Sunday August 27 2023 Forecast (7:41AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 27-31)

The final 5 days of meteorological summer, like much of the summer has been, will lack heat but not lack an unsettled weather pattern. While we’ll be in for plenty of rain-free weather, we do have to talk about at least some form of shower chance on 4 out of the 5 days in this forecast period. It starts with today’s possibility of pop up showers due to the combination of a northeasterly air flow, some low level moisture, and a disturbance at mid levels drifting through from northwest to southeast. As the sun came up, we see a variety of conditions from stratus and patchy fog over parts of the South Shore to Cape Cod, broken mid level clouds across northern MA and southern NH, and more sun to the south of there. This variable sky coverage will continue, but with a tendency for clouds to become the dominant feature, limiting sun today. Showers are already ongoing with the approach of the mid level disturbance across southeastern NH, and this initial batch will fade and head southeastward through northeastern MA this morning. Additional isolated to scattered showers can pop up anywhere during the day, but will favor southwestern NH through central MA with the help of some upslope conditions – northeast wind being lifted by the higher terrain. Today will also be a cooler and less humid day than yesterday was. High pressure builds in tonight and Monday, eliminating any shower threat and obliterating most cloud cover, however some low elevation fog patches can form due tonight to radiational cooling allowing the temp to fall to near dew point levels. Any fog patches will dissipate early Monday as the temperature climbs away from the dew point and we have a fairly nice day, a little milder than today in general but still temperatures running on the cooler side of normal with highs well under 80. Dew points will be modest – not too dry / not too muggy. The coast will feel coolest with a light east to southeast wind evolving during the day. We may start to see more cloudiness moving into the region by evening, especially near the South Coast / south of I-90, in response to a trough and frontal boundary approaching from the west and with the help of a more southerly air flow developing ahead of this. This trough and front is going to bring us higher humidity and more unsettled weather again Tuesday into Wednesday, with my current thinking that the greatest shower threat will come in about a 24 hour period from noon Tuesday to noon Wednesday, including the chance of downpours and a low chance of thunderstorms. So as we remain vulnerable to flash flooding from heavier rain, we’ll have to keep an eye on it. Meanwhile, forecast Hurricane Franklin’s track will be between Bermuda and the US East Coast (a little closer to the former than the latter), and while it won’t really be a direct player in our forecast, it will send larger swells and rougher surf to our coastline, making it more risky to boat in the coastal waters or be in the water at the beach. Rip current risks will peak at midweek as the storm makes its closest pass before heading away into the North Atlantic. Once we rid ourselves of the trough and front on Wednesday, high pressure builds in for a nice final day of meteorological summer on Thursday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers, favoring southeastern NH and northeastern MA through mid morning, and favoring southwestern NH and central MA this afternoon. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lower elevation fog patches developing. Lows 57-64. Dew point upper 50s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny except becoming variably cloudy South Coast. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind calm early, then E-SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Fog patches forming. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog early. Showers likely mainly midday on with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely until midday, then clearing. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60s, falling to 50s late. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling to lower 50s. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Dew point 50s. Wind WNW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

This is basically the extended Labor Day Weekend outlook from Friday through Tuesday, and I’m cautiously optimistic that most of it will be nice, governed in general by high pressure which will be over the region to start, then more to the south of the region mid period, and east of the region later in the period. This pattern promotes mostly rain-free conditions, starting with low humidity and seasonable temperatures then a slight trend for warmer and more humid weather with time. Things that can “go wrong” are not out of the picture, but are low risk chances, The first is an old trough / front sliding down from Canada sometime around September 2 or 3 that could trigger a few showers. This system would likely have limited moisture to work with and not be a significant rain producer. The other wildcard is the moisture associated with current TD 10 which is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm then hurricane as it moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and makes landfall around the FL Peninsula early next week. Generally, the medium range guidance has a decent depiction of the pattern, and the overall idea is to keep this moisture shunted south of our region, but we’ve seen in the past the moisture from these make its way further north than guidance suggests, so given past history and the proximity to our region on some of the guidance, it’s worth keeping a close eye on. We will also need to watch the very end of this period (September 5), for a stronger frontal system approaching via the Great Lakes / eastern Canada. But even with all that I’ve explained and described here, the current outlook for the Labor Day Weekend (September 2-4) is mostly favorable for generally nice weather.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

A quick glance at ensemble guidance tells me not to make any changes and keep the outlook somewhat vague here with higher humidity and a shower threat early in the period, a dry interlude mid period, and more unsettled weather late period. Temperatures should exhibit day to day variation, but may average above normal for the period overall.

48 thoughts on “Sunday August 27 2023 Forecast (7:41AM)”

    1. The global guidance (both GFS & ECMWF, but especially the ECMWF) did a good job picking up and following today’s disturbance. I didn’t buy into it that much at first. SAK messaged me on the day of his weekend outlook and was putting showers in his fcst for today. I knew I could have, but leaned optimistic. Maybe this is not a good method given the pattern we’ve been in. But I finally caved and added the chance. And the chance is now the reality. 🙂 At least it’s not even close to a wash-out for anyone. 🙂

    1. As with any 3-day period in the calendar year. It has nothing specifically to do with weekends. 🙂

      It’s all coincidence really. The 2 days this summer that have been the most unsettled are Tuesday & Friday.

  11. Lest we think nature doesn’t know what she is doing….

    I just found out that monarchs are poisonous for birds and other critters to eat. The most fascinating part is they have bright orange wings in order to warn predators that they are poisonous.

  12. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2023082700&fh=282&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500wh&rh=2023082712&fh=270&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

    Winter weather enthusiasts: I’m sure long range on models have had inconsistencies forever, but in my opinion, it’s been the worst I have ever seen this summer.

    Above, 2 links, projection from same time, first from today’s 00z GFS and then the 12z GFS

    Just brutal and again, in my opinion, you can apply that starting around hr 144. Brutal inconsistencies.

    Cause I know winter weather opportunities start for the weather internet world after Labor Day, so don’t allow yourself to get too excited for anything that’s shown in the medium or long range.

    More often than not, it’s going to lead to disappointment.

    1. The model watchers will make the same mistakes they always do.: buying too much into anything beyond 4 days out. SAK, JMA, and I have said over and over, and over and over… and over …. and over ……………………….. and over. ……………………………….. and ……… (you get the idea, I don’t even have to finish this thought). 🙂

  13. I have a friend who is apartment hunting in the Norton / Taunton area. If anybody knows of anything, please post a link and I’ll pass it along. 🙂 Thanks!!

  14. Still humid outside, but a bit better.

    I am looking forward to a true and sustained break in the humidity. It won’t be long at this point.

    It’s pretty remarkable to see all the resources that have been spent on finding Loch Ness: https://www.boston.com/news/world-news/2023/08/27/with-drones-and-webcams-volunteer-hunters-join-a-new-search-for-the-mythical-loch-ness-monster/?p1=hp_secondary

    I am baffled by this. Moreover, that “undated” photo is from the 1930s. So if Nessie is out there she’s quite old. Doesn’t mean it’s impossible. After all, Greenland sharks live more than 400 years.

    1. I think “Nessie” was probably a Komodo Dragon cousin that adapted to colder climates, and is long gone. 🙂

      1. That 1930s photo has long been debunked. Nothing to see in Loch Ness and probably never was in the first place. 🙂

    2. A Belmont friend of my parents was one of the key folks involved in investigating Nessie back when I was younger. No idea what his name

  15. Today’s global guidance is continuing the idea of keeping all direct influence from tropical cyclones away from our region. Franklin is a given. Idalia was one of my wildcards in the discussion for late next week, but the guidance says nope, the GFS, the ECMWF, and even the GDPS (GoshDarnPiece-o-‘Sh**) model. 🙂

  16. Starting to the the idea that after Wednesday, we’re heading into a much drier pattern…

    1. Thanks for sharing.

      It’s been really stormy across the continent and the British Isles.

      One of the wettest summers on record in parts of Northern Europe. As autumn isn’t known for tranquility in Northern Europe – perhaps the first 3 weeks of September are the exception – the wet and stormy spell may last a very long time. I remember years like this when I lived there.

      1. This was a more persistent rainbow than I usually see. I was out for 20 minutes and it was visible the entire time.

    1. Yes. 🙂

      Teacher mtg day tomorrow, then 3 days of school Tuesday-Thursday.

      I’m thinking you’re ready too. Good luck !

  22. I been enjoying Hurricane Franklin, its been giving us a much-needed reprieve from the excessive heat the last 3 to 4 days. Been great

    Anyways seems like the MDR continues to be hostile for any developing system until it reaches north of 20N latitude.

    Also if anyone ones a bluesky account let me know I have a handful of invite codes.

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