REVIEW / COMMENTARY
A quick review on yesterday’s event, forecast to be generally a 1 to 3 inch snowfall (less South Coast) with some sleet and ending as some rain / ice. Timeline was a little quicker with both the onset of snow and even more so with the advance of warming aloft, with the snowfall amounts generally 1/2 to 2 inches in the “main” area, an error of about 1/2 to 1 inch in any given location. This leads me to the commentary. Across the net, the criticism was over the top. It’s apparent to me that the majority of the population continues to focus on top numbers in ranges and also fail to remember that forecasts are predictions of the future. They also are failing to remember that predicting snowfall to the nearest inch is about the same as predicting rainfall to the nearest tenth of an inch, in general. These are things that obviously need to be spelled out in detail so that those who forget these basic facts so easily can be re-spoon-fed the information before they jump all over the forecasters for being “wrong” about something that likely had very little impact on their overall plans. And even if it did. Oh well, it’s a prediction, not a guarantee. And despite what many people might think, we’re still correct far more often than we’re not. Criticism is one thing, but uneducated / unfair criticism is another thing entirely, and I will defend my colleagues each and every time against anyone and everyone that I have to. 🙂 So now, before I get to my expectations / predictions for the coming five day period, I’ll start with this reminder. These are my best ideas for the upcoming weather, based on my interpretation of the information available at the time of this writing. My advice is to check back for updates, since it should go without saying that predictions for a time further away from t = zero (where ‘t’ is time from now and ‘zero’ = now) have generally more error the further away from ‘t=zero’ you get. This is pretty much easy logic, but often seems lost on many people. Not sure why.
DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 7-11)
High pressure builds toward our region today, but the pressure difference between it and a low pressure area in eastern Canada will create a gusty breeze. The moving air and low dew point will help improve ground conditions (melting and/or drying snow / ice from the recent event). High pressure moves over the region tonight and early Saturday with fair, seasonably chilly, more tranquil weather as winds drop off. But in the active pattern we’re in, the next low pressure system heads our way as the weekend goes on. The next system takes a track further south than its predecessor, but is also a slightly more potent system. The track to the south allows the cold air to stay locked in so that other than some potential mixing along the South Coast, the coming event Saturday night into Sunday will be generally a straight snow event. Despite the decent potential for a slug of moderate to heavy snow (intensity), the quick movement of the system will be a slight limiting factor for potential snowfall accumulation across the region, making it more likely a moderate snowfall, in general, for the region. A small southward jog in the track would result in lower amounts in southern NH and northern MA with more from the I-90 belt to the South Coast, while a slightly northward shift would introduce more mixing and lower snow amounts in the South Coast region with widespread significant snow accumulation elsewhere. This forecast plays the middle ground and leaves room for adjustment in either direction on the next update, if necessary. Beyond the weekend event, we get a break in the weather on Monday with an area of high pressure moving in. But as the pattern is active, the next low pressure impact threat comes at some point Tuesday, likely late-day and night – details TBD, but leaning toward a system tracking to the south some some snow for our region.
TODAY: Cloud/sun mix trending to more sun. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives west to east. Lows 20-27. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Overcast through midday with snow, except a possible mix South Coast. Expected snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches for most of the region, with areas of under 5 inches possible in southern NH and far northern MA with any southerly track shift, as well as along the South Coast if any mixing occurs. Partial clearing mid to late afternoon with breaks of sun. Highs 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW with higher gusts late-day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.
MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusty.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Diminishing NW wind.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 12-16)
Storm system impact potential early February 12, February 13, and later February 15 into February 16, based on current expected timing of systems. All of these have the potential to include frozen precipitation or a variety. Temperatures near to below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 17-21)
Temperatures variable but averaging near to below normal for the period. Pattern remains active with two potential precipitation events.