Saturday July 19 2025 Forecast (9:40AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (JULY 19-23)

High pressure provides a candidate for a “top ten” summer day today with lots of sun, light wind, pleasant air, a coastal sea breeze – all of that stuff! Your decision on the rank! High pressure departs tonight and a disturbance approaches from the west. This is part of our transition into a faster west to northwest flow pattern. Low pressure passing to our north Sunday will provide unsettled weather, but also many hours of rain-free weather. Pay attention because here’s how I expect it to play out! In the pre-dawn to mid morning hours, a warm front will cross the region with shower activity. Some of this can be heavy, particularly toward the South Coast where some short-lived flash flooding / street flooding can occur in heavier downpours. Embedded strong to severe thunderstorms are a slight risk with this batch. Lesser coverage of showers and storms – mainly isolated to scattered – can be expected to the north in the early morning, and the activity may linger longest South Coast / Cape Cod before heading out. A “break period” between this and the arrival of a cold front will allow for at least a few and up to several hours of rain-free weather with a mix of sun and clouds across the region from late morning into much of the afternoon, after which the aforementioned cold front will send what I think will be a broken line of showers and thunderstorms across the region from northwest to southeast from late afternoon through early evening – possibly fading in strength and coverage as it gets closer to the South Coast / Cape Cod. Initially, this area will have the chance to produce some severe storms, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. Once the front passes, the threat is gone, and we’re going to be visited by a crisp, cool Canadian air mass to start next week. In fact Monday through early Tuesday might remind you a bit of September with below normal temperatures and very low dew points. We’ll see a little temperature recovery Tuesday afternoon, and a more noticeable one by Wednesday as high pressure moves offshore while very nice weather continues.

TODAY: Abundant sunshine. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point rises through 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH – coastal sea breezes likely.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Shower and thunderstorm potential increases from southwest to northeast overnight – mainly after 2:00 a.m. – with highest chance south of I-90. Lows 62-69. Dew point rises into 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH early becoming S 5-15 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms north of I-90 and numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms to the south, may linger into late morning toward Cape Cod / South Coast. Sun / cloud mix late morning into afternoon, followed by heavier clouds and a shower / thunderstorm many areas from northwest to southeast later afternoon through early evening. Highs 80-87 except 73-80 South Coast. Dew point spikes to upper 60s to lower 70s, but starts to fall from northwest to southeast late-day. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, especially afternoon. Watch for potential variable, strong, gusty winds around any storms.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 54-61. Dew point drops below 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Dew point in 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Dew point in 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point near 50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 54-61. Dew point near 50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coastal areas. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 24-28)

Central US high pressure ridge and west northwest flow over our region. July 25 and 28 are the most likely “chance of a shower or thunderstorm” days with passing disturbances, otherwise a mostly dry pattern with variable temperatures with the 5-day average generally seasonable.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Basically no change from the outlook of the period that precedes this. Variable temperatures, maybe a little more tendency for cooler from Canada with 1 or 2 chances at passing showers and thunderstorms.

71 thoughts on “Saturday July 19 2025 Forecast (9:40AM)”

    1. Thanks you. TK’s response was interesting too. I love love days like yesterday and today. But also enjoy days when we have something interesting to follow. Although I certainly don’t like severe damage.

  6. Thank you, Joshua, for your comment at the end of yesterday’s post. One of the reasons I campaigned and voted for Nixon was his views on protecting our environment.

  9. Part of the Norton NWS office discussion for tomorrow:

    The shortwave moves to the east by late morning with subsidence
    bringing a period of dry conditions. Then a cold front will be
    dropping south from northern New Eng with latest guidance pushing
    the front through SNE from NW to SE during the afternoon and
    evening. Warm and humid airmass will contribute to moderate
    instability developing in the afternoon with a second round of
    scattered showers and t-storms possible, with a risk of severe
    weather. Coverage of storms will depend on extent of any clearing
    behind morning shortwave which adds an element of uncertainty with
    how quickly the environment will recover and extent of subsequent
    convection along the cold front. Moderately sheared environment
    develops ahead of a mid level trough with 30-40 kt 0-6km shear and
    forecast CAPES are 1000-2000 J/kg. Assuming we get enough afternoon
    sunshine this environment will be supportive of scattered strong to
    severe t-storms. The main limiting factor is poor mid level lapse
    rates but this may be overcome by favorable instability/shear
    parameters and favorable timing of cold front passage with decent
    forcing for ascent which is reflected by increasing updraft helicity
    swaths from HREF. Most of the CAMs also showing a fairly active
    convective environment along the cold front and machine learning
    probs have increased severe weather threat for Sunday, with damaging
    wind the primary threat. SPC has upgraded SNE to a slight risk.
    Locally heavy rainfall will be a secondary threat given high PWAT
    airmass. Expected timing of storms will be 2-8 pm and while the best
    chance will be in the interior, storms could make it to the south
    coast late Sun or Sun evening given favorable shear.

  10. Hmmm interesting. Here is the 12Z HRRR sounding for 23Z (7PM) tomorrow for near Boston:

    https://ibb.co/Zpfhj2J5

    It is most interesting that it lists the hazard as tornado.
    I have noticed that these are typically over done, but interesting that it is there at all.

    Could be a wild day tomorrow. We shall see.

    1. Thank you, Matt. Excellent article. I wonder how the significant increased height of high tide along the northeast plays into this.

    1. You’re practically in Newfoundland. 🙂 🙂
      You’re way up there, for sure. Enjoy!!

  13. Lower 48 so far having a cooler summer than 2024.

    Don’t see much to reverse that overall trend, although the anomalies will shift geographically in the upcoming pattern.

    AP continues to push a very inaccurate story about much of the USA having a record breaking heatwave. Puzzling, and also false. I really wish I didn’t need to note that, but if media continues to be wrong then it’s my responsibility to correct them in places I communicate, because I’m about science and accuracy.

    1. Do you have a link to that ap story. I can’t find it and will definitely write to them

      And I am very happy we are not as hot as 2024. Found this.

      Climate Records:
      * Global Summer 2024 was hottest meteorological summer on record for the Northern Hemisphere and the warmest winter on record for the Southern Hemisphere, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
      * U.S. contiguous states experienced its fourth-hottest summer on record, with August 2024 tying with August 1998 as the 15th-warmest August on record.
      * The first eight months of 2024 ranked as the second-warmest year-to-date on record globally.
      * Several locations experienced record-breaking heat, including cities in Kansas, Texas, North Dakota, North Carolina, Maryland, and Maine.
      * Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement production reached a record 37.4 billion tons in 2024, according to the 2024 Global Carbon Budget report. 

    2. I found this. But it’s not a direct link. Is this what you are referring to?

      Associated Press reports on summer heat in 2025
      The Associated Press (AP) has reported extensively on the significant heat experienced across the globe during the 2025 summer season, highlighting the severe impacts and connection to climate change.
      Here’s a summary of key takeaways:
      Global temperatures
      2025 is projected to be one of the warmest years on record, potentially the second warmest.
      June 2025 was the third warmest June on record.
      Global ocean temperatures are significantly above average.
      Over the 12 months ending in June 2025, global temperatures were more than 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) higher than late 19th-century averages.
      Forecasts indicate a high probability of setting new annual temperature records and exceeding the international temperature threshold in the next five years.

      1. I have not checked any of that so it may very well be hyped. Just looking for the article to reference when I write.

      2. It just keeps showing up on my headline rolls, but with slightly different writing and focus. It’s a journalism practice basically with no valuable info. They are on my list to write to in terms of the style of news reporting and my dissatisfaction with it.

    1. Summary for our area:

      …Northeast…
      An upper trough will pivot eastward across Quebec, with cooling
      aloft from NY into New England. Low pressure will deepen into
      southern New England during the afternoon, with a cold front
      progressing southeastward across the region, and nearing the coast
      around 00Z. A moist air mass will remain ahead of the front, with
      MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg possible. This will occur beneath 40-50 kt
      midlevel westerlies, resulting in a few long-lived cells producing
      localized hail. As storm coverage maximizes during the late
      afternoon, a few small bowing structures will be possible, with
      corridors of damaging gusts as well.

      1. The broken line … bow segments. This is what I’m most concerned with tomorrow.

  16. HRRR & and somewhat RRFS has scaled back on the early morning stuff a tiny bit in terms of coverage and impact. Still looking at greatest chance of heavy rainfall being near the South Coast from that batch, but some of the guidance indicates very close to the S Coast with a lot of it staying JUST to the south, except still clipping the Cape & Islands.

    It’s really hard to rely on just that for what will happen, as it is just a simulation. But these models are designed to be reasonably accurate when you get very close to the event, so I’ll be watching the trends on them.

    I’ll be up at Salisbury Beach from about 6:00PM to 11:00PM but I can check before & after that.

    Mom is doing reasonably well – not “comfortable” but stable.

    1. Enjoy tonight. I may be wrong but believe a mutual friend shoots the Salisbury shows. Please say hi to Paul for me.

      1. Thanks for reminding me to message Paul and ask if he was indeed the lead pyrotechnician tonight! He may be busy as they load the show on the barge before they move the barge into place 1000 feet off the beach, but I’ll give it a try!

        I am going up early because the band Beatle Juice is playing the free outdoor show at 7:30. I know the guys in that band – drummer was my oldest brothers bestie. Dinny got to play a couple complete shows with the band (one at a cookout, one at Johnny D’s in Somerville). I know several people going, including one of my brothers and SIL. Should be a fun evening. 🙂

    2. Reasonably well is good news. Praying her medical team can help her find comfort very soon Please give her a big hug.

    3. TK, I have some family who will be staying overnight in Centerville. Any further thoughts later on would be welcome — they don’t check the weather much, so I like to keep an eye on things for them!

      1. The short range model I trust the most to have this reasonably accurate depicts the core of tomorrow morning’s convection stays just to the south of them and they get clipped with less intense rainfall – however it’s worth watching because it’s a close call as depicted, and only a slight error could mean the activity is further north. Nevertheless I don’t think this is a severe weather threat (wind, hail), but more a brief flood threat if the heaviest rain should pass over that region.

        The late-day stuff is in weakening mode as it passes by that area after sunset – and I don’t expect that to be more than some gusty showers. I’m not sure if they will even still be there at that time, but just in case.

  18. Watched 3 horse movies and loved them all.

    Top of the list,
    DREAMER followed by (in no particular order)
    FINE STEP
    STORM RIDER

    All three were excellent in my opinion and all 3 were somewhat different, but all good stories.

    I’d have to say that DREAMER is my all time favorite movie about horses, but there are many good ones, including

    Sea Biscuit
    Secretariat
    Rock My Heart

    I’ve never owned a horse. My cousin did at one point and someone I knew in Mills did. Always loved horses. Have ridden them several times.

    MAJESTIC animals!!!!

    1. They are truly amazing animals. They have huge hearts. Sadly, there is a lot of mishandling and abuse. I’ll share some really cool pics tomorrow

  19. Model watchers: Use the 12z ECMWF operational run with caution. Something looks off to me. I think the model may have misfired on something after about day 5 that’s messing up the rest of the simulation. I haven’t had a chance to compare to ensemble yet.

    1. “Small” being the key word. 10% through 2 days. <40% through 7.

      Gonna be a very quiet time into August in the basin.

  21. Walked down the street to CVS to pick up medication and a few other items this afternoon and I would say this is a top-10 day of the season, much like July 4th was. 🙂

    It seems that the HHH days outnumber the great days like today. Like Barry Burbank used to say “too bad we can’t bottle this and keep it all summer.” I miss him on tv. 🙂

  22. TK – I don’t like that last statement about your mother being “not comfortable.” Not very encouraging at all. We will continue to keep her in our thoughts.

    1. Thank you. It’s not terrible by any stretch. She just was really knocked down by the combination of things that happened, but that said, her progress has been above what I thought we were going to see just a handful of days ago…

  24. To TK and JpDave,

    You guys don’t understand.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    That’s a Cat 5 due to rip up the east coast and come slightly west of the BM, and then stall a little while the wind field tightens up. From there it crosses the Cape, comes up the north shore and makes a 360 clockwise loop and barrels into Boston. You guys need to tune into social media a little more often.

  25. Spectacular day. I was able to share with my older daughter, her family, and my son and family at daughters in uxbridge. We sat out for over four hours.

  26. I rode my bike 45 miles today. It’s not like when I was a teenage camp counselor and did 60 miles a day biking through NH in the late 70s. Those camping trips were awesome and tiring. But 45 miles is getting there.

    1. Wow. That is incredibly Impressive. Do you ride in Boston or head out to the suburbs. I believe Belmont is just 7 miles from Boston

  27. “Open Newbury” in Boston has been cancelled for today due to storm threat.

    That is the closing of Newbury St. to traffic for pedestrians to do their shopping.

    1. I don’t think they really had to do that … but oh well – not my decision. I suppose it depends on the # of hours.

  28. Thanks TK. Sorry I haven’t posted in a few days. We’ve been busy with a new addition, Bernese Mountain Dog named Zoya has arrived and is keeping us very busy. She’s wonderful though.

    Lovely day yesterday. Didn’t last long without the high DP but will take it.

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