7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
Making no changes today. Tranquil day today with a small area of high pressure overhead but clouds will roll in ahead of a weakening disturbance which, moving right along, may bring a touch of light snow/rain to parts of the region tonight before departing early Saturday. Most places will see nothing from it. Broad low pressure will move in Saturday night into Sunday, bringing milder air and a period of rain. A surface boundary will likely set up somewhere near or north of the Mass Pike, south of which will be the mildest air during the day. This boundary may lift a little north during the night into early Monday before a stronger cold front arrives Monday night to bring colder air back by Tuesday. At that time we will already be watching the approach of another low pressure area from the southwest that previously has been talked about as a snow threat, and still is, but not a great threat as far as we can see with any confidence. Although it remains something to watch.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief very light rain and/or snow possible. Lows 30-36. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind light SE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arriving late from west to east, may start as a mix with some snow and/or sleet higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 32-38. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Overcast with rain, drizzle, areas of fog morning. Cloudy with areas of drizzle and chance of a rain shower southern NH and northern MA, mostly cloudy with a slight risk of a rain shower southern MA, eastern CT, and RI afternoon. Highs 42-48 southern NH and northern MA, 48-55 southern MA, eastern CT, and RI. Wind light variable northern areas, south to southwest 10-20 MPH southern areas.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a passing rain or snow shower evening. Lows from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 40s.
TUESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight risk of snow late. Temperatures fall to the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)
Potential snow December 5 but system may pass largely south of the region. Watching for a disturbance that may bring snow showers late December 6 into December 7 otherwise mainly dry. Another system may threaten with snow/mix later December 8 into December 9 but highly uncertain. Temperatures below normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)
Still expecting the majority of the subtropical jet stream energy to remain to the south with minor systems in the polar jet stream bringing light precipitation threats and keeping temperatures near to mostly below normal.

8:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
No changes to thoughts on upcoming weather. Gusty breeze and a chill today between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure, then more tranquil with high pressure overhead Friday. Weak disturbance may bring spotty very light rain/snow first thing Saturday, probably pre-dawn if at all, but basically a dry day. Broad low pressure approaches and will bring milder air and rain into the region Saturday night into Sunday morning, but this system will be weakening as it passes through. Drier air returns by Monday but not that cold. We’ll have to wait for a cold front to deliver colder air and that is not due to arrive until evening.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief very light rain and/or snow possible overnight. Lows 30-36. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain arriving at night. Highs 38-45. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely morning. Slight chance of a rain shower afternoon. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of a passing rain or snow shower evening. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)
Will have to watch arrival of colder air timed with a wave of low pressure that can bring snow/mix/rain December 4-5 with timing and details to be sorted out in the days ahead. Drier weather follows for December 6-7 with the next precipitation threat around December 8. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)
Transitional pattern, active with amount of systems but generally not expecting major storms as the polar jet tries to become dominant and the subtropical jet trends more southward. Still risks of unsettled weather a few times with timing uncertain this far in advance.

8:58AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
Upper level low pressure crosses the region today, and while not a stormy day, it will be slightly unsettled with a lot of cloudiness and a few rain/snow showers possible. This low departs and a broad northwesterly flow between it and approaching high pressure will bring blustery and chilly weather to the region Thursday, but it will be a dry day, as Friday will be, but more tranquil as high pressure moves over the region. A weakening disturbance may bring brief light rain/snow Saturday, a cloud-dominated day as there will be little break between that system and an approaching larger one from the southwest that will combine with milder air to bring yet another round of rain to the region Saturday night into Sunday. However this system carries much less potential for heavy rainfall as it will be weakening and losing support during its transit across the Northeast.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of passing rain and snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 22-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief light rain/mix/snow possible early. Dry most of daylight and early evening. Rain arriving by late night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely morning. Slight chance of a rain shower afternoon. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)
Fair, breezy, slightly colder December 3. Next precipitation threat is from a system passing near or south of the region later December 4 through December 5 and this system has a better chance of having snow involved with it should it be far enough north for impact. Fair, colder weather to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)
There is uncertainty in timing of systems, but the overall pattern is transitional between the active southern jet stream dominated pattern we’ve been in to one with less southern jet stream involvement and more polar jet stream domination. These transitions can still be rather unsettled and there will be threats to monitor about every other day.

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
The storm that has been on my “radar” for 2 weeks finally departs today, slowly, kind of. As it lifts to the north and the old primary low elongates as the secondary pulls away toward the Canadian Maritimes, it will set up a broad westerly flow across the region with a slow drying-out process getting underway during the course of the day, though it won’t seem like that at first, starting out with low pressure overhead and plenty of low level moisture. But by this evening, you’ll notice the change, and this will continue through Wednesday, which will still be somewhat unsettled as a broad upper level low pressure area still has to transit the region from west to east, and with colder air incoming, this will result in a few rain and snow showers. We will have 2 fully dry calendar days Thursday and Friday, the first with a gusty northwesterly breeze between broad low pressure to the east and high pressure building in from the west, the second more tranquil with high pressure overhead. A weakening disturbance will be crossing the region early Saturday and may produce brief light rain and/or snow. As much as I’d like to tell you we’re done with the series of storms, we’re not, and another will approach later Saturday, spreading clouds right back into the region.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy morning with areas of drizzle/fog seacoast NH, eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT while showers of rain and higher elevation snow occur central MA to interior southern NH with minor snow accumulation possible in Worcester Hills of north central MA and Monadnocks of NH. Mostly cloudy afternoon with a slight chance of a passing rain/mix shower. Temperatures start the day 34-40 interior higher elevations, 41-47 elsewhere, and very gradually fall. Wind E 5-15 MPH eastern coastal areas, light variable elsewhere through mid morning, then becoming W all areas and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing light snow shower. Lows 26-32. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of passing rain and snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-28. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Brief light rain/mix/snow possible early. Rain arriving by late night. Dry most of daytime. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)
Transitional pattern. December 2 sees rain to start, drying to end. A break December 3. Next system brings rain and/or snow later December 4 into December 5, with colder air coming in during and after its passage.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)
Overall colder pattern becomes established as we head into a polar jet stream dominated set-up but cannot rule out at least some moisture from the subtropical jet still becoming involved with a passing northern system. While the overall trend is toward drier, as in less southern jet stream storminess impacting the region, it’s still an active pattern for the polar jet with colder air and so the chance of minor but colder systems increases.

9:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
The final 5 days of November will follow a pattern we’ve seen for a good part of this autumn, and this is made clear right away by the next in a series of storms, which will be arriving in an already drizzle-saturated region as plenty of low level moisture is already in place. There are even clusters of essentially ocean-effect rainfall moving in from the east southeast this morning that will be around prior to the storm’s rainfall arriving later. The storm system will bring a solid rainfall to the region later today through most of tonight, with the rain exiting around dawn Tuesday. This is the long-talked-about “Colorado low” that was first mentioned on the blog back on November 12, and seems to be keeping its promise to visit us on its scheduled date of November 26. Tuesday and Wednesday will be unsettled days but will be more cloud dominated than anything else, with just some scattered rain showers Tuesday and snow showers Wednesday as both the surface and air above turn colder during the passage of an upper level low pressure area. Between that departing low and approaching high pressure expect a dry, chilly, blustery Thursday and a more tranquil Friday as the high pressure area moves overhead during the course of the day.
Forecast details…
MONDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Drizzle likely. Scattered rain through early afternoon. Steadier rain arriving later in the afternoon. Highs 40-46. Wind E 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH South Coast.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times, tapering off toward dawn. Areas of fog. Lows 36-41 interior MA and southern NH, holding steady 40-46 or even rising slightly to the south. Wind E to NE 15-25 MPH southern NH and northern MA, SE to SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. Wind gusts may reach or exceed 40 MPH at times.
TUESDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain showers early, then variably cloudy with passing brief rain showers possible. Highs 42-48 morning, gradually cooling back to the 30s afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH southern NH and northern MA, SW to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts in areas to the S, then W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts all areas afternoon.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing light snow shower. Lows 26-32. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Diminishing wind. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 1-5)
Transitional pattern as December begins. Weakening small low pressure system brings clouds and perhaps some light precipitation early Saturday December 1. Larger low pressure area approaches the region Sunday December 2 with overcast and eventual rainfall. Current timing suggest drier weather December 3 and also a little colder. Next low pressure area comes along December 4 into December 5 with a period of rain/mix/snow possible. Too early to determine details but snow becomes more likely for a larger portion of the region with colder air. Will monitor.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 6-10)
Overall colder pattern becomes established as we head into a polar jet stream dominated set-up but cannot rule out at least some moisture from the subtropical jet still becoming involved with a passing northern system. While the overall trend is toward drier, as in less southern jet stream storminess impacting the region, it’s still an active pattern for the polar jet with colder air and so the chance of minor but colder systems increases.

7:59AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
The first of 2 wet weather systems is ongoing but will gradually loosen its grip on the region today as steady rain winds down, some drizzle lingers, and eventually drier air takes over as the low center departs to the southeast and east of New England. The second system will follow a similar track to the first, maybe a bit further north, bringing more wet weather into the region by Monday afternoon/night. As this system departs Tuesday, a drying process will take place but a few rain showers may linger, and these showers may linger into Wednesday but in the form of snow showers as a cold upper level low pressure area swings across the region. A drier northwesterly air flow will take over by Thursday. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Rain ending by mid morning. Areas of drizzle and perhaps an isolated rain shower through midday. Highs 41-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts Cape Cod in the morning.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 37-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH early, light variable, then light E before dawn.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely by afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 40-46. Wind E 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH South Coast.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Lows 36-41 interior MA and southern NH, holding steady 40-46 or even rising slightly to the south. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH southern NH and northern MA, SE to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA.
TUESDAY: Cloudy start with lingering rain showers early, then variably cloudy with passing rain showers possible. Highs 42-48 morning, gradually cooling back to the 30s afternoon. Wind variable 5-15 MPH southern NH and northern MA, SW to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts in areas to the S, then W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts all areas afternoon.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Chance of snow showers. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
Transitional pattern during this period so a little lower on confidence with time. Chilly northwest flow may contain a disturbance with snow showers November 30. High pressure with dry weather December 1. Advancing low pressure from west may bring wet weather (favoring rain) later December 2 to early December 4.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 5-9)
Colder weather during this period, a few snow shower threats would be most likely from disturbances in the polar jet stream with less of a chance of any moisture from the subtropical jet stream reaching the region, although can’t rule that out as sometimes medium range guidance does not see them this far in advance and that stream will still be somewhat active.

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
No big changes today. Two low pressure systems will impact the region, both with mild Pacific air in place resulting in rain instead of anything frozen, despite the monumental chill we’re just recovering from now. Just another example of changing weather. The timing of these systems brings the main rain threats across southeastern New England in the overnight to mid morning hours of Sunday, and the afternoon and nighttime hours of Monday. The second of the two systems will have a very broad circulation as it exits Tuesday, with a gusty westerly wind but still a rain shower risk which then changes to a snow shower risk Wednesday with the help of colder air and an upper level low pressure area. Forecast details…
TODAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 41-47. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives. Lows 35-42. Wind SE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Rain ending by mid morning. Areas of drizzle. Highs 41-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod in the morning.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 37-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH early, light variable, then light E before dawn.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely by afternoon. Areas of fog. Highs 40-46. Wind E 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH South Coast.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Windy. Scattered rain showers day. Isolated snow showers evening. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Chance of snow showers. Lows from the middle 20s to lower 30s. Highs from the middle to upper 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
A chilly northwesterly air flow and dry weather expected November 29-30. High pressure is expected to dominate with fair weather December 1-2, then milder with a chance of rain showers December 3 as high pressure moves offshore and a trough approaches from the west. This represents slower timing and evolution than was previously indicated and will be part of a pattern readjustment.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 4-8)
This period may start mild and unsettled with rain showers then a turn to sharply colder air with a risk of a few snow showers, but the overall trend toward mainly dry weather.

10:08AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
Another quick update today as folks recover from food comas or overnight shopping excursions. I may be doing a bit of both myself! High pressure dominates, cold and dry today. Low pressure approaches Saturday as it warms up, enough so that we’ll see a rain event Saturday night and Sunday morning. A second storm will deliver a similar result Monday before it elongates and lifts north of the region, leaving the area with a few lingering rain/snow showers Tuesday as a drying process begins. Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 41-47. Wind light SE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives. Lows 35-42. Wind SE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Rain ending by mid morning. Highs 41-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod in the morning.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady in the 40s.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Windy. Scattered rain showers day. Isolated snow showers evening. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
As low pressure lifts away a gusty wind, colder, and a few possible snow showers November 28. High pressure brings fair and chilly weather November 29-30. Low pressure may bring some unsettled weather to start December but not highly confident on this.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)
A low pressure area may bring unsettled weather early in this period otherwise mainly dry weather expected. Temperatures briefly milder to start the period then trending colder.

8:34AM

Happy Thanksgiving to all! I am thankful to have so many people reading and commenting on my blog every day! I truly enjoy writing it. 🙂

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)
Short and sweet today, just a quick update. Y’all know it’s one of the coldest Thanksgivings on record, but at least there is no storminess to deal with. The edge comes off the cold for Black Friday as the wind is absent underneath high pressure. High pressure moves off to the east and low pressure approaches from the west Saturday, and by the time its precipitation arrives it will have warmed enough so we’re only talking about rain, which tapers off early Sunday then returns with the arrival of a second low pressure system from west to east Monday. Forecast details…
TODAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH. Wind chill below 0 at times especially morning.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Diminishing NW wind.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 18-25. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain arrives at night. Temperatures rise to the 40s. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain early. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady in the 40s.
MONDAY: Cloudy. AM fog, PM rain. Temperatures steady in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
Broad low pressure stretches out north of the region then drifts away as it turns colder and breezy with a few rain to snow showers November 27-28. High pressure should keep the region generally dry and seasonably chilly for the last couple days of November. Low pressure approaching will bring some unsettled weather to the region by December 1 based on current timing, though this does not look like a major storm at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)
Minor storm system expected to bring unsettled weather to start the period followed by mainly fair and colder weather. Watch for another system late in the period with a precipitation threat. Temperatures near to below normal.

Last year I mentioned struggling with the winter forecast, which ended up verifying somewhat but not completely. Temperature patterns are, in general, easier (using that word loosely) to forecast than precipitation patterns. Or are they? I’ve had it go both ways. I guess I could say again there is a struggle coming up with this forecast, but are any long range forecasts easy? No. So this is really just the normal. And speaking of normal, it’s time to discuss how close to, or far away from, normal that I feel our temperatures, precipitation, and snowfall will be during December through March. I include March in the winter outlook basically encompassing all of “meteorological winter” December through February, as well as “astronomical winter” from winter solstice to vernal equinox. We all know here in New England that March is often more weather-related to the winter month of February than it is to the spring month of April, so for most it’s still winter in reality while in your fantasy it’s already spring. Oh well, facts are facts. What do I think is going to happen this season? Read on!

At this time last year we had broken a drought and were still in a noticeable long term precipitation deficit, which, on paper, still exists if you go back through 2013, but is far less apparent if you take into account one of our wettest autumns on record here in 2018 (the wettest in some locations). There have been some suggestions that a wet autumn leads to a snowy winter. Statistics will show this correlation to be about as good as a coin flip, so it’s not a big factor. So we look to a combination of the ongoing weather pattern and how the medium term to long term atmospheric and oceanic indices may or may not have an impact on it. My most recent, very recent, examination of these reveals these main points. ENSO is showing developing weak El Nino which may approach moderate but probably stay weak through most of the winter, maybe morphing to Modoki style which means the warmer water is concentrated more to the west of the South American coast rather than along and just off of it. PDO looks negative for a while which tends to keep El Nino events weaker. QBO coming out of strong negative phase the last few months and looking to go positive during the course of the winter, though weak in magnitude so may not be a major factor. MJO, which is something that favors cold and/or snow in the Northeast while in phases 8, 1, and 2, has been very weak and almost a non-factor for several months. It’s projected to be weak to borderline moderate and move through phases 8, 1, and 2 from late November into December, but it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have, so not giving it all that much weight right now. AO/NAO trend is negative for both, which tends to trigger colder weather and sometimes storminess in this area, depending on the positions of blocking features and proximity of northern and southern jet streams and their ability to phase. The upcoming pattern favors a strongly negative AO and negative trending toward neutral NAO for the next few weeks, a weak to moderately negative AO and a split on the NAO but with the tendency for it to be negative more often than positive. Ironically if I was making a forecast specifically for the US Southeast there are factors that point to both mild AND cold, so it comes down to which are the overwhelming factors, and that will have an impact on the weather here as well. The PNA looks to me like it wants to be positive early and late winter, and neutral to negative in the middle. A positive PNA tends to induce troughing in the East with colder weather. Again, none of these will singlehandedly determine the winter pattern here, so trying to come up with a result based on the interaction of these is difficult, at best, but here is my best shot at a month by month forecast of the large scale pattern and its resultant impact on temperature and precipitation here in southeastern New England. And as always we can talk more about these indices and what they mean in detail in the blog comments…

DECEMBER
Synopsis: Weak borderline Modoki El Nino establishes. Major drivers will include that combined with AO/NAO tending to be negative. Should be a split flow jet stream with polar jet dominating our weather and subtropical jet staying mostly to the south. Jet stream phase ups may occur but the most likely places for this is the Midwest which would result in a parent low traveling through the Great Lakes, a brief warm-up, and a system being pulled apart producing more rain than snow, with the other phase up location likely offshore, leaving the region drier/colder as main action passes south and east of the region. Most of the snowfall in this pattern would be from polar jet stream disturbances including clippers and polar and arctic cold fronts. Wildcard is MJO passing through favorable cold/snow phases, but maybe too weak to have a major influence. Snowfall forecast is high stakes because we can have very little or the forecast below can verify from just 1 or 2 significant systems.
Temperature: Below normal.
Precipitation: Near to below normal.
Snow: Near to above normal.

JANUARY
Synopsis: Weak to borderline moderate potentially Modoki El Nino with AO negative to neutral and NAO neutral to positive. The NAO’s phase shift would lift the polar jet to the north enough for the temperature to be milder than December, relative to normal, but still close enough so that snowcover-fueled cold shots could still occur. The subtropical jet would remain active with wet weather to the south including rain events for the Southeast and mixed/snow events for the Mid Atlantic, with a lot of these missing New England to the south.
Temperature: Near normal.
Precipitation: Below normal.
Snow: Below normal.

FEBRUARY
Synopsis: El Nino weakens slightly, AO/NAO more strongly negative. Blocking returns and is strong enough so that storm systems from phasing subtropical and polar jet energy pass mostly to the south. However, unlike January, a southward-displaced polar jet stream would keep it colder
Temperature: Below normal.
Precipitation: Below normal.
Snow: Below normal.

MARCH
Synopsis: The first third of the month would see a continuation of the February pattern before relaxing with more separation in the jet streams as AO/NAO trend toward neutral and subtropical jet is suppressed as well as a little weaker as El Nino reaches its weakening stage.
Temperature: Below normal early month, near normal later month.
Precipitation: Below normal.
Snow: Below normal.

WINTER SEASON OVERALL
Temperature: Below normal.
Precipitation: Below normal.
Snow: Near to below normal.
-Boston 30-40 inches
-Worcester 35-45 inches
-Providence 30-40 inches
-Hartford 30-40 inches

8:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)
I’ll keep this discussion brief as it’s a busy day for many and you don’t need a book to read here. No big changes anyway. Here comes an arctic front later today, snow showers/squalls possible but not everybody will see them. What everybody will see (or more appropriately, feel) is the arctic air that prompts the nickname “Cold Turkey” for Thanksgiving 2018, which will be the coldest in recent time, perhaps the coldest daytime since records have been kept. There will be wind along with the cold between high pressure approaching from the west and the low that gave rain and snow to the region yesterday, now a major storm in the Canadian Maritimes. For Black Friday shoppers, expect cold, but less wind as high pressure settles overhead. This high will then move off to the east allowing low pressure to approach the region Saturday, but wet weather is likely to hold off until Saturday night, and yes it will be in the form of rain as we’ll have warmed considerably. Sunday, we end up in between that system and another one approaching from the southwest, so it may be a damp day but may not be doing much, if anything, from the sky. Forecast details…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Snow showers/squalls possible north and west of Boston by late afternoon. Highs 34-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated to scattered snow showers/squalls evening. Clear overnight. Lows 10-17. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts 30-40 MPH. Wind chill falling below 0.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH. Wind chill below 0 at times especially morning.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15. Diminishing NW wind.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain at night. Temperatures rise to the 40s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)
A low pressure area will move into the region as mild air remains in place bringing rain to the region November 26. A drying, colder trend with a few rain to snow showers possible November 27-28. High pressure brings mainly dry weather to end the month of November.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)
The weather pattern will feature a split flow (2 jet streams, polar and subtropical). The northern (polar) jet stream will become dominant regarding out weather bringing shots of cold air and a few minor episodes of precipitation while the southern (subtropical) jet stream tries to send a larger system at us around mid period, however much of this may end up passing to the south as the streams to not phase. Temperatures near to below normal.

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
The second of 2 low pressure waves will pass by today, strengthening as it does so. This one’s precipitation is a little heavier, and the air is a little colder, with a rain/snow line northwest of Boston that will eventually start to head toward the southeast. There is no change in the overall idea on snowfall amounts, with the most appreciable snowfall occurring in the hills of north central MA across interior southern NH. Drier air works in tonight behind the departing system. A strong arctic cold front will approach from the west Wednesday and reach the area in the evening, and while the daytime will be tolerable though chilly and breezy, a shot of unseasonably cold air will be arriving in the evening, just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday, which will be one of the coldest we’ve seen, along with some wind. A few snow showers or snow squalls are possible as this air mass arrives Wednesday evening, but the holiday itself will be dry and bright despite the chilling cold. High pressure will move right overhead Friday which will be a cold/dry day. As high pressure slides offshore Saturday, temperatures will moderate, but clouds will arrive as well as a low pressure area approaches from the west. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Snow north and west, rain south and east changing to mix/snow. Precipitation ending west to east during the afternoon. Snow accumulation 2-4 inches higher elevations north central MA and interior southern NH, coating to 2 inches elsewhere except little or nothing southeastern MA and RI. Highs 36-43 morning-midday, falling slightly thereafter. Wind light N to NW.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 22-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of passing snow showers/squalls evening. Highs 33-39. Rapid temperature drop at night. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NNW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts evening.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 10-17. Wind NNW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill falling below zero at times.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny. Highs 18-25, coldest in higher elevations. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 0 at times.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Less wind. Lows from the upper 0s to middle 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
2 waves of low pressure will bring wet weather in the form of rain to the region November 25-26 before a trend to drier and colder with a few rain to snow showers November 27-28. Dry weather expected under the influence of high pressure November 29.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
Overall pattern looks polar jet stream dominated while moisture from the southern jet stream is kept at bay to the south, leaving this area cold and mainly dry with a couple minor precipitation episodes possible.

6:46AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
A busy week has arrived, busy in terms of shopping, travel, holiday gatherings, and oh yes, weather! And since the latter affects all listed before it, let’s focus on what is expected from it. We start the week with 2 relatively minor low pressure waves coming through. The first one brings a very light snow/rain event this morning, with only minor snow accumulation in higher elevations of north central MA and southern NH while it winds down as patchy light rain elsewhere due to an advance of milder air in the early morning hours. Between waves clouds hang tough and there is no real delivery of cold air, so for the second wave coming in later tonight into Tuesday we will still see marginal temperatures across the region with a rain/snow line expected to be in the I-95 belt from the NH Seacoast area through northeastern MA and then generally along I-90 (Mass Pike) in areas to the south. However this second wave will carry a bit more punch and as low pressure starts to gather strength as it moves offshore, it will drag a little more cold air into the region, and areas that were raining may end as mix and snow. This system will produce generally light snowfall accumulations from Boston north and west, with a few locally moderate amounts in areas that saw the lighter snow this morning, and that is the north central MA and southwestern NH higher elevations. When we get to Wednesday, a strong arctic cold front will be approaching, and while the daytime will be tolerable though chilly and breezy, a shot of unseasonably cold air will be arriving in the evening, just in time for the Thanksgiving holiday Thursday, which will be one of the coldest we’ve seen, along with some wind. A few snow showers or snow squalls are possible as this air mass arrives Wednesday evening, but the holiday itself will be dry and bright despite the chilling cold. High pressure will move right overhead Friday which will be a cold/dry day. If you are planning to be one of those overnight / early morning Black Friday shoppers, you had better be prepared for air that would be colder than normal in January, let alone November. You have been warned! Onto the detailed forecast…
TODAY: Cloudy. Light snow/mix southern NH and north central MA with accumulation of 1 inch or less and light rain/mix elsewhere morning. Isolated light rain showers afternoon. Highs 37-44 except 45-52 southern RI through Cape Cod. Wind light variable except S up to 15 MPH South Coast.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Developing snow/mix central MA and southern NH, mix I-95 belt northwest of Boston, rain to the south and east. Lows 30-36. Wind light NE to N.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow north and west, rain south and east changing to mix/snow. Precipitation ending west to east during the afternoon. Snow accumulation 2-4 inches higher elevations north central MA and southern NH, coating to 2 inches elsewhere except little or nothing southeastern MA and RI. Highs 36-43 morning-midday, falling slightly thereafter. Wind light N to NW.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of black ice. Lows 22-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of passing snow showers/squalls evening. Highs 33-39. Rapid temperature drop at night. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NNW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts evening.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunny. Windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s. Very cold wind chills.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Less wind. Lows from the upper 0s to middle 10s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
Temperatures moderate November 24-26 with a dry start to the period then increased rain chances as 1 or 2 low pressure areas impact the region. Turning colder with a few rain to snow showers otherwise a drying trend November 27-28.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
Overall pattern looks polar jet stream dominated while moisture from the southern jet stream is kept at bay to the south, leaving this area cold and mainly dry with a couple minor precipitation episodes possible.

8:14AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
Every now and then the short term pattern gets away from me and every detail I see is mis-timed or not even that close to what I envisioned. The atmosphere is attempting to subtly pull that trick on me, so this short blog update is an attempt to begin reeling that in, as the biggest problem has not been the medium ranges but the shorter range the last few days. So today just making a few adjustments to reflect unsettled weather through Tuesday instead of just the first half of Monday, and the colder trend for Thanksgiving. The next blog update will go more into detail with all. But for today just an updated detailed forecast…
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Precipitation arriving west to east as snow most areas except rain southeastern MA and southern RI. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch away from the coast east central MA north and west except possibly up to 2 inches in higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 28-35. Wind light variable.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy with episodic rain and snow, with minor additional snow accumulation. Temperatures generally ranging from the lower 30s to lower 40s throughout. Winds light variable Monday, light N Monday night and Tuesday.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Breezy. Evening snow showers possible. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING DAY): Mostly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
Dry November 23-24 with a gradual temperature moderation as high pressure dominates. Low pressure from the west brings the threat of wet weather later November 25 through November 26. Fair and colder weather returns at the end of the period behind this system.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28-DECEMBER 2)
Fair and cold to start the period. Will watch a storm threat around the very end of November but there is a chance a lot of that system passes to the south. Fair and cold to end the period.

7:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)
An inversion in the lower atmosphere (a layer of warm air over a layer of cold air) will support a deck of cloudiness to start today, but this inversion will break down and clouds will break for sun as the day goes on. Sunday will start with sun which will then lose out to clouds advancing ahead of a disturbance approaching New England from the west, so while the days of the weekend are a bit opposite in terms of sky cover, they will be similar in that they are both dry. But by Sunday night and into a portion of Monday, we’ll have some rain and snow around from that disturbance as it passes and ignites a new low pressure area just offshore, but this will be a fairly weak and fast-moving system, and though minor snow accumulation may occur in some locations, nothing will be hanging around and clearing will follow. This will set up a cold pre-Thanksgiving period of weather for Tuesday and Wednesday that may feature a few snow showers due to a passing disturbance Tuesday and a reinforcing cold front arriving later Wednesday, although the weather these days will be largely dry and favorable for shopping and traveling despite the cold. Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-33. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Light rain/snow arriving west to east. Lows 28-36. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Cloudy with rain/snow in the morning, minor accumulation of a coating to 1 inch most likely north and west of a Boston-Providence lien, with up to 2 inches possible in the higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. Clearing during the afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind light variable morning, W 5-15 MPH afternoon.
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of passing snow showers mainly early to middle part of Tuesday and again later Wednesday. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)
Dry but cold and possibly windy for Thanksgiving on November 22 as a delivery of arctic air may be perfectly timed to freeze the holiday. Dry with moderating temperatures following this for the remainder of the extended Thanksgiving weekend. A “Colorado Low” traveling across the country may tap enough Gulf of Mexico moisture to bring a soaking rain to the region by November 26 with fairly mild air in place, but at 10 days out this is not a forecast of high confidence.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
Colder, mainly dry, but a couple threats of snow showers would occur in a pattern dominated by disturbances passing in the polar jet stream dominated pattern.