Thursday September 25 2025 Forecast (7:12AM)

97 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

Low pressure passes to our northwest and north today and tonight, and its warm front / cold front duet will result in a pretty wet day and evening here. Beneficial rainfall occurs for most of the region, with many areas seeing up to or over 1 inch of rain, and a few areas seeing up to 2 inches. General rain areas with a slight chance of embedded thunderstorms will traverse the region with the warm front during the day, and showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms will come along this evening with the cold front. Behind this system comes a day of mixed clouds and sun on Friday. Shower chances now appear absent, so dry weather is expected, and it will be fairly mild as there is not a big push of cooler air behind the cold front. High pressure builds in for Saturday with fair weather, and holds for most of Sunday, though as we’ve seen on several occasional recently, low pressure to our south will spread some cloudiness northward into the region on Sunday, although right now I think any rain from it stays south. This general idea will hold true Monday – limited sun, mild, but no rain.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Slight chance of thunder.storms. Areas of fog. Highs 66-73. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH, shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, especially coastal areas, during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm during the evening. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, then clear. Patchy fog forms in low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

Expected pattern would favor high pressure to dominate with dry weather here, while any rainfall and other impacts from potential tropical systems staying south of the region and out to sea to the southeast. A more pronounced north to northeast air flow brings in cooler air and creates a gusty breeze for a couple days early in the period between the center of high pressure and the offshore happenings.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Again leaning toward high pressure bring more dominant with a drier pattern here while we watch low pressure and maybe tropical remnants to the south to see if they can make it this far north … eventually.

97 thoughts on “Thursday September 25 2025 Forecast (7:12AM)”

  2. Thanks, TK.

    Garrett Crochet’s first regular season in a Red Sox uniform;

    18-5, 2.59 ERA; 205.1 IP; 165 H; 59 ER; 46 BB; 255 K

    In other words: True dominance

    1. What an additiona to the Team. When the acquired him, his stats did not impress me, BUT his performance has! Truly outstanding!!!

    2. He should win the Cy Young.

      Skubal from the Tigers couldn’t right the Tigers ship his last 2 starts (at least) and Crochet has won down the stretch and as Joshua mentioned, last night was dominant beyond his own standard.

    3. Those numbers compare very favorably to Pedro’s 1st year in Boston (1998):

      19-7, 2.89 ERA; 233.2 IP; 188 H; 75 ER; 67 BB; 251 K

      Pedro was 26 that season, just like Crochet is this season. Now, I’m not expecting Crochet to put up the silly numbers Pedro did the next few years, but it’s certainly an interesting comparison for now.

      1. Thank you. Believe it or not it was a simple 2.
        I tried a different starting word and it yielded
        the last 3 letters in the correct position. From there it was pretty easy. It all comes down to the starting word.

      3. You know how in real estate it is:

        location, location, location

        In Wordle it is:

        Starting Word, Starting Word, Starting Word.

    1. This is where I am on the minority side of opinion in loving the darker mornings like this. 🙂

      2. I enjoy dark mornings as you know. I’ve always enjoyed it when it gets dark early too. It’s a little more difficult now that I don’t drive after dark but I still love it.

  7. Looks like the GDPS and Euro op runs simulate the disturbed weather in the vicinity of Puerto Rico to make a landfall in the Carolinas.

    The Euro-AIFS does not.

    Interesting to watch the simulations in the next 72-96 hrs, which would bring us to about 24-36 hrs prior to a possible impact in the southeast.

    1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

      When I first looked at your post, I read it as
      the SOAP is getting closer! 🙂 🙂 🙂

  18. My initial thoughts on soon-to-be-Imelda:

    As TK and I have said many many many times – until there is an actual system, ignore what the models have to say. Especially with Humberto nearby and the fact that they may interact, confidence is even lower than normal on any one solution. Having said that, the bigger concern to me is the flooding that we’re going to see in the Carolinas and potentially the Mid-Atlantic states. The old saying is “Droughts end in floods”, and that certainly looks to be the case down there. That system is likely to be milling around down there for a few days, with a stream of moisture coming northward ahead of it. Whether it makes landfall or not, many models show the potential for 5-10 inches of rain down there over the next week or so, and if it develops and move inland, you can double those numbers (or more) in some spots. There is going to be widespread significant flooding, likely in the same areas that got crushed by Helene a year ago and still haven’t recovered.

    That should be the story the media is hyping now to get people prepared for what is going to happen.

    1. I was going to say that…

      We know how good the media is at getting everybody’s attention hyping the wrong things. In this case, that power could be used for a good reason…

      Totally agree and have the same concerns about the flooding.

    3. Led Zeppelin.

      His son, Jason I think, plays drums with Page, Plant and John Paul Jones.

      I can listen to Zeppelin songs and just focus on the drums, or other times the guitar, and other times what JPJ brought to the songs.

  20. Thanks, TK!

    1.13″ today
    2.41″ for the past two days

    Flash Flood Warning for the area just to the south of us in central and southern Bristol County MA.

    1. Amazing how not far away we had 0.45 yesterday and sit at 0.35 today

      How are you adjusting to retirement, Capt’n ?

      1. Yup.

        That was an adjustment for the Icon from its 00z run. The 00z run lost the identify of 94L pretty early in its run, not as much on 12z obviously.

  24. On the music front:

    We went to City Winery last night to hear the guitarist Lari Basilio. One of her band members was out sick, but she had an excellent drummer and phenomenal bass (6-string) player with her. Great evening!

  25. 4 operational runs from 12z (ICON, GDPS, ECMWF, GFS), 4 different solutions regarding the outcome of the situation with Humberto and “probable” Imelda (I don’t really like using the names before they are actually named, but it’s pretty likely).

    Just keep that in mind when looking at these runs. While it’s certainly far from unheard of or “unprecedented”, it’s not every season we see 2 formidable cyclones in close proximity with the opportunity to interact. Guidance won’t do well with it overall, and it’ll take a little while (post-mortem really) to figure out which model handled it best. We may find in fact that it’s a combination – that some guidance handled in portion of the evolution better than others, and other guidance did it in another part, etc. … It’s always very fluid – pun somewhat intended.

  26. Maybe the outflow from the strongest possible storm will blow the top off the other? If they interact to closely?

    1. You can have interactions like that.

      Usually you just have them begin to do the “Fujiwara” (alternate spelling of “Fujiwhara” is also acceptable), and the stronger storm will simply absorb the weaker one. When this happens, the stronger storm doesn’t suddenly miraculously have its wind speed increase by whatever factor the wind speed of the other storm was. Doesn’t work like that, despite a host of social media posts saying a “merging” would create a monster hurricane. Nope, sorry. That’s fantasy talk (or just lying). 🙂

      In fact, sometimes the absorption of the weaker storm causes the structure of the stronger storm to become disorganized for a time, resulting in it temporarily weakening.

  27. Did someone mention soup? I went outside for `fresh’ air and instead got hit with soupy – well, beef stew-like – air.

    If there is such a thing as reincarnation, I do NOT want to be reincarnated as a swamp dweller. Even if my reincarnated self turned out to be a crocodile, I’d be the most depressed crocodile around. I really loathe humidity.

    1. I had my bedroom window open maybe an inch. I just went in and it coild easily have been raining indoors the air was so thick

      Oddly, it’s 70/69 but I’m chilled. I seem to recall someone…maybe Dr S?….said he was chilled recently.

    2. I had a much more pleasant soup experience today – at lunch. 🙂

      A nice bowl of tomato / veggie / white bean soup with oyster crackers. It was exquisite!

  28. 1.78″ today.
    3.06″ the two-day total.

    The Sox’ Magic Number is 1. Boston could clinch a playoff berth without swinging a bat or throwing a ball tonight as Houston is playing the As right now in California. If the Astros lose, the Sox are in! The As are playing very well in September and could sweep the ‘Stros. Unfortunately, it’s too late for October play as they have been eliminated from playoff contention.

  29. WJIB: I remember WJIB playing 36 hours of Christmas music from noon on Christmas Eve to 6 pm Christmas night. These were the days before (some) radio stations played holiday music from Halloween to January! The Boston Globe printed the complete WJIB holiday playlist!

    2. Another great radar shot, this time for Gabrielle and also like a day or two ago, another well written tropical blog.

  33. Perfecf PJ day while watching the horse whisperer. Tough movie to watch and understand now why I didn’t watch when it came out We did attend a clinic by Buck Brannaman, the actual horse whisperer

  35. The mid Atlantic coast, wow …..

    Well, you potentially have 94F turning into something. You have Humberto adding some swells.

    But then, you might follow that up by being stuck in the pressure gradient with a strong autumnal high over New England over a massive fetch of western Atlantic Ocean sending an east or northeast flow into the mid Atlantic. Yikes.

    1. Ours isn’t but I’ve switched from short to long sleeved tees a few times. And had the ceil in fan on and off and on

      My guess is as wet as it feels here, it’s nasty there

      2. I have no idea what you mean by “running on fumes”. See SAK’s comment. 4-2 is a SUCCESSFUL road trip.

        They had a rough game LAST NIGHT. Look back to the previous several games and you will see this team is not running on fumes, at all. Like, at all.

  39. Gabrielle has been declared post tropical BEFORE reaching the Azores. They leave the warnings up because obviously there will still be the same kind of impact over the next several hours there – nothing they haven’t seen before.

    The storm will then weaken significantly and basically be a not-much-burger once it reaches Portugal. In fact, it will probably be quite weak, and be curving southeastward. The remnant low center may never even reach any land areas of the Iberian Peninsula. NBD…

    1. I had mentioned it several times leading up to this stretch in the blog forecast. Dew points above 60, even near 70, are not really uncommon for late September. All you need is to be in the warm sector of a low, and we were. 🙂

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