Sunday September 21 2025 Forecast (9:40AM)

85 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

High pressure overhead now shifts offshore through Tuesday. Today will feature pleasant air with slightly sub-normal temperatures, and another cool night occurs tonight with light winds. We’ll see the sun filtered by abundant high but fairly thin cloudiness today, streaming up from the south from a system well down the coast, but we won’t be hearing from that one. Fair weather continues Monday and well into Tuesday, but late Tuesday, particularly at night, and into Wednesday, a trough and frontal system from the west delivers higher humidity and our next chance of shower activity. This should push beyond the region with fair weather Thursday, though some clouds may linger, so at “day 5” I am going to lean away from complete clearing then. Autumn begins at 2:19 p.m. EDT Monday with the occurrence of the equinox.

TODAY: Sun & high clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: High clouds. Patchy ground fog. Lows 40-47 interior with coolest in lower elevations, 47-54 coast with mildest in urban areas. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT / THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows 51-58. Highs 65-72. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

As we come down the home stretch of September we watch for a potential wave of low pressure to deliver a period of rain to start out this period, then there’s some uncertainty regarding the September 27-28 weekend, though I lean drier with just a few potential passing showers with a trough and cold front, then drier and cooler weather more likely the last couple days of the month.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-4)

October starts with some uncertainty in its weather outlook the first several days as we’ll again see a high pressure area in eastern Canada trying to push into the northeastern US while low pressure sits to the south. While some guidance tries to push that low pressure area up here for a rain chance, I have my doubts, as we’ve seen guidance do that several times recently only to have most of those not pan out correctly. Leaning drier over wetter and also a trend to the cooler side of normal again.

85 thoughts on “Sunday September 21 2025 Forecast (9:40AM)”

  1. Good morning and thanks tk.

    I am just chilly today. One of those mornings where you wake up chilled to the bone. I’ll be laughing come april because this temperature will have me sweating by then after getting through winter as it always does.

    1. Good job on Wordle today!

      I got a five. I thought of the answer on the fourth guess, but went with a more common word instead. Oh well…

      2. Thank you. It was interesting.
        I got 2 letters out of position on 1st guess and an additional one out of position on the 2nd guess. Tried a few combinations and stared at it and it just came to me. Funny game, it is.

    2. It certainly would help !!

      Because the Guardians and Tigers play a 3 gm set starting Tuesday.

      If the Sox win tonight, it guarantees them to be at least even with the Tigers in losses and then 1
      less loss than the Guardians.

      Then either one team, the tigers or guardians are going to take 3 more losses or the other scenario is ….. one team is getting 1 more loss and the other is taking on 2 losses.

      So, massive tonight for the Sox.

      And Toronto is better than Tampa, it’s in their place and the Yankees are close behind, so, that’s going to be a tough series for the Sox.

      The kid yesterday who pitched for the Sox was part of the deal for Devers.

      If they develop all these young pitchers right and combine them with Crochet and Bello, they’ll have top of the line starting pitching in seasons to come.

  12. Chaos and inconsistency on global guidance leads to a lot of “modeled uncertainty” but the best idea is to just go with persistence overall (basically how my 6-10 & 11-15 segments are worded).

    SAK said the other day to me when we were chatting about the evolution of the uncertain and inconsistent long range progs that there’s basically nobody who can be certain how it’s going to go out at that range – and I agree with him 100%. This is why I’ve been keeping my wording very generic and leaning toward “no big changes” in the 6-10 and 11-15.

    Mets like him and myself (JMA and others) have spent a long time tweaking the ability to know when to know that guidance is more unreliable than “typical”. When it comes up, you can generally trust that assessment.

  13. Wordle: miracle 6

    I thought I had it at 3, 4 and 5, looking for that last letter.

    To be honest, looking at my keypad and what I had left, I guessed at 6 and got lucky.

  15. Sue:

    I believe congratulations are in order for Capt. Bus, you and your family for a big Laker win versus Arlington Friday night! Woo-Hoo!

    1. That next week humidity spike simulates with some with what would be some beneficial rains for some parts of the region, so, if a setup like this somewhat verifies, at the expense of some uncomfortable air, there could be a rainfall benefit.

      Time will tell.

  19. What a shame Maye through an INT just before the end of the half with 3rd and goal. Hope that is not what costs them the game.

    1. Ugh! I remember him!

      On another note, Milan Lucic is on a Professional Tryout (PTO) with the St Louis Blues.

  21. Stephenson had the most fumbles (7) in the NFL last year.

    Ever since Brady left, this team always finds plenty of ways to lose. 🙁

        1. Ohhhh ok. Well darn. I thought two didn’t sound like the right number. Serves me right for trusting AI

  23. Both Tigers and Guardians have lost this afternoon, so a win tonight by the Sox would be monumental.

    This because Cleveland and Detroit play each other the next 3 games.

    With a win tonight, Sox would be 1 ahead of the Tigers and 2 ahead of the Guardians and then some permutation of losses are guaranteed to one or both of those teams in the next 3 games.

    1. The Sox already own the tiebreaker with Cleveland (and the Yankees and Astros). The tiebreakers with Detroit and Seattle are still yet to be decided. They already lost the tiebreaker with Toronto.

      1. Thank you SAK !!

        It’s so much fun to watch these games. I sure missed this September feel.

        And I like how the Bucs game got the Sox game rescheduled to this evening. No need to have them playing in 93F blazing sun heat.

  24. Sloppy sloppy sloppy on offense. Thought defense did good. Much better in terms of yardage. Defense cant do much about thier offense coughing the ball out 5 times. Gotta be thinking chism sees the field next week and pop is on the bench

  28. A beautiful sunset to end a CRAPPY day! 🙁

    Now should the Sox lose as well that would be akin to getting struck by lightning TWICE in one day.

    The Red Sox are going to drive me crazy for the rest of the month and the Patriots for the rest of the year!

    1. I have a different take on the Sox.

      They’ve come up clutch so far in Tampa when I thought the playoff crunch might be causing some players to tighten up a bit. (2-4 last homestand and losing 2 of 3 to A’s)

  29. Hey Vicki, Mac Jones with another solid game AND just led the 49ers down the field, down 2, with under a minute to go, to set up the winning field goal, they just won 16-15.

    He’s no Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson, but goodness what BB did to him is criminal. Under an offensive guru like Kyle Shanahan, he’s playing like a decent, dependable QB.

  31. Sox 85-71
    Tigers 85-71
    Cleveland 84-72
    Houston 84-72

    4 scenarios for tigers /Cleveland series (2-1 either way or sweep either way)

    If it’s Tigers 2-1, then Cleveland is 85-74
    If it’s Cleveland 2-1, then both are 86-73
    If Detroit sweeps, then Cleveland is 84-75
    If Cleveland sweeps, then Detroit is 85-74

    The Sox have to get one in Toronto, I feel good it’s Giolito, Crochet and Bello, but it’s still not going to be easy. The Sox could play well and get swept which would leave them at 85-74, so the one scenario that doesn’t bode well for the Sox is if Cleveland wins the series 2-1. If that happened and the Sox don’t win one in Toronto, they’d be a game behind both of them.

    And Houston has their next 3 at Oakland who has been playing well, so that’s no easy task either.

    I’ll take 2 out of 3 this weekend and anytime in Tampa, but this one would have been so helpful tonight.

    Day off tomorrow for most of baseball thank goodness.

    1. Either Detroit or Cleveland will win the central division. Whom ever ….. the remaining 3 teams are playing for the last 2 wild cards.

    1. Check out my new discussion – and don’t count anything as a lock toward beneficial rain – not in this pattern.

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