Wednesday September 24 2025 Forecast (7:16AM)

98 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

The overall pattern is a little wetter (and a bit warmer) than we’d seen for a while. The former is a step in the right direction in terms of slowing the progress of drought expansion in the region, so we’ll take what we can get. Ironically I mention a warmer pattern when today is going to be a fair number of degrees cooler than yesterday was across the region, but my words take into account the overall pattern, which features fewer Canadian cool shots for a while, rather than the comparison between 2 consecutive days. The warmth of yesterday is replaced by a cooler maritime air mass today behind a frontal boundary that moved slowly southward through the region late yesterday through overnight, triggering showers and even some thunderstorm activity in some locations. Today, the frontal boundary comes to a stop near or just off the South Coast, and a moist northeasterly to air flow across our region and some lift over the frontal boundary from the south and west will combine to generate some additional showers and drizzle, making today a grey, damp, cooler day overall. A more prominent low pressure area will make a northeastward run through the Northeast, passing northwest of our region Thursday through early Friday. This will drag that frontal boundary back north and northeast as a warm front Thursday, with periodic rainfall in our region, then following it up will be a cold front at night into early Friday with another round of showers and possible thunder. Current timing suggests that most of this activity will have moved through and offshore by dawn on Friday, with the daytime hours featuring a sun/cloud mix and just a low chance of an additional pop up shower. There also isn’t all that much cool air behind this particular “cold front” so look for generally above normal temperatures to dominate on Friday, and into the weekend as well which looks quite nice as high pressure builds in Saturday and tries to hang around on Sunday. In the previous update, I mentioned a shower chance on Sunday due to a passing trough, and while this disturbance is still likely to pass by, the moisture will be lacking for it to produce much more than some passing clouds, so currently I have removed the shower chance from Sunday’s forecast. Meanwhile, the tropics have gotten more active, and there are two potential systems in the western Atlantic, one of which is close enough to have a possible impact, eventually, on a portion of the US East Coast. In the comments section below, I am going to share a tropical blog written by colleagues.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Patchy fog and drizzle. Highs 66-73. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 53-60. Wind NE to E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 66-73. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH, shifting to SW by late-day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 58-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A passing shower possible. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, then clear. Patchy fog forms in low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of sun. Highs 68-75. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloud / sun mix. Highs 70-77. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Expected pattern would favor high pressure to dominate with dry weather here, while any rainfall and other impacts from potential tropical systems staying south of the region and out to sea to the southeast.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)

It seems we’ll be doing what we’ve often done again since late summer – watching low pressure to the south that likely stays down there with no impact up our way, and seeking systems from the west that might have a chance to bring some beneficial showers, but without much luck to that end. Overall pattern leans dry and seasonable.

98 thoughts on “Wednesday September 24 2025 Forecast (7:16AM)”

      1. Yeah, when looking for images for each system, I thought that worked well for Ragasa. (Yes, I wrote that blog last night).

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    65 now and that was the overnight low. Dp has dropped to 60.

    Wordle: 4

  3. Thanks TK !

    It took Lucas Giolito 98 pitches to record 14 outs last night. (He battled, only gave up 1 run, did well)

    The bullpen was lights out. I think it was 65 pitches to get the last 13 outs. Strike 1, then 2 to each batter. I don’t remember if Toronto got a hit or walk in the last 4 and 1/3 innings. Crochet tonight.

    1. 4 for me. I left it after 3 to wait till morning. The word came to me when I was up around 3:00 listening to rain. It did have me chuckling

      1. My 1st 3 guesses didn’t leave me much to work with.
        1 letter in correct position (last) and 1 out of position.
        I was really feeling frustrated and on the verge of giving up, when the word FINALLY came to me.

  5. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G18&sector=sea&band=10&length=24

    I’d say the pattern that went from mid August to mid September, thankfully, has been gone for a week now.

    If I recall correctly, the last drought monitor had 66% of the US in some kind of drought.

    That pattern, while really nice locally with the mild and dry weather, was not a great pattern and I am glad to see it gone. There’s actually some rain chances now for many.

    The link above is because one of the permanent features in that pattern was a 580+dm (500 mb ridge) in the Yukon and its obviously gone.

  9. The Detroit Tigers collapse is epic. I don’t use hyperbole that often. But this time it’s warranted. They had a 12.5 game lead over the Cleveland Indians in their division less than a month ago! They’re now in second place and may not even make the playoffs (I believe they’re currently out of a playoff spot).

    The 1978 Red Sox collapse is tame by comparison. Yes, they had a 14-game lead over the Yankees. BUT that was in July. And while they blew the lead and in fact were 3.5 games back of the Yankees in mid-September that year, they came back to be in a first-place tie with their rivals on the last game of the 162-game regular season. Hence, the tie-breaker 163rd game, which technically wasn’t post-season. We know what happened that day. Don’t remind me. I was there, in the grandstands. I cried like a baby, even though I was 13.

  11. Thanks, TK!

    0.70″ with about a half-inch coming in the last hour or so in moderate showers.

  13. Humid on my long run this morning. And so the cooler air doesn’t feel so cool.

    Looking forward to Canadian cool or even cold air at some point in October. I am really done with humidity. I realize we’ve been blessed with a gorgeous, mostly humidity-free September. Yet I yearn for something colder, drier, and bug-free.

  14. Vicki, your friend Teddy Ballgame (the Splinter) was right about 1986. Buckner’s error was only part of the problem that fateful October night, Game 6 of the World Series. I felt badly for Buckner for years. He was a gamer. He was also the left-fielder for the Dodgers, climbed the fence in vain, when Hank Aaron hit his 715th homerun to pass Babe Ruth.

    1. Agree. I felt badly for mixing up the name. It teaches me to be sure I am awake before I comment. But I absolutely agree with you.

  17. Orphan Black on Netflix will have your head spinning.
    Fascinating concept. Riveting story, however, contains violence and some sexual scenes. Not for the faint of heart, but other than that, quite a viewing experience.

    Tatiana Maslany is brilliant in this series.

      1. Not really. i can tell you what it is about, but I wouldn’t want to spoil it. You can watch a trailer and get an idea.

    3. Well done AROD!

      I somehow managed a 3 today with a very lucky guess after only have one letter in the wrong spot on my 2nd guess.

  20. You guys are great at Wordle. My daughter is very good at it, too. She introduced me to it. We also do the NYT word connections game. And there’s a trivia quiz, too, I think. I must say, I’m not especially good at any of the games.

    1. I really like the NYT Connections game. It can requires a bit of “loose thinking” – I don’t know how else to explain it.

      1. Agree. I like it till I don’t then take a break. This has been a long break so may need to get back to it. I have a fb friend who is really good at connections

  22. Boy, are the models struggling with what to do with 2 potential future tropical cyclones off the east coast.

    1. Keep it 🙂

      Tomorrow’s is more focused to the north and west of you.

      Now, interested in substitute teaching in middle school math 🙂 ?

          1. I know you are. 🙂
            Before leaving in June, my school wanted to know if I wanted to sub this school year.

            How’s this year going for you so far, Tom?

    1. Cool stuff! I love being able to see what stations have played. 🙂

      John Garebedian took over WJIB (The Memories Station) which was handled by Bob Bittner for a long time until his passing.

      The playlist has evolved and includes a lot of things never heard there before, and things rarely heard on radio now. I’m a fan.

      The sound of that station was a regular Saturday thing down in my mom’s place in recent years. Her radio is still tuned to it…

      1. Oh man, that was my Dad’s favorite station, too. I remember hearing WJIB’s signature ship’s bell and the sound of seagulls. Am I remembering right?

        1. You are. That’s back when they played “easy listening”. Bob acquired the call letters at some point and it became “The Memories Station”. And that is what J.G. is running now. The station moved from 740 to 720 on the AM dial, making it cleaner-sounding on that band, and also runs on the FM dial at 101.3.

        2. To this day, Boston radio is the best in the world. It used to be better. I think the 80s were the very best decade with an incredible array of stations to choose from. But it’s still quite good. The college stations are SO eclectic. My first exposure to bands like U2, Red Hot Chili Peppers, The Cure, and so many more, was on WZBC (Boston College radio) in the late 70s and early 80s).

          1. I loved the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s for Boston radio. Since the turn of the century, it’s largely gone into the crap tank, with a few exceptions.

            Of course, satellite radio and streaming services have been slowly killing it anyway, which is likely one of the reasons why so many stations are owned by very few entities and are nearly all clones of each other these days – with, as I said, a few exceptions.

            Makes me wonder how much longer it can go on at all.

  28. How improbable is that Euro scenario?

    Since 1851, only 5 tropical systems have made landfall in New England or Long Island after October 1 (2 hurricanes, 3 tropical storms), none in the last 100 years, and 4 of the 5 occurred in the 19th century.

  30. TK, my apartment kind of looks like the old house we used to live in. My sister visited from Vermont the other day and said she felt she was in “Dad and Mom’s house, except much smaller.” I have their ancient German radio from 1961 on a bistro table in the living room, along with many other things from the past, including an old replica 17th century New England glass barometer. You probably know what I’m talking about. You put some water into the glass container through the spout and add some food coloring (in my case, it’s green). Low pressure causes the water to rise up the spout. Very low pressure will cause the water to drip from the spout opening. High pressure has the opposite effect.

    2. Joshua, my son has my early 60s KLH stereo. The speakers were lost along the way but he found new ones. KLH had an amazing sound

    3. That’s great Joshua.

      One of my fondest memories of our house is a TV/stereo combination like this:
      https://images.offerup.com/EZpwIJ4cJqOydfbVaRskRJP6kPM=/1440×1920/512f/512fd28a71d04442991a358531516513.jpg

      My dad was a wiz at repairing the old tube radios and TVs, but eventually the picture tube died. Then he cut it into three pieces to remove the center TV section and reattached the two end sections to use it as a stereo. This was in our basement seemingly forever.

    1. And helping the Yankees out in the process as they beat the White Sox so Yankees now tied for first in the AL East.

  32. Thanks TK.

    1.17” of rain so far yesterday into today and 3.44” on the month of September here in Coventry. We’ll see how much more we can pull out of tomorrow.

    We actually ended up with 3.51” in August as well so really haven’t been terribly dry here. Just under 34” on the year so far with three months to go is pretty average for year to date.

  35. With the Astros loss, the Red Sox magic number has dropped to 1. That means that the only way the Red Sox do not make the playoffs is in they lose all 4 remaining games and Houston wins all 4 games they have left.

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