Saturday September 27 2025 Forecast (7:28AM)

65 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

A generally dry and mild weekend, mostly dominated by high pressure, will be interrupted, kind-of, by an episode of cloudiness and maybe a little rain near the South Coast, mainly tonight as a plume of mid level moisture extending off low pressure to our south goes quickly by in the mid and upper wind, rendering the interruption nearly negligible. So, a nice weekend really. We hold onto the above normal temperatures Monday as well with more fair weather as high pressure continues its hold on the region. But some changes follow this as we say bye to September on Tuesday and hello to October on Wednesday. A strong cold front will move down from the north and northeast, pushed by a big Canadian high pressure area that will not only deliver much cooler air, but also more wind, as the pressure gradient tightens up between that high and tropical shenanigans occurring well to our south and southeast at the time. Shenanigans you ask? Well, these are the long-talked-about, well-advertised, and in some cases over-hyped tropical cyclones, you know the ones that some social media sites warned would “Fujiwhara” (or “Fujiwara” depending on your preferred spelling) into a monster hurricane that would basically swallow the entire eastern part of North America, and variations of that scenario. I hope that by now many folks are becoming wiser to the bogus information out there and paying less attention to it. What’s really up with these systems? Well, as of early this morning, we have Hurricane Humberto, located well south southeast of Bermuda and a significant distance northeast of the Leeward Islands. While Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane, the current forecast track takes it northeast of the Caribbean, well east of the Bahamas, well off the US East Coast, and re-curving west of Bermuda, sparing direct major impact there. If this takes place, that’s about as best-case scenario as you can have with a hurricane in the place it’s in now. Also, the second system, erroneously called “Imelda” over and over, before it’s named. Yes, it will likely end up with that name, because it’s likely to become a tropical storm today with nothing else in the basin to develop before that would happen, but until that moment it’s referred to in the present as “Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine”. This system is forecast to become the “I” storm, strengthen steadily but not rapidly, maybe reaching minimal hurricane status over the next few days while approaching the US Southeast Coast. Now that model initialization is a little more trustable thanks to having a low center to initialize for the system, its solutions can be looked at a little more seriously. And immediately a trend emerges, and that is for a non-landfall scenario – a temporary impact with some heavier rain bands and flooding potential for portions of the Carolinas, coastal impact from heavy surf, but a non-direct hit, and in fact a situation where the storm then starts to move away from the coastline, following in the wake of Humberto out to sea. Will this be the final solution? We don’t know yet, but it’s a trend worth paying attention to…

TODAY: Sunshine become more limited as the day goes on. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A little light rain possible south of I-90. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early clouds eastern and southern areas, then sunshine dominates. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82 except 68-75 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)

Cool and breezy October 2 as high pressure sits to the north, then it builds over the region with continued dry weather and more tranquil conditions – chilly nights and slightly milder days heading through the balance of this period. The previous outlook discussed the need to watch tropical moisture to the south for possible late-period impact, but this was dependent on tropical moisture coming from the westernmost tropical system mentioned above, assuming a scenario that took it fully into the US Southeast. If the current trend of keeping it more offshore and eventually turning it away from the coast ends up the outcome, that moisture would be unavailable to be pulled northward by the pattern and we would never hear from it here. This scenario would allow high pressure to maintain control through the period. Again with the outcome still not certain, the confidence level of this outlook remains lower than average.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)

A lot of uncertainty which is always triggered by previous uncertainty (you know how it goes by now). Leaning dry to start, wet weather chance later in the period with temperatures not far from normal.

65 thoughts on “Saturday September 27 2025 Forecast (7:28AM)”

  2. Wordle in six!

    I incorrectly guessed two words with everything right except for the last letter. I didn’t know that either of them was a word. One of them is an archaic form of another word that I never knew. 🙂

    1. This seems to be a good word for six or a fail. I have five guesses so far. I thought 3 and 4 would be the right word. I have no clue what my word five means. And less idea what I should enter for six.

      I did get connections in four guesses so that’ll be some consolation if I fail.

  4. Good morning and thank you TK

    64 here this morning

    Ocean 64 (Boston bouy)

    WORDLE: fail. 1st time in 32 games. Oh well. Guesses 4 through 6 were all legit words, just not the correct one. Oh well, it happens.

        1. Got it. Thank you. I was laughing too hard thinking we’d switched from a black to a blue sharpie.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    Hurricane Gloria took out our back fence, but happily no trees! I hadn’t remembered the exact date, though — thanks, JJ.

    1. I was listening to and watching the wind from our porch when a huge weeping willow fell in our neighbors yard. Fortunately, it did not hit their house.

  9. Thanks TK !

    Yay Sox.

    I’ll have to try Wordle later as we have a field hockey game to see 🙂

  10. Re: Glora

    https://ibb.co/dsjbbK0T

    Speaking of Gloria, it prompted me to dig up an old photo
    of our 2 children (on left) and their 2 cousins (on right).
    This is their cousins garage, maybe 300 feet from our house
    here in JP. Many other trees down in their back yard, but their
    house was unscathed. To this day, I believe there was a spin up there. I looked over there and the tree damage “appeared” to be circular. I say appeared as I could have been wrong.

    Nothing near our house, not even a branch down as it was a complete nothing, yet look what happened a foot ball field away. 🙂

      1. Green Monster uniform. Color shade and number/letter fonts match that of the iconic wall and scoreboard.

          1. They wear them occasionally during the season at home games. Not sure about the playoffs/postseason though.

            Actually the green uniforms/caps are the most popular among fans.

  14. My memory from Hurricane Gloria comes in its aftermath. In 1985, I was in my third year of teaching. I taught Spanish at a local Catholic school and the students came from many different surrounding towns. A couple of the towns and neighborhoods didn’t have power days after the storm, but the school did. The principal decided to open the school despite the fact that power was out for some of the students in their hometowns. However, it was decided that we weren’t going to give homework until all students’ homes had power.

    It was November, seven weeks after Hurricane Gloria, and I remember asking one of my students why he didn’t have his homework on that November morning and I will always remember his response:

    “We had a hurricane!”

  15. I wrote a diatribe on this board yesterday and then deleted it. It was all my greatest hits, venting about legacy media, social media, and online weather weenies, all forming a trio of idiocy with #9. I used the writing of my missive as therapy and then deleted it before posting.

    Anyway, here is a blast from 40 years past.
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8ZlguNt72ZA

    2. I’ve done that … more than I care to admit. 😉

      I can probably predict much of what you’d have said since we basically feel the same way about all of that stuff anyway. haha!

  16. So happy that the Red Sox clinched a playoff berth last night in such exciting fashion! The game was on Apple TV which we do not have. However, by chance, I switched over to the MLB Network and they had four games on at the same time, like the NFL Redzone! So, we were able to watch the last couple of innings of the Sox win!

    Not sure who I want Boston to face in the Wild Card round: at New York or at Toronto. All three games (best two-out-of-three) would be in Yankees Stadium or in the Rogers Centre. No games at Fenway in the first round.

  18. Trend of some heavy rain (current and upcoming) with some flooding issues for portions of the Carolinas continues, but it may not be “as bad” as what the potential is…

    Also trend for a no landfall scenario for the westernmost system continues on Global guidance. Don’t pay attention to anything beyond day 4 or 5 with those, including new development, on any global guidance right now. Just focus through Wednesday.

  21. Solid sea breeze has reached me (Woburn) in the last hour. The ocean air wedge has kicked up some decent cumulus clouds too underneath some higher, wispy cirrus clouds, but I don’t think any of those cumulus will develop enough to produce showers.

  22. Music Tidbit: The melody played on the organ at the beginning of George Michael’s song “Faith”, which opens the album of the same name, is the same melody that drives the chorus of the Wham! song “Freedom” from their album “Make It Big”. 🙂

  24. NOTE: Today’s 12z ECMWF operational run does not have ensemble support regarding the future track of TD 9 (forecast to be a TS soon).

  26. What a nice, warm autumnal day.

    Bridgewater won 3-2, very good road win against an up and coming Dean team.

    We’re outside at the campground. It’s cooled but its not cool or cold, but not hot either. I like this kind of fall camping.

    2 more weekends to Monday of Columbus Day, then the camping season ends til next spring, at some point.

  27. You’re right, SAK. I spoke too soon earlier. I believe that Boston’s loss today still leaves all three playoff destination in play: at Toronto, at New York or at Cleveland. All MLB games start at the same time tomorrow, on or around 3 pm ET. It should be a wild day of baseball!

    1. If Cleveland wins tonight and tomorrow, and the Red Sox lose tomorrow, then they go to Cleveland. Any other scenario and they head to whomever doesn’t win the AL East tomorrow.

      1. If the Blue Jays and Yankees end the regular season tied, the Blue Jays win the AL East because they won the season series over the Yankees by 8-5.

      2. Cleveland won on a walk-off hit by pitch.

        If the Red Sox win tomorrow, they are the #5 seed and will travel to Toronto or New York on Tuesday.

        If the Red Sox lose tomorrow, they will be the #5 seed if Cleveland also loses. If Cleveland wins, the Red Sox will be the #6 seed and will travel to Cleveland on Tuesday.

  28. Curious to know what happens to the big storms as they traverse the Atlantic. Obviously they weaken. But my guess is parts of Western Europe could see some impacts from a still strong set of storms.

    1. The scenarios for each that I see as the “most possible” …

      Humberto: Currently a CAT 5 hurricane having found absolutely perfect upper air conditions to thrive under, but will start to weaken, and while remaining a formidable storm system will make the typical trip into the northern waters and probably merge with a mid latitude cyclone east of Greenland and impact Iceland as an ordinary low pressure area.

      TD 9 (assuming it becomes Imelda, which is likely): Should be pulled eastward away from the US Southeast Coast after approaching it, but not really reaching it other than fringe effects and rough surf. It may briefly stall again over water, but will then by picked up by a trough and likely merge with a frontal boundary and cease to exist as an entity over the central Atlantic.

      Big storms where they are now do not always translate to big storms for Europe. That depends on the large scale pattern.

      1. Interesting. Thank you. And Joshua thanks for the question

        The Carolina’s don’t need another H storm.

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