Monday August 21 2023 Forecast (7:08AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)

The last full week of August begins with a warm and more humid day as a cold front approaches. This front’s approach will be heralded by a lot of clouds and partial sun, but only the chance of a passing shower later in the afternoon to early this evening from northwest to southeast across the area. Behind the front comes a push of cooler, drier air from Canada into midweek, with an area of high pressure moving in through Wednesday. High pressure slips offshore by Thursday and a warm front will approach from the west as another low pressure area moves into the Great Lakes. This front will bring a batch of showers to the region Thursday night into early Friday, and after its passage we’ll have a slug of humid air Friday until the cold front trailing the low pushes through the region that evening. Showers and thunderstorms will likely accompany the cold front’s approach and passage later Friday.

TODAY: Cloud / sun intervals. A late-day shower possible. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the early evening, then clearing. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lower elevation fog patches possible. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely. Areas of fog forming. Lows 60-67. Dew point rising over 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)

A shower chance may be present to start the weekend early on August 26, otherwise the trend is drier with below normal temperatures for August 26-27. High pressure should sit over our area early to mid portion of next week with fair weather and a gradual warming trend. Watch for increasing surf and swells along the coast by the middle of next week due to far offshore tropical cyclone activity.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

High pressure shifting offshore allows temperatures to average closer to or even a little above normal for a day or 2, but with a couple disturbances moving into and across the region, opportunities for showers are also going to be present at times. Not looking for a very wet pattern through as this period of time will be highly scrutinized for Labor Day Weekend plans.

56 thoughts on “Monday August 21 2023 Forecast (7:08AM)”

  11. Another tragedy on a northern New England river.

    Media/NWS perhaps can make public aware that the rivers are probably running well above summer flow averages if they already haven’t done so.

    1. Yes, indeed. Very sad. I am perplexed, however, why anyone would go near a river up there after knowing what happened last week at a similar spot. Perhaps they didn’t know about last week’s drowning, but it was all over the news.

      Here’s what happened this weekend:
      https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2023/08/20/lynn-father-drowns-rescue-family-new-hampshire-river/?p1=hp_featurestack

      And this is what happened last week: https://whdh.com/news/community-mourning-after-mother-from-lynn-drowns-trying-to-rescue-son-at-nh-river/

      Rivers like these are often quite dangerous. It’s usually not the depth of the water, but the current. I’ve done a lot of hiking up there, also with my kids. We never even went close to the river itself.

    2. I agree that it would be a good idea for media to get the word out. I am familiar with the Pemi and fished the swift maybe two or three times. Mostly stuck to the Ellis. Just horrific that both who drowned were trying to rescue loved ones. They are true heroes.

  14. The other weather story is the heat in the southern 2/3rds of the central part of the Country.

    Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, perhaps part of Iowa, Arkansas, Texas, Oklahoma, and perhaps a few other states.

    Brutal heat. Approaching or exceeding 105F

  15. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh_nb&rh=2023082112&fh=177&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

    If the GFS is correct which is a big IF

    If we look out over the North Atlantic, big 594 dm ridge and so, the projected hurricane can’t really escape out to sea.

    Then, the main jet is quite north, I mean, up by the arctic. So, that’s not a player to shove it east.

    Then, off the west coast is a closed low, which likely have disturbances rounding it, then up over the 4 corners ridge and from this far out, who knows how a disturbance could affect the troffy baginess over the eastern us.

    2. the gfs has actually not been that bad. All of them have been having a difficult time but the GFS has been good .

  20. The euro is similar to the GFS

    Same 4 features.

    Just off the west coast closed low.
    4 corners ridge
    Weak trofiness east
    Mid Atlantic ridge trying to retrograde a bit.

    I’d they have the general setup, going to have to watch how disturbances project to come out of the closed low and round the 4 corners ridge.

  21. Thanks TK.

    Moving into the post-storm phase here in SoCal. *Very early* thoughts:

    -Major storm, but rainfall rates were somewhat less than forecast and that helped to tame impacts. In other words, the storm was at least not any worse than expected, though it would be a huge mischaracterization to call it a bust. Winds mostly a non-factor, but that was pretty much expected.

    -Nonetheless, there’s a lot of remote areas out here that we don’t know the whole story from yet. I know for certain that impacts are worse than what has been reported by media so far, but still waiting to see exactly what the extent is. I think all the messaging about the severity of the storm was very much warranted. A lot of credit goes to local, state, and federal emergency managers who have done a great job handling this event. A lot of preemptive evacuation orders were issued and saved lives, and rescue teams have done a great job saving more lives of people trapped. But infrastructure damage, particularly on more remote federal lands, is very likely worse than known at the moment.

    1. Thank you, WxW. Very wise words. I agree that messaging was warranted. It always is. Downplaying any system with so much at stake would be irresponsible.

      Glad you are safe and thank you as always for checking in

    2. Very much agree about the remote areas. Hopefully as bad as the potential was. We’ll see. Fingers crossed.

      Thanks for checking in!

  22. Atlantic has certainly waken up, likely going to stay some what active.
    Gert is short lived but it was likely a TS for many hours prior to them identifying it as one.
    The system in the Gulf, might end up stronger than anticipated prior to landfall. (maybe strong TS)

    TS Franklin I don’t think is a TS at the moment. Mose models show a breakdown at the 850V level and then transfers northward. I think this is what is happening right now.

    TS Emily will continue to move north and suck up that dry air.

    Another wave off the coast of Africa might develop and might become if the I storm. If not the wave after that has support but like we need to wait for things to come into the NA continent, we need to wait for the AEWs to move off the coast of Africa for models to get a good handle of them.

    TK, Sak and others why is there such a lack of info going into the models over Africa?

    1. Not sure about the Africa model situation. I haven’t been looking that far too much recently.

      Franklin is hurting at the moment. Non-aligned mid & low level circulation, no banding, convection collapsed. Mountainous terrain will do a number on it too. May reorganized after that.

      At least for the amount of activity, most of it is fairly benign.

  24. One more tornado last Friday happened in Scotland CT. EF1 tornado with 100 mph winds on the ground for 2.7 miles.

    2. That was the one they were still working on.

      5 tornadoes all from the same super cell. That storm was basically THE event.

  25. Raining hard in Boston. At least we had 72 hours without rain. That’s been pretty much the limit this summer. And from the forecast it looks like we may have another 72 hour period of dry, but rain will surely follow.

    1. I suspect by Thursday evening the region will be getting wet again. I’ve been stubborn on the forecast with faster timing. Models decided to slow everything down. Didn’t buy it. Now they sped things up again. 🙂

    2. Tell me about it. I’m at Fenway for Guns n’ Roses (the acoustics are dreadful tonight), and got absolutely drenched. According to the WeatherBug at Fenway they got 0.68″, most of it in about half an hour between 7:45 and 8:15.

  26. A FB friend noticed several leaves turning colors. I mentioned to you, TK, on FB that one of our two early changers has a few red leaves. To me this is all typical for trees struggling. But my friend said she is hearing this means a really bad winter.

    I don’t want to bother you all for a long explanation. But am looking for a reason why this is not a sign of a bad winter. I told her I’d get back to her. It no hurry as it is nighttime and relaxing time. Thank you.

    2. The leaves and the bees (or wasps, as they have been observed for this reason too) are simply folklore. I realize that she didn’t mean this, but since it is used for “prediction” I decided to talk about it. Neither of these can predict the future, but are reacting to past and/or current conditions. Newscasters etc – well you know my thoughts on media hype, so I have nothing to add there. 🙂

      The swamp maples are going to turn early due to a combination of a little stress from last year’s drought, this year’s heavy moisture, and generally cool weather.

      So your perception of reaction is the correct one.

      1. Thank you very much, TK. I think it is newscasters that are speaking out. And I agree. We know what their goal is. I found both JRs and Eric’s thoughts …both clear they are preliminary. Neither is for a severe winter.

        The hard part is the news folks (and corporate) end up hurting the folks trained in meteorology. And there is no way for the average person to know this.

        1. I think we’ll have very decent foliage this year, despite the ups and downs in the weather in 2022 and 2023. In fact, the upcoming weather pattern may help spur some foliage development in far Northern NE in the next 10 days. Surely some mid to upper 40s at night are in the forecast for places like Caribou, Maine.

          1. According to a foliage “expert” on the WBZ-TV Ch. 4 six o’clock newscast, the foliage season will be much longer than last year. I guess that means the leaves won’t be falling off anytime soon. This is all due to our wet summer. It seems that last year’s drought made the leaves more vibrant but falling off the trees quickly.

            1. Yes, drought will make them drop sooner. Wetter seasons can make them hold on longer. But it’s only a partial factor. The trees main factor is always length of day, which is why you seldom see an anomaly of more than 2 weeks.

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