Monday September 22 2025 Forecast (7:25AM)

54 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

An area of high pressure will continue to provide fair weather today and into Tuesday as well as it shifts offshore, resulting in a slight warm-up today and a notable warm-up with increased humidity during Tuesday. This taste of summer will arrive just in time for the arrival of autumn (a little weather irony) as the equinox occurs today at 2:19 p.m. EDT, but it won’t last too long. Why? A trough, surface low, and its associated cold front will approach the region late Tuesday with a shower and thunderstorm chance, primarily north and west of Boston, with any remaining activity from this getting into the rest of the region in scattered to clustered showers form (maybe a thunderstorm) Tuesday night. The front will struggle to push completely through the region, and a weak wave of low pressure will hold cloudiness and a shower chance in the region Wednesday, which will be a much cooler day with a north to northeast breeze as the front settles to the south of the region. A small area of high pressure moving by to our north will try to clear us out briefly Wednesday night but it appears now that the next wave of low pressure that I mentioned as an uncertainty for later in the week will be moving in fairly quickly. This will return thicker clouds and a rain chance to the region on Thursday as a warm front extending from low pressure to our west moves into our region. It remains to be seen how beneficial this rainfall will be – but the potential is there to receive some much needed precipitation to battle the ongoing / expanding drought. My current idea is that the low pressure area responsible for this will pass just to our northwest, putting us briefly into the “warm sector” Thursday night into Friday, after which a cold front will move through from west to east with additional showers for about the first half of the day Friday, although I’ll be able to refine and pinpoint those details as the week goes on.

TODAY: Any early morning ground fog patches dissipate. Sunshine otherwise with a few high clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy ground fog overnight favoring interior lower elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix – then more clouds from the west late in the day including the chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly west of I-95 and north of I-90. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but can be briefly gusty near any showers or storms.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Patchy fog, especially early. Highs 66-73. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 53-60. Wind NE to E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Becoming cloudy. Periods of rain midday on. Highs 61-68. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Lows 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers through midday, then variably cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

By the September 27-28 weekend I think that the shower activity from the trough and frontal system is finally offshore, but we’ll have to watch for one more passing shower chance a time or two from a trough swinging through the region from the west – otherwise it looks like a mostly dry, cooler weekend. High pressure should build in with dry weather thereafter, and temperatures somewhat variable but averaging close to normal. Additionally, we may be eyeing a tropical system or hybrid system of sorts off the US East Coast at some point during this period, but the very early idea is that our weather pattern would keep such a system out at sea. Always pay attention to those potentials at this time of year.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)

There’s still a little uncertainty in the outlook for the early days of October, but the leaning is for drier weather to prevail with high pressure in control most of the time. There maybe a shot (or two) of chilly air from eastern Canada as well.

54 thoughts on “Monday September 22 2025 Forecast (7:25AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    49 overnight.

    Patriots have some work to do, but I do see some real potential in Drake Maye. He is getting there.

    Red Sox. Nip and tuck down the stretch. Hopefully they make it.

    Wordle: 4

    2. Have been thinking the same re Drake.

      4 for me also. Thought of word for guess 3 but went with a different one

    1. You got it though. I thought it was a pretty interesting word.
      My 1st 2 guesses yielded 1 letter each, out of position.
      So I tried a random guess without one of those letters
      and got the last 3 in correct position. So for the 4th guess, I was working with 4 known letters, 3 in correct position. Didn’t take long from there to obtain the correct word.

      It all comes down to how lucky one’s guesses are. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Saw your request on Wordle but I have been so busy lately that I barely have time to get on this blog. Actually doing another weather equipment study right now … different from the last one.

      I will get to Wordle but maybe not until after the holidays!

  10. My string of fives for Wordle continues! 🙂

    I really thought it would be my fourth guess, but it wasn’t. At least it gave me the three middle letters correct.

    1. What I think is happening is that the daily words used
      mostly no longer fit with standard optimal starting words.
      Sure there are optimal words starting from scratch, but
      1500+ words have been eliminated. That CHANGES
      what words that are now optimal.

      One would have to create a script with all of the used words and the remaining possible words to come up with a current optimal starting word.

      I find myself using different starting words each day.

      My standard starting word has been yielding ZILCH or at most one letter out of position. That just doesn’t cut it.

      Just my Wordle thoughts for today.

  14. I am not implying 4 Cat 5’s in the Atlantic or anything ….. but if the models hints are a bit accurate, then the atmospheric mess towards the tropics (in my opinion) we’ve seen since mid August is about to settle down ….. La Nina has somewhat returned.

    I think the tropics are about to have quite a next 10 days to 2 weeks, at least.

    The one to be most worried about possibly may be something in the very long range related to the central America gyre. Those sometimes lead to the monsters in the Gulf in the 2nd half of the season. (Michael, Ian, etc)

  15. The fact that it will be late September into October, by sun angle strength and length of day will mask that we may have better warm setups (higher 500 mb heights) in this time frame than we did in the 2nd half of August thru mid September.

    Bizarre ………

    Again, not saying high 80s and 90s are coming back and there can be a real cool shot sneaking in too, but, when early October’s highs avg dip into the upper then, mid 60s, don’t be surprised if were getting 75-83F then.

  17. Thanks, TK:

    I have done some reading on the history and aftermath of the Hurricane of 1938. Here are some photos of the damage from the New Bedford and Padanaram section from a rare book of photos published by the New Bedford Standard-Times:

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/9pgNpKLFPRFWneTM6

    Jimmy B, do you know of these areas? I believe you live in Padanaram.

    In my research of that storm, I am still amazed that New Englanders did not know that the hurricane was coming. Everyone went to work and school on that day. Even the Boston Bees (Braves) played a home doubleheader before the infield pop-ups ended up in the grandstands and the plywood, outfield fence blew down.

    A young meteorologist at the Weather Bureau forecasted the storm intensifying and barrelling into Long Island and southern New England, but was overruled by senior forecasters and, therefore, warnings were never issued until it was too late.

    I read that, in at least one instance, a school bus, with children and its driver, was swept out to sea by the storm surge on the coast. Because no warnings were given, school and work got out at regular time and people headed home in the storm.

    New Bedford Harbor was flooded out three times in the 1938, 1944 and 1954 hurricanes. After Hurricane Carol in August of 1954, the Army Corps of Engineers built an extensive hurricane barrier in the early to mid 1960s. The barrier has three “doors”: one on the Padanaram side of New Bedford, one on the Fairhaven side and a large barrier protecting New Bedford Harbor.

    I was amazed to find out that the doors of this hurricane barrier are closed not just for major storms. The doors are closed regularly 20-24 times a year for storms and high tides and king tides at the time of the full moon!

    Jimmy B, do you know of the Cove Surf and Turf on Cove Rd.? Best seafood in the world! Mrs. Fantastic (who is from New Bedford) and I take a ride down to the Cove for lunch every once in a while. The restaurant is right next to hurricane door on the Padanaram side. I think the restaurant is on the “wrong side” of the hurricane barrier and would be wiped out in the event of the “Big One!”

    I found this amazing drone footage of the hurricane barrier:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4locoph2dMg

    There are paths on top of the barriers that the City of New Bedford opened in the 2010s called the CoveWalk that walkers, joggers and bicyclists can use for recreation.

    1. Thank you, Captain. I’ve told the story befoee

      There was so little awareness of how serious or how close the storm was although my mom said they knew there was something heading their way. My mom and her mom decided to head to Boston for the day taking the trolly from Belmont to Harvard square and then the subway into Boston. They got back to Harvard square later in the day, but the Harvard square trolleys had been stopped due to the danger and damage of the storm.They started to walk back to Belmont. A cab driver from Belmont’s Morse Taxi in Cushing square drove by just as they got to the Mt Auburn cemetery area. He recognized them as neither drove and often used their cabs. He stopped to get them and drove them home. My mom always felt he saved their lives. When he stopped for them, she said wires and trees were falling everywhere.

    3. As I think about it, even in 1954 for Carol, there was no early warning of arrival. And that’s 16 years later.

    1. All celestial bodies and their relationships / interactions are accurately predictable. So we know the moment the sun will cross the equator on its way to the southern hemisphere – aka the autumnal equinox. Same goes for all the others. 🙂

  20. 71.4 here.
    Was just outside. It felt HOT out there!!! My body thermometer
    must be whacked out!!! I mean it felt REALLY HOT!!!!
    Of course it is not, but that is how it felt to me.

    1. Low 70s temp, upper 50s dew point. Yep, I think you need to be calibrated JPD! 😉

      Although you will notice the dp being a bit higher as it has been pretty low much of the time since August.

      1. I feel hot very easily. Do you have a calibration device for humans? 🙂 🙂 🙂
        Likewise, I am completely comfortable outside with temps
        in the mid 50s. Go Figure. 🙂

  21. According to Ch. 7, it’s going to be very humid (DP’s 60s) starting tomorrow through the entire week into the weekend. YUCK!!!!!!

    I really thought we were totally done with HHH for the rest of the year. DOUBLE YUCK!!!

    At least we will be getting beneficial rain as that now appears to be a lock for a change.

    1. It’s not going to be hazy hot and humid.

      Tuesday is the only day that “feels like summer”.

      High humidity does not automatically mean “hot”.

      It means high dew point. That usually happens when we have some wet weather around. 🙂

  24. I just looked at the Mt Washington weather conditions:
    https://xmountwashington.appspot.com/csc.html

    It shows that at midnight this morning the temperature was 47.4F and the dew point was -16.8F. These numbers give a relative humidity of about 6%.

    I wondered if this could really be correct. Then I found this, so it’s certainly possible:
    “The lowest relative humidity recorded at Mount Washington was 1.4%, which occurred on October 9, 2006,”

    It’s interesting that the record low was recorded right around this time of year.

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