DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)

A disturbance brought a round of showers through the region overnight – a nice drink for the flowers even through we still suffer a longer-term dry spell. It’s back to fair weather for the day today, some patchy clouds drifting across the sky but plenty of sun, and a little bit warmer in most areas than yesterday. Tonight, a back-door cold front swings into the region from the northeast, and while it’s not going to bring much in the way of clouds and certainly no rain, it will turn the region a little cooler for Monday, especially in eastern coastal locations which will have a wind off the water. But this front is pushed back the other way by Tuesday as the little bubble of high pressure from Canada that sent it down merges with the high pressure area off the East Coast to our south. This will pump in the warmth of summer for Tuesday and into Wednesday as well. Some areas can see their first 90 degree readings of the season on Tuesday for high temps, but I do not think this will be widespread, and it will most certainly be cooler along the South Coast and across Cape Cod and the Islands those days as a southwest wind comes across cooler ocean water before reaching those areas. We have to watch for shower and thunderstorm chances on Tuesday with the approach of a pre-frontal trough from the west. The most likely area to see anything would be central MA and southern NH later in the day or in the evening. I do think coverage on this will be low as far as the region goes, but I’ll keep an eye on it. A cold front will move across the region during Wednesday, providing a better chance of showers and storms. It’s still a few days away and timing is not nailed down, but I am leaning later in the day for it – northwest to southeast across the region. Behind this front, high pressure builds in with fair and more seasonable weather for Thursday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 76-83 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 62-69 coast, 70-77 inland. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of a late-day shower or thunderstorm favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 68-75 Islands / Cape Cod, 76-83 southeastern CT and southern RI to MA South Shore, 84-91 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances. Highs 65-72 Cape Cod / Islands, 73-80 southeastern CT and southern RI to MA South Shore, 81-88 elsewhere. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.,

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 22-26)

This period contains the Memorial Day Weekend (May 23-25). Over the last few days I’ve been keeping an eye on the medium range models to see how they handle the potential for low pressure passing near or south of the region at some point during that period of time. Obviously beyond day 6 we still have quite a bit of uncertainty in the outlook, but today I lean toward the greatest wet weather threat taking place mid weekend (May 24) with fair weather both to start (May 22-23) and end (May 25-26) this time period. Temperatures, while somewhat typically variable, should average generally around normal for the period. Day to day variation can be made more clear as we get closer to these days.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 27-31)

The outlook for the last 5 days of May, if based on guidance available, is rather uncertain, which is not unusual for heading out 2 weeks into the future in spring – and yes, late May is still spring, not summer. Guidance ranges from progression to blocking. Climatology says never count blocking out, even then. When I see range across guidance or wild inconsistency within any model that is considered reasonably accurate much of the time, I go with a vague outlook based on what I feel may be the most likely overall regime, and right now that is drier over wetter, cooler over warmer. Best bet: follow my daily updates.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 16-20)

A very nice mid May weekend is here and while much of the forecast area missed out on beneficial rain from our last visit by low pressure, you now get the chance to enjoy very nice weather, courtesy of a high pressure area moving off the Mid Atlantic Coast. This will bring dry and warmer weather to us this weekend. If you were up early this morning, it was most definitely on the cool side and some areas started the day with fog patches from yesterday’s moisture condensing in a temp / dewpoint matched layer of air near the ground, but that quickly dissipates as the sun rises and the temp quickly climbs up and away from the dew point. The only interruption, if you will, comes in the form of a band of clouds and possibly a couple passing showers tonight as a quick-moving trough swings through the region from northwest to southeast, but this is gone other than a few clouds lingering in eastern and southern areas at dawn on Sunday, and we’re back to fair weather for the day. Monday also holds fair weather for us, but in classic New England fashion, a bubble of high pressure passing to our north will send a back-door front through the region with a temporary Atlantic breeze cooling it down for that day. This Canadian high will then join its southern cousin to our south by Tuesday and Wednesday when we see a preview of summer warmth. We will have to watch for shower and thunderstorm chances both days though. Tuesday, it’s from a trough approaching from the northwest that triggers them well north and west of our area but sends them in our direction. Right now I do believe most of them (if not all of them) don’t survive the trip, but since these can sometimes accelerate and create their own life support, so to speak, I can’t rule a couple out of making it into at least the northwestern reaches of the WHW forecast area later Tuesday. The better chance of showers and storms comes Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region. Currently, timing on this looks late day or evening, but at day 5 there is some uncertainty with that detail.

TODAY: Lingering stratus / fog patches dissipate by mid morning, otherwise sunshine and a few high clouds. Highs 63-70 South Coast, 71-78 elsewhere. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing shower. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 76-83 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 62-69 coast, 70-77 inland. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of a late-day shower or thunderstorm favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chance. Highs 73-80 South Coast, 81-88 elsewhere. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 21-25)

Fair weather with temperatures returning to more seasonable levels May 21-22. May 23-25 is Memorial Day Weekend and I am watching for the potential for a wave of low pressure to bring a period of wet weather, not for the entire weekend, but somewhere around the middle to latter portion of it. This is far from a certainty, just something to keep in mind for now if you have outdoor plans for any of those days.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 26-30)

A couple shower chances and alternating mild and cooler days in a variable, more progressive pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)

Upper level low pressure spins over the region today as surface low pressure slowly departs to our east. Other than a lingering patch of drizzle or a few showers in the region, today will end up drier than yesterday, though a bit cooler. Big changes loom for the weekend, but if you want fair and warmer weather it’s good news, because that’s exactly what we see as the wind flow turns west to southwest in response to high pressure building off the Mid Atlantic Coast. A back-door cold front driven by an eastern Canadian high pressure area will cool it down briefly on Monday, before the high to the south regains control and introduces the feel of summer by Tuesday.

TODAY: Lots of clouds. Patchy drizzle and the chance of a shower. Highs 55-62. Wind E shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind N shifting to W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70 South Coast, 71-78 elsewhere. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 76-83 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 62-69 coast, 70-77 inland. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)

Summer feel May 20 but with a shower and thunderstorm chance as a cold front approaches the area. Behind this front comes fair, more seasonable weather later next week. Early to mid portion of the Memorial Day Weekend shows fair weather followed by a shower chance as a disturbance arrives, but details on that are TBD.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)

Overall pattern leans dry over wet, cool over warm, but some late-spring uncertainty is present. Watch updates for late month in the days ahead.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)

An upper low will bring us unsettled weather including some beneficial rainfall today into Friday before it shifts eastward and departs in time for a fair and warmer weekend. Will it last into early next week? No (and yes). Stay with me here and I’ll explain it. First the upper low will be helping a surface low passing to our north to redevelop to our south, which then gets caught under its upper level support and does a loop just to our east and south tonight and early Friday. This helps prolong the rainfall, but the heaviest may be confined to a fairly narrow area somewhere northeast of Boston with another heavier band over the higher elevations of southwestern NH and central MA. We’ll have to radar-watch today / tonight to see how this plays out. An east to northeast flow on Friday will make that a cooler day than today as rain tapers to drizzle, with a clearing trend beginning at night as the low pulls away to the east. An area of high pressure building across the Mid Atlantic then sliding off the coast south to southeast of New England will promote drier, warmer weather with a west to southwest air flow over the weekend. After a cool start Saturday, we’ll undergo a notable warm-up. Sunday ends up the warmest of the two days with a higher temperature launching pad in the morning and continued warm advection. You knew this next part was coming, I bet. If not, it’s time to learn about it. Monday’s weather would probably be similar, but a high pressure area in eastern Canada is destined to send a back-door cold front into at least northeastern and eastern portions of the WHW forecast area, and perhaps a strong enough push to move it all the way through the region. This makes Monday a decidedly cooler day, especially in eastern coastal locations, although it does look like it will continue to be fair with plenty of sunshine as the high to the north will supply enough dry air.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers. Highs 56-63. Wind S shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Showers gradually diminish and drizzle lingers. Highs 55-62. Wind E shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind N shifting to W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 72-79 elsewhere. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 62-69 coast, 70-77 inland. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)

Warmer weather is back May 19 & 20 but watching for a possible disturbance to trigger a late-day thunderstorm chance on May 19 and a cold front to sweep through with a shower or thunderstorm possible on May 20. Fair, slightly cooler weather follows into later next week. May be watching low pressure to the south by the very end of the period for a potential rain threat, but not sure just yet.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)

Watching the potential for low pressure passing to our south around the middle of the Memorial Day Weekend (May 24). Whether or not it’s close enough for a wet weather interruption remains to be seen and will be monitored. Fair weather much of this period otherwise with variable temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 13-17)

We enter an unsettled weather period today which lasts into Friday as upper level low pressure drifts across our region. A related surface low in the Great Lakes sends its warm front our way today with brief rain possible and a wind shift to south. Before its cold front can cross the region on Thursday, the low redevelops to our south, becoming the main storm system while the initial storm system to the north weakens and dissipates. This low will then spin in the waters south to east of New England later Thursday into Friday before moving away. This evolution provides shifting winds and widespread rainfall for us. As the new surface low evolves our wind will shift from southerly to easterly from Wednesday to Thursday, then to northerly on Friday as the system begins to pull away. The weekend features a different pattern. Low pressure is gone and we find a west to southwest air flow transporting much warmer air into the region along with fair weather as an area of high pressure builds off the Mid Atlantic Coast.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief light rain period possible mid morning to midday, favoring areas from Boston west and north. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH shifting to S 5-15 MPH with higher gusts by late-day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 49-56. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers. Highs 56-63. Wind S shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Numerous to scattered showers. Lows 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers. Highs 55-62. Wind E shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N shifting to W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 72-79 elsewhere. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 18-22)

Back-door cold front potential May 18 with fair but cooler weather, especially eastern coastal locations. Fair, warm weather May 19 into May 20 before a cold front brings a shower / t-storm chance later May 20, followed by a slightly cooler air mass with dry weather later next week.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 23-27)

Watching the potential for low pressure passing to our south around the middle of the Memorial Day Weekend. Whether or not it’s close enough for a wet weather interruption remains to be seen and will be monitored. Fair weather much of this period otherwise with variable temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 12-16)

A disturbance that passed by our region overnight is moving offshore this morning with just some patchy clouds in eastern areas and a couple of light showers clipping the outer portion of Cape Cod before 8 a.m. After this, high pressure dominates and today turns out to be quite a nice day for mid May with sunshine, eventually sharing the sky with diurnal clouds as the sun-heated ground sends moisture into the sky that condenses in colder air aloft. These clouds will dissipate this evening but while that happens we’ll see an increase in high clouds from the west ahead of warm front from low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. Clouds thicken into Wednesday morning and as that front moves through, a period of light rain is possible. After the warm front goes by, while clouds remain abundant, it should be generally rain-free outside of a shower chance in central MA and southwestern NH later in the day, ahead of a cold front. As this front enters our region at night, the shower chance increases, but the front does not make a clean pass through. The upper level low that is driving the system is going to be drifting east southeast instead of traveling with its companion surface low into southeastern Canada, the latter eventually dying and giving way to a new surface low to the south, which quickly is caught under the upper low, becoming quasi-stationary for about 24 hours (Thursday to early Friday). This is when our wettest weather will occur, along with a cool-down due to thick overcast and an air flow off the still-chilly Atlantic waters. Double good news though: 1) The low does bring some beneficial rainfall to aid in keeping the dry conditions and areas of moderate drought from worsening too much. 2) It moves eastward enough so that we start to see improvement later Friday and most certainly in time for the start of the weekend, although we will still be on its western periphery Saturday with a sun / cloud mix and an active breeze and at least a pretty cool start to that day.

TODAY: Patchy clouds NH and eastern MA until mid morning including a brief shower Outer Cape Cod. Abundant sun mid to late morning. A sun / cloud mix midday and afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain favoring areas north and west of Boston morning to midday. Highs 55-62 occurring by midday then may turn cooler especially coastal areas. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH shifting to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 48-55. Highs 55-62. Wind S shifting to E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog forming. Lows 47-54. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with showers / drizzle through midday, then tapering off with breaks in the clouds later. Highs 55-62. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72 except cooler Cape Cod. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 17-21)

High pressure dominates with fair, milder weather early to mid period. A brief shower chance around May 20 leads to slightly cooler but fair weather to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 22-26)

This period encompasses from the Friday leading into Memorial Day Weekend to the Tuesday after it. Typically there is a lot of uncertainty in a medium range forecast in general, most especially spring time. Current trends indicate that this period of time features mostly dry weather and somewhat variable temperatures, with an increase in wet weather returning toward the end of the period.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

A cold front moving offshore holds a blanket of clouds over much of our region to start today out, including a ribbon of rainfall over Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket, which will move out by about mid morning. A clearing trend will ensue and this afternoon will turn out pretty decent overall. High pressure builds in for tonight and Tuesday, but an upper level trough provides cold air aloft which will trigger diurnal cloud development to some extent this afternoon and more so on Tuesday, limiting the sun. Surface high pressure slides off the Mid Atlantic Coast by midweek as another upper low arrives from the west. The surface low associated with this system initially moves into the Great Lakes and will send its warm front in our direction Wednesday, which will feature a lot of cloud cover and the chance of some rainfall, though this may struggle to produce much with dry air in place initially. The upper level system will help redevelop low pressure to the south producing wetter weather on Thursday, as it stands now. This system will move far enough east on Friday that we break out of the heavy overcast but keep a lot of clouds and the chance of a shower around. Temperatures run near to below normal through this period.

TODAY: Cloudy start with rain ending Cape Cod / Islands. Clearing trend follows with increasing sunshine. Highs 59-66. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, then a sun / cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 55-62 occurring by midday then may turn cooler especially coastal areas. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH shifting to SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 48-55. Highs 55-62. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lingering showers. Patchy fog. Lows 46-53. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 58-65. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

May 16-17 weekend features dry weather and a warming trend as upper level low pressure departs to the east and high pressure builds in – cloud/sun mix and coolest Saturday, more sunshine and warmest Sunday. Milder pattern at least the early part of next week (May 18-20) but watching for a cold front and a shower / t-storm chance by the end of the period after fair weather to start. Too far in future for details.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

Pattern looks less blocked and more progressive with some up and down temps but overall milder to warmer with limited wet weather chances.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 10-14)

Low pressure passing to our north will drag a cold front slowly across our area today and tonight. While there are a lot of clouds much of today, it will be generally rain-free until a broken band of showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, is triggered by the front and moves across the region from west to east from mid afternoon to early evening. The front will slow down over southeastern areas while a wave of low pressure forms on it moving northeastward and passing just offshore overnight / early Monday morning. This will prolong shower chances from eastern CT and RI through southeastern MA during these hours. Monday’s daylight hours will see any showers exit Cape Cod first thing in the morning, with a general clearing trend from west to east. High pressure builds in later Monday through Tuesday with fair weather. The next low pressure system arrives from the west at midweek bringing back abundant cloud cover and a good chance of some wet weather later Wednesday and Thursday, with finer details to-be-determined.

TODAY: Considerable clouds / limited sunshine. A shower and slight chance of a thunderstorm west to east mid afternoon through early evening. Highs 58-65 South Coast, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers mainly eastern CT, RI and southeastern MA. Lows 48-55. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Any early showers exit Cape Cod with clouds thinning for sun west to east. Highs 60-67. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 55-62 occurring by midday then may turn cooler especially coastal areas. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Temperatures generally 50-57, coolest coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 15-19)

Upper level low pressure is expected to be over to just east of the region as part of a larger scale blocking pattern. Drier weather but not absent of shower chances. Temperatures start cool, then moderate later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 20-24)

Upper level low pressure departs, replaced by a more west to east flow, up-and-down temperatures including milder to warmer air, and a few shower threats but overall a mostly dry pattern anticipated.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 9-13)

After just getting rid of one upper low, we have another move in from the west this weekend, bringing some unsettled weather to our region. Today and Sunday will have some notable differences, however, despite the “unsettled” label overall. As a broad surface low moves across the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada, we’ll see a warm front lift northward in advance of it today. This front has already spread its overcast into the region, though some areas did see a colorful Saturday sunrise. A band of rain associated with this front will move northeastward across the area, lasting longer to the west and north while its duration is a little shorter southeast of Boston. This process will take through early afternoon. Later in the afternoon, a trough from the west will bring a more widespread band of showers across the region, which should produce a decent 0.25 to 0.75 inch across much of the region, and this will come to an end early tonight as the trough moves offshore. There’s even the chance of an embedded thunderstorm, especially closer to the South Coast of CT and RI. We’ll end up in a drier zone for a good part of Sunday, which ends up milder than today but several degrees in most of the region with a little more sunshine, though that will be limited by a fair amount of cloudiness. As the cold front trailing the aforementioned low pressure area moves across our region from west to east, a few showers can accompany it, and I can’t rule out an isolated thunderstorm, though support for these is rather limited. Regardless, most of Sunday (Mother’s Day) will be rain-free and decent for outdoor plans in general. The cold front that comes through later in the day doesn’t make its way too far to the southeast and a wave of low pressure is due to move along it, passing just southeast of New England early Monday. Previously, most guidance was indicating a ribbon of rainfall would occur over most of our region making Monday a wet day. Trends since yesterday has been for the wave to be a bit weaker and further offshore, limiting the rain chances to generally east of I-95 and south of I-90, and concentrated on the overnight and early morning hours of Monday. While many times we’d say this is good news, this time it’s not-so-good news, because abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions persist across our region and rainfall is needed. Regardless, the trend is drier for that, and I also expect fair weather Tuesday as high pressure moves in. However, this is spring in the Northeast, and it should come as no surprise that unsettled weather can return as early as next Wednesday as another upper level low pressure system mover into our region.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. A period of rain morning through midday. Widespread showers west to east mid to late afternoon including a chance of a thunderstorm southeastern CT and southern RI. Highs 57-64. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH, shifting to SE then S later.

TONIGHT: Cloudy early with showers ending, then partial clearing west to east. Patchy fog develops. Lows 47-54. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Considerable clouds / limited sunshine. A late-day shower possibility and slight chance of a thunderstorm from west to east. Highs 58-65 South Coast, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain mainly RI and southeastern MA overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early mainly RI and southeastern MA. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 55-62. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 14-18)

Upper level low pressure is expected to be over the region as part of a larger scale blocking pattern. Episodes of unsettled weather and temperatures near to below normal can be expected. Despite this, the pattern does not look like it will produce much in the way of widespread beneficial rainfall.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 19-23)

Upper level low pressure departs, replaced by a more west to east flow, up-and-down temperatures including milder to warmer air, and a few shower threats but overall a mostly dry pattern anticipated.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 8-12)

A low-amplitude upper level trough will swing through our region today into Saturday. Surface high pressure keeps our weather mostly dry initially today but the colder air aloft will trigger diurnal cloud development later this morning through this afternoon, and some of these clouds can grow enough to produce some convective shower activity, so keep an eye out for a spot passing shower here and there. This activity wanes toward sunset and these clouds decrease this evening, but at the same time we’ll see high cloudiness start to fan in from the west ahead of another disturbance sliding our way. This one passes by the region on Saturday with a period of rain mainly in the afternoon to early evening hours. Timing-wise, there is not a lot of change to what I said yesterday, with rain expected to arrive well southwest of Boston by late morning and reach the NH Seacoast region by early or mid afternoon, so the further north and east you are the more “dry time” you get in the early part of the day before it gets wet. Saturday night, the main rain area exits, but a passing trough can trigger an additional shower, maybe even a thunderstorm in a few locations. Coverage would be low on this, but any area that saw one could have briefly heavy rain. This leads to a much nicer and warmer day on Sunday with a west to southwest air flow. There will still be some chilly air aloft so I don’t expect full sunshine, but a mix of sun and clouds, and a few of the latter can build enough to release a pop-up shower, but coverage would be very low, so I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans – just keep an eye on the sky during the afternoon and early evening. The active pattern we’re in sends another wave of low pressure our way for some rainy weather on Monday, before we clear again for Tuesday, with a trend to cooler conditions early next week as well, in response to another upper low moving in from the west.

TODAY: Sunny start, then a sun / cloud mix with a slight chance of a passing shower mid to late afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early evening, mostly clear late evening, then increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast thickens. Rain arrives southwest to northeast mid morning through early afternoon, continuing thereafter. Highs 57-64. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain early, then clearing. Patchy fog. Lows 47-54. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 66-73 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 48-55. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Rain ends. Clearing overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 13-17)

Early to mid period fair weather with a brief milder trend. Later-period unsettled weather potential with low pressure trough in the region, with a return to cooler conditions.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 18-22)

Similar pattern expected with early to mid period fair weather and later-period unsettled weather returning. Temperatures start on the cooler side then trend milder.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 7-11)

A wave of low pressure on a front is resulting in a wet start to the day over the southeastern corner of CT, across much of RI, and southeastern MA, but as this low pressure wave moves by, the front will be pulled offshore and these areas will dry out from west to east by late morning – rain lastly exiting Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod. A clearing trend works in from the west – blue sky is already visible to the west and northwest early this morning if you are in the I-95 belt westward. Some fair weather clouds can pop up this afternoon but after the rain exits southeastern areas we’re looking at a dry, breezy, and cooler day. Tonight’s fair and cool. Friday’s weather is generally nice but a cold pool of air aloft serves to provide some instability so diurnal clouds pop up again, and I cannot rule out a couple of isolated showers too. Saturday, a wave of low pressure associated with an upper trough will move quickly toward and into our region, with a period of rain from midday into Saturday night. This arrives from the southwest, so areas to the south and west of Boston will see rain earlier, while the NH Seacoast is the last to see the rain arrive and holds onto dry weather longest on Saturday. After this system exits, we look for a mostly fair and milder day Sunday, but again with some lingering cold air aloft I cannot rule out a pop-up shower or two in a few locations. Yet another wave of low pressure heads our way from the southwest late this weekend so you’ll see an increase in high cloudiness later Sunday which thicken and lower Sunday night leading to a rather overcast and wet day on Monday, as it looks right now. We do need rain to help with long term dryness / drought, so in that regard the more unsettled pattern is positive news.

TODAY: Rain ends southeastern areas this morning with a clearing trend from west to east into midday. Sun / cloud mix afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind variable becoming N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A few clouds early evening, clear late evening, then increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast thickens. Rain arrives southwest to northeast mid morning through early afternoon, continuing thereafter. Highs 57-64. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain early, then clearing. Patchy fog. Lows 47-54. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 66-73 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 48-55. Wind S to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 12-16)

Early period fair weather, later period unsettled weather as a blocking pattern sends a trough into the Northeast. Temperatures milder at first, then a cooling trend follows.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 17-21)

Unsettled weather early period followed by later period fair weather as a blocking pattern shifts slightly. Temperatures start out below normal then to seasonably milder.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 6-10)

The surge of warm air that came in early this week remains with us for part of today, but along with a lot of cloudiness and eventual showers as a cold front approaches from the west. Two waves of low pressure ripple up along this frontal boundary, the first slowing its approach initially. Showers occur as the front nears and crosses the region, particularly this afternoon and tonight. There’s a slight chance of a few thunderstorms as well. The second low pressure wave will slow the front’s offshore departure, allowing for another round of showers early Thursday, particularly from the I-95 belt eastward, favoring southeastern MA. Later Thursday, a clearing trend begins and I expect fair, cooler weather ending that day and Friday. Friday’s weather will feature a fair amount of sun but the development of some fair-weather clouds too. This weekend, a broad trough of low pressure enters the Northeast. Timing right now suggests that a wave of low pressure will bring the chance of some wet weather to our region Saturday afternoon or night, but there is the chance that this system can slip further south and be more of a miss. Monitoring guidance trends on that. For now, I expect Sunday to be a fair and milder day.

TODAY: Most sun early, otherwise considerably cloudy. Afternoon showers and the slight chance of a thunderstorm arriving west to east. Highs 67-74 except 60-67 South Coast to MA South Shore / Cape Ann. Wind S 10-20 MPH, gusts as high as 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of morning showers, especially I-95 eastward. Highs 60-67. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Potential for rain favoring the afternoon and southern areas. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain early, then clearing. Patchy fog. Lows 47-54. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 66-73 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 11-15)

Low pressure passing by the region brings a rain chance May 11 followed by mid period fair weather, before unsettled weather chances return at the end of the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 16-20)

Overall dry pattern but on the cooler side.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 5-9)

A healthy southwesterly air flow will create a gusty wind today but also transport warm air into our region, making it the warmest day in several weeks in general. Of course, ocean-modified air will keep the South Coast to MA South Shore cooler than the rest of the region, typical for spring. We’ll see plenty of sun, but clouds start to increase later as we see the first influence of an approaching cold front to our west. This front will not have a significant impact on our weather until Wednesday, when showers arrive from west to east. A few thunderstorms are also possible, with most activity occurring later in the day and at night, due to a wave of low pressure moving by on the front, slowing its eastward progress. After the front goes by, a second wave of low pressure will slow its progression offshore. This means that clouds will probably be fairly widespread at least to start Thursday, but most additional shower activity should occur to the southeast, just impacting Cape Cod and the Islands for the most part. But the delayed clearing eventually gets here, and fair weather dominates later Thursday through Friday, along with it being somewhat cooler. Saturday’s weather is in question. Another upper low visits the Northeast, and a disturbance accompanying it may bring back cloudiness and the chance of some wet weather as well. Don’t cancel any Saturday plans just yet. It’s possible this disturbance threat has more bark than bite, or its timing is such that it arrives at night instead of daytime. I’ll monitor trends over the next few days…

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy through mid afternoon then increasing clouds mainly west of I-95 later in the day. Highs 59-66 Cape Cod / Islands, 67-74 eastern CT and RI to MA South Shore and Cape Ann, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind SW increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A brief evening shower possible southwestern to south central NH and adjacent northern MA. Lows 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers possible, chance of thunderstorms, favoring areas west of I-95. Highs 66-73 except cooler South Coast to MA South Shore. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of morning showers, mainly Cape Cod / Islands. Highs 58-65. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Potential for rain favoring later in the day. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 10-14)

Blocking pattern re-establishes. Cooler weather favored with pop-up showers underneath an upper low early in the period. Mid period rain potential. Late period fair weather expected.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 15-19)

Blocking pattern holds as does the cool overall regime but looks drier over wetter.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 4-8)

A warm front goes by early today with patchy clouds, otherwise sun becomes abundant and a southwesterly air flow behind the front with high pressure over the Mid Atlantic results in a warm-up with fair weather, but also increased wind and as a result an increase in outdoor brush fire danger. This continues Tuesday as high pressure builds in the western Atlantic off the US East Coast. Clouds increase later Tuesday as a result of a cold front approaching from the west, but it will stay far enough west so that we stay rain-free. It is Wednesday when this front will make a pass across New England with showers likely, and even the chance of a few thunderstorms embedded. Timing of shower and storm chances will be fine-tuned over the next couple updates. While Wednesday is still a mild day, once the cold front goes by, Thursday will turn cooler. The frontal boundary is expected to slow offshore while a wave of low pressure travels up along it. One change from yesterday’s ideas is that the front appears it will be just far enough offshore and the low pressure wave flat enough so as to keep most of the rain passing offshore as well – maybe clipping southeastern areas – which is the scenario I’m leaning toward at this point. However, I’ll monitor any trends here and update as necessary. By Friday, cooler weather is re-established, and I cannot rule out a pop-up shower from diurnal clouds triggered by sun-heated land under cold air aloft as an upper trough of low pressure moves into the region. Most areas should remain dry, however, as we get to the end of the work week.

TODAY: Patchy clouds early, otherwise lots of sun. Highs 58-65 South Coast, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 48-55. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy through mid afternoon then increasing clouds mainly west of I-95 later in the day. Highs 58-65 Cape Cod / Islands, 66-73 eastern CT and RI to MA South Shore and Cape Ann, 74-81 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers possible, chance of thunderstorms, favoring areas west of I-95. Highs 66-73 except cooler South Coast to MA South Shore. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, mainly RI and southeastern MA. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun / cloud mix. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 9-13)

Blocking pattern re-establishes. Cooler weather favored with pop-up showers underneath an upper low early in the period (May 9-10 weekend). Watching for a more widespread rain mid or late period but uncertain on that possibility this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 14-18)

Blocking pattern holds as does the cool overall regime but looks drier over wetter at this time.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 3-7)

Low pressure passed by to the southeast of New England overnight giving a period of rain to far southeastern MA, the last of which is exiting Cape Cod early this morning. As the low pulls away, a pool of cold air associated with an upper level low crossing the region will create a lot of stratocumulus and cumulus clouds, some of which can produce a pop-up shower, otherwise it’ll be a day of limited sun, an active breeze, and a cool feel to the air, but with mainly dry conditions. The upper low pulls out tonight and we clear up but are quite cool. High pressure building across the Mid Atlantic and off the coast Monday and Tuesday will promote fair weather and a warming trend for our region, though it will become rather breezy, especially on Tuesday, which will also be the warmest of the two days. As is usual, a southwesterly air flow will be modified by cooler ocean water and it won’t be able to warm up as much along the South Coast and especially across Cape Cod and the Islands. The midweek – Wednesday and Thursday – will feature unsettled weather as a trough of low pressure approaches and a frontal system triggers showers and possible thunderstorms on Wednesday. After the front passes by on Thursday, it will slow down while another wave of low pressure moves up along it, bringing the chance of rain that day.

TODAY: Early-morning overcast southeastern MA while rain exits Cape Cod. Otherwise, lots of clouds, limited sun, and the chance of a passing shower. Highs 54-61. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65 South Coast, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 48-55. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65 South Coast, 65-72 interior CT / RI / MA South Shore / Cape Ann MA, 72-79 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers possible, chance of thunderstorms, favoring areas west of I-95. Highs 66-73 except cooler South Coast to MA South Shore. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, especially in the afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 8-12)

Cooler by the end of the week / weekend (May 8-10) with mostly fair weather except watch for a wave of low pressure passing by on May 9 with the potential for a period of rain, and possible pop-up showers May 10. Fair, milder weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 13-17)

Some blocking returns with odds favoring our region on the cooler side of it. However wet weather chances may be limited.