Temperature Contrast, T-storms, Then What?

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5:09PM

Big temperature range across New England this Tuesday afternoon from the upper 50s to the lower 90s (coolest being in coastal Maine and hottest being interior southwestern New England). This, and a cold front approaching from the west, are triggers for thunderstorms. And indeed there have been some firing up during the afternoon, mainly across NY State and parts of VT into NH. A marine layer has held low clouds in for much of the day up until mid afternoon over a large portion of Middlesex and Essex Counties of MA and adjacent NH, but this has eroded away finally. However, this marine layer has been tough to get rid of, and remains in place. This will be a factor in limiting the storm potential for much of eastern MA for this evening. As storms try to  move in this direction, they will likely weaken and eventually fall apart. The warmer and more humid air has made it into parts of southeastern MA away from the immediate shore, but by the time any storms get into this region in the overnight hours, it will have cooled down and the atmosphere will not be too unstable there. So this means that most of the WHW forecast area of southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI, will not see any severe weather tonight. There will be some chance of storms, however, with the primary window of time being 9PM tonight to about 4AM Wednesday. Any storms may produce heavy rain and of course some lightning.

We still have to get the front to clear the region and another trough on Wednesday, so during the day there will still be some chance of showers and thunderstorms. The final trough will be moving offshore Thursday morning which will set the stage for 2 great days Thursday and Friday as high pressure dominates. Some clouds may return before Friday is done, in advance of the next low pressure system. This is expected to cross the region Saturday with some showers, though at this time it does not look like a widespread rain event. Sunday, we may see a few pop up showers as a cool upper level low crosses New England.

Updated forecast for southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

THROUGH EVENING: Clouds increase. Temperatures ranging from the 60s coastal northeastern MA, NH, and Cape Cod, to the lower 80s southwest of Boston. Wind variable from light onshore near the coast to S-SW around 10 MPH inland areas.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms, a few possibly heavy. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH may be gusty around any storms.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may occur at any time but are most likely from late morning through late afternoon. High around 80 most areas, holding in the upper 60s to lower 70s where winds come off ocean water. Wind W-SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny early, then mostly sunny. High 70-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 77.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 60. High 72.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 58. High 68.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 53. High 70.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 71.

82 thoughts on “Temperature Contrast, T-storms, Then What?”

  2. I think it can be seen on radar….a wind shift working up through eastern Mass…..just a couple of hours ago, it was 72F in Plymouth with a breeze off the ocean, now it’s 82F with a southerly breeze. Coastal temps may be fun to watch next several hours. Maybe Logan gets to 80F yet.

    1. It’s gotten cooler here in the NW suburbs again. Slightly stronger ocean breeze and also a canopy of clouds blowing off from storms in NH…

      1. Not only that, now we have low clouds starting to come back in from the east, and not just a few.

        1. Interesting……since about 6:30pm, we have been in the warm sector with a steady SW wind and tropical warmth and humidity.

  3. i was hoping for warmer temperatures next week expecially on the 4 and how about this friday night. any chance of showers. I have prom that night.

  4. Golf ball size hail and 70 mph winds reported with severe T-storm that just moved through Killington.

    1″ diameter hail reported in severe T-storm that just moved through Schenectady and Albany counties in eastern NY.

    1. What you are looking at it precipitation underneath the blow-off from the tops of the storms. That stuff is not reaching the ground. It is a common occurrence and easily picked up by NWS’s radars.

  6. It looks like there is a forest fire near by my house. The wind started to blow around and the pollen looks like smoke. I’ve never experienced anything like this.

  7. Hey TK…Keeping my fingers crossed that those showers for Saturday are “widely” scattered. I will be outside most if not all of that day. The other tv mets and NWS are now hinting at a complete washout for Saturday. I really hope that forecast changes…radically. 🙁

    Also, that nice stiff ocean breeze is really saving central and eastern SNE from a repeat of last June 1st! 🙂

  8. Overcast here now and more humid feeling. Air is absolutely still for first time today. Temp still high 70s

    1. Still in the 60’s here in Boston (64 at Logan). Gotta love that stable air over most of us compared to last year this time when it was a land breeze throughout all of SNE including the coastline. Hopefully the Berkshires will get through this relatively unscathed.

  10. Radar estimate showing about 8″ of rain just north of Keene, NH, all from today’s storms.

    1. A friend in new Ipswich NH just said sun never came out there and has been cool all day. But very Humid

  11. I have never seen the pollen this bad. It is just a haze of pollen moving through the air. It is so discusting.

    2. I just looked out the window and thought it was drizzling. It was pollen in the air. And hi 😀

    3. Hi John! 🙂 Looks like a yellow haze outside – I don’t remember seeing the pollen this bad in years.

      1. Hi rainshine yes it is bad. Very warm night here and looks like a storm is knocking at the door. I welcome it. I really don’t remember seeing pollen moving through the air like I saw tonight.

  13. I was watching Henry Margusity’s morning video and noticed a blossoming area just south of Cuba. Is this a potential “Chris”??

  14. Doppler radar seems to show line of storms sinking southeasterly. I wouldn’t be surprised to see storms/rain here by 9:00 – unless it falls apart.

    1. 9PM is my target time for Metro Boston, but it will certainly be in much weakened form by then. Lower 60s and wind straight off the water at Boston does not bode well for the survival of these storms in their current state anywhere close to the coastline.

        1. Some, but probably not a great amount. I’d be floored if these things cut into the marine layer with any vigor.

  15. The storms have peaked out. From here, other than small-scale, brief intensification of individual cells, it’s a weakening trend.

          2. Absolutely ! :). 10 more school days, calendar wise, it’s June 12th…..the benefit of no snow days.

  16. Maybe no severe storms as the night goes on – but there is a lot of rain to the west according to the radar.

    1. Most of that won’t get in here, and here is the reason:

      The surface-based convection, or the bottoms of the storms, start moving more to the east with time, but once they die out, there is nothing left to move east. The precip left in the upper and middle levels move more to the northeast with the upper winds and so not much ever gets that far to the east…

  17. some strong wind is out there right now weather station is reporting 35-40 gusts sustained at 10-15

  18. It’s so close to Logan….Blue Hill has a SW wind and is in the upper 70s…..Logan’s wind is calm….of course, it’s possible there could be outflow boundaries moving southward from the storms, so Logan’s temp should be interesting the next hour or two.

  21. The end of the month temp anomalies are going to be quite different btwn Hartford and Worcester…..as compared to Logan. I suppose this is normal in springtime, being on top of the cold Atlantic. Where Logan’s current anomoly for the day is nearly avg, Worcester and Hartford both have daily anomalies well above +10F for the day and they already had greater monthly temp anomalies than Logan before today.

    1. Worcester and Hartford at +3.7F and +3.9F, while Logan only at +2F. (not including today). It has “seemed” cooler on May, but I guess not.

      1. Reviewing data…Logan was below normal tempwise first 8 days of the month, but has been at or above avg 18 of the last 20 days. During the last six days, the lowest temp has been 56F with many lows 60F or a little better. However, there hasn’t been a lot of diurnal temp change at Logan due to seabreezes, but Worcester and Hartford have seen much higher daytime highs.

  22. Based on the latest radar, all that rain in western & northern NE isn’t moving east. I am now beginning to wonder if it will just rain itself out in place and very little if any will occur for 495 east to Boston.

    TK, is this meteorologically possible?

    1. Yes. I explained a little about that above.

      But there is a piece of the southern part of the line that has survived enough to get inside 495.

  23. Can see faint lightening to the west. Philip it seemed to slow down considerably about 1.5 hrs ago. There was a bit holding together but sitting over the monson area but it’s approaching Worcester now which is the lightening I see

    1. Neat………yet another windshift in Marshfield….back to the east and northeast…I’m guessing the temp just fell 5 to 10F in a matter of a minute.

      1. Ah…Blue Hill just lost 10F as well with a windshift. Without a drop of rain yet, today has been fascinating here as we have gone back and forth with boundaries and have experienced multiple airmasses within a several hour period.

        1. That is neat Tom. When I left work in Quincy it was about 76, I cam down 95 and it went up to 88!

  24. Severe thunderstorm warning for metrowest area. Can see lightning to the west and can hear some thunder. Looks like it’s entering Hudson area – not too far from Sudbury.

      1. Those storms near Worcester are hanging tough. In fact, just south of Worcester, a cell seems to be strengthening.

  25. Lightening is incredible. May be a bit north of us but u may get it rainshine. Wind picking up too. Can hear thunder now. Moving quickly

  26. Storm has broken into two cells – strongest seems coming over Sudbury area. More thunder now – lots of lightning – waiting for the rain.

    1. Now it’s back to one storm cell – looks like it might weaken as it continues east. It’s fun just watching it – not much wind. If there were more wind, I wouldn’t want to be too close to window, especially at night. I like daytime thunderstorms better – you can see more of what’s going on!

  28. Well that was fun. Tons of rain and vivid lightening and claps of thunder. Have colonoscopy tomorrow. This was a nice diversion 😀

    2. Good luck, tomorrow, Vicki. My husband is going for his on Thurs. He goes on liquid diet and starts the “fun” tomorrow night with the prep.

      Yes, the storms did move fast but I think there is still more rain coming. I am watching Todd Gutner on TV38 and as long as there isn’t anything severe the rest of the night – I am calling it a night!

      1. Thank you for the well wishes!! Rainshine, will be thinking of your husband. Something insulting about having to drink that stuff at 5:30 in the morning.

    1. I’m still amazed at how quickly it moved in and out after watching it nearly sit west of Worcester a good portion of the evening. It was like a sling shot!

  31. My friend in New Ipswich NH said parts of NH had quarter size hail and 100 mph winds and 7 inches of rain in short period of time. Roads around Keene had to be shut down.

  32. “which will set the stage for 2 great days Thursday and Friday”

    Hey I wonder if Thursday and Friday are good actors? 😉 Hahaha, do you think they’ll make it to Broadway??? 😀 hahahahaha

    Thanks TK! And thanks for putting up with my lame jokes!

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