Sunday August 20 2023 Forecast (7:23AM)

96 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)

Into late August we go with some nice weather finally outweighing unsettled weather, at least for a stretch of days, and a continuation of the lack of heat with a cool northwesterly air flow being dominant overall. However, we do start the period with a 2-day warm-up today and Monday. Yesterday being as cool as it was with a lot of clouds, it won’t be hard to warm up today with much more sun and a land breeze. Humidity stays low. That humidity will start to increase tonight into Monday ahead of an approaching cold front, which will bring periods of clouds to the region and a few passing showers possible especially late Monday afternoon and evening. The front keeps on moving through, and we see a dry, cooler air mass for Tuesday through midweek, though clouds may be moving in by later Thursday in response to the next approaching low pressure trough.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloud / sun intervals. A late-day shower possible. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lower elevation fog patches possible. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)

A frontal boundary and low pressure system moving through the region brings unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms August 25. I’m optimistic for a drier air mass from Canada to arrive for the August 26-27 weekend, but there’s a little uncertainty on how quickly this may take place. Fair weather should prevail later in the period with high pressure in control.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

A general northwest flow is expected between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure in central central US. This pattern is not hot and not too wet, but a couple episodes of unsettled weather likely occur with passing disturbances.

96 thoughts on “Sunday August 20 2023 Forecast (7:23AM)”

  2. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=500wh&rh=2023082000&fh=192&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2023082000&fh=192&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Have to watch for trends on if something wants to cutoff and where …..

    For this possible entity. It’s not unlikely, but it could be there to be yanked closer to the east coast, especially if a 500 mb low closes off to our southwest.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/90L_geps_latest.png

      1. I KNEW we would have a winner!!!!

        It is one of the tall Bridge Pylons. Photon taken by my son yesterday as he walked the Golden Gate Bridge. Pretty awesome engineering.

        Here’s another

        https://ibb.co/Bn44kLd

        1. Love it. Not sure I would have guessed correctly. Love the photo and hope your son is having a wonderful trip. Is this is his first visit there?

          1. He arrived home at 5:45 AM this morning. Thank you.

            No, he had been there briefly once before on a business trip to Sacramento. He took a day off and made a side trip to San Fran.

        2. I only guessed that because I remember you mentioning the other day your son was on a well deserved vacation and I thought you mentioned San Francisco.

  7. welL the Atlantic is waking up fortunately for me the main part of i90L is moving west of us down here in the USVI and the others out there looks to be fish storms. Interesting how I90L moves northward, good thing that you have a Low pressure/front going off the NE coast.

    New England Patriots thoughts
    1. Hopefully Bolden makes a full recovery that was bad.

    Good.
    1. Patriots Pass defense ( pass rush/Coverage)
    2. Patriots offense scheme
    3. KB showing last years down year was all because of stupid Matt Patricia
    4. Running game is good, Taylor needs more reps as a passing back.
    5. Rookie recievers looking good.
    6. Douglas giving off true new England slot receiver vibes
    7. Boutte is good

    Bad.
    1. Offensive line.
    2. Run defense seems suspect
    2. Thorton is falling down the depth chart in my opinion.

    My predictions for QB, RB, R, and TE
    QB: Jones, Zappe Cunningham.
    RB. Stevenson, Elliot, Taylor
    Reciever. KB, Juju, Parker, Douglas, Boutte , (Cunningham)
    TE. Henry, Geski Sokol

    1. Hi Matt. Nice to see you here and hope all is well. Very glad the storm is not headed for you. Horribly sad for #7 Bolden. I’ve not seen an update this morning. And yes re Patricia but remember who put him in that position.

      1. im doing ok, I don’t remember if I posted this or not but June was rough, past roommate was found on the side of the road back in June, and my Mom was diagnosed with cancer. With that said my Mom is doing very good. Has good energy, cancer markers has been knocked down after each Kemo treatment and things are going in the right direction. Latest CT showed good things, but the MRI will really be telling. She just had her 4th kemo and have another round or have the surgery depending on what the doctor wants to do.

        1. Matt, I am so sorry to hear this news. Please know you will be in my prayers. I know your mom is in the very best care. Please keep us posted if you can. Sending you a message

  8. Thanks TK
    The majority of the days this week have comfortable levels of humidity. I like that.

  11. Thanks TK.

    Made it to Chicago this am where it is sunny hazy and warm on the edge of that heat dome. Just boarded our plane to Cabo San Lucas…looks like we are finally going to make it there. Will report on the weather when we arrive. Still seeing some minor impacts from Hilary there.

      1. Great news. JetBlue delayed us five hours leaving for Jamaica in March and canceled us on the way back. We got home on Delta and have flown Delta several times with no issues in the past. JetBlue has really gone downhill, as others said yesterday.

  14. From Norton NWS forecast discussion referring to Friday into Saturday:

    The second round of wet weather, this time more widespread, arrives
    on Friday ahead of a digging shortwave trough. Moist, southerly
    return flow kicks in on Friday bringing the return of dewpoints in
    the upper 60s by Saturday and widespread warm frontal showers and
    thunderstorms.

  15. If we were to have full sunshine tomorrow, some places may have made a run at 90. Haven’t seen many of those around recently!

    My only slightly-scientific prediction is that Boston (Logan) will add 2 more for a total of 6 for the season sometime between August 30 and September 21. 🙂

  16. So that would make 5 if I am correct??? This has to go down as one of the fewest 90 degree or higher days in the warm weather season.

    1. It’s on the low end of the list. Of course there’s a difference between Logan & inland, and there have been a few more 90+ days in general inland, as one would expect, but still, not anything close to a burn-it-up summer. Not this time.

      Never felt like it had potential to go furnace to me, so I didn’t forecast it.

      Still doesn’t stop us from some late summer heat, but by then you’ve already lost so much daylight, the impact is not the same.

  17. Philip…

    Re: Wildfire smoke. A diffuse plume coming through today / tomorrow.

    Hilary remnant rain. Not a factor here. Nearly all of that moisture gets wrung out over the mountains. Not the same thing as remnant moisture coming up via the Gulf or Southeast. Some of the energy from what was once the system will probably be passing southwest of us around Wednesday-Thursday as a blob of showers/thunderstorms (perhaps a quasi-MCS).

  18. TS Emily – short-lived fish storm. Hostile conditions. No threat to any land. Not even a threat to any fish, really… 😉

    1. the steering patterns are rather favorable for a series of Fishy storms when it comes to tropical cyclones.

  19. What I find unique about Hilary is that local officials actually DO NOT want residents to evacuate but to STAY HOME!!!

    If Hilary was anywhere other than southern CA (including SNE) evacuation orders would most certainly be in effect.

  23. This is from a colleague of mine…

    Hilary perspective…

    1) Going back to the mid-1800s, a total of 85 tropical cyclones have either directly or indirectly impacted California.
    2) Tropical cyclone impacts to California tend to occur more often in El Nino years, which is what we have now.
    3) Six tropical cyclones have produced sustained tropical storm-force winds (34 kt or more) in California and/or Arizona. Of these, Hurricane Nora in Sep 1997 intensity and track is much like Hilary’s forecast intensity/track.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Joanne_(1972)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kathleen

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Norman_(1978)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Nora_(1997)

    4) In Oct 1858, a hurricane passed just offshore of San Diego producing sustained near hurricane-force winds on the coast (strongest on record).
    5) Between Sep 4-25, 1939, *four* tropical cyclones affected California, including a direct landfall at Long Beach with sustained winds of 45 knots.
    6) Once you get north of 22 degrees latitude, ocean temps drop off very quickly below 26 C, and drop to 19 C off the northern coast of Baja California. This will lead to rapid weakening of Hilary. In addition, hot, dry air from the Desert Southwest and northwest Mexico plateau will quickly get entrained into the circulation, which will accelerating weakening. What you will likely see is a collapse of deep convection well before landfall, and Hilary will be this large swirl of low and middle clouds. Still will have gale-force winds as it takes time for such a large circulation to spin down, but really, southern California is used to gale-force winds from extratropical storms in the winter, so nothing really unusual for winds. Main thing will be the copious amounts of tropical moisture that will move into the Southwest U.S., and with orographic influences, numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms, esp. inland, will lead to big rainfalls total. Widespread 3-5″ of rain across much of southern California with likely 7-8″ max in the favorable upslope mountain areas. Moderate drought conditions exist across parts of southern California, so this is actually somewhat positive, other than the flooding, and it will further delay the wildfire season in this area.

      1. Completely different spot. Not only are they more than 50 miles apart, the elevation difference is over 7000 feet. That would be like trying to compare rain on Mt. Washington with heavy rain in Laconia.

  27. Hi all – longtime, no talk.

    I see the 12z ECMWF backed off its weekend fantasy. Late August and September, just as late November into Decemeber, and Late February into March are transitional weather periods. ECMWF loves to over amp and slow down disturbed weather systems during these periods. More subtly, it tends to run too cool by a couple of degrees on many days during these times.

    Life update. I have been in the UK a lot working in a consulting role for the UK Met Office and in conjunction with ECMWF (insert laugh) which is located in the UK as well, to work on better post processing surface products. Basically how to improve and deliver better probalistic forecast output for rainfall and temperature from model data using new downscaling techniques.

    Back home. Delivered my boys to college. Going to resume my teaching role for the 5 Colleges (well 3 of the 5) and then trips back to the UK in mid September, December, March and June before finishing up there.

    All the best always – J

    2. Great to see you here!

      I was just about to come on and post about the ECMWF. You covered that. 🙂

  28. Thank you. I suspect the point of the tweet is to discourage folks from trying to head to areas to document damage .

  32. Beautiful day – if you took away the smoke. It’s really been bad here. The sky is basically blue but the smell of smoke is awful. I would put on the air-conditioner but the air coming in isn’t too bad, humidity wise. And you can’t see any smoke in the air.

    Tom, that satellite photo you put up around 4:00 p.m. looks interesting.

    1. We’ll have to see if anything becomes of it the next 2 days before it comes ashore somewhere in south TX

        1. Yes. I’m glad it was not a major quake. Definitely don’t need something that requires a lot of resources to recover from.

  37. Atlantic Ideas…

    TD 6 gone by tomorrow morning.
    Emily gone by Tuesday morning.
    No impact anywhere from either.

    The new TD that will form in the Gulf of Mexico will do so shortly before moving ashore and will be gone by early Wednesday. NHC says “better organized” but it’s still pretty pathetic looking, so it will struggle to really get its act together and that will happen when it runs out of water to be over. That’s a good thing.

    The wave to the east will probably form but stay a fishy swirly, and never intensify overly much.

    Franklin will be the only longer term thing to deal with I think.

    Overall, Atlantic will be quieting down again in the days ahead.

    1. A dear friend of Mac’s parents in Charleston captained a Sealand ship. She often said when systems would go or stay out at sea that’s where her husband was.

  38. Looks like DeathValley/ furnace creek about to get into the heavy rain for a while, looking at recent radar returns. Should be a mess there for a bit. Wouldn’t be surprised if they picked up a couple of inches in a short amount of time. Unusual but at least they had plenty of time to make preparations for this.

    1. Basically all they can do is get out of the way. Thankfully (somewhat) it’s not a heavily populated area, but it’s a rough go for those who are there.

  42. Gert may be one of the shortest-lived named storms in history.

    Hey at least they’re helping themselves verify the “update”. Nice strategy. 😉

    BTW, Gert is not a tropical storm, even though they say it is. A thunderstorm northeast of a weak low center with wind gusts around 40 MPH? Nope. I could not disagree more with their decision.

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