DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

February’s got 3 days left in it, and they’ll give us mainly fair weather and manageable temperatures. However, there is a word of caution for this morning – and hopefully you’re reading this before you go outside, because depending on your location there can be some very slippery untreated surfaces out there due to freeze-up of snow-melt, and in some areas additional moisture on the ground from a batch of convective showers ranging from snow to sleet to freezing rain around midnight, which was occuring with the passage of a cold front. This front trailed from the low pressure area that sent its warm front through earlier Wednesday with a batch of snow (light accumulations) and some rain to the south. Other than the icy ground and some patchy freezing fog this morning, we’ll see a day of fair weather today, but some clouds will increase in the sky as we move through the afternoon, especially to the south, as a low pressure area starts to move by to our south. It looks like its snow shield will stay just offshore of the South Coast through this evening before the system moves away and high pressure builds in with fair, cool weather on Friday. On Saturday, the final day of the month, a moisture-starved cold front will move through with some passing clouds, but I am not expecting any precipitation to occur with this one. Sunday, the first day of March, another disturbance will move through during the morning and midday, and this one will have some moisture to work with – the result being a period of snow and mixed precipitation. And the active pattern continues Monday as another low pressure area passes just to our south bringing clouds, but probably keeping its precipitation offshore of the South Coast, similar to what occurs late today. I’ll keep an eye on that in case it trends further north.

TODAY: Sun then clouds increase. Highs 35-42. Wind W to N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds then clearing. Lows 5-12 except 13-20 coastal and urban areas. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunshine dominates. Highs 33-40. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 37-44. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 17-24. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with snow likely in the morning, then increasing sun in the afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 11-18. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouding over. Highs 24-31. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)

Boundary between milder south and colder north with active jet stream means unsettled weather chances March 4 and again March 6-7, based on current timing expectations. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)

Unsettled weather potentials start and end the period with fair weather between, which may include a brief warming trend.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Interesting early morning temperature distribution in the region. The sky stayed clear longer overnight in a portion of southeastern MA (especially Plymouth County) with calm wind and perfect conditions for radiational cooling. As of 6:00 a.m. the temperatures were below 10 in much of that region, but quickly ranged up to the 20s many other areas, even some lower 30s nearer the South Coast. The coldest will be eliminated fairly quickly as some weather changes take place during this morning. Low pressure travels north of our region today and early tonight. Its warm front produces a period of snow this morning except mix/rain into this afternoon on Cape Cod, and its cold front can bring a shower of snow/mix north, mix/rain south from west to east across the region this evening. A small area of high pressure brings a fair weather interlude during the day Thursday before a low pressure wave travels south of our region at night. This system may be close enough to produce a quick period of light snow near the South Coast, but should otherwise be more “miss” than “hit”. Fair weather returns for Friday and continues into Saturday, but a strong cold front coming through the region later Saturday may produce a rain or snow shower in some locations, leading to a shot of windy, cold, dry weather as March begins on Sunday.

TODAY: Cloudy morning and midday with a period of snow of up to but mostly under 1 inch, except mix/rain South Coast / Cape Cod with no accumulation, followed by breaking clouds from west to east. Highs 32-39, coldest central MA to mildest Cape Cod area. Wind variable up to 10 MPH this morning becoming SW 5-15 MPH with a few higher gusts this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy with a possible shower of snow / sleet north of I-90, sleet / rain I-90 southward mid evening to a little after midnight from west to east. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow possible near the South Coast. Lows 22-29. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Early clouds, then sun returns. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind NW to W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Plenty of sun, then late clouds with a rain or snow shower possible. Highs 37-44. Wind W to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a snow shower possible early, then clearing. Lows 15-22. Wind shifting to NW 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)

Wave of low pressure passes close by or to south March 2 – precipitation threat but may just miss area. Additional disturbances bring precipitation opportunities March 4 and 6, based on current timing in an active pattern. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)

Active pattern with additional unsettled weather possibilities. More prominent temperature variability may occur depending on tracks of weather system as we will be near a general boundary between milder air to the south and cold air in Canada.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

High pressure brings fair weather today to aid in storm cleanup / recovery efforts, which will obviously take some time in the hardest-hit areas from the MA South Coast to South Shore and in much of RI too, both due to the zone of highest snowfall and also many power outages aided by strong winds from the storm that has finally moved away, but will be talked about for a long time to come. And you probably don’t want to hear that we’re not done with the active pattern. The good news is I don’t see a repeat of what just happened by any stretch any time soon, and most certainly not in the upcoming several days. The next system comes our way via the Great Lakes and is good for a light snow fall Wednesday morning. A follow up low passes just south of our area on Thursday night and early Friday, and may just miss, or graze the region with a light snowfall before fair weather returns during Friday and through Saturday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 21-28. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow of 1 to 3 inches north of I-90, a mix of snow/sleet/rain to the south with less than 1 inch of snow. Highs 31-38. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of snow, favoring southern areas, overnight. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy early with a chance of snow in southern areas, followed by clearing. Highs 32-39. Wind NE shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 1-5)

Watching March 1-2 for a threat of unsettled weather (rain/snow threat). Temperatures near to below normal with a strong cold shot possible late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 6-10)

Watching March 6-7 for another potential stretch of unsettled weather (rain/mix/snow threat). Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Storm day. And it’s a decent winter storm with bands of heavy snow interspersed with lighter areas, typical for an intensifying storm, which is passing southeast of our region today. And as it does so, the bands of heavier snow with lulls of lighter snow will continue through the morning before a taper-off progresses west to east during the afternoon, with the result being heaviest amounts southwest of Boston, but still significant amounts in much of the remainder of the region, with relative low(er) spots in southeastern NH and far northeastern MA due to less time in heavier snow, and over Outer Cape Cod and especially Nantucket due to wetter snow. Minor to moderate coastal flooding occurs at east-facing and north-facing locations around high tide hours, limited by astronomical tides that are not that high, thankfully. Where heavy snow and strong wind combines there is a higher risk of power outages. The area most likely to experience blizzard conditions (3+ hours of visibility 1/4 mile or less due to falling and/or blowing snow, sustained wind or frequent wind gusts of 35 MPH or greater) will be from Cape Ann through Boston to southeastern MA. With intense bands of snow, thunder is possible, with highest chance of this occurring south of Boston until midday. The storm exits tonight and as clean-up and recovery progress on Tuesday it will do so with fair weather as high pressure moves in. But we are still in an active pattern and the next low pressure system is coming our way for Wednesday via the Great Lakes. This system is expected to be minor in comparison, bringing some snow, mix, and rain, with up to a few inches of snow favoring areas mostly north of I-90. Today I’m a little more optimistic about another break Thursday before the next storm system, passing just to the south based on current indications, brings a snow and mix chance back to us on Friday.

TODAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times morning, including the chance of thunder, especially south of I-90. Snow tapering off west to east afternoon. Accumulations of 10-18 inches in general, but some areas of under 10 inches can exist, favoring far northeastern MA and southeastern NH, as well as Outer Cape Cod and especially Nantucket. A band or two of accumulation of 18-25 inches is most likely from the Plymouth MA to Providence RI areas into parts of eastern CT. Highs 27-34, coldest well inland, mildest Cape Cod. Wind NE 20-35 MPH, gusts 45-65 MPH, strongest along the coast where some gusts in the 65-75 MPH range can occur.

TONIGHT: Clouds break. Lows 20-27. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 21-28. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow of 1 to 3 inches north of I-90, a mix of snow/sleet/rain to the south with less than 1 inch of snow. Highs 32-39. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Precipitation ends. Lows 25-32. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/snow. Highs 31-38. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

Watching March 1-2 for a threat of unsettled weather (rain/snow threat). Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)

Watching March 5-7 for another potential stretch of unsettled weather (rain/mix/snow threat). Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

A cloudy but quiet Sunday ahead of a winter storm that will whack the region with snow and wind tonight and Monday as low pressure emerging off the Mid Atlantic Coast intensifies rapidly and passes southeast of New England. The closer to the coast you are the wetter the snow will be. A coastal front will separate temperatures closer to freezing from temperatures below freezing – the boundary being in the vicinity of I-95 during the storm. Wetter snow combined with strongest wind gusts in the coastal plain make chances of power outages much higher in these locations. Mildest air and wettest snow holds accumulations down somewhat over Cape Cod and the Islands. Areas just west of the coastal front can maximize accumulation due to enhancement of snowfall. We also have to watch for not only bands of heavier snowfall, but bands of drier air where snow can be less intense. Thundersnow is a low chance but is possible in some of the heavier snow bands. The peak of the storm will be during the 12 hours from midnight to noon Monday with a quick increase leading into it and a slow wind-down following it. The NWS has issued a blizzard warning from the NH Seacoast through coastal Essex County, Metro Boston, all of southeastern MA, and RI. These are the areas most likely to see blizzard criteria met – sustained winds or frequent wind gusts of 35 MPH or greater and visibility under 1/4 mile for at least 3 hours. Accumulation expectation is 10 to 18 inches for most areas with the most likely area failing to reach 10 being Cape Cod and the Islands and isolated greater-than-18 inch pockets a potential under any quasi-stationary bands of heaviest snow. Storm wind-down is complete by Monday night then we get a break with high pressure bringing fair weather Tuesday. The next low pressure system comes our way via the Great Lakes Wednesday with some snow/mix/rain. This one will not be a major event. Unsettled weather lingers into Thursday as well and the next storm system approaches by late Thursday from the Ohio Valley with another rain/mix/snow threat. More details on the midweek unsettled episodes in the next post.

TODAY: Cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow arrives south to north, heavy at times late evening and overnight. Thunder possible near South Coast overnight. Lows 25-32. Wind NE increasing to 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coast with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Overcast. Snow, heavy at times morning, including the chance of thunder. Snow tapering off west to east afternoon. Highs 27-34, coldest well inland, mildest Cape Cod. Wind NE 15-35 MPH, gusts 40-60 MPH, strongest along the coast.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow likely. Highs 30-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional rain/mix/snow expected. Lows 26-33. Highs 33-40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Clearing out February 27 based on current timing. Briefly dry weather, then next unsettled weather threat comes in the March 1-2 time frame. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)

One or two additional unsettled weather threats as the active pattern continues in early March. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

The low pressure system that’s been impacting our weather since yesterday lingers today as some additional snow shower activity continues with an elongated area of low pressure stretching across the region. While this system has produced up to a few inches of snow – not a heavy snowfall accumulation – it has been a sticky and wet snow for many areas, a bit harder to clear than many of our events this winter. But it does come to an end today as slightly drier air arrives on the back side of departing low pressure. However we get little time to breathe as the next storm system organizes off the Mid Atlantic Coast Sunday then intensifies and tracks northeastward, passing southeast of New England Sunday night and early Monday. This will be a higher-impact system with snow and wind, as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding issues around high tide times. The question still to be answered is snowfall amounts, with guidance ranging from the classic hit and maximum snow potential to a a track a little further offshore with the heaviest snowfall further southeast and less to the northwest. I favor the latter by a slight margin, but with the storm close enough to produce a significant accumulation throughout the region. Initial accumulation forecast (most of this falling from late Sunday evening until midday Monday): Greater than 4 inches regionwide, greater than 8 inches I-95 belt, and greater than 12 inches southeastern MA and RI. I’ll be refining this in comments below and with the Sunday morning update. The storm moves away late Monday with fair weather returning and continuing into the middle of next week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering snow showers this morning. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Highs 30-37. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with snow, heaviest I-95 belt eastward and I-90 belt southward. Lows 24-31. Wind NE increasing to 15-25 MPH inland and 25-35 MPH coast with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Overcast with snow, heaviest I-95 belt eastward and I-90 belt southward during the morning, tapering off in the afternoon with breaking clouds. Highs 27-34. Wind 15-35 MPH, strongest coast, gusts 35-55 MPH, strongest higher elevations and coast.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

Watching for two separate systems bringing unsettled weather, the first in the February 26-27 time frame, the second in the March 1-2 time frame. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)

Fair weather early period, unsettled weather returns later in the period as the active pattern continues. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

The next weather event in our active pattern stares us in the face this morning and while some areas saw a colorful sunrise, an overcast day is ahead. As approaching low pressure nudges a frontal boundary northward toward our area, the precipitation shield it generates will overspread the region starting by midday. With borderline temperatures in place we can see it start as rain or a mix the closer to the coast and further south you are, and snow to the northwest, and the snow should be dominant at first, but warmer air moving in at mid levels eventually means more mixing and rain, especially south of the Route 2 corridor, and this will limit or even prevent accumulation of any snow / sleet the further south you go. Yesterday’s forecast ranges remain in place for this update, but I am leaning toward the lower ends of them. This will include some additional minor accumulation as the low pressure area redevelops along the front that never quite makes it through the region, and pulls slightly colder air back to the south later tonight into Saturday, when some lingering light snow and snow showers can occur not only during the day, but even into the evening. These accumulations, stretched out over 24 hours, while not impressive, will be even less so in real time since they occur not on a quick burst, but over a longer time period. Expectations: Coating to 1 inch I-90 southward except 1-2 inches higher elevations south central MA and adjacent northwestern RI and northeastern CT, 1-3 inches Route 2 corridor northward except 3-5 inches higher elevations far north central MA and interior southern NH (again leaning toward lower ends of these ranges). I continue to monitor guidance and synoptic set-up regarding the system that follows this, discussed at length this week, and repeated here by saying there is pretty much no change to the ideas, as I continue to lean toward a quicker-moving, slower-developing low pressure area along the Mid Atlantic Coast that eventually starts to intensify more rapidly as it tracks northeastward, passing a fair distance southeast of New England late Sunday to early Monday. By then it will be cold enough that we only talk about a snow shield associated with it (no mixing). The storm is expected to be far enough offshore so that its main snow shield has the most significant impact on southeastern MA, especially Cape Cod and the Islands, while a lighter snowfall takes place elsewhere due to the interaction of this system with upper level low pressure still having to cross the region, with the “maximum” precipitation period Sunday evening before it departs on Monday. The wake of the system presents us with dry and seasonably chilly conditions for the balance of Monday through Tuesday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives midday-afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with mix/snow tapering to snow showers. Lows 27-34. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with occasional snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Afternoon snow develops, favoring southeastern areas / Cape Cod. Highs 30-37. Lows 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Clouds break for sun. A few snow showers possible favoring eastern areas. Highs 30-37. Wind N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH far eastern areas, with higher gusts, diminishing late.

MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 16-23. Highs 31-38. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Watching for additional unsettled weather in the February 25-27 time frame and again as March arrives. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)

Unsettled potentials start and end the period with fair weather between the two chances. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

The busy pattern rolls on but we get a break today with a small area of high pressure providing fair weather. We then enter an unsettled stretch from Friday until early Monday when we are impacted by two separate weather systems associated with a generally west-to-east boundary between Canadian cold and lingering Pacific air over much of the eastern US. The next low pressure waves comes at the Northeast via the Ohio Valley on Friday, with the boundary being pulled northward by the low, but running into the influence of high pressure in eastern Canada. This will force a halt to the front and a redevelopment of low pressure to the southeast of New England which will then move away from the region Saturday. Elongated low pressure – the remains of the original low, will still be over the region on Saturday. The sequence of precipitation with this system will be a large area arriving from southwest to northeast from late morning to early afternoon Friday, at which time we’ll also see an intrusion of warmer air aloft. The magnitude of the latter will help determine where it snows and where sleet and rain takes place. Latest trends on short range guidance is a little milder for this portion of the event. As the redeveloped low takes over to the southeast and starts to move away, colder air does shift back south at the same time the precipitation shield is becoming more broken up, so we see a transition to occasional mix to snow and eventually just snow showers as we head into Saturday – this tapering off by later afternoon or evening. Snowfall accumulation potential is greatest over interior and higher elevation locations with this system. My expectations are for a coating to 1 inch generally south of I-90, closer to 1 inch or just over that in higher elevations of south central MA, northwestern RI, and northeastern CT, and a general 1 to 3 inches elsewhere but a 3 to 5 inch potential over higher elevations of north central MA into interior southern NH, where are areas that can snow for the longest amount of time with the least amount of mix / rain involved. And then attention shifts to the next low pressure development which will take place along the southern Mid Atlantic Coast on Sunday. I continue to lean toward a slightly faster and slower-developing low that tracks pretty far offshore to the southeast of New England by early Monday. If this is indeed how it plays out, the best chance of steadier snow and certainly stronger wind would be over Cape Cod / far southeastern areas while lighter snowfall takes place to the north and west between Sunday afternoon and early Monday. Regardless of track, the storm will be intensifying and pulling away later Monday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives midday-afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with mix/snow tapering to snow showers. Lows 27-34. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY / SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Afternoon snow develops, favoring southeastern areas / Cape Cod. Highs 30-37. Lows 23-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Clouds break for sun. A few snow showers possible favoring eastern areas. Highs 30-37. Wind N 10-20 MPH except 20-30 MPH far eastern areas, with higher gusts, diminishing late.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Watching for additional unsettled weather in the February 25-27 time frame. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)

Another threat of wintry weather exists around the start of March with fair weather following.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

An active pattern will throw a low of unsettled weather at our region over the next several days, on a wavering border between cold air in Canada and mild Pacific air residing in a large part of the eastern US. Today’s event is a fairly narrow band of precipitation coming along the boundary with the help of a weak wave of low pressure. It’s mild enough that we should see it start as rain then shift toward sleet to snow, but it will be in a fairly narrow band that may leave parts of the Merrimack Valley, northeastern MA, and southern NH out of most of it, with the steadier precipitation focused to the southwest of Boston. As for snowfall accumulation, I’m not looking for much, maybe up to an inch or two where it snows longest / steadiest, which I think will stretch from Boston’s southwestern suburbs west northwestward across central MA. The conveyor belt of moisture goes dry by late evening when drier air moves in, and this will last through Thursday which will be a fairly decent day. And then we wait for the next batch of moisture to come out way with another low pressure area, this one slightly more organized than its predecessor. Its precipitation area will be a little more widespread and cross the region during Friday afternoon and night with a variety of precipitation, favoring rain / mix to the south and mix / snow to the north. This time I favor up to a few inches of snow accumulation favoring north central MA into southern NH, but will refine those details over the next 48 hours. Behind this one can come some lingering snow showers into Saturday morning which may be formidable enough for some minor additional accumulation in some areas. The next one to watch has been shown to have a lot more potential to be a significant winter storm on a lot of guidance – a solution that I have doubted quite a bit, but don’t reject 100%. Watching that. However, how I think it plays out is based on the behavior of a regional blocking to our west and northwest by then – high pressure over southern Hudson Bay of Canada and elongated upper low pressure over the Great Lakes. I believe this forces the disturbance fueling the next system to move a little more quickly to the east and a little further south, igniting low pressure along the southern Mid Atlantic Coast early Sunday which then moves east northeastward, passing south of New England Sunday night. My early idea on this system is that while it does start to intensify fairly quickly, it does so a little more slowly than many model depictions indicate and with a track far enough south that southern portions of our region are side-swiped by the main precipitation area (probably snow as it should be cold enough) and the remainder of the region sees lighter snowfall from a pressure weakness between that storm and the aforementioned upper low which will be sliding eastward across northern New England by that time. I’ll continue to monitor this threat.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog into mid morning. Precipitation arrives west to east midday-afternoon as mainly rain then trending to sleet and snow later in northern areas, with greatest chance of steadier precipitation central and east central MA southward, less chance in NH. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Mix/snow probable evening with snow accumulation of a coating to 1 inch, except up to 2 inches possible higher elevations mainly central and south central MA. Precipitation ends and clouds break overnight. Watch for icy spots on untreated surfaces. Lows 28-35. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives midday-afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with mix/snow, tapering off overnight. Early call on snow accumulating for this event less 1 to 3 inches except under 1 inch toward the South Coast. Lows 28-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered snow showers until midday, then partial sunshine. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Highs 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

There maybe lingering early snow February 23 in southeastern areas, otherwise dry weather into the middle of next week before the next unsettled weather threat appears in the February 26-27 timeframe. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 4)

Another threat of wintry weather exists around the start of March with fair weather before and again after. Temperatures mostly below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

Lots to monitor the next few days as our pattern sets up to feature cold high pressure in Canada, continued milder air to our south, and a boundary between them hanging out in our general region. Today, a weak disturbance moving through this morning will bring a touch of light snow and perhaps a few patches of freezing drizzle to the region. The latter could create some slipper spots on any untreated surfaces, but this will not be widespread. Another surge of moisture comes along the boundary on Wednesday, producing a rather narrow area of snow / mix / rain in a west-northwest to east-southeast orientation across our region. The higher snow chances are to the north, while rain and pockets of sleet occur to the south, with a trend for a rain and mix to snow line to drift southward with time, but this will only last about 6 to 10 hours before it pushes off to the southeast and drier air arrives later at night. Dry conditions and some sunshine are expected on Thursday before the next moisture surge arrives later on Friday with another round of snow / mix / rain from sometime that afternoon through Friday night. The disturbance that causes that will organize into a slightly stronger low pressure area as it departs by early Saturday, and upper level low pressure moving through can trigger some additional snow showers on Saturday.

TODAY: Cloudy this morning with a couple periods of very light to light snow and a few potential pockets of freezing drizzle. Clouds break for sun at times this afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind S up to 10 MPH shifting to W.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 18-25. Wind W up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow arrives midday on. Highs 33-40. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Mix/snow probable evening with snow accumulation of a coating to 1 1/2 inch, except pockets of 1 1/2 to 3 inches possible in higher elevations mainly north of Route 2. Lows 28-35. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with mix/snow, tapering off overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

General “battle-zone” pattern stays in place heading into the final week of February. Watching another storm passing to the south later February 22, favoring a weaker, progressive system with some lighter snowfall here. Fair weather interlude follows before more unsettled / wintry weather threatens by late period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 3)

Wintry weather threat ends February and another may start March before fair, cold weather ends the period.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

As previously prognosticated, low pressure passed far enough south to keep its precipitation shield mainly to the south overnight, and the process is finishing off this morning. Even though on radar you see the northern edge of the precipitation (snow) over Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket, the air at the surface is too dry for anything to reach the ground there. Some mid level clouds sit across much of our region underneath a higher cloud shield to start the day, but as low pressure departs seaward, we’ll trend back to some sunshine as today goes on, only to see more clouds arrive from the west at day’s end, and overtake the sky tonight into early Tuesday morning. This is from a northern stream low pressure disturbance that will pass over and north of our region early Tuesday, producing some scattered snow showers, enough to create some dustings in some areas. Fair weather returns during the day Tuesday, but this doesn’t last long. As previously discussed, the pattern shifts into one that features cold high pressure building from central through eastern Canada while mild Pacific air still resides in much of the continental US. The battle line (aka frontal boundary) that marks the battle between these air masses will situate itself near and south of New England from mid to late week. We’ll eye two waves of low pressure set to come along that boundary. The first of these approaches Wednesday and passes by at night, producing a period of precipitation from Wednesday afternoon into night. With borderline temperatures, we will likely see a variation from rain to the south to a mix/snow to the north, likely ending as snow/mix at night. Currently, this looks like a relatively minor event, but we will have to watch for a rather narrow band of somewhat heavier precipitation that can exist with this system, at least for a brief time. Drier air Thursday means some sun tries to return, but the next low pressure waves clouds us back up by Friday when we eye another area of precipitation approaching with a rain/mix/snow chance that afternoon and night.

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun which later on give way to clouds – all with a west to east progression. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a snow shower possible early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain/mix/snow arrives west to east afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Mix/snow probable evening, ending overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds break for sun at times. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds re-thicken overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain arrives afternoon-night. Highs 35-42. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

The late-week system lingers with some precipitation into the start of the weekend on February 21, with a couple lingering snow showers possible February 22 as a colder air mass arrives underneath an upper low while the surface features moves away to the east. Expecting dry weather February 23-24 with the next precipitation threat presenting itself at the end of the period with the next system moving in from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 2)

Near to below normal temps. Unsettled start, fair weather mid period, unsettled again late period, based on the expectation of a continued active storm track.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Low pressure will pass well south of New England tonight. Its cloud shield will filter / dim the sun as today goes on followed by the reverse process on Monday as the low pressure area heads out to sea. There will be a trough between that offshore system and another disturbance well to its northwest. Some light snow will be generated by this boundary to the west of our region but is likely to dry up in battle with dry air before ever reaching the WHW forecast area other than maybe a few stray snowflakes into CT overnight. The aforementioned disturbance in the northern jet stream will pass through our region, parent low pressure passing to our north, Monday night and Tuesday morning with perhaps a few light snow showers. We start to see the results of a shift in the weather pattern when we get to the middle of this coming week. High pressure will be building from central to eastern Canada with plenty of cold air up there, while mild Pacific air still occupies a lot of the central and eastern US. The boundary between these will establish itself somewhere in the Northeast starting Wednesday and a wave of low pressure will be coming along it, bringing clouds back into our region during Wednesday, including the chance of some precipitation later Wednesday to early Thursday, based on current expecting timing. Precipitation type will be determined by the timing / atmospheric profile, but rain/mix/snow are all on the table as possible. However, I do think this system will be on the wane, in terms of ability to produce precipitation, as it moves eastward, so at this point I’m not expecting a significant event, and we should see some drying on Thursday behind it. With the boundary so close by, the temperature forecast those days is a little tricky, so keep in mind that the numbers that I put up in that detailed forecast that follows can change a little more than is typical as I update this forecast over the next few days…

TODAY: Sunny start, then increasing clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. An overnight snow flurry possible eastern CT. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy start, then increasing sun. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a snow shower possible early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding over. Rain/mix/snow possible afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Mix/snow probable evening, diminishing chances overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds break for sun at times. Highs 35-42. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Watching for another unsettled weather threat with boundary nearby early in the period, then some snow showers mid period with upper low passing by, followed by fair and somewhat colder weather late period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25 – MARCH 1)

Pattern trends a little colder and potentially stormier during the final days of February to the start of March with Canadian cold becoming more dominant but boundary region still nearby to the south.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 14-18)

A small, quick-moving upper low crosses New England today and can result in a few snow showers, however most of the region will remain dry with just some varying amounts of cloud cover, most extensive this morning and more 50/50 with sun this afternoon. Continuing to monitor a storm set to pass south of our region from late Sunday through early Monday. We’ll get under its cloud shield while its precipitation shield will stay south of the region. This is a southern stream system and will be followed by a northern stream system that will pass north of our region Monday night and early Tuesday with some additional cloudiness and perhaps a snow flurry. As we head toward the middle of next week, cold high pressure builds in east central Canada while a warm front approaches our region, increasing the cloud cover by Wednesday. More about this part of the pattern evolution in the 6-10 day section. Detailed 5-day first!

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with perhaps a light snow shower in a few locations this morning, then a sun/cloud mix this afternoon with a late-day snow shower possible, favoring areas to the north of I-90. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, then increasing clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy start, then increasing sun. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a snow shower possible early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 13-20. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 35-42. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

While a frontal boundary (cold to north, mild to south), sits nearby and waves around a bit, the overall trend should be to push southward with stronger than modeled high pressure in eastern Canada. Cannot rule out a couple episodes of precipitation early period, should end up mainly dry with a milder start and a colder finish to this period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

Leaning toward colder with one or two wintry precipitation threat potentials down the home stretch of February.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 13-17)

High pressure provides fair and seasonably chilly weather today, though if outside you will notice it feeling “not so cold” with the lack of wind and the higher sun angle. A quick-moving disturbance passes by early Saturday around the base of an upper low moving across southeastern Canada and northern New England. Most of the snow shower activity with this system should dry up but a few may survive the trip across our area in the pre-dawn to mid morning. I can’t rule out one more wandering down from northern New England later in the day too as the upper low departs. Weak high pressure brings fair weather Sunday. Low pressure in the southern jet stream will be passing south of our region Sunday night and Monday. It’s cloud shield will be about all we see from that. During the same time frame, a northern jet stream disturbance will be coming our way, passing just to our north late Monday and early Tuesday with some clouds and perhaps a snow shower, with fair weather returning for the balance of Tuesday as it departs the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds return overnight with a snow shower chance favoring areas west of Boston pre-dawn. Lows 14-21. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Chance of snow showers, favoring early morning and late afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy with most sun midday. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 20-27. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a snow shower possible early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Briefly milder middle of next week before Canadian high pressure cuts off further warming and chills the region back down. What I’m not sure of yet is how close the boundary between mild air south and cold air north will be. Medium range model trends have been to place this boundary further south the last 48 hours and I don’t believe that trend of model adjustment is done. So while these current model runs show some unsettled weather one or two times heading toward the end of next week, I am leaning toward a drier regime here. Will monitor.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Continuing to see a trend for a colder pattern and potential wintry precipitation event or two before February is over.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 12-16)

Back-side influence of upper low pressure (and a larger surface storm well to our east and northeast) will continue today. This comes in the form of morning snow showers from the Seacoast of NH through northeastern MA with lots of coastal cloudiness, and a gusty breeze across the region through the day. A difference between this post-storm air mass and many others this winter is that this one is not of arctic origin, and while the wind definitely has a bite, the less-cold air mass combined with the higher sun angle will make the breezy conditions more tolerable today, although that sun I mentioned will probably have to give up sky to more cloudiness as the day goes on – similar to but to a lesser degree than yesterday. High pressure to our southwest expands northeastward enough to shut the wind down and clear the sky more for tonight and Friday. We then look to a small but potent disturbance at upper levels with a surface trough reflection to move through the region on Saturday. While most of that day will see fair weather, there is a decent shot of one or two rounds of snow showers between the pre-dawn and sunset hours – basically a day to just keep an eye on the sky and radar if you have outside and travel plans, as any of these snow showers can be visibility-cutters, albeit for brief periods of time. This weekend is a holiday weekend for many, and as we get to Sunday we see fair and seasonable weather, but will be keeping an eye on low pressure to our southwest. This system has been under the expected media scrutiny all week (will it? won’t it?). I do not think we’re in from a hit from this system as it fails to phase with another system well to the north. This leaves us with the expectation for fair weather here again for Monday, though it may start as a cloudy day with the system passing by to our south before the sun returns for a while. However, more clouds arrive from the west later, these being associated with the northern system that the southern system will not be phasing with.

TODAY: Lots of clouds eastern coastal areas with some snow flurries NH Seacoast and northeastern MA into mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-17 rural and valley areas, 15-22 elsewhere, mildest coastal plain and urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifts to W then drops to near calm.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds return overnight with a snow shower chance favoring areas west of Boston pre-dawn. Lows 14-21. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Chance of snow showers, favoring early morning and late afternoon. Highs 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy with most sun midday. Highs 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

This presents as a fairly quiet period with one interruption about February 18 as low pressure passes to our north with a minor precipitation event far more likely than something more significant. Lack of arctic air, abundance of Pacific air, which means temperatures for the 5-day period near to slightly above normal, the mild air modified (cooled) by existing snow cover. However, the snow cover, subjected to the relatively mild air and higher sun angle, will be accelerating its “shrinkage” as time goes on.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

Following a trend back toward a colder pattern and potential wintry precipitation event or two before month’s end.