For eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…
Three-day synopsis and forecast for the Memorial Day Weekend (Saturday-Monday):
This is a slightly tricky 3-day forecast because of the proximity of a frontal system to the area. This front has moved through from the northwest early this Saturday morning and is now settling near the New England South Coast. A front that close usually means that things can happen, and they will. I think for today, the vast majority of southern New England is rain-free, not too humid, but very warm. We cannot rule out a pop up shower or thunderstorm in parts of RI or over Cape Cod and the Islands due to the front being nearby and some convergence (colliding air masses and/or wind flows that allow air to rise and form showers and storms). Any of this activity that does occur in that area will settle down tonight and expect a quiet but mild to warm night across southern New England.
Sunday, the front will still be sitting just to the south but should remain inactive in terms of showers/storms during the day. I’m optimistic that only some variable cloudiness will be the result of the front sitting there, as warm/humid air to the south starts to ride up and over a slightly cooler air mass to the north. As we often see during the late Spring and Summer, these fronts can be the avenue for a cluster of showers and thunderstorms, and sometimes these are most potent in the overnight and early morning hours with this set-up. This may be the case here in which we see an area of showers and storms (some with heavy rain) moving through from west northwest to east southeast somewhere New England in the overnight hours of Sunday night and early hours of Monday morning. Since I am not sure exactly how widespread such an area would be and its exact track at this point, I am going to just add showers/storms to the forecast for Sunday night and try to pinpoint it as we get closer.
For Memorial Day on Monday, any of that activity should be winding down and moving out via far southern and eastern areas in the early morning, and I believe the front may be able to lift northward allowing much of southern New England to get into more humid and very warm air. I’m not 100% certain this front makes it all the way back through again, and that will determine how much sun comes back during the day and how warm it gets. So this is another day to check back on, but I’ll go the summery route for now. We may see showers and storms later Monday forming in NY and western New England and could see some try to approach at the very end of the day or at night.
TODAY: Sunshine more often than not but some clouds as well. Slight chance of a few showers or thunderstorms in RI and over Cape Cod and the Islands. Highs reach the middle to upper 80s most locations except 70s to lower 80s where winds come off ocean water. Wind W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s valley areas far inland to lower 60s urban areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy, but there will be some sunshine as well, though clouds may tend to win out more toward the end of the day. High from the upper 60s coast and Cape to middle 70s inland. Wind variable mostly E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms mostly after 11PM, some possibly heavy. Low around 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, possibly gusty near storms.
MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9AM especially far southern and eastern areas. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm inland late in the day. High around 80, cooler where winds come off ocean water. Wind becoming SW 10-20 MPH.
Synopsis & forecast for the last 3 days of May (Tuesday-Thursday):
A cold front is expected to slowly move through the region on Tuesday, and may never completely make it through or just wash itself out (like a very weak wave barely making it onto the shore at the beach). Either way there will be enough moisture around for showers and thunderstorms here. What I am not really sure about is how Wednesday and Thursday play out between the remnants of this front and very weak high pressure trying to build in. I think Wednesday is more likely to be the less-fair of the 2 and Thursday stands a better chance of improvement, but take this outlook with a grain of salt for now and check back for more details later. Sorry for being so vague but I just don’t really know how those days are going to turn out yet. 🙂
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 62. High 78.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 60. High 74.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 58. High 73.