Wednesday July 10 2024 Forecast (7:48AM)

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 10-14)

The Bermuda High maintains control of the weather. This will be the case through late week, into the weekend. Meanwhile, the remnant low and moisture that once constituted Hurricane Beryl will track northeastward, passing west and north of our region. The primary effect will be to maintain the high humidity that we have. The passage of the system will also result in more wind during the next couple of days, making the air feel less stagnant. What will be notably absent in our region is rainfall related to the remnants of Beryl. The bulk of the moisture will be passing to our west and north, producing a significant rainfall event in parts of NY and northern New England. We may see a few showers and thunderstorms develop later this afternoon in parts of north central MA and interior southern NH. As a weak trough trailing the remnant low passes by there could be a few more showers and isolated downpours moving eastward through the region on Thursday morning. This feature will slow down and hang around Cape Cod and the South Coast through Friday. Those areas stand the best chance of seeing additional pop up showers and possible thunderstorms on Friday. Another disturbance crossing the region on Saturday, enhances the chance of showers and thunderstorms for part of the day. Slightly drier air should arrive later Saturday through Sunday – not “crispy drier” but “lower humidity” drier.

TODAY: Areas of stratus/fog early, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with a few isolated showers/thunderstorms this afternoon mainly north central MA and interior southern NH. Highs 85-92, but a little cooler South Coast region. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind SW to S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 68-75, warmest urban areas. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms through midday. Highs 83-90. Dew point lower to middle 70s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A pop up shower or thunderstorm possible mainly South Coast and Cape Cod. Highs 83-90. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 67-74. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

Heat / humidity dominate the first half of next week, may reduce later in the week. A couple episodes of showers and thunderstorms, but most of the time rain-free.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

No big changes to the pattern, warm to occasionally hot, brief breaks of drier air in a humid overall set-up. A few shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

72 thoughts on “Wednesday July 10 2024 Forecast (7:48AM)”

  1. Thanks TK
    This day in weather history is all about tornadoes in 1759 1989 and 2013.

    https://x.com/NWSBoston/status/1810992369417998472

    My first weather memory came 35 years ago today with that 1989 severe weather outbreak which produced multiple tornadoes in the northeast including one that came by my neighborhood around 5pm that day. I was five years old at the time and my mom and I were in the house when the tornado came by. Thankfully the only damage was the tree that came down in the front yard. The big one in CT that day was the F4 tornado which leveled parts of Hamden, CT. This was the last strong tornado to hit CT.

    Ryan Hanrahan from that day explaining the ingredients that went into this severe weather outbreak

    https://ryanhanrahan.substack.com/p/the-1989-tornado-outbreak

      1. I was five at the time I remember hearing the winds swirling and my mom was holding me. She had lived through a tornado before in the early 60s that knocked some of the shingles off the house. When things calmed down we saw the tree in the front yard which thankfully did not do damage to the house.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    Made 91 yesterday with overnigh low last night of 76!!

    Currently: 79

    Ocean temp: 64.6 (Boston Buoy)

  3. No question in my mind a tornado watch is coming for areas in or near the enhanced risk. Second time this year somewhere in the northeast there has been a 10 percent tornado chance. The other back in June for parts of NH and ME .

  4. I have a beef with yesterday’s high temp at Logan.

    It is said the high temp was 89F at 2:58 pm, ok …

    https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KBOS&hours=72

    At 2:54 and 3:05 pm, the on records 88F

    I get that it can be higher btwn those times

    Then …. Not once or twice, but 5 times, 3:10, 3:15, 3:25, 3:35 and 3:40pm, it records 90F

    And the high temp of 89F at 2:58pm

    Sure ….. why have the ob ??????

    1. So the high temp of 89F occurs 4 mins after and 7 mins before 2 Obs that show 88F, but doesn’t occur during any of the 5 reported OBs that record 90F ??????

      I think someone at the NWS took the under on 90F days this summer 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

        1. Could be …

          To be 89F, by rounding, the temp would fall btwn 88.5 and 89.4F

          But the 5 other OBs at 90F, rounding would imply 89.5F to 90.4F

          It’s just that during that June heatwave when the wind switched to west, the temp recorded 98F once and that was the high temp. If I recall correctly, the NWS came out and verified that the wind briefly came around to a westerly component to account for the suddenly jump.

          98F once that day = the high temp

          90F (5 times yesterday) = 89F high temp.

          Seems inconsistent.

  5. Thanks, TK

    We had our own private thundershower this morning around 1:10. We had one good lightning followed by a good thunderboomer and then several small thunders. I checked the radar on my phone and saw just a small green blob over our neighborhood!

    The rain gauge, this morning, read 0.00.

    It was by invitation only, I guess! 🙂

  6. Bermuda high / western Atlantic ridge has been much stronger and further west this warm season than the last couple of years.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=850th&rh=2024071012&fh=198&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    This is next Thursday.

    Now on this run, slated to be day 5 of a potential heat wave starting Sunday.

    The 500 mb ridge on this run, holding strong, fighting off the approaching trof now potentially making Thursday hot too.

    Let’s see if the euro goes this way too.

    I wonder if when a model shows a good trof in the northeast 10 days out, it underestimates the persistence of this years Bermuda high and then in the medium range, it adjusts the trof to be a lot less effective because it starts realizing how strong the Bermuda high will be ????

    1. Because up to even yesterday, Thursday was going to be a relief day, 80s and 50s dewpoints.

      This has Thursday being stifling.

    1. It’s incredible, I was just out in it.

      My house temp with the AC running is 75F.

      Coming from outside, it initially felt like 35F.

  7. And then maybe a relief day Friday ???, but gfs showing humidity continuing after that.

    I wonder if 2 months from now, we’ll be putting summer 2024 weather in the discussion with summer 1983 and 1988. I don’t remember those summers for 75F dps, but for how hot they were.

    Maybe because I was older, summer 1988 I remember better for being really hot.

    1. It’s not always the heat, it’s the damn dew point.
      A prolonged period of 80s with mid 70s dew points is DISGUSTING!

      1. Yes, it is, Tom. Thanks for asking. Hope yours is too.
        We’ve already been out a month already!!!
        Too fast, Tom. Too fast!

  8. 2 things:

    1, Boston obs. The actual obs sent every hour are augmented, and the temperature is given in tenths of a degree C, but the 5 minute obs, are only given in whole degrees C. So, if the actual temp is 31.6C, that is 88.9F, which will round to 89, but on the 5 minute obs, that will show up as 32C, which will get converted to 90F by all of the sites out there.

    2. When I left the office at 1:45this AM, as I crossed the border into Tyngsboro, I saw a flash in the clouds off to my SE. These became a little more frequent, and I had a tremendous light show with frequent lightning constantly illuminating the entire clouds with lots of bolts as well, from Tyngsboro all the way down to Randolph, when there were too many trees on Route 24 preventing me from seeing off to the SE any more. It turns out the cell I was seeing was nearly stationary over Carver/South Plymouth.

  9. Just went outside for my errands, about 40 minutes of walking and carrying groceries. It’s brutal. About as bad as I’ve ever felt it. I’m sure it’s been worse. But my aging body isn’t handling it the way it used to. I’m 59. Can you imagine when I’m Biden’s age. I won’t just be stammering my way through a debate, I won’t be able to be outside for more than 5 minutes.

    I envy TK’s ability to deal with it. Respect.

    In my humble opinion, one can dress for the coldest days of winter, whether inside or outside. But one cannot undress during the hottest and most humid part of the year to feel any difference. I could have done my errands naked and it wouldn’t have made a difference, plus I’d be in jail (but at least prison has AC … so maybe an idea).

  10. SAK: The cell you saw over Carver early this morning must have been the one that was over our area around 1:10 am.

    The announcers on the Red Sox broadcast last night reported seeing a couple of flashes of “heat lightning” during the game.

    1. Those flashes were a storm going right down Route 2 that I was watching the entire evening. It produced a wind gust to 70 mph at the airport in Orange (KORE).

  11. For all the tornado warnings in NY so far, no confirmations. However, the event is still ongoing so there’s going to be a lag.

    In the last 12 years the standards for issuing warnings have changed quite a bit. If this exact weather event had occurred about 15 years ago there would not have been nearly as many warnings issued.

    Sometimes the perception is altered by procedural changes, like several years ago when NWS Boston lowered their lower limit for the heat advisory issuance by 5°. Of course they’re going to be more advisories issued if you issue them 5° lower than you used to!

    These are important things to know in the science.

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