Friday July 18 2025 Forecast (6:55AM)

86 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 18-22)

Refreshing Canadian air arrives today and hangs around into Saturday as high pressure builds into the region. Today will feature a gusty breeze ahead of the high, while lighter winds and coastal sea breezes will be with us Saturday as the high sits overhead. But by Saturday evening the high center shifts offshore as another trough and frontal system approach the region from the west northwest. This will produce a spike of higher humidity and a couple rounds of potential showers and thunderstorms between the pre-dawn and start of evening Sunday. That said, the day is also likely to feature many hours of rain-free conditions. That system will also be followed by a shot of Canadian air for the start of next week.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls to near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH morning-midday before settling.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point near 50. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear followed by clouds evening. Cloudy overnight with showers/thunderstorms arriving west to east. Lows 62-69. Dew point rises to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH evening increasing to 10-20 MPH overnight.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy – least sun early / more sun from midday onward. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm mainly early morning and late-day west to east. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point drops into 50s. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 56-63. Wind N under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 23-27)

No changes. Large scale pattern features a ridge in the middle of the US and our area in a northwest flow to its east. Much of this period will feature dry weather but a couple disturbances can bring passing showers / t-storms. Temperatures show typical variability but average close to normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Indications remain for a similar pattern during this period, overall a northwest flow, limited shower / t-storm chances, variable temperatures averaging not too far from normal overall.

86 thoughts on “Friday July 18 2025 Forecast (6:55AM)”

  1. On this date in 1936, 32 states reached of exceeded the century mark, and 13 of them were 110°F or higher!

    100°F in IN, LA, OH and TN
    101°F in KY and WV
    102°F in MS and VA
    103°F in IL and NY
    104°F in NM and OR
    105°F in WA and WY
    106°F in WI
    107°F in MN
    108°F in CO
    109°F in IA and UT
    110°F in ID, MT and ND
    113°F in NE
    114°F in AR
    115°F in NV and TX
    116°F in SD
    118°F in MO
    120°F in OK
    121°F in AZ
    121°F in KS
    125°F in CA

    Notes…
    The high of 121°F in Fredonia, Kansas set a new state record that has not been broken, but has been tied once – just six days after it was set (7/24/1936) in Alton!
    The high of 120°F on Alva, Oklahoma was also the record high for the state which remains unbroken, HOWEVER, was tied THREE MORE TIMES in the SAME SUMMER, when Altus, Oklahoma hit it on July 19 1936, Poteus, Oklahoma hit it on August 10 1936, and Altus hit it yet again on August 12 1936!

  2. Good morning and thank you TK

    Made 89 here yesterday. Didn’t quite make 90.
    Dp as high as 76 again but most of the day it was 74.

    74 overnight

    currently 75 with dp 62.

    Noticeably better. Waiting for the drop into the 50s.

  3. Made wordle in 5 today. A word that was NOT know to me. Had to look it up. Well, at least I learned something. 🙂

    1. I got it in three, and also looked it up. I kind of knew what it was, but I wasn’t sure.

      I could also believe that it’s a word invented by Dr, Seuss.
      🙂

    2. Three for me too. But only because I had five letters with one in correct spot after my first two guesses. Also looked it up

      1. Wow! I thought I did great to get it in 5!! Guess NOT so great!
        I am almost ready to give up! It might have helped IF I were
        familiar with the word, which I was NOT!!

        My brain is not well suited for this game it appears.

  5. As a scientist, I have spoken about this many times, and as a community we should be talking about it (and learning from it) for years to come, and NOT blindly dismissing it as “no big deal”, or any similar phrase. As I said, we’ll be learning the effects of this event for a long, long time, and it’s a grand opportunity for science.

    https://x.com/severeweatherEU/status/1945959626693869928

    Thank you to the colleague who sent that to me!

    1. Thank you. I am not sure I am accessing the entire article. I only see a graph and comment re stratosphere. Folks I’ve chatted with all mention our water doesn’t come from stratosphere. I’d like to find a research article on how added water vapor in stratosphere impacts the troposphere

      1. We are still in the process of learning that since it just happened three years ago.

        It will be a process of several years to learn the full impact. I’m excited to learn about it.

        1. I agree. I’m not sure we are at the point that any events can be attributed to H-HT but definitely think it’s fascinating to follow the science….my mind has always worked that way and decades with a scientist sure sharpened that tendency.

    1. NPR and PBS being defunded. I don’t even have to open your link to understand the reason.

  8. 78, dp 61 here. BEAUTIFUL!!!! Now just to get that dp
    under 60! DP 56 at Worcester, so it is out there,

    DP 60 at the airport.

    1. Very nice. Just in time for an outdoor coffee today and a get together tomorrow evening.

          1. I leave Monday and it looks like Monday through Wednesday temps in the mid to upper 80s dew points in the mid 60s which will feel comfortable compared to what it has been like here most of this month. Then Thursday and Friday back to typical Virginia weather low 90s dew points over 70. This is nothing compared to about seven years ago when I was there and temps were in the mid 100s and feels like temps mid to upper 110s. To this day that is still the most intense heat I have ever experienced.

    1. 70??? Are you on top of a mountain???

      Seriously, what is your elevation? 70 just seems rather low.

      76 here, dp 59

      dis someone say AHHHHHHHH!!!!!

        1. 420, well that is some elevation. I guess this is a more cooler air mass than I thought. My temperature has been holding steady or even dropping a bit. 🙂

  13. Thanks, TK.

    To me it is anything but refreshing air. This said, it’s marginally better. I did run outdoors for the first time in a while. Feel quite nauseated, but heck that’s summer nausea and it’s been with me for years. It’s also due to GERD. I can’t wait until dewpoints in the 40s and below. My nausea pretty much goes away, miraculously.

      1. AS well as the rest of us. Some pretty decent parameters this far out. We shall see.

  19. It looks like warm front showers and thunderstorms in the morning on Sunday then a break before the cold front later in the day with another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms.

    1. I suppose that real action will depend upon how much debris is left over and how much destabilization can occur. We’ve seen it before.

      I have to keep reminding myself to be CAREFUL what I wish for.
      I get excited by severe weather events, but it can be horrific for
      those affected.

  20. If the sun comes out after the warm front showers and thunderstorms passes that will further destabilize the atmosphere and could make things interesting later in the day on Sunday when the cold front approaches. The good news after Sunday three real nice summer days with comfortable levels of humidity.

  22. Just back from coffee with two dear friends at close to if not the highest elevation in Sutton. 706 ft. And it is a glorious day to sit out. Not sure of temp there. But if it is humid, I sure didn’t feel it.

  23. Vicki, I do think that in an urban setting there is some trapping of heat and humidity. But I’m just supersensitive to dewpoints above 50/55. I long for the days when I wasn’t as sensitive to rising dewpoints. But that was decades ago.

    The good news is that my nausea subsides by afternoon. It’s usually a morning thing. It’s as if I’m pregnant, except of course I’m not. Meds do not touch it. I’ve tried them all. Diet doesn’t change a thing. I eat a very healthy diet. Humidity exacerbates the problem, I’d say threefold if I can quantify it. This could be related to the vagus nerve, but no-one knows or can know, frankly.

    1. Interesting. Nausea has been bugging me lately. Humidity never bothered me either. I do have a script for nausea for times that kidney stones act up. It works best. But mostly I use ginger pills. Mac’s Dana oncologist recommended them.

    2. You sound like my wife. She gets physically ill in the heat and humidity and like you, it doesn’t have to be dew points of 75. Anything 60 and above does her in.

  24. TK I saw your comment earlier saying you are interested in how Sunday will play out. When you say something like that it gets my interest.

    1. I get the impression that Sunday could possibly be the WORST day of the summer so far other than the day of the South Shore floods. Not to mention DP’s in the low 70s…YUCK!!!!!!

      Could Sunday be a complete “washout”?

      1. Not sure where you keep getting this idea of Sunday being that brutal. It’s not going to be the worst day of the summer. It’s not going to be a washout. Look at my discussion. I post them daily. 🙂

        1. Well, the tv met on Ch. 7 have 73F DP for Sunday. I haven’t seen any 60 DP’s from any others.

          Not that I want 70+ DP’s but why do you believe that they won’t be particularly high?

          1. I think we can peak in the 68-72 range for DP’s, so yes someone can break 70 for a while, but I only think that would last for up to a few hours. I think the majority of the day’s hours will features dew points sub-70 for most of the region, with just a brief spike of 70+ potentially. Some guidance has the cold front through the region prior to mid afternoon with the dew point already dropping. This is a very valid possibility.

  25. Won’t be a complete washout. At the moment looks like two rounds of showers and thunderstorms. One in the morning with the warm front. The other late day with the cold front. After that it looks like three great summer days with comfortable levels of humidity.

    1. Correct.

      I’ve seen some “futurecast” projections on a few stations that should not be shown, because clearly they are going to be incorrect. The meteorology of the set-up does not support an all day rain. I am pretty sure they were GFS animations – which in my book is a big “no-no” … That’s the quickest way to misrepresent the rainfall. It turns 6 hour rainfall into projected radar, for one thing, so there’s a huge disconnect into what’s being shown and what it’s supposed to represent.

      At worst, it supports up to a few hours of showers in the morning (maybe early enough that most of it comes before and around sunrise) and a quick-hitting shower or storm later on.

      I think at LEAST 75% of Sunday is rain-free in any given location.

      1. Actually, Ch. 7 has 70% chance for rain for the entire day, assuming I read the graph correctly.

        1. A 70% chance of rain the entire day does not mean a 70% chance that it will rain for the entire day. It means that there would be a 70% chance of rain at any given time.

          That said, I disagree with it. There’s probably about a 75% chance of rain for the first few hours of the morning, a 25% chance between that and about a 50% chance of a later afternoon shower or storm. I cannot justify putting a uniform percentage chance on a meteorological set-up which features a passing trough containing a disturbance that sends a warm front through early in the day and a cold front late in the day, and then adding in the specifics of the set-up as depicted by reliable short range guidance.

  27. Dew point down to 50 at Logan. Bone dry. Just as expected. Very much like July 4th.

  28. RRFS commentary…briefly…

    I generally like the NAM’s replacement, but I do think it may overdo the precipitation coverage a little too much. With convection, it seems to overdo the coverage based on anvil rainfall that doesn’t necessarily reach the surface. So a tweak may be needed there.

  29. Difficult stretch for the Sox, which basically extends through early August: 4 first place teams during this period. If they can tread water and go, say, 8 and 8, I’ll be happy. We’ll see what happens. It’s sports. Entertainment. Not life or death. At least the Sox look to be in the playoff hunt for the foreseeable future. As I’ve said before, that’s my litmus test for all the teams I support. If they can entertain and contend in some way, shape or form for a post-season appearance, great. Actual championships are the big cherries on top.

  30. Looks like those media hype stories using the name Dexter for a system that barely had a 40% chance of becoming a depression didn’t age well.

    NO tropical development next 7 days.

    This will be a very quiet stretch through the rest of July and into August as well.

  31. And while I’m on the subject, it’s pretty quiet for tropicals around the world.

    The southern hemisphere (South Indian Ocean) did see its first tropical cyclone of the season, which is a bit early but not unheard of. It was a weak system over water and is dissipating now.

    The Western North Pacific has TS Wipha which was a typhoon at one point, but it basically was a water traveller, over the Strait of Luzon in the Phillipines and is now approaching the South China Coast, kind of paralleling it, as a weakening tropical storm.

    The Central North Pacific is quiet.

    The Eastern North Pacific has one disturbance over open water with little change of development.

    The Atlantic, as stated above, is zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

  32. Near Sydney, Canada way up on the north side of Cape Breton Island it’s 63F with a DP of 54F.

    Most comfortable air of the trip so far. Feels great !!!!!!!

    1. Mac worked closely with the epa. He had a love hate relationship with the agency. The work, the documentation, the accountability was stressful. But not once did he ever believe the end result was not worth every second.

      FWIW…..I know of a very serious violation ……very…that the agency caught and stopped.

  35. JR’s final thoughts on Sunday’s dp = 73

    We’ve been experiencing Florida-type dew points much of this summer so far it seems.

    YUUCK!!!

    2. We really haven’t if you look at all the data. There was one solid stretch of 70+ that lasted about 3 1/2 days.

      Previous to that there were several instances of dp peaking 70+ and many days in the 60s. Given we had a solid DRY stretch early in the month and June was not particularly nasty, no Florida in New England. Just some humid weather, like we get every summer. 🙂

  36. This morning AJ has dew point temps staying in the 60s for tomorrow. Not great but better than 70+.

    1. Upper 60s to lower 70s peak, depending on location, and not for very long.

  37. Vicki, thanks for chiming in on the EPA. It’s interesting that Mac worked with them. I agree with your assessment.

    I am sure the EPA has its faults. All organizations, whether government or private, do.

    I’m at a loss, however, about gutting one of its main missions. The EPA was established by Richard Nixon, who aside from some foibles (I’m being sarcastic) was a moderate Republican who cared about the environment.

    The hollowing out of research and basic science occurring throughout the federal government will eventually haunt us.

    I sometimes hear folks saying that the private sector will make up for the major gaps in research funding. First of all, this is blatantly false. There just isn’t nearly as much money in the private sector for research. I know. My colleagues and I applied for grants. My siblings are all in medical research. They apply for grants. Second, private sector funding – even when it comes from a philanthropic foundation – either comes with strings attached or a research agenda and bias. They’re generally not interested in objective data. The federal government usually is. It’s why we (as editors of peer-reviewed journals – I work as senior editor at two) – trust research funded by government more than we do private corporations.

    This is not to say government has no agenda. It does. And that historically that agenda changes somewhat from administration to administration. But what we’re witnessing isn’t incremental or moderate changes in focus. It’s kind of a Bolshevik takedown of the edifice supporting science.

  39. Great call JpDave.
    SPC will update the outlook for tomorrow around 130 this afternoon.

    1. Looking forward to that.

      One thing, the models that hinted at tornado possibilities, have backed off, but not on the severe possibilities.

      1. Tomorrow is not a tornado set-up, but it is a potential damaging straight line wind gust set-up, especially the late-day stuff.

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