Thursday August 24 2023 Forecast (7:06AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 24-28)

While a high pressure ridge continues to bottle the late summer heat up in the middle of the US, a trough of low pressure will drop out of Canada and enter the Northeast via the Great Lakes during the next couple of days. Surface low pressure associated with this feature will send its warm front our way, which will increase the clouds from west to east during today. Rainfall associated with this front will hold off until later this evening and overnight, arriving from west to east, with the most widespread activity good up until about midday Friday. This will then push off to the east and while the front attempts to lift through the region, but may not make it all the way through before low pressure from the west drags the boundary back to the south and southeast Friday night into Saturday. A couple more showers and possibly a thunderstorm can take place during this process, and one disturbance can cause a more widespread shower batch during the early morning hours Saturday before this exits to the east around daybreak. Saturday will be a transition day as that system slowly moves away and high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. We’ll end up in a northerly air flow between the two with a surface drying trend, while chilly air alot keeps it unstable enough that we can see a few pop up showers later in the day. I do think this activity will be limited, however, with no need to cancel any Saturday outdoor plans. Just add the priority of monitoring the radar for whatever location you will be in and have a plan in case you’re interrupted. Again, most won’t have to deal with this. High pressure edges eastward from the Great Lakes into New England during the course of Sunday with fair and comfortably dry weather, and the high hangs on into if not through Monday with fair weather continuing. We may see some clouds making a comeback later Monday in response to the approach of the next unsettled weather system. This will be another trough that drops into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley as the high pressure ridge in the central US retrogrades into the western Plains and Rockies by the start of next week…

TODAY: Any early morning low elevation fog will dissipate by mid morning. Sunshine gives way to clouds from west to east during the course of the day. Highs 73-80. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog forming. Showers arriving west to east. Lows 61-68. Dew point climbs over 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog until mid morning. Widespread showers until midday. Scattered to isolated showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms midday on. Highs 71-78. Dew point peaking middle to upper 60s. Wind SE-S north of I-90, S-SW south of I-90, generally 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog redevelop. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm, with a more widespread shower area possibly moving through from west to east just before dawn. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early morning clouds, areas of fog, and maybe a lingering shower especially eastern coastal areas, favoring Cape Cod, then clouds break for sun with a slight chance of isolated showers midday-afternoon. Highs 70-77. Dew point hovers 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early, becoming N and increasing to 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling into 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine may give way to some clouds by later in the day. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

August 29 is vulnerable to higher humidity and showery weather as a trough of low pressure moves through the region, based on current timing. The same trough would help keep forecast Hurricane Franklin well offshore between the US East Coast and Bermuda as it starts to accelerate northeast. An offshore system like that does send higher ocean swells and surf into the coastline though, so be aware of that if you have beach and/or boating plans, and this may start as early as Monday and linger through the middle of next week. Looking for a return to dry weather heading through midweek as the trough pulls away and another dry, cool airmass arrives August 30, then modifies as high pressure builds overhead and south of the region from the final day of August into the first couple days of September.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

The large scale pattern will feature a flatter overall flow, but still high pressure ridging in the Rockies and western Plains while a trough has taken up residence in the Midwest with more high pressure off the US East Coast. This allows surface high pressure to potentially maintain control through the Labor Day Weekend with a gradual increase in warmth and humidity. Eventually the trough from the west increases our unsettled weather chances but may not occur until later in this period.

60 thoughts on “Thursday August 24 2023 Forecast (7:06AM)”

  5. Looking forward to the 12z short range models.

    See what their output for rainfall is late tonight and tomorrow.

    Runs have consistently been an inch +, but a few runs have had some areas with more than that.

      1. Thanks and that sounds good to me.

        The way our schedule is working out and with school approaching, I’m supposed to spend one day on the campground ….. tomorrow, lol !

        (Many in our family start camping today all the way until Labor Day) I’ll eventually be joining again for Labor Day weekend.

        Oh well 🙂

      1. Put some projections on the wall, blind fold yourself and throw a dart. That will be your rainfall. 🙂

  15. 12z UkMet and GDPS both now have a gulf system.

    Looking at the depictions, I must admit the Fujiwhara effect popped in my head. (I know that won’t happen) 🙂

  16. As you’ll see in my blog in a little while, I’m more pessimistic for Sunday at this point. Most of the models have the upper-level trough centered over southeastern Canada and New England, with another disturbance rotating around it. The GFS and ECMWF both have more showers on Sunday. I’m not that pessimistic yet, but I’m forecasting more cloudcover than TK is showing, along with the chance for a few showers.

  18. Vicki, I’m hanging in there. Thanks for asking. Still the same set of symptoms but it’s all manageable. I miss my outdoor runs, though. I might do some indoor jogging tomorrow if I feel up to it.

  22. If I may ask for thoughts and prayers for my brother. He fell and broke four ribs on his right Tuesday. He has blood in his right lung. They Inserted a tube to drain that lung, but his oxygen level remains very low. He was just taken to ICU.

  23. Sending positive thoughts and prayers for your brother, and also for strength for you. Hope all turns out well.

    1. Thank you, Philip. He is my older half brother. We share the same Dad. My younger brother passed away almost 30 years ago.

  27. Detroit and vicinity getting crushed.

    Seeing wind gusts of 52, 54, 55 and 58 mph in the vicinity of Detroit.

  28. Toledo just gusted to 58 mph

    Temp was 84F with a 79F !! dew point before the straight line winds arrived.

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