Sunday June 23 2024 Forecast (8:30AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 23-27)

Much has been said about the severe weather threat for today, but it’s important to stress this, so it’s understood. The greatest threat for severe weather (i.e., thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind, large hail, and isolated tornadoes) exists in the northwestern portion of the WHW forecast area – southwestern NH and north central MA, as the eastern extension of the higher threat area which extends further into NH, VT, and much of western MA, as well as adjacent eastern NY. Timing and atmospheric conditions are less favorable for severe storms further east and south, but that’s not to say a few areas cannot see strong to even severe storms. The chance is just less likely in the bulk of the WHW forecast area. Now, let’s rewind several hours to now, and go forward. As I write this discussion at about 8:00 a.m. Sunday morning, a downpour is occurring outside my window here in Woburn MA, one among a cluster of them, a few containing thunder, and follow-ups to some overnight activity too. These are associated with the frontal boundary that came through on Friday as a back door cold front, and is now returning as a warm front. Where it’s not raining at any given moment, it’s overcast and there may be fog, due to the saturated air in place. So our day starts out quite dank, but as the front pushes through, the shower threat drops off for several hours, and we break the clouds and start to add more sun to the mix, making the temperature go up as the humidity remains high. So we’ll be in for a summery feeling day, and some of this will aid in the development of thunderstorms later. Starting about mid afternoon, we’ll have to watch for isolated storms reaching central MA and southwestern NH. It is from this point through early evening that the greatest chance of severe storms exists. Further east, there can be isolated to scattered pop-up showers and storms, but as previously mentioned, the severe weather threat is less. We’ll have to watch to see if any more organized clusters or small lines of storms can form, because these can create their own momentum in the form of cyclic regeneration with the help of outflow boundaries. However, these would have less rotation potential and greater straight-line wind potential. Again, these still favor areas west of I-95 and later in the day into the evening, but as we get into the evening, at least weakened forms of these can make it further east. This takes places as a trough of low pressure, in this case a pre-frontal trough (trough of low pressure ahead of a cold front) makes its approach. This feature will pass by tonight, and until it does so, we can still see some scattered to isolated showers and storms, even after the severe weather threat has diminished. Monday, the cold front will sweep through the region, and it’ll be a little colder aloft with a trough up there swinging through. While there will be less moisture to work with, there can still be and probably will be some showers and storms firing up. While I’m not looking for too much in the way of severe weather, an isolated storm or two can be capable of hail and a damaging wind gust Monday afternoon to early evening. Finally, it all departs Monday night and this leads us to a great early summer day on Tuesday as high pressure builds in with warm, dry conditions. High pressure then slips offshore and Wednesday is a very warm day with some increase in humidity. A progressive pattern brings the next frontal boundary across the region sometime Wednesday night or Thursday, based on current timing, but this system looks like it will only bring a short-lived shower and thunderstorm chance, leaning toward late Wednesday night / early Thursday right now…

TODAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and scattered showers / thunderstorms with briefly heavy rain until late morning, then breaking clouds and partial sun by midday into afternoon, with isolated showers / thunderstorms possible by mid afternoon, favoring areas west of the I-95 belt, and late-day stronger storms possible favoring north central MA / southwestern NH. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 82-89 elsewhere. Dew point rises to around 70. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH until late morning, shifting to SW and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts midday on. Damaging wind gusts can occur near any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening, with the potential for a few strong to severe storms favoring areas west of I-95 and especially west of I-495 and north of I-90. A few lingering showers and thunderstorms possible but diminishing overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. DP 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W and diminishing, but wind can be briefly strong and gusty near any storms.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly late morning on. Highs 75-82. DP starts in 60s but a slow downward trend. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, especially around any storms where wind can be more variable.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An evening shower possible. Patchy ground fog in low elevations evening, dissipating overnight. Lows 56-63. DP falls below 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. DP upper to middle 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. DP under 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, except cooler South Coast. DP rises back above 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms late evening / overnight. Lows 65-72. DP 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms int he morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs 80-87. DP falls below 60 Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

High pressure dominates the region during much of this time period, with a frontal boundary to cross somewhere mid period (estimating early July 30) when a shower / thunderstorm threat will be present. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)

Independence Day forecast period including the “Fourth of July Weekend” looks decent with a west to northwest flow and only 1 or 2 brief potential interruptions from passing disturbances / frontal boundaries in an otherwise mainly dry and seasonably warm pattern. More details to come…

Saturday June 22 2024 Forecast (8:30AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)

We’ve been fortunate with late spring weekend weather, with many nice weekend days and in a few cases entire weekends with no weather woes. This is our first weekend of astronomical summer, and might trigger a memory or two of how many of our summer weekends went in 2023. But this is merely coincidence and doesn’t actually predict anything about the weekends to come this summer. Beware – the mainstream media may try to convince you otherwise. Haha! Half-joking aside, our focus on this weekend’s weather highlights an unsettled pattern, but neither day a “wash-out”. The big ole ridge of high pressure that delivered a hot spell at mid week and started a retreat back to the west a little at the end of the week now sits in the Midwest, with our region on the edge of a quasi-ring-of-fire. The term “ring of fire” in association to weather refers to the edges of a high pressure ridge, particularly during the warm season, where disturbances and resultant showers and thunderstorms often track. We also had a back-door cold front move through the region yesterday, not only shutting down the heat at the surface, but also adding another ingredient into creating some showers and storms. We saw that yesterday as a pretty solid area of showers/storms formed, then progressed slowly eastward, but weakened as it moved into the marine air over much of our forecast area. They didn’t dissipate quickly enough to avoid bringing rain to much of the region though, but they moved out late last night leaving us with a mainly cloudy, clammy atmosphere to start the weekend. So now what? Today, the frontal boundary that moved through yesterday will hang out to our southwest, and may help trigger a few additional showers and storms in the southwestern reaches of the WHW forecast area, while a disturbance riding the ridge moves across northern New England later today before exiting via the Gulf of Maine this evening. This disturbance can help set off a cluster or two of showers and possible thunderstorms that can traverse parts of the region this afternoon and early evening. There will be somewhat limited solar heating with the extensive cloud cover in place, so I don’t think any real organized severe storms will get going, but with the disturbance present, they should not be ignored either. I’d not cancel any outdoor plans today, but keep a close eye to the sky / radar and have a plan in place should you have to dodge something. The frontal boundary to the southwest will start to lift northeastward tonight and Sunday, and while we end up on the other side of it on Sunday, we won’t return to the high heat of midweek, but it will be noticeably much warmer and continued quite humid, with more sunshine than today will offer. A trough of low pressure will be moving eastward into this warm and humid air mass during the day, and with more solar heating to work with, a more organized cluster or line (or two) of showers and storms should form to our west and move into our region later in the day or early evening. I can’t rule out isolated showers and storms ahead of this, but I do think most of the daytime will be rain-free, just muggy and very warm, but with a somewhat helpful busy southwesterly wind at least moving the air about for ventilation. So keep a watch for the late-day storms, which can be strong to locally severe. There’s even some potential for rotating storms, especially if they are not part of an organized line, with more wind shear present in the atmosphere. In addition, the unstable atmosphere lingers into the nighttime, allowing for additional development of shower/storms behind any main cluster(s) / line(s). In additional to severe weather potential (hail / strong wind) with some storms, areas that see some heavy rain training can be prone to flooding. Activity should settle down late at night / overnight / early Monday, but we still have a cold front to traverse the region during Monday, probably not passing through until sometime Monday evening. So we’ll see a renewed threat of showers and thunderstorms Monday – another unsettled day. Finally, a nice Canadian high pressure area will deliver fair weather with drier air for Tuesday, but the progressive nature of the pattern will allow that high to slide offshore, making Wednesday warmer and more humid, but with a continuation of fair weather. I hope you read all of that carefully. I might give you a pop quiz. 😉

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. A possible shower and a slight chance of a thunderstorm at any time this afternoon and early evening. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible early. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. DP 60+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible early to mid afternoon. A better chance of showers/thunderstorms west to east later in the day. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 82-89 elsewhere. DP rising to near 70. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Additional showers and thunderstorms possible. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. DP 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, diminishing, but can be briefly strong and gusty near any storms.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, favoring the afternoon and evening. Highs 75-82. DP near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with evening showers and thunderstorms, then clearing. Areas of ground fog. Lows 55-62. DP falls below 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. DP falls below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. DP under 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, except cooler South Coast. DP rises back above 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

A cold front passing through the region brings a shower and thunderstorm chance June 27, timing uncertain this far in advance. High pressure builds in with refreshing air June 28 then moves overhead then offshore during the final weekend of the month and to greet July, with a warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)

Holiday time period forecast which will have much scrutiny and importance. Large scale pattern looks like a progressive west to northwest flow with an upper high pressure ridge back in the Midwest region. This keeps us out of persistent heat but also leaves the door open for a couple rounds of passing showers/storms with disturbances moving through, so it’ll come down to timing regarding travel / summer holiday plans. And we have a long way to go before we can fine-tune those details, but there’s your early general idea. Actually looks like a pretty decent pattern overall.

Friday June 21 2024 Forecast (7:31AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 21-25)

A back-door cold front moves across the region from northeast to southwest today, shutting down the heat we’d been experiencing for the last few days. While it doesn’t bring very dry air – we’ll still be humid with a marine air delivery – it’ll be more tolerable than the combination of humidity with heat. The frontal boundary can trigger some showers and thunderstorms as today goes on, but with its movement, these will be more likely west of I-95 and south of I-90, though a few cannot be ruled out elsewhere. During the course of the weekend, the frontal boundary will hang out nearby – just to the southwest, making an attempt to push northeastward again Sunday. Both days include opportunities for convective activity in the form of showers and thunderstorms, with Saturday’s activity more limited to the region southwest of Boston, expanding to include more of the region Sunday. There will be some details to work out and a lot of radar watching to do, so while I would not outright cancel any weekend plans outside, be prepared to monitor and have a back-up plan if possible. Finally on Monday one more disturbance moving through from the west will bring additional showers and thunderstorms before we see the arrival of fair, dry weather Tuesday as high pressure arrives in its wake.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and favoring areas west and south of Boston. Highs 74-81 coast, 81-88 inland occurring by midday followed by a slow temperature fall northeast to southwest. DP 60+. Wind shifting to N and NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Lows 65-72. DP 60+. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast and far west of Boston. Highs 77-85, coolest coast. DP around 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible mainly south and west of Boston. Lows 61-68. DP around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring areas south and west of Boston, but possible anywhere, including the slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland, coolest coastal areas. DP upper 60s to near 70. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 64-71. DP 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 75-82. DP near 70. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with evening showers and thunderstorms, then clearing. Areas of ground fog. Lows 55-62. DP falls below 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. DP 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)

A quick-moving disturbance brings a brief shower / t-storm chance mid period in an otherwise mostly dry pattern with dominant high pressure. Variable temperatures, maybe a quick spike of very warm, then seasonable, then a late-period warm-up again.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)

A west to northwest flow with a high pressure ridge in the Midwest means a couple shower / t-storm chances and variable temperatures mainly near to a little above normal.

Thursday June 20 2024 Forecast (7:46AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 20-24)

Spring to Summer – but already feeling like mid summer today! Solstice occurs at 4:50 p.m. …and it’s gonna be another hot day across the region (a little cooler in direct ocean wind South Coast regions). Use caution if outside. This, of course, is due to a continuation of high pressure parked to our south and an upper level high pressure ridge along the East Coast. Locally, our dew point may come down a bit today if we get enough west wind, but that can make the air temperature a little hotter due to a down slope of the air off the hills / mountains to the west. A few records can be matched or fall today. Another thing to monitor for today are thunderstorms which can pop up air-mass style any time after noon or 1 p.m. and then we may see a more organized line sweep part of the region late afternoon or evening. This is in advance of a cold front approaching from the north. That front will pass by our area on Friday, shutting the big heat down. While the humidity will lessen, don’t expect a crispy-dry Canadian air mass. But it will be “better” nonetheless. And this will also last on Saturday with enough influence from an eastern Canadian high pressure area. As for weather, we can still see some scattered shower activity Friday with the front passing by, and Saturday less so, but favoring areas to the south and west, closer to a a slowing frontal boundary. This front will try to amble back to the north Sunday, a more humid day, with additional showers possible over more of the region, including a thunderstorm chance too. Sunday’s not a wash-out, but likely more regionally unsettled than Saturday. One more disturbance comes through from the west Monday with additional showers and thunderstorms likely.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms develop. A more organized thunderstorm line potentially from southern NH into northern and central MA late day / early evening. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-93 remainder of South Coast, 94-101 elsewhere, hottest just east of the Worcester Hills. DP around 70 may lower somewhat during the day. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, gusts around or above 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Shower/thunderstorm chance early, then isolated showers overnight. Lows 71-78, warmest urban centers. DP upper 60s to near 70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Potential for scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, favoring the I-90 belt southward. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland areas, warmest southwest of Boston. DP 60s. Wind shifting to N and NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Lows 65-72. DP falls to upper 50s. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast and far west of Boston. Highs 77-85, coolest coast. DP around 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible mainly south and west of Boston. Lows 61-68. DP around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring areas south and west of Boston, including the slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 75-82, coolest coastal areas. DP upper 60s to near 70. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 64-71. DP 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 75-82. DP near 70. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 25-29)

A large high pressure area builds in with fair, drier weather much of this period, starting with seasonable temperatures then a late-period warm up.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

A west to northwest flow with a high pressure ridge in the Midwest means a couple shower / t-storm chances and variable temperatures mainly near to a little above normal.

Wednesday June 19 2024 Forecast (7:47AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)

Two days of heat before a cold front from the north turns the dial down a few notches for Friday and the coming weekend. As previously discussed, the combination of a strong upper level ridge on the East Coast and surface high pressure to the south brings us the end-of-spring / start-of-summer blast furnace. We greet summer officially with the occurrence of the solstice at 4:50 p.m. EDT on Thursday. Thunderstorm chances are pretty small today, with just a few isolated pop-ups possible in the region from central MA’s hills to southern NH late afternoon to early evening, and the chance goes up a little bit on Thursday as we start to feel the effects of an approaching cold front from the north, with the threat that day being of isolated to scattered storms in the late afternoon and evening, favoring areas north of the Route 2 corridor, especially southern NH. A few of these can survive a little further southward at night and into early Friday. Frontal timing looks fairly early on Friday with a regionwide shift of wind to north and northeast from north to south during the morning and midday hours, preventing much of the region from having time to rise to or above 90. Additionally, a lot more clouds will hang around on Friday and there can be a few additional showers around. Canadian high pressure should be strong enough to limit Saturday’s shower threat to the South Coast and the hills to the west, with much of the region enjoying dry weather. Sunday, however, the boundary will attempt a comeback with clouds becoming more dominant, and a shower threat, but again greatest to the south and west.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms, favoring north central MA and southern NH late-day. Highs 77-84 Cape Cod, 85-92 remainder of South Coast, 93-100 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. DP middle to upper 60s, may touch 70 South Coast region. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 70-77, warmest urban centers. DP middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Evening showers and thunderstorms possible mainly southern NH and far northern MA. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-93 remainder of South Coast, 94-101 elsewhere, hottest just east of the Worcester Hills. DP may fall toward 60. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, gusts around or above 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows 72-79, warmest urban centers. DP 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Potential for scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, favoring the I-90 belt southward. Highs 75-82 coast, 82-89 inland areas, warmest southwest of Boston. DP 60s. Wind shifting to N and NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Lows 65-72. DP falls to upper 50s. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast and far west of Boston. Highs 77-85, coolest coast. DP around 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible mainly south and west of Boston. Lows 61-68. DP around 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring areas south and west of Boston. Highs 75-82, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)

Additional showers and thunderstorms possible in the region as a disturbance moves through from west to east June 24. This should be followed by a return to mainly fair and dry weather for mid period, with a possible shower as some warmth/humidity tries to return end of period. But the large scale pattern should feature less East Coast ridge, which will be back to the west with more of a west to northwest flow in our region.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

Pattern for end of June / start of July looks similar with high pressure ridge centered mainly Midwest, may nudge eastward to western Great Lakes. Variable temperatures, no long hot stretch, dry most of time, but passing disturbances bring brief shower/t-storm chances.

Tuesday June 18 2024 Forecast (7:37AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 18-22)

All on track from a blast of heat as high pressure aloft dominates the East Coast and surface high pressure to the south delivers the early season blast furnace over the next few days, as we lead up to the astronomical arrival of summer with the solstice, which occurs at 4:50 p.m. EDT on Thursday. General details of the forecast remain the same – hottest away from South Coast, moderate to high dew points but mainly staying under the oppressive threshold of 70, with a chance it drops off as a southwesterly air flow becomes more westerly on Thursday. Minimal pop up thunderstorm chances exist Wednesday and Thursday. A better chance of a few showers and storms will occur Friday as a front drops down from the north and cuts off what would have been a longer period of higher heat. You will be able to thank eastern Canadian high pressure for that. I still think this high presses far enough south for much of the region to be fairly comfortable and rain-free Saturday, though still can see showers/storms closer to the South Coast where the front will be hanging around.

TODAY: Patchy clouds for a while, then mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod, 83-90 remainder of South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere, hottest over interior valleys. DP rises into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 66-73, warmest urban centers. DP 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 77-84 Cape Cod, 85-92 remainder of South Coast, 93-100 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. DP middle to upper 60s, may touch 70 South Coast region. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 70-77, warmest urban centers. DP middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Very slight chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-93 remainder of South Coast, 94-101 elsewhere, hottest just east of the Worcester Hills. DP may fall toward 60. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, gusts around or above 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 72-79, warmest urban centers. DP 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Potential for scattered showers / thunderstorms. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere, occurring by midday before a temperature fall from north to south during midday and afternoon hours. DP 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N and NE north to south midday on.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly south of I-90. Lows 65-72. DP falls to upper 50s. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast. Highs 77-85, coolest coast. DP around 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 23-27)

Watch June 23-25 for a few opportunities of showers and thunderstorms as the frontal boundary that comes into the region late week hangs around and tries to push back north. Details to be worked out for this period still. Generally fair, warm weather is anticipated with a more westerly flow by the middle of next week after a disturbance passes by, made possible by a retrogression of the upper ridge away from the East Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

Pattern for end of June / start of July looks similar with high pressure ridge centered mainly Midwest, may nudge eastward to western Great Lakes. Variable temperatures, no long hot stretch, dry most of time, but passing disturbances bring brief shower/t-storm chances.

Monday June 17 2024 Forecast (7:49AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 17-21)

As we head through the final few days of spring and start summer this week (solstice is Thursday at 4:50 p.m. EDT), we have some intense summer heat to talk about. But before we get there, a day and part of another day of transition, after a comfortable weekend. Today we see some varying cloud cover in response to a warm front moving across the region. It is this front that opens the door to the hot weather, and as high pressure builds offshore at the surface and a strong upper level ridge dominates the East Coast, we’ll see the heat build quickly tomorrow through mid week, peaking Wednesday and Thursday. It’s when we get to the end of the week that the puzzle to solve is a cold front dropping southward from Canada, with another surface high up there representing a cooler air mass. As has been my thought process for a while, I think that front will move through the region on Friday – exact timing to be a factor in high temps and any drop off that day. As far as any other rain threats leading up to the frontal situation, there would about up to about a 10% chance of a pop up air mass thunderstorm in a few locations Wednesday and/or Thursday afternoons. Don’t count on seeing any in one particular location, but keep in mind that the chance is greater than 0%. In addition, during the hottest weather this week, the southwesterly air flow that is transporting the heat into our region will pass over ocean water and therefore the typical modifying influence in temperature will take place for the South Coast region, especially Cape Cod.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around or over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. DP approaches 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 Cape Cod, 83-90 remainder of South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere, hottest over interior valleys. DP rises into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 66-73, warmest urban centers. DP 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Slight chance of isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 77-84 Cape Cod, 85-92 remainder of South Coast, 93-100 elsewhere, hottest interior valleys. DP middle to upper 60s, may touch 70 South Coast region. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 70-77, warmest urban centers. DP middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Very slight chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 86-93 remainder of South Coast, 94-101 elsewhere, hottest just east of the Worcester Hills. DP may fall toward 60. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, gusts around or above 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 72-79, warmest urban centers. DP 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Potential for scattered showers / thunderstorms. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-93 elsewhere, occurring by midday before a temperature fall from north to south during midday and afternoon hours. DP 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N and NE north to south midday on.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 22-26)

Forecast scenario for the June 22-23 weekend is for the frontal boundary that comes through Friday to stay just south of the region on Saturday with a shower/t-storm chance well south and west of Boston, fair elsewhere, moderate humidity, and not too hot (70s coast, 80s inland), and the frontal boundary to try to make a come-back on Sunday with more clouds and potentially more of a shower threat eventually, but still not hot (70s coast, around 80 inland). We may get back into a little bit of very warm to hot weather and notable humidity during the first part of next week, but with some retrogression of large scale features, including the high pressure ridge that causes this week’s heat, this would be a far less intense spell of heat, and may come with additional showers / t-storms with a disturbance or two moving through the region from the west and northwest. Much to fine-tune.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Pattern for end of June / start of July looks the same with high pressure centered in the Midwest and a west to northwest flow here, limited heat but variable temperatures, dry most of the time but a few shower / storm chances.

Sunday June 16 2024 Forecast (8:54AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 16-20)

High pressure brings beautiful weather to our region during today with lots of sunshine, mild air, and low humidity. The high then builds offshore, and as an anomalous upper ridge of high pressure overtakes the East Coast, we’ll undergo a quick warm-up leading to a hot spell as we head into and through the middle of the coming week. Some records will be challenged. There will be some opportunity for slightly cooler sea breezes in coastal areas, especially the South Coast where the predominant wind direction will often have some ocean component to it. I do think that the upper atmosphere will be too warm and capped to support any isolated thunderstorms so for now those will be left out of the forecast. We may keep the dew points below the “oppressive” range as well during this spell, which while of limited benefit it is still of some benefit in terms of total comfort factor. Fittingly, the summer solstice occurs at 4:50 p.m. EDT on Thursday.

TODAY: Abundant sun – some high clouds. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95, coolest South Coast. Dew point breaks 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 67-74, warmest urban centers. Dewpoint 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 91-98, except cooler South Coast. Dewpoint 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 70-77, warmest urban centers. Dewpoint 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 92-99, except cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+ but may fall to upper 50s. Wind SW shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 21-25)

Watch for a cold front to slip down from the north and northeast June 21, bringing a shower/thunderstorm chance, a wind shift, and a potential cool-down with details depending on the timing of the frontal boundary. Canadian high pressure may be strong enough to bring us a fair weather and more comfortable day lacking heat and humidity on June 22 into June 23 before a the front tries to return with higher humidity and unsettled weather chances.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 26-30)

A general westerly to northwesterly air flow with high pressure ridging further west (in the Midwest / Ohio Valley). This keeps us out of persistent heat, though brief heat can occur, along with a few shower and t-storm chances in an otherwise mainly dry pattern.

Saturday June 15 2024 Forecast (8:57AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 15-19)

The next 5 days will take us on a journey from comfortably cool to hot and humid. It starts out with a northerly air flow behind yesterday’s unsettled weather, delivering a dry and cool air mass directly out of Canada. A gusty breeze today will settle down later, and we’ll see a sun/cloud mix, but with a tendency for fewer clouds as we head into late-day after some leftover mid level cloud patches this morning and some diurnal cumulus development peaking during the first half of the afternoon. Tonight will be a clear and cool one as high pressure drifts into the region. There are some interior lower elevations that can drop into the upper 40s with the very dry air in place and light wind / calm conditions. Sunday is going to be a candidate for a “top ten” day by typical standards, with abundant sun, maybe filtered at times by some high clouds, not too much wind, and after the chilly start a comfortable midday and afternoon with dry air. Then we undergo a change from Monday to Wednesday a strong upper level high pressure ridge builds on the East Coast and surface high pressure parks itself southeast of New England. As it warms at upper levels initially we will see some varying amounts of high and perhaps some mid level cloudiness Monday and part of Tuesday, but I’m not expecting any precipitation from that. During this time we’ll “climb the temperature stairs” and by Wednesday we’ll be fully immersed in the heat with higher humidity as well. With a southwesterly air flow heading into the hot spell, the South Coast will see modified air and not be quite as hot as areas away from there. Onto the specific forecast…

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78, coolest north-facing and east-facing shores. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late in the day.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-54, coolest interior valleys. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine but some high cloud streaming across the sky as well. Highs 73-80 but cooling back along the coast midday on. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable, mostly S to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point breaks 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 66-73, warmest urban centers. Dewpoint 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 88-95, except cooler South Coast. Dewpoint 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 20-24)

Hot, humid weather continues regionwide on the day of the summer solstice (4:50 p.m. EDT) June 20 with fair weather. June 21 watching for a back-door cold front to slip down from the north and northeast as surface high pressure scoots across eastern Canada and the upper level ridge starts a retrogression into the interior eastern US. While low confidence, expecting that eastern Canadian high to potentially be strong enough to give our region fair and relatively cooler weather for most of the June 22-23 weekend before a disturbance brings a rain chance later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 25-29)

A general westerly to northwesterly air flow with high pressure ridging further west (in the Midwest / Ohio Valley). This keeps us out of persistent heat, though brief heat can occur, along with a few shower and t-storm chances in an otherwise mainly dry pattern.

Friday June 14 2024 Forecast (7:35AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 14-18)

A cold front moves into the region today with a warm, more humid air mass in place. But sooner arrival of cloudiness will limit heating, and an earlier arrival of a first shower area (from upstream storms last night) will rob the atmosphere of some of its potential instability, lessening the threat of stronger storms in much of our region as we go through the afternoon. The greatest threat remains in areas west of I-495 / northwest of I-84, where some storms can produce damaging wind gusts, but incidents like this should be isolated, and not on a larger scale. As showers and storms approach the coastal plain, they will weaken. The front itself will be a little slow to move through our area this evening and tonight, with a little ripple of low pressure on it, so a more widespread shower area is anticipated, but timing suggests that this will exit as the low pressure waves is beyond the region and pulls the front more quickly offshore before dawn Saturday… The weekend is going to be cooler and drier. With the exception of the chance of a brief additional pop up shower first thing Saturday morning in eastern areas as a final low pressure trough moves through, expect dry weather with a sun/cloud mix and breezy conditions during Saturday, then more abundant sun and more tranquil weather on Sunday as high pressure builds over the region. This high will move offshore early next week when we keep mostly fair weather but undergo a warm-up. Some cloudiness will likely visit the region sometime Monday and/or Tuesday as it also warms up aloft as high pressure ridging begins to build on the East Coast…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely, but greatest chance of heavier showers and stronger thunderstorms will be west and north of the coastal plain. Highs 73-80 South Coast, 81-88 elsewhere. Dew point in 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, can be variable and gusty near storms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Evening showers and embedded thunderstorms. Overnight showers, ending toward dawn. Areas of ground fog. Lows 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, still can be briefly stronger and gusty near any storms early evening, becoming N 5-15 MPH toward dawn.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. An early to mid morning shower possible NH Seacoast and eastern MA. Highs 71-78, coolest north-facing and east-facing shores. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing late in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 47-54, coolest interior valleys. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80 but cooling back along the coast midday on. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 19-23)

Signal for fair, hot weather with high pressure aloft on East Coast and high pressure at the surface south of New England during the middle of next week. High pressure in eastern Canada potentially under-forecast by medium range guidance may push a frontal boundary southward into our region later in the period, cutting off the heat and potentially bringing some showers/thunderstorms, at least initially. The summer solstice occurs on June 20 at 4:50 p.m. EDT.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 24-28)

Westerly flow and weak trough brings unsettled weather early period, then briefly drier/cooler northwest flow before high pressure rebuilds with warm/dry weather later in the period. This is not high confidence but based on most reliable medium range ensemble guidance.

Thursday June 13 2024 Forecast (7:49AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)

High pressure provides a sunny and warmer day today but dew points will remain generally in the comfortable range (in the 50s but some lower 60s around the South Coast). A fair and mild night tonight with the 60+ dew point air creeping northward across the region. This sets us up for a warm and humid Friday as a cold front approaches. The timing of this front looks late enough that the bigger thunderstorm threat will remain west of the I-495 belt and occur later in the day, but it should be watched closely. Otherwise, we’ll have more clouds and an increased chance of showers. The frontal boundary crosses the region Friday night and exits early Saturday. Our weekend will feature comfortable air with generally dry weather. I can’t rule out a pop-up instability shower on Saturday mainly in the coastal plain east of I-95 through early or mid afternoon, otherwise it looks like a dry weekend. It’ll be breezy Saturday with a sun/cloud mix, and sunnier Sunday with less wind. Some clouds may roll in on Monday as it warms aloft but high pressure at the surface will keep our weather fair and dry.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except partly to mostly cloudy South Coast. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and/or evening showers/thunderstorms likely, especially north and west of Boston. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Evening showers/thunderstorms likely, especially Boston area southward. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A few pop up showers possible I-95 region eastward midday to mid afternoon. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 47-54, coolest interior valleys. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80 but cooling back along the coast midday on. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 18-22)

An upper level high pressure ridge builds on the East Coast. Surface high pressure to the south allows us to get warm to hot June 18-20, but that may be cut off by surface high pressure in eastern Canada sending a front down from the north later next week. It remains to be seen if any showers and thunderstorms would be involved with that potential change. The summer solstice occurs on June 20 at 4:50 p.m. EDT.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 23-27)

Large scale pattern shows retrogression of high pressure from the East to the Midwest and a more northwesterly air flow here. This is a mostly dry pattern, variable temperatures, with limited shower / t-storm chances.

Wednesday June 12 2024 Forecast (7:45AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)

The back side of upper level low pressure and boundaries created by sea breezes will be the trigger for a few afternoon and evening showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm in the region today, otherwise expect a mainly fair and comfortable day with a sun/cloud mix. Any showers go “poof” by tonight and as high pressure builds offshore, the dew point starts to creep up. This can lead to some ground fog patches overnight, but those will quickly dissipate in the rising sun Thursday, which will be a bright and warmer day as a southwesterly wind gets going. This, of course, is a direct ocean breeze for the South Coast, so it will be cooler there in comparison to the remainder of the region. High pressure remains offshore Friday which ends up a very warm to hot, more humid day, ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will be the focus for a band of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe. These likely form northwest of the WHW forecast area Friday afternoon, and based on the current expecting timing of the front’s approach and passage, the greatest chance of seeing downpours, gusty wind, and potential severe weather will be north and west of Boston late afternoon to early evening, with a weakening version of these heading southeastward later in the evening. I’ll monitor this and tweak the timing if needed, as well as adding more detail as we get closer to the event. Behind the front, high pressure builds toward the region Saturday and over the region Sunday. This will bring fair, pleasant weather. A gusty breeze will greet us on Saturday but it will settle down later, and Sunday will be more tranquil. It looks like a fabulous mid June weekend upcoming!

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon to early evening showers and potential thunderstorms around. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind variable, becoming mostly SE to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening, then clearing. Lows 56-63. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear except partly to mostly cloudy South Coast. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and/or evening showers/thunderstorms likely, especially north and west of Boston. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Evening showers/thunderstorms likely, especially Boston area southward. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 47-54, coolest interior valleys. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80 but cooling back along the coast midday on. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 17-21)

A warm front may bring more clouds and perhaps some shower activity at some point June 17-18 as a trend toward a warm-up and increased humidity begins. Middle of next week looks hotter and more humid, at least briefly, with high pressure off the Atlantic Coast. We’ll have to watch another bubble of high pressure in eastern Canada which may help push a cold front southward, cutting off our hot weather sooner.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 22-26)

Large scale pattern indicates a high pressure ridge retrograding from the Midwest to the Plains and a northwesterly air flow here. This is a mostly dry pattern, variable temperatures, but early in the period coming out of a hotter spell we may be vulnerable to heavier showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday June 11 2024 Forecast (7:41AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 11-15)

A broad area of upper level low pressure continues to impact the weather today with air on the cooler side of normal and a few pop up showers possible. This exits tonight and Wednesday and high pressure begins to build in, but there can be just enough atmospheric instability to pop a shower or two Wednesday afternoon especially along a sea breeze boundary that will be fairly pronounced, otherwise most areas are dry for the day. Ahead of the summer solstice, a couple very warm to hot days are coming up as high pressure builds aloft along the East Coast and a surface high slides offshore. The humidity will come up as well but slowly, not really being noticed until Friday. That’s also the day that a cold front will be moving into the region from the northwest. I still have to fine-tune the timing of this front. That will help determine how hot the day is and how strong the showers and thunderstorms that accompany it will become. For now, a broad 12 hour window of noon to midnight is in place for the shower and storm potential, first to the west, and moving eastward with time. In reality, any one location will probably only be under the gun for these for a few hours in total. This front moves offshore later Friday night and we’ll have a cooler, breezy, dry day for Saturday to start the weekend.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a pop-up shower. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 54-61. Wind SE to variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind variable, becoming mostly SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening, then clearing. Lows 56-63. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear except partly to mostly cloudy South Coast. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and/or evening showers/thunderstorms likely. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Evening showers/thunderstorms likely. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may be variable and gusty around any storms, shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 16-20)

Fair weather continues through the remainder of the weekend June 16. Unsettled weather is possible at some point during June 17 and/or 18 as a warm front moves through, then some hotter weather is possible by the middle of next week. The summer solstice occurs on June 20.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 21-25)

Large scale pattern indicates a high pressure ridge retrograding from the Midwest to the Plains and a northwesterly air flow here. This is a mostly dry pattern, variable temperatures, but early in the period coming out of a hotter spell we may be vulnerable to heavier showers and thunderstorms.

Monday June 10 2024 Forecast (7:49AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 10-14)

As we enter mid June, we find ourselves with a stretch of pretty nice weather, despite an upper low and a cold front in this 5-day forecast. Starting out the week, we have upper level low pressure still spinning around across the US Northeast and adjacent southeastern Canada. Gradually, this system weakens and drifts eastward, but will still have an impact on our weather in terms of keeping temperatures from being too warm, and also providing enough instability for the possibility of pop-up showers, triggered by daytime heating, both today and Tuesday. Coverage will be isolated to scattered at best though, and many areas will stay dry. High pressure builds in with “top 10 day” kind of weather on Wednesday – mild to warm, low humidity, abundant sun, fairly light wind. Any coastal areas can be a little cooler the next 3 days with sea breeze development. Thursday, high pressure ridging overtakes the East Coast and surface high pressure builds offshore, providing us with lots of sun and a warm-up, with a slight up-tick in the humidity that won’t be all that noticeable. It will become more noticeable on Friday as dew points reach the 60s regionwide as we’ll have a stronger southwesterly air flow ahead of an approaching cold front. The southwest winds we’ll see Thursday and Friday are of course a direct ocean breeze for the South Coast and Cape Cod, which will have accordingly modified temperatures – cooler than other areas in our region. Friday’s weather will start with sun, though there can be some low level clouds coming in from the southwest off the waters south of New England, limiting the sun closer to the South Coast. If the air flow is more southerly, these clouds can be more extensive and limit the temperature rise, but I don’t think this is going to be the case. In addition, the approach and arrival of a cold front will bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms sometime Friday afternoon or evening, and the timing of this front’s arrival will determine both the ability to heat up, as well as the strength of any thunderstorms. This is something I’ll focus on as we go through the week.

TODAY: Abundant sun to start. An area of high clouds moves across the northern sky this morning to early afternoon. Diurnal clouds pop up late morning through afternoon, with a few isolated showers possible mainly mid afternoon to early evening. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH, but immediate coastal areas can see a couple hours of a sea breeze.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. A few fog patches interior valleys. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun to start, then a sun/cloud mix except may stay sunnier in coastal areas. Isolated afternoon showers possible. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. A few fog patches may form again interior lower elevations. Lows 54-61. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind variable, becoming mostly SE to S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear except partly to mostly cloudy South Coast. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and/or evening showers/thunderstorms likely. Highs 75-82 South Coast, 83-90 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 15-19)

June 15-16 weekend will be fair, seasonable, and dry with high pressure in control. The high slips offshore early to middle portion of next week with some clouds and maybe some showers leading warmer air back into the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 20-24)

The Summer Solstice occurs on June 20. The large scale pattern is expected to feature high pressure at upper levels in the Midwest and Ohio Valley retrograding toward the Plains. This pattern is usually a warm one for us, but more significant heat stays to the west or only visits briefly, with a couple disturbances offering opportunities for passing showers and thunderstorms in an overall drier pattern.

Sunday June 9 2024 Forecast (8:32AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 9-13)

A potent but fast-moving disturbance will cause an episode of unsettled weather today, but not for the entire day. The orientation of the rainfall means that areas north of the Route 2 corridor see rain the longest, because it starts earlier. The further south you go, the shorter-duration the rainfall will be. Across the region it take the form of widespread showers with isolated embedded thunder possible. It will end fairly rapidly from west to east midday and early afternoon, clearing western portions of the WHW forecast area by the end of the morning, central portions by around noon, I-95 belt / Cape Ann by about 1 p.m., and the MA South Shore / South Coast by about 2 p.m., followed by intervals of sun for the remainder of the day. Although there’s a slight chance of an isolated follow-up shower in a few areas, most locations will be rain-free after the initial batch moves through. Upper level low pressure weakens and slides eastward across the region from the eastern Great Lakes to the Atlantic waters just to our east. During this transit, daytime heating initiates the potential for spot showers each afternoon Monday and Tuesday, but probably not by Wednesday as the system will be far enough east by then. Temperatures will be fairly close to seasonal values during this time, with coastal areas vulnerable to sea breezes each day as we’ll have a fairly weak surface pressure field. Thursday, a high pressure ridge arrives on the East Coast and surface high pressure slides offshore, opening the door to our next preview of summer, at which time we’ll see it quite warm with an increase in humidity as well.

TODAY: Generally cloudy through midday with a few hours of rain northern MA / southern NH and up to a couple hours of showers with the possibility of an embedded thunderstorm in areas to the south, ending west to east between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m., followed by clouds and intervals of sun and only a slight chance of an isolated follow-up shower in a few locations. Highs 69-76. Wind variable under 10 MPH morning, W up to 10 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 72-79. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 54-61. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 68-75 coast, 75-82 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88 except 73-80 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 14-18)

Very warm and somewhat humid on June 14 but an approaching cold front brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms by late day or evening from to east. This should progress through setting up a fair weather, seasonably warm, but lower humidity weekend June 15-16. Later in the period some clouds / humidity / shower chances return, but too far into the future for details.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 19-23)

The Summer Solstice occurs on June 20. The large scale pattern (with the help of most trusted medium range guidance) presents potentials for putting a ridge of high pressure at upper levels in the Midwest with our region on the edge of it, but some surface high pressure off the East Coast. Heading into early summer, this pattern usually allows some shots of heat here, but also interruptions from passing fronts / disturbances in a northwesterly flow. It’s often drier than it is wetter, but when you do see disturbances, you can have rounds of heavier thunderstorms. We’ll have to watch for these things as we head into this period, and fine-tune with time.

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