Tuesday September 30 2025 Forecast (7:05AM)

88 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

This last day of September starts with filtered sun as the high cloud shield extending far north of TS Imelda and an associated moisture plume moves out, and the sun brightens as the day goes on. It will be a mild day with a weak high pressure area just to our south, but later in the day you’ll notice a wind shift to the north and northeast, and the breeze increasing by evening. This will be due to a fairly strong cold front that goes by otherwise unnoticeable – very few clouds and no rainfall whatsoever. At midweek we’ll be breezy and much cooler from a large, stronger Canadian high pressure area to our north and the tropical activity far to our southeast and south (Humberto and Imelda). Later this week the high center will build right over our region then sink to the south with continued dry weather and a warm up to start the weekend.

TODAY: Filtered sun becomes brighter with time as high clouds gradually decrease, otherwise just a few passing fair-weather clouds this afternoon. Highs 71-78. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N to NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod including higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH MA South Shore through Cape Cod including higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH Cape Cod including higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy low elevation fog. Lows 38-45. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-77, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)

High pressure to the south provides fair weather and above normal temperatures into early week. Watch for a cold front with a shower threat later October 7 to early October 8 followed by fair and cooler weather.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Zonal flow pattern. Warm-up early period, shower threat with next front mid period, cool-down late period.

88 thoughts on “Tuesday September 30 2025 Forecast (7:05AM)”

  1. So here’s another little example of why we need to continue to inform people about and battle against the bad info online.

    Countless pages through around the term “Fujiwhara” as of it’s something new – it’s not. Ooo the hurricanes are going to merge into a monster.

    Nope, sorry, that’s not how it works.

    And so let’s take a quick look at what’s really going on.

    Outflow from Imelda is now contributing to significant wind shear which is causing Humberto to weaken rapidly. Yes, weaken rapidly.

    While Imelda has taken advantage of some favorable conditions to strengthen, and should be a hurricane soon, many online claims that this would rapidly intensify were incorrect. Why? Hindrance due to upper low pressure to its west. Meteorology. It’s amazing how using it actually helps! Sheesh!

    1. I was going to mention that 2nd to last paragraph about Imelda’s outflow and its effects on Humberto.

      That was neat to watch yesterday.

      1. It’s a fascinating process.

        This is the thing: Interaction does not often mean “worse”. The interaction between these 2 systems has resulted in 1 turning away from a major land area and strengthening more slowly, and another one (even though it’s no threat to land) weakening rapidly. Had it been a threat to Bermuda more directly, this would be great news.

        Looking at social media you’d think that the presence of two storms so close together, which btw is more common than you’d be lead to believe by social media, was spelling gloom and doom for the entire East Coast. The posts of such nonsense make it harder and harder to week thru to get to the good information that us real folks post. It’s sad.

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    57 earlier this morning, 58 now.

    Ocean temperature: 64 (Boston bouy)

    Wordle: 5

    1. I don’t have the average water temperature, but gut says that it is running above average.
      I “think’ it should be right around 60.

      1. Well done. I was getting no where. On the 4th guess I tried
        a weird word that I didn’t even know was a word and got
        4 letters in correct position. Wasn’t too difficult from there.

        2. Excellent.

          Last night was one of those I think of as midnight magic. The word just popped into my head

  5. I went into a-fib at 6:12 a.m., took my “magic pill” (flecianide) at 6:15, and was in normal rhythm by 7:06 a.m. That stuff is awesome! I wrote the blog while I was waiting for the meds to kick in. Posted at 7:05, and one min later the episode was over. 🙂

    BTW, that was my first a-fib episode since last April. Not bad. 🙂

  9. Imelda is behaving a little bit like a subtropical feature, in that its strongest winds are well away from the center and the center’s light winds extend a good distance away from the center.

  10. Thank you to ESPN for putting the Yankees Red Sox game tonight and tomorrow night at 6pm. The game should be over between 9pm – 10pm which is great for anyone who gets up at early for work.
    Great pitching matchup tonight!

  11. Maybe will get into a fall pattern middle to end of the month.
    From Meteorologist Mike Masco.

    Longer Range forecast suggests a battle of summer and fall to start October. This means high temperatures may again approach the 80 mark for many area’s in the eastern United states. The warm pattern is being driven by a strongly positive eastern pacific oscillation. However, the teleconnection forecast is showing the pacific to dip back to negative promoting a chillier pattern by the mid to later half of October.

  15. Thanks TK!

    Looks like a very dry next 7-10 days across the Northeast. Beyond then, kinda mixed signals. I still pretty strongly suspect a dry tilt through at least much of October, but the question will be whether we can continue to get at least occasional moisture intrusions to keep the worst of drought conditions at bay. Central and Northern New England remains the greatest concern.

    We’ve also been seeing a relentless troughing pattern and associated cool/wet weather across much of the West Coast, with no sign of that letting up in the next 2+ weeks. Probably too early to draw any firm conclusions on what that may mean for the coming winter. But so long as Pacific air continues flooding the CONUS (especially with how warm the North Pacific SSTs are), don’t expect any sustained cooler weather in the eastern half of the country…

    1. Hope all is well !

      I like the end of your 2nd paragraph !

      Its cold long enough up here, well into Spring, once it sets in, during Autumn.

      So, I am game for above avg temps for as long as they can last.

    2. Hi WeatherWatcher. Always nice to see you here and hope you and yours are well. Great post except maybe the last sentence….but I don’t fault the messenger ❤️

  17. I heard on WEEI this morning that Alex Bregman is now “under the weather”. He didn’t travel with the team.

    NOW what??? We lost Roman Anthony as it is.

    1. Season tickets don’t include any playoff games, home or otherwise.

      But season ticket holders are generally guaranteed the opportunity to buy playoff tickets since the sale is usually open to them before non-season-ticket holders.

    1. Too bad that chill won’t stay for the rest of the season. I can’t believe it gets back to the 80s again! Also according to Eric, record highs possible next week no less.

      2. It never works that way. We live in a region of variability. It doesn’t just “get cool” and stay that way. We experience ups and downs year-round.

        Also, completely disagree with Eric about next week regarding record temp potential. A meteorological difference of opinion indeed.

        Boston’s max potential Saturday through Monday (the 3 warmest days) is about 78 to 82.

        The record highs…

        Oct 4: 86 in 2007
        Oct 5: 87 in 1922
        Oct 6: 86 in 1990

        NWS forecast highs for Boston (Logan) for those 3 days…
        Oct 4: 77
        Oct 5: 80
        Oct 6: 79

        I happen to pretty much agree with the NWS here, hence the disagreement with Eric’s assessment. That’s fair of me. We can’t agree all the time. I think the record high potential forecast is too aggressive.

        No records in the 3 1/2 day warm stretch ahead. We then cool down after that.

        I agree with WxW about the somewhat prevailing Pacific flow into the country limiting how much cool air can hang around, for now… But that doesn’t prevent cool shots from taking place. We just don’t get into a more persistent cool pattern like the one we were in in August and a good part of September.

    1. They have every year since the 1990s basically.

      But varying media sources key on various outlooks they issue. The third Thursday of every month they update their 30-day, 90-day, and 14-month long lead outlooks. Media sources will just pick out the segment that says Dec Jan Feb and call that the “winter forecast” but they don’t really go out of their way to spotlight it specifically. It’s updated, as I said, once month, year-round.

      So basically the forecast for both this winter (Dec 2025 thru February 2026) AND next winter (Dec 2026 thr Feb 2027) will be completely available on their long range forecast page on the update that is issued on November 20.

      But yes, they went “slightly milder than average”, but again they virtually have that forecast every time. They did it last year, and were incorrect. It was slightly colder than average.

      They forecast “above normal” for every month in 2025 on their long leads for Boston. How did they do?

      January: Below normal.
      February: Below normal.
      March: Above normal.
      April: Near normal.
      May: Near normal.
      June: Above normal.
      July: Above normal.
      August: Below normal.
      September: Near normal.

      NOTE: -1.5 to +1.5 is considered “near normal”. I could have actually used 2 as the cut-off, because they consider that “acceptable error”, but I gave them a break.

      They got 3 out of 9 correct. I’ll give it a C-, and I think that’s fairly generous … probably more like a D. But I’m a bit of a softy as a grader. 😉

      1. NOAA must have really had egg on their face for the 2014-15 winter to say the least. 😉

        Although I suppose they have been correct more often than not for the past few winters.

        1. They do better with the outlooks for a couple months ahead, but those long-lead things are horrible. I’ve also seen many other professionals discuss this in various forums. I do not know why they even bother issuing them. They have to end up adjusting huge areas of real estate colder all the time as it gets closer. I’ve literally been watching this occur now for 3 decades.

  22. So, again …. a lesson in buying model runs too far in advance (especially for the uneducated hypesters that do NOT reside on this blog .. haha .. tho they won’t see this because they are too busy making stuff up).

    Even the model guidance that had the correct idea about Imelda going right hook and away from the US all generally depicted either Humberto moving quickly away to have lasting impact, or Humberto being the stronger storm and absorbing Imelda.

    Well, well, well, turns out that Humberto’s sister Imelda is going to pull the fast one, becoming the dominant storm, first creating wind shear to rapidly weaken it, and then slow its forward progress enough to have it “Fujiwara” right into its circulation – Imelda ultimately becoming the dominant storm, before the resulting post-tropical low zips away into the North Atlantic.

    There’s a reason why jumping to conclusions too soon is a really bad idea.

  23. Crochet is keeping the Sox in this game, but they need the bats to wake up. Fast-paced game. Not even at 90 min and already bottom of 5th.

  24. Humberto has less than 24 hours of life left. It will be post-tropical / dissipated / absorbed by Imelda by the end of tomorrow. Extremely fast death of what was once a major hurricane.

    Imelda will likely become a CAT 2 ‘cane at maximum and does threaten Bermuda Wednesday PM / Thursday AM. After that, continued ENE to NE acceleration is expected while a steady weakening and transition to post-tropical takes place.

    I no longer expect that system to be a big deal to anywhere in the North Atlantic after that. It’ll just become absorbed by one of the mid latitude systems up there…

    So besides the short-lived threat to Bermuda from Imelda and the not-too-severe impacts in the Bahamas previously, these 2 formerly super-hyped systems turn out to be basically a pair of nothingburgers.

  25. 54/50 here

    Can someone please explain the runner being sent to second when he beat the throw back to first Or did I see that incorrectly. This fair weather fan has been away from the game too long I guess

  29. A few stats:

    Since the infamous 19-8 game in 2004, the Red Sox are 9-1 against the Yankees in the post season.

    Since MLB created the Wild Card Series in 2022, teams that won Game 1 have won the series all 12 times.

    And finally, this gem from Twitter:

    @OptaSTATS
    ·
    51m
    The Yankees are the first team in MLB postseason history to have the bases loaded with nobody out in the bottom of the 9th but not score a run and lose the game.

        1. I’ve known him for nearly 4 decades. He’s the most reliable weather and sports (at least many of them) statistical data bank I know. 🙂

  31. According to JR, no rain expected until next Wednesday!

    JR also expects a quick leaf drop due to the dry conditions.

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