First I would like to re-post a portion of a comment I made on the previous blog…
Media (news directors want this) puts out forecasts of a cold & possibly snowy winter ahead, as do two of the more popular almanacs. And my scientific view point is skewed today by a reliable long range model forecasting warmer than normal weather overall (not every day) for the balance of 2013, right into the winter. Conflicting indications much? Based on that, and common sense, I won’t be issuing an “official” winter forecast until around the middle of November. Call me a coward, but I’m playing it safe. I just have no idea what the upcoming winter will be like. I prefer to focus on the next 7 days, detailing as much as I can the next few days, and generalizing days 4 to 7. This will continue to be a daily practice and I hope you find it useful.
Now, on to that practice…
Lots of clouds and a period of rain visited much of southeastern New England today, and now a warm front has cleared the region, leaving behind only some lingering cloudiness. But the door has been opened to an air mass more typical of the middle of Summer, and Wednesday will evoke a memory of the heat in July that was prevalent for much of the month. But how you can tell this is a late Summer heat blast will be by observing that the sun does not rise so early as it did back in July, and of course that it sets much earlier (7PM versus about 8:20PM) and in a more due west direction instead of the northwest as it did in the longest days. In fact Wednesday’s sunset is the final 7PM or later sunset for the year.
A heat advisory has been posted for Wednesday for most of eastern MA except the South Coast through Cape Cod, and for interior southeastern NH. High temperatures in these areas will be in the lower to middle 90s, and the heat index (how it feels combining heat & humidity) will reach or exceed 100.
With the cold front that will put an end to this heat still located far to the northwest of the area, Wednesday night will be a very warm and humid night, uncomfortable for sleeping for some of you. This is why it’s not always a wise idea to take out and pack up the AC before the end of September.
The cold front may be slow enough that we get through the daylight hours of Thursday with no more than the threat of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, and a main line of showers and storms holding off until sometime at night, possibly late at night. At this time, I am going to go with the main action not reaching the region until after the Pats/Jets game, but anybody going to the game should be prepared for stormy weather, in case it does arrive more quickly than currently expected.
Once the cold front gets into the region it will push sluggishly through during the overnight of Thursday and early Friday morning, with its showers and storms finally pushing to the South Coast and Cape Cod. Lingering rain is expected over eastern MA for a portion of Friday morning as a little wave of low pressure forms on the front just gone by, but it may be somewhat unstable during the afternoon as colder air moves in aloft and sets the stage for additional pop up showers in the afternoon to early evening. It will be turning breezy and much cooler with the air drying out. By Friday night and Saturday, the core of this much cooler air mass will be over southeastern New England, and it will feel more like late September or early October.
Looking ahead: A great finish to the weekend, bright and a little milder by Sunday. A reinforcing cold front comes through Sunday night or early Monday, bringing another shot of chilly air to the region for a brief stand before a new warm-up commences.
Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…
TONIGHT: Areas of low clouds and patchy fog. Humidity increases. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Any low clouds/fog vanish by mid morning otherwise sunny, hot, and humid. Highs 90-95 except 80s South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy. Lows upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny, hazy, hot, and humid. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms but most areas seeing nothing during the day. Highs from the the lower 80s South Coast and Cape Cod to 85-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms arriving from northwest to southeast. Muggy. Lows in the 60s. Gusty SW breeze.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the morning. Variably cloudy with additional isolated to scattered showers during the afternoon. Lowering humidity. Highs in the 70s. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 64.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 73.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 46. High 66.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 71.