Memorial Day Weekend & Last Days Of May

46 Comments

9:16AM

For eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

Three-day synopsis and forecast for the Memorial Day Weekend (Saturday-Monday):

This is a slightly tricky 3-day forecast because of the proximity of a frontal system to the area. This front has moved through from the northwest early this Saturday morning and is now settling near the New England South Coast. A front that close usually means that things can happen, and they will. I think for today, the vast majority of southern New England is rain-free, not too humid, but very warm. We cannot rule out a pop up shower or thunderstorm in  parts of RI or over Cape Cod and the Islands due to the front being nearby and some convergence (colliding air masses and/or wind flows that allow air to rise and form showers and storms). Any of this activity that does occur in that area will settle down tonight and expect a quiet but mild to warm night across southern New England.

Sunday, the front will still be sitting just to the south but should remain inactive in terms of showers/storms during the day. I’m optimistic that only some variable cloudiness will be the result of the front sitting there, as warm/humid air to the south starts to ride up and over a slightly cooler air mass to the north. As we often see during the late Spring and  Summer, these fronts can be the avenue for a cluster of showers and thunderstorms, and sometimes these are most potent in the overnight and early morning hours with this set-up. This may be the case here in which we see an area of showers and storms (some with heavy rain) moving through from west northwest to east southeast somewhere New England in the overnight hours of Sunday night and early hours of Monday morning. Since I am not sure exactly how widespread such an area would be and its exact track at this point, I am going to just add showers/storms to the forecast for Sunday night and try to pinpoint it as we get closer.

For Memorial Day on Monday, any of that activity should be winding down and moving out via far southern and eastern areas in the early morning, and I believe the front may be able to lift northward allowing much of southern New England to get into more humid and very warm air. I’m not 100% certain this front makes it all the way back through again, and that will determine how much sun comes back during the day and how warm it gets. So this is another day to check back on, but I’ll go the summery route for now. We may see showers and storms later Monday forming in NY and western New England and could see some try to approach at the very end of the day or at night.

TODAY: Sunshine more often than not but some clouds as well. Slight chance of a few showers or thunderstorms in RI and over Cape Cod and the Islands. Highs reach the middle to upper 80s most locations except 70s to lower 80s where winds come off ocean water. Wind W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s valley areas far inland to lower 60s urban areas. Wind variable  up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy, but there will be some sunshine as well, though clouds may tend to win out more toward the end of the day. High from the upper 60s coast and Cape to middle 70s inland. Wind variable mostly E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms mostly after 11PM, some possibly heavy. Low around 60. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, possibly gusty near storms.

MONDAY – MEMORIAL DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9AM especially far southern and eastern areas. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm inland late in the day. High around 80, cooler where winds come off ocean water. Wind becoming SW 10-20 MPH.

Synopsis & forecast for the last 3 days of May (Tuesday-Thursday):

A cold front is expected to slowly move through the region on Tuesday, and may  never completely make it through or just wash itself out (like a very weak wave barely making it onto the shore at the beach). Either way there will be enough moisture around for showers and thunderstorms here. What I am not really sure about is how Wednesday and Thursday play out between the remnants of this front and very weak high pressure trying to build in. I think Wednesday is more likely to be the less-fair of the 2 and Thursday stands a better chance of improvement, but take this outlook with a grain of salt for now and check back for more details later. Sorry for being so vague but I just don’t really know how those days are going to turn out yet. 🙂

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 62. High 78.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 60. High 74.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 58. High 73.

46 thoughts on “Memorial Day Weekend & Last Days Of May”

  1. I know that you claim to not know for certain, but you definitely have good instincts and good reason to back up your predictions. I applaud you 🙂

  2. So I’ve already been back into edit this thing 2 or 3 times to fix typos and omissions. Anybody, if you ever see a mistake in a blog, point it out please. I’m a perfectionist but sometimes I rush. 😉

    Also, a little note on the forecast of thunderstorms for Sunday night. If this occurs it may be in the form of an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System). The old designation was MCC (Mesoscale Convective Complex), which I actually like better. I’m old school. 🙂

    What’s an MCS? The short answer is this. It is a cluster of showers and thunderstorms, usually at least 50 and up to a few hundred miles across. They are often found sliding east or southeast just ahead of a warm front or around the eastern side of a high pressure ridge (where it is often not stormy). They almost have a mind of their own, and they also tend to be stronger in the overnight and early morning hours (well after sunset to around sunrise). Not all of these MCS’s bring severe weather, but sometimes they can produce very strong winds and large hail under the right conditions. Regarding this weekend’s potential, I’m not looking for severe weather at this point, but always keep in mind that any thunderstorm, severe by definition or not, can be dangerous. This rule should apply at all times.

  5. fist land falling tropical storm possible as stubtropical storm BERYL is moving southeast towards the Northern florida and southern georgia coastline . then book it up the coast and out to sea. If what i see on some of the models and spegetti charts some have it going to out south sometime next weekend.

    1. last sentence should say that some of the models and speggetti charts have it going to our south next weekend.

  7. We have confirmation on the forecast t-storm threat in the southern portion of the area, specifically RI. There was also a brief but intense downpour in parts of southeastern MA prior to the RI cell.

  8. Still 82 here and calm. System in west CT. Great summer feel day. Hit 89 but didn’t see 90 here

  9. I whish i knew a way to keep mosquitos away from the pool and patio area. bug zapper does not cut it. the tortes do not work. mosquito tablets do not work what will! Also bug spray stinks

      1. When they Re really bad we put fans on the deck. Overkill I know but blows them away. Of course that would require too many fans for a pool

          1. we have so many dragon flies and on top of it we have bats that eate them but still not enought. It is what i have to deal with since there is a whole marshland behind my house.

            1. what colors do you see of dragon flies. I have seen yellow/black ,blue/black, red/black a few green /black and then the two rarest is the black / white and orange. I only see the black /white once or twice a year. the orange i think is some kind of mutation problem or something since i only see one summer then not see it for two years then see it again.

  10. I believe Sunday evening (6pm-midnight) and also Wednesday afternoon showers/tstorms. Have a good weekend 🙂

  11. A mosquito magnet works really well. Start it up in late April or early May and there won’t be a mosquito on the place.

  12. Good Morning! I hope everyone is having a good weekend!
    It looks like the thunderstorm index will get a bit of a workout the next couple of days. My initial thoughts are areas with the best chance of seeing severe storms will be CT River Valley west so those areas get a 2. Everyone else I am giving a 1 since the threat of severe storms is not that high. Will see if the 2 line has to be extended eastward or the 1 line has to be extended westward. I don’t see a big severe weather event with this.

  13. Good morning and wow it is lovely! Sun is out and air is drier and there’s a light breeze

    Any thoughts on timing for the storms tonight. We are having a cookout in Uxbridge and then will head back here Timing from start to end will run 2-7:30ish. Thank you!

    2. Matt is correct. Today will be a great outside day. I’m heading to Hampton Beach NH for most of the afternoon & evening (ending with fireworks display). Ocean air expected there but not too chilly. 🙂

      2. i was planning on going there with some friends but instead i am stuck doing a fence on this awsome sunday. parents said i could not go :(….. :<

        1. 🙁

          I can’t get close enough to dragon flies to see color but think black and white

          Fisher cat was outside our bedroom window at 4:00 am serenading us – ugh

          1. they are probably the black and yellow. black and white are rare but not as rare as the orange ones.

            1. I Was thinking there was a yellow tinge but was looking into sun so want sure. Fisher has been seen by at least one neighbor every night. Actually heard not seen

          2. also if there is a fisher cat outside your bedroom get ready for it to come by every week.

  14. I’d like to go on record that anyone who says shoveling snow is a lot of work is more than slightly confused. There is sooooo much more work to spring and summer.

    Just sayin!

  15. No change in thunderstorm index late Monday Tuesday. CT River Valley West to me is the spot where level 2 activity is possible which is MODERATE since there is a threat of some severe weather out in that area. Everywhere else I am going with a 1 since the threat of severe weather is not as great but I would not rule out some strong storms. Heavy rain will be one of the bigger threats with atmosphere loaded with moisture.
    Will see how this plays out and adjust if needed.

  16. I’ve been watching for anything around here but nothing. Some smallish cells just moving toward CT from NY and a larger area in PA. Thanks JJ

  17. Has anyone else noticed the massive amounts of thick bright yellow pollen in the air collecting on any surface, esp cars? It seems like wherever it’s coming from has just come out in the past 2 days. Thought it was just isolated to my neighborhood but was in 3 places today, 20-30 miles apart and the same pollen all over everything. I could even see moving through the air driving on 95 today.

    1. Had to clean deck table 3 times today but could have done more. Everything else might have been early but pollen right on time.

  18. tropical storm beryl is a strong tropical storm about to hit florida/georgia coastline with winds at max 70mph minimal central pressure at 993MB moving west at 6 mph. slow moving storm and i would not be surprise that people see hurricane force winds.

    1. Beryl has been a tough little storm that has had some “punch.” A lot of areas got hit with mega -rain.

  19. The good news with Beryl it is provided some much needed rainfall to places that really need the rain. Its not a drought buster for those areas but every little bit helps.
    Back here western parts of SNE keep an eye to the sky later this afternoon and this evening for the POSSIBLITY of thunderstorm development. I am not thinking a widespread severe weather event which is why I am not giving a 3 for those areas but some severe weather is possible out there. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and hail look to be the primary threats. Further east only a 1 since the threat of severe storms is much lower but I would not rule out some strong storms.

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