DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 18-21)
We saw the snow behave about as expected, and based on the later-day update, the changeover lines as well. The little details are still revealing themselves as the storm is progressing, and one thing to watch has been a boundary between milder and very cold air that slid down the Maine and NH Coasts into northeastern MA overnight, putting places like Lawrence into the middle and upper teens while Boston was reaching the middle 30s. This boundary, as of the writing of this blog, is slowly coming down the coast of MA now and we will have to see if it reaches the city of Boston before the morning is over. While we have a variety of precipitation from sleet and freezing rain over many areas to just plain rain where it’s mild enough, all of this will continue for some time, with areas seeing freezing rain the longest obviously having the most direct impact. But later, as precipitation begins to taper off, possibly as snow in some areas, the big story will become the temperature drop in areas that were in the milder air. Anything wet or any slush/snow not removed will freeze solid in very rapid fashion by the end of the day today. That will be the largest threat leftover with this event, other than the ongoing freezing rain. Still looking for a clearing trend tonight, but the definite is the bitter cold and strong wind, so if you do plan to try viewing the total lunar eclipse, you may want to choose a window to look out of rather than going outside. I think there will be enough clear sky to see it. Not forgetting coastal flooding, which will be an issue from mid morning to midday around the late morning high tide, which is astronomically quite high anyway and being added to by some moderately strong wind along the coast. Fairly widespread minor flooding is expected with pockets of moderate flooding. By tonight, a north northwest wind will mean minor flooding should be confined to north-facing shores of Cape Cod Bay with the late evening high tide. It will be cold enough by then that any splash over is likely to freeze on anything it makes contact with. So once this is over, we won’t have anything to talk about right? I mean everybody else may be talking about blizzards on models that won’t verify, but here at WHW we’ll talk about the upcoming few days, and you might wanna listen, because Monday is going to be one cold day, with lots of wind. Straight shot of Arctic air and wind chill to emphasize it. But at least it will be dry! There may be no more ice falling from the sky, but there will be plenty of ice left on the ground, so be careful if you will be out there. As we approach midweek, the cold eases a bit Tuesday, and much more so Wednesday and Thursday, which will turn somewhat unsettled as a front arrives and then hangs around. The details of this still have to be figured out, so the forecast below will be fairly generic to reflect the unknowns a few days out.
TODAY: Overcast with sleet, freezing rain, rain to the southeast, some snow southwestern NH, then all precipitation tapering off west to east late in the day. Thunder is possible RI and southeastern MA mid to late morning. Large temperature contrast ranging from around 15 northern MA and southern to NH to the 40s South Coast, but temperatures falling below 10 north and all the way to the 10s south by the end of the day. Wind variable 15-25 MPH South Coast, becoming N with higher gusts late-day, and elsewhere wind E to N 5-15 MPH increasing to 15-25 MPH late day. Higher wind gusts all areas late in the day. Wind chill falling below 0 by end of day.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 0-7. Wind N to NW 15-30 MPH. Wind chill frequently -5 to -10 and occasional -10 to -20.
MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Sun and passing clouds. Highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-30 MPH. Wind chill frequently -5 to -15.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-7. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, diminishing gradually. Wind chill below -10 at times.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow/mix showers transitioning to rain showers. Temperatures rise from the 20s to the 40s.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, may end as mix/snow late. Temperatures fall from the 40s to the 30s.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 25-29)
Seasonably chilly January 25, dry during day but snow showers at night as much colder air arrives for the January 26-27 weekend with a couple periods of snow showers possible. Slight moderation, still cold, and mostly dry end of period.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 30-FEBRUARY 3)
Look for a colder than average period of weather, dominated by a polar jet stream and minor systems with snow shower threats.