Tuesday Forecast

144 Comments

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 29-FEBRUARY 2)
Light onshore flow produces some light ocean effect snow showers in eastern MA and southeastern NH through midday today with no significant impact. Low pressure tracking north of the region tonight into Wednesday will drag a front across the region, and its precipitation will arrive as mainly snow then change to mainly rain (except far north and west where it stays snow or briefly mixes) then may end as snow on the back side briefly Wednesday morning as a wave of low pressure forms on the front and cuts across the region from southwest to northeast. An arctic cold front charges across the region west to east during Wednesday afternoon and early evening, producing snow showers and squalls that may briefly bring visibility to very low levels and may coat the ground quickly with snow, creating hazardous travel. Once these are by, the door is open to bitterly cold air which will be here but for a brief visit late Wednesday night through early Friday, rivaling the magnitude of the cold of January 21, but probably falling just shy, but with wind, you won’t notice much of a difference anyway. Even though Friday’s still cold, it will be one of those days when the 20s feel like the 40s in comparison to the day before. Expect dry weather and further temperature moderation for Groundhog Day with high pressure in control.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Cloudy. Light snow showers with dustings and minor coatings eastern MA and southeastern NH through midday. Snow arriving in central MA, southwestern NH, and eastern CT to western RI by dusk. Highs 30-37. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH this morning, E to SE up to 15 MPH this afternoon.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow to possible mix northwest, snow to rain most other areas, and may just start as rain South Shore of MA and South Coast of MA/RI, then a brief switch back to snow in most areas pre-dawn before ending. Snow accumulation patchy coatings far southeastern areas, coating to 1 inch I-95 belt, 1-3 inches central MA and interior southern NH. Temperatures rise slightly to 32-36 north and west, 37-41 south and east through late evening then fall back to 25-32 around dawn. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, mainly NE to N interior areas and SE to S in coastal areas, shifting to N-NW all areas up to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts toward dawn.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a lingering snow shower eastern areas early then a sun/cloud mix. Snow showers/squalls likely west to east mid to late afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a few snow squalls around early then clear. Lows 0-7. Wind NW 15-30 MPH. Wind chill falling below 0.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 8-15. Wind NW 15-30 MPH. Wind chill well below 0 at times.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 0s. Highs in the 20s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 0s to lower 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 3-7)
Moderating temperatures with dry weather February 3 and a risk of rain showers later February 4. Dry and slightly cooler February 5. Unsettled weather possible with a risk of rain/mix/snow February 6-7 as we’ll be near a boundary between cold air north and mild air south.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 8-12)
Unsettled weather departs early period and may return at the end of the period with variable temperatures. Not a great feel for how this period plays out at this time.

144 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  10. Thanks TK
    Tomorrow will be like watching a line of showers and thunderstorms in the summer. It will be a situation where not everyone will get one but if you do get one it looks to pack a pretty good punch.

  12. The timing is not good with the PM commute. Those amounts the HRRR model will come pretty quick in a snow squall. Snow squalls are like summer thunderstorms they don’t last long but could pack a punch.

  13. Tweet from Route 20 Western and Central Mass.
    BUFKIT soundings for tomorrow afternoon continue to be extremely “impressive” w/ very steep lapse rates & strong Omega values. Definitely looks like not only a snow squall sounding to me, but also a low-topped thunderstorm sounding. This is why I’m hitting on this so hard #mawx

  15. Its been a while since some of the meteorologists on twitter have been closely paying attention to a snow squall threat. Just like with the thunderstorms in the summer do all the ingredients come together tomorrow.

  17. Sutton just dumped something on our road. Being a small neighborhood at the tip of the town, I’m assuming the town is doing all roads.

      1. expansion,contraction,expansion,contraction. etc
        something always gives.

        but I think you knew that.

        plus add in some water and it is even worse.

      3. As a child I remember being fascinated by the Frost Heave signs as we drove to North Conway. My brother and I would rate them.

        I’ve never seen them appear quite as quickly as they did last Thursday night. I drive back roads into the center. They were hidden by puddles and the dark and driving rain. I hit three that could have swallowed my car.

        1. Me too! First frost heave signs I had ever seen was driving through the White Mtns as a kid. Sawyer Highway (Rte 118) was always bad as well as the Kancamagus.

  24. -27 below in Downtown Chicago is crazy enough, but then couple it with a 65 degree temperature rise over two days? Pretty wild.

    Eric Fisher Retweeted Win Ansley

    The current Chicago forecast of -27F Thursday morning to 38F Saturday afternoon would be the greatest ~54 hour temperature swing on record there, dating back to 1946.

  25. Another short range model the RAP picking up on those snow squalls in the 2pm to 7pm time period. Looking at the model on the cod site wants to give some areas of SNE a quick inch of snow in a short amount of time.

  27. We say this a lot during the winter its not the amount its the timing and tomorrow looks to be one of those situations.

    1. It does have a colder look and wants to keep your area all snow. It’s even a close call near me with the R/S line advancing about 10 miles north of me. Gives me about 3″

      Here is the 17z HRRR snowmap:

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019012917&fh=18

      NOTE: It’s not quite done snowing in northern NH and Maine at the end of this run, and these totals do not include anything that falls from the snow squalls in the PM/evening..

  30. Its very and I mean very light snow where I am.
    Close call for my area with the HRRR and RAP if it stays all snow or changes briefly to rain later.

  32. That 1.2 with those squalls comes in a short period of time.
    Going to be fun day tomorrow watching how that evolves.

    1. Hit or miss squalls I believe not everyone will see them . I think Wednesday Am will be the warmest part of the day before the drop .

      1. Agree. Very much like thunderstorms in the summer. The areas that do see them will see briefly heavy snow and maybe up to an inch of snow.

  35. I think there might be hope for a different pattern in Feb and March ….

    Reason : Slowly, over time, El Nino has been weakening, since around the early start of Meteorological Winter.

    It typically takes the atmosphere some time to respond to this change. Its not a huge change, but a change nonetheless.

  36. 12z Euro looks interesting around 2/8
    with a nice looking coastal “near”
    the benchmark. Of course we know that isn’t happening.

  38. Looking at the extended GFS and Euro, the period of Feb 7-14 and potentially beyond looks interesting. Boundary setting up nearby and waves of low pressure riding along it either near us or to the south and east of us. Could result in nothing more than rain/mix events for us and more snow up north but it does look like it wants to sag south over time. 12z Euro in fact has a nice little snowstorm for SNE at Day 10.

    I could see the switch flipping on for a period of time in Feb and actually getting 2 or 3 progressive winter weather events in succession in this pattern. Just need a little blocking to our north! We’ll see.

    1. I will also add that what I been thinking for a while, Febuary will be our month for snow here in SNE šŸ˜‰

  44. Eric – the main thing to watch out for tomorrow will be potent snow squalls during the evening commute window 5-8p. Brief intense snow with poor visibility and high wind gusts, quick coatings to 1.5″ in these as they blow through. #wbz

    https://imgur.com/a/h9VaLAx

    Looks like a solid line. Rather wide in RI especially.

    1. I guess we will find out in about 24 hours. Might be the most exciting thing we see for a while. šŸ™‚

  45. Feelings on the squall line are that it will be a SOLID line, in other words nobody misses out. I think a widespread 1/2 inch to 2 inches with the line in an average duration of about 30 minutes, with 1/2 inch being the rule and 2 inches being more the exception, as one would expected. Thunder cannot be ruled out just due to the dynamics but I doubt it will take place.

    Been following weather a long time, and this may be the best line dynamics for snow squalls I’ve seen since sometime in the 1980s.

    1. Well, if I’d read down, I would have saved my breath. Thanks, TK. Sure is what the experts….that’d be you šŸ˜‰ ……….are seeing.

      1. If at all possible, anybody who can leave early enough tomorrow to avoid being on the road when these come through may want to very well try to do that. This is when 1/2 inch of snow can cause gridlock if it hits the wrong place at the wrong time.

        1. TK, forgive me for not paying enough attention to the details, but will the temps plummet after these squalls? Just thinking about removal of what snow we may receive.

          1. Yes, it will be immediate, but the wind will probably take care of most of anything that falls anyway.

              1. No, I think it will be slightly less cold air temperature-wise, but with wind a little stronger it may feel about as cold when you factor in the wind.

  47. Mark safe travels tomorrow
    From Ryan Hanrahan
    Unusually powerful snow squalls are a possibility tomorrow. 1″ or 2″ of snow may fall in a very short period of time in some towns with strong winds and visibility briefly near 0.

  49. With these snow squalls tomorrow I am wondering if SNE will meet the criteria for a snow squall warning

    1. Interesting, JJ. I didn’t know there was such a thing. I did find this. Thank you.

      Criteria for the National Weather Service to issue a Snow squall warning include: Visibility of less than one quarter of a mile. Sub-freezing temperatures on the ground. Expected to last in one area less than 60 minutes.

  51. I would expect widespread snow squall warnings tomorrow. In addition to briefly blinding snowfall, strong wind gusts in excess of 40-45mph could occur with any squalls. It should be a very exciting afternoon and evening.

    1. My aim is to get into a place to take video of a wall of snow arriving and take slow motion video mid-squall. šŸ™‚

  52. I have never heard of a Snow Squall Warning. It will be interesting as to what the ā€œcolorā€ will be on a map.

    Jimmy, do you know? šŸ™‚

  53. Thank you, TK.

    I love etymology. I know, I’m kind of old-fashioned and eccentric in this respect. Once again, we borrow from old Norwegian and Icelandic for a weather term: squall’s origin is skval in old Norse and Icelandic.

  54. The frost heaving this year is doing a number on the roads. I noticed that this past weekend. If we had had more snow in SNE the roads would be even worse, as snow plows tends to make small potholes larger, and sometimes the sheer force of a plow can create a new pothole. So, if we get snow in February and March – I’m VERY skeptical about this prospect – our roads this spring will be in rough shape. Not that they’ve ever been in great shape. For an affluent nation, it’s remarkable how relatively poor our infrastructure is. It’s an area the Democrats and the Trump Administration can work together on. I sincerely hope they do.

    1. Most areas will get more snow in February than Nov-Jan combined, but it will still be below normal. šŸ™‚

        1. He’s actually misreading a percentage map for a magnitude map. It probably will average somewhat above normal in that time frame, but not much above. It’s also unrelated to the February snowfall forecast overall.

    2. Our infrastructure is the way it is bc people get paid. Drive in Norway and their roads are perfect year round. Wonder why?

  55. Pounding snow now in Eastern NY, Berkshire County and Litchfield County. Just saw a report of 6″ on the ground already at Saratoga and Tannersville, NY. Winsted, CT already reporting an inch as well.

    Flurries here in Manchester CT but looks like a wall of heavier precip is about to move in…

    1. Their “in-house” model, which is not all that accurate from my observations of it. But when I saw his weathercast a short time ago he and P.G. were hitting the squall potential pretty hard, saying many areas could be over 1 inch of accumulation with them.

    2. Just looked at the NAM’s, WRF’s, HRRR, HRDPS, RGEM. All still very bullish on the squall potential tomorrow.

      1. And I continue to agree with them all. Only question to answer is timing and whether or not there will be isolated squalls outside of the line.

    2. True, but I remain skeptical as these events are still at least 10 days from now. Long-range predictions have not been good all winter. Moreover, after this lobe of polar air departs – which it does after another 48 hour cameo appearance – the cold air becomes more or less marginal for a long stretch. This doesn’t mean no snow, but it also doesn’t bode well for snow, at least not in SNE.

  58. I just looked at the GEFS and 12z Euro EPS. Both look favorable around 2/7 and beyond for winter weather threats. Cold air and boundary sagging south over time with potentially a series of systems passing south and east of us.

    Teleconnection wise:

    EPO and AO negative. The MJO, per the Euro and a few other models, is potentially headed into Phase 8 and 1 beyond that which would be favorable snow phases for us. NAO looks to go neutral next week. If we go negative and actually get some blocking going, we may finally be looking good for a stretch of wintry weather here in SNE. Cautiously optimistic……

    1. Some MJO forecasts. Check out where that green line is headed in each of these…straight into Phase 8 and Phase 1 beyond that:

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmm.shtml

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/emon.shtml

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/emom.shtml

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/bomm.shtml

      Snow time??

      1. I noted somewhere the other day that the MJO was trending just a little bit stronger entering phase 7. It still remains to be seen if it makes it into 8 & 1 but this is the strongest sign so far, despite those “yellow lines” being all over the place. What that indicates to me is that there is enough uncertainty in the guidance projections that it’s basically a coin flip as to whether or not it remains a factor into the favorable phases or just drops into neutral again. We should know more soon. I’m leaning toward an 8-to-1 period of weak to moderate intensity and if that happens, THEN we will snow at least to some degree.

        1. I am cautiously optimistic seeing large portions of those gray 50% and 90% blobs over Phase 8 and 1. That said, the models are showing the MJO weakening from its present state. And I did not post the NCEP/GFS forecast which shows it weakening and drifting around in Phase 6/7. We’ll see.

          1. That has been the tendency for months and it’s hard not to forecast persistence. So I’ll believe 8 & 1 when I see it. šŸ˜›

  59. Snowing at a decent clip now in Manchester CT. Parking lots and walkways are white, grass partially covered. We’ll see how long we can hold onto this before the changeover. BDL holding at 27F but its up to 40F in New Haven. Already raining most of the southern half of the state.

  63. We’ve already flipped to rain here in Manchester CT after about an inch of snow. Well, was good while it lasted.

  67. BDL still holding at 26 degrees right now with snow. 20 miles away and I’m 34 and raining. So close yet so far.

    North/central and northwest CT really going to overachieve with this one.

  69. Squall Watch 19! Now thatā€™s a braking weather hype headline I could get behind!

    Looking forward to watch it approach from the west and depart to the east on top of the Holyoke Range in Soutb Amherst.

    I am amused by the folks who gave up on winter yesterday who are back on board because of the GFS which the often mocked by them when it solution doesnā€™t fit the agenda and some projected teleconnectioms that have been modeled to be 2 weeks away for 2 months.

    It is going to snow in February. Winter is not over. I am quite confident of that. It is going to be a below normal snowfall month and season. It happened before and will happen again. Probably next winter.

    March and April will not be winter like months on average.

    I just donā€™t see the strength or persistence of 7 to push us to 8 and 1.
    .

    1. Thank you sir . I am quite curious as to what you & Tk might be seeing for next winter . I was joking with Tk as itā€™s so far away to say that & would love your feedback, thank you sir .

  70. Just watched NECN’s Tim Kelley – whose forecasts and “big picture” trends I enjoy – present a map with snow depth throughout New England and Southern Quebec. Tremendous amounts of snow in the Quebec City region. Staggering. Especially given that they really do have another 3 months to go in terms of accumulating snows. And they don’t get thaw days like we do. For them a mild day is low 30s. I’ve been there in February, and it basically snows every day or every other day. I was there in late March and it was sunny and cold (30-34F) with 3 feet of snow on the Plains of Abraham. As Kelley pointed out the drop off in snow depth south of Concord NH is dramatic. This is something I witnessed first hand this past weekend. Barely any snow south of Concord NH, but copious amounts, especially in and around the Greens, Whites and then due northeast towards Caribou, Maine.

  71. We’ve flipped back to snow here at 32F and coming down moderately again. Looks like we’ve got another hour or two to accumulate some snow here on the back end.

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