Tuesday Forecast

82 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 22-26)
Arctic high pressure moves overhead today, which will still be cold and breezy, but not nearly as cold as yesterday was. High pressure then move offshore and opens the door for a midweek warm-up, but the trade-off will be wet weather arriving by late Wednesday through Thursday. Colder/drier air returns by Friday, but only seasonable cold as the slow-moving front that creates the midweek wet spell moves offshore. But a second cold front will deliver colder air by the start of the weekend.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sunshine, filtered late by high clouds. Highs 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH. Wind chill often below 20.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Lows 11-18 evening, rising back to the 20s overnight. Wind light variable early, becoming light S to SW.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers arriving west to east during the afternoon, with patchy freezing rain possible interior areas to start. Areas of fog mid to late afternoon. Highs 38-45. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers likely evening becoming a steady rain overnight. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 38-45. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible especially South Coast.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain likely. Areas of fog. Highs 45-52. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W during the day from west to east.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Risk of a snow shower evening. Breezy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 27-31)
Will watch the January 27-29 period for potential storminess which would occur while it was cold enough for snow/mix. Dry, cold end to month.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 1-5)
Starts out cold/dry, some unsettled weather follows as it tries to moderate. This forecast is purposely vague and low confidence because of the uncertainty of the large scale pattern. May see retrogression of trough toward the western US but unsure how quickly this might take place.

82 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK!

    I never thought I would actually be grateful for a cutter bringing us prolific rains come Thursday! I’ll deal with some water in my basement as a trade off for these icy sidewalks. This was NOT a fun snow event this time around.

    I saw a model with 2+” for Boston. Fine with me!

    I do hope the next snow event will be an “all” snow event. NO MORE MIXING!!!

  3. Thanks CF for that “bread & milk” photo. Seeing that paper bag on the counter reminded me that was still before plastic. 🙂

    My mother and I went to the store for groceries using my old sled as well. Wonderful memories in spite of the inconvenience. 🙂

  8. Thank you very much, TK.

    This yo-yo of a winter is getting to me. I don’t mind the cold at all. I don’t even mind 40s (so long as it’s not raining). But, I do mind the wild oscillations and the relatively frequent barrage of rainfall events (since September and not stopping any time soon, albeit recently there has been a slight pattern shift). I certainly realize New England has variable weather. But, a bit more consistency would be nice. I’m afraid that is not happening. This week is Exhibit A!

    Article on Greenland’s ice melt:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46960842

    1. The Greenland Ice melt has been alarming to me for some time.

      Natural fluctuation? OR Human induced climate change.
      Given that we have been spewing crap into the atmosphere for a few hundred
      years now, my vote would be Human induced climate change.

      I am sure many would disagree with me. At best it would be a combo
      of Human crap and natural fluctuation, but that would be at best.
      We should assume the worst.

      1. Most will actually agree 🙂 If people would just open there eyes. If you don’t trust scientists trust what the fishermen are saying. Fish are moving north 🙂 Trust the farmers they have longer growing seasons.

      2. I would not disagree. However, it is an easy fix. Clean up our environment. It is markedly irresponsible that we are not. If we do that and it turns out this is cyclical……we still win.

  12. Its going to be fasinating on how the time after the Thursday system comes to be. So many pieces of energy moving around North America. Any time from Sunday through Thursday of next week.

  13. Since it is quiet here….with temp up to 29….I would like to play proud mom

    My youngest sold her firsf photograph. The photographer who has her artisan shop in town and a friend has asked her to display the photo there. It’s of a bed and breakfast in town during last Marchs storm

    https://i.imgur.com/bTzEGXL.jpg

    3. I so love that photo and am not the least bit surprised that someone purchased it. You have every right to play proud mom!

  16. 12z Euro amplifies the southern stream low (big surprise) and brings it up the coast:

    https://i.postimg.cc/251dxhgk/Capture.png

    Has another threat at hour 240 with a low approaching from the southwest.

    That said, lots of possibilities on the table early next week depending on the timing and positioning of the different pieces of N and S stream energy. Definitely some potential there with a broad trough setting up over the east.

      1. I believe Keith shared the special marine statement that was issued yesterday by the NWS. Definitely warranted based on these pics!

    2. Those are closer to large steam devils than they are waterspouts, but they are very similar. These are just much weaker.

    2. Well the idea going into this winter is reflected by that map, maybe a little more dramatically than I expected. 😉

        1. Where did you get the idea that Providence was at 0.0″ for snow this winter? Their total-to-date is 7.9 inches.

  19. I’m curious – if you all had to choose where would you want bostons official snow total to come from

      1. And where Dr. Joseph Warren was born in 1741. He was the ultimate patriot. Died in the bloody battle at Bunker Hill: Great Britain’s pyrrhic victory.

    2. Fenway Park of course! I mean is there any other obvious answer? 😉

      That said, the observations at Logan are ESSENTIAL and obviously not going anywhere because it’s an airport. But yes, it is not representative of most of the city. For climate purposes a more “in the city” location would be desirable.

  20. Vicki your daughter has some talent for photography. That is a spectacular picture!! The color of the building really pops against the snow.

  21. Judah Cohen‏ @judah47 · Jan 21

    Latest CFS forecast predicts #cold temperatures will last into March. Read my thoughts how long the impact of the #PolarVortex (PV) disruption will last plus I include an extended animation of the PV split: https://bit.ly/2DVbhhg

    He also notes the CFS has not been consistent in his blog.

    1. The CFS has been inconsistent for a long time, but about 2/3 ok and 1/3 not so great. I’ve generally figured out which runs to ignore. This was part of my reasoning for speculating a moderation due to retrogression sometime after the 1st of February (unsure as to the duration of that).

        1. They all want to seem to lock that pattern in once we reach it. Like it’s trying to get there, instead of just the atmosphere responding to the game pieces as they do this and that.

          Yes we had a colder/stormier weekend, an arctic shot, and now a warm-up. To me, just simply looking over one week’s time, that’s a variable pattern. We’ll have a snow/ice/rain event, a rain event, extreme cold, and some nice mild air all within 5 days’ time.

          And who’s to say the “threat” for early next week doesn’t end up another mild system? It could go either way. I have no idea yet to be honest. Re-evaluating constantly, given the performance of guidance for weeks now.

  22. Nice photo, Vicki!

    It’s official, folks, Paris is leading Boston this year in terms of snowfall (by Logan measurement). That, my friends, is a rarity. Paris is not known for its snowfall or cold. It’s not that cold there, but they did get 2 inches to play around in. Some pictures of the magnificent city in the snow:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46964927

  24. Question. I am supposed to,have a storm front door installed Thursday. 8:00 am start

    Do folks here think that the rain will be in play. If so, we will postpone

    Thank you

    3. Should be wet pretty much the entire daylight hours of Thursday and somewhere in there we may end up with a nice rainsquall and even a risk of thunder.

      1. Thank you TK. I can’t tell you how much I love being part of this great blog.

        Hope you are feeling better

        And also Mrs OS, rain shine, Joshua, Tom, Captain. I apologize if I am missing someone but you are all in my thoughts

  26. I’ll be very curious to see as to whether the squall line being very distinctly modeled for Thursday is legit. The 3km NAM is definitely the most striking, but a lot of the hi-res guidance indicates it as a possibilty. The second question would be, if it is legit, what will the consequences be given ~100kts of wind at 850mb, a truly exceptional LLJ. The 3km NAM, while surely (I hope) overdone, shows 60-80kt gusts over most of eastern/southeastern MA as that line moves through.

  27. Pretty `cool’ scene at Niagara Falls. Happens almost every year, so it’s not unusual, but still quite awesome. One of the captions makes it seem like the winter storm caused parts of the falls to freeze. That’s not exactly true, though one could say the storm helped usher in the very short-lived cold snap:

    https://video.foxnews.com/v/5992431553001/#sp=show-clips

    Then this story from cold Siberia. It’s -45 celsius or -49F, which is not unusual there, and unlike here cold snaps are long, as in months, not 2 days. Two little children left their nursery unnoticed, found their way home – wanting to surprise their parents – but got frostbite. Thankfully they’re alive.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-46964539

Comments are closed.