DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

This last day of September starts with filtered sun as the high cloud shield extending far north of TS Imelda and an associated moisture plume moves out, and the sun brightens as the day goes on. It will be a mild day with a weak high pressure area just to our south, but later in the day you’ll notice a wind shift to the north and northeast, and the breeze increasing by evening. This will be due to a fairly strong cold front that goes by otherwise unnoticeable – very few clouds and no rainfall whatsoever. At midweek we’ll be breezy and much cooler from a large, stronger Canadian high pressure area to our north and the tropical activity far to our southeast and south (Humberto and Imelda). Later this week the high center will build right over our region then sink to the south with continued dry weather and a warm up to start the weekend.

TODAY: Filtered sun becomes brighter with time as high clouds gradually decrease, otherwise just a few passing fair-weather clouds this afternoon. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod including higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH MA South Shore through Cape Cod including higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod including higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 38-45. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)

High pressure to the south provides fair weather and above normal temperatures into early week. Watch for a cold front with a shower threat later October 7 to early October 8 followed by fair and cooler weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Zonal flow pattern. Warm-up early period, shower threat with next front mid period, cool-down late period.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

High pressure provides fair and mild weather today with plenty of sun that may become filtered by a shield of high clouds fanning up from the south. Those clouds are a product of a plume of moisture connected to Tropical Storm Imelda in the Bahamas. “Big brother” Humberto, a strong hurricane set to curve northwest to northeast in the western Atlantic, west of Bermuda, over the next couple of days. Imelda’s track will feature a slow northward movement and a hard right turn, following Humberto out to sea other than threatening Bermuda while passing by there as a hurricane later this week. Back at home, our mild and fair weather continues Tuesday, but a strong cold front slides through the region from north to south. This moisture-starved front will produce nothing but some clouds (no rain) and a wind shift to north and northeast. A larger high pressure area in eastern Canada will then deliver a cool airmass to our region for midweek, along with more wind between it and the offshore tropical systems. By the end of the week the high to the north will build closer and the wind will ease as fair weather continues here.

TODAY: Sunshine becoming filtered by high clouds from south to north. Highs 75-82 except 68-75 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind variable under 10 MPH early becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 38-45. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 4-8)

High pressure sinks to the south providing dry weather and allowing a warm-up this weekend (October 4-5) as well as into the start of next week before a cold front swiftly moves through with maybe a brief shower threat about October 7, followed by a shot of cooler air from Canada with another high building in.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Zonal (west to east) general flow pattern expected. Overall dry regime continues. Cool at first, warming up, a frontal system may bring a round of showers before we cool down again.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

An area of mid and upper level moisture moved through overnight and will exit today with the last of the rain early this morning ending near the South Coast, and a clearing trend from west to east with increasing sun, and it will turn out quite warm this afternoon as well. A cold front will slide across the region from northwest to southeast this evening, and a few showers that it produces in northern New England will largely dissipate before getting to our area, but one or two may survive the journey as far as southeastern NH. Behind this, high pressure builds in tonight and we’ll see a rather significant temperature drop due to lower dewpoint air and calming winds. High pressure remains in control Monday and Tuesday with two mild days and a cool night between. We’ll see some high cloudiness fan into the region and filter the sun during Monday – associated with the happenings well to our south (more on that in a moment). Tuesday, another cold front will drop through the region, but not quickly enough to prevent one more mild day. It’s at midweek, Wednesday and Thursday, when the pressure gradient between the tropical system currently Tropical Depression 9 but likely soon to acquire the name Imelda as a tropical storm interacts with a large high pressure area building out of Canada. This will induce an active northeast wind here and also deliver a much cooler air mass to the region. A little more about tropical activity: Powerful Hurricane Humberto is expected to move northwest then curve northeast between Bermuda and the US East Coast – a little closer to Bermuda, while expected TS Imelda makes its way north northwest through the Bahamas, then gets captured by Humberto before fully reaching the US Southeast Coast, with a future path likely being more to the east and away from any land areas. There’s still some uncertainty with this and it needs to be closely monitored. Either way, some heavier rainfall can impact portions of the Southeast for a while, but it looks like the situation will not be as serious as it could have been.

TODAY: Early-morning light rain near Cape Cod / Islands comes to an end. Clouds give way to sun west to east. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower southern NH early, otherwise mostly clear, but patchy fog in low elevations overnight. Lows 46-53 rural / suburban areas, 53-60 urban centers. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW in the evening then diminishing to near calm overnight.

MONDAY: Sunshine becoming filtered by high clouds from south to north. Highs 75-82 except 68-75 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind variable under 10 MPH early becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

With the increasing chance that the tropical systems staying further south and moving to sea, and high pressure dominating our region, this looks like a mainly dry period of weather for our region with a temperature moderation early to mid period then a cool-down late period with the arrival of a cold front from the west, possibly producing a brief shower threat.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)

A little less uncertainty in today’s look out this far. Expecting a zonal flow pattern with a front or two to pass by, but little in the way of any rain threat. Variable temperatures will average out close to normal overall.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

A generally dry and mild weekend, mostly dominated by high pressure, will be interrupted, kind-of, by an episode of cloudiness and maybe a little rain near the South Coast, mainly tonight as a plume of mid level moisture extending off low pressure to our south goes quickly by in the mid and upper wind, rendering the interruption nearly negligible. So, a nice weekend really. We hold onto the above normal temperatures Monday as well with more fair weather as high pressure continues its hold on the region. But some changes follow this as we say bye to September on Tuesday and hello to October on Wednesday. A strong cold front will move down from the north and northeast, pushed by a big Canadian high pressure area that will not only deliver much cooler air, but also more wind, as the pressure gradient tightens up between that high and tropical shenanigans occurring well to our south and southeast at the time. Shenanigans you ask? Well, these are the long-talked-about, well-advertised, and in some cases over-hyped tropical cyclones, you know the ones that some social media sites warned would “Fujiwhara” (or “Fujiwara” depending on your preferred spelling) into a monster hurricane that would basically swallow the entire eastern part of North America, and variations of that scenario. I hope that by now many folks are becoming wiser to the bogus information out there and paying less attention to it. What’s really up with these systems? Well, as of early this morning, we have Hurricane Humberto, located well south southeast of Bermuda and a significant distance northeast of the Leeward Islands. While Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane, the current forecast track takes it northeast of the Caribbean, well east of the Bahamas, well off the US East Coast, and re-curving west of Bermuda, sparing direct major impact there. If this takes place, that’s about as best-case scenario as you can have with a hurricane in the place it’s in now. Also, the second system, erroneously called “Imelda” over and over, before it’s named. Yes, it will likely end up with that name, because it’s likely to become a tropical storm today with nothing else in the basin to develop before that would happen, but until that moment it’s referred to in the present as “Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine”. This system is forecast to become the “I” storm, strengthen steadily but not rapidly, maybe reaching minimal hurricane status over the next few days while approaching the US Southeast Coast. Now that model initialization is a little more trustable thanks to having a low center to initialize for the system, its solutions can be looked at a little more seriously. And immediately a trend emerges, and that is for a non-landfall scenario – a temporary impact with some heavier rain bands and flooding potential for portions of the Carolinas, coastal impact from heavy surf, but a non-direct hit, and in fact a situation where the storm then starts to move away from the coastline, following in the wake of Humberto out to sea. Will this be the final solution? We don’t know yet, but it’s a trend worth paying attention to…

TODAY: Sunshine become more limited as the day goes on. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A little light rain possible south of I-90. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early clouds eastern and southern areas, then sunshine dominates. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 except 68-75 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)

Cool and breezy October 2 as high pressure sits to the north, then it builds over the region with continued dry weather and more tranquil conditions – chilly nights and slightly milder days heading through the balance of this period. The previous outlook discussed the need to watch tropical moisture to the south for possible late-period impact, but this was dependent on tropical moisture coming from the westernmost tropical system mentioned above, assuming a scenario that took it fully into the US Southeast. If the current trend of keeping it more offshore and eventually turning it away from the coast ends up the outcome, that moisture would be unavailable to be pulled northward by the pattern and we would never hear from it here. This scenario would allow high pressure to maintain control through the period. Again with the outcome still not certain, the confidence level of this outlook remains lower than average.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)

A lot of uncertainty which is always triggered by previous uncertainty (you know how it goes by now). Leaning dry to start, wet weather chance later in the period with temperatures not far from normal.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Here’s the outlook for the final 5 days of the month of September, including the first weekend of astronomical autumn. But let’s start with our Friday, today, featuring lowering dew points but still pretty mild to warm air behind last night’s cold frontal passage. This particular front, unlike several recent ones, is not delivering air as cool, so it’ll still be t-shirt and light jacket weather today with a sun/cloud mix, along with an active breeze at times. While I expect dry weather to be dominant, the approach and passage of an upper trough and surface reflection can trigger a passing shower, particularly north of I-90, from late afternoon to early evening, so watch for that. Any activity would be isolated and short-lived, but could provide a rainbow photo-up if occurring prior to sunset! This trough will introduce slightly cooler air for our upcoming weekend, which looks mainly dry. The only thing we have to watch for is a little light rain / shower activity on the northern edge of low pressure passing well to our south. This could bring some raindrops out of a period of heavier cloud cover especially south of I-90 in the Saturday night to Sunday morning time frame. Sunshine will be most abundant Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon. Early next week is one of those times where the weather will be interesting while not much is happening, at least visually notable. The set-up is large scale. As you know, the tropics in the Atlantic got more active this week, with Hurricane Gabrielle at sea, but now passing through the Azores as a post-tropical cyclone. TS Humberto is organizing and strengthening over water and its track is expected to be over water into next week, taking it west of Bermuda but well off the US East Coast. A disturbance with a very good chance of becoming the next named system (would be Imelda, but not there as of this update) has a less-clear future, but can be a threat to the US Southeast Coast in the days ahead. (There will be chatter about that in the comments and I’ll share future updates from colleagues as well.) Meanwhile, we’ll have a very mild Monday as a weak area of high pressure sinks to our south, but a strong cold front will move through the region on Tuesday, with no rain threat, but just some passing clouds and a notable wind shift. A large high pressure area will be building in eastern Canada, providing the push for the front and delivering cooler air by later Tuesday – that day itself still being on the milder side but not as warm as Monday. We’ll also notice, after fairly light winds on Monday, a pick-up of a north to northeast wind on Tuesday as part of the air flow between the big high in eastern Canada and the well-offshore and well-to-the-south tropical activity. So despite the fact that we are going into a quieter sensible weather stretch here, there is still much to follow.

TODAY: Sun filtered often by lots of high clouds into afternoon then developing puffy clouds from the west later with a slight chance of a passing shower, even brief downpour, mainly north of I-90 by late-day. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Patchy ground fog low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine most dominate morning and more limited afternoon. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A little light rain possible south of I-90. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Considerable cloudiness early to mid morning including the chance of a little light rain near the South Coast, then increasing sunshine. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH / coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 except 68-75 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)

Midweek next week features a cooler shot with a gusty breeze from the northeast between high pressure to the north and far-offshore Humberto. Fair, tranquil weather – cool nights & milder days – later next week. Potentially needing to watch moisture to the south by very end of period – more to say about this soon (could be remnant tropical moisture).

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)

Not a high confidence outlook with uncertainty regarding future behavior of tropical moisture to the south, but may hear from it in the form of wet weather to start this period before a drier pattern returns.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

Low pressure passes to our northwest and north today and tonight, and its warm front / cold front duet will result in a pretty wet day and evening here. Beneficial rainfall occurs for most of the region, with many areas seeing up to or over 1 inch of rain, and a few areas seeing up to 2 inches. General rain areas with a slight chance of embedded thunderstorms will traverse the region with the warm front during the day, and showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms will come along this evening with the cold front. Behind this system comes a day of mixed clouds and sun on Friday. Shower chances now appear absent, so dry weather is expected, and it will be fairly mild as there is not a big push of cooler air behind the cold front. High pressure builds in for Saturday with fair weather, and holds for most of Sunday, though as we’ve seen on several occasional recently, low pressure to our south will spread some cloudiness northward into the region on Sunday, although right now I think any rain from it stays south. This general idea will hold true Monday – limited sun, mild, but no rain.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Slight chance of thunder.storms. Areas of fog. Highs 66-73. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH, shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas, during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm during the evening. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, then clear. Patchy fog forms in low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

Expected pattern would favor high pressure to dominate with dry weather here, while any rainfall and other impacts from potential tropical systems staying south of the region and out to sea to the southeast. A more pronounced north to northeast air flow brings in cooler air and creates a gusty breeze for a couple days early in the period between the center of high pressure and the offshore happenings.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Again leaning toward high pressure bring more dominant with a drier pattern here while we watch low pressure and maybe tropical remnants to the south to see if they can make it this far north … eventually.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

The overall pattern is a little wetter (and a bit warmer) than we’d seen for a while. The former is a step in the right direction in terms of slowing the progress of drought expansion in the region, so we’ll take what we can get. Ironically I mention a warmer pattern when today is going to be a fair number of degrees cooler than yesterday was across the region, but my words take into account the overall pattern, which features fewer Canadian cool shots for a while, rather than the comparison between 2 consecutive days. The warmth of yesterday is replaced by a cooler maritime air mass today behind a frontal boundary that moved slowly southward through the region late yesterday through overnight, triggering showers and even some thunderstorm activity in some locations. Today, the frontal boundary comes to a stop near or just off the South Coast, and a moist northeasterly to air flow across our region and some lift over the frontal boundary from the south and west will combine to generate some additional showers and drizzle, making today a grey, damp, cooler day overall. A more prominent low pressure area will make a northeastward run through the Northeast, passing northwest of our region Thursday through early Friday. This will drag that frontal boundary back north and northeast as a warm front Thursday, with periodic rainfall in our region, then following it up will be a cold front at night into early Friday with another round of showers and possible thunder. Current timing suggests that most of this activity will have moved through and offshore by dawn on Friday, with the daytime hours featuring a sun/cloud mix and just a low chance of an additional pop up shower. There also isn’t all that much cool air behind this particular “cold front” so look for generally above normal temperatures to dominate on Friday, and into the weekend as well which looks quite nice as high pressure builds in Saturday and tries to hang around on Sunday. In the previous update, I mentioned a shower chance on Sunday due to a passing trough, and while this disturbance is still likely to pass by, the moisture will be lacking for it to produce much more than some passing clouds, so currently I have removed the shower chance from Sunday’s forecast. Meanwhile, the tropics have gotten more active, and there are two potential systems in the western Atlantic, one of which is close enough to have a possible impact, eventually, on a portion of the US East Coast. In the comments section below, I am going to share a tropical blog written by colleagues.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Patchy fog and drizzle. Highs 66-73. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 53-60. Wind NE to E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 66-73. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH, shifting to SW by late-day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing shower possible. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, then clear. Patchy fog forms in low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of sun. Highs 68-75. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloud / sun mix. Highs 70-77. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Expected pattern would favor high pressure to dominate with dry weather here, while any rainfall and other impacts from potential tropical systems staying south of the region and out to sea to the southeast.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)

It seems we’ll be doing what we’ve often done again since late summer – watching low pressure to the south that likely stays down there with no impact up our way, and seeking systems from the west that might have a chance to bring some beneficial showers, but without much luck to that end. Overall pattern leans dry and seasonable.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

On this first full day of autumn – a taste of summer as high pressure sits offshore and a southwest wind blows, transporting in warmth and higher humidity. An approaching cold front will trigger a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm in a few locations, with activity favoring areas west of Boston by late day or evening. The main batch of shower activity is expected to hold off until tonight, however. As the front slows and settles slowly southeastward through the region, then comes to a stop just to our south, cooler air moves in, but it doesn’t dry out completely, and the chance of showers persists into Wednesday. Another area of low pressure tracking northeastward will drag that front back through as a warm front during Thursday, with a batch of rain traversing our area. While any rain is beneficial at this point, this still does not look like a big soaking. However, we will find ourselves briefly in the warm sector of this storm after the warm front goes by and before the cold front arrives, at which time additional showers and a few downpours can take place later Thursday to early Friday. Some guidance has indicated the shower activity persists into Friday, while other guidance has shown the system making a quicker exit. Leaning toward the quicker exit, but will leave the shower chance in the forecast for the first part of Friday for now. I’ve also considerably bumped up my temperature forecast for Friday based on the fact this system does not have a very significant push of cool air behind it. Currently I am expecting a narrow area of high pressure to provide fair, mild weather for Saturday.

TODAY: Lots of sun with patchy clouds trending to less sun with more clouds later in the day when a shower or t-storm may pop up mainly west of I-95 and north of I-90. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but can be briefly gusty near any showers or storms.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Patchy fog and drizzle. Highs 66-73. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 53-60. Wind NE to E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 61-18. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers through midday, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, then clear. Patchy fog forms in low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of sun. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

A trough moving through from west to east may produce a passing shower on September 28 but most of that day looks dry. High pressure builds in beyond that with a stretch of fair weather expected to end September and start October. That said, there remains some uncertainty and low confidence in this forecast based on both guidance inconsistency and the potential for some tropical activity off or even near the US East Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Low confidence outlook period continues but also continuing to lean toward a drier pattern with variable but mostly near normal temperatures, with a quick cooler shot or two possible.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

An area of high pressure will continue to provide fair weather today and into Tuesday as well as it shifts offshore, resulting in a slight warm-up today and a notable warm-up with increased humidity during Tuesday. This taste of summer will arrive just in time for the arrival of autumn (a little weather irony) as the equinox occurs today at 2:19 p.m. EDT, but it won’t last too long. Why? A trough, surface low, and its associated cold front will approach the region late Tuesday with a shower and thunderstorm chance, primarily north and west of Boston, with any remaining activity from this getting into the rest of the region in scattered to clustered showers form (maybe a thunderstorm) Tuesday night. The front will struggle to push completely through the region, and a weak wave of low pressure will hold cloudiness and a shower chance in the region Wednesday, which will be a much cooler day with a north to northeast breeze as the front settles to the south of the region. A small area of high pressure moving by to our north will try to clear us out briefly Wednesday night but it appears now that the next wave of low pressure that I mentioned as an uncertainty for later in the week will be moving in fairly quickly. This will return thicker clouds and a rain chance to the region on Thursday as a warm front extending from low pressure to our west moves into our region. It remains to be seen how beneficial this rainfall will be – but the potential is there to receive some much needed precipitation to battle the ongoing / expanding drought. My current idea is that the low pressure area responsible for this will pass just to our northwest, putting us briefly into the “warm sector” Thursday night into Friday, after which a cold front will move through from west to east with additional showers for about the first half of the day Friday, although I’ll be able to refine and pinpoint those details as the week goes on.

TODAY: Any early morning ground fog patches dissipate. Sunshine otherwise with a few high clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy ground fog overnight favoring interior lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix – then more clouds from the west late in the day including the chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly west of I-95 and north of I-90. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but can be briefly gusty near any showers or storms.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Patchy fog, especially early. Highs 66-73. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 53-60. Wind NE to E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Becoming cloudy. Periods of rain midday on. Highs 61-68. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers through midday, then variably cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

By the September 27-28 weekend I think that the shower activity from the trough and frontal system is finally offshore, but we’ll have to watch for one more passing shower chance a time or two from a trough swinging through the region from the west – otherwise it looks like a mostly dry, cooler weekend. High pressure should build in with dry weather thereafter, and temperatures somewhat variable but averaging close to normal. Additionally, we may be eyeing a tropical system or hybrid system of sorts off the US East Coast at some point during this period, but the very early idea is that our weather pattern would keep such a system out at sea. Always pay attention to those potentials at this time of year.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)

There’s still a little uncertainty in the outlook for the early days of October, but the leaning is for drier weather to prevail with high pressure in control most of the time. There maybe a shot (or two) of chilly air from eastern Canada as well.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

High pressure overhead now shifts offshore through Tuesday. Today will feature pleasant air with slightly sub-normal temperatures, and another cool night occurs tonight with light winds. We’ll see the sun filtered by abundant high but fairly thin cloudiness today, streaming up from the south from a system well down the coast, but we won’t be hearing from that one. Fair weather continues Monday and well into Tuesday, but late Tuesday, particularly at night, and into Wednesday, a trough and frontal system from the west delivers higher humidity and our next chance of shower activity. This should push beyond the region with fair weather Thursday, though some clouds may linger, so at “day 5” I am going to lean away from complete clearing then. Autumn begins at 2:19 p.m. EDT Monday with the occurrence of the equinox.

TODAY: Sun & high clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: High clouds. Patchy ground fog. Lows 40-47 interior with coolest in lower elevations, 47-54 coast with mildest in urban areas. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 51-58. Highs 65-72. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

As we come down the home stretch of September we watch for a potential wave of low pressure to deliver a period of rain to start out this period, then there’s some uncertainty regarding the September 27-28 weekend, though I lean drier with just a few potential passing showers with a trough and cold front, then drier and cooler weather more likely the last couple days of the month.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-4)

October starts with some uncertainty in its weather outlook the first several days as we’ll again see a high pressure area in eastern Canada trying to push into the northeastern US while low pressure sits to the south. While some guidance tries to push that low pressure area up here for a rain chance, I have my doubts, as we’ve seen guidance do that several times recently only to have most of those not pan out correctly. Leaning drier over wetter and also a trend to the cooler side of normal again.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

High pressure brings fair and pleasantly cool weather to the region this weekend. Tonight will be a chilly one with perfect conditions for radiational cooling as the high pressure center sits right over the region. The high center shifts to the east early next week and we experience a warming trend. Eventually the next trough and frontal system makes its way our way with increased moisture, including the chance of some shower activity. Initially, my thoughts are to lean for less rainfall than models indicate as they usually over-forecast rainfall in a drought situation, which much of our region is in now. Nevertheless, we will watch for a chance of some wet weather from later Tuesday into Wednesday as it stands now, and refine the expectations in future updates. Autumn begins at 2:19 p.m. EDT Monday with the occurrence of the equinox.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 36-43 inland low elevations, 43-50 elsewhere – mildest in urban centers. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

Some guidance indicates additional unsettled weather in the September 25-26 time frame, and I can see reason to include them in the forecast, but with low confidence at this point. Drier weather dominates thereafter. Temperatures near to slightly above normal for the period overall.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

Leaning drier and milder than average for end September / start October. More to say about this as things become a bit more clear.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

A cold front passes by today with nothing more than a few clouds (no rain). Increased winds and lower dew points lead to elevated fire danger as well. Use caution with anything involving outdoor open flames or sparks, especially around drier brush. High pressure builds into the region tonight through Saturday with a much cooler air mass but less wind with time. High pressure settles overhead Saturday night – a perfect night for radiational cooling with some areas going below 40 for the first time in a long time and even a chance of a few patches of frost in the lowest elevations. The high pressure area keeps us fair Sunday into early next week – still cool Sunday, then an early week warm-up. By late Tuesday, clouds increase ahead of the next trough and frontal system, but as it stands now, any shower threat may be minimal and hold off until Tuesday night. Autumn begins at 2:19 p.m. EDT Monday with the occurrence of the equinox.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW, with gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45 inland low elevations, 45-52 elsewhere – mildest in urban centers. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

A trough and frontal system brings a chance of showers on September 24. Cooler/drier weather follows, but watching another trough for a shower threat at some point during the September 27-28 weekend (low confidence).

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable temperatures – no extremes heading through the last couple days of September into the first few days of October.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

Last week: Forecast more impact from passing low pressure at midweek / got virtually none. This week: Forecast less impact from passing low pressure at midweek / got more than expected (showers, a few thunderstorms, overcast, fog, drizzle). Mother Nature’s trickery, twice. Anyway, the unsettled weather departs today as low pressure drifts away and high pressure re-takes control of the weather, and it will be quite a mild afternoon too as we see a return of sunshine. Friday will be another very mild day with dry weather, even though a cold front passes by – not enough moisture left by then for anything more than passing clouds. The weekend features fair, cooler weather – coolest day Saturday on the eastern side of Canadian high pressure, and a chilly night as the high settles overhead, followed by a nice rebound during the day Sunday. High pressure shifts offshore with continued fair weather and a warm-up for Monday as we welcome autumn with the occurrence of the equinox at 2:19 p.m. EDT.

TODAY: Clouds, fog, drizzle, and a lingering shower give way to sunshine. Highs 72-79. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45 inland low elevations, 45-52 elsewhere – mildest in urban centers. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 72-79. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Warmer weather around at the start the period will be ended by a front and accompanying shower chance by September 24 which ushers in fair, cooler weather. Next system may bring additional showers by the end of the period, but that is a low confidence / uncertain outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

Continuing to lean toward drier over wetter, and variable temperatures with no extremes.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

A low pressure area that brought some heavy rain and areas of flooding to portions of the southern Middle Atlantic Coast will be weakening as it heads northeastward, passing southeast of our region through Thursday. While this system will provide varying amounts of cloudiness, its only rainfall offering will be in the form of a few showers near the South Coast tonight and early Thursday with no help for our ongoing and expanding drought. Friday, a sharp cold front moves through from north to south, but the timing on that front is such that it will allow Friday to be the warmest day of this week ahead of the arrival of a much cooler air mass for the weekend. The front will produce no showers, only some clouds, as it passes through. High pressure will deliver plenty of sunshine for the days of the weekend.

TODAY: Limited sun / lots of cloudiness. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH except 10-20 MPH by late day Outer Cape Cod.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Isolated to scattered showers South Coast overnight. Lows 51-58. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds through midday region-wide including a morning shower chance South Coast. Increasing sun west to east afternoon. Highs 72-79. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 38-45 inland low elevations, 45-52 elsewhere – mildest in urban centers. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

The Autumnal Equinox signals the start of fall at 2:19 p.m. September 22. That day and the day after look fair and mild with high pressure offshore. Watching for a shower chance middle of next week with the next frontal system, followed by fair and cooler weather later in the week.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

Leaning dry, seasonable, though some variation and maybe 1 or 2 brief shower chances during this period. Still a low confidence forecast period.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

An extensive deck of stratus and fog has enveloped much of the region overnight and will persist into this morning before dissipating to reveal sunshine again, which will be filtered at times by high clouds fanning up from low pressure to our south. That low, while not having a hard impact on our region, will pass close enough during midweek to thicken up its cloud shield and toss a few showers into the region later Wednesday to earl Thursday. Unfortunately, we won’t see a widespread, beneficial rain, which is badly needed as the overall dry pattern intensifies developing / existing drought conditions. After that system exits, high pressure regains control of the weather for the remainder of Thursday, through Friday, before being replaced by another one building in from eastern Canada with a cooler air mass to start the weekend. The cold front that introduces the Canadian high will pass by with little fanfare, other than a shift of the wind.

TODAY: Fog & stratus give way to sun & high clouds. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: High clouds increase above lower elevation low cloud / fog patches. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Limited sun / lots of cloudiness. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH except 10-20 MPH by late day Outer Cape Cod.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Isolated to scattered showers, favoring areas east of I-95 and south of I-90. Lows 51-58. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds and a chance of a shower – mainly south and east – to start, then breaking / decreasing clouds with more sun as the day goes on. Highs 72-79. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 52-59. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

High pressure shifts southward with fair weather early period and after a chilly start September 21, a moderation into early next week. Watch for a front middle of next week with maybe a shower threat, then another high pressure area moves in with more fair weather. Autumn begins with the occurrence of the equinox at 2:19 p.m. EDT on September 22.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Guidance inconsistency tosses some uncertainty into the outlook for this period, but for now I lean toward no big changes to the pattern overall, maybe a bit warmer than previously, relative to normal, and a couple shower threats from passing fronts, but the details uncertain and TBD over time as we approach the end of the month.