Saturday Forecast

70 Comments

8:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 26-30)
As we move into the late days of January we eye a couple more storm systems, neither of which look like impressive precipitation producers, although one will be more productive than the other, and we also look to the arrival of an arctic air mass at the very end of this 5-day period. First, we start with a fair but chilly day today as a narrow area of high pressure dominates. This high will move off to the east Sunday, which will end up a milder way as a warm front moves through while its parent low moves down the St. Lawrence Valley. This front may produce a touch of light snow, favoring areas north and west of Boston, and then a few rain showers may occur in the warm sector which will be over the region during the afternoon. This system’s cold front will come through uneventfully late in the day and will return colder air to the region for Monday as an extension of high pressure in east central Canada noses into New England. While this is happening, a strong ocean storm will get going and travel up along the cold front as it continues to move away from New England later Monday, so that storm will safely remain over the water. During this time, another low will travel into the Great Lakes, bringing our next round of unsettled weather into the region Tuesday. This looks like another warm front / cold front combo, and with a little more moisture to work with more of the region should see a snow to mix to rain situation. The initial cold front coming through early Wednesday will be in the process of having a wave of low pressure develop on it, and this may occur right over southern New England so that there may be a burst of rain ending as mix or snow as colder air arrives. Will have to keep an eye on this as enough snow at the wrong time could cause issues with the Wednesday morning commute, but being several days away still it’s really impossible to know how this will work out, specifically. During the day Wednesday, a secondary cold front will come through, possibly with a snow shower, and definitely introducing some of the coldest air of the season-so-far with a temperature free-fall likely occurring by the end of the day. Will work on the timing and details.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 26-33. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 15-22. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with a couple periods of light snow possible, favoring northern MA and southern NH. Variably cloudy afternoon with a passing rain shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind light variable early, becoming S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH but a few higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 29-36. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow/mix/rain. Temperatures rise through the 30s.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain/mix/snow potential to start, then sun/cloud mix with late-day snow shower possible. Temperatures start out upper 30s to lower 40s then fall rapidly by late-day.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 4)
Dry and very cold end to January. Will watch a low pressure trough coming along which may spawn a surface low and a chance of snow February 1 before drier and a more modified cold for the February 2-3 weekend. A warm-up possible to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 5-9)
The weather is somewhat more indeterminate than is even average for a period 11 to 15 days away. Trying not to be swayed by inconsistent guidance and have seen signals for both moderation and a cold/dry pattern. Will split the difference for now and call for a few air mass changes but minor weather systems between them.

70 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  3. Thanks TK!

    According to Barry, most of the precip (rain/snow) will be occurring Wednesday morning. Potential flash freeze set up?

    1. Not really flash freeze. After the precip ends it will hang above freezing for a while. We’ll have to wait for the second cold front to arrive before the rock-drop temps.

    1. I’d say there was wiggle room there for something eventful. Not say it would happen, but certainly something to watch. what if that precip void in the middle
      of the 2 heavier areas filled in?????

      1. Thanks, as always, for all the great info !

        It will be interesting to see if and where a secondary low developed.

        I do think all this data this morning shows that even if the column had some slight issues, it’s just that, they are slight and it won’t take much cooling to get snow and perhaps the secondary system would have the dynamics to do it.

        Something to watch I believe the next 48 to 72 hrs and where it trends toward.

        1. Agree. Could end up with rain to “some” mix/snow towards the end. Could change sooner and have
          a moderate to possibly major snow event.
          Odds do not favor that with the way this Winter has
          gone. We shall see what this morning’s runs show.

      2. So sorry to hear this. Hugs to Mrs. OS and to you. Not that they do much good but please know we are all thinking positive thoughts for you.

    1. Sinus headache that had me all day yesterday vanished last night just in time for a quick episode of a-fib which I quickly corrected with medication and now other than still clearing out the sinuses I am doing quite well. 🙂 Thank you!

  6. New England could be lucky with the way the jet stream is setting up.

    For now, looks like coldest of cold travels from Great Lakes into southeast Canada. If the jet stream were truly more northwest to southeast, we might be looking at a below zero high temp for Boston in several days.

    1. PV lobes can be like elongating and contracting wobbling jello. We probably do miss the brunt on this upcoming one.

      1. I only want it to be “just cold enough” for an all/mostly snow event. Logan in particular needs one badly.

        No more brutal/record cold please.

  9. Next weeks system will be greatly dependent on how late does it form. Looking at the EPS ensembles thats seems to be the difference the timing of development. some have some of the best placements I have seen for a good old nor-easter, but not sure how favorable the overall pattern is for such a development.

  11. Interesting discussion from NWS

    Late Tue into Wed…
    Parent low pres associated with arctic intrusion rotates NE
    through the Great Lakes late Tue. Noting modest isentropic lift
    in advance. Noting mass field signature for cold air damming as
    high pres slides toward the Maritimes and strong N component to
    initial ageostrophic flow. Therefore, likely see period of SN to
    start as mid lvls gradually warm. Then focus is on secondary
    cyclogenesis associated with a PWAT plume nearly 2 std
    deviations above normal (+1.00 inches) along a 50-60 kt LLJ (per
    ECENS/ECMWF solution). Should this occur, a higher impact storm
    is anticipated, as the secondary low pres would draw warm air
    only across the SE quadrant of S New England if track is
    directly overhead or maintain an all sub 0C BL if the track is
    offshore, increasing the risk for more SN/ice in either case. In
    fact, some portions of the W interior may never fully change if
    this verifies. To add to it, also noting indications of comma-
    head instability in these solutions as well, suggesting risk for
    heavier precip continues even as the sfc low pres pivots NE.
    Again, still too early to completely bite on one solution but
    will be erring this way slightly due to consistency in models.
    It may well work out that the final answer is between the much
    more progressive GFS and the more amplified ECMWF, as these are
    typical model biases. In any case, will need to watch this
    forecast closely. Premature for any totals.

        1. I suppose there is always the chance, since we ultimately don’t know what’s in store, but I am going to go out on a limb and say they will beat the all time record low snow by several inches at least.

  14. I thought I had asked but when I went back to see if I had an answer could not find my question. If that makes any sense at all

    Does anyone have totals from the last storm for both Logan and JPD’s house?

    Also, do the totals count from the November storm toward this year’s guesses? If so, does anyone have those. I thought I did but cannot find them.

    Sorry for my lack of record keeping.

      1. Thank you JPD. Does this mean you are keeping track. That could be what we decided on and I forgot. Sorry. Going in too many directions at once time.

  16. Latest CFS 6-week forecast…

    Week 1 precip: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=apcpna&runtime=2019012606&fh=168
    Week 1 temps: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019012606&fh=168

    Week 2 precip: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=apcpna&runtime=2019012606&fh=336
    Week 2 temps: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019012606&fh=336

    Week 3 precip: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=apcpna&runtime=2019012606&fh=504
    Week 3 temps: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019012606&fh=504

    Week 4 precip: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=apcpna&runtime=2019012606&fh=672
    Week 4 temps: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019012606&fh=672

    Week 5 precip: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=apcpna&runtime=2019012606&fh=840
    Week 5 temps: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019012606&fh=840

    Week 6 precip: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=apcpna&runtime=2019012606&fh=1008
    Week 6 temps: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-avg&region=us&pkg=T2maMean&runtime=2019012606&fh=1008

      1. These types of winters have come in pairs several times. My early call for next winter is similar to this one. 😉

        1. Is summer coming in a pair? I’d like to be able to go outside this summer but if it is, it is.

          Profound words to be sure

          1. We will indeed have a summer. 😉

            Actually I already have an idea about summer based on some long term indices which I will start talking about in the coming weeks. Advanced hint. Less humid than 2018’s summer.

            2. That made me smile But I asked if it would come in a pair you silly man. And that would work for me. Thank you.

                1. That there will be a summer and God willing we will all be here to enjoy whatever it is…..am I close 🙂

  18. This winter has been way better than 2012 my senior year of high school which was extremely warm, we technically already have had more snow than that crappy year. Ski conditions way better, that was the year I destroyed my ankle/lower leg. I agree with JimmyJames. I can deal with the cold and dry, its when its warm and wet or warm and dry that I hate Snowy periods if not cold and dry will do. Ski areas have way more snow than they did back in 2012, I hope to be going to Stratton within the next few weeks.

      2. it doesn’t it was just that it was also my senior year of high school in which we would not of been needing to make any of the snow days up but we only got 2 in october and the year before got like 10.

  19. A few signs today that MJO may actually reach moderate strength the next 4 to 7 days but there are also signs that after that as it hangs around phases 6 and 7 it will turn toward 8 and then right back to very weak to neutral. Not over yet.

  20. These 3 items I take away from the CFS 6-week forecast:

    1. Core of the extreme cold never quite makes it into NE.
    2. Most of the U.S. coast-to-coast will be on the DRY side.
    3. TK was correct all along…well ahead of the curve as always! 🙂

Comments are closed.