DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 30 – MAY 4)
We’re about to say goodbye to April and this last day of the month will feature breezy, mild, but dry conditions behind a cold front. We’ll have some clouds, both patchy mid level leftovers drifting southeastward in the air flow behind the front, and some high cloudiness fanning up in the higher level southwesterly winds over the region, so sun will not be unlimited today. High pressure builds in tonight and Thursday. Thursday’s weather will be quite nice – more sun, less wind, mild, but a cooling sea breeze near the coast. High clouds do increase again later Thursday ahead of a warm front. Our next unsettled weather stretch is poorly timed for Friday into the weekend, but there are going to be some “nicer” times embedded in that stretch – a matter of working out the details in the shorter term over the next couple days to highlight them. The best guess at this point is that warm frontal showers (and a possible thunderstorm) occur in a several hour window Friday morning, and the approach of a cold front can trigger another shower or thunderstorm later in the day from west to east. The problem: This cold front is not likely to make a clean pass through the region, but get hung up, and allow another wave of low pressure to come up along it during Saturday. Some guidance holds rainfall back until later Saturday, or at night, while other guidance brings it in more hastily. I’m leaning toward the quicker scenario for this at the moment, with occasional showers any time that day. The front should be pulled through for a cooler Sunday, but it may remain somewhat unsettled as upper level low pressure swings through the region – so I can’t leave out the shower threat that day in the current version of the forecast.
TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny through early afternoon, then increasing high clouds. Highs 67-74, cooler coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Becoming mostly cloudy. A few showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring early-morning and late-afternoon, including a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible early. Lows 51-58. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Additional showers likely. Highs 62-69. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. Lows 50-57. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MAY 5-9)
There’s a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for next week. Our various sets of guidance show different details, but the general idea is the evolution of a blocking pattern. The set-up of low pressure vs. high pressure determines wet weather (and magnitude of it) vs. dry weather, air flow and temperature. Current leaning: Fair weather May 5. Unsettled with marine air flow middle of next week. Fair weather end of week.
DAYS 11-15 (MAY 10-14)
Expecting a blocking pattern to be dominant heading into mid May. Again, unsettled weather vs. fair weather TBA, but suspect as features shift slightly we’ll have a bit of both. Some recent indications of wetter weather being pushed to the south and a drier, cooler scenario for this region. Will monitor trends on reliable guidance.