing south of the region early Wednesday, but right now I expect any rain associated with it to remain just south of our region off the South Coast, so other than some morning cloudiness in southern areas, expect another day of fair weather. The third disturbance will be low pressure passing to our north Thursday. Its warm front goes by early Thursday, followed by its cold front later Thursday. This brings a couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms to our region, the details of which can be worked out over the next few days. Behind this system, a slight cool down arrives along with much lower humidity and fair weather for Friday.

TODAY: Hazy sun, clouds increase late-day. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point starts the day around 60 then climbs above 65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A couple showers and thunderstorms possible. Fog patches form. Lows 66-73. Dewpoint 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 81-88. Dew point near 65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear north. Clouds increase near the South Coast. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds limit sun south of I-90 morning, otherwise sunshine expected. Highs 81-88 except 74-81 coast. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 15-19)

Fair, mild, low humidity August 15-16 weekend. Higher humidity and shower / t-storm chances return earl or middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 20-24)

Fair weather early and late period. Higher humidity and shower / t-storm chances mid period.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 9-13)

As the long-staying Bermuda High pattern breaks down somewhat, we transition into a more west-to-east flow pattern heading into the new week. A weak trough has passed by and introduced slightly more stable and less humid air, though still with hot weather, for today, drastically limiting pop-up storm chances. You’ll notice some haze in the sky due to high altitude wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest, but nothing to the level of the thicker plumes we saw last month. The zonal flow pattern will send a trough and frontal system our way on Monday, but its timing is pretty late, bringing us a shower and thunderstorm chance late in the day and mostly during the evening and nighttime hours. It does look like this system will exit quickly enough for generally fair weather Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak low may pass south of our region on Wednesday but should be far enough south to have no notable impact. The next trough and frontal system from the west brings a shower and thunderstorm chance back on Thursday.

TODAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high clouds (early) and high altitude smoke (mostly later) and occasionally interrupted by passing fair-weather clouds midday into afternoon, with only a remote chance of an isolated pop-up shower or thunderstorm. Highs 85-92 except 77-84 Cape Cod / Islands. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s trends slightly down. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Hazy sky, patchy ground fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point near 65. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun eventually gives way to clouds. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Patchy fog develops. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 81-88. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 74-81 coast. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 14-18)

Fair, less humid weather August 14-16. Higher humidity and shower / t-storm chances return August 17-18. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 19-23)

Fair weather early to mid period. Higher humidity and shower / t-storm chances return again later in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

COMMENTARY

Before going forward through the coming 5 days, a quick look back at the last 2. Bermuda High weather pattern, same general set-up with high pressure off the US East Coast pumping very warm to hot and humid air into the region. But let’s look at Boston. There were a couple striking differences between the two days in the same location that are the type of thing that is not always too easy to forecast, even in the short term, although I got one and kind of missed the other. At Logan Airport, where the city’s official observations are taken, there was some abundant cloud cover to start the day out Thursday with a disturbance moving through the region. Eventually more sunshine was observed. The southwesterly air flow was weak enough so that a sea breeze developed and prevented the temperature from reaching 90, while the dew point stayed quite high at 70+, oppressive humidity. Fast forward to Friday. There was plenty more sunshine for a good part of the day with only some limited cumulus clouds around late in the day, and then a shadow from the anvil of distant thunderstorms blotting the sun out in the evening. But the day featured the temperature climbing a few degrees above 90 when the wind, which was a little more notable, shifted to west and northwest, a direction often noted for a down-slope effect that not only heats the air up heading out to the airport, but also dries it out, so while the temperature over-achieved expectation, the dew point, which sat in the oppressive 70s prior, dropped into the still humid but slightly more tolerable 60s. This was a classic example of this phenomenon, which was definitely under-estimated by yours truly.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 8-12)

Our stretch of very warm to hot, humid weather continues this weekend, with today being the more humid but least hot of the two, while there’s a slight reversal of this on Sunday with a bit more heat but a bit less humidity, accomplished by a southwesterly air flow today shifting to more westerly on Sunday. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances are greatest today, with the potential for one somewhere in eastern coastal areas as a disturbance departs the region first thing in the morning, and the chance returning in the afternoon and early evening in response to diurnal heating. Additionally, a small disturbance may trigger a few more nighttime storms favoring areas to the south of I-90. This is followed by a quieter day in terms of storm chances Sunday, with just a remote risk for a pop-up afternoon storm. Monday continues the theme of very warm to hot and moderate to high humidity, sans storm chances as the atmosphere will be more stable. We then look to our west for a disturbance to pass through between later Tuesday and early Wednesday with another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms and a slight downward trend in the temperature while humidity says somewhat elevated.One other note, you’ll notice a hazier look to the sky at times the next few days – a little bit today, a little more Sunday morning, and potentially considerably more early next week, coming from high altitude wildfire smoke from the US Pacific Northwest.

TODAY: A sun / cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible early morning favoring eastern areas, and anywhere in the afternoon. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 coastal areas. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but with potential sea breezes in all coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm is possible early north of I-90. A batch of showers and thunderstorms may travel across some areas mainly south of I-90 late evening or overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: More sun than clouds. An isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 84-91 except 77-84 coastal areas. Dew point 68+ but may drop somewhat during the day. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine dominates. Highs 83-90 but cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 68-75. Dewpoint 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms probable. Highs 81-88 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Shower chances with a possible thunderstorm. Fog patches form overnight. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: A sun / cloud mix with a possible shower favoring the morning to midday hours. Highs 81-88. Dew point drops toward 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 13-17)

West to east flow with a more up-and-down temperature pattern evolving. Best chance of unsettled weather from a passing disturbance will be early in the period before mainly dry weather takes over.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 18-22)

A shower or thunderstorm possible a couple times with passing disturbances / frontal systems in a west to east flow. Temperature trend is down a little to near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 7-11)

No changes to the general outlook today as the Bermuda High pattern holds through this period. Daily opportunities exist for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms – though mostly isolated. Also, as previously mentioned, placement, coverage, and timing (occurring potentially outside the “afternoon to early evening time frame”) can be influenced by a couple of passing small-scale disturbances, so staying “weather-aware” at all times is a good idea, especially if you have outdoor plans. Very warm to hot air and high humidity will also be the rule, so plan accordingly (sun protection, hydration) if outside a lot. The greatest shower and thunderstorm chances are today and Saturday with a lower chance Sunday and Monday. Tuesday, a cold front sweeping across the region brings a better chance of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, but it’s a little too soon to say much more about this at this time.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 coastal areas. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but with potential sea breezes in all coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm is possible early. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: A sun / cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible early morning favoring eastern areas, and anywhere in the afternoon. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 coastal areas. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but with potential sea breezes in all coastal areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm is possible early. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: More sun than clouds. An isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 84-91 except 77-84 coastal areas. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but with potential sea breezes in all coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: A sun / cloud mix. Potential for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Highs 83-90, except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point 68+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 68-75. Dewpoint 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms probable. Highs 81-88 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 12-16)

West to east flow with a more up-and-down temperature pattern evolving. Best chance of unsettled weather from a passing disturbance / frontal system is mid period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 17-21)

A general west to east flow with a couple passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm chances. Temperatures slightly variable, averaging fairly close to normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 6-10)

Classic Bermuda High pattern is now in place and stays with us throughout the next 5 days. There is a daily chance of pop-up showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening, with placement and coverage dependent on a couple disturbance passing by, as well as boundaries created by previous activity, so pin-pointing such occurrences in advance is not really possible. The advice, especially if you will be outside, is to stay hydrated, take breaks from being in the heat and humidity we’ll have, and keep an eye to the sky or watch radar for shower and thunderstorm activity.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible from mid afternoon through early evening. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast, and also can drop back to near 80 at east-facing shores. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 coastal areas. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but with potential sea breezes in all coastal areas.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm is possible early. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: A sun / cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 coastal areas. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but with potential sea breezes in all coastal areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm is possible early. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: More sun than clouds. An isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 85-92 except 78-85 coastal areas. Dew point 68+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH but with potential sea breezes in all coastal areas.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: A sun / cloud mix. Potential for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Highs 85-92, except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point 68+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 11-15)

A more west-to-east flow is introduced by a passing disturbance and frontal system which brings a better shower and thunderstorm chance August 11. Another such system will move through around August 14, based on current timing expectations. Temperatures a little more variable, averaging mostly near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 16-20)

A general west to east flow with a couple passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm chances. Temperatures slightly variable, averaging fairly close to normal for the period.