Tuesday September 23 2025 Forecast (7:02AM)

66 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

On this first full day of autumn – a taste of summer as high pressure sits offshore and a southwest wind blows, transporting in warmth and higher humidity. An approaching cold front will trigger a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm in a few locations, with activity favoring areas west of Boston by late day or evening. The main batch of shower activity is expected to hold off until tonight, however. As the front slows and settles slowly southeastward through the region, then comes to a stop just to our south, cooler air moves in, but it doesn’t dry out completely, and the chance of showers persists into Wednesday. Another area of low pressure tracking northeastward will drag that front back through as a warm front during Thursday, with a batch of rain traversing our area. While any rain is beneficial at this point, this still does not look like a big soaking. However, we will find ourselves briefly in the warm sector of this storm after the warm front goes by and before the cold front arrives, at which time additional showers and a few downpours can take place later Thursday to early Friday. Some guidance has indicated the shower activity persists into Friday, while other guidance has shown the system making a quicker exit. Leaning toward the quicker exit, but will leave the shower chance in the forecast for the first part of Friday for now. I’ve also considerably bumped up my temperature forecast for Friday based on the fact this system does not have a very significant push of cool air behind it. Currently I am expecting a narrow area of high pressure to provide fair, mild weather for Saturday.

TODAY: Lots of sun with patchy clouds trending to less sun with more clouds later in the day when a shower or t-storm may pop up mainly west of I-95 and north of I-90. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but can be briefly gusty near any showers or storms.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Patchy fog and drizzle. Highs 66-73. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 53-60. Wind NE to E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 61-18. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers through midday, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, then clear. Patchy fog forms in low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Lots of sun. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

A trough moving through from west to east may produce a passing shower on September 28 but most of that day looks dry. High pressure builds in beyond that with a stretch of fair weather expected to end September and start October. That said, there remains some uncertainty and low confidence in this forecast based on both guidance inconsistency and the potential for some tropical activity off or even near the US East Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Low confidence outlook period continues but also continuing to lean toward a drier pattern with variable but mostly near normal temperatures, with a quick cooler shot or two possible.

66 thoughts on “Tuesday September 23 2025 Forecast (7:02AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK

    Overnight low was 59, now 60.

    Wordle: Still working on it. Stuck with the middle 3 letters correct and the 1st and last make absolutely no sense so far after 4 guesses. No matter what I plug in for the 1st and last just don’t cut it. I am sure I am missing some crazy combination!!!!

    1. Yikes!!!!
      This one just would not come.
      With letter substitution, I got a word on 5th guess, but it was not it and it was a word I have never seen before.

      FINALLY on guess 6 I got it. Very common word, but I just didn’t see it. It goes that way sometimes.

      1. Good job. I “should” have seen it, but I didn’t. It happens.
        At least I finally got it and didn’t have a complete fail.

        28 consecutive games without a fail. Interesting game.

  3. Re; Gabriel,
    Did it develop in not so favorable conditions?
    Or were the conditions not modeled so well?

    1. It made it into a poorly modeled “good” area.

      They won’t defy physics and develop like that in a hostile area. It’s not possible.

  4. Thanks TK !

    On the first day of autumn, the weather Gods sent to thee, a bout of higher humiditeeeee ……….

      1. Excellent! Both of you. I just didn’t see it. Oh well.
        Some days we do and some days we don’t. 🙂

  9. This is an incredible Article. An unexpected benefit of the fires in Canada.

    Last summer, high heat and harsh sun scorched canola’s yellow flowers and ruined their pollen, knocking down yields across Western Canada. This summer, smoke from nearby wildfires shrouded the July skies and protected Penner’s young crop from the sun’s burning rays, resulting in more seeds per pod and more pods per plant.

    https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/unexpected-upside-canadas-wildfires-2025-09-23/

    2. I’ve actually mentioned this before, as my agricultural experience taught me. 🙂

      Also, the source of the article was the major client my work went to. Daily audience was over 250K people.

  18. Thanks TK. Rain totals next 6 days look pretty solid for most of New England. Kinda been a pattern that “tilts dry” but can’t get all the way there like it did last fall, and that’s doing enough to fend off significant drought especially in SNE and the mid-Atlantic. Central and Northern New England have been in worse shape and will definitely be welcoming the upcoming rain.

    TK has said it, but watch the tropics next week. Kind of ironic that we’ve had multiple “Internet hype events” for storms that either didn’t form or had no chance to affect the East Coast, yet the airwaves seem relatively subdued now even though next week is by far the highest chance of a direct tropical threat to the East Coast so far this season…

    1. Gabrielle is a powerful Cat 4 storm heading straight for Portugal eventually. Hopefully they can handle her. I would be curious as to how many tropical systems end up in Europe per season.

      2. By the time it gets to the Iberian Peninsula (if it ever does), it will be a fairly weak run-of-the-mill system with not a lot of wind, and just some pockets of heavy rain.

        Quite a few tropical systems end up as extratropical systems that impact Europe every year, just as this one may.

      3. Up to several per season, just about always non-tropical by arrival. It’s actually fairly common. As SAK mentioned, it will be a run of the mill system when it arrives there. The Azores will be impacted more significantly, but that is also not unusual.

  19. Thanks, TK!

    76/64

    Shanah Tova! to all those celebrating Rosh Hashanah today with family and friends! May the New Year bring us all peace, joy and health! 🙂

  23. A lot of scoreboard watching tonight. I will have the Sox on the TV and the phone on with the ESPN app open to MLB.

    One of the greatest days in sports was September 28, 2011 when on Day 162, the baseball race was changing minute-to-minute. The Sox had a miserable September and blew a large lead during the month. It came down to last day of the season as it did for other teams.

    Here’s a great read on one of the greatest and wackiest nights of baseball. Watch the second video called “Day 162.”

    https://www.mlb.com/news/remembering-dramatic-final-day-of-2011-season

  24. Hurricane Watch for the Azores. Gabrielle will likely impact that region in a few days as a hurricane, just before it loses tropical characteristics.

    Also, as noted, the hurricane may be a CAT 4 presently, but it’s over open water as a powerful storm and will be losing punch from here on out. Whatever is left of it when it reaches Portugal will be a light breeze and a few showers in comparison…

  25. Tomer Burg

    Go to this site and click on Gabrielle (left side). Click on models.

    https://www.polarwx.com/tropical/

    There are things here I am not understanding. 1) he is calling these tracks deterministic, but is that true for AI models? I thought AI models were sort of moving from deterministic to probabilistic. 2) For some reason, he is showing GenCast, GraphCast and DeepMind as all being separate. GenCast and GraphCast as well as NetMet are all part of DeepMind.

    I must have this upside down and backwards. Where is SAK?

    1. From Google’s Page:

      Our Models:

      Our experimental cyclone model: GDM’s newest ensemble (probabilistic) ML weather model, optimized for cyclones. This model outperforms WeatherNext Gen in our internal evaluations. It produces 15 day forecasts with a 6 hour time resolution, at 6h intervals.

      WeatherNext Gen (ensemble model): GDM’s first ensemble (probabilistic) ML model, published in Nature in Dec 2024 as ‘GenCast’. It produces 15 day forecasts at 12 hour intervals.

      WeatherNext Graph (deterministic model): GDM’s deterministic ML weather model, published in Science in Nov 2023 as ‘GraphCast’. It produces 15 day forecasts with a 12 hour time resolution at 12h intervals.

  29. Red Sox won 4-1. 🙂

    Magic Number = 4

    If that means they have to win 4 games for the rest of the way that could be a tall order.

    1. They don’t have to win 4. They need a combination of wins by them and losses by the team that would keep them out adding up to 4. That’s how the magic number works. It’s not just the “number of wins” a team needs.

    1. I’ve been forecasting a fairly wet day myself, but I’m skeptical about how beneficial the event is – potential under-performance here in SNE.

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