DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)
Before we go into the outlook for the next 5 days, let’s take a look at some current weather that’s quite interesting. As you know, the forecast for overnight was for generally calm conditions under a clear sky, setting up radiational cooling. This was optimized for some places in southeastern MA, such as Falmouth, Taunton, and Martha’s Vineyard. The airport MVY sits in the middle of the island in a relative low spot. They were already as 15 degrees at 1 a.m. and have since dropped further to 12, with a few point of just 9, as the wind has continued to stay calm there. Meanwhile, just across the water at Nantucket, with a light wind blowing, they are a dozen + 1 warmer at 25. Up to Boston, as of 6 a.m. they sit at 26 with a northerly breeze passing over relatively warmer ocean water before it reaches the temperature sensor. As a result, their dew point is also quite a bit higher at 17, compared to Martha’s Vineyard’s single digit dp. As a segue to the outlook, I’ll mention that the same ocean water will play a role in keeping coastal areas cooler than inland areas as we move through the day today. High pressure nudging its way toward southeastern Canada will deliver a light easterly air flow to the region, and as the sun warms the land more efficiently, that easterly flow will keep the coastal areas cooler, thanks to ocean water temperatures now near to a little below 40 degrees. We’re already seeing some low clouds from the ocean start to move into Cape Cod and other eastern coastal areas, and these will be around at times along the coastal plain during the day today while inland areas see more sunshine. Additionally, some high, thin clouds are fanning up from the south. These are from a large ocean storm that, while it looks a bit threatening on the weather map, will stay offshore to our east and southeast before moving out to sea. Our next round of unsettled weather is going to come from the west, in the form of a trough of low pressure aloft and two surface lows. The first will travel to our northwest Thursday night and early Friday, dragging a warm front through the region. This front will send a batch of precipitation through the region late Thursday night and early Friday – mainly in the form of rain though some brief wet snow may occur in higher elevations from north central MA through southwestern NH as the air should be just cold enough to support it. A second low pressure wave will move up an approaching cold front during the day Friday to produce a couple rounds of rain showers. Depending on the speed of this wave, we may or may not start to see a clearing process, at least to the west, before the day is over. Areas west of I-95 would stand the greatest chance of being post-rain and seeing breaking clouds before nightfall. But in general, plan on an unsettled day Friday. This will be a fairly light event, with precipitation amounts of generally under 0.50 inch expected. The weekend looks like a dry one. Saturday will feature a gusty breeze and will by the colder of the 2 days as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and drags colder air in from Canada between itself and departing low pressure. High pressure moves over the region Saturday night into Sunday. This sets up a cold Saturday night with another clear sky / light wind combination. Sunday will feature plenty of sun and a modest warm-up after a cold start.
TODAY: Intervals of clouds favoring the eastern coastal plain. More sunshine elsewhere but filtered at times by some high cloudiness. Highs 36-43, coolest in coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers, may begin as mix/snow showers some interior higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with occasional rain showers through mid afternoon. Breaking clouds possible especially west of I-95 late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing overnight.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 1)
A quick-moving trough may bring a few snow showers to the region February 26. A southwesterly flow brings a milder trend but also the chance of a couple rounds of rain showers from later February 27 through early February 29 before a wind shift to west or northwest brings dry, colder weather for late period. Details of low pressure / frontal timing will need to be fine-tuned.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)
The first half of the period is most likely to feature dry weather, with the latter half of the period more likely to feature unsettled weather. Variable temperatures, typical for this time of year, but should average somewhat above normal for the period overall.