Friday September 26 2025 Forecast (7:24AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Here’s the outlook for the final 5 days of the month of September, including the first weekend of astronomical autumn. But let’s start with our Friday, today, featuring lowering dew points but still pretty mild to warm air behind last night’s cold frontal passage. This particular front, unlike several recent ones, is not delivering air as cool, so it’ll still be t-shirt and light jacket weather today with a sun/cloud mix, along with an active breeze at times. While I expect dry weather to be dominant, the approach and passage of an upper trough and surface reflection can trigger a passing shower, particularly north of I-90, from late afternoon to early evening, so watch for that. Any activity would be isolated and short-lived, but could provide a rainbow photo-up if occurring prior to sunset! This trough will introduce slightly cooler air for our upcoming weekend, which looks mainly dry. The only thing we have to watch for is a little light rain / shower activity on the northern edge of low pressure passing well to our south. This could bring some raindrops out of a period of heavier cloud cover especially south of I-90 in the Saturday night to Sunday morning time frame. Sunshine will be most abundant Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon. Early next week is one of those times where the weather will be interesting while not much is happening, at least visually notable. The set-up is large scale. As you know, the tropics in the Atlantic got more active this week, with Hurricane Gabrielle at sea, but now passing through the Azores as a post-tropical cyclone. TS Humberto is organizing and strengthening over water and its track is expected to be over water into next week, taking it west of Bermuda but well off the US East Coast. A disturbance with a very good chance of becoming the next named system (would be Imelda, but not there as of this update) has a less-clear future, but can be a threat to the US Southeast Coast in the days ahead. (There will be chatter about that in the comments and I’ll share future updates from colleagues as well.) Meanwhile, we’ll have a very mild Monday as a weak area of high pressure sinks to our south, but a strong cold front will move through the region on Tuesday, with no rain threat, but just some passing clouds and a notable wind shift. A large high pressure area will be building in eastern Canada, providing the push for the front and delivering cooler air by later Tuesday – that day itself still being on the milder side but not as warm as Monday. We’ll also notice, after fairly light winds on Monday, a pick-up of a north to northeast wind on Tuesday as part of the air flow between the big high in eastern Canada and the well-offshore and well-to-the-south tropical activity. So despite the fact that we are going into a quieter sensible weather stretch here, there is still much to follow.

TODAY: Sun filtered often by lots of high clouds into afternoon then developing puffy clouds from the west later with a slight chance of a passing shower, even brief downpour, mainly north of I-90 by late-day. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Patchy ground fog low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine most dominate morning and more limited afternoon. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A little light rain possible south of I-90. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Considerable cloudiness early to mid morning including the chance of a little light rain near the South Coast, then increasing sunshine. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH / coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 except 68-75 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)

Midweek next week features a cooler shot with a gusty breeze from the northeast between high pressure to the north and far-offshore Humberto. Fair, tranquil weather – cool nights & milder days – later next week. Potentially needing to watch moisture to the south by very end of period – more to say about this soon (could be remnant tropical moisture).

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)

Not a high confidence outlook with uncertainty regarding future behavior of tropical moisture to the south, but may hear from it in the form of wet weather to start this period before a drier pattern returns.

64 thoughts on “Friday September 26 2025 Forecast (7:24AM)”

        1. I had 2nd, 3rd and 5th letters in the right spot after 3rd guess and just gave something as a 4th guess, so I kind of fealt lucky that the 4th guess took 🙂 🙂 🙂

  3. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2025092600&fh=162&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2025092600&fh=162&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2025092600&fh=162&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    No matter the model and literally every op run is different in handling 94L, the building of strong high pressure over New England (which will eventually cool us down next week) will cause a significant wind and wave event (due to pressure gradient, if nothing else) in the mid Atlantic and will likely have a lot of impact.

  10. On weather channel fb page. I don’t follow WC so no clue why it showed up

    Future Imelda A Carolinas Threat Early Next Week As Humberto Becomes Third Hurricane Of 2025 Season

    I saw this comment and laughed out loud .. “Meanwhile in Atlanta, a coven of meteorologists, desperately seek for proper sacrifice to awaken the sleeping hurricane gods.”

    1. scrolling down, though it didn’t look great on infrared, it looks like the center passed directly over this ob.

      The had ESE winds ahead of the center to tropical storm force.

      Then the center passes overhead with light winds and the lowest pressure, around 990-991 mb, then, as with extra tropical cyclones, they got that more intense backside with a couple hrs gusting near or just over hurricane force with N winds and that slightly cooler/drier air charging through.

      Kind of like Milton last year, when Sarasota got a 100mph+ gust after the center passed by on a N/NW wind.

    1. Meanwhile, a massive autumnal high will be building to its north over New England, creating a large pressure gradient and thus, wind field well to its north, wherever 94L goes.

  15. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2025092606&fh=162&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Here is Euro-AIFS recent simulation on 94L.

    I hope folks in the SE don’t get too caught up on whether it makes landfall because with the building high over New England, the surge and waves are going to be a major problem even if the system doesn’t come within a hundred miles of landfall. The massive windfield over a vast part of the western Atlantic due to the pressure gradient is going to be a problem.

      1. Maybe getting a little GDPS support. That idea of 94L not escaping and then the northern jet stream changing to push it back towards the coast.

        The next 72-96 hrs, we’re bound to see every and any scenario.

  17. Not paying much attention to the westernmost system, model-wise, until we have an actual well-defined circulation to initialize. Model solutions without this may as well be “random”.

      1. There are some pattern scenarios that it occurs, but it wouldn’t be for around 8 to 12 days and the degree of uncertainty, given the current situation, is above average.

  18. I’m not sure if I can put into words how annoying it is to see people calling the system Imelda as if it’s already named.

    Yes, I have referred to the name myself, but included the caveat that this would be the name assuming it formed before anything else formed, and also done so very sparingly. Otherwise, I call it what it is – a tropical disturbance. If/when it becomes a depression it’s still not named. If/when it becomes a tropical storm, THEN it’s named, and THEN the name can be used in updates. Not before that – by anybody – the way it’s been used all over media / social media. Not everybody is guilty, of course, but many are. This is not how it’s done. There is a REASON why the name isn’t given to the system until it earns it. We need to stick to that.

  23. Can the Sox just wear green uniforms all the time? They’ve been incredible in their Friday night green.

    1. With tonight’s win they are now just 6-5 all time in the Green jerseys, with all 6 wins being walkoffs. 1 game over .500 is not “incredible”.

  24. I left a hs football game in Milford with the Sox down 3-1, and dropped off my friend and her daughter and told her “enjoy the comeback and win”. The game was on my radio on the way back and ended just as I pulled into my driveway. 🙂

  25. Now that we have a defined low on PTC 9 we can pay more attention to the model runs on it.

    I have a hunch on the trend we’re going to see develop rather quickly, but will refrain from full comment on it until tomorrow.

    Update should be posted fairly early tomorrow. Have a great night all. I’m going to watch something on my DVR to end my evening and maybe get some early thoughts down for tomorrow’s update.

  26. According to JR, the last average 80F is around September 30. I certainly won’t miss it. October should be all about the chill. In fact, I’m looking forward to the last 70F, whenever that is.

    1. Some areas will near 80F on Monday, but I think Boston may have seen their last one already. 🙂

  27. The Red Sox will face either Toronto or the Yankees on the road. Is it a 3 or 5 game series?

    I am still worried without Roman Anthony in the lineup. Oh well.

    2. Roman could return but only if the Sox make it deep in the playoffs. They need to make sure they play as close to error free ball as possible.

      1. Red Sox have had their postseason issues when key hitters were out of the lineup or not at their best:

        1946; Ted Williams (series .200 average)
        1967; Tony C. (out)
        1975; Jim Rice (out)
        2025; Roman Anthony (TBD)

        1. The 1st 3 were all in the World Series. If they get to the World Series in 2025 that is a successful season and Anthony should be back by then anyway.

          1. Yes, I know they were in the World Series. I was referring to the postseason in general. I believe Jim Rice got hurt in the Oakland series prior if my memory serves me.

            If there is any hope for a Duckboat parade this fall, Anthony is their only hope, at least imo.

            1. Never pin it on one person in a team game. Anthony or no Anthony, the TEAM has to perform to make it through the playoffs. Anthony would be a big help though, yes.

              We’ve seen countless examples in all team sports over the years of a key player going down and the team still winning it all – or coming close.

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