Friday August 25 2023 Forecast (7:14AM)

46 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 25-29)

When I made the comment that summers containing an unsettled June and July are often followed by a splendid August and September, I was worried that I might have to eat those words. Well, I’ve had to snack on them a few times as we never have really broken out of the unsettled pattern during the month of August either. Although we have had some nice days in there, and before the month is done, we will enjoy a few more. Despite that, we still have unsettled weather to endure, including and especially today (and maybe again before the end of the 5-day period). Focusing on today’s event first, the clouds that were slow to move in yesterday in advance of this system finally did so and thickened up overnight with the first warm frontal showers arriving mid to late evening. Since then the area has seen fairly widespread shower activity which will continue for much of the day today. The most persistent shower activity will occur in the eastern half of the WHW forecast area, basically I-495 belt east. Original optimism I had about longer rain-free periods for this region this afternoon has faded and it looks like it will be a pretty wet day overall, though areas to the west will still get a break in the activity more often as we head through the day. The warm front that approaches never really gets through here at all, so a broad onshore component to the wind flow will keep it on the cool side today despite the high humidity. While a couple of embedded thunderstorms can occur in these rounds of showers today and this evening, the parameters for strong to severe storms will not line up, so we won’t be needing to worry about tracking any of that. The region will receive a general 1 to 2 inches of rainfall from this event, with a few locations favoring southeastern MA possibly exceeding the 2 inch mark. A positive aspect of this is that flooding will be limited due to the more drawn-out timeline of heavier rainfall as opposed to having it all fall over a few hour’s time. The ground is already wet and the water tables are high, so it doesn’t take much to return to flooding status especially in prone areas. This system will not be in a hurry to exit tonight with the shower and isolated thunderstorm threat continuing into the overnight hours, but shifting to favor the I-95 belt eastward. There is somewhat better news for the weekend. While we’re not going to have a perfect summer weekend, the final one of August will feature OK weather. Dew points will remain fairly high Saturday with a slow drop-off from west to east as a frontal boundary pushes through. This front can still help to trigger isolated showers with thunderstorms a little more possible than today due to better heating and instability, but it’s not a set-up for widespread activity. If you have outdoor plans Saturday, just keep an eye on the sky and/or radar and have a plan in place just in case. For many of us, these plans will not be needed. Saturday evening, drier air finally makes its way in from the north, and on Sunday we’ll experience a cooler day with lower dew points, but the combination of a more northeasterly air flow and a weak disturbance aloft will create some additional clouds, and I cannot rule out a couple isolated pop up showers. Again though, this is nothing worth cancelling outdoor plans over. High pressure builds over the region with fair and comfortable weather Monday. Things begin to change again on Tuesday as the high slips away to the northeast and a trough approaches from the west. At the same time, western Atlantic tropical cyclone activity (forecast Hurricane Franklin) is expected to be occurring. The trough approaching is fully expected to help keep that system well offshore, but it will be close enough that increased ocean swells / surf and enhanced rip current risk takes place early next week. Keep this in mind if you have plans that include being at the coast. What I am not sure of yet is the timing of any rainfall threat associated with the approaching trough. Yesterday, my thought process was a wet Tuesday, but medium range guidance has slowed this system enough to make me lean toward a later arrival at this point, but will continue to monitor and refine the timing. For now, just anticipate that Tuesday won’t be as nice as Monday.

TODAY: Patchy fog early. Cloudy with widespread to numerous showers this morning, numerous to scattered showers this afternoon, including the slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 65-72. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 60-67. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Patchy fog early. Isolated midday and afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle to upper 60s through midday, lowering slowly thereafter. Wind S to SW increasing to 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW from west to east during the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point falling into 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Dew point 50s. Highs 68-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lower elevation fog patches. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point 50s. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds return. Shower chance increases. Highs 72-79. Dew point climbs to 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

A trough moving through the region brings the chance of showers at least into August 30 (timing uncertain) before high pressure builds in for fair weather to end the month and start September.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

Higher humidity and eventual shower chances as a trough approaches and moves in from west to east, favoring mid period.

46 thoughts on “Friday August 25 2023 Forecast (7:14AM)”

  4. Thanks TK.

    Another “dark” day in August. I used to believe that November was the darkest month but now I wonder. Maybe August is at least #2.

        1. August is #4? 😉

          Having said that, I bet that of all of the 3 summer months August is the “darkest”.

  6. Thanks, TK.

    The sights and sounds of heavy rain in the summer of 2023. That is the theme of this summer. It’s been rare that we got a gentle light rain. When it has rained it has usually poured.

  7. Thanks TK.

    Vicki, I just read about your brother. All the best to him. Hope his recovery is short and he is feeling healthy again soon.

    1. Well, there is something I sure didn’t know. Thank you.

      Btw, the 2nd link, I ABSOLUTELY KNEW what it was before I even clicked the link. 🙂 🙂

      If you didn’t, I would have. 🙂 🙂

      1. Hahahahaha. I had no idea about the fact part either but am laughing at how predictable the song is. I’ve been humming it since I read the report on the discovery

  10. Without looking at the data, my perception is that it’s been a relatively dark summer, and this has been rather consistent throughout the three months.

    By the way, even though December is darker than November in terms of daylight hours, I find it generally darker than December. This isn’t just because of the holidays (festivals of lights) in December. My perception – which of course is subject to error (!) – is that bright wintry days can be plentiful in December, while with perhaps the exception of the first week of November (sometimes a last gasp of sunny and nice days) November tends to be gloomier.

    1. Meant to say “I find November [not it] darker than December.” Of course, December can’t be darker than itself.

      My Covid brain is mush.

      1. Hope you are improving.

        I agree with your perspective. I’m never bothered by the dark days….after all I now declare every last one as a pajama day……but this has been a dark summer as I’m sure there have been others. But as I think of it, I have never thought of November as dark. And I’d never think of December as dark.

        Even knowing that they are darker months

      2. I think it’s become we’re still actively losing daylight faster than December, so the sense of it being taken away is stronger.

    1. Thank you, Rainshine. His son just visited him. He said that his oxygen level is a bit up but not where they want it. They will do an abdominal scan today to see if he is developing pneumonia

  13. Joshua, is it possible that you have the latest variant BA.2.86? I heard about on the national tv morning news.

    Hope you get better soon. I get the impression that you still have aways to go on this latest bout. No better, no worse.

    1. No. Well, when I was an expert witness in a case lawyers told me never to say “no” under oath unless I was sure of it. And I’m not sure of it. But it’s highly unlikely. BA.2.86 (nicknamed Pirola) has only been confirmed in a few cases thus far. Of course, there isn’t much official testing going on. But I doubt whether I would have caught the least likely sub-variant. More than likely I caught the most likely sub-variant named Eris.

      Given my history of susceptibility, Pirola will get me sooner or later. I’m a walking coronavirus dartboard.

    2. And yes this Covid bout ain’t fun. The isolation sucks. I’m still testing super-positive, meaning it’s a bright red stripe. Plus the sneezing, coughing, and sore throat (diminished, thank goodness) aren’t pleasant. Still, I have had worse in my lifetime.

  14. Vicki, I’ve been thinking about your brother a lot. I hope he does have pneumonia. My thoughts go out to him and his family, including you.

    1. Thank you very much Joshua . He does have aspiration pneumonia in his left lung and blood in his right lung. They has to intubate him. He lost his wife just a year ago after eight months in the hospital. She was intubated for a good portion of that time. This is going to bring back scary memories for him.

  16. Philip, one last note on BA.2.86. Similar to meteorology in some ways, it’s difficult to predict long-term how the coronavirus BA.2.86 will unfold. Just like in weather, what we know is what we observe, in addition to historic precedent. But, we can’t know for sure, say more than 72 hours out, how intense a storm will be, its precise positioning. In the case of Pirola, we know it has 30 mutations, which likely make it immune-evasive. But what we don’t know is whether it will outcompete other sub-variants. Sometimes having `too many’ mutations makes a virus fragile. Other times it doesn’t.

    For lessons on known knowns and unknown unknowns, it’s always good to refer to the Rumsfeld matrix. https://twitter.com/girdley/status/1683084422923579392

  17. Nice, gentle rain today.

    I don’t remember a lot of these this summer.

    Feels like we’ve had deluges, where someone had gotten multiple inches of rain in a short time period.

    1. This afternoon anyway, Over night and earlier this AM
      it was POURING!!!!

      I was out a while ago, and it was hard to determine it it was a heavy drizzle or light rain. 🙂

  18. Today’s 12z op runs: the GFS is starting to look like the ECMWF, and vice-versa. 😉 HAHA! I just *** love *** when the guidance does this. 😛

    2. Dickie started out in Denver if I’m not mistaken.

      Before he returned to the Boston area, who was the Ch. 5 evening meteorologist? I forget.

      JPD, do you remember by chance?

      1. U.S. Air Force Meteorologist, KOA-TV in Denver, KRON-TV in San Francisco, KOB-TV in Albuquerque, New Mexico, then WCVB-TV in Boston.

        1. That’s the other guy I was trying to remember. he resided in my old home town of millis. I even know the street. no I was long gone when he was there

        2. Thanks TK. I wanted to say him but my first thought that he was mostly mornings subbing for Bob Copeland. If I remember correctly, Bob Ryan went on to NBC’s Today Show who preceded Willard Scott.

          Am I correct on all that TK?

          1. Yes, Ryan went there then ended up on a couple other stations, one for quite some time.

            For a while Ryan & Copeland were the only 2 mets at ch 5 and they both worked 6 days a week.

            Bill Hovey was a weekend met most of the time when he was there.

  21. 3km NAM, RRFS, and HRRR all have different specifics for both Saturday & Sunday. Even the short range guidance can’t get into agreement. Fun times for a forecaster. 🙂

    1. My sister asked me of all people for a forecast. She and her husband are avid hikers and will be doing Mt. Lafayette tomorrow. She said, “since you always talk about weather, in fact we think you’re obsessed, we figured we’d ask you.”

      Needless to say, I told her that I know very little about meteorology and that I’m just interested in it. Further, I advised her to go to the Higher Summits Forecast that the Mt. Washington Observatory posts on its website.

      1. There’s about a 20% chance of a shower or t-storm mid afternoon, otherwise I think it’s dry there.

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