High pressure builds in today but then retreats slightly north this weekend. While this is occurring, Ian makes one more landfall as a hurricane (category 1) on the South Carolina coast today then moves north northwest into the mountains of North Carolina and Virginia where it weakens over the weekend. We’ve already experienced the high cloud shield from Ian for over 24 hours – it made for a very colorful sunset for some areas yesterday and a nice sunrise for some again this morning. The rainfall from that system is also spreading out and some of it will make a push toward our area for this weekend. The question for several days has been just how much impact, if any, that rain would have. Even when it became clear the low itself would not make the trip directly up this way, we always have to watch for the rain shield in this pattern as it can move quite a distance away from its parenting storm. Right now the best guess is that there will be the most rain right along the South Coast on Saturday, with a lesser chance that rain gets to and north of I-90, and if it does so it would be rather brief and lighter, before moving out. Either way, the cloud shield will be over the region much of the time the next few days, thin enough today that we have some filtered sunshine, but thicker so we have much less sun opportunity tomorrow (with the rain chance present) and maybe thinning out again at least to the north on Sunday. With a northeasterly air flow taking over between Ian’s remnant low and a big high to our north, we may eventually see some lower clouds from the ocean as well at some point during the weekend. Early next week we may still be on the fence as a hang-back low moves out south of our area, and may get close enough later Monday or Tuesday to bring some additional at least light rainfall in to parts of southeastern New England. All the while our temperatures will be running a little below normal as our cooler early autumn regime continues.

TODAY: Sun filtered through high clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain South Coast and a lesser chance of rain in the I-90 belt. Highs 57-64. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain near the South Coast. Lows 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Light rain possible near the South Coast at times. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, gusts up to 30 MPH near the coast.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain Cape Cod / South Coast. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring the South Coast / Cape Cod. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Improving weather middle of next week with clearing and a little milder. Strong cold front follows with a brief shower chance and a return to below normal temperatures after that.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Potential wet weather threat early period, then dry with near to below normal temperatures expected.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-29-2022

An upper level trough will swing through the region during the first half of the day today with a sun/cloud mix for a while mid to late morning as the sun-heated air rises into colder air aloft. I do not expect these clouds to grow enough to produce any showers as their development will be thwarted by the arrival of milder air aloft for the second half of the day. Also during the day today the South Coast region will see a stream of high clouds that once belonged to the outflow of Hurricane Ian, and even as high pressure builds into the region tonight and Friday, we will see more high clouds fanning into our sky that are associated with that system. The storm, which came ashore on the West Coast of Florida Wednesday as a category 4 hurricane, has pretty much completed crossing the peninsula and will emerge off the eastern coast of the state back over water before turning to the north and making another landfall on Friday as a strong tropical storm in South Carolina. While the storm’s impact will be far less severe than what Florida experienced, it will still be a formidable system capable of producing wind damage and flooding rain, as well as some minor to moderate storm surge. This system will then weaken but expand in coverage over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic. The northern edge of its rain shield will make a push toward our South Coast region by later Saturday, but for the most part I expect this system to remain to our south with protective high pressure in place over the weekend and Monday as well. We won’t escape its high cloud shield however, which will limit our sunshine during the day and our star gazing at night.

TODAY: Sun with passing clouds. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun with high clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Limited sun, especially south of I-90. Highs 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A touch of light rain possible South Coast. Lows 47-54. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. A touch of rain possible near Cape Cod early in the day. Highs 58-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially near the coast.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 4-8)

Low pressure to the south may get close enough to deliver a bit of light rain to southern areas at the start of the period. A cold front coming through mid to late period may bring a shower but more notably a shot of very cool, windy weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Potential wet weather threat early period, then dry with near to below normal temperatures expected.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-29-2022

An elongated upper level low pressure area which has been to our west slides across the region and to the east of us today through Thursday as high pressure builds in behind it. The upper low doesn’t have enough for any shower activity so it will just produce some clouds at times today, otherwise fair weather continues with a cooling trend through Friday. Meanwhile Hurricane Ian will batter Florida before moving into the US Southeast and weakening. The big question for our area is whether or not the moisture from that system will ever make it here. It will do so in the form of high clouds at times during the first weekend of October, but for now the overall idea seems to be that the rain will stay well to the south as high pressure remains too strong to allow the system to move far enough north.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 61-68. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Early next week would be the best chance for any remnant rain from Ian to make it into the area, but odds do not favor it with continued mainly dry weather, despite some cloudiness and an easterly air flow between the storm’s remnant low pressure area to the south and high pressure to the north. Dry weather with mostly seasonable temperatures follows this but will have to watch for a Canadian cold front to bring a cool shot late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)

Overall pattern looks dry. A couple of brief precipitation threats from Canadian cold fronts which will keep temperatures near to below normal.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-28-2022

We’re in good shape, weather-wise, in our neck of the woods for the balance of this week. Despite a swath of fairly thick high level clouds that will limit sun this morning in much of our region, a trough to our west will swing through the region without much fanfare through tonight, then head out of here while high pressure builds in through late this week with a cooling trend through Friday before a slight recovery of temperature on Saturday to welcome October.

TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy morning giving way to more sun this afternoon. Highs 68-75. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)

We continue to monitor Hurricane Ian, expected to batter Florida at midweek before moving into the US Southeast and weakening / dissipating later this week. I am still going with the scenario that the moisture from this system does not reach our area and we keep generally dry weather going to finish off the first weekend of October and into early next week, after which there is only a slight chance that some of its rain can sneak into southern areas before being pushed out to sea. A frontal boundary may bring a shower threat and a shot of cool air by the end of the period after a brief warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)

Overall pattern looks dry with a minor shower threat or two front frontal boundaries passing by and variable temperatures with a couple air mass changes including 1 or 2 cool shots from Canada.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-27-2022

September’s home stretch is upon us and we look at its final 5 days here. And it looks like a fairly quiet and mainly dry stretch of weather for us. A warm front went by the region last evening, kicking off a decent patch of showers and thunderstorms in southern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. Today and Tuesday we will have an elongated trough of low pressure centered to our west, and it will be fairly mild with a southwesterly air flow dominating. The only chance of any rainfall comes in the form of spotty, quick-moving showers that may cross some areas later today to early this evening. The trough swings eastward and we see a cooling trend with a shift to a more northwesterly flow during midweek, and as surface high pressure builds in we’ll have a fabulous ending to the month late this week.

TODAY: Variably cloudy including periods of sun. A passing shower or thunderstorm is possible late in the day mainly west of the I-95 belt. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm early. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)

The forecast for a good portion of this period hinges upon the future movement of the remains of Hurricane Ian in the Gulf of Mexico. The possibilities range from wet weather arriving over the October 1-2 weekend to wet weather arriving after the weekend to wet weather never arriving (the third case being one where everything gets shunted to our south). Right now, I’m leaning toward the second and third scenario options with a dry weekend and chance of rain, that may stay south, following that. Much refining of this forecast to come…

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)

This is still a lower confidence forecast based on the uncertainty that precedes it, but leaning toward a dry pattern and variable temperatures including another shot or 2 of very cool air from Canada.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-26-2022

A warm front approaching today will fill the sky with far more clouds than we saw yesterday, when you had to look really hard to find one. We’ve lost some of our wind, and we will definitely be a bit milder today as well. As for the front itself, it’s approach and passage may help trigger a couple patches of light rain mainly well west and north of Boston later today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms can develop before the end of the day mainly south of I-90, but this is a very low chance. There is a slightly better chance of these occurring, although still rather isolated, during tonight. And while this is not going to end up as some “outbreak”, a couple storms that can form have the ability to become strong, so keep an eye out for that. Monday and Tuesday a trough of low pressure will be to our west, and we’ll be in a southwesterly air flow of mild air. The only shot of rainfall is from a possible passing shower west to east across the region late in the day Monday. This trough will push further east and move to a position east of our region by midweek when we remain dry, but with a cool-down.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix, clouds eventually winning out. A patch of light rain may visit some areas well west and north of Boston by later in the day and an isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop south of I-90 as well. Highs 67-74. Wind W to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy including periods of sun. A passing shower is possible late in the day mainly west of the I-95 belt. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible early in the I-95 belt eastward. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 64-71. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

Dry and seasonably cool weather expected for the final day of September with high pressure in control. The remainder of the forecast hinges largely on what happens with TS / Hurricane Ian in the Gulf of Mexico and after a landfall. The scenario I lean toward right now is for high pressure to hang on with dry weather and seasonable to milder temperatures for the October 1-2 weekend, the remains of Ian staying to our southwest and south October 3-4 while the jet stream brings a system in from the west with finally a chance of wet weather by the end of the period. This is very low confidence. Please check back for updates on this.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Not a high confidence forecast again based on the uncertainty that precedes it, but leaning toward a dry pattern and variable temperatures including another shot or 2 of very cool air from Canada, which seem to want to visit early this autumn.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-25-2022

Our weather for the first weekend of autumn will be rather nice overall, but we’ll start it with a little bit of wind chill. While the wind did drop off a bit in some areas overnight, the breeze remained in most, and the rising sun is quickly mixing the air so the gusty breeze is occurring in all areas by mid morning, and coming off low temperature in the 40s, we have wind chills down in the 30s. We’d laugh at this in winter, but when you’re under 48 hours after the end of summer, you’re not quite used to this kind of thing yet. I needed a winter hat late last night for a visit to the sea wall for high tide. First time I have used a winter hat in September that I can recall. Our gusty and cool weather will continue today but under lots of bright sun, so if you have outdoor activities sensitive to wind gusts (yard sale, etc.), keep this in mind! A warm front approaching Sunday will send more clouds in, but despite some guidance indicating rainfall before the end of the day, I am not convinced this happens. There will be a lot of dry air in the atmosphere in the wake of the very large Fiona, now a post-tropical powerhouse moving through southeastern Canada. And while that storm did not directly impact our region, the expanse of dry air around / behind it, is quite large. It will take some time to scour this out, but this upcoming system does have some pretty unstable air with it and it will eventually do so, so that clouds do win out by sometime Sunday night, along with scattered showers and even some thunderstorms in the overnight / early morning hours of Monday. A few of these storms may even be rather potent for this time of year. But despite the instability, the broad trough and low pressure area coming in to start off the week is going to pull in a lot of dry air as well, and despite Monday being an unsettled day with the opportunity for showers, there should also be some sunshine. I was a little more pessimistic feeling about the weather going into Tuesday previously, but today I’m a little less so. While still having a trough nearby, it looks like a main frontal boundary will lie to our south, and another trough to our north and while this is a thread-the-needle forecast for day 4 I feel we have the chance to be in between unsettled areas with dry weather here Tuesday, and a weakened version of the same for Wednesday, with dry weather, just a sun/cloud mix. Confidence is not super-high on those 2 days so don’t lock anything in yet.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind W to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy including periods of sun. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 67-74. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Previously I mentioned a shot of chilly air for the final days of September. I still think we get the cooler air, but because of the orientation of the pattern, the delivery doesn’t blast in here, but rather eases in, so that we get fair weather and cooler air for the last couple days of the month as high pressure builds in from Canada. And then October arrives with uncertainty in the outlook. We’ll be watching Ian, a newly formed tropical storm in the southern Caribbean, which we are pretty sure will become a hurricane and turn to the north impacting western Cuba and threatening an area from the central Gulf of Mexico to the US Southeast, with Florida about mid point in that area. Until we can nail down the track, we won’t really be able to say with any confidence what, if any, its future impact would be on our area. Today’s medium range guidance shows anything from remnant rains from a system that travelled long over land before reaching the Northeast to a stronger version of the storm having crossed Florida and come at least part way up the East Coast. Either of this is possible, but they are not the only possibilities. We could, for example, have a scenario where the remains of the system never get here, turning east and being pushed out to sea but a Canadian high. So there is now “Ian is going to….” with regard to New England impacts down the road. Just know that in the first few days of October we may potentially hear from some form of it – or we may not. Obviously, this part of the forecast will be adjusted accordingly with time.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)

If you have a high degree of uncertainty in the period preceding days 11-15, you are not going to have a whole lot more confidence on the 11-15 day period itself, because a lot of what happens hinges on what happens before. What I can say is that we leave the first part of this period open to influences from some form of Ian’s remains, in a slower-moving scenario. I do think the pattern will support one and possibly 2 shots of chilly air from Canada as well. How it all fits together remains to be seen. Stay tuned…

C-19 Chat Post – 9-24-2022

First, Fiona. I mention this storm before getting to our sensible weather because firstly, its impact on our region in the form of high swells and rough surf will peak today, tonight, and early Saturday, so anybody with plans to be at the shore or in the coastal waters should take note of this. Also, Fiona remains a powerful hurricane, and while it will be weakening gradually and making its transition to post-tropical while motoring toward southeastern Canada, it’s going to strike that region as a very powerful storm. In fact, the transition to post-tropical only helps the wind field expand, even if the overall intensity is coming down. It’s starting at such a high intensity with not much time to go before arriving there, that it will only weaken so much, down to that of about a category 3 hurricane. While Fiona will not be a tremendous rain producer due to its rapid movement, it will be a wind machine and still produce considerable coastal storm surge. Eastern Nova Scotia, P.E.I., and western Newfoundland will be most impacted. Later in the storm’s life, it may produce some snow further north! Back here at home we’re now into our coolest air mass in quite a while, and obviously the coolest air mass of meteorological fall and definitely astronomical fall, which just started hours ago (last evening). Both today and Saturday will feature sun but a share of passing clouds too, especially today, below normal temperatures, and a gusty wind, though the wind should settle down a little bit tonight as the air becomes less mixed and may not be as gusty Saturday as it ends up today. The Canadian high pressure area delivering this air to us will sink to the south and allow us to warm up a little bit Sunday after a chilly start. While I still expect Sunday to be largely rain-free, I do expect clouds to become dominant before the day is over in advance of an approaching trough of low pressure, which will bring us unsettled weather early next week – though not looking like a significant rain producer at this time.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts to near and even over 30 MPH at times.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 67-74. Wind W to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

At the moment I am keeping my outlook of mainly dry weather, a shot of chilly air to start, followed by a moderating trend in temperature later in the period. Wildcard: What goes on in the tropics and how it translates to any possible direct or indirect impact as early as the first days of October. It’s first important to note that medium range guidance is to be taken only as a rough idea, especially when there is no actual low center to initialize on the guidance, and for our newly formed tropical depression in the southern Caribbean, this is just going to start to be the case as of today. Previous runs, including the last set with no low to initialize, still show considerable spread in solutions regarding the eventual hurricane’s impact on the US. These variations can still be present as well after a low forms, but you have a better chance of a better-performing model having a better solution for the system in question. Applying meteorology might then help you decide which piece(s) if guidance show a more realistic possible outcome. So one step forward today with a low center, but still take the guidance lightly if scrutinizing each run. Watch for trends rather than scrutinizing details beyond a few forecast panels.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)

High degree of uncertainty again for this forecast period given the unknown outcome of a tropical cyclone that itself, or the remains of, may eventually impact our region. Whatever happens, we may see quite a shot of chilly air again behind any departing system as the overall pattern may very well favor this again. Long way to go to refine and detail this outlook…