Sunday September 28 2025 Forecast (7:14AM)

70 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

An area of mid and upper level moisture moved through overnight and will exit today with the last of the rain early this morning ending near the South Coast, and a clearing trend from west to east with increasing sun, and it will turn out quite warm this afternoon as well. A cold front will slide across the region from northwest to southeast this evening, and a few showers that it produces in northern New England will largely dissipate before getting to our area, but one or two may survive the journey as far as southeastern NH. Behind this, high pressure builds in tonight and we’ll see a rather significant temperature drop due to lower dewpoint air and calming winds. High pressure remains in control Monday and Tuesday with two mild days and a cool night between. We’ll see some high cloudiness fan into the region and filter the sun during Monday – associated with the happenings well to our south (more on that in a moment). Tuesday, another cold front will drop through the region, but not quickly enough to prevent one more mild day. It’s at midweek, Wednesday and Thursday, when the pressure gradient between the tropical system currently Tropical Depression 9 but likely soon to acquire the name Imelda as a tropical storm interacts with a large high pressure area building out of Canada. This will induce an active northeast wind here and also deliver a much cooler air mass to the region. A little more about tropical activity: Powerful Hurricane Humberto is expected to move northwest then curve northeast between Bermuda and the US East Coast – a little closer to Bermuda, while expected TS Imelda makes its way north northwest through the Bahamas, then gets captured by Humberto before fully reaching the US Southeast Coast, with a future path likely being more to the east and away from any land areas. There’s still some uncertainty with this and it needs to be closely monitored. Either way, some heavier rainfall can impact portions of the Southeast for a while, but it looks like the situation will not be as serious as it could have been.

TODAY: Early-morning light rain near Cape Cod / Islands comes to an end. Clouds give way to sun west to east. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower southern NH early, otherwise mostly clear, but patchy fog in low elevations overnight. Lows 46-53 rural / suburban areas, 53-60 urban centers. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW in the evening then diminishing to near calm overnight.

MONDAY: Sunshine becoming filtered by high clouds from south to north. Highs 75-82 except 68-75 South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind variable under 10 MPH early becoming SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 53-60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

With the increasing chance that the tropical systems staying further south and moving to sea, and high pressure dominating our region, this looks like a mainly dry period of weather for our region with a temperature moderation early to mid period then a cool-down late period with the arrival of a cold front from the west, possibly producing a brief shower threat.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)

A little less uncertainty in today’s look out this far. Expecting a zonal flow pattern with a front or two to pass by, but little in the way of any rain threat. Variable temperatures will average out close to normal overall.

70 thoughts on “Sunday September 28 2025 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    65 this morning.

    Wordle: FAIL

    I noticed that you increased high temperatures for today by a full 10 degrees since yesterday’s blog. Wondering what happened? Many thanks

    1. Nice!

      I got it in three as well. My first guess gave the correct letter in the last place. That really helped.

      1. Well don all!!!

        I had valid words for guesses 3,4,5 and 6, NONE of which were correct and I had 3 letters in correct position. It was just a matter of plugging in words that fit. Never chose the correct word and there were a bunch of them available!!!!

        Just never saw the correct one. Should have, but did not.

        1. A friend who I consider a bellwether for Wordle also failed. I can’t recall the last time I saw her fail. There is a lot of luck in this game considering the size of pools of words we have to choose from.

  9. Still social media posts out there talking about the rare “Fujiwhara Effect” creating a monster storm to swallow the East Coast. The fact that sites like this now have in excess of 100K followers and hundreds or thousands of shares for each post is a combination of infuriating, disappointing, and downright concerning. Something has to be done about the bogus info that’s overtaking the net and obscuring all the good info out there.

    If there is a bit of encouraging news about this, is that when I do check people’s reactions to these sites, more and more of them are starting to realize that it’s just a giant load of bullshit to get attention. Let’s hope that trend continues…

    And speaking of trends continuing, the only impacts expected from TD 9 (future TS, eventual hurricane) will be heavy surf along the US Southeast Coast, and some heavy rain bands working into northeastern SC and eastern NC. While these areas can experience flooding, I do not expect it to be widespread and major. This is great news.

    Hurricane Humberto is going to do its part to pull the other system away from the coast. It may eventually threaten Bermuda, but as a post-tropical cyclone. It should encounter Humberto-cooled water west of Bermuda and transition fairly rapidly. This wouldn’t necessarily save the island from a pretty good storm of rain and wind, but nothing they haven’t seen before.

    Both storms will be more of an impact to shipping than anything else. I mentioned in answer to Joshua’s question what is likely to happen to them as they move across the Atlantic on a comment near the end of yesterday’s blog comments.

    1. P.S. … Thank goodness TWC sent a crew of 5 people to cover the showers (rainfall 1 to 3 inches, locally heavier), moderate to high surf and minor flooding, and winds up to 25 MPH that are expected. 😉

      5?

      Person 1: “I got nothing here, what about down the coast a bit?”

      Person 2: “We’re still waiting here. Meanwhile, the seagulls are flying around looking to steal people’s snacks. What about you?”

      Person 3: *** fell asleep waiting to go on the air, quick cut to next person

      Person 4: “Well the waves are about 2 feet, but we expect them to increase later. And the tide is coming in!” (kind of like it does twice a day)

      Person 5: **Caught attempting to fake high winds in a 5 MPH breeze** “Sorry, I was just stretching my sore back. Not much going on here, back to you in the studio!”

        1. No problem. Sad thing is, it’s not that far from what actually goes on on that channel. 😉

              1. I was a regular watcher from 1982 until college graduation, then frequently tuned in through the 1990s (they were still good then). They went into the early 2000s still pretty decent, then it went downhill fast from there and they lost me.

  11. East of Moscow (and even the Moscow region itself sometimes) tends to have a relatively brief autumn. In Moscow and in parts west of Moscow, there may be brief interludes of warm-ups, similar to what we’re experiencing now. They call it babushka or grandmother summer. But apparently, in the Eastern slopes of the Urals (a mountain chain as ancient as the Appalachians and as rounded at the top, too) they’re already experiencing wintry weather. https://x.com/Beefeater_Fella/status/1972242831575060487

    In Siberia, in cities like Norilsk it’s already winter with temps during the day no longer going above freezing (20s at night). In mid-winter there the highs tend to be around or below 0F and of course colder at night.

    1. I do think that some of the melancholy and drinking habits in Russia can be explained by the brutally long winters.

      I like winter, but not 9 months of it a year.

      1. I don’t think their winter lasts 9 months, and most definitely not in the areas where 95%+ of the population is. I used to forecast that entire region on a daily basis, and even in the coldest areas they did not have a 9 month winter. 🙂

        I’m thinking the drinking is just more part of the culture there and years of questionable authority.

        Scandinavia has a pretty long winter and those counties are among the happiest in the world. 🙂

  12. Hopefully there will be some lessons learned by the general weather seeker about who / what to believe and where to be cautious, and flat out being able to pick out the sites / pages that are a waste of internet space. Each event like this makes me hope that lesson is learned (and remembered) by more people. I can hope, right?

    So much focus on deterministic model runs DAYS in advance on a system that had not even had a defined low center. So much time wasted writing drama-filled posts about unlikely scenarios, while behind the scenes the real meteorologists were just doing it right, the way it should be done.

    Listen folks, it would be great if the bullcrap can be ignored, but when it gets in the way of your message, you cannot just ignore it. I can only hope the battle against it will get stronger, and be won. I am never going to stop speaking out against the fakes and the hype-masters in defence of something I (and others like me) worked our butts off to get good at. No freaking way.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/NINE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

    That link is the NHC forecast trend over the last handful of days on this system. Yes, they did it right, and even the change in the outlook shows there. But at least it was applied science and not a dramafest.

  14. Meanwhile, TD Nine is taking its sweet time organizing. The latest discussion calls the attempt at more organized convection “underwhelming”. They have also yet again adjusted the forecast track slightly east and south, with ever-decreasing impact potential for the Carolinas.

      1. I never ended up playing because we stayed on the campground once we got back from the game, so I didn’t get a consistent wifi connection.

        I’m home now watching football. 🙂

      1. Yes bad team, but the fact that we are seperating from the basement of the NFL is a good start. Also seems like the Patriots are improving each week. Would have won last week if they didn’t cough up the ball

    1. Yes we should trend to the warmer side (not as warm as this weekend though, especially today).

      There are some signs of things tilting in the cooler direction relative to normal as we get deeper into October as well.

      There were some pages barking about a big pattern change to long lasting warmth and a return to wet weather in the Northeast.

      Nope.

      We have some warm interludes, such as the one now, and the one late next week. There will almost certainly be another one after that too. But that is not the dominant long term pattern. Eastern Canada still provides plenty of high pressure and cool shots in the next few weeks as well. The one problem we have is when we do get a bit of wet weather, the pattern doesn’t present regular rainfall – we just slip back to the dry overall regime. I don’t see a change in that…

    2. I am pretending I didn’t see the W word We had a more realistic August. Id love to see an October of old too. I do not care for the season shift

  18. Finally found enough organization to upgrade TD Nine to TS Imelda as of 2:00 p.m.

    The trend for a bit further south and east with a sooner turn continues. At this rate, that system is going to end up passing south of Bermuda with the island on the weaker side of a just-about post-tropical cyclone.

  19. I’m advocating for this because he’s one of my running backs on my fantasy football team ….. I wish they’d use TreVeyon Henderson even more !!!

    1. I don’t he was going to be on my team but the person before me took him just before me so I was stuck with Stephenson, so I am hoping not for selfish reasons. I want more Stephenson like two games ago where he gave me 18 points. Hunter Henry also was a beast last week. I seem to never be able to have consistent players besides for Lamar Jackson. I been lucky the other teams have had bad luck with injuries and inconsistent players as well and have had one or two players caring me. I think this week will be my first lost and drop from 2nd place to 5th.

    1. Score doesn’t matter. The W does though. 🙂

      I’d have been happy with a 2-0 win just as much as this blow-out.

  22. Sox versus Yanks starts Tuesday. All 3 games will be in the Bronx and the 3 games must be played on consecutive days. Start time is about 1-1:15 PM each day.

      1. If it goes to a 3rd game, I am going to seriously consider buying a ticket and driving down to the Bronx for the game. I have the day off.

  23. All watches etc. for US coastal areas have been discontinued. NHC continues to nudge initial path east, sooner turn, later path a bit further south. The threat to Bermuda is on the verge of dropping off as well.

  24. Mets collapse was incredible. Best team in baseball back in June. Since then, one of the worst. Out of the playoffs despite all that money poured into the club. Being a club that spends helps, but it’s no guarantee.

    Tigers get in, but barely. They relinquished their seemingly insurmountable lead of 15.5 games. The Indians won the division today outright. Not even tied with Detroit. Unbelievable.

    It’ll be fun going up against the Yankees. I won’t make a prediction. I do feel anxious, but then again I always am when rooting for my team.

  25. Still 65 here. Anyone know how to put an ice cube on the mercury bulb to encourage dropping temps. Please

  26. What a beautiful evening. 🙂

    It’s been cool a lot since August and I love what feels like a “summer memory” tonight. This makes me happy.

    A little cold front is making its way southward but it’s not a very sharp contrast. We have to wait for a second one to come by on Tuesday, which will really introduce a cooler air mass at that time. But tomorrow will be down a couple notches from today.

  28. One of my colleagues informed me that recon was never sent into Humberto, and the intensity measurement for CAT 5 was missed – they usually get those.

    Ironically, NOW they decide to send a recon into the hurricane. A bit late in the game, eh?

        1. There has been a nationwide personnel shortage at the National Weather Service (NWS) throughout 2025, which also affects Massachusetts. Hundreds of employees were laid off or took early retirement earlier in the year due to government initiatives, creating vacancies at forecast offices across the country.
          While the NWS has received approval to hire new staff, these positions are not expected to be filled quickly enough to fully resolve the issue in September 2025.
          Status of the NWS personnel situation in Massachusetts (as of September 2025)
          National staffing shortages: Nationwide, the NWS lost over 550 employees earlier in 2025. By September, hundreds of positions remained vacant, leading to increased strain on existing staff.
          Impact on the Boston office: The local NWS office in Norton, which covers Massachusetts, has experienced the effects of this national shortage. Across the country, staff are reportedly working double shifts or operating under “buddy systems” to cover for vacant positions.
          Hiring efforts underway: In August, following political pressure, the NWS received permission to hire back up to 450 “critical positions”. A specific number of these jobs for the Boston office has not been publicly detailed, but the effort is intended to shore up national staffing.
          Hiring delays: According to a union representative, the federal hiring process is slow, taking 11 to 14 months to onboard new staffers. This means the newly approved positions will not be filled in time to alleviate the current shortages in September 2025.
          Active hurricane season: The ongoing personnel issues are especially concerning as they coincide with the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, highlighting the importance of federal forecasting operations.

  29. Patriots.
    1. They beat up on a bad team, they are seperating themselves from the basement which is a good direction.
    2. Complimentary football, this game showed they can do it, question is can it be done consistently
    3. Oline was very good this week
    4. Run defense continues to be impressive.
    5. Pass defense improved with Gonzo back, but there are wholes from the middle to back end of the defense.
    6. Running backs need to be more consistent
    7. The WR combos they had this week need to continue and I would even replace Pop with Chism, get him on the field.
    8. We need to see if the Pats offense can keep up with the Bills offense without making mistakes like last week. Its all good when you are obliterating your opponent, its another when the other team no matter how good your defense plays will be threatening.
    9. Bills coaching is as good as the Steelers, they are going to go after the ball security issues, if the Pats can keep under 2 that will be good. I don’t expect the offense to be completely clean but the interceptions and fumbles need to be good plays by the defense not a give it you because we messed up.
    10. I do not see why the Patriots could not be 3-1 over the next 4 game stretch.

    1. Oh also Josh McDaniels is a major reason why the offense is able to move and making Maye being in the top 10 in several categories.

  30. Would like to see the Patriots get off to better starts like they did in Miami (15-0).

    In the end of course as long as they win. 🙂

  31. TK – Will September end up on the (+) or (-) for temperature for the month?

    I would love to see a colder October and November to set us up for the upcoming winter.

    1. At Boston, the month is running right around the long term average. With 2 mild days and 2 sharply cooler days, I think it will end up near to slightly below normal for the month.

      August was also cool by about 4 degrees.

      A cool Oct and Nov is sometimes correlated to a colder winter, but it’s not a guarantee at all. There are too many indices that drive the large scale pattern, but I’ll have a good idea by mid November.

      1. I remember some really cold days in November of 1995. We know what happened in the winter of 1995/96. It wasn’t especially cold. But there was consistently cold air and many snowstorms. Loved that winter.

Comments are closed.