Memorial Day Forecast Update

111 Comments

7:31AM

“They gave their tomorrows for our todays.” Please pause to remember them.

I apologize for the lack of a week ahead post last night. Spent most of the afternoon and evening in NH. This update will cover through next weekend.

The one change the previous forecast will be the lower temperatures for today because of the front still across the area, keeping the 80 degree temperatures that I was anticipating off to the south and west of much of the forecast area. One trade-off is that with a more marine-stabilized layer of air, there is less of a chance of showers and thunderstorms today.

This will not be the case later tonight through Tuesday and into Wednesday, as a slow-moving front will push through the area.

High pressure will bring drier weather Thursday and Friday before another low and frontal system brings a shower threat for the early part of the weekend.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Lots of clouds but intervals of sun. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are most likely near 495 in areas mostly south of the Mass Pike to around northern RI. High ranging from the 60s coast to the upper 70s inland areas south of the Mass Pike. Wind variable but often E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms, with the most likely time periods 11PM to 4AM overnight tonight, midday and afternoon Tuesday, morning and early afternoon Wednesday. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s. Wind 5-15 MPH mostly S through Tuesday shifting to W Wednesday.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 73.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 52. High 71.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 58. High 68.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 72.

111 thoughts on “Memorial Day Forecast Update”

  1. Thanks TK and thank you to all this brave men and women who are serving or have served to make possible what we have in this country.
    A good portion of SNE in the slight risk zone for severe weather with the exception of the eastern parts of SNE.
    The breakdown in the slight risk zone
    15 % both hail and wind
    2% tornado and if one were to develop I am think it is low it would be an a weak one EF 0 EF 1. Certainly the setup for tornadoes is not what it was last June 1st.
    Thunderstorm Index Worcester westward I am giving a 2 which is MODERATE since there is a threat of some severe weather but I don’t see a widespread severe weather outbreak. East of Worcester I am going with a 1 which is MINOR since I think the threat of severe storms is low for those areas but I would not rule out a strong thunderstorm.
    The humidity is coming up so and the sun is out so there is instability to fuel the thunderstorms. Now it is just watch and see what happens.

                1. tenting is awsome. Listening to the crickets and some other animals while having a campfire. playing cards at night then hearing the birds in the morning when you wake up the only bad thing about tenting is that if you have to much rain. there goes the tent water gets through the bottom.

              2. Just makes me smile. We didn’t camp in a tent but we did in an RV. And I know it’s not the same thing at all but closer than not. I have so many great memories of sitting at night by the fire just talking to the kids or listening to nature.

  4. Special weather statement just came out. Keep an eye to those especially central and western parts of SNE. As I said earlier I think some MODERATE level activity is possible in those areas meaning some severe weather nothing widespread.
    weather.gov
    National Weather Service

    Watches, Warnings & Advisories
    Local weather forecast by “City, St” or zip code

    Special Weather Statement

    ——————————————————————————–

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    1234 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

    CTZ002>004-MAZ002>021-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-282100-
    BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-
    EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
    EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-EASTERN KENT RI-
    EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-NEWPORT RI-
    NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-
    NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
    SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
    SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-WASHINGTON RI-
    WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
    WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
    WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
    1234 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012

    …SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
    TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…

    ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
    AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
    TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE MOST LIKELY
    AREAS INCLUDE CONNECTICUT…WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS…AND
    SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

    STORMS WILL BE TRIGGERED BY A COMBINATION OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
    MEANDERING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND AN UPPER LEVEL
    DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…AND ON
    RARE OCCASIONS CAN PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES. VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
    WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

    STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
    LATEST INFORMATION.
    I would not be surprised to see a severe thunderstorm watch issued for parts of SNE this afternoon.

  5. Why isn’t there a six flags closer, we would go much more if it was around here, we used to go to six flags 5 or 6 times a year when we were outa state but it was only 20 min away. Have a good day everyone 🙂

    1. I love that oil derick at the one in dallas. When I was a kid we would go down there for a couple days every month or so in the summer.

      1. We lived 20 min away in a city called Lewisville, they love hurricane harbor too, I only brought this up bc the kids were asking and it’s more of trip u gotta plan outs supposed to just waking up and spontaneously just go.

        1. Charlie I think that’s why I don’t understand. Most of what we did with our kids was spontaneous. We called it adventure. We had them at least monthly They still all have regular adventures.

          1. I’m not going to drive an hr in a half to the berkshires to spontaneously go, it’s gotta be 30 min or less, it’s to bad they didn’t build it in the Boston Providence area, im sure they would have fought that proposal too, it should be off 495 somewhere, maybe Marlboroish area, but then again it would prolly take a lifetime to get the proposal through, anyways 🙂

    2. Charlie why do I have a feeling if you lived next to it you’d want the ocean to be closer ;). And it is not that far away.

      1. Not a big ocean guy, but the kids love six flags, and I can get to the ocean in 30 min Vicky 🙂

  6. Looking west, I can see some tall cumulus clouds on the fairly clear western horizon and looking east, racing inland are lots of dark, thin stratus clouds. The fog is probably not far behind.

  7. So for tomorrow, the 12z EURO has 80+ all the way to the coast, while the NAM, as well as the 00z EURO, has parts of the coast line struggling to reach 70 degrees…

  9. Matt the dragon flies are black and clear. Can I assume that’s different from black and white?

    1. black and white can be pretty much clear to a pure white. I have a feeling you have alot of rare dragonflies. get pics!

      1. Oh dear. We had enough trouble getting close enough to see let alone take a pic My daughter got closer and had young eyes so I was confident in her colors. Only camera I have is my iPhone. If I tell my husband I have to buy a camera to take pictures of a dragon fly I’m not sure how he will react. I’ll work on it tomorrow.

  10. Well it stayed dry with no thunderstorms for Memorial Day. To me the ingredients were there for thunderstorm development but we just did not have that trigger. Way off with the thunderstorm forecast today and all I can say is I’ll try to do better the next time.

  11. Thanks Vicki.
    I would not rule out thunderstorms for the overnight but I think the threat of severe weather is very low so any thunderstorms do form overnight I am giving a 1 since they will remain below severe levels. Tomorrow areas west of the CT River Valley have a shot at seeing some severe weather so a 2 for those areas and a 1 for everyone else.

  12. We still got plenty of time for thunderstorms during the next couple of months.
    Its hard to believe Friday June 1st is 1 year since those tornadoes struck Massachusetts. I’ll never forget that day and seeing a tornado on television in New England caught on camera going over the CT River. I had a feeling there were going to be big thunderstorms with the warm front that came through during the morning and the sunshine that followed for hours allowing the atmosphere to become more unstable. I never thought we would be talking about destructive tornadoes.

    1. I actually got goosebumps reading your post. I can still see that pic in my mind I think if we go back that those here (not me but those in the know) saw it coming before the tv mets. And on that note I miss old salty. I know everyone here sees the tornado potential but he has a sort of sixth sense

  14. Good Morning all 🙂 Hope everyone enjoyed their Memorial Day weekend, and thanks TK for your thoughtful quote. Wondering how intense the storms could become later today.
    Sorry moderator… posted with my real name instead of username, shotime.

    1. I think areas west of Springfield will have the bigger thunderstorms today and the chance of some severe weather which
      is why I am going with a 2 for that area. Everywhere else is a 1 since I think the threat of severe storms is very low.

    2. I took care of the other comment. I assume you prefer your username to appear versus your real name. 🙂

  17. More temps to the post above……Watertown, NY…….Watertown, NY !!!!!!! is 79F and Syracuse is 80F. Look at the action in northern New England this morning…..this might become an interesting later part of the day down here, assuming the fog burns off and some of the amazing warmth in NY State makes it in here.

  18. I thought for sure we would get some showers over the weekend holiday. The pollen down here is the worst I have ever seen it. You can see it in the air like a light and fluffy 22 degree snowfall. Poor a bucket of water on your drive way and the water turns green, not to mention my truck has turned green. I hope we get some kind of shower activity today.

    1. I have a black car and washed it off on Saturday. Yesterday it was literally yellow again. Last year it didn’t seem as bad although I’m not positive. Year before it was horrible. Still think it’s odd that as early as everything budded that the pollen is right on time instead of early too.

      1. I could be wrong but I think the recent pollen explosion is from Pine. I have a lot of very tall pine trees in my neighborhood and as I looked up into the trees just after dusk last night I could see these little bright yellow spots high up in the trees.

        1. Vicki I have a black vehicle too and you can see everything on it. Ace, I am surrounded by Oaks and Pine Tree’s. It must be the pines. I have a friend who lives on Bay Road and he cut all of his pines down so he could have a large lawn. There are tons of them out by you.

          1. We have a pine forest behind too. It’s not landing on the deck table as a dust any more. It is literally landing in clumps. I don’t know if pine pollen affects those suffering from allergies as much as other pollens. I sure hope not.

          2. Yea there are a ton of pines in my area, one of the things I loved about it when i moved there end of last summer. I like the woodsy feel. I know Bay Road well, have spent many of days at Borderland walking the trails and playing disc golf.

            Happened to stumble upon some interesting info on pine pollen. Apparently, it has some powerful medicinal properties, dating back 2,000 years in Chinese and Korean Medicine. To think, something that creates so many allergy problems for so many people could actually be beneficial.

        2. ahhhh I think you are absolutely correct. The man who lives next to my daughter is a bee keeper and told her a month ago that pollen was very limited for his bees which made me wonder what this was all about. Thanks, AceMaster!

  19. Looking at the storm reports this morning got some hail reports for Northern New England. You could see where the cold front is back out in the midwest firing showers and thunderstorms. Going to finally get RELIEF here on Thursday. One way I find helpful in knowing whether is the day will be humid is look at the overnight low. The lower the number the drier the air. When the lows are in the mid 60s and higher your going to have an uncomfortable day.

  21. Slight risk for severe weather has just been expanded to include a good chunk of SNE with the exception of areas at or near the coast. I am still thinking west of CT River Valley has the best shot at seeing strong and possibly severe storms. Yesterday the ingredients were there for severe storms to form across parts of the interior but we did not get a trigger. It will be interesting to see what happens later today into tonight because certainly is pretty humid and unstable the kind of stuff thunderstorms where the thunderstorms can grow.

  22. To build on what JJ is saying above…..at 10am….

    Albany, NY is 82F with a dewpoint of 72F !!!
    Westfield, MA is in the upper 70s, with a dewpoint of 70F.

    I’m not sure about the upper level support/dynamics, but there is blazing sun out in eastern NY State and western New England. If there’s anything to cause lift, then this afternoon in those locales should be wild.

    I have a feeling eastern New England is going to reach its high temps very late this afternoon, early this evening and overnight tonight is going to be exceptionally warm, with most areas not getting below 70F.

    1. Tom I am thinking those areas could have some MODERATE level activity. The ingredients just like yesterday are there
      for thunderstorm development. A good chunk of the northeast is in a slight risk for severe weather today. I do expect
      somewhere in that slight risk area a severe thunderstorm watch will go up sometime later today.

  23. The clouds are hanging tough. We have a temp of 68.6 and DP of 67 with RH 82. Light but steady breeze

  24. Just looked at a house in NC for 289,000, here it would be around 6-700,000 wow!! Alot of decisions in 12/13 🙂

    1. I believe NC home prices were hit much harder than ours by collapse – not a bad time at all to buy there. Good luck!

      1. If I decide too my parents will move down there next summer and now my brother and wife and 3 kids want to move there with us so it makes it easier but idk

  25. Already a severe thunderstorm watch posted for parts of western NY and PA. I would not be surprised if there are more watches to the east to include parts of New England.

    1. I would bet a watch would be eminent seeing that these storms are forecasted to effect new england today.

  26. Sun has been out in blackstone valley area for over an hour. Still completely overcast in Framingham

  28. Just reading the latest discussion from the storm prediction center and an upgrade to a moderate risk of severe weather may happens for parts of eastern NY and parts of western New England.

  30. Here is East. US satellite loop – note large clearing area between front and extreme eastern MA – though sun having hard time coming out in Sudbury. But I am sure within the hour or less we too will have more sunshine. Also note Beryl on satellite loop – seems kind of weird – Beryl still holding her shape over land – like a hurricane over the land!

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html

  32. If your in eastern mass I feel that today/tonight might be a day where you watch the radar relentlessly in hopes we will get a storm. The radar will light up like crazy just west of us but when the storms hit 95/24 they will fizzle out before you get a drop.

  33. No storms in eastern mass. It’s too cold. I’m in Cambridge and its windy, foggy and darn chilly with the wind off the water. I have my doubts if it hits 70 degrees right near the coast.

  34. Radar lighting up like a Christmas tree parts of NY and PA and am not surprised there was an upgrade just west of New England to a moderate risk giving what we are seeing so far. I don’t think we have seen the last of the watches today.
    Berkshire County where that tornado watch is up I am upgrading to a 4 since there is the threat of tornadoes in that area. These are the only times I issue a 4 when there is that threat of a tornado. Just east of Berkshire County to about the CT River Valley I am sticking with a 2 since there will be the threat of some severe weather and a 1 past that since I think the threat of severe storms will be low for those areas.
    This is a changing situation and more upgrades might have to be made as the day progresses.

  36. Interesting…..surface winds have switched to NE along the coast from Boston points north. There is still a warm bubble of air in far southeast Mass (low 80s) and west of Worcester is blazing hot…….high 80s to low 90s with dp’s in the low 70s.

    You know…..I dont think the jet stream is anywhere near as intense as it was a year ago on June 1st, however…..this morning in northern New England, the warm front was quite active (like it was last year in southern New England) and then the warm sector was quite hot Worcester westward, while it was cooler in the eastern half of New England. I remember those cells just falling apart so quickly once they hit the eastern third of the state.

    In some ways, today and last June 1st seem to almost have some similarities to this point. Hopefully for the afternoon, today’s weaker jet stream will not form anywhere near the intensity of supercells that produced those tornadoes.

  37. I think as log as the frontal boundary remains where it is any storms marching east will quickly fizzle out. The boundary seems to be in the vicinity of the city of Worcester. I was out an hour ago and the wind was coming from the Northeast.

    1. I think it will remain where it is and may retreat a bit further inland. Using Marshfield as an example, the wind had come around to S/SE and the sun had fully burnt off everything. Now, the wind has backed to the NE, its mostly cloudy and the low clouds are moving inland from NE to SW.

      Just looking at the regions that are hot vs. those that are not, I’d guess up to Worcester and the northern third of CT are prime for being hit, Worcester to the 495 belt will experience dying storms or a few heavy rain-showers and the immediate coastline might not see much.

  38. I could be wrong, but this thunderstorm watch is going to be a bust. Maybe out west of worcester county they might see a few, but nothing major. By the time that front gets here, they will all be fizzed out, IMO. Even if we see some in worcester county, they wont amount to much. The air is too cool and theres not enough time to warm it up. As i said, i could be wrong. But watching these things for 40+years where they get real thunderstorms, i dont think its in the cards today.

  41. It is absolutely sweltering here in Hartford today. We are up to 92 with a dewpoint of 70 and a heat index of almost 100. I am frankly quite surprised that we do not have an excessive heat advisory in effect. It is very hard for me to comprehend that you are cloudy and only in the 60’s in eastern MA!

    I would be surprised if we didn’t get in on some strong to severe t-storm action in CT and west/central MA later today. The radar to the west is lit up like a christmas tree. Numerous severe T-storm warnings in effect and now two active tornado warnings as well….one in the Adirondacks and one in northern VT.

  42. Good afternoon. Doing a full blog update after 4PM. Crazy week with a family wedding coming up!!

    Short term update: Low clouds hanging tough in northeastern MA and nearly southeastern NH, starting to erode but it looks like one more push off the ocean could prolong them in some areas.

    Thunderstorms: They are going to have a rough time getting to 495. I don’t expect any severe weather and any storms that try to come across the barrier of 495 north of the Pike through early evening will likely weaken and die out. We’ll see what makes it in here later tonight but I am not expecting a great deal from that either (maybe some heavy downpours). I’ll re-evaluate the situation during my upcoming blog update.

    Hope to post it by 4:45PM. Have a great afternoon!

  43. As soon as the front passes through central Mass they will begin to rain themselves out, anyone west of 495 is fair game for thunderstorms, I don’t expect much severe weather around here 🙂

  45. Blue sky 77 with 65 dP. Less humid and really lovely air here compared to this morning. Wind light out of N/NE? Seems far too stable here to expect anything

  46. Your right Vicki and thunderstorms do not like stable air. The air is anything stable further to the west with the radar lighting up like a Christmas tree and saw a tornado warning up for northern Vermont.

  47. Ok – it is 68 degrees in Sudbury. I stepped outside for the first time today, expecting some heat. It’s cool outside! I can’t tell which way the wind is blowing ’cause it is so light. Hard to believe that it is so hot in other areas of the state and New England. Lots of temperature variations!

  48. No way T-storm can survive that marine layer we have in eastern sections. It acts to stabilize the atmosphere. Next!!

    The pollen is beyond awful!! We need rain to clear it out.

    1. Hadi, I agree – I wouldn’t mind a brief but heavy rain shower – my allergy has been awful all wknd.

  49. 92 degrees, 71 dewpoint, and a heat index of 100 now at Bradley International compared to Boston’s 66 and cloudy (sorry Brad!)

    Even a more amazing temperature differential: it is 68 in Marshfield while just 30 miles away in Taunton, it is 88 with a heat index of 95!! Even Martha’s Vineyard has escaped the marine influence and has topped 80.

    1. Mark. Rainshine and I are not more than 5 miles apart I’d guess and we have a 10 deg difference.

  50. Vicki – I don’t have an outside thermometer. I am going by the Google website which now says 73 degrees with the wind out of the east. Also, we have a lot of pine trees around and I was in the shade. I suppose the sun is hot but it certainly doesn’t feel warm and humid here – rather nice.

  51. The NAO is in the fish tank, and the EURO is clearly picking up on it…
    June may be a struggle around here.

    2. It has supposedly been in the tank all of Memorial Day weekend through today, yet most of interior SNE (at least areas outside of 495) was still well into the 80’s the entire weekend!

  52. Tornado warning in upper VT. And one just about to expire in NY. All sorts of warnings along that front

  53. Question – the storms are still far away. Is there a chance that the winds could switch and we wouldn’t be protected by the marine layer by the time the storms reached here?

  54. You got another line in Central PA and NY with severe thunderstorm warnings on those. They actually expanded that tornado watch a little further south to include the Poukipsse NY area right up to the western border of CT.

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