DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)
High humidity remains in place today while a weak back-door cold front makes a visit from the northeast into southeastern NH and eastern MA, perhaps as far south and west and northern RI later in the day. A very weak disturbance is passing by aloft while this is all taking place. These ingredients bring the chance for some pop up showers and thunderstorms, though I do not expect coverage to be very high. We have a few showers to start today already in south central NH and a few southwest of Boston, but most of them will fade as the disturbance triggering them remains weak. The back-door frontal boundary can help trigger a few more as we move through the day, but again I would expect these to be isolated. Further west, outside of the front’s influence, a couple air mass showers and storms can also pop up. Bottom line for today: You’ll probably stay dry, but keep an eye to the sky (and on the radar) just in case. Inland is hottest while the coast gets some relief, but humidity is up regionwide, so muggy regardless. Tonight, a weakening frontal boundary moves through from west to east, but I only expect a couple of showers and thunderstorms to be possible as it moves through, with many areas missing out on those. The passage of this front does bring lower humidity for the weekend, especially Saturday when we have a northwest breeze transporting some Canadian air into the region. This is modified air, however, so it will still be quite a warm day. Sunday, high pressure shifts offshore and our wind turns southerly ahead of an approaching cold front, so the humidity levels tick up just a tad, but remain below oppressive levels. The southerly breeze will be active at times which will help help counteract the warmth and moderate humidity if you’re outside. The shower and thunderstorm threat increase from west to east at night as the front moves through the region, then offshore by early Monday when a shower can linger in far eastern areas to start the day. We’ll experience a cooler, drier northwesterly air flow behind the front on Monday, and a westerly breeze with moderating temperatures on Tuesday as high pressure slides to our south. Previous ideas about a wave of low pressure passing by to the south that day have shifted and that system would be well out to sea with a more progressive high sliding off the Mid Atlantic Coast at that time.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible – favoring south central NH early in the day, and favoring areas mostly west of I-95 in the afternoon but low coverage with most areas staying rain-free. Highs 77-84 coastal plain, 85-92 inland with warmest in central MA to southwestern NH. Dew point 65+. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH coastal plain eastern MA & NH, SW up to 10 MPH further inland areas.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly cloudy late evening and overnight with a shower or thunderstorm possible from west to east. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 82-89. Dew point falls below 60. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point sub-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun filtered by high clouds. Highs 84-91 except 77-84 South Coast / Cape Cod. Dew point creeps back over 60 by late-day. Wind S 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A good chance of showers with possible thunderstorms from west to east. Fog patches. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible especially around any storms.
MONDAY: Early clouds with a shower potential especially east, then a sun / cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls into 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind W under 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 17-21)
Fair June 17 but clouds increase ahead of a warm front, which passes by early June 18 and sets up a shower and thunderstorm chance prior to the passage of a cold front as low pressure travels north of the region. Fair, breezy, cooler weather follows it June 19 then high pressure dominates with fair weather and a slow warming trend on the June 20-21 weekend. The Summer Solstice occurs at 4:24 a.m. EDT June 21.
DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 22-26)
Mixed signals from guidance and the pattern is a little hard to define in the early days of astronomical summer as we head into late June. I do see the tendency for a somewhat progressive pattern, and one or two disturbances bringing shower and thunderstorm chances. One question to answer is if a mid period low pressure wave brings us a shot of more substantial rainfall. Many details to-be-determined.