DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 29 – MAY 3)
High pressure moves offshore and a southwesterly air flow increases today between it and an approaching cold front. We’ll have a warm day as a result, but the South Coast will be cooler where a southwest wind comes off the ocean water. The aforementioned cold front may trigger a rain shower tonight as it moves through the region, and this will be followed by breezy, dry and only slightly cooler weather Wednesday. High pressure builds in for Thursday – a nice day but with a cooling sea breeze near the coast. Clouds start to move in later Thursday ahead of a warm front, and a this leads to an more cloud-filled Friday sky with rain showers possible both early in the day with a warm frontal passage, and late-day with an approaching cold front. Isolated thunderstorms are possible as well. Unfortunately, the trend for Saturday as for more unsettled weather as the cold front slows down and a wave of low pressure moves up along it, producing additional rain showers.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65 Cape Cod, 66-73 remainder of South Coast, 74-81 elsewhere, warmest over interior valley locations. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH in the afternoon.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A possible rain shower overnight. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Sunny through early afternoon, then increasing high clouds. Highs 67-74, cooler coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Becoming mostly cloudy. A few showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm overnight. Lows 53-60. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring early-morning and late-afternoon, including a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible early. Lows 51-58. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Additional showers likely. Highs 62-69. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (MAY 4-8)
Upper level low pressure brings a cool-down and still can trigger a shower May 4. Briefly fair May 5, then additional unsettled weather possible as upper level low pressure reorganizes nearby as a blocking pattern evolves. Temperatures variable – averaging not far from normal.
DAYS 11-15 (MAY 9-13)
Continued indications of a blocking pattern with upper level low pressure in control of our weather – an unsettled pattern with near to below normal temperatures.
Good morning and thank you TK.
made 75 here yesterday.
49 overnight and up to 56 currently.
Really nice.
Thanks TK !
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G19§or=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24
Wondering if this is the thinnest cirrus ever or midwest dust ….
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif
SPC took the NY State 2% tornado contour to 5% chance.
Temperature climbing fast! Already up to 68 here.
The ocean cooled down overnight as expected. Water temperatures are currently missing from both Boston Buoy and Stellwagen. Eariler it was 46 and change at Boston Buoy.
Thanks, TK!
Thanks TK
Up to 73 here as the rate of climb has slowed significantly. 🙂
NOT that I am complaining as it is absolutely BEAUTIFUL out!!!!
Thank you ,TK
73 here
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2025042912&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Friday’s warm sector features dps in the upper 50s compared to today’s upper 30s.
In July, upper 50s is a relatively dry day, but after months of being used to dps in the 30s or a lot lower, that might be quite noticeable to many.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2025042912&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
The weak wave of low pressure Saturday, according to the GFS is up over central Mass, keeping those dps around 60F. (If the GFS is correct). More showers on a Saturday, shocker 🙂
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025042912&fh=102&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfctd-imp&rh=2025042912&fh=78&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Euro also has the higher dps Friday
and also appears to show convective potential late Saturday evening
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025042912&fh=108&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=
Probably overdone.
Heading down to Sarasota tomorrow. Back to RI on the tenth. Im hoping to miss most of the upper level low stuck pattern. Temperatures down there mostly upper eighties dewpoints mostly 65°-72°. Afternoon storms will start to get more frequent with the sea breeze interactions, East coast West coast boundaries. They’re is desperate need of rain.
Here on St. Thomas we’re at the beach, but it’s not a beach day. Up to 1.9″ over the past few hours and still pouring. We’re in port until 9pm, so things should improve in a while to salvage part of the day
Hope you can salvage part of the day !!
Enjoy wherever you head next !!
Ended up with 2.21″ there. It did dry out so we got to enjoy a little beach time at Sapphire Beach. We’re back in Charlotte Amalie where it’s partly sunny. We don’t leave port until 9pm. Tomorrow we’re in Tortola, BVI.
79.4 here. So close to 80.
The atmosphere has today provided exhibit A and beyond a reasonable doubt why New England springs and even early autumns are colder or cooler than they should be.
Look what happens at 42/43N latitude when you have a modest warm airmass and a sunny day. Not 65F …… 80F.
Too much of the regions spring weather comes from Hudson Bay, SE Canada or the cold Atlantic. I’m going to cement over Hudson Bay when I retire 🙂 🙂 🙂
No thank you!! You can have it all to yourself!
Just physics & nature doing their thing. Location. Location. Location. 🙂
Interestingly enough, but also not surprisingly, the ECMWF and GFS both indicate significant blocking, but the ECMWF’s version is one in which all the wet weather is to the south of New England and we have a long dry spell with a generally maritime air flow.
The GFS is a wetter scenario.
I choose door #2, the EXMWF
ECMWF
Me too 🙂
We got to 79.6 today. Not quite to 80, but close enough. 🙂
Of course, unless it spikes back up again.
Today ranged from 46F to 82F. We spent much of the day at Hampton Beach. It was pleasantly warm and breezy. It was also packed like in summer because this week is Spring Recess for NH public schools.
I was up there yesterday for about 1 hour. It was cool with a SSE breeze when I was there but very nice! Went in the water briefly (shin deep, not an actual swim). 46 degree water at this time.
There were some people completely in the water today. We noticed two young boys swimming around and it appeared that they were still in the water about 20 minutes later when we walked the other way past them.
I was in the water today too! Of course, the water here is 83 degrees, but that’s a minor detail.
Thanks TK. Of course weekend looking crappy.
Great seeing everyone the other night. Always all are welcome. We will look at the fall/early winter for the next one. Happy to be party planner!
I’ll find a different location next time. Change it up.
Thanks for putting it together.
Duran, first batter up, just hit a homer. Sox up 1-0.
Bergman also hits homer in 1st. Sox 2-0.
Red Sox got 4 solo shot homers in 1st 3 innings.
A friend told me her son in mt Washington valley said they reached 80 today
You all see the heat in SE Asia/Middle East. Pakistan reaching 118 degrees already.
Boys the euro looks ugly for the weekend and beyond.
Spring in NE.
The run before that was briefly wet, then a longer dry spell. So what we take from that is: Model inconsistency and guidance-use uncertainty. 🙂
New post…