DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

Watch for some areas of black ice where “‘unscheduled” snow showers occurred with some light accumulations late last night, mainly to the west and northwest of Boston. These snow showers were a product of an advective inversion that formed some clouds and produced just enough lift to squeeze out some moisture into the air cold enough for snowflakes. They were not in anybody’s forecast. This is a good reminder that even with our “very good” short range guidance, we can still sometimes miss short-term events. Any icy areas will sublimate / melt / dry quickly during this morning. This last day of November will be a dry and chilly one with a gusty breeze as we sit in a northwesterly air flow, and this will be the theme tomorrow as well to round out the Thanksgiving Weekend. We may see a few more high and/or mid level clouds tomorrow due to a disturbance passing to our south. The dry and chilly pattern will continue early next week. By Wednesday, a clipper-type low pressure area diving through the Great Lakes will move quickly our way and bring the first general snowfall threat of the season by evening. This is highly unlikely to end up anything more than a minor event, but some accumulation of snow is a solid potential, and even a light coating will cause slippery travel conditions, but this is at the end of the 5-day forecast period so plenty of time to do the obvious fine-tuning.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding up. Chance of snow (except rain or snow coastal areas) late-day or nighttime. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 5-9)

Low pressure departs and windy/cold weather follows early in the period. High pressure builds in with cold but more tranquil weather after that.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 10-14)

2 potential storm systems to watch as we head to mid December. Climatology says greatest chance of snow will be inland areas, but will take a closer look with the real-time set-up as we get closer.

INTRODUCTION

While last year’s general idea was in the ballpark, we saw an under-performance of an already fairly conservative snowfall forecast, and some of the other forecast details turned out a little different, but the idea of a not-too-harsh winter was certainly on the right track. So now we move to prognosticating pattern potential for winter 2024-2025. Is this the year the “classic New England winter” returns? Or are we in for another version of what we’ve seen the last few winters? Or something in between? Or a “big winter”? These are the questions I attempt to answer in this outlook, so let us go forth and forecast!

OVERVIEW

Where last year’s main player was El Nino, the indications are we’ll be eyeing a weak La Nina this winter following the currently ENSO neutral conditions. For snow lovers, the MJO has been an enemy of you during the last several winters, so we’ll look at that to see if it may play more favorably for at least providing better opportunity for something to happen. The big indices such as PDO, AO, NAO, AMO, PNA will all be considered as usual, and predicted as best as we can see then playing out. And don’t forget about QBO too! I’ll remind you what these all mean as we get to each of them, and the type of influences they typically have. Keep in mind, no single index drives the entire pattern. It’s a combination, and with so many indices in play, the number of combinations is high. The aim here in the seasonal forecast is to try to identify the major players and their expectations, then try to fit that together into a refined pattern outlook. Also, not to be forgotten will be the ongoing, long-lasting Hunga Tonga volcano’s influence on the global patterns due to the immense amount of water vapor still present in the stratosphere, having acted as a greenhouse gas temperature boost over the last 2 1/2 years, and effects likely to continue through and well beyond this coming winter. We also have a significant drought ongoing this autumn, and statistics show that our drier autumns have often been followed by lower than typical snowfall totals in the region. Will this be a factor this season? Well, statistics say it may be.

MAJOR INDICES / IMPACTS

Hunga Tonga Volcanic Eruption, January 2022 (HTE): While we don’t know the full details of the impact of this event, it is theorized that the impacts can last at least a few to several more years, so this plays as a bit of a wild card, but has largely been a warming influence globally, due to the immense amount of moisture in the stratosphere as a result of the eruption. It will take quite some time for that to remove itself from that layer, so it follows that the impacts of having it there cannot be ignored.

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO): The general idea heading toward winter is for a weak east-based La Nina, but this has struggled to get going as expected, as indications were it would emerge, even though weakly, in the autumn. While anomalies are a little on the cool side of average, they are close enough to average to still be considered ENSO neutral. My feeling is that we may see this struggle continue, and we’ll be between neutral and very weak La Nina conditions for the majority of the winter, with maybe a bit more pronounced, albeit still weak, La Nina noted by later in the winter. If this is the case, the correlations as far as ENSO goes would be closer to those anticipated for a neutral winter. Early on, this would allow for more cold to be able to be driven into the eastern US with less ridging in the Southeast and less of a push of the jet stream to the north. If La Nina does gain more identity later in the winter, the Southeast ridge would become more prominent and the subsequent pushing of the jet stream to the north would be more likely, allowing for milder weather more often than colder weather in our area. Again, one factor among many, and not as simple as “yes” or “no” regarding any or all types of weather.

Arctic Oscillation (AO): This is the index that indicates the strength and behavior of the Polar Vortex (PV). I still alternate between being amused and frustrated when I see the term “Polar Vortex” used somewhat out of context on social media and even some mainstream media, as if it’s a “new” phenomenon of some kind or some kind of “polar storm”. It’s been used to describe the onset of severe cold, but also used to describe the opposite. Leaving the drama of the media out of it, there’s actually truth to that. The stability of the PV is a high determining factor on how much cold air is able to move equatorward from the polar regions. A tight, strong PV, limits the movement of cold, while a disturbed, weakened PV allows more to take place. That’s the basic idea. The specifics help determine the “where” and “when”, and of course other aspects of the large scale pattern help determine the behavior of this feature. Currently, we’re looking at an AO that’s about neutral and wants to trend negative as we head through the late November / early December period. This in itself can allow colder weather to build a lot closer to our latitude and potentially make more notable visits as we head into the last weeks of autumn, but again it would be dependent on the specifics of the large scale pattern. A negative AO doesn’t automatically mean that everywhere further south gets colder. There are pockets of cold, and pockets of milder. Sometimes they are stable and don’t move much, other times they are more longitudinally migratory. An example of this would be an initial cold snap in the US West while the East is mild, and then the pattern shifts eastward to chill down the East while the West warms. Just one example – not a specific forecast. As I write this, a slightly negative AO looks like it wants to deliver colder weather to our region as we start meteorological winter, and the question is how long into December does that contribute to cold shots? My current guess is pretty deep into the month. There are some notable indications that the PV will become stronger and therefore the AO will become more stubbornly positive as we get to 2025 (mid to late winter). This would increase the chance of milder weather and limit the amount of cold that can invade, since the jet stream is stronger and displace northward, bottling up the arctic air well to the north. This is at least partially related to the status of the next major index in my discussion. Read on…

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the direction of stratospheric winds above the tropical latitudes: This recently flipped to a positive, or westerly QBO phase. A westerly QBO is often a player in triggering milder winter weather in the eastern US. With the phase having flipped recently and not too strong yet, its influence may be muted at first, before becoming more pronounced.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): In its positive phase, this index describes general low pressure north and high pressure south in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the pattern in this phase also is a fairly progressive jet stream pattern, often blowing across Canada and/or the northern US and into North Atlantic without being hindered along their path. In its negative phase, high pressure is more dominant in the north, with low pressure to the south. This describes a blocking pattern, which with high pressure sitting over the North Atlantic, Greenland, or Atlantic Canada, forces the jet stream to the south. This tends to be associated with colder and/or stormier weather in the US Northeast. However, this can be a dry pattern if the blocking is too strong or oriented in such a way that the high pressure area is too far west. Predicting this index becomes highly uncertain beyond a couple weeks. And over the next couple weeks this index will be floating around neutral with no definitive positive or negative indicated.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): a water temperature pattern in the mid latitude Pacific Ocean, north of 20 degrees N latitude. This index went against the El Nino rule of it of being positive and was negative last winter, and it looks like the negative PDO will continue this winter as well. The negative phase of the PDO tends to promote more troughing, colder weather, and storminess in the western US, while a downstream ridge and milder weather occurs in the eastern US.

Pacific-North American Index (PNA), which describes the upper air pattern from the North Pacific into North America): When this index is positive, it’s associated with high pressure ridging in the western portion of North America and a tendency for low pressure troughing in the eastern portion of North America. This winter, like last, the expectation for PNA is opposite, in a negative phase, which tends to aid in more trough development in the western US and more ridiging in the eastern US. This would be a contributing factor for a milder winter in the eastern US.

Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO), which is similar to NAO, but in the eastern North Pacific: A positive EPO is a mostly zonal or lower amplitude pattern which allows mild Pacific air into the US more readily, while a negative EPO features more high pressure ridging in the northeastern Pacific and Alaska, blocking Pacific air, and driving colder air southward out of Canada into the US, the longitude of the coldest determined at least in part by the placement of high pressure and downstream troughing. Again, similar to the outlook last year, the EPO is expected to run in a negative phase to start out the winter in December, but with a trend to neutral and then positive as we head through winter. This would put some limitation on Pacific flow. I wrote this last year as well, and it holds true yet again: A negative EPO while the PNA is also negative can result in a dampened impact from both indices, which may be the case to start the winter, rendering them less powerful factors.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), an index that measures water temperature tendencies in the Indian Ocean, and found to have some impact on the large scale climate pattern: A positive IOD features warmer water and increased convective activity in the western Indian Ocean and nearby land masses while cooler water dominates the eastern Indian Ocean with less convective activity and resultant rainfall for southeastern Asia as well as Australia. A negative IOD produces the opposite – cooler water in the western waters, warmer waters to the east with more convective activity and rain in southeastern Asia / Australia. The IOD is expected to be in neutral territory this winter, but close to weak negative in December and closer to weak positive from January onward. While a positive phase is associated with a stronger Polar Vortex, the expectation of neutrality to very weak positive for this phase means its influence will be minimal at best, and a stronger PV would be the result of other factors. So the IOD is not a major factor in this forecast for the 2024-2025 winter.

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which describes convective focus in equatorial regions and has 8 phases depending on the location of the normally eastward-drifting convective wave: It’s known that the Northeast has a better shot at snow / wintry weather with MJO in phases 7, 8, and 1 early in the season and in phases 8, 1, and 2 as the winter progresses. The MJO has been the “enemy” of the snow lover many times in southern New England during the last several winters, and there are some indications that it may continue this habit this winter. We’ve been in a pattern where the MJO is strongest (moderate strength) while in phases 3 through 5, then will display a weakening trend while passing from phases 6 through 7 and nearly non-existent when phases 8, 1, and 2 occur. This index can be hard to predict at times, but most indicators are that this stronger 3 through 6, weaker 7 through 2 pattern will continue for at least the early part of winter. This is not the best news if you want more snowstorm chances for this area, but that said, it doesn’t mean that it makes it impossible to get some meaningful snow, since the MJO is only one factor of many that influence this. Will MJO “play nicer” for the snow lover later on? We’ll see.

Solar Cycle: This cycle, also known as the solar magnetic activity cycle, sunspot cycle, or Schwabe cycle, is a periodic (about 11 year) change in solar activity as measured by solar storms, or sunspots, on the sun’s surface. There has been a correlation observed that high periods of solar activity tend to correspond to milder winters overall, but this is not a solid correlation and more or a base guideline. A more useful aspect of the ability to measure this is to tell when we may see greater or fewer episodes of the aurora, and the potential for disruptions of satellite communication. Either way, Solar Cycle 25 (or the 25th cycle observed since we clearly identified this cycle in the mid 1800s) has been entering peak stronger than expected. This was exemplified by the multiple episodes of aurora observed since spring of 2024. The peak of solar cycle 25 is now not expected to occur until early in the summer of 2025, so we’re firmly in a strong cycle for this winter. There is some decent evidence pointing to this solar max being one of the reason for our recent mild winters, and it may yet try to turn up the thermostat on this winter as well, unless overcome by other indices with the opposite effect.

This covers the major indices, and now it’s time for the reminder of the uncertainty of long range forecasting. This is somewhat different than the uncertainty of day-to-day forecasting. We still have the unknowns of the HTE to factor in, as well as the surprises that can sometimes occur even when you have a seemingly firm grasp of the statuses and expectations of the more-known major indices. So there are wildcards in the deck, and we will find out how many we are dealt.

Like last year, variability will be the key. We’re not going to be cold front one end to the other, or mild from one end to the other, nor are we likely to be consistently dry or wet. There are enough conflicting indices to know we’ll see a few battles to see which one has the greater impacts, and they may wrestle back and forth a few times, but we still should see some general trends that are easier to spot. I wrote something last year that rings true always regarding seasonal forecasting, so here it is repeated: The aim of the long range forecast is to try to identify what these longer term trends will be. It almost doesn’t matter what the sum of them ends up being, because the impacts of temperature, wind, rain/snow are most strongly felt during the events, not so much over the entire season, but on an event-by-event basis. The longer term trends are more important for things like agriculture, or heating bills. People remember the 2014-2015 winter for its incredible stretch of snow and cold from the very end of January to the very beginning of March, and nearly forget that winter was almost “non existent” up until that point. They remember the individual storms in that stretch, and the stretch itself, but over a much shorter period of time than the entire winter. But let’s still focus on some definitive periods in the monthly breakdowns that follow…

DECEMBER

This month is probably the easiest, at least in theory, to forecast for, since it starts in a matter of hours, and I’m trying to predict trends 31 days out, not 60, 90, or greater. But it is what it is. All the factors discussed above combine to start our December on the cold side, and generally on the dry side too. The big question is, does it stay that way? I suspect at some point we’ll relax the cold shots and get a milder trend or two, but I do think this particular December will continue a set-up to see cold air more easily driven down into the northeastern US while ENSO remains generally neutral and we lack a stronger ridge in the southeastern US. At the same time, an AO that is more neutral and not so strongly positive doesn’t lock the cold away. The jet stream’s orientation says that most of the deeper moisture systems will be driven south of our region, but all it takes is a subtle shift of the pattern to produce a more southwesterly flow and one or more of those systems can come up this way. Do they combine with cold air and give us early season snow, or do they go too far north and keep the snow in the mountains while southern areas are too mild for snow during the storm event? Those details will reveal themselves with time. I do think we’ll have a handful of northern stream systems during our cold pattern that can help us get going with our seasonal snow total in at least a few minor events, so I do not expect a snowless December, even if the larger events to produce well. I’ll go with slightly below normal temperatures and near to below normal precipitation. Snowfall with respect to normal is going to be a tough call since we see the colder start with mainly dry weather, and then some up and down temperatures when the pattern gets a little more active. Inland areas probably stand the best chance of accumulating snow in “larger” systems, but if we get a series of clipper systems in a colder pattern, while the snowfalls are generally lighter they can be more uniform. Based on this I cautiously call for a range of a little below normal east and south to near normal north and west (near to slightly below normal for the region overall).

JANUARY

Looking over the expected behavior of indices described above, this is the month that starts out on the colder, stormier side, followed by a trend toward drier and milder weather later in the month. Temperatures that start cold and end mild average out to near normal, while both precipitation and snowfall are a little above the long term averages.

FEBRUARY

A stronger PV and a positive AO are likely to be the strongest driving forces in the pattern for the 3rd month of meteorological winter. This would indicate a mild month with brief cold shots behind fast-moving storms that track mostly north of our area, and limited precipitation meaning below normal expectations for precipitation and snowfall. Do the weeks prior to this help finish off our ongoing drought? Or is it inadequate only to find the drought fueled further by a dry end to meteorological winter? Well, don’t forget March. Let’s look there.

MARCH (UNTIL EQUINOX)

Weak La Nina, positive AO, negative PNA, negative PDO. These say mild and dry. Wildcard: Maybe a more active Pacific jet aimed a little more our way if we can see some weakening of the PV to help deliver us more precipitation. It’d be a gamble to go this way with a forecast a few months in the future, but I’ll take the leap. Temperatures near to above normal, precipitation a little above normal, snowfall near normal as we wrap up the winter season.

WINTER SEASON OVERALL
Temperature: Slightly above normal (departure +0.5F to +1.5F).
Precipitation: Slightly above normal (departure about +1 inch).
Snow: Near to slightly below normal.
-Boston 40-50 inches
-Worcester 55-65 inches
-Providence 35-45 inches
-Hartford 50-60 inches

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Today is the transition day to a chilly, dry pattern for the weekend and early next week as a west northwesterly air flow becomes established across the area. But today there are a few subtle things to talk about that impact the short-term forecast. The first is any lingering black ice from last night, which will be largely melted / sublimated by the time this blog is posted, so that’s rapidly becoming a non-factor. There are patchy stratocumulus clouds working into the region from the west, but they tend to be drying out with a downslope effect of the winds coming off the mountains to our west. A few of these can survive and a few fair weather clouds can develop to interrupt the sun briefly at times today. A little later, more clouds may appear as a weak disturbance approaches from the west in a broad cyclonic flow across the region. Also, ocean-effect rain showers are present in the waters off the South Coast, and a few of these may be able to develop closer to Martha’s Vineyard and/or Nantucket as the day goes on, so I can’t rule out a sprinkle of rain there and with the aforementioned disturbance a brief rain/snow shower in the hills northwest of Boston late in the day. Otherwise, it’s a dry day for most. Saturday through Tuesday will feature dry weather and below normal temperatures.

TODAY: Sun / patchy clouds. Remote chance of a brief rain shower South Coast especially Islands. Remote chance of a rain/snow shower northwest hills late day. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)

Fast-moving low pressure passes close by early in the period with a brief snow/mix/rain threat, otherwise a pattern of mainly dry weather and generally below normal temperatures will be dominant.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)

We’ll have to watch for 1 or 2 potential unsettled weather threats during this period that bring rain/mix/snow chances.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

A Happy Thanksgiving to all!! A quick-moving low pressure area gives us a stormy holiday. While not great timing in terms of holiday activities (local travel, football games), the soaking rain we see will be beneficial. It’s already moved into much of the area as patchy light rain, but will consolidate into a widespread rain area. There will be wet snow mixed in over higher elevations of far north central MA and southwestern NH, and it can snow enough here for a minor slushy accumulation, but eventually this area ends up with mainly rain as well. Low pressure that I once expected to be a little weaker and pass just south of New England will be deepening and cut right across southeastern New England by this evening, then quickly away via the Gulf of Maine overnight through Friday. Rain ends this evening and clouds break overnight. If you have late evening / overnight travel planned, watch for the formation of black ice on wet, untreated surfaces, especially outside of urban centers, where the temperature drops to near or slightly below freezing and there is not enough wind to fully dry off those surfaces. Much drier air arriving overnight and early Friday will sublimate most ice that does form, and any left will melt / evaporate as the sun rises on Friday. Friday through Monday sees us in a new, chilly and dry weather pattern, with a northwesterly flow out of Canada to end November and start December…

TODAY (THANKSGIVING): Overcast. Rain likely, but mixed with wet snow for a while in highest elevations of far north central MA / southwestern NH. Highs 38-45. Wind calm early, then E 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH possible, strongest this afternoon South Shore to Cape Cod.

THIS EVENING: Overcast with rain tapering off / ending west to east. Areas of fog forming. Temperatures steady 38-45 north of I-90 but rise to 45-52 I-90 area south. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH and gusty north of I-90, variable to W 10-20 MPH I-90 area south.

OVERNIGHT: Breaking clouds / clearing. Areas of fog early. Lows 30-37, coldest inland areas north and west of Boston where patchy black ice is likely. Wind W 5-15 MPH, some higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Cold, dry pattern overall. Watch for a clipper type system around December 4 with some mix/snow but not likely a big storm.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 8-12)

Below normal temperatures continue. A minor system can bring snow showers mid period. A Pacific jet stream system may approach at end of period.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

A nice day today as high pressure controls the weather. Watch for patches of black ice into mid morning that will melt / sublimate with the combo of rising temperature and dry enough air. A storm system is still on track to impact our Thanksgiving Day with rain and higher elevation snow (up to a few inches of wet snow possible in highest elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH). The low center, while intensifying, will cut across the Cape & Islands region by evening, so precipitation that moves in quickly in the morning will then tapering off in the evening. While short in duration, the storm will still deliver somewhat beneficial and needed rain, just poor timing in terms of holiday activities, but that’s how it goes sometimes! A dry and chilly pattern takes over for Friday and the weekend as we get into a northwesterly air flow out of Canada to end November and welcome December!

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 26-33. Wind calm.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Overcast. Rain arrives west to east in the morning, may be mixed rain/snow or even a period of wet snow higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA before turning to rain, but up to a few inches of snowfall accumulation is possible in highest elevations there. Highs 38-45. Wind calm at dawn, then E to NE increasing to 5-15 MPH later.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain (mix / wet snow to northwest) ending evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Patchy fog. Areas of black ice forming. Lows 30-37. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Cold, dry pattern overall. Watch for a clipper type system around December 4 with some mix/snow but not likely a big storm.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 7-11)

Same pattern continues. On the cold, dry side, but watch for minor systems with some snow shower chances.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

We’re now in a pattern, in contrast to the one a few days ago, where weather systems are moving much more quickly. A low pressure area will travel to our north today and while it’s occluding / maturing, a new low will form nearby as the system is getting set to exit later today. Net result: A period of rain, not too beneficial as it will be short-lived and not produce that much (mostly 0.25 inch or less). This is followed by dry weather tonight through Wednesday as a small area of high pressure builds into the region. The next storm system, born of the Pacific jet stream, will hold more moisture as it races east northeastward to wet down our Thanksgiving Day with travel-slowing but otherwise beneficial rain. This can start as a mix or wet snow in the higher elevations well northwest of Boston for a while, with some accumulation in the highest elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. The low center will pass just south of New England Thursday evening and be well out to sea by early Friday. That day, and Saturday, will feature mainly dry and chilly weather with a gusty breeze. I can’t rule out a passing rain/mix/snow shower in the region on Friday.

TODAY: Any early sun in eastern areas is replaced by advancing clouds. Generally cloudy with a period of rain from mid morning through mid afternoon west to east. Clouds may break mainly west of I-95 by late day. Highs 43-50 north of I-90, 50-57 to the south. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, shifting to W later in the day.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 26-33. Wind calm.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Overcast. Rain arrives west to east in the morning, may be mixed rain/snow or even a period of wet snow higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA before turning to rain, but some snowfall accumulation is possible in highest elevations there. Highs 40-47. Wind calm at dawn, then E to NE increasing to 5-15 MPH later.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain ending evening. Breaking clouds overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Many clouds / intervals of sun. A passing rain/mix/snow shower possible. Highs 42-49. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 1-5)

Cold, dry pattern overall. Watch for a clipper type system around December 4 with some mix/snow but not likely a big storm.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 6-10)

Same pattern continues. On the cold, dry side, but watch for minor systems with some early season snowflakes.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

It’s Thanksgiving week, one of the most scrutinized weather periods of the year, and we do have 2 low pressure systems to contend with this week. The good news is that they both add some needed rain to chip away at the big deficit we built since the middle of this year. The bad news is of course they impact one pre holiday travel day and the holiday itself, coming on Tuesday and Thursday, but you know the saying: beggars can’t be choosers. This is how things go this week. High pressure builds in today, shutting down the northwest breeze we still feel for a few hours this morning, and bringing plenty of sun with pleasantly cool late November air. High clouds arrive from the west later today ahead of our first approaching low pressure area. This will bring us a period of rain during the day tomorrow as the parent low heads down the St. Lawrence Valley and an occluding system develops a new low right over our area just as it’s set to exit late in the day. With the early morning low temperatures at or just below freezing in parts of southern NH, a quick onset of rain can result in a brief period of freezing rain on surfaces that cool quickly, like elevated walkways and bridges, metal ramps, etc. – so keep this in mind if you are out early in the morning in this area and it starts to rain. The system should be moving quickly enough that rain is ending about the time night is about to arrive, but some areas west of I-95 can see breaks of sun before it sets as the rain departs. Drier, chilly, breezy weather takes over at night and then the wind diminishes during Wednesday as a narrow area of high pressure builds in, providing a nice day for day-before-Thanksgiving travel and last-minute holiday related errands. The next low pressure area races our way for Thanksgiving Day. Clouds thicken up early in the day. The details of precipitation onset still have to be fine-tuned with this, as well as the storm’s track, which does have an impact on precipitation-type for parts of our region. We seem to be down to a swath of a couple hundred miles for track of low, which will pass by the region at night before exiting early Friday. A track closer to the South Coast, maybe over Cape Cod, would favor a more solid episode of rain but also some wet snow mixing in over highest elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH for parts of the event. A track a little further south, which takes place if the low center is a little weaker, results in slightly less precipitation but enough cold air staying over the aforementioned higher elevations for some slushy accumulation of snow – but still not all that much due to lesser precipitation. Either way, the Providence – Boston areas see a rain event, probably much of it falling between noon and midnight. A few lingering rain and snow showers can be around into early Friday before dry weather returns, with colder air arriving as winds pick up behind the departing system.

TODAY: Sunshine – some high clouds moving in from the west this afternoon. Highs 44-51. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 30-37 north of I-90, coldest in southern NH, and 35-42 south of I-90, mildest South Coast. Wind variable to SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy until mid afternoon with rain likely (may begin with brief freezing rain interior southern NH), then rain ending west to east with breaking clouds at day’s end. Highs 43-50 north of I-90, 51-58 south of I-90. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, shifting to W late-day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 26-33. Wind calm.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Overcast. Rain arrives west to east in the morning, may be mixed rain/snow or even a period of wet snow higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA before turning to rain. Highs 40-47. Wind calm at dawn, then E to NE increasing to 5-15 MPH later.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain continues evening, tapers off overnight. Lows 35-42. Wind NE 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Many clouds / intervals of sun. Passing rain/mix/snow showers possible. Highs 42-49. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

A decidedly colder pattern to end November and start December as we see a mainly northwesterly flow from Canada. A few snow showers can be around over the November 30 / December 1 weekend, and a minor system may bring brief precipitation around December 2, otherwise a generally dry pattern is expected.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 5-9)

Minor systems produce a few snow (or mix) showers in a colder pattern, otherwise mostly dry. Pacific systems should be pushed south of New England in the expected pattern, but will keep an eye on anything that ends up far enough north to give a steadier precipitation threat.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

It’s time for your Sunday update, and there are not going to be a lot of changes to what was said yesterday, but just some refining and fine-tuning of forecasts for days that are now one-day closer. But first, a quick look back at what was a widespread beneficial rainfall, on the order of 1.00 to 2.50 inches, with heaviest amounts in Essex and northern Middlesex Counties of MA into southern NH. While this rain doesn’t end the current drought, which is pretty solid, it does dent it, and most definitely wiped out the many fires burning as a result of the long stretch of very dry weather we had. Blocking in the atmosphere was just so that the low pressure areas associated with the storm system were able to do cyclonic loops and their associated rain bands were able to linger over the region longer than in a more progressive system. But now the weather pattern shifts back to progressive systems, so let’s take a look at how they impact us over the next 5 days. As I said – no big changes here in the thought process off yesterday. Today, we’re in a gusty northwesterly flow between our recent storm now in Atlantic Canada and high pressure across the Great Lakes. This high builds east and shuts our wind down overnight tonight into Monday, a more tranquil but chilly day. However, you’ll see clouds coming back in during the day Monday ahead of our next system – a low pressure area that will track north of New England and start to redevelop right over our area as it passes by Tuesday morning / midday. This brings a period of wet weather to the region, not nearly as prolific as our last one, but any additional rain is a good thing right now. The system scoots out and dry weather returns later Tuesday through Wednesday, favorable for pre-holiday travel and associated activities. I’m watching the next low pressure area for Thanksgiving. I’m not going to be too cranky today about how much hype has been attached to this potential system, driven by a click-hungry social media with far too many non-professionals, and even some mainstream sources pressured by higher-ups to talk something up. (Ok maybe I’m still a little cranky about it haha). I get that it’s a holiday week, but there’s a better way to handle this, in my opinion, when there is that much uncertainty left. And some of our sources have done that wonderfully. So that’s it for my inserted commentary. Back to the forecast. The Thanksgiving system to me, while still carrying “day 5 uncertainty” looks like a fast-moving, fairly flat (non-amplified) low that will toss some rain (and maybe some mix and wet snow higher elevations) into our region as early as Thanksgiving afternoon into that night. Timing and exact track obviously still need to be tweaked, so keep up with updates as to how this system will ultimately impact the holiday.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH, then diminishing.

MONDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing high clouds. Highs 44-51. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Good chance of rain after midnight. Lows 38-45 early, then a slight temperature rise overnight. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with periodic rain or rain showers until midday, then a sun/cloud mix evolves west to east. Wind variable 5-15 MPH shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 26-33. Wind calm.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Clouding over. Rain arrives midday-afternoon, may be mixed with wet snow interior higher elevations at start. Highs 40-47. Wind calm early, then E-NE 5-15 MPH later.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

The quick movement of the late week system results in improvement for “Black Friday” (Nov 29) with breaking clouds and maybe a few rain and higher elevation snow showers, then windy and colder weather to end November on the final day of the month next Saturday. December starts having to watch what looks like a quick-moving system with a rain/snow chance December 1 and/or 2, then fair, colder weather ends this period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Minor systems produce a few snow (or mix) showers in a colder pattern, otherwise mostly dry. Pacific systems should be pushed south of New England in the expected pattern, but will watch any of those “just in case”.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

A wet start (and additional beneficial rain) to this weekend as low pressure completes a cyclonic loop to our east early today then starts to accelerate away. As this happens, dry air working in just behind it will take the solid rain shield over much of the region now and start to obliterate it as it is also moving out from northwest to southeast. This will happen in the mid to late morning. One final lobe of showers may skirt the coast from NH to Cape Cod at midday, and then as we go through the afternoon, clouds will start to break for intervals of sun, especially I-95 westward. The breeze picks up behind the departing low and it turns quite windy this afternoon and evening, and remains breeze through Sunday, which will be a day featuring a sun/cloud mix in a northwesterly air flow between low pressure east and high pressure west. As previously mentioned, this narrow high slides eastward and shuts the wind down but also drives the temperature down Sunday night, so that we have a cold but tranquil start on Monday. Timing is on track with the next system from the west, bringing clouds back later Monday. A primary low will track into southeastern Canada and a weak secondary will form over our region as the system passes by. Timing suggests the late Monday evening to midday Tuesday period of time as most likely to see wet weather, followed by drying, breezy, chilly conditions later Tuesday. High pressure brings fair, chilly weather Wednesday, favorable for day-before-Thanksgiving travel / holiday prep activities.

TODAY: Overcast and rainy start, then rain tapers off and ends from northwest to southeast mid morning on with one more rain shower possible near the eastern coastal areas, lastly Cape Cod, during midday. Breaking clouds and partial sun possible later. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts early, diminishing and becoming variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 44-51. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late evening and overnight. Lows 40-47 early, then may rise slightly. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a good chance of rain showers in the morning, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55 in the morning then steady or a slight temperature drop. wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

Before guidance really has a full handle on the Thanksgiving / Black Friday “storm threat”, my meteorological thoughts point me toward a flat, fast flow that takes low pressure south of our region later Thursday to early Friday. We’ll probably see a cloudy Thanksgiving, or at least “clouding-up”, and we’ll have to watch for a period of rain and/or snow for portions of the region that night into Friday before a clearing trend follows that. The weekend itself (Sat Nov 30 & Sun Dec 1) looks mainly dry overall, though the next system may approach quickly by the end of the weekend with clouds and a precipitation threat not out of the question, which could then linger into December 2, but at “days 9 & 10”, this is more speculation than solidly confident prediction. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Unsettled potential focused toward mid period with fair weather on both ends. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

A broad area of low pressure aloft and associated surface lows continue to impact our weather into the weekend. We had some beneficial rain finally, which moved in yesterday and lasted well into the night across most of the region, but we are now “dry-slotting” from the south with the axis of steadier rain now to the north and northwest. A few rain showers can pop up and move through some areas during the day today in the southerly flow we have here. This takes place as surface low pressure completes a cyclonic loop while weakening over the NY/NJ/PA area, then falls apart while moving southeastward into the waters to our south. At the same time, a new low ignites and intensifies in the waters to our southeast and between this afternoon and Saturday midday does its own cyclonic loop under the upper low to our east. But this will be enough to throw some rain showers back into eastern MA then pivoting into northern MA and southern NH (where snow can mix in over higher elevations), then come back to the south and east during Saturday morning-midday before finally exiting via Cape Cod. All the while our southerly air flow today will back to east tonight and back further to north and eventually northwest tonight and Saturday, becoming quite gusty, but also aiding in the eventual drying. Sunday’s slated to be a breezy, cool, but dry day in the northwesterly air flow between low pressure in Atlantic Canada and a narrow area of high pressure west of New England, the latter of which builds in late Sunday night and early Monday, shutting the wind down but setting up a cold morning on Monday. During the day Monday clouds will race in from the west ahead of a low pressure area moving across the Great Lakes. This will eventually limit and probably blot out the sun before it sets Monday. The low pressure area will then move fairly swiftly across our region Monday night and Tuesday. Its exact track will determine if we have a warm front / cold front passage (track just to our north) or just a swath of rain/mix (track further south). That detail is TBD.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / intervals of sun. Chance of passing rain showers. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain eastern MA / southeastern NH. Lows 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts above 20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain southern NH and northern MA, may mix with wet snow in higher elevations, then rain showers lingering in eastern MA and crossing parts of RI midday into afternoon before ending. Highs 45-52. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25+ MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts early, diminishing and becoming variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 44-51. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain / rain showers (possible higher elevation mix). Lows 38-45. Highs 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Day-before-Thanksgiving (Nov 27) brings fair and cool weather good for last minute errands and travel. Watching a wave of low pressure for potential impact during Thanksgiving Day (Nov 28) and “Black Friday” (Nov 29), with a wide range of potentials but leaning toward more benign impacts from a not-too-potent system. Fair, windy, colder weather for the last day of November behind whatever low pressure system moves by the region. Active pattern sends the next low our way with a rain/snow chance to greet December, but that’s far in the future so no further details can be determined.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Potential low pressure impact (rain/snow) to start the period, and another rain/snow shower threat comes before the end of the period, though these don’t look like major systems. Overall pattern indication is chilly west to northwest flow with near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

A broad trough of low pressure moves eastward across the Northeast today into the weekend with 2 distinctive surface lows impacting our weather. Surface low number 1 matures / occludes over our region later today into Friday with the much-talked-about ribbon of rain arriving today, giving a good 1/2 inch to 1 inch (over 1 inch in some areas) before pushing to the north and allowing a slot of drier air to move up from the south early Friday. Low number 2 develops offshore south of our area and does a cyclonic loop to our east under upper level low pressure Friday night and early Saturday. This system will throw another shield of rain into eastern areas late Friday to very early Saturday. If it gets back far enough to the west some snow can be mixed in over higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH. This can also be the case with some “in-between” shower activity in the lull between the two low pressure impacts. Going through Saturday we’ll end up on the back side of departing but deepening low pressure so while there’s a drying trend it’ll be breezy to windy. Generally fair/breezy/cool weather is then ours for Sunday between low pressure in Atlantic Canada and high pressure in the Great Lakes. The high slides eastward and delivers dry but more tranquil weather to us Monday, but clouds will already be advancing in ahead of an approaching low pressure area in the Great Lakes.

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle and low level smoke at first. Rain arrives southwest to northeast during the morning but tapers off toward evening south of I-90. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

TONIGHT: Patchy rain / drizzle diminishes as clouds break at times. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers, may be mixed with wet snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Temperatures fall slightly from 45-52 to 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A few rain/mix/snow showers. An additional period of steadier rain possible Friday evening to early Saturday morning. Lows 35-42. Highs 47-54. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun then increasing high clouds. Highs 44-51. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Quick-moving disturbance exits November 26 – maybe a rain/snow shower then dry, breezy, cool. Dry November 27. Watching for low pressure to bring unsettled weather Thanksgiving Day (November 28) and the day after, before fair weather returns at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 1-5)

Watching for a passing low pressure area around December 1-2. Dry weather returns after that before the next disturbance brings a rain or snow shower at the end of the period. Temperatures variable – averaging close to normal.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

High pressure brings fair, tranquil weather today – a cold morning and seasonably pleasant afternoon – though you’ll see clouds begin to move in ahead of a coming low pressure trough. This has been a much-talked-about system as it offers our first real opportunity in quite some time for a widespread rainfall, which in the shortest term would be beneficial for getting multiple southern New England wildfires under control, some of which have been burning for up to a few weeks. As has been my expectation, it does appear that it will help with the fires, while not being major help for the ongoing drought. We’ll need a series of such systems over a period of weeks (rain or snow as we head into late autumn and winter) to eradicate the drought, and it remains to be seen how that will go. In the shorter term though, beneficial rain does come tomorrow, with the orientation of the occluding low pressure area sending a band of it into our region from southwest to northeast during the morning and midday hours, slowing a little as the occluding low starts a cyclonic pivot, but with enough momentum to eventually push a dry slot up from the south and cut the rain off during the evening hours. It is at that time that most of the region will have seen on the order of about 1/2 to 1 inch of welcomed rainfall – no, not a great soaking, but an ok one, enough to quell the fires anyway. What happens after that is that the old low center will wobble its way by our region from west to east, eventually spawning a new storm to our southeast, that tracks northward on the eastern side of the trough, which will still have its axis west of us later Friday. This can bring another slug of rain to a portion of the region favoring Cape Cod / eastern MA and southeastern NH (maybe far enough west to include RI) for a few hours, timing between late day Friday and early morning Saturday. To the west, only a few showers of rain and some highest-elevation snow showers can occur, but these will be minor. We’ll take any bonus rain we can get from this system, as once it exits, it’s a drying trend that takes over for the balance of the weekend and the start of next week in a chilly northwesterly air flow behind the low pressure conglomeration.

TODAY: Scattered cloud patches amidst plenty of sunshine through midday. An increase in clouds during the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds consolidate – becoming overcast. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain arrives southwest to northeast by midday, but tapers off toward evening south of I-90. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Patchy rain / drizzle diminishes as clouds break at times. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers, may be mixed with wet snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Temperatures fall slightly from 45-52 to 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A few rain/mix/snow showers. An additional period of steadier rain possible eastern areas favoring Cape Cod Friday night. Lows 35-42. Highs 47-54. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

While still watching for a wave of low pressure to bring clouds and a potential rain threat around the Thanksgiving holiday (November 28) the trends have been for a bit more blocking and unsettled weather pushed south of the region with a drier, chilly northwesterly air flow in our region. Leaning in this direction but not discounting the potential mentioned.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

Watching for a passing low pressure area around December 1-2 – doesn’t look like a major storm this far in advance. Dry weather is expected at the start of and at the end of period. No major extremes of temperature expected.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

A dry northwesterly air flow provides fair, mild weather today with continued high fire danger. High pressure builds in tonight into Wednesday with more dry and tranquil weather. A large trough of low pressure and occluding surface low will move into the Northeast on Thursday. The set-up for this system regarding our weather still looks similar to me then previously mentioned, with the main ribbon of rain, which will be quite welcomed, moving through the region in a matter of several hours, with a more showery lighter rainfall pattern after that, with some snow mixing in at highest elevations well northwest of Boston by Friday which remains unsettled as the mature and now weakening low moves across the area. Additional low pressure development later Friday and early Saturday takes place too far east to give the entire region any additional beneficial rain, but Cape Cod can be clipped by that system. Otherwise the start of the weekend will see upper level low pressure crossing there region with a lot of clouds and a few showers of rain/mix/snow possible.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain midday / afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, shifting to SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Occasional rain showers / drizzle. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers, may be mixed with wet snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Temperatures fall slightly from 45-52 to 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A few rain/mix/snow showers. An additional period of steadier rain possible Cape Cod. Lows 33-40. Highs 47-54. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Fair, cool early period. Watching for some additional unsettled weather mid to late period (including Thanksgiving November 28) but no indications of a major storm during this period. This activity could also be shunted south of New England and we remain fair here.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Mostly zonal and dry pattern with up and down temperatures expected end November, then need to watch for passing low pressure and unsettled weather in the first day or two of December.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

A cold front moves through the region this morning with no more than a passing insignificant rain shower under a deck of clouds, before it moves on and sun returns during the day. The air will remain fairly mild as the air mass behind the front is modified. Cooler air will eventually filter in tonight and Tuesday on a northwesterly air flow, keeping fire danger on the high side. A narrow area of high pressure builds in Tuesday night, which will be a chilly one, and Wednesday, which will be a fair, more tranquil day, but with filtered to dimmed sun as high clouds advance in from the west. These clouds are the forerunners of what will be a swath of rain heading our way for Thursday. This is due to a sprawling low pressure area moving into the Great Lakes, with cyclic redevelopment of low pressure eastward as the trough winds up and slowly moves east in response to some blocking high pressure to the north. This is a different configuration than we’ve seen with many systems recently, and it’s what allows the rain to reach our area Thursday. That said, I have had my concerns that this system will be limited in its ability to produce a significant amount of rain, and this will likely come to be the case. Not to say “hey it’s not going to rain!” .. it is going to rain from this thing, but modestly. The orentation of the trough and accompanying surface low means a strong occlusion and a ribbon of rain that is fairly narrow and moves through from southwest to northeast in a few hours, after which the filling low drifts eastward across our region during the following 24 hours, into Friday, with more spotty, lighter rainfall. We’ll get close to a rain/snow mix in our highest elevations to the northwest of Boston but most of the frozen stuff will stack in the mountains to the west and north of the WHW forecast area. There are still some details to work out with this forecast, so pay attention to any comments I make and of course the daily updates heading through the week!

TODAY: Lots of clouds / passing light rain showers through mid morning, then increasing sun. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW with a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain midday / afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, shifting to SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Occasional rain showers / drizzle. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers, may be mixed with wet snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Temperatures fall slightly from 45-52 to 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

The November 23-24 weekend will feature upper level low pressure drifting across the region and weakening, with limited rain/snow shower chances, and mostly dry, cool conditions. We have to watch for a wave of low pressure to bring clouds back and possible rain toward the middle of next week. While any rain we get is generally regarded as beneficial, any unsettled weather in the days just before Thanksgiving can result in at least minor travel troubles.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

The large scale pattern features some blocking transitioning more zonal with time, and mostly dry weather here. Depending on the timing of a disturbance, Thanksgiving Day (November 28) can at least start unsettled.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Dry weather continues, but there is some rain now in the 5-day forecast. First, high pressure brings fair and mild weather to the region today with lots of sun and less wind, and temperatures running above normal. A trough and cold front will cross the region Monday with some clouds and a brief window of opportunity for passing light rain showers before noon. Breezy, mild weather prevails during the day as the air behind the front is not that cold and will be balanced out by whatever solar heating takes place. It will chill off that night and be a cooler day Tuesday with dry conditions. Tuesday night winds up quite chilly with a narrow area of high pressure providing clear sky and light wind for radiational cooling. As we get into midweek, things start to change. While we still have some blocking in place, features on the larger scale will be readjusting somewhat. One of the players is a trough moving through the Upper Midwest with a sprawling low pressure area. The initial surge of the moisture from this system will dry up as it moves into the eastern US, and it will be a disturbance that contains some remnant moisture from TS Sara (far to the south in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico) that initiates another low pressure area to the south and west of New England. It is this system that gives us our best shot at widespread rainfall on Thursday. As guidance struggles in a blocking pattern, we are probably not seeing the actual outcome on current simulations, and it’s important to follow the ensembles and model trends. While I do have a wet day in the forecast for “day 5” Thursday, I am skeptical that this system will produce widespread significant amounts. A conceivable / believable scenario would bring a narrow ribbon of rain into and possible through the region with the initial arrival of the low pressure area, but in response to blocking, a new redevelopment takes place further east and possibly further south, shifting the focus of heavier precipitation to offshore of New England, leaving us with some lighter rain / drizzle after the initial arrival. If such a feature was a little further west than described above, then we’d be in the game here in southeastern New England for more beneficial rainfall. Will monitor the trends closely.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing rain shower before noon. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW with a few higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Good chance of rain. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, possibly stronger in coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Upper level low pressure hangs about late next week. November 22 stands the greatest chance of additional rain, but it doesn’t look like all that much, probably more of a chance of a brief rain period then scattered rain showers, and getting into the November 23-24 weekend we would see just a daily chance of a few showers of rain/mix/snow with mostly dry weather. Chilly/dry northwesterly flow indicated for early Thanksgiving week (November 25-26).

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

The large scale pattern features some blocking transitioning more zonal with time, and mostly dry weather here. May have to watch one system passing by to the south around the Thanksgiving holiday itself (November 28) for a more extensive cloud cover and rain chance, but this is not a forecast with any kind of certainty – more a precautionary mention since it’s a holiday with a lot of travel involved.