Wednesday Forecast

88 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 23-27)
High pressure offshore and a slow-moving cold front approaching from the west today brings milder but mainly cloudy weather today. Wet weather arrives west to east during this evening as the front draws near, and a wave of low pressure forming on it and moving up along it will enhance the wet weather through most of Thursday. We’ll have to watch for a concentrated line of downpours and gusty winds associated with this system as it has been strongly indicated by short-range guidance. Rough idea on timing of this feature, if it occurs, would be late morning to mid afternoon from west to east across the region. By Thursday evening, the wet weather will come to an end as the cold front starts to push offshore after the low pressure wave goes by. This will bring drier and seasonably colder weather in for Friday. During this warm-up, we should be able to get rid of a fair amount of our tundra-like snow/ice left on the ground by the Sunday storm and frozen in place by the arctic air that followed it. Speaking of arctic air, we’ll get a taste of that, but to a lesser degree, by Saturday. And then by Sunday a disturbance should throw some snow showers into the mix. This doesn’t look like an important storm at this point.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers arriving western areas later in the day, with patchy freezing rain possible interior areas to start. Highs 38-45. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers likely evening becoming a steady rain overnight. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible especially South Coast.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. One or two period of heavy rain possible. Areas of fog. Highs 48-55. Wind S 10-20 MPH with gusts 35-55 MPH, strongest coastal areas, shifting to W during the day from west to east.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy evening with rain ending, maybe as brief mix some areas west of Boston. Clearing overnight. Areas of black ice possible. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Risk of a snow shower evening. Breezy. Highs 32-39. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 28-FEBRUARY 1)
A potential storm during the January 28-29 period but not sure if all the ingredients will come together for a significant event as it is too far away to be sure. Leaning toward dry/cold for the end of January / beginning of February but may have to watch additional storminess to the south and east.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 2-6)
Somewhat active pattern so may have to watch 1 or 2 weather systems in this time period and with the temperatures still trying to average below normal that would leave the door open for snow chances (don’t interpret this as “here come the blizzards!” because it’s not really what I mean). Been monitoring for a potential pattern retrogression and moderation, but it appears that would attempt to take place after this time period.

88 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. I’m hoping for some melt. My car is still frozen in the driveway and there is no way I’m walking on the driveway to get to it.

  6. Thanks TK. Lol, “tundra” that is what it looked like last two nights, snow blowing across the icy ground.

    Vicki, your daughter’s photo was outstanding.

    1. You are very kind. Thank you. I will let her know.

      And I was having trouble figuring out how ice was blowing as much as it was. Fascinating, isn’t it?

      1. Well we kept getting that light snow TK mentioned, not ocean effect but very lightly snowing from the front moving away? It was actually helpful because the ice was less slippery with a 1/2″ or so of new snow on top.

        Looking forward to the rain washing the walkways clear,

        1. I don’t think we got enough to make a coating. I am looking forward to the thaw and then the rain. I had planned on being housebound for a bit so am fine where I am for now 🙂

  7. Thanks TK !

    Looking forward to the meltdown the next 36 to 48 hrs. More-so for the sidewalk and driveway ice, not necessarily for the snow-cover, which helps make the scenery look a bit nicer.

          2. As of now, our last day is June 14th.

            So, I might be on the beach the afternoon of the 14th.

            The only year I can remember getting out that early was 2012 …. June 12th.

  8. The helicity for tomorrow us off the charts, however, there is virtually no instability.
    Yet, there is talk of thunder tomorrow.
    So, if enough for thunder, then what about a tornado??

  9. Thanks TK.

    Not too much cooking on the 12z models for early next week. GFS and Euro still have the clipper diving down from Canada but it doesn’t dig nearly enough and crosses the Great Lakes. Any coastal redevelopment would be too far north and too late, resulting in a frontal passage of rain showers for us. Regardless of what happens, big trough in the east and more cold follow for the second half of next week.

    Looking at the projected teleconnections by Feb 1: -AO, -PNA, +NAO and now it looks like the MJO may want to stay in Phase 6 for awhile. Doesn’t get me overly enthused about snowstorm threats.

  10. Still no signs of things drying out much as this incredibly wet pattern (now 9 months long) continues…

    Eric Fisher‏Verified account @ericfisher · 20h20 hours ago

    Many towns with 4-6″ of rain already this month. Another 2″ for many of these towns Wed-Thu. That’s a ton of precipitation for what’s typically the driest month of the year. What else is new?!

    https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1087835647090610185

    1. Get well Mrs OS!!! I’m putting it in my WHW high confidence outlook that she will be feeling better in short order!

      1. Thank you all.
        Problem is, she is allergic to any medication
        the Docs could give her. She falls into a very small percentage of people who have to tough it out and hope for the best.

          1. Can she take elderberry? Something surely to check with docs and perhaps she is taking. It is a natural antibiotic. Whole Foods has the syrup.

            Just a thought

            1. Also Starbucks has a citrus defender tea that is amazing for breaking congestion.

              I also have a copy cat recipe and can email you if you can’t get to Starbucks.

              Sorry…don’t mean to butt in…but it’s sadly what I do when worried

              1. Oh and I am anything but a Starbucks fan but tried this when I was sick last Jan and feb and swear by it

                3. Omg. That’ll break the bank. Coffee too oily for me. I am a Peet’s fan. Oddly Peet’s taught Starbucks how to make coffee

  18. Sorry about your wife, JPD. I’m surprised that these days there aren’t alternative meds that she can tolerate with her allergies. Hope she gets better soon! 🙂

  20. Thank you, TK.

    For the first time I seriously think Boston could have the lowest total snow accumulation on record. I realize that winter still has quite a bit of time left. But, patterns are stubborn, and we’re in an extended one that is snow-resistant, and bizarrely so. As Mark said:

    50’s and rain –> bitter cold —- > 50’s and rain —-> bitter cold

    At a certain point the cold will no longer be there and we’ll be left with few if any snow chances.

    It’s not a pattern many like, and in one respect it is a continuation of the trend of wet weather that has persisted for a very long time. That has not abated. In fact, looking ahead it appears that the precipitation amounts every 3 days or so will be rather copious and of course all rain. What’s more, soon we’ll be headed into our traditionally wet period of March through May.

  22. JP Dave, I am very sorry to hear about your wife’s extended illness. Bronchitis can be a chronic condition. When I say chronic I don’t mean forever, but it can last a very long time. Even though I’m a winter person, I do know that warm air and sun would help your wife (and others with respiratory conditions) recover. Certainly better for recovery than the yo-yo weather of Arctic blasts followed by relatively cold rain and damp weather followed of course by another short-lived polar air invasion.

    1. Thank Joshua.

      We just played a game of cards, which she could not do the last 3 nights.
      I am hoping that she is about to turn the corner. Today is day 24 for her.

  26. More on “Bread and Milk”,

    Jackpot! I found this photo with the other photo of me in the Curtis Compact. I said that Radio Flyers were used to transport bread, milk and other necessities from stores back home in the days after Blizzard.
    Here you can see four sleds “parked” outside the Curtis Compact in downtown Mansfield. By the way, that Honey Dew you see was the first-ever Honey Dew shop opened.

    Here’s the photo:

    https://imgur.com/a/JMMGXvT

    1. Love this. I think my favorite memory is everyone pulling wagons and sleds and stopping to pass along what store had what and to just say hi

      When Mac lived in Rome during they closed it to cars on sundays. He @nd family would bicycle into the center of the city. He said everyone was happy and friendly

          1. Love the picture, Vicki. Reminds me when I was younger and had my own sled. My father would take me on my sled and pull the sled down the side of the street after big snowstorms when streets were covered. We lived in Holbrook in one of the Campanelli developments on a street in one of the developments and there was no traffic. None at all especially when street was covered with snow.

  29. Captain Fantastic, Great pictures from 1978! Thanks for sharing. As I recall Mansfield and Sharon were in the jackpot section as far as snow totals were concerned.

    To imagine, it’s very much like that in terms of snowbanks in many parts of Maine and Vermont right now. So close and yet so far away. I may pay a visit to my sister in Norwich this weekend just to see some healthy snowbanks. Problem is, however, tomorrow’s rainstorm will wash away some snow in all of New England. I don’t think any part of NE will be snowing tomorrow. All rain.

  31. Hoping Mrs. OS gets better soon! It’s a good sign that she is playing cards with you now. All my best wishes for her, JP.

  32. Much of Raynham appears to be without power, at least the stretch of my commute.
    Trying to determine if it is the result of wind/tree damage or a car accident.

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