DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

It was another car-window-scraping morning for many as high pressure sitting overhead created calm wind and a slight increase in moisture from the Atlantic and provided what was needed for frost to form. Today is a “warm advection” day. You’ll notice this in 2 ways. The first is that it will be a few to several degrees milder today than yesterday. The other way you’ll see it depends on where you live. If you’re in the remote southwestern suburbs of Boston, in RI, eastern CT, and central MA to far southwestern NH, you’ve already seen it in the form of an advancing deck of stratus clouds. If you are further east and northeast of these locations, you may be able to see the approach of that cloud deck (unless you’re on Cape Ann MA or up along the NH Seacoast as of 7:30 a.m. in which case you’re too far away and the deck is below your horizon still. Anyway this cloud deck marks the warming of air and increased mositure at low levels. It’ll make an advance east northeastward and limit the sun for most of the region eventually, but will also develop breaks and allow occasional sun to make a come-back as the afternoon goes on too. Overall, not a bad day today for now late November! But what about this weekend? Well, later today a cold front passes by without much fanfare (rain/snow shower stay up over northern New England and I can remove the chance I had north of I-90 later today from the short-term forecast. The front settles just to the south tonight and a wave of low pressure ripples along it, bringing a quick shot of light rainfall to the South Coast region early Saturday before it heads out to sea, leaving the region generally dry, a little more breezy, and slightly cooler. Sunday’s weather will feature more of a sun / cloud combo as a disturbance moves across the region, but at this time I do not expect it to generate any precipitation for our area. As we are now in a transitional pattern, the timing of systems has been difficult to pin down beyond even a couple days in advance. At this point, I expect that an area of high pressure will provide fair weather for our region Monday, but an approaching trough from the west will send low pressure into the Great Lakes Tuesday – its extending warm front bringing clouds and eventually wet weather chances back to us later that day.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind SW increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain pre-dawn South Coast to possibly MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy start then increasing sun but additional passing clouds northwest to southeast. Highs 45-52. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Clouding over. Chance of rain late, especially western areas. Highs 43-50. Wind calm then SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Still a few details to work out for the day-before-Thanksgiving (26th) and Thanksgiving Day (27th) forecasts. With a larger low tracking through the Great Lakes then into southeastern Canada we still have a trough and cold front to move by our region – early Wednesday and sometime later Wednesday to very early Thursday when there are rain shower threats with milder air in place. After that, the trend is drier and colder as there is a larger reservoir of cold air to the west and north to pull from. May have to watch for a minor disturbance to bring a little light snow or flurries to the region sometime Thanksgiving Weekend, but more speculation than anything higher confidence at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)

There’s still a lot of uncertainty here, driven by the still to-be-determined details of a change in the large scale weather pattern. Expecting a colder overall regime, but we’ll be near the border of what looks like a stretched-out polar vortex and lingering milder air to the southeast as a ridge of high pressure tries to hang on in the southeastern US and offshore Atlantic waters. Progressive disturbances can bring precipitation but the type is determined by what air mass is dominant at the time and what transitions are ongoing. So there is a lot to investigate before coming up with a more confident outlook for the early days of December. General leaning: Temps near to below normal, precipitation near normal.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

After a cold overnight with fairly calm winds, we will have a chilly but tranquil day today as a weak area of high pressure sits nearby. A subtle low level flow from the Atlantic has provided enough moisture for some scattered to broken stratus, while a short wave trough at upper levels moving by from west to east has sent a swath of high clouds across the sky. This will keep the sun limited for several hours during today, but eventually we’ll see more of it before it sinks and makes its way to the horizon before 4:20 p.m. A cold front will sweep through the region late Friday, parented by low pressure moving down the St. Lawrence Valley. This front lacks moisture initially, so any rain shower chance timed for Friday evening is rather low. Once it goes by, it becomes quasi-stationary just south of our area and a quick-moving low pressure wave rides along it, but the bulk of the rainfall generated by it will pass to our south in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, getting far enough north to bring a couple hours of rain to the South Coast and maybe a brief shot of it as far north as the MA South Shore, though currently I’m leaning drier there. Behind this comes an increasing northwesterly breeze and dry weather for the balance of the day Saturday as the low pressure wave strengthens upon departure and high pressure heads are way from the west. The high center slips just south of our region Sunday which will be a fair and seasonably cool day. Monday’s weather looks mainly dry but some clouds move through with a weak trough in a westerly air flow.

TODAY: Lots of clouds with limited sun. Highs 47-54. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible mainly north of I-90. A period of rain pre-dawn South Coast to possibly MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Limited sun early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

A low pressure area brings a rain chance (maybe brief mix to the north) later November 25 into November 26 based on current expecting timing, which is a bit faster than yesterday’s expectations. Guidance continues to be wildly inconsistent for the Thanksgiving / Black Friday / into the weekend time frame. There may be another low to watch, favoring the day after Thanksgiving, but highly uncertain.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

A more significant shot of cold air is possible to end November, and this is associated with the much-talked-about PV disruption. What remains to be seen is if the initial shot of cold is quick-passing or has a little more staying power. The first few days of December are going to be tough to call, but initially I lean chilly to seasonable and mainly dry but having to watch for at least one progressive disturbance.

COMMENTARY

You may have heard many things on social media the last few days ranging from “sneaky snow for today” based on someone grabbing one HRRR model run that was poorly initialized, or getting caught up in the hype of a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event that was “supposed to flip our pattern to full on winter with relentless cold and snow” but these are words of hype-masters and wish-casters who don’t really do this for the reason of actually informing the followers, but instead garnering clicks and shares, and/or getting the thrill of being “the one to break the news” even if it’s far-fetched. That said, there is an ongoing event that disrupts the Polar Vortex, which while not a frequent occurrence is also not something that would be a surprise, and also does not guarantee any single area sees an abundance of any specific kind of weather either – at least until we get a chance to properly scientifically examine the evolution of the event and the pattern that results, the details of it, and the duration of it. As a forecaster, that’s something I’ll be doing in proper timing. In other words, I’m not going to tell you that we have a super high chance of the snowiest December in years because I simply don’t know about that yet. We just passed the half way point of November. And while “meteorlogical winter” is just under 2 weeks from its start, actual winter is still over a month away from arriving. We’re in late autumn, not winter, right now. One event, one pattern change, one thing at a time. Looking ahead is perfectly fine – that’s why it’s called “forecasting”, but apply the science that error increases as time beyond the initial does. You’ll do better. If the consumer realizes this is a fact of the science of meteorology, they’ll do better too.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

The last few days featured a lot of wind and chilly air. Today, we still have chilly air, but a much more tranquil day as a small area of high pressure has built over our region and relaxed the lower atmosphere – i.e., taken away the pressure gradient that was present between the approach of this high pressure area and the very slow departure of an expansive area of low pressure spinning about in Atlantic Canada. You will notice today that we will have a veil of high cloudiness moving across the southern sky, even some mid level clouds underneath the higher deck especially closer to the South Coast, limiting the sun even more than just the filtering the higher clouds do to it further north. This is from a small low pressure system being shunted just south of our region from what remains of the blocking pattern that was in place for a while. A high pressure area that had been parked over Greenland now drifts eastward on a journey toward northwestern Europe and this relaxes the block and opens the door for a storm track that moves through the Great Lakes into eastern Canada more easily. This more progressive pattern means several upcoming changes to our weather and things to keep track of as we head through the rest of this week (and next week – Thanksgiving Week – which I’ll talk about in the next section). We’ll keep fair weather Thursday as high pressure hangs on, although an upper disturbance passing by to our south will again produce some cloudiness in the region, limiting the sunshine. The next thing I’ve been watching is how the late-week unsettled weather threat was going to play out. After seeing a variety of model solutions and watching trends here, how I think it plays out is that low pressure travels through the Great Lakes then down the St. Lawrence Valley late Friday and Friday night, dragging its cold front across our region. Milder air ahead of this system means that any showers that are triggered by the front would be in the form of rain. Additionally, as the front passes, a weak wave of low pressure will get going on it and pass just to our south, and this can toss a short-duration shield of light rainfall into the South Coast region, maybe up as far north as the MA South Shore in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday. The quick movement of this system means that any wet weather threat is gone by about sunrise Saturday, and other than a deck of clouds “delaying sunrise” aka making the sun not visible for a while as it rises, it looks like a dry day. We will see it turn a bit cooler than Friday along with an increasing breeze as the day goes on, but not as windy or cold as the days early this week were. A bubble of high pressure will scoot just south of us on Sunday, keeping our weather fair and seasonably cool for late November. If you like to get a jump on decorating outside for the holidays, this coming weekend looks ideal for doing just that.

TODAY: Sunshine will be brightest in southern NH / northern MA, filtered to dimmed further to the south by some high and patchy middle cloudiness. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH diminishing and becoming variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Clouds limit the sun. Highs 47-54. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A rain shower possible mainly north of I-90. A period of rain pre-dawn South Coast to possibly MA South Shore. Lows 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY: Limited sun early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

There are potential disturbances to bring at least marginally unsettled weather about every other day during Thanksgiving Week (holiday is November 27). Watching November 24, 26, 28 for best unsettled weather chances, with some up and down temperatures (averaging near to slightly above normal for the period) with the quick-changes as well. Deterministic details are impossible this far in advance with this type of pattern. Obviously much fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

A more significant shot of cold air is possible to end November – timing and details are TBD. Leaning chilly/dry for the start of December but with low confidence. Medium range guidance shows a comical variety of outcomes here, so this is just based on my overall feel of the larger scale set-up I think we will have at the time.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Blocking relaxes over the next few days. As mentioned on yesterday’s discussion, we keep the blustery chilly weather today between high pressure to the west and a large storm system in Atlantic Canada, before high pressure builds in with more tranquil conditions Wednesday and Thursday. During later Wednesday and early Thursday, a smaller low pressure area will slide out just south of New England, throwing some of its high and mid level cloudiness into our sky, but its precipitation remaining south of the area. Friday, another low will head through the Great Lakes and down the St. Lawrence Valley, and its cold front can bring us some rain showers at some point during that day – timing to be fine-tuned. This system will push offshore with it now looking more likely that Saturday will be dry with a brisk northwesterly breeze.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts around 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30 except 28-35 coastal areas and urban centers. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun becomes filtered by high clouds at times. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH diminishing and becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Clouds limit the sun. Highs 47-54. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Guidance remains somewhat wishy-washy on deterministic details which are harder to determine out this far anyway. Eyeing November 24 for a potential wet weather event. Other systems to watch: November 26 but should pass south. At the moment, timing leads me to lean toward dry weather for Thanksgiving Day.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

Same mode of thinking. We watch for a larger intrusion of cold air into the US at some point around the end of Thanksgiving Weekend into the first couple days of December, but with a lot of uncertainty as to timing and where the thrust of the cold would be. In our region, I expect a low pressure area to track through the Great Lakes early in the period and sweep a strong cold front through here with at least an initial shot of colder air behind it. After that the leaning is for a seasonable to chilly but dry pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

The Greenland Block that has been the main driver of our weather pattern lately is going to dissolve this week, but it won’t happen all at once. It remains strong enough to hold in place a gusty breeze and chilly weather between low pressure in southeastern Canada and an area of high pressure approaching from the west through Tuesday. It gives way a bit more by midweek, but at that time we’ll have high pressure building right over our region, which will shunt a small storm system south of the region – out to sea. During Thursday and Friday, the high pressure area that sat near Greenland will finally drift eastward across the far northern Atlantic and open up the avenue for the next low pressure area to cut through the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada. This will happen on Friday, when we have our next chance of wet weather in the form of rain showers, with temperatures a bit milder than they will be early in the week due to an influx of Pacific air moving across the northern US and arriving here. Regarding the Friday wet weather threat, there has been some disagreement among the various computer models as to just how much rain will take place. At the present time, I am leaning toward a fairly light and short-lived event due to the ability for low pressure to move more quickly along a newly configured jet stream, and not much ability to pick up moisture from the south on its journey. It being several days away, I’ll watch trends here for both precipitation amounts and timing and update through the week.

TODAY: A sun/cloud mix with a slight chance of a brief passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH, strongest over Cape Cod and higher elevation locations.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 25-32, except 30-37 Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusting around 20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts around 25 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 23-30 except 28-35 coastal areas and urban centers. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH diminishing and becoming variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 21-28 interior valleys to 25-32 elsewhere. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: A sun/cloud mix. Highs 47-54. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 32-39. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

During this period we have a Pacific flow pattern without blocking. What I expect is that a follow-up low pressure on the front that goes by the day before will pass south of our region to start the weekend on November 22, so a dry, breezy, and seasonable outlook for that day, with fair weather into Sunday as well as a weak area of high pressure moves over the region. With only moderate confidence at best I forecast the next low pressure to ride our way from the west southwest about November 24 with a milder pattern in place, so a rain chance for that time. Behind that system should come a return to drier and slightly cooler weather toward the middle of next week during the busy pre-Thanksgiving travel period, which if correct would be good news for this area.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

This period of time, starting with Thanksgiving Day on November 27 and leading up to when we flip the calendar from November to December, is rather tricky. No doubt you’ve heard chatter on social media and some news outlets about a potential pattern change to allow colder air to spill into the country as the polar vortex undergoes a disruption. These disruptions are quite hard to pin down for both timing and just how the break-down will configure itself – troughs vs. ridges, quasi-stationary vs. progressive pattern. This pattern shift may begin to take place during this period, but may be slower than a lot of guidance suggests, so for the time-being I will continue to forecast a storm track into the Great Lakes, with one such system doing just that at some point during this period, with milder weather ahead of it and a cooler shot of air behind it. No other detail is possible at this time, but it’s something I’ll track closely as we head into late November.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Low pressure accelerates into Atlantic Canada today, intensifying and expanding its circulation. After a round of beneficial rain – that started as sleet in some areas and included thunder in some areas too – we’ll dry out today with increasing wind. It’ll be relatively mild at first, but a colder air mass arriving behind the departing storm system will cause the temperature to fall starting this afternoon, and while we remain in a brisk west to northwest air flow through Tuesday we’ll experience below normal temperatures, but with generally dry weather (only the risk of a brief passing rain shower this afternoon and snow flurry tonight and/or Monday). By Wednesday, high pressure builds in for more tranquil weather conditions. While this is occurring, what’s left of the Greenland Blocking pattern will send one more disturbance to our south and allow high pressure to remain in place through Thursday with continued fair weather.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / intervals of sun. Slight chance of a quick-passing rain shower. Highs 50-57. Wind shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts 25-35 MPH, strongest over higher elevations.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a brief passing snow flurry. Lows 28-35. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a brief passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28 except 28-35 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25 inland low elevations, 25-32 elsewhere. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Greenland block is gone and the storm track shifts into one that takes low pressure areas into the Great Lakes, the first of which will do so at the beginning of the period bringing us unsettled weather late next week. Still have to work out timing for a rain threat on November 21 and if there will be any follow-up unsettled weather over the weekend of November 22-23, or if we see 2 more distinctive systems November 21 & 24. Either scenario is possible. I’ll watch trends on this and fine-tune this forecast. Temperatures for this period while typically variable should average slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Thanksgiving is November 27. The weather pattern from midweek Thanksgiving week through the holiday weekend will be similar with a leaning to milder than average for the period overall, and 1 or 2 threats of unsettled weather depending on timing of weather systems. Much more to come soon!

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

Half-way through November and currently we’re in a fast-flow pattern that’s been bringing frequent disturbances from the west and northwest, but none of them very big precipitation producers. They have served to pull in a series of chilly air masses from Canada though, and this pattern rolls on through this weekend into the first half of next week. The next low pressure area will make a fast run through the region tonight, with a primary low passing just to our north, its warm front extending ahead of it to give us a fairly short-lived period of wet weather tonight, but a good punch of mid level instability spells the chance of embedded thunderstorms with the rain. The trailing cold front brings a chance of a final rain shower around sunrise on Sunday as the low begins to redevelop near the coast of Maine. This redevelopment will become a more intense storm as it pulls away into Atlantic Canada from Sunday into the early part of the week, bringing windy conditions back to our region and, after a relatively milder Sunday, below normal temperatures after that. By Wednesday, winds diminish and it becomes more tranquil with high pressure building in.

TODAY: Brightest uninterrupted sunshine this morning before clouds increase during the afternoon. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable and diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. A period of rain mid evening to overnight, may start as sleet in some locations. Chance of embedded thunderstorms. Lows 33-40 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early-day clouds with a quick rain shower possible, then sunshine and passing clouds with a quick rain shower possible. Highs 50-57. Wind S shifting to W increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a brief snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28 except 28-35 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25 inland low elevations, 25-32 elsewhere. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

Storm track shifts to send a low pressure into the Great Lakes with possible redevelopment closer to New England late next week – details still to be determined. Temperatures moderate to slightly above normal for a few days before cooling slightly at mid period. We may hear from the next low pressure area as early as the end of the period, but not sure on that timing yet.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

This time period is now 2 days before Thanksgiving, the holiday itself, and the 2 days after, and is very important for travel, holiday activities, etc. As of now, the pattern still looks milder, but not completely dry. Timing and magnitude of systems and impact on our area is uncertain this far out, but the general storm track is still into the Great Lakes.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

The fast-flow pattern continues. Today we’re still in a brisk northwesterly air flow behind the latest disturbance which went through yesterday. A cold pool of air aloft will continue to promote some cloud development today but it will be less extensive than yesterday, however still able to produce a brief passing light shower of rain or mix – though the extreme majority of the region will just have a dry day. High pressure builds in tonight into Saturday – a northward extension of a high centered to our south, and also sliding offshore as the day goes on. The next low pressure system charges our way via the Great Lakes and its warm front spreads a shield of high clouds across our sky as early as midday Saturday, and the day will end with a thickening overcast. The warm front will produce a period of precipitation – mainly rain, but can start as a brief mix in parts of southern NH – during Saturday evening which exits pre-dawn Sunday. The cold front can cause one more rain shower to move through during early to mid morning Sunday, and as that passes offshore and its parent low intensifies upon departure, we’ll see the wind make a come-back during Sunday with just the chance of a quick passing rain/mix shower, otherwise dry weather returns. While Sunday’s temperature is seasonably cool, additional cold advection will drive a colder than normal chill into the area for Monday, along with additional gusty wind making it feel even colder. Monday looks dry in general, but the type of day we have to watch for an isolated snow flurry from moisture that makes it over the hills / mountains to our west from the Great Lakes region. High pressure builds toward the region Tuesday while low pressure still spins in Atlantic Canada, so we’ll continue chilly and breezy that day with fair weather.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a passing shower of rain/mix. Highs 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. A period of rain, may begin as a brief period of sleet. Slight chance of a thunderstorm especially western areas. Lows 33-40 early, then rising slightly. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy until mid morning with passing rain showers. A sun/cloud mix thereafter with only a slight chance of a passing rain/mix shower. Highs 43-50. Wind W to NW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A brief snow flurry possible early. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill can fall below 20.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a brief snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

Storm track shifts to send a low pressure into the Great Lakes with possible redevelopment closer to New England late next week – details TBA. Temperatures start the period below normal then trend milder before an end-of-period chill-down.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

This outlook goes through “Black Friday” and this important travel and Thanksgiving holiday period is one of the most scrutinized for weather of the entire year. Trends / indications still for a Great Lakes storm track. One or two systems need to be watched for potential weather impact here but neither look major this far in advance. Temperature trend is to a little above normal for this period overall, but some variability day-to-day.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Chilly northwest to north air flow today and tomorrow with colder air aloft triggering daily clouds, more today than tomorrow, including the chance of a sprinkle of rain, mix, or snow each day, higher chance today. High pressure brings fair, tranquil weather Saturday. Quickly in comes the next small low pressure area via the Great Lakes at night, with overnight and early Sunday morning rain due to milder air aloft, but may begin quickly enough for some mixed snow/rain in southern NH, but it ends quickly Sunday morning as low pressure exits. Like several other recent departing systems, this one too will rapidly intensify upon departing, leading to windy weather and a chill-down later Sunday through Monday, with the return of dry weather other than once again the chance of a passing brief rain or snow shower.

TODAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing rain/mix/snow shower possible. Highs Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of a passing sprinkle/mix/flurry. Highs 44-51. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. A period of rain – some mix possible southern NH briefly. Lows 35-42 early, then rising slightly. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy very early with rain ending, then a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 43-50. Wind W to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Variably cloudy. A passing light rain/snow shower possible. Lows 32-39. Highs 46-53. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Blocking pattern stays in place but shifts orientation eastward slightly during this period. We’ll watch for the next low pressure system mid period heading for the Great Lakes with a possibility to redevelop closer to New England. It remains to be seen how much impact this system will have on our region.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

No changes to this part of the outlook with expected main storm track into Great Lakes and a bit milder pattern for our region. But any storms do need to be watched for redevelopment further south and east depending on the degree of blocking in place. This is the period leading up to and including Thanksgiving (November 27). Most likely day for storm impact is November 24, but when you see the word “storm” don’t think necessarily “big event” – just something to keep an eye on this far out and monitor trends.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

The Greenland Block pattern continues. A fairly weak, fast-moving disturbance crosses are area today with lots of clouds and a brief, minor precipitation threat in the form of potential light rain/mix north and a few rain showers South Coast, followed by a return to breezy weather Thursday and Friday with a passing sprinkle/flurry possible each day as upper level low pressure crosses the region. High pressure provides a fair weather interlude with less wind Saturday before the next disturbance moves rapidly our way via the Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday with another rather brief period of precipitation – leaning toward rain for most of the region with a low pressure track just to the north and a redevelopment overhead and just to the east as the system moves quickly offshore. The windy, chilly conditions return during Sunday behind that system.

TODAY: Cloudy into midday with a touch of light rain/mix possible mainly I-90 belt northward, and some rain showers South Coast into early afternoon. Clouds think and break for some sunshine afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing rain/mix shower possible. Highs Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A slight chance of a passing sprinkle/flurry (if early enough). Highs 44-51. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. A period of rain – some mix possible southern NH briefly. Lows 35-42 early, then rising slightly. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy very early with rain ending, then a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 43-50. Wind W to NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Blocking pattern stays in place but shifts orientation eastward slightly during this period. We’ll watch for the next low pressure system mid to late period heading for the Great Lakes with a possibility to redevelop closer to New England.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

No changes to this part of the outlook with expected main storm track into Great Lakes and a bit milder pattern for our region. But any storms do need to be watched for redevelopment further south and east depending on the degree of blocking in place. This is the pre-Thanksgiving travel period so the weather becomes very important during this stretch of days and more refining of this forecast will be upcoming.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

The large scale pattern now features a “Greenland Block” set-up with high pressure over the ice block super-sized island, forcing colder air into the northeastern US along with a series of disturbances. Today is Veteran’s Day and I’d like to thank any veterans reading for their service! Veteran’s Day ceremonies outside today will be met with a gusty breeze and below normal temperatures today as we are in a strong westerly air flow behind a cold front. Enough instability and cold air combines for a few light convective showers developing in our area and/or migrating this far from the Great Lakes. Precipitation will be insignificant, but for some areas the first snowflakes of the season will be seen. The next disturbance comes our way via the Great Lakes Wednesday, and while upper levels cool to produce a mainly cloudy day as the trough passes overhead, the surface temps will moderate a little with a southwesterly breeze. Spotty very light rain (maybe brief mix if early enough and far enough inland) can occur, but for the most part it will be the cloudiness that’s dominant and not the precipitation. Thursday will be today junior with a gusty breeze, a chill, and maybe a passing sprinkle or snow flurry, and Friday will be a similar but with a slightly lower chance of a sprinkle or flurry, mainly in higher elevation areas. Saturday will feature fair weather with high pressure in control to start the weekend.

TODAY (VETERAN’S DAY): Clouds with intervals of sun. A brief snow flurry or sprinkle of rain possible, favoring higher elevations north and west of Boston. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A touch of light rain possible anywhere at times, even some early-day mix may occur mainly north of I-90. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing rain/mix shower possible. Highs Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A slight chance of a passing sprinkle/flurry (if early enough). Highs 44-51. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 26-33. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Blocking pattern stays in place but shifts orientation eastward slightly during the course of this period. Initially, a system will head east southeast through the Northeast in a west northwest air flow and can bring some light snow/mix/rain to the region to end the weekend on November 16, with some unsettled weather potentially lingering into November 17 if the system is strung out enough as it moves underneath blocking high pressure to the north. Fair weather dominates the middle of next week but toward the end of the period low pressure heads for the Great Lakes and brings clouds and maybe a precipitation chance back to the region at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

No changes to this part of the outlook with expected main storm track into Great Lakes and a bit milder pattern for our region. But any storms that track into the G.L. need to be watched for redevelopment southeastward or quasi-cutoff tendencies depending on the degree of atmospheric blocking still in place. So there remains some uncertainty and low confidence here.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

At upper levels, a low pressure trough will continue its slow trek across the Northeast early to mid week. At the surface, a warm front continues to drift northward across the region with light wind, areas of drizzle and fog in place, with a few rain showers as well, with a more southerly air flow set to take over toward midday as that front lifts northward and a cold frontal boundary approaches from the west. A wave of low pressure developing on that boundary will prolong occasional rainfall through the daylight hours. Tonight, the low moves beyond our region and opens the door for a drier, colder air mass from the west. Tuesday, Veteran’s Day, will be a chilly and windy day, with mainly dry weather, but we’ll have to watch for passing sprinkles of rain and flurries of snow due to cold air aloft associated with the upper level trough. An additional disturbance will dive out of the Great Lakes region and through this trough on Wednesday, bringing us lots of clouds. Previously, my forecast called for any precipitation with this system to remain north of our region, but I do need to include the chance for a little light rain/mix here, albeit insignificant. After the departure of this system, Thursday’s weather will resemble what is expected on Tuesday with breezy, chilly conditions, with a slight chance of a passing light shower of rain/mix/snow in a few areas. I’m expecting a little faster timing for the disturbance I previously mentioned for the start of the weekend, which shifts Friday’s forecast to include the chance of brief, insignificant precipitation.

TODAY: Overcast. Area of fog and drizzle with isolated to scattered showers this morning, then periods of rain this afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind variable under 10 MPH early, becoming S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Rain showers and a possible thunderstorm early, followed by breaking clouds. Lows 33-40. Wind shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY (VETERAN’S DAY): Clouds with intervals of sun. A brief snow flurry or sprinkle of rain possible, favoring higher elevations north and west of Boston. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A touch of light rain even some early-day mix may occur mainly north of I-90. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A brief passing rain/mix shower possible. Highs Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A rain/mix shower possible. Highs 46-53. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

High pressure brings fair weather to the region for the November 15-16 weekend with seasonable temps. Storm tracks into the Great Lakes early next week bringing a shot at unsettled weather to our region, followed by a return to fair weather toward the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

Watching one or two low pressure systems to track toward the Great Lakes with the potential to redevelop closer to New England bringing additional unsettled weather chances. Low confidence forecast. Still no temperature extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

An upper trough moves slowly through the Northeast today through Tuesday. It first produces unsettled weather from an initial low pressure area approaching from the southwest later today when its warm front generates some rainfall, especially later this afternoon and evening. A low level onshore flow will add moisture for drizzle and fog tonight into early Monday, and as the first low’s cold front reaches the coast Monday, additional low pressure triggered by the upper trough will prolong rain chances through the day, which finally come to an end in the evening as the low moves by and pulls the front offshore. Behind this comes a shot of colder air for Tuesday, Veteran’s Day, along with a mix of sun and abundant clouds as the upper low still has to finish crossing the region. These clouds can produce a sprinkle of rain or a light snow shower (especially in higher elevations) but no serious precipitation will occur. It will be “seriously chilly” and quite breezy however. So if you plan to be outside for Veteran’s Day ceremonies or any other reason, my suggestion is to dress for below normal chill and a biting breeze with wind chill temps in the 30s. A disturbance in a northwesterly air flow will bring lots of clouds to our region Wednesday, though I expect any light precipitation to stay north of our region. This will be followed by fair and windy weather Thursday. Temperatures will remain below normal through the mid week period.

TODAY: Partial sun early favoring eastern MA and the South Coast, otherwise mainly cloudy. Patchy light rain north central MA to south central NH early to mid morning. Rain chances increase from south to north late-day. Chance of thunderstorms South Coast region end-of-day. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Occasional drizzle. Periods of rain evening including a thunderstorm chance mainly Cape Cod area. Temperatures steady 48-55 or may rise slightly. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog early. Periods of rain. Highs 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W late.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY (VETERAN’S DAY): Clouds with intervals of sun. A brief snow flurry or sprinkle of rain possible, favoring higher elevations north and west of Boston. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

The upper flow sends one more disturbance our way via the Great Lakes from the west northwest around November 15 with brief light precipitation possible. After this, the upper flow shifts to take a more robust low pressure system into the Great Lakes mid to late period. Depending on the degree of high latitude blocking in place, we’ll have to watch for that system, if it occurs as prognosticated, to try redeveloping and/or cutting off closer to our area with a greater thread of unsettled weather. This is not a high confidence forecast but a current best-guess. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

The pattern that establishes itself toward the end of the 6 to 10 day period continues here as well, although this outlook does remain lower than average confidence at this time and I’ll continue to monitor pattern trends and medium range guidance’s reaction to them. No temperature extremes indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

A weather pattern that has featured fast-moving systems has slowed a bit with a broad trough to move through the region this weekend into the start of the new week. The cold front that was approaching our region and sent showers into the area last night has slowed to quasi-stationary and is allowing additional showers (even a few downpours with potential thunder for Cape Cod) over much of our region this morning, after which we will see a drier interlude with some partial clearing starting this afternoon. During this time, the frontal boundary will sag to the south and east, but another approaching low pressure area that it connects to will start to push it back northward as a warm front on Sunday, bringing us another episode of wet weather Sunday afternoon and evening. As that low center moves by to our west, a trailing cold front will amble into the region as we get to Monday, but again the front will be nearly parallel to the upper level flow for a while as the trough axis will be yet to move through from the west. This will allow yet another wave of low pressure to form, move up across the area, and prolong the rain chances well into Monday. Finally, this wave moving by and eastward advancement of the trough will signal an end to this unsettled weather episode and the arrival of a chilly, dry air mass Monday night and Tuesday (Veteran’s Day), with a gusty breeze and below normal temperatures. Outdoor Veteran’s Day ceremonies that take place Tuesday will have to contend with the gusty chill, but at least it will be a precipitation-free day. Another disturbance dives southeastward from the Great Lakes bringing lots of clouds back Wednesday. I’m not 100% sure yet if we see any precipitation from that disturbance as it may stay to our north. Depending on timing, if we do, a little light mix of rain/snow could be seen in portions of our region, but I’m leaning dry for now.

TODAY: Cloudy with occasional rain showers this morning including a slight chance of thunderstorms over Cape Cod. Partial clearing with a bit of sun possible this afternoon. Highs 56-63. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W shifting to N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early partial sun, then cloudy. Periods of rain in the afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind N shifting to E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Occasional drizzle and a chance of rain. Temperatures steady 48-55. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog early. Periods of rain. Highs 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W late.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-40. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY (VETERAN’S DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 47-54. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Upper flow shoots disturbances our way via the Great Lakes with the potential for short-duration precipitation events and near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Despite a lot of wishy-washy medium range guidance, leaning toward an upper pattern that sends a couple systems into the Great Lakes, which would be a slightly milder but still variable temperature pattern here with one or two opportunities for unsettled weather.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

A cold morning to start the day today but a decent temperature rebound follows as a southwest wind becomes established ahead of an approaching trough and cold front. This front will bring a round of rain showers late tonight to early Saturday morning before departing to the east. The air behind that front isn’t too chilly so look for it to feel rather mild for early November on Saturday with a sun/cloud mix. We’ll not be able to eek out a fully nice weekend through as another upper trough and associated surface low pressure area will approach on Sunday with rain chances coming back during the afternoon after a dry start. This trough will be a little deeper and larger in size than its predecessor and allow a second low pressure wave to form on the frontal boundary heading off the coast, prolonging rain chances into Monday – timing looks like morning to midday with a later-day drying trend. Follow this system comes a shot of much cooler air for Tuesday, Veteran’s Day, along with a gusty wind but dry weather.

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely late night. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain showers in the morning. Highs 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early partial sun, then cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 45-52. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain likely until midday. Breaking clouds later. Highs 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable then shifting to W.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind W-NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind W-NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

More clouds from a passing disturbance November 12 but precipitation chances look minimal at best. Next shot at precipitation comes at the start of the November 15-16 weekend – details uncertain. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Storm tracking into the Great Lakes early to mid period needs to be watched for redevelopment and more unsettled weather into our area. Drier trend later in the period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.