Friday December 12 2025 Forecast (6:40AM)

81 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 12-16)

The cold side of December continues to be dominant today and for the coming several days as well. Blustery weather continue today between low pressure to our northeast and high pressure to our west. Winds will diminish tonight and Saturday as the high moves into the region. We then turn our attention to a clipper low pressure area which will redevelop as it remains progressive, passing just south of our region on Sunday. Its interaction with some jet stream energy to the north will help determine its rate of strengthening, which then determines how much moisture can be wrung out of the air in the form of snow over our region on Sunday – although marginal temperatures mean a snow/rain mix potential for Outer Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket. This is not expected to be a prolific snow producer, but for much of the region can drop enough to require at least some limited snow removal operations, especially since we don’t warm up right after it, but go the other way with a shot of colder to follow it, but with dry weather Monday and Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: A sun / cloud mix. Highs 31-38. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 21-28. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow likely, mostly light but may become moderate for a while, and may be mixed with rain Outer Cape Cod / Islands. Snow accumulation a coating to 2 inches except 2-4 inches in the Plymouth MA to Providence RI corridor. Highs 27-34, mildest Cape Cod. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 10 at times.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-17. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 17-21)

Up-and-down temperature pattern with one or two low pressure systems crossing the Great Lakes region. Limited moisture should keep any precipitation – rain favored for first system – rather brief. A second system’s track is close enough to carry a rain/mix/snow potential but no indications of a major system. The winter solstice occurs at 10:03 a.m. EST on December 21.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 22-26)

The up-and-down temperature pattern continues but with a leaning toward the colder side overall. An additional episode or two of precipitation possible but early indications for no major storminess to occur. Additional detail can be provided for this Christmas period as we get closer to it.

81 thoughts on “Friday December 12 2025 Forecast (6:40AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Temp 22 now and overnight.

    Ocean: 47

    Wordle: 5

    Why do I get the feeling the snow appears to be trending Southward????

    Reply

  4. Wordle: 3

    Even though we have had a morning with colder air temps, this morning had the harshest feeling walk into the building with a decent breeze directly into the face.

    Reply

    3. Tom – I’ll join you wherever the 3s ride today.

      After the second guess all I had was one vowel in the wrong place. But all the missed letters eliminated lots of other possibilities for me.

      Reply

  11. It still remains to be seen if Boston gets its measurable snowfall. According to a Ch. 25 met last night, it’s two weeks late.

    NYC could end up with just as much snow as Worcester (3.9”).

    I can picture the northeast all white with a snow hole over Boston. Snow to the west, north and south.

    Reply

  14. I notice TK mentioned in his discussion “some interaction with jet stream energy to the north” and I think sometimes that can expand a precip shield a little more than the models will simulate in this range before the event.

    Reply

        1. Yes 🙂

          So, another reason its laughable on facebook and twitter when weather pages post snow events 7-10 days out and then write …… Its not a forecast.

          Reply

  16. Snowbelt of New England – Jay’s Peak, as Mark often reminds us – is having quite the week: https://x.com/SurfSkiWeather/status/1999456212744831252

    Tim Kelley often includes interesting tidbits in his tweets. He noted that parts of Western Washington state – an area known for quite a bit of rain in normal times – have gotten over 20 inches of rain this week. It’s from an “atmospheric river” that extends some from the Philippines to the Pacific Northwest.

    Reply

    1. The Euro-AI shows 2.2 inches of snow

      The GFS-AI doesn’t have any winter weather options that I can see, but does total .18 melted for Boston from the system.

      Reply

  22. Looks like the 12Z Euro has nudged the snow ever so lightly Northward. Waiting for the run to go out far enough to be sure.

    Reply

    2. I think with some confidence, we can say the ground should be whitened in the Boston area on Sunday.

      Might it be enough to cover the blades of grass, I don’t know, probably so when you get a bit further south of Boston.

      But I’m still in the 1-3″ camp, towards the lower end of the range for Boston and hoping Marshfield is in the higher end of the range.

      Reply

      1. Something like that and there is still room for “some” more Nothward movement and there is always the “surprise” element. We shall see. I am not expecting much more than an inch or so here, but hope to be surprised by 3 or 4 inches.
        A nice “festive” snowfall. NOT enough to last till Christmas for sure!!

        Reply

  24. https://www.newsminer.com/arctic_cam/

    So, Fairbanks has been 20-30F below zero and a storm is approaching from their west, overrunning less cold air over the cold dome in place and since midnight, they have been snowing.

    And look at those tire tracks, my guestimate would be at least 6″, which is a healthy amount for Fairbanks as they don’t have as much access to moisture as New England does. Pretty impressive !

    Reply

      1. Thanks JpDave !!

        I didn’t know that webcam existed.

        I like it better as its easier to see it snowing.

        That one I posted, its guessing snow rate by visibility in the image.

        Reply

              1. Animal. There was a Musk Ox in the image right after you posted !! It was amazing !!

                But, I hadn’t read the name of the cam, so, I didn’t know if it was a bear or buffalo or what ….. It was so cool to see, it took off to the left and the cam rotated, but it couldn’t keep up with it again.

                I’ll definitely peak at this cam from time to time, going forward.

                Reply

                1. yeah, at the current time right now, at the bottom, go back 21-22 mins and its there briefly.

                  Or, it occured at 1:02 pm our time, so if someone reads this at 2:02pm, go back 1 hr.

  25. I feel like throughout the year the rain has overperformed on the South Coast, Let’s see if the snow does the same. I always feel the first day of summer should be bright sunshine and 90 degrees and I feel the first day of winter should be snowing and 30 degrees so goof for Mother Nature to provide some snow on Sunday.

    Reply

  30. 12z Euro delivers some snowy times around Christmas including this on Christmas Eve:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025121212&fh=282&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&m=ecmwf_full

    And this on 12/26:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2025121212&fh=342&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Snow:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc-imp&rh=2025121212&fh=360&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Reply

  31. The time has come for a quick check-in and updated thoughts…

    Sports…
    -No changes on my thoughts about the upcoming Pats / Bills game. The favorite to win it is the team that plays a better game. There’s no playing in snow or cold advantage of disadvantage. All of the players are to be playing in the same conditions, and those weather-based predictions are overrated and often meaningless.
    -Bruins having a strong road trip and are on a 4 game winning streak, having defeated the Blues & Devils at home before hitting the road and beating the Blues (5-2) and Jets (6-3). Next game is in Minnesota against the Wild at 6:00 p.m. Sunday. They’ve struggled against this team at times. Swayman will likely be in net and his play has been stellar of late!
    -This is the time I really start paying attention to winter sports (Olympics ones) as we head toward the 2026 games in Italy. This is my thing. 🙂 I’ll talk more about that soon!

    Weather…
    -Today was another cold one as expected, and not as windy but still gusty at times. Tomorrow should feature more cold but much more tranquil conditions, setting up the Sunday system. No changes in my thoughts on that. This was never destined to be a large snowfall anywhere, just a light one, with borderline moderate amounts possible if moisture is maximized in the Plymouth-Providence corridor. That remains to be seen and is basically a “game time decision” by the atmosphere. 😉
    -I’m getting more confident in the up-and-down pattern versus just a milder pattern heading through the second half of December. Recall the Indian Ocean Dipole tilting negative, with extra convection in Indonesia and the Philippines, in turn strengthening the Pacific jet stream? We see the results of that already with the storminess in the PNW. Eventually it plays a role in the large-scale milder pattern that scours out the cold across a good portion of the country. That said, the MJO, despite a lot of variability in the guidance, is indicated by the majority of ensemble members to float around Phase 7 / 8 in a weak to moderate intensity over the next 2 to 3 week. The combination of these indices prevent a full re-tightening of the PV, with another stretching episode keeping colder air closer-by in Canada. The AO & NAO are forecast to waver around neutral for the balance of December, but can tilt negative at any time. There are some indicates are a trend to slightly negative for the NAO starting just after December 15. What does this mean for our area? Remember several days or a week ago in the longer range part of my forecast I said our region may end up near a battle zone and was leaning toward the colder side as dominant over the warmer side? Well, if you don’t remember, that is what I said. And it is what I am still saying today. In other words, no changes. 🙂

    Have a great rest of the day as well as weekend!

    Reply

      1. Omg. I of course meant TK. And I autocorrected. How I don’t know. But I get a bunch of different auto corrects when I type TK

        Reply

    2. Thanks Dr. S…still remains to be seen if Boston gets their measurable snowfall. I would feel better if there is more northern progress.

      Reply

  36. Will next mid week warm up be cut off at the pass? When models in the spring depict a big warm up then the warm air is stalled around New York City or Long Island.
    I’m hoping we can get a brief break from the cold.

    Reply

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